Long Run...how long is the long run.

[seykid29]

Concerning money management debate,i was saying money management,good strategy,discipline will get you through.But in what order,that is for you to decide.

[Dr.Hubert]

Sorry, but no it won't.

[seykid29]

So what is your view?

[seykid29]

DR. Hubert,It seems you are quite a pro or semi-pro by your way of writing.

[Danger Man]

4000 bet decision= long run and the long run is not just a set  totaling all the bet decisions with REAL MONEY

What happens if I play more than 4000 decisions? Am I in the very long term, the extremely long term, the exceedingly long term, the massive long term, the huge long term, the epic long term, the gargantuan long term? Every outcome you ever observe is part of a player's individual long term, thinking it can be defined in any way is preposterous.  Everyone is always in the long term.   

[aegil]

definition of long run in infinity (or lifetime in a man point of view) seem very accurate to me, but disturbing.  Because even if someone have a HG, he just can't claim that he can beat the roulette in long run.

So two question: virtually, for how much spin do you need to stay positif for saying that, at least, roulette don't have beat you long run.

And pratically, how much spin before you go from test play to real money play ?

[TwoCatSam]

Think in do-able sessions.

I tested a method for a million or more spins before I started betting real Euro on it.

Sam

[Marven]

I don't know when will people stop stating numbers of "tested spins" and use number of placed bets.

And pratically, how much spin before you go from test play to real money play ?

Personally I would require a minimum 10,000 placed flat bets with a +3 SD. I would break the 10k sample into 2 or 3 samples and make sure such advantage is present in all of them.

[TwoCatSam]

Marven

The way I'm playing, three bets are placed each spin.  I should have said I tested over a million spins.  Or did I test a million spins three times?  Anyway..........

Nothing matters except volatility anyway.  The long and short runs simply don't matter.  The only reason I test anything anymore is to determine the volatility.  This is what a million spins with three bets each has taught me.

Sam

[Marven]

Sam,

I get the impression you're betting the three EC's simultaneously, each bet/spin. If that is the case then you have 3 million placed bets. So when/if you calculate your edge or SD (actually z-score) you should multiply your number of bets per 3 in the formula.

E.g.

[tex]SD=P/sqrt(B*3)[/tex]

Where:

P: Total profits (flat betting)
B: Number of placed bets

2.5 SD is good, 3 is very good, over 3 is excellent.

As for the edge, here's the simple formula:

[tex](P/(B*3))*100[/tex]

This will give you your edge in %

Notice that I'm multiplying B by 3 since you're presumably betting 3 EC's simultaneously.

-----------------------

Example:

Suppose one has these test results:

10,000 placed flat bets
Betting 3 EC's simultaneously each bet
+562 Profit

Therefore:

SD: 3.2
Edge: +1.8%

The results are statistically significant. Other tests (such as chi square tests) can also be used for confirmation.
The edge is rather small so a proper bankroll must be used. I would suggest proportional betting, with 2% of BR invested on each bet.

[Marven]

@Victor,

Why is the name of the thread automatically quoted under each image or formula posted?

[Dr.Hubert]

The catch is that's he's probably running an up as you lose progression that starts at one penny.

I think you need to specify that it also needs to show that it can profit flat betting.

[TwoCatSam]

Marven

Thank you for that, but it is all over my head.  I posted a thread under testing which should--well, let's just say the excrement may hit the ventilation device!!

I do know that all that matters to me at this time is volatility or dispersion or concentration--whatever one wishes to call it.  For almost five months I've noticed a trend that never wavered.  I've studied it extensively for the months of November and thus far into December using two computers running 24/7 except for the time I'm on here and other places.  

I watched the movie on the electron behaving differently when being watched vs not being watched.  That assumes an electron is some type of sentient being!  Shy, perhaps!  Can we believe these physicists?  Where they from?  MIT?  If we can believe in a bashful electron, well, I can believe the electrons in a roulette wheel have a memory.

Geez, I can believe anything!!

Sam

[Lanky]

Get the edge first,

And how exactly would You describe what it is that gives You that edge Dr.Hubert .

Lanky.

[Davey-Jones]

Why not ask him for his pin code while you are at it Lanky? 

[Davey-Jones]

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