Higher BR?

[Mr J]

This is more my point. We'll say we have player 'A' and player 'B'.

Both players are flat bettors.

Both start playing at the same time, same table.

Both will be using the SAME method.

Both have a win goal of $600.

We have all read hundreds of times, the LONGER you stay playing, the HA catches up to you and you're DOOMED! Ok, I guess so.

One player has a BR of $500, using $15 units. The other player has a BR of $5,600, using $200 units.

ONE player only needs plus THREE units, then go home. The other player needs plus FORTY units before he can go home.

He is kind of screwed because he needs to PLAY LONGER.

Ken

[birdhands]

The problem here is that the guy with the smaller BR has a win-goal disproportionate to his BR.  His bet should be more like $20 and his win-goal more like $60.

[Mr J]

You use the word 'should' and I do agree. However, MOST (not all) of the goofs will not be happy with $60 but MOST (not all) WILL walk in with under $500. Thats the issue, thats my point. They will still have an ok win goal, $400-$600 but they have to play LONGER. In my opinion, they are fu***d. I only need to be ahead THREE units on the EC's in 315 spins (est.) *AND* if I am really getting bored and need to leave, I'll take +2 units ($400). Not terrible.

Ken

[bombus]

Both players will also be exposed to drawdowns.

With big drawdowns the higher bankroll player could end up at the table longer than the lower bankroll player.

[Nathan Detroit]

Both are under capitalized to launch a  major  attack  against the  casino. The higher BR player requires  a  bankroll of $ 18,000.-- and the lower bankroll player of  $ 1, 800.-- .

The  higher BR  can shoot for a  smaller WG which knowledgeable  experienced okayer know already .

I am a firm believer in a proper bankroll based upon this  formula. Nothing will ever alter my  point of view.I am long enough at the tables.

A proper bankroll is  based  upon the table minimum OR the  average  bet wagered.

Not to forget to play only EC   where   the " en prison "  or" le  partage." rule is being  offered.

N.D.

[Mike]

I was curious about this so I ran a simulation. With a 28 unit bank, ($5,600 @ 1u = $200) and a win goal of +3 units in a session of maximum length 315 spins, the results of 100,000 such sessions were (single zero wheel) :

% of sessions won = 78.580%
% of sessions lost = 11.869% (lost all 28 unit bank)
% of sessions which reached 315 spins without a definitive outcome = 9.551%

I re-ran the simulation with the bank cut to half (14 units instead of 28, with the same win goal of +3). The results in this case were:

% of sessions won = 19.447%
% of sessions lost = 58.899% (lost all 14 unit bank)
% of sessions which reached 315 spins without a definitive outcome = 21.654%

Naturally, in both cases the results were negative. In the long term all you're really doing is trading one parameter off against another, but it's surprising how much more likely it is that you'll win with the higher bank.

[schoenpoetser]

It is a interested riddle.The ratio lost and win is the same.On the long they shall lost the whole starting capital.If the bet ECs the game lasted  2 times longer if they bet other chances.If every spin is a lost  ,player A has 33 spins and player B has 28 spins.Because the ratio is the same  Player B bust first.Player A has the best chance to be the winner.

[Mr J]

Where is the line drawn? We'll say $5 units, 2K BR, 450 total spins for the day and we'll say the win goal is $5 (1 unit), then quit. Betting based on catching a streak. Sooo, 1 unit per day?? Anybody who says it cant be done, I smell a challenge. I only need to be ahead ONE unit in 450 spins, for 'X' number of sessions.

Ken

[Mike]

Ken, it doesn't matter how many spins you have in a session, you can break it down however you like and it won't make any difference.

Here's the simulation of your scenario (400 units bank, session length 450 spins max, target +1 unit):

% of sessions won = 93.079%
% of sessions lost = 0%
% of sessions which reached 450 spins without a definitive outcome = 6.921%

Of these last, 11 reached 450 spins in a break even situation, the other 6908 were in a loss, ie; you were left with less than your original 400 unit bank. If you subtract the total losses of all these sessions from the 93,079 units you made in the winning sessions, the result is negative, even though you never lost your entire bank in any one session.

The only way to win is if you can somehow find  a bet selection which on average, wins more than it loses. Thinking that you MUST be able to win if your target is small enough in relation to your bankroll is a fallacy. I used to believe the same thing but all the test results were the same; no matter how many winning sessions there were, even if there were 99.9% or more (using a progression) the total losses in the losing sessions always cancelled out the wins and more.

[Mr J]

But how are you coming up with the math not knowing how/when/why a player would choose a certain EC?

Ken

[I have cookies]

But how are you coming up with the math not knowing how/when/why a player would choose a certain EC?

Ken

There is no difference - how would your way of play produce a higher hit ratio then any other method or have less downswings then any other way of play.

[Mr J]

I answered that ALREADY but hang on......

[I have cookies]

I answered that ALREADY but hang on......

Well i have 1 hour then i have my friends over for dinner - but feel free to show me where you wrote about it - i would like to know your opinion or how you think.

Cheers

[Mr J]

Let me ask the question this way. We have player 'A' and player 'B'.

Both players are interested in playing the last outcome of red/black or odd/even.

Lets say it looks like this >> RLRLLLRLRRLRL  (L is black)  Player 'A' (the idiot) is a hardnose and sticks to the last color regardless of anything. Player 'B' starts to see its getting CHOPPY and switches to odd/even OR takes a short break, no betting.

Are you gonna tell me BOTH players, using two different styles are going to have roughly the same results at the end of the day or the end of the month?

Ken

[I have cookies]

Let me ask the question this way. We have player 'A' and player 'B'.

Both players are interested in playing the last outcome of red/black or odd/even.

Lets say it looks like this >> RLRLLLRLRRLRL  (L is black)  Player 'A' (the idiot) is a hardnose and sticks to the last color regardless of anything. Player 'B' starts to see its getting CHOPPY and switches to odd/even OR takes a short break, no betting.

Are you gonna tell me BOTH players, using two different styles are going to have roughly the same results at the end of the day or the end of the month?

Ken

I see it like this as we talk about A and B - that there is about time and placed bets that will show who fail first.
As if you pick different position using any kind of formations or triggers you only delay your amount of placed bets and will lose less for the moment - but at the end you should have the same hit ratio as A as FLT and DBL is the same thing.
And if you change even money position how do you know that it wont get the same way as your previous distribution - is there a difference ?

Cheers

[I have cookies]

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