Greeting to all,
I'd like to start a series of discussions on trending and i thought some of you might be interested by real examples from players who think this is a viable tactic.
I'll publish several series of decisions by multiple of 70 hands representing a typical shoe and i'll ask you how you'd bet using a flat-bet amount. I have asked gr8player to participate so let's see how it turns out.
Everyone is welcome to test their trending skills. Of course, you should try to explain what it is you are trying to capture. What kind of arrangement of B/P are you trying to exploit?
[colorsb]Here is the first shoe #1
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
P
P
P
P[/colorsb]
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 11, 2009, 02:18:28 PM
Greeting to all,
I'd like to start a series of discussions on trending and i thought some of you might be interested by real examples from players who think this is a viable tactic.
I see that you're going to use Baccarat as the example. I'm going to begin work on incorporating copied spins to the clipboard to my current charting system, so that I can test this. I only want to talk about, discuss, trending. For instance, I track 10 separate groups of dozens, four of witch are disk based, the other six table layout based. I also track the six double streets. In all that I'm cognitive of singles and doubles in every tracked grouping. Before each bet I compare different groups to see if one group suggest the likelihood of a single or double in another grouping. I switch between betting on singles or doubles in 30, 26, 24, or 12 numbers bet on per selection per spin at a time. I also guess the absence of a section that appears dormant in order to combine a bet that includes singles and doubles. Now I've trained myself to do this for years. I only do this. I don't wonder off on a new tactic because that takes me off concentration of the entire data flow. I'm above average in intelligence so this method of tracking does not fatigue me. I believe I can do this better than most gamblers because I have trained myself to do it, like a musician, and I have the capacity to not fall behind with it. They say that it's easy to fall behind the data flow of a modern jet fighter plane. That can get you killed. The same thing can happen with data flow in Roulette, if you have the instruments to produce that data flow that is.
So the tests are not that important to me. Being challenged, here on an open forum, to determine if I'm lying or not, is pointless to me. I can discuss part of what I do without divulging everything that I do. I can't infuse intelligence to others. You, Arte, and I are wired opposites in our differing tracking styles. It has always been difficult for me to follow your style. I also believe that you are above average intelligence level and that you are an absolute quick study of your own charting technique. You should be a fantastic player with these assets. Your interests in detection and recognition are a welcome sign these days. BTW, I love ribbing you too.
Glad to hear from you Gizmotron and welcome into this new décor. You can bring all that you want to the dinning room ;) There is a cup of wine for you.
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 11, 2009, 03:34:52 PM
;) There is a cup of wine for you.
I'll drink to that.
Are there any more trenders and pattern observers here?
Welcome mistarlupo,
Note that it's not intended to be a challenge but more a type of exploration as a trend can represent many things for different persons. Winning a couple of units each session we play is the ultimate goal. I am presently focusing my attention mainly on clumping arrangement which spontaneously emerges as a way to capture a trend.
I never could get the hang of trends, every time I try to exploit one, it dries up. >:(
However, I do like trends, if only because without them there would be no anti-trends, and I prefer to target the "maturity of chances" opportunities. The first thing I noticed about your shoe, Arte, was that it's very choppy - no streak greater than 2 in the first 30 hands or so. Earlier on in the shoe I'd bet against a previous streak length being repeated (looking at both sides separately). I'd notice the choppiness and round about hand 25 I'd start betting FTL, using a mild positive progression. All in all, I made 9 units. I look for patterns all the time, and also for patterns within patterns. Mostly I play roulette though, tracking all 3 EC simultaneously, that way it's easy to spot intersections of sets.
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 11, 2009, 05:03:52 PM
I am presently focusing my attention mainly on clumping arrangement which spontaneously emerges as a way to capture a trend.
I don't want to create this, but I once suggested a construct or a kind of lexicon of "clumping arrangements" to establish a syntax of text based words. You could create a computer program to find these words in a continuous stream of letters representing B or P. You could verify by checking for each form of a trends basic construction and repetition. A data stream would be without empty space or white spacing, BPPBBPPBBBBPBPBPBPPP etc...
Just an idea that I don't want to blow any brain cells on. I thought that the best way to do this would be to build a parent script, OOPs, that could use inheritance to check thousands of groupings and like in Roulette thousands of more groups to be tested for similar pattern groupings. This would be a perfect job for a computer. The line break in your charts makes it hard to see continuous symmetry at a glance. You have to imagine it, I think. At least at a casino while tracking that is. Too bad we can't take a computer into a casino.
Quote from: Bliss on January 11, 2009, 05:17:19 PM
...The first thing I noticed about your shoe, Arte, was that it's very choppy - no streak greater than 2 in the first 30 hands or so. Earlier on in the shoe I'd bet against a previous streak length being repeated (looking at both sides separately). I'd notice the choppiness and round about hand 25 I'd start betting FTL, using a mild positive progression. All in all, I made 9 units. I look for patterns all the time, and also for patterns within patterns. Mostly I play roulette though, tracking all 3 EC simultaneously, that way it's easy to spot intersections of sets.
[colorsb]
The one constant in that shoe that jumps at me is this formation:
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
or filtered :
P
P
P
P
In other words, if you'd have bet B after the last P each time this formation occured then you'd have won +7 units:
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
B +1
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B +1
B
P
P
B
P
B +1
B
P
P
B
P
B +1
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
B
B
P
B +1
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B +1
P
P
B
P
B +1
B
P
B
P
P
P
P
P
P[/colorsb]
Gizmo, maybe you're aware of this already but there's an entire branch of machine learning (data mining) dedicated to "cluster analysis" - nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_clustering (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_clustering)
also you might be interested in checking out this book on data mining which includes algorithms for cluster analysis, plus many other data mining techniques:
nolinks://nolinks.team509.com/download/docs/AI/data%20mining/Morgan.Kaufmann.Data.Mining.Practical.Machine.Learning.Tools.and.Techniques.Second.Edition.Jun.2005.eBook-DDU.pdf (nolinks://nolinks.team509.com/download/docs/AI/data%20mining/Morgan.Kaufmann.Data.Mining.Practical.Machine.Learning.Tools.and.Techniques.Second.Edition.Jun.2005.eBook-DDU.pdf)
It's pretty good and doesn't assume you're a math whiz, also there's accompanying software.
Quote from: Bliss on January 11, 2009, 05:48:57 PM
Gizmo, maybe you're aware of this already but there's an entire branch of machine learning (data mining) dedicated to "cluster analysis" - nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_clustering (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_clustering)
I am aware of it. There's this too: nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern_recognition (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern_recognition)
I've been doing this stuff since 1999 when I experimented with my own ideas for the future use of XML. I invented my own pull-parser for non-hierarchy type data structures, that method used pattern recognition and position as the primary form of structuring. In this way I was able to throw away the common database and the table structuring associated with relational databases. I've been a maverick ever since.
My way of finding a trend is by applying multiple filters to a stream and look for order or repetition of a particular pattern. A pattern can be applied to one side or both sides. I usually try to look how gaps between occurrences of the same type develop such as Single - Gap - Run - Gap - Single. This was the filter i used in my example above.
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 11, 2009, 06:06:37 PM
My way of finding a trend is by applying multiple filters to a stream and look for order or repetition of a particular pattern. A pattern can be applied to one side or both sides. I usually try to look how gaps between occurrences of the same type develop such as Single - Gap - Run - Gap - Single. This was the filter i used in my example above.
Yeah, and it worked for you. I'm always fascinated with other's selection of a premise. There is a value in being comfortable with your own groupings and your conclusions regarding your guessing. Sometimes, when I can't see a pattern, an over all dominance of one side is sitting right there in front of me. So I just go after that for a while. It always comes down to when change happens.
Hello Arty
Result of testing shoe from u
[colorsb]
P
B
P.. w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .w
P.. w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. w
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .w
P.. w
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. w
B.. .. .w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. w
B.. .. .w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. w
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .l
P.. l
B.. .. .w
P.. w
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .l
B.. .. .w
P.. l
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .w
P.. w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
P.. l
B.. .. .w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
B.. .. .l
P.. w
P.. l
P.. l
P.. w
P.. w
P.. w
[/colorsb]
l=27 w= 39
Cheers
Win1win2
Bets without fear many WinsWINsWIns are here.
Hello Mr. Win,
Would you mind explaining what you tried to capture in this arrangement of B/P?
[colorsb]Hello to all,
In a baccarat game there are billions of combination in 72hands
BUT if u put them in groups there are only 3 patterns.
namely :
[A] single...... BPBPB
[B] double .... BBPPBBPP
[C] groups of 2 or more....... BBBBBB
That was how the shoe was played trying to trap
either one of this patterns.
Cheers
Win1win2
[/colorsb]
Quote from: win1win2
...BUT if u put them in groups there are only 3 patterns.
[colorsb]
If it was so simple it would be great, is it not ?
What about PPB or BBP ? Over simplifying is like over complicating.
[/colorsb]
[colorsb]
Hi ARTY
<What about PPB or BBP ? Over simplifying is like over complicating>
The starting point for the runs of.... 2x2 is..... ppb...b
The starting point for the runs of....Chops is..... pbp...b
The starting point for the runs of....Steak is...... ppp...p
do check on the example shoe played
This bet selection will not beat the game but it optimises the
win cycles into profits.
This kind of bet selection is not meant for flat bets.
With a strong Attack Betting the first few losses
can be easily recovered by the winning cycle
Cheers
win1win2
bets without fear many winswinswins are here
[/colorsb]
QuoteThis bet selection will not beat the game but it optimises the win cycles into profits.
[colorsb]Then if i read correctly, it is not better than 49% ? Why don't you just bet B all the way through, mathematically speaking it is the optimal way to bet.
PPBPPBPPBPPBPPPBBPBBBPPBBPBBPBBPPBBPBB[/colorsb]
BTW, what is your progression scheme ? A fibonacci ?
Hi Arty
<BTW, what is your progression scheme ? A fibonacci ?>
Here is a short abstract on how to gamble;
How to Gamble If You Must
Kyle Siegrist
Department of Mathematical Sciences
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Abstract
In red and black, a player bets, at even stakes, on a sequence of inde-
pendent games with success probability p, until she either reaches a ¯xed
goal or is ruined. In this article we explore two strategies: timid play in
which the gambler makes the minimum bet on each game, and bold play
in which she bets, on each game, her entire fortune or the amount needed
to reach the target (whichever is smaller). We study the success proba-
bility (the probability of reaching the target) and the expected number of
games played, as functions of the initial fortune. The mathematical analy-
sis of bold play leads to some exotic and beautiful results and unexpected
connections with dynamical systems. Our exposition (and the title of the
article) are based on the classic book Inequalities for Stochastic Processes;
How to Gamble if You Must, by Lester E. Dubbins and Leonard J. Savage.
With timid play, the gambler makes a small constant bet on each game until
she is ruined or reaches the target. This turns out to be a very bad strategy in
unfair games, but does have the advantage of a relatively large expected number
of games. If you play this strategy, you will almost certainly be ruined, but at
least you get to gamble for a while.
With bold play, the gambler bets her entire fortune or what she needs to
reach the target, whichever is smaller. This is an optimal strategy in the unfair
case; no strategy can do better. But it's very quick! If you play this strategy,
there's a good chance that your gambling will be over after just a few games
(often just one!).
Amazingly, bold play is not uniquely optimal in the unfair case. Bold play
can be rescaled to produce an in¯nite sequence of optimal strategies. These
higher order bold strategies can have large expected numbers of games, depend-
ing on the initial fortune (and assuming that the casino is nice enough to allow
you to make the weird fractional bets that will be required for the strategy).
However the point of this article is not to make you a better gambler (in
spite of the title), but to uncover some beautiful mathematics. The study of bold
Hope it will help u to construst a powerful progression
WIN1win2
HI ARTY,
This is just a suggestion:
An invitation to test your trending ability LIVE in Chat window
[once a week or 2 times a week]
.
So players who really like to improve their betting skill can log in
to c if the bet Selection and mm is really up to what they say.
If u c me online i want to demon. a live shoe
using Power Attack Betting [my name for it]
short e.g.[colorsb]
P
B
w1 P
T
L4 P
L3 B
W4 P
W25 B
W46 P
ANOTHER PATTERN
P
P
T
w1 P
L4 B
W3 P
L16 P
W5 P
W36 P
[ this is just a short e.g. using PAB ]
[/colorsb]
All bets have fixed rules
all units bet have fixed calculation
The win target is:
win 100u
bankroll 500u
Cheers
WIN1WIN2
bets without fear many winswinswins are here.
Hi Arte
Here is how i transformed your shoe into a trend :
The X´s and O´s represent Two ways of playing A system i Designed its based on the 4 Stage RB count
and when you draw a simple Point and Figure Chart you get nice trends with indicators when to bet what and when you should switch the trend and also when you should stop betting but only 54 bets qualified so in total we would have placed 54 bets (aggressive)
with an aggressive way of playing we would have made a profit of +16
with a more safer way we would have made a profit of +8
and with the safest way of playing this trend we would have ended up with a profit of +6
X
XOX
XO O
X X O
X XO O
X XO OX X X
X XO O O OX X
XO O O X X X
O X O XO O
OX X X OX X
O O O O O
if youre interrested i post some more info related to this .. till then send another shoe ;)
cheerz
Hello Breeze88,
Thanks for your idea.I have used point and figure charting extensively during my years trading the futures,stock indexes and forex market.It's interesting to see you applies it in roulette as well.I followed the 4 stage RB count and still testing it.By the way could you please kindly explain further your entry and exit timing in relation to this matter.Do you plot the RB or do you plot from the outcome of the 4 stage RB count.If you plot from the latter could you please illustrate how to do it.Thank you very much.
Regards
sniper
Hi Sniper
Quote from: sniper on February 01, 2009, 10:47:35 AM
Hello Breeze88,
Thanks for your idea.I have used point and figure charting extensively during my years trading the futures,stock indexes and forex market.It's interesting to see you applies it in roulette as well.
Good to hear that you have used chart techniques for several years because with the abbilitys you have you could take this way of playing onto a new level , because i for myself havent scratcht the surface when it comes to analyzing chart techniques , i have read two books about forex and CFD´s , but never really traded.... but i liked the fact that its possible to take the techniques of charting onto roulette and Baccarat , so i think that you could improve this idea even more..
Quote from: sniper on February 01, 2009, 10:47:35 AM
please kindly explain further your entry and exit timing in relation to this matter.Do you plot the RB or do you plot from the outcome of the 4 stage RB count.If you plot from the latter could you please illustrate how to do it.Thank you very much.
To that i can say i use the simpliest indicators that are also been used in the Stock charting wich you can see here
nolinks://nolinks.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_figure_chart_patterns.php (nolinks://nolinks.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_figure_chart_patterns.php)
these indicators wich are described in the above link also work very good for the RB4 stage Count wich can be used for the game of roulette aswell as for Baccarat
About the plotting i can tell you that i use the outcome from the RB4 Stage count for example
if stage 3 is dominant i backtrack to realted spin/hand and virtually bet on the outcome from the backtracked spin/hand
now if the next outcome is the same we virtually bet on we would have a VW and i would writedown a X , if the opposite
outcome showed we would have a VL and i would write down a O
and when it comes to real betting because i have a indicator ... for example it has broken thru a tripple Top
i would place my bets on X because i jumped on the X trend and i bet on it till i A) reached a new indicator or B) have reached
a stopp loss point according to the chart not the BK also you can set a trailing stop loss.....
so if i would bet on a X Trend i bet on the outcome the dominant stage says
if i would bet on a O Tren i bet the opposite outcome the stage says
if you have some more questions related to this , feel free to ask ..or if you may have some new ideas related of reading the chart
and indicators to fit themn better to our 'stockmarket' ;) then your ideas a really welcome
till then all the best.. cheerz
Hello Breeze88,
I think your idea is brilliant,it's quite similar to timeline posted numerous time in this forum. We do not know when a betting system is going to win or going to lose. By betting using P&F charting the outcome of LW(lost ,win), I believe you should be able to catch when a streak happen. The loses are taken care and cut short and let the profit run.It's the ingredient of a potential winning strategy.I will work hard on this and come back to you if there is any breakthrough.
Regards
sniper
Hello again Breeze88,
Thank you for sharing your interesting approach, it's much appreciated buddy! :)
Generally, I think you are the only one in this challenge who was kind enough to post any results & details with the audience (No offense fellas!).
Okay, I've got a couple of questions (more) about these modifications to the RB 4 Stage Count strategy...
In your previous post, you say that you have some indicators [when betting real units]. You also applied some different safe & aggressive ways of playing that give various results... Do you refer to the Lw methodology principles in these two cases or you used some different approach? Thanks in advance.
Cheers!
Hi Mistarlupo
Ok , Mate the thing how i applied the RB4STC on this example is like this .. if the RB4STC Bet next on P and its a win i write down an X if its a loss
i write down an O .. i write the trends like the Point and Figure Charts used in stock markets.. similar to this
nolinks://nolinks.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_figure_chart_patterns.php (nolinks://nolinks.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_figure_chart_patterns.php)
and the i use the same indicators wich are used in the point and figure chart technique to jump on the trends m wich you can find in the link
with aggresive or safe i mean the indicators .. there are more safer indicators wich tells me a trend is now more likely to happen
it can happen that you have a double top indicator wich tells me that now a X trend is morelikely to come and then i jump on that trend i.e. bet on
waht the RB4STC says... now it can happen that it was a false break....and the trend indicator was not correct....
in this case i could have add a trailing stop loss wich prevents me to loose to much or stay in profit...
but i could also play saver when i only use the really good indicators like a tripple top.. for example...
be sure to check the lnk out and you know waht i mean..
if you have future questions feel free to ask,,
cheerz
Arte ,there was a baccarat method that was posted on Gamblers Glen by Bigjoe , I was wondering if you had a copy you could either post on your studio here or e-mail to me ....Thanks Charlie201 grooviin@msn.com