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What is a trend ?

Started by I have cookies, March 16, 2011, 03:59:09 PM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

gizmotron

Quote from: MauiSunset on March 17, 2011, 12:40:05 PM
Psychobabble about psychobabble is still psychobabble....

Well it's your psychobabble and your junk science that will need to pass the test of time. Just because you want a command post does not mean we have to solute. The test I want to see is you and cheese on your dream vacation.

Check this out: nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making_software

It's only psychobabble if you refuse to understand it. So understand this. You are just avoiding conflict by hiding behind your well constructed wall of childish name calling. I'll bet you do that to others without even knowing it. So you have a self constructed Karma working your way. "I know you are but what am I?" is not an argument. It's just a dodge of the question all along. You make your demands but you never answer anything.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Kelly on March 17, 2011, 12:41:29 PM
It doesn`t really matter what I say. The tests you talk about has been carried through on real wheels since the eighties up till today. Like I said, ask someone who is in business, obviously you don`t really believe anyone or any links.

Ok, what are the results of this very fundamental test?

What's the standard deviation abound the target number?

If I had to guess, that SD is going to be 3 numbers either side either side of the target number meaning 7 numbers must be bet at once; and that's just for 68% accuracy.  So 1 out of 7 numbers wins 68% of the time at * 35 to 1 odds  = 3.4 units won for 7 bet; failure.

If you had 2 numbers around the target number that's 1 in 5 * 68% accuracy * 35 to 1 odds = 4.76 units won to a 5 unit bet; failure when you throw in Green 0.

The SD is going to have to be just 1 number either side of the target number - I just have a gut feeling that's asking too much consistency from mechanical equipment which in reality will be influenced by all kinds of contaminants.

In reality a high or low air pressure front moving through the casino location is enough to change the speed of the ball to make using such a system worthless; lower air pressure makes the ball spin faster, higher air pressure makes the ball spin slower.  Throw in the human dealer and I arrive at the conclusion that this is all bunk.

My gut feeling is that this is just another Roulette fairy-tale turned nightmare....

gizmotron

More junk science. Yep psychobabble too.

Kelly

I know you dont give a shit but here is pretracking of a wheel that if I recall it correct payed off around 6K.



This is the search result. On the tracking page there is a field where you enter air pressure among other things  like wheel speed, strike number, strike diamond etc. How fast the dealer throws the ball is his own business, im only interested in the last 6 revoloutions.  

PS: Don`t mind the bias pages, they are an additional bonus if something happens there. They are usefull when mapping the wheel though.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Kelly on March 17, 2011, 01:25:15 PM
I know you dont give a shit but here is pretracking of a wheel that if I recall it correct payed off around 6K.



This is the search result. On the tracking page there is a field where you enter air pressure among other things  like wheel speed, strike number, strike diamond etc. How fast the dealer throws the ball is his own business, im only interested in the last 6 revoloutions.  

PS: Don`t mind the bias pages, they are an additional bonus if something happens there. They are usefull when mapping the wheel though.

Good god, this is what you're all excited about?


That standard deviation of 3 to 4 is a killer that can't be overcome - I gave the example of 3, 4 would be a joke:

1/9 * 35 *68% = 2.6 units won for every 9 bet; horrible.

Maybe you use different math than I do....

Mike

Quote from: MauiSunset on March 17, 2011, 09:58:10 AM
An automated Roulette wheel must have 95% of all numbers spun be identical before you can proceed. 


That's clinched it. You have no idea what you're talking about.   :o

Kelly

Yeah its probably a different math. The 3 number sector had an mathematical expectation of 1.86 but had 8 hits. That would be slightly more than 2 units profit.

The table is a pretracking of the wheel and the results is only for 1 wheel speed in this case, hence the low spin sample. The actual play later consisted of a playing model with 3 wheel speeds and a 5 arc sector with an offset around 25 pockets from obs. In the pretracking these speeds  showed almost 5 SD. In actual play they settled around 3 SD. I only kept a screenshot from the initial tracking because it very fast established a good reading point also for several other wheel speeds. At the same spot. Which is a bit unusual.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Mike on March 17, 2011, 02:09:15 PM
That's clinched it. You have no idea what you're talking about.   :o

Well how would you relax the condition?

What would be a standard deviation you would live with?

Just how accurate is a roulette wheel?

I don't think anyone here has the foggiest of ideas, yet studying the wheel, ball, and the dealer is supposed to have predictive values.

Just how?

Kelly

On a sidenote: The tracking spin samples are not that large so they have to kick out at least 3 or 4 SD within a relative short while.  The second tracking round should confirm the first tracking, if not, the first 3 - 4 SD  kick out was false. Or maybe the second, under all circumstances, you need a bit more work before you have solid playing model.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Kelly on March 17, 2011, 02:26:59 PM
On a sidenote: The tracking spin samples are not that large so they have to kick out at least 3 or 4 SD within a relative short while.  The second tracking round should confirm the first tracking, if not, the first 3 - 4 SD  kick out was false. Or maybe the second, under all circumstances, you need a bit more work before you have solid playing model.

Well I do have respect for folks who have spent time investigating various topics - maybe you are on to something, I wish you the best of luck, and I mean that.

It's just not my cup of tea...

zippyplayer

MauiSunset is an expert 
he'll find some great trends at any Playtech online Casino
Try real money mode old boy. . .  then come back here



BTW Gizmotron as you mention GG    S---E  has been in touch with your students

best pop over and give him one of your putdowns

Kelly

I suppose that was a pad on the shoulder. Basicly i just wanted to point out that the names i mentioned before have all based there play on these things, and they are all the real deal.  There winnings too. Wether they are a threat to the casino or not, just ask Mike Barnett. He has access to the blaclists and why those names are there.

Personally i dont play that often and not at all for a living,  and as such dont win those amounts, but i get by and get to see places. Once you have tryed being on the winning side because you actually knew why the number came up and could follow the ball and the number as they approached each other and connected, you will never look back. Its a facinating world.

MauiSunset

Quote from: zippyplayer on March 17, 2011, 02:58:24 PM
MauiSunset is an expert 
he'll find some great trends at any Playtech online Casino
Try real money mode old boy. . .  then come back here



BTW Gizmotron as you mention GG    S---E  has been in touch with your students

best pop over and give him one of your putdowns

I am no expert at Roulette - I play for free drinks.

I do know how to go about investigating things.  I've been down this path many times before with the stock market, commodities market, real estate, rare coins, antiques, and gambling.

Believe what you want, but it's your wallet you must listen to, not me or anyone else here....

gizmotron

Quote from: zippyplayer on March 17, 2011, 02:58:24 PM
MauiSunset is an expert 
he'll find some great trends at any Playtech online Casino
Try real money mode old boy. . .  then come back here

BTW Gizmotron as you mention GG    S---E  has been in touch with your students

best pop over and give him one of your putdowns

Prove that he has spoken with my students. His big deal tell all is that I never showed them where to place bets. That's all I ever did show them after I showed them how to read the charts. Spike has an agenda. That has become clear. He knows that I understand the concept of educated guessing. If I openly teach it then he needs to destroy my credibility at all costs. That should tell you something. But it doesn't does it?

Zindrod


Zindrod

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