Guidelines for Evaluating Systems This information is from, "The Mathematics of Gambling", by Dr. Edward Thorp.
The general principles we have discussed apply, they guarentee that systems can not give the player an advantage.
To help you reject systems, here are conditions which guarantee that a system is worthless:
1. Each individual bet in the game has a negative expectation
This makes any series of bets have a negative expectation
2.There is a maximum limit to the size of any possible game.
(This rules out systems like the no-limit doubling up system.)
3. The results of any one play of the game do not "influence" the results of any other play of the game.
(Thus, in roulette, we assume that the chances are equally likely for all of the numbers on each and every future spin, regardless of the results of past spins.)
4. There is a minimum allowed size for any bet. (This is necessary for the technical steps in the mathematical proof. Most people would take for granted that there is such a minimum, namely some multiple of the smallest monetary unit.)
Under these conditions, it is a mathematical fact that every possible gambling system is worthless in the following ways:
1. Any series of bets has negative expectation
2. This expectation is the (negative) sum of the expectations of the individual bets.
3. If the player continues to bet, his total loss divided by his total action will tend to get closer and closer to his expected loss divided by his total action.
4. If the player continues to bet it is almost certain that he will:
(a) be a loser;
(b) eventually stay a loser forever, and so never again break even;
(c) eventually lose his entire bankroll, no matter how large it was.
The above information is from, "The Mathematics of Gambling".
The above information does not apply to strategies such as:
B ased wheels or various types of visual ballistics.
-Herb
Herb you sound like a fun guy to be around with and I don't agree with you or the Doctor on this point.
Quote1. Each individual bet in the game has a negative expectation
This makes any series of bets have a negative expectation
Come to the RNG side herb, we have fortune cookies.[smiley=beer.gif]
Quote from: Ulysses on February 16, 2009, 11:30:18 AM
Herb you sound like a fun guy to be around with and I don't agree with you or the Doctor on this point.
Come to the RNG side herb, we have fortune cookies.[smiley=beer.gif]
you don't agree.. But herb is right
give us some reasons why don't you agree?
Quoteyou don't agree.. But herb is right
give us some reasons why don't you agree?
Yes probability states the odds are against you based on a million spins or so, giving the house a 2.7% edge. Hence the word probability (probabale, probably) not certainty not absolute. RNG is a completely different ball game. You cannot apply the same math to it. It is not true random number generation it is pseudo, an attemt at mimicing real randomness. The algorithm is flawed with recursion. Playing real live roulette is based purely on chance alone. Whereas with RNG I have the confidence of applying methods that I can rely on that keep on working and have done for 3 yrs. The only way you lose playing any form of gambling is not knowing when to quit. So like it or not, that is my opinion.
RNG is classified as a slot machine and not a table game. All slot machines have RNG in them anyway. As you will know these slots are set to pay out let's say 95%-97,5%.
So by law these RNG roulette games are allowed to be programmed to pay out 95%-97,5% as with your standard slots simply because of their classification. In other words, you WILL loose. And yes they are fair according to the law and they comply with the law aimed at slot machines and hell, they might even be the closest to real random up to a point......as is normal slot machines. Yet they are governed to paying out less than receiving.........now mate is that truly random?
Cheers
Jakk
QuoteSo by law these RNG roulette games are allowed to be programmed to pay out 95%-97,5% as with your standard slots simply because of their classification.
Online table games like roulette are
not programmed to pay out a set amount. They are tested for randomness only. The game odds give the expected payout. Get it right mate. ::)
That is just that they are not table games. There is no ball, no wheel, and no dealer..........same rng as in slots.
Cheers
Jakk
QuoteYes probability states the odds are against you based on a million spins or so, giving the house a 2.7% edge. Hence the word probability (probabale, probably) not certainty not absolute. RNG is a completely different ball game. You cannot apply the same math to it. It is not true random number generation it is pseudo, an attemt at mimicing real randomness. The algorithm is flawed with recursion. Playing real live roulette is based purely on chance alone. Whereas with RNG I have the confidence of applying methods that I can rely on that keep on working and have done for 3 yrs. The only way you lose playing any form of gambling is not knowing when to quit. So like it or not, that is my opinion.
RNG is a completely different ball game yes but not for the reasons you state. the randomness of live roulette depends on the physical aspects of the world around it, eg- the dealer/maintainance of the equipment etc. over a million spins you will find that it is more common to get deviations from the 2.7% HE than to actually see that 2.7%, this is because poorly maintained equipment/DS may affect how often different numbers can hit, the simplest example is bias. if you find a good bias over a million spins one number could have a 5% edge for the player while the one next to it has a 5% HE.
RNG is different however because it is programmed to stick to the percentages so over a million spins again you wouldnt find a bias at all, every number will have the statistical 2.7% HE it is supposed to. so unless you know how to beat the algorythem its more or less impossible to beat an RNG.
in conclusion you will have a better chance to win on a live wheel than an RNG program, and from my experience the only way to make good money is to get an edge over the house, even a 0.5% positive edge is better than trying to beat a 2.7% HE.
Why does everyone on the dark side go to such great lengths to try and distort the truth of RNG. I bet you are all in to conspiracy theories and your favourite one is the Fox news documentary that America never landed on the moon because the flag seemed to be waving. Haha, you guys crack me up. ;D
QuoteRNG is different however because it is programmed to stick to the percentages so over a million spins again you wouldn't find a bias at all, every number will have the statistical 2.7% HE it is supposed to.
Wrong wrong wrong, It isn't programmed to stick to the percentage. I have already set the record straight with jackals
QuoteOnline table games like roulette are not programmed to pay out a set amount. They are tested for randomness only. The game odds give the expected payout. Get it right mate. ::)
Now thats cleared up I will answer the rest of your question. I don't dispute you may find a bias on real wheels, though without using technology to measure the ball and wheel speed like the Euodomons did in the 70's your predictions will be crude at best. But I value your attempts at this, go for it.
Let this be the end of your prejudices and propaganda regards RNG. Resistance is futile.[smiley=beer.gif]
Hi Ulysses,
Quote from: Ulysses on February 20, 2009, 12:19:03 PM
Wrong wrong wrong, It isn't programmed to stick to the percentage.
Prove it. I'm all ears. :)
Quote from: Ulysses on February 20, 2009, 12:19:03 PM
I don't dispute you may find a bias on real wheels, though without using technology to measure the ball and wheel speed like the Euodomons did in the 70's your predictions will be crude at best.
Says who?
Bias and VB are powerful stuff
if done properly.
And no, you don't need to bring a computer with you to the casino if you are trained enough to apply the proper techniques.
Who's prejudiced now? :P
Cheers mate, [smiley=beer.gif]
Marven
QuoteProve it. I'm all ears.
nolinks://nolinks.32red.com/banking/payout-reviews-at-32red-casino.html (nolinks://nolinks.32red.com/banking/payout-reviews-at-32red-casino.html)
nolinks://tilacasino.com/fairgaming.html (nolinks://tilacasino.com/fairgaming.html)
Still not convinced Marven?
Look guys, you know more about Visual ballistics than I. And I know more about RNG than you. Peace.
@Ulysses
stefanio has some fortune cookies for you if you can realy beat RNG
and you will prove us 2
Sure, ask your freind Stephanio to post his system here. Will review it and return the favour.
Quote from: Ulysses on February 20, 2009, 08:01:29 PM
Sure, ask your freind Stephanio to post his system here. Will review it and return the favour.
no no... if you can beat 1 milion RNG spins he will give you 10 000$
@Ullysses, sorry for this slight misunderstanding mate, but when I said "prove it" I was talking about proving that you can beat RNG's using a playable method, so we can all see if it's really possible.
Otherwise, the percentages thing would be of no use, and all claims will remain only claims, and that's what most people do when it comes to beating RNG's.
First, we should make a distinction between RNG's, and Online Casino RNG's.
RNG's are computer programs that are designed to mimic randomness.
Online casino RNG's are supposedly the same, but I personally do NOT trust these. Call me a "conspiracy theorist", but that's what I believe in based on my experience and other people's (whom I know) experiences. I believe those are nothing but a scam which only shows that online casinos are mostly a modern form of legally accepted unethical business.
With that said, and after taking into consideration the accepted and proven fact that you can't overcome the negative edge of a purely random (non-physical) game, I would be VERY surprised if anyone can prove that he can beat RNG (by 'beat' I of course mean: gain a long term edge over the house), let alone Online Casino RNG's.
Look at this post reply by Alarian (who have worked for Playtech for years):
Quote"I've read many comments in various forums that very clearly warn against using RNG casinos because results are not truly random. They advise using live online casinos instead." -esoito
Alarian's reply:
Quote from: alarian on February 17, 2009, 10:32:22 AM
I've worked as a programmer for Playtech, one of the (surprisingly few) companies that develops a certified Online Casino Software.
I can assure you that the above statement is absolutely true. There is however one way to abuse this, as I like to call it, Unethical Business Practice by Online Casinos.
Other developer's certified software that I can confirm have this property are Chartwell, Cryptologic and RTG.
I am going to disclose the exact method of doing this in my Millionaire School at my Personal Section when I get there.
In order to abuse this optimally you will need a roulette bot since it requires inhuman speed. I am done developing a bot for this purpose.
A bot for any other purpose regarding RNG, that I can think of, is merely a doomsday tool that will help you bankrupt as fast as possible.
Let's see if his bot can do it. At least the man is willing to SHOW something, not just drop a couple of posts saying "You're all wrong, I can beat RNG's", and leaves it like that.
With that said, I (quite unsurprisingly) haven't
seen anybody actually winning consistently from online casino RNG's so far. This, coupled with the maths and commonsense leaves me no choice but to straightly ask:
"If you think it's possible, prove it!" :)
(PS. Others would say "put up or shut up" but I try to avoid saying that. ;D)
Regards,
Marven
BooRay
Smells like propaganda reading Alairians quote
QuoteI've worked as a programmer for Playtech, one of the (surprisingly few) companies that develops a certified Online Casino Software.
I can assure you that the above statement is absolutely true. There is however one way to abuse this, as I like to call it, Unethical Business Practice by Online Casinos.
Other developer's certified software that I can confirm have this property are Chartwell, Cryptologic and RTG.
I am going to disclose the exact method of doing this in my Millionaire School at my Personal Section when I get there.
In order to abuse this optimally you will need a roulette bot since it requires inhuman speed. I am done developing a bot for this purpose.
A bot for any other purpose regarding RNG, that I can think of, is merely a doomsday tool that will help you bankrupt as fast as possible.
I am not saying he was not a programmer for Playtech but c'mon what level programmer was he? Did he design the RNG that playtech use. Doubt it.
Every other failed online roulette player b***hes about how they must be fixed. Then morph themselves into a programmer who has insider knowledge. ::)
They don't need to employ
QuoteUnethical Business Practice by Online Casinos
to get your money. As most players just hand it over to them through making adrenalin fueled large bets with an absence of discipline.
A good freind of mine was convinced progression was the best method to beat roulette. Watching him play, I could not believe the amounts of money he was wagering. Starting with a 1000 he got up to 20,000 but would not quit. He lost his winnings plus his 1000. Why? Why did he nearly every time he played a session boost his starting BR to 10x 20x and not stop and withdraw? His own words where "
it's the software, it starts cheating when I have won" of course the software it cheats.
No he just cheated himself. Every time he played.
My point is you can beat RNG and Real roulette if you master some discipline. Stop aiming for that 100,000 just take a 1000 and play another casino and another until your money is safely in your bank from those casinos. Over a year you will get your 100,000. Then there is next year and the year after. My rule is double my BR then withdraw. Millionaire school, get rich quick. No get comfortable slowly.
@Ulysses
alarians skill level of programing is high enough that he knows exacly what programs were designed for... They were designed to steal money from people.. Today some online casinos are made that way that they avtomaticly give you bonus and lure you into wagering requirements.. That was my first personal experience on joyland when I deposited and marked for no bonus and I still got bonus.. so I had to contact them and they had to manualy cancel my bonus(first thing they asked was: "were you playing during that time".... ofcourse I wasn't) .. I also told them that they block all bonuses for further deposits..
That is how they work... And if you are smart enough you can learn something from that..
Marven allready told you that you are just writing about something that is more likely to be nonsense... I don't care If you win on RNG(winning is good for you).. But stop spoiling thread and section that is designed for wheel/delaer analysis and VB, with something like RNG - which actualy isn't roulette (it is a number generator with roulette layout)
I can also start typing on forums that I have the knowledge and skill to win at slotgames.. but we all know that is not true and unapropriate for this section..
You and Marven seem to have it all figured out. If censoring and banning debate seems to be your mantra, then I will gladly not post here further. Peace.
Uly
Quote from: Ulysses on February 16, 2009, 12:43:01 PM
Yes probability states the odds are against you based on a million spins or so, giving the house a 2.7% edge.
Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooold your horses ???
2,7% negative edge:
37 numbers on the table
35 to 1 payback
If it's 36 to 1 payback, the edge is even
QuoteRNG is different however because it is programmed to stick to the percentages so over a million spins again you wouldn't find a bias at all, every number will have the statistical 2.7% HE it is supposed to.
Wrong wrong wrong, It isn't programmed to stick to the percentage. I have already set the record straight with jackals
it is designed to stick to percentages, im 99.9% sure that a biased RNG doesnt exist. also no-one is saying there is anything wrong with RNG but thats precisely the point, the flaws in a live wheel can be taken advantage of and profited from, RNG is flawless and i dont see how you can beat a flawless game with the odds stacked against you.
if you think otherwise you have to prove me wrong not just tell me im wrong.
Quote from: ryan08 on February 21, 2009, 10:35:53 PM
it is designed to stick to percentages, im 99.9% sure that a biased RNG doesn't exist. also no-one is saying there is anything wrong with RNG but thats precisely the point, the flaws in a live wheel can be taken advantage of and profited from, RNG is flawless and I dont see how you can beat a flawless game with the odds stacked against you.
if you think otherwise you have to prove me wrong not just tell me im wrong.
I agree.
@Ulysses,
Claims are one thing, and proven facts are another thing.
Here in the Darkside, we (quite naturally) prefer proven facts. That's all there is to it.
BooRay said:
Quoteyou don't agree.. But herb is right
give us some reasons why don't you agree?
Marven said:
QuoteIf you think it's possible, prove it!
Ryan said:
Quoteif you think otherwise you have to prove me wrong not just tell me im wrong.
If you can only prove to us what you are saying about RNG's, then you are most welcome to post here.
Otherwise, you are most likely to keep receiving the above requests.
The Ulysses System
System groups
1 & 2 & 12 & 21 - Bet only when 12 or 21 has landed twice within 9 paper hits. Bet for 9 spins max.
1 & 3 & 13 & 31 - Bet only when 13 or 31 has landed twice within 9 paper hits. Bet for 9 spins max.
2 & 3 & 23 & 32 - Bet only when 23 or 32 has landed twice within 9 paper hits. Bet for 9 spins max.
1 & 2 & 3 & 11 & 22 & 33 - Bet only when 11 or 22 or 33 has landed twice within 6 paper hits. Bet for 6 spins max.
0 & 10 & 20 & 30 - Bet only when 0 or 10 or 20 or 30 has landed twice within 9 paper hits. Bet for 9 spins max.
When you begin a session you must wait for a win to hit on paper. That is you are not going to start betting after the first two paper hits. You must wait for an un-betted win before you begin. Now you observe paper hits that fit one of the groups, then bet that group.
The way to play each of the groups is, after you have identified two of the stated system numbers of a group. For example 23 and 32 have landed within 9 spins of each other, you bet 2 & 3 & 23 & 32 if any number hits (say the 2 has hit) before the 9 spins you do not continue up to the max. You bag the win. Then discard those numbers including your winning number 2, and wait for the next two paper hits that land within 9 spins of each other.
More importantly if you lose on a group, do not continue blindly on, in the hope it will come in with a few extra spins. Yes it might, but the rules are there for a reason and must be followed.
Apart from my own testing of 5000 playtech RNG spins I have pulled some (not many) actuals from 'real' random results and it faired well on those too also on random.org results inputting 0-36 for 500 generated numbers. Don't ask me why I was just curious. A little thrown as to why it was fairly successful on pure randomness? But only dabbled with checks on real rand. But it makes no odds to me anyway as it would be to slow to implement on a live game, but worthwhile if it gave you the edge in the long run. Playtech rng though, has the ability to generate a number instantly so I can paper hit quickly through to a system group that can be bet. This success of this system is only based on 5000 spins, if in my next 5000 spins with real money it might fail, it might not.
We can only base the future success of a system on past results. But that is by no means a measure of how successful a system will be. A good system to me is one that is not volatile, that maintains a level of stability. Time will tell for this one.
Uly[smiley=beer.gif]
thankyou for sharing, i shall have a go at it when i get chance and post how i got on with it, i have my opinions and doubts but i will wait and see. you mention that you have tested this over 5000 spins, so just a few questions and comments here.
firstly i seem to remember you say in earlier posts that you have had success playing RNG for 3 years now, is this the system that you have been using or a different one? is this specifically designed to try and beat an RNG wheel?also 5000 spins isnt really definative in testing, its the amount of bets that is the measure for testing. ive learned 10000 bets should be the minimum benchmark for a thurough test, also if you do 10000 spins and bet every spin, your testing would have to last a minimum of 10000 spins but if you only bet 1 in 3 spins then your testing would need to be 30000 spins so the amount of spins will vary.
lastly i feel i must say this, alot of people who read the posts in here from the 'darkside' members of the forum take us as having a negative attitude towards the game, but truth be told no-one more than us would like there to be a winning system that cannot fail, but after a long time studying roulette i cannot possibly see such a system exist, and i personally think that if you believe in the 'holy grail' then you dont understand the game of roulette. so im not after an arguement when i disagree about people saying they have a winning system, its just with the information and knowledge i have, i have no choice but to disagree. im just saying all this because ive made a few people 'unhappy' with my comments before and dont want to do it again :)
You are correct Ryan, there is no 'one' system that works all the time, every time. But there are systems that exist that when applied at certain stages of a game may and in my experience mostly do, gain you the advantage.
Its to me all about observing what is happening with the numbers, not just making a prediction from the last 12 numbers but also from what has been occurring over the last 100 spins. I can see when a certain system may be applied when the numbers are unfolding and they meet the criteria of that particular system. Applying that system at that time is the risk you are taking. Its not set in stone that it will pay off, but at least it is based on past experience that it has the best chance of producing a good result than relying completely on a single system all the time. I dare say no one plays blindly on when the numbers stop winning, they change tact by waiting, introducing another strategy or stopping altogether.
The point I'm trying to make is, it is near impossible to show you or anyone how I play in a game. As I draw on so many strategies throughout any game. The only consolation to this is that I only use 3 systems and will use one or all depending on the game. One of which I posted a long, long time back in the full systems section 'fouroulette system' and it received a similar reception to what you guys believe about rng. That system worked very well at the time and still works the same now after tens of thousands of spins, if you add all my games up over that year. This is how I have created my own system the 'Ulysses system' above, by recognising and applying my own logic from other systems I have found on VLS and the net that work with repetition.
The way I understand a winning system is that it can be used as a tool to increase my advantage. But at the same time I draw on many other methods I have learned, that may give
me the advantage at certain points in the game. The HG you mentioned, that it is a term used by persons who don't understand roulette, yeah I can see where your perspective is coming from though I see the HG as that element of rng, a combination of numbers that repeat together more times than not over hundreds of games and are a part of the algorithm's output and when a time comes that they do not perform then they will be useless, but until then they are very useful to us.
I know you will say this is ridiculous and impossible, but I'm not posting here to prove I have found a HG. I post because I have the same interest as you in winning as much as I can at roulette. Even if you hate the idea of playing rng as you believe it to be another form of slot machine. That's fine I have no problem with that. Look at it from my point of view, I enjoy playing live roulette more than rng but I won't dismiss the opportunity that rng gives me over live at the present time. Also I am grateful you have bothered to look into my system whatever your verdict is otherwise there is no point in posting our ideas.[smiley=beer.gif]
Ulysses,
Thank you for sharing.
Like Ryan, my opinion is still unchanged due to my experiences, but I will give this a try and see how it performs. :thumbsup:
Respectfully,
Marven