Hello.
I'm going to try and keep this thread as informative as possible. Any additions or simplications to the fact that you won't better your odds by waiting for "7 reds to hit in a row" or *** lines/streets/splits/whatever before you bet.
Redundant information or meaningless remarks due to the fact that the person doesn't understand basic probability will be deleted in order to keep this thread as easy to read and informative as possible.
Please, don't take a deleted post as something personal. This is not discussion, this is information.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You're never going to make a long-term progression system. It's just not possible
Please oh please never wait for a bet if you're GOING to use progressions.
What you do when you "wait until red hasn't come up for 5 times" is that you just spread out your bets, but the losses are equally spread out... PROPORTIONALLY
what you will achieve is that you will win less often and lose less often... But if you compare the amounts of progressions started to the amounts of losses, you'll still be at the same relative amounts...
Example:You bet right away and start progression at 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256
For laziness sake... let's say you have 50% chance of hitting your target... This means that you'll hit as follows:
1st: 50%
2nd: 25%
3rd: 12,5%
4th: 6,25%
5th: 3,125%
6th: 1,5625%
7th: 0,78125%
8th: 0,390625%
9th: 0,1953125%
It doesn't matter where you start... the next chance will be 50% of the chance you have WHEN you start...
Sure, a 10 times streak won't come often... and an 11 times streak will come even half as often...
HOWEVER, if you start betting at 2 instead of 1 or 10 instead of 9, you'll go through the same amounts of progressions, only bet half as often and losing half as often.
Bottom line is that eventually
YOU WILL LOSE and you should stop wasting your time.
There are two ways to make a constant profit at live casinos. Predict roulette or count cards in Blackjack.
There are advanced ways to get an advantage in Slots and other Gambling Machines as well.
Everything else is a complete waste of your time and you should spend it learning how to become an actual advantage player instead.Maybe this was a confusing description?
Let me try to simplify it further... It aches me that people waste their time instead of putting it to good use!
I'm not trying to destroy your dreams, I'm just trying to help. I'm one of the good guys!Let's compare starting the progression directly compared to starting it after waiting for 1 spin (example: "Red hasn't come up for 1 spin")
The only difference is that you will bet half as often... You'll also lose half as often...
AAargh, I don't know how to simplify this more... Maybe I'm not good at explaining.
1st: 50% <--- You start here if you don't wait and you have a 50% chance of winning
2nd: 25% <--- You start here if you DO wait and you have a 50% chance of winning (12,5% is half of 25%)
3rd: 12,5%
4th: 6,25%
5th: 3,125%
6th: 1,5625%
7th: 0,78125%
8th: 0,390625%
9th: 0,1953125%
Additional InformationQuote from: mistarlupo on February 12, 2009, 11:00:21 PM
Spike,
We have something similar here (Author: Kon-Fu-Sed):
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/progressions-why/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/progressions-why/)
I've read some interesting stuff & tests on WizardOfOdds.com...
Anyone interested may check it out.
Regards,
m
over all i agree.. but what you fail to address is automated systems. Take for instance lines, in 12 million spins a line repeated max umm i think it was 8, just say 8 for now its around that figure. On an automated bot, waiting for say 6 hits then doing a 4 or 5 stage progression will give you profit. You WONT win less and lose less like your saying. You will in a sense, but when the probabilities get to the stage of once in a life time events, a loss is a fascinating event and not painful, its fascinating to see such an event of say 10 lines hitting in a row (same line) like witnessing a comet fly past your house or a politician that tells the truth.
Poit,
With all due respect, you just did not get the poit, sorry the POINT he is making. You wait for a line to repeat six times and you start betting NOW. (the now is important and that is the the whole point of his argument.) At this juncture, you ALREADY have come a long way towards that extremely improbable event of ten times in a row. All you need now is four times in row. This is not so improbable.
Anyway a lot of people just cannot see this. What can I say??? If your argument was valid Roulette wheels would cease to exist or they would just change the rules.
Just my two bits.
The Insider
Great addition inside...
Chance a line will hit 6 times in a row = (6/37)^6 which is once in every 55000 spins (1 in 54992...
Now, the chance a line will hit 8 times in a row = (6/37)^8 which is once in every 2100000 spins (1 in 2091239...)
Now what do you get if you divide 2091239 with 54992 ?? You get 38... so FROM THE MOMENT YOU'VE REACHED 6 SPINS... THE CHANCE YOU'LL GO ON TO 8 IS ONE IN 38
What's the chance a line will hit 2 times in a row? (from 6 to 8)
Well that's once in 38 spins... so you can see it's the exact same result from 1 to 3 as from 6 to 8
so it doesn't matter when you start betting... GAMBLERS FALLACY
after you've waited for 6 hits you're well on your way toward a not so probable EVENT... But from this point... 8 times in a row IS NOT as improbable as from the start... IT'S JUST 2 MORE IN A ROW!!!!
Please understand... get out of the shell and stop wasting time on gambler's fallacy
How about the six point divisor plan? Lanky is doing extremely well with it I think.
alarian,
I agree with yours math ........ it is simple to understand to me.
But there is theory wany to win with progression:
Only way to make profit is to find NOT proportionally acting bet, than we could take advantage with progression ;)
Years ago on GG Mark Howy had some excellent posts, with math proof, that if you're in a negative expectation game you're never going to win long term using a progression of any kind. If its a positive expectation game you can win flat betting, so a progression is never needed.
As you already know I totally agree on your position on progressions. But then, why are 90% of the people here obsessed with it?
Insider
The Subject is more to draw attention than to state a fact or a matter of strong opinion.
I'm not alltogether against progressions, but those who are new to roulette are also usually fooled by the Gambler's Fallacy as well as using Martingale Progression or something similar...
I usually use a few step progression myself, but no 140 step progression on singles or 90 step on splits or anything like that...
The subject I really want to draw attention to is the fact that many people wait for an event to increase their chances when that's really just a waste of time.
I can't stress this enough and I feel so infinitely sorry for those who waste their time doing that.
This is also sort of a contradiction since I'm "studying" the G.U.T. but that's somewhat based on a theory of certainties and I find I'm learning alot about other stuff checking it out aswell...
Quote from: Adriatik on February 12, 2009, 06:12:42 PM
alarian,
I agree with yours math ........ it is simple to understand to me.
But there is theory wany to win with progression:
Only way to make profit is to find NOT proportionally acting bet, than we could take advantage with progression ;)
Give me an example of one such bet :/
Hi Alarian,
Yes the gambler's fallacy is just ... that a fallacy BUT if I see 10 reds on the trot I take this as a great opportunity to risk a few bets on a three or four step progression. Real life and maths are two different things. Mathematically speaking it is certain that we will always lose on roulette because of the negative expectation, however this is NOT always the case as most of us know. So knowing the maths theoretical odds helps in deciding how much risk to take with a bet.
That's my experience.
Quote from: purple on February 19, 2009, 06:11:41 AM
Hi Alarian,
Yes the gambler's fallacy is just ... that a fallacy BUT if I see 10 reds on the trot I take this as a great opportunity to risk a few bets on a three or four step progression. Real life and maths are two different things. Mathematically speaking it is certain that we will always lose on roulette because of the negative expectation, however this is NOT always the case as most of us know. So knowing the maths theoretical odds helps in deciding how much risk to take with a bet.
That's my experience.
You're just not getting the point.
There's no difference whether you do your three or four step progression after 1 reds has hit, 10 reds has hit or 20 reds has hit.
There's no opportunity, you need to understand this.
10 reds in a row is an incredibly rare event, but 11 reds in a row in relation to 10 reds already hit is just as spectacular as red hitting 1 time, which isn't all that spectacular now is it?
You're hurting me by hurting yourself in this way. Please understand I am your friend, you are imagining an opportunity that isn't there.
It's not about maths, it's about real life.
Let's say you divide a room into 4 sections. Spin around with a blindfold and throw a ball in the room and log which section it lands in.
The next time you throw the ball, none of the previous throws matter at all. If the ball landed in one section 10 times in a row, this does NOT present an opportunity that the ball is less likely to land in this section again.
This is the exact same thing as the roulette wheel...
There's no touch of any god and the wheel doesn't care at all what happened before...
Let's take your example again...
10 reds hit in a row, this doesn't happen very often....
But let's say it happens to you 10000 times at separate occations... and you play on this each time a 4 step progression as you have suggested.
The results will be as disastrous as if you don't wait at all and use the same 4 step progression 10000 times in a row.
The difference is that playing 10000 times waiting for 10 reds to hit takes a WHOLE BUNCH of years, but the fact remains. There will be absolutely NO difference.
If you all want, we can prove this with permanenzes from live wheels. We can log 10000 games after waiting for an event of YOUR choice and I will
prove to you that there's no difference whether you wait or bet right away.
Instead of wasting time on this Fallacy... Please spend it on learning real advantage strategies! Stop giving away money to the casinos.... TAKE THEM BACK
Hi again Alarian, I appreciate that you're offering friendly advice I'm not out to knock you or anything.
As you say 10 reds in a row is a rare event and 11 reds in a row is even rarer. The longest I 've heard of is close to 35. Roulette is a random generator as you say and the odds are always 18/37 for any even chance irrespective of previous spins BUT in the Real world you'd have to be incredibly unlucky to be in the casino at the exact time and place when you'll be beaten by such rare events time and time again, that's what I'm saying.
If my number hits twice on the trot I Never leave all my winnings on the table because I know that it's very rare for a number to hit three times in a row even though this has happened to me and I made a tidy profit from it! If that were not the case we'd keep hearing about 50 reds on the trot and the same number repeating ten times in a row which never happens even though one day it may happen.
Now as far as the real advantage strategies you mention I'd love to know more about these because apart from visual ballistics players who claim that they can win consistently and dealer signature players who also know how to play the man and not the wheel I don't know of anything else to beat this game.
I don't believe ANY mechanical system can beat this game and so roulette IS gambling, it will always carry risk and that's why money management is so important.
Quote from: purple on February 19, 2009, 07:01:11 AM
As you say 10 reds in a row is a rare event and 11 reds in a row is even rarer. The longest I 've heard of is close to 35. Roulette is a random generator as you say
The main focus here is that 11 reds in a row starting from spin 0 is a very rare event. But 11 reds in a row in RELATION to 10 reds in a row... As in 10 reds in a row just happened and we're looking at the chance that yet another red will get hit... THIS event is NOT rare and it's exactly the same as red hitting when you're at 0 spins... 18/37
It's not an opportunity to bet on black more than it is an opportunity to bet on black right when you reach the table or at any other given time.
Purple,
You don't have to be beaten "time and time again", as you put it.
Just 52,7% of the time will make you lose enough.
I have seen the same number hit five times in a row on five different occasions and red hit 32 times once.
I have tested on RX (why the hell nobody uses that anymore?) millions of spins to see if there would be any advantage if you wait X spins before putting such and such a bet. Now this is contrary to my beliefs but I just wanted to check it out anyway. Well if the result had not been what I suspected all along, I would be a very rich man by now! And so would be several million other players... If you have a kick when you see ten reds... by all means! We get so few kicks anyway.
You say you know of two proven methods to win at Roulette. I mentionned a third one a while ago but I won't mention it again.
Money management is very often discussed. With all due respect, I think it is another fallacy. Everything has to do with your expectancy, beit positive or negative. The way you manage your money is irrelevant. Streaks, as everybody knows can be short or incredibly long. Trying to `time`the duration of any streak, ( and, to me, that is money management ) is relying on luck since the duration of any streak in unknown.
Having said that, I used stop-losses quite often in the past. I seldom use a win-stop. Why do I use a stop-loss on occasions? So I can sleep better that particular night. Simple as that! On many, many occasions, had I stayed at the table I would have made all the money back very quickly... but that is another matter.
I tested way too many `systems`that use either a "wait x spins" or/and "use this progression" and I am yet to see one that wins on the long term. Most of them win for a while but fail miserably later. All fail on the long term. But then again you know this already.
Alarian. You say you use a "mild progression" at times. May I ask what you play and do you use the progr.
I have tested GUT manually, the best I could understand it. The 1K spins I have tested yielded a negative result and I stopped. Doesn't mean it is not good.
I always said that if a winning system existed, it would have to be fairly complex. Otherwise any Dick, Joe and Harry would walk into any casino and make plenty of cash. It really is not the case, right?
If patterns exists, maybe a human brain just is not capable of seeing it. Or conceiving it. Which brings me to Neural Networks... Did you ever think of applying this to Roulette??? If there is order somewhere in the chaos, I more and more think that only a computer could bring it to light.
The Insider.
Hi Insider,
I believe you but somehow my experience in live casinos has been different. I've been playing for over ten years and like everyone else have made my share of mistakes but have learnt from them. For some years now I will lose about 2 -3 sessions max out of 10 and because I have set myself stop loss and win points so my winnings are more than my losses. This I can control! I know that these results might be luck on my part and fly in the face of maths expectation of a negative game but now I'm confident of winning and use it. No I'm not a millionaire!!
How do I bet? Well there are many ways. One of my favourites is to always cover the 0 and 3-4 lines simultaneously based on what the dealer is shooting, another to either play the hottest or coldest number and couple of neighbouring numbers for a limited number of spins. Or to bet on mirror patterns of what is happening with a small progression eg. If I see RRBBRB I will then play BRBBRR ( I know ... there are another 63 of these one could choose from) and bet with a Fibonacci progression, or I may go for three parleys in a row. I wouldn't call these systems mechanical because I'm awake and respond to what is happening at the table. I don't play mindlessly as this in my experience is a sure way to lose very quickly. Like any game you get better at it the more you play it. But knowing at all times how much you're up or down is very important, also setting win and stop targets of 20% -30% of your BR and having a reserve of at least 20 times the minimal bet is crucial -although you never use it all-. Always leave when you feel you're riding the crest of the wave and don't even look back. When you feel you're sinking stop. Yes I know its all highly subjective I hear you say and I agree it is! And I always remember roulette=gambling=risk so I must play responsibly.
You say that you wrote of another method other than DS or VB to win. Can you point me towards it please? Thanks.
purple
What a Good Post Mate.
You would have thought I had written that Cobber.
We both have some of the same principles when We play.
Good On Ya Mate.
Lanky.
*Sigh* Look...
Play whatever you want...
Just don't wait for something to happen before you start betting.
Start doing whatever it is you're doing when you sit right down at the table.
It won't matter at all. You'll just play your sessions quicker.
If you lose 2 out of 10 sessions then that's because of everything else in your strategy.
Waiting for a bet trigger that's not related to you actually predicting the table is just fooling yourself!
If you believe in magic trends and stuff, go play Baccarat instead :'(
I'm only trying to help you
Your friend
Alarian
Alarian
When you find a person whose been doing a particular thing and making money at it--well, maybe he knows something you don't. .
Take Lanky for example. He uses a progression and his bankroll just goes up and up. I won't tell him progressions don't work; just that they usually don't work for me. Mr J calls himself a progression freak. Victor uses a progression.
Me? I once did quite well waiting for five things to happen, then betting against the trend and using a progression. I did quite well betting two dozens and two columns at the same time using no progression. This was using the VLS Lw Methodology.
Whatever you do to win, I'm happy for you.
Sam
Start straight away without waiting for something on the table layout to happen.
Either way, I'm not going to discuss this any further...
Selective memory is something I can't discuss with. :thumbsup:
Your friend...
Alarian
Alarian
A word of friendly advice. You are bordering on insulting quite a few people on this forum.
I don't know what your point is in all this. Track4 is the be-all and end-all of G.U.T. software. You, nor anyone else, will ever write a more useful program for tracking the G.U.T. Take my word for it, when you have spent 100 or more hours staring at that software, you can see the graphs in your head. You don't need an output in multi-color.
You are coming across with a haughty attitude, as if you are speaking to the slobbering ignorant.
Your comment about "selective memory" is totally out of place unless you can testify in court, under oath, that I have selected portions of tests to report on. You might want to find an thread called "TwoCat takes a Whoopin'" and see that I do report losses.
We are always willing and ready to learn from anyone. I don't know of anyone on this forum who appreciates a condescending attitude. This is exactly what you're doing with your posts.
You can be stopped!
Sam
Let me make this further clear, if I haven't already. The following is a quote by a friend of mine. I will not name him/her.
"I am not against Progressions.
However I like it to be a Controlled Progression.
I try to win 2.5% of My starting bank and in the last 2 Years alone have multiplied that by 350%."
350%! Using a progression.
I have stated as part of my own dictatorial policy that I will not stand by and let one member disparage another. You are disrespecting and disparaging a person whom I would accept as teacher and mentor any day of the week. I would follow him/her to a casino, give them a thousand dollars of my own money, and sit back and take notes.
You are insulting someone I care for and respect.
You're entitled to your opinion; you are not entitled to tacitly call people liars or insinuate they are lying.
And don't lecture winkel. You can't hold a candle to this man.
I don't like you very much right now.....
Sam
:thumbsup: to you twocatsam.
all I need to know is that iboba and many others on this forum are winning regualy alot more wins than losses using progression type bets.
it may take you years to find the right for yourself however this site and all the help from the members it will help us losing money in the future and begin winning money in the next 5 years instead of in 35years when you have had alot of bad experiences.
and winkel to me is a GENIUS.
mattjono
Please read this carefullyQuote from: alarian on February 19, 2009, 05:07:46 AM
The Subject is more to draw attention than to state a fact or a matter of strong opinion.
I'm not alltogether against progressions, but those who are new to roulette are also usually fooled by the Gambler's Fallacy as well as using Martingale Progression or something similar...
I usually use a few step progression myself, but no 140 step progression on singles or 90 step on splits or anything like that...
The subject I really want to draw attention to is the fact that many people wait for an event to increase their chances when that's really just a waste of time.
I can't stress this enough and I feel so infinitely sorry for those who waste their time doing that.
This is also sort of a contradiction since I'm "studying" the G.U.T. but that's somewhat based on a theory of certainties and I find I'm learning alot about other stuff checking it out as well...
Sam...
I don't understand where all your aggression is coming from but it hurts me..
I haven't been able to modify my posts for some days and I was going to change this subject to "Why you shouldn't WAIT before betting".
I don't understand what GUT software comes in all of this either...
This post is intended to learn people who are clueless about Roulette as a whole and make them think twice before rushing head first into some martingale scam feeling high and mighty until the first hit comes.
It all might seem very logical that if a red hasn't come for 20 spins, it has to come now for sure!
Grinding is a proper method to win at roulette... But that's way more advanced than what the people that this post is intended for can possibly have enough experience or knowledge to be using.
I have no ill intentions, I'm a friend... Keep saying it :-[
I'm feeling quite misunderstood and very hurt.
Your friend...
Alarian
Alarian
As I have said many times...we are all free to express our opinions on this forum.
Frankly--my aggression comes from your use of the term "selective memory". You don't know me well enough to make such a statement about me. You haven't seen the books I've kept over the years for the play I've done.
I spent five years at the horse races listening to people telling about all their wins and forgetting their losses. I fully understand the person with a "selective memory" is a total loser.
Now do you get it?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 03:48:23 PM
And don't lecture winkel.
I don't see where I've done this...
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 05:26:02 PM
Alarian
As I have said many times...we are all free to express our opinions on this forum.
Frankly--my aggression comes from your use of the term "selective memory". You don't know me well enough to make such a statement about me. You haven't seen the books I've kept over the years for the play I've done.
I spent five years at the horse races listening to people telling about all their wins and forgetting their losses. I fully understand the person with a "selective memory" is a total loser.
Now do you get it?
Sam
If you thought that comment was aimed at you then I understand you fully...
It wasn't, I have nothing to hold against you in that way.
When I'm shocked about a comment someone makes, I usually ask the person what he means...
I felt prematurely judged because of, either my lack of ability to make myself clear... Or prejudice of others
I've had a discussion with an 80+ years old man Called "Reimond Bergwall" for the last couple of weeks...
He's called "The Roulette Professor" in Sweden. He states that if 8 reds come in a row you've got a higher chance of winning if you bet on black... All the logic, statistics, clinical tests or whatever else proof there might be in the world isn't going to change his opinion on this matter.
Logic contradicts his experiences so there's no point in discussing it since there won't be a dialogue, there'll only be arguments that either side isn't willing to listen to.
Every human being has a selective memory, there's nothing bad about that... We all defend our experiences to the very end, experiences are real and noone can take them away from us.
I take it that those who are experienced enough grinders shouldn't take it upon themselves to feel insulted or anything like that...
Your experience proves your point and I'm not here to argue that...
Like I've said, I want to clarify to those who are new and get tempted that if you just run head first into a progression scam you're going to lose your money and this is why...
To many, all these terms are new and easy to mix up...
Advanced progression methods are a different thing alltogether... But who's going to come across them before the tons upon tons of other easy accessible GO BE RICH $200 PER NIGHT NOW IT'S SUPER COME!!!
Fibonacci, Dàlmbert, Clever positive progression.... Good tools if used correctly
I always use a divisor plan combined with the Kelly Criterion when I play Blackjack
If I'm going to play a shorter session then I'll just use a Fibonacci progression
"This post is intended to learn people who are clueless about Roulette" --- Am I in this group? I hope not. Over the years I have come close to playing ALMOST ALL types of betting techniques. I did not say all methods mind you Alarian but all types of betting. My form of progressions should not be lumped in with >>> 8 reds came up now lets start a marty on black. I use a long and heavy duty progression on anywhere from 1-4 numbers max and am up quite nice over the years. I have paid thousands of dollars towards back bills (personal) from profits of roulette. I now owe thousands MORE for medical bills which I hope to pay off with.....you guessed it, roulette funds. I can withstand losing 9 of my progressions and still be ahead. Not all "furthest back" and not all progressions should be grouped together. Yes I know...."its all the same", blah blah blah, save the speach. I appreciate your efforts here and yes, my way of playing is dangerous (I never denied that) but the payoffs are GREAT! I lost around 7K before I finally got my s**t together. Trial and error I say. Learn from mistakes. More important, learn from other peoples mistakes, it saves lots of headaches. Ken
I don't see why people who knows what they're doing still have post here...
J: No I don't think you're one of those
Poit <-- From my experiences with him on Steve's forum... yes
"I don't see why people who knows what they're doing still have post here" --- Why not? I asked a question about ball changes, no big deal. I have answered questions. I have given opinions. I have asked for opinions. Newer players seem lost and I am MORE THAN HAPPY to give out advice. I would never tell a newbie to go get a bank loan for 6K so he can play heavy progressions. Its not for everyone, especially someone who gets nervous easily at a table. Me giving advice to newer players, I bring it down a couple notches. Thats why "Im here". Not to mention, making great friends and chatting about things non related to gambling. Ken
I never had any intentions of starting a fight :-[
I've read through all my posts and I can't see where I've instulted Winkel, called him a liar or lectured him...
I think he's a great man and I try to learn as much I can from him...
Ok, I can see what you've misinterpreted as me lecturing Winkel...
Is it about when I compare his betting against mine???
I don't think he's doing "His thing" there... Since it's the basic strategy he keeps saying is a losing strategy and that if you win using that it's because of luck...
I'm aiming at trying to learn these more advanced strategies he's talking about and since he's not sharing them except in riddles and vague hints I have to try and find it myself using whatever information he has provided.
A good thing to learn from, I thought, was to use this wonderful test where he's published several sessions using basic strategy and even some with advanced selections. I'm not here to brag or anything like that... If I find a strategy that beats the basic, then maybe I'm a step closer to finding the real deal he has?
Quote from: Mr J on February 21, 2009, 05:59:15 PM
I asked a question about ball changes, no big deal.
Ball Changes?
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/general-board/something-they-don't-do-at-my-casino/msg40496/?topicseen#msg40496 (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/general-board/something-they-don't-do-at-my-casino/msg40496/?topicseen#msg40496)
Alarian
Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory. My mind will lie to me. On that we can agree.
And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult. If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go. It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.
I'm good with all this if you are. :)
Sam
Can I make some statements?
I am a relatively new roulette player compared to all of you,when I first came here no one wanted to teach me anything at all.It was Lanky who spend his time and painstakingly taught me how to play something decent,that is the LWs and give me a 1st lesson on money management with his 6 point divisor.I am sure Lanky will always go the extra mile for another fellow new comer.
As for Sam,he is a system tester here.He has tested almost everything here in the forum and he knows much of the systems here.Drop him a PM on any system and he will be there to answer your questions and help you.
Alarian,you have just came here with your new section and I have not seen your work or contributions yet but somehow I can feel you are sincere and just trying to help as well.I really wish to see some money making ideas and your bots anytime soon.
For myself,I never like progressions,they kill.I have been to the point of no return several times therefore I know the dangers of them.Currently,I am playing a system with much success with some form of progression,I am playing it becos I have never played anything that performs so well.All the flat bet systems I have learn are all worthless to me,just could not learn anything new with flat bets for my liking.
So whats my point?
I hope all of you can chill and make peace,I always believe that we players have one common enemy and that is the casino.We should stay united and do something constructive for our community instead of passing unconstructive and negative remarks.This sort of atmosphere dampens the mood as well.
Shall all of us move on with this incident?Put it behind us can we do that?
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:47:38 PM
Alarian
Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory. My mind will lie to me. On that we can agree.
And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult. If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go. It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.
I'm good with all this if you are. :)
Sam
Sam,thats the way to go! :thumbsup:
The usual chirpy and funny TCS ;D
My name is mentioned in this discussion several times, so I have to make a statement, I think.
I hope I am allowed to say I´m proud that so many people read my strategy and work on it, doing Excel-Sheets, HTML-sheets and lots of testing.
I also know that some of my statements seem to be contradictional. but please read my last statements in the Original thread.
There is written, what I understand of the most advanced way to play.
I further am working of some more statistic to make you see "what is going on".
I think there are a lot of tests that show, that the basic strategy even with Iron rules and static play til spin 50 is possible to work out a nice and quiet game risking not that amount of Bankroll you usually lose playing an Progression to win 1 single chip.
and I said this is only basic. The advanced way is on your own abilitiy to see what is going on. This is the point, that gives you the hint to bet or not to bet. to jump or to stay in the trot. Jump out of a losing streak and you will land in a winning streak with a rate of 2to1.
At least I call it "Gamblers Intelligence"! Gambler´s Fallacy is to stay on the bet because it has to show up at last. I just say: see the losing streak and jump out of it.
And back to progressions: If you have seen what is going on and you are comfortable in a winning streak, why not double unit-size for a while. Or after a bad period of 3 or four losing sessions start with a triple bet-size. and if you are very comfortable with the game and your decisions: why not select bet-size to win with next hit all losses back.
That means:
Progression of hate, because I lost is a bad thing.
But Progression to get my bankroll back, knowing that I win the next bet for sure, is a kind of Moneymanagement.
GUT just delivers these informations. Just see: Wait until a streak is broken. Gut shows that if e.g. "0"(or "1" is steadily rising and not falling) fall asleep they will sleep for a long time, once they broke doing that, you can easily bet and win on them, despite of being at a crossing or not.
TCS worke his way through all the losses and wins and met himself being to much selfconfident. But he learned of that. I think this is a part of GUT.
Nobody should go, press the rules into 10 sentences and belive he will win forever. That won´t work.
As I said: the rules of Chess (GUT) don´t make you win. And an aggessive jump of the queen (Progression) doesn´t save you from losing the war!
br
winkel
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:47:38 PM
Alarian
Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory. My mind will lie to me. On that we can agree.
And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult. If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go. It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.
I'm good with all this if you are. :)
Sam
I never had any other intensions but to make you my friend right from the start...
And anyone else who's here for more than just information
OK, as Lanky says, "We're sweet." Now change that goofy pic and get on with it.
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:57:52 PM
OK, as Lanky says, "We're sweet." Now change that goofy pic and get on with it.
No way! I had too much fun making it, you have to admit it makes you laugh
OK I'll change it...
Another comment on progessions. Yes I defend them, sorry. I'll pick ANYTHING as an example >>> Lets say you wanted to only bet on one number. I dont care how you picked the number but lets just say one number using a progression. Lets say I can get around 90 spins for one number with some very nice NET wins. The total if I lose will be around $2,800. My question is this >>> If you only have enough money (or nerves) to play up to 55 spins and then lose.....does it matter if your number would of hit in the next 35 spins? Assuming you stay there and watch. It should matter to you. No one should put down due/progression if they are ONLY looking it at from the point of view of a small BR. I am NOT knocking small BRs but it does not mean other ideas will not work. Ken
Quote from: alarian on February 21, 2009, 06:54:11 PM
I never had any other intensions but to make you my friend right from the start...
And anyone else who's here for more than just information
Hi Alarian,
Sorry but I'm a bit confused by your statement above ??? My roulette knowledge is somewhat limited compared to a lot of people here. So I attempt to learn & evolve from the people & the information available on this forum.
Unfortunately from the way I read your above statement that would mean I won't be your friend :(
I can only assume I have got the wrong end of the stick, as normal :-[ If you could take a moment to explain your quote that would be greatly appreciated..... :thumbsup:
Cheers.....[smiley=beer.gif]
Quote from: xman1970 on February 21, 2009, 07:55:31 PM
Hi Alarian,
Sorry but I'm a bit confused by your statement above ??? My roulette knowledge is somewhat limited compared to a lot of people here. So I attempt to learn & evolve from the people & the information available on this forum.
Unfortunately from the way I read your above statement that would mean I won't be your friend :(
I can only assume I have got the wrong end of the stick, as normal :-[ If you could take a moment to explain your quote that would be greatly appreciated..... :thumbsup:
Cheers.....[smiley=beer.gif]
From your post count I'd take it you're here for more than just leeching information. You're exchanging knowledge and from what I've seen you've made some friends aswell...
Thats it.....everyone here is invited over at my place for drinks tonight! And dancing girls. Ken
I've just found my passport & booked my flight.....
Catch you in about 12 hours Ken :thumbsup:
Keep the beer cold & girls warm.... :D ;D :D
Unfortunately unlike your last thread this has a less than 99% chance of happening..... :( :(
Quote from: alarian on February 21, 2009, 07:59:56 PM
From your post count I'd take it you're here for more than just leeching information. You're exchanging knowledge and from what I've seen you've made some friends as well...
To be honest there isn't one thread I have started that is a system / way of playing.... :-[
My threads are usually questions about how B&M casino operate that kinda stuff.
As for my posts they are normally asking questions & encouraging people & some testing.
My ONLY field of knowledge is a bit of experience with on-line casinos.
So, yes I admit I do try to glean information from this forum. After all I think that's one of the things it's here for....
& as for a few friends, well hopefully :-[ & to be fair I DO pay them a lot..... :D ;D :D
Hey folks, iv been using a bot to bet on progressions for dozens and columns, my starting bet is 10p table limits is £100 so i have 18 progressions before i go bust, i set the bot to wait for 17-19 missed columns or dozens before it starts to bet, im fairly new to roulette but i wanted to ask you guys opinions on whether its just a matter of time before i get the nightmare run and go bust??
on another matter there are a lot of people on this forums with great roulette minds and iv learned a lot from being on this forum. keep up the good work all
iaino
>>A word of friendly advice. You are bordering on insulting quite a few people on this forum.>>>
I agree with this. Progressions are the crack cocaine of gambling, you'll never convince people they don't work. Ever try and convince a crack addict to give up his high? Good luck.
If you don't have a good bet selection, and almost nobody does, the progression becomes the bet selection. Switch back and forth between them, ride it out, go home a winner. But the problem is that in the end the variance will kill you dead. I read lots of books about pro gamblers and by pro gamblers and never have I seen one of them say they owe everything to a mathematical progression.
Why is that? Because progressions are a long term loser of and by themselves. But its something everybody has to find out on their own, like going cold turkey off of heroin..
Quote from: idiamin1 on February 21, 2009, 08:33:52 PM
Hey folks, iv been using a bot to bet on progressions for dozens and columns, my starting bet is 10p table limits is £100 so I have 18 progressions before I go bust, I set the bot to wait for 17-19 missed columns or dozens before it starts to bet, im fairly new to roulette but I wanted to ask you guys opinions on whether its just a matter of time before I get the nightmare run and go bust??
on another matter there are a lot of people on this forums with great roulette minds and iv learned a lot from being on this forum. keep up the good work all
iaino
Yes, it will take some time but you will go bust
@idiamin1, im afraid to say the guys are right here, dont worry though we are all the same when we first start out in the game, i did a simple example a while back of how the maths works for e/c's and dozens/columns here,
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/a-demonstration-of-why-systems-lose/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/a-demonstration-of-why-systems-lose/)
it will show you that waiting and progressing doesnt really improve your chances of winning at all, but it can give a very convincing illusion to a new player. if you read the darkside section you will find alot of information in there that may help your game.
dont be disheartened by the information though, systems can work, but to make a system work it has to be well planned and you will need to use 'gamblers intelligence' to make informed decisions based on the situation. you may also need to practice spotting dispertions so you can ride the bad times and profit in the good times, what you look for depends on the system you are using. never use progressions, bet minimum when you are hitting bad dispertions and bet big when your on a winning streak but always flatbet. just keep in mind that no system will stand on its own, and casino games are not easy to win, roulette being the hardest to win of all.
hope this helps :)
Quote from: ryan08 on February 23, 2009, 05:46:53 AM
bet minimum when you are hitting bad dispersions and bet big when your on a winning streak
I call that positive progression :) and I agree that positive proggression can help you alot :)
Quote from: Boo_Ray on February 23, 2009, 08:33:16 AM
I call that positive progression :) and I agree that positive proggression can help you alot :)
I agree with you max :thumbsup:
Quote from: ryan08 on February 23, 2009, 05:46:53 AM
@idiamin1, im afraid to say the guys are right here, dont worry though we are all the same when we first start out in the game, I did a simple example a while back of how the maths works for e/c's and dozens/columns here,
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/a-demonstration-of-why-systems-lose/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-dark-side/a-demonstration-of-why-systems-lose/)
it will show you that waiting and progressing doesn't really improve your chances of winning at all, but it can give a very convincing illusion to a new player. if you read the darkside section you will find alot of information in there that may help your game.
dont be disheartened by the information though, systems can work, but to make a system work it has to be well planned and you will need to use 'gamblers intelligence' to make informed decisions based on the situation. you may also need to practice spotting dispersions so you can ride the bad times and profit in the good times, what you look for depends on the system you are using. never use progressions, bet minimum when you are hitting bad dispersions and bet big when your on a winning streak but always flatbet. just keep in mind that no system will stand on its own, and casino games are not easy to win, roulette being the hardest to win of all.
I endorse this. :thumbsup:
I am playing a postive progression system.works well
Much appreciated guys, thanks for taking the time to help, i really want to take some money off the casinos as does everyone else i presume, so again thanks for all your help and suggestions.
Iv been using progressions with a bot and havent lost yet, so gonna make a wee bit more and then cash out i think, ill keep my eye on this board as seems to be some interesting stuff happening
keep up the good work guys its well appreciated
iaino
Mr.Alarian,
I am playing proggres.11th. year now,full time,and lost only once on the system I was playing 10 years continuosly.Lately playing diff. system,also progression,which sometime loses,but more wins,mind you,every night except sunday,therefore can not agree with you about your theory of progression.Tell me any other way to win on roulette.iboba 8)
Quote from: iboba on March 22, 2009, 03:36:49 PM
Mr.Alarian,
I am playing proggres.11th. year now,full time,and lost only once on the system I was playing 10 years continuosly.Lately playing diff. system,also progression,which sometime loses,but more wins,mind you,every night except sunday,therefore can not agree with you about your theory of progression.Tell me any other way to win on roulette.iboba 8)
Hello Iboba,
Biased wheels or perhaps VB? ::)
Quote from: See_Jerek on March 23, 2009, 05:13:28 PM
Hello Iboba,
Biased wheels or perhaps VB? ::)
Not my friend,real wheel,in real live casino.Sorry that you could not catch the system i gave you............................................iboba
Quote from: iboba on March 25, 2009, 03:17:58 PM
Not my friend,real wheel,in real live casino.Sorry that you could not catch the system I gave you............................................iboba
No Iboba,I got it however my tests didn't go well enough for me to convince me to play for real.will email you