I'm not sure if this is a challenge, more of an offer.
There are a few people on this forum who, legitimately I believe, claim to be able to beat roulette in the long run.
I make this offer. If you live in the United States or are going to be in the United States.
I will meet you at the casino of your choice. I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run. We split winnings at some ratio to be negotiated if the play generates a net win. You make good losses if the play generates a net loss.
A few things I need from you first.
The expected value of your approach.
The number of trials necessary that theoretical expected value will equal actual results. (If you don't know how to calculate this I can do it for you. )
Standard deviation of your approach.
An English description of your approach in language that even I can understand.
Risk of ruin of your approach.
Needed bankroll to overcome standard deviation and make it to the long run with a reasonable risk of ruin.
I will reject responses to this offer that are betting schemes which do not have some theoretical support that they can provide +EV. For example, if you respond with a martingale I will reject your response.
And please do not respond with some secret CIA crap like "how I play is a secret so I want you to put up your money without having any idea what I plan to do".
I will meet you at the casino of your choice. I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run. We split winnings at some ratio to be negotiated if the play generates a net win. >>>
You get to observe a winning system first hand and up close. What does the system owner get out of this deal? If he has a winning system, he certainly doesn't need your BR. Why would anybody in their right mind do this if they have a winning system, I don't see any benefit to them whatsoever.
next time this post under humor>>>
It reminds me of the gambling columnist who will pay a $10,000 prize to anybody who submits a winning long term system for any casino game. He's in essence buying a winning system for a measly 10K. What a joke..
You know what i never was buy system why??? i cant understand that i have usualy many questions about diferent things but whay buy it system if anyone can make some small winning with easy math,my looses was learn me to much but i was never los huges amounts but after some time it is go add up.
Quote from: curious on September 06, 2009, 03:52:58 PM
The expected value of your approach.
The number of trials necessary that theoretical expected value will equal actual results. (If you don't know how to calculate this I can do it for you. )
Standard deviation of your approach.
An English description of your approach in language that even I can understand.
Risk of ruin of your approach.
Needed bankroll to overcome standard deviation and make it to the long run with a reasonable risk of ruin.
The only method that will be able to answer these questions with answers that are anything but negative, is VB or some sort of advantage play.
The EV of any system that isn't in some way associated with advantage play will always be -2.7% or -5.26% because that is all math will allow for.
@ Spike >> If somebody were to answer curious' questions, and then take him up on the offer by doing it in front of him in a casino he would certainly witness a winning method, but that in no way would immediately make him capable of doing it himself.
Quote from: Spike on September 06, 2009, 04:28:06 PM
I will meet you at the casino of your choice. I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run. We split winnings at some ratio to be negotiated if the play generates a net win. >>>
You get to observe a winning system first hand and up close. What does the system owner get out of this deal? If he has a winning system, he certainly doesn't need your BR. Why would anybody in their right mind do this if they have a winning system, I don't see any benefit to them whatsoever.
Hey SPIKE, since you have NOTHING constructive to add in any of the forums that you fill up with your bullshit, please stay out of my threads and stay FAR away from me.
It isn't up to you to decide what others may or may not do or may or may not benefit.
EDITED/Lanky
Quote from: rjeaton1 on September 06, 2009, 05:46:51 PM
The only method that will be able to answer these questions with answers that are anything but negative, is VB or some sort of advantage play.
The EV of any system that isn't in some way associated with advantage play will always be -2.7% or -5.26% because that is all math will allow for.
Yes, I assume that anyone who claims to be a long term winner is an advantage player.
Quote
@ Spike >> If somebody were to answer curious' questions, and then take him up on the offer by doing it in front of him in a casino he would certainly witness a winning method, but that in no way would immediately make him capable of doing it himself.
I don't want to learn their method, I want to bankroll their play. I thought that was obvious. Two ways to be an advantage player, learn an advantage method yourself or bankroll another advantage player's play.
Hi curious,
Quote from: curious on September 06, 2009, 09:48:18 PM
Hey SPIKE, since you have NOTHING constructive to add in any of the forums that you fill up with your bullshit, please stay out of my threads and stay FAR away from me.
It isn't up to you to decide what others may or may not do or may or may not benefit.
EDITED/Lanky
I don't see anything abusive in Spike's post so let's tone the language down please.
Thank you. :)
Quote from: Marven on September 06, 2009, 10:07:16 PM
Hi curious,
I don't see anything abusive in Spike's post so let's tone the language down please.
Thank you. :)
Is there an ignore feature on this site?
I don't want to learn their method, I want to bankroll their play. I thought that was obvious.>>>
Not obvious at all. Heres what you said:
"I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run."
What in gods name does getting into the 'long run' have to do with just bankrolling someone? Thats what you say when you want to observe their system. If all you're interested in is money, you say 'you will play long enough to make the agreed to amount of profit', which could take an hour, or 3 hours, whatever. It most certainly would never get into the 'long run'. Whats the point of even mentioning it? If you were my client, I wouldn't even let you watch me play.
Just so I understand this. The offer is mainly for someone who is winning on paper, testing at home (doing well), whatever you wish to call it. If you came to Milwaukee, what do I get in return?? It cant be your money, I dont need it. Ken
what do I get in return?? >>>
I would do it if he paid for a round trip ticket to Vegas. I would get 5K on Mon night and would hand him back 10K on Tue night. He can't watch me play and if I could avoid meeting him I could. I would triple the 5K and would do for a free trip to Vegas. Other than a deal like that, I'm not interested.
Not interested? Its the best deal you'll get..
Quote from: Mr J on September 07, 2009, 01:24:52 AM
Just so I understand this. The offer is mainly for someone who is winning on paper, testing at home (doing well), whatever you wish to call it. If you came to Milwaukee, what do I get in return?? It cant be your money, I dont need it. Ken
I'm not sure how I can make it any more clear. There are people on the forum who claim to be long term winners. You can't win $$ on paper so that rules out people who only play on paper.
The offer is that I will bankroll the person's play and we will split the winnings. I thought that was pretty clear.
I don't need money either but if someone offered to bankroll my play at blackjack I would take it if the bank was big enough.
Not sure what else I can tell you.
Quote from: Spike on September 07, 2009, 01:09:25 AM
I don't want to learn their method, I want to bankroll their play. I thought that was obvious.>>>
Not obvious at all. Heres what you said:
"I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run."
What in gods name does getting into the 'long run' have to do with just bankrolling someone? Thats what you say when you want to observe their system. If all you're interested in is money, you say 'you will play long enough to make the agreed to amount of profit', which could take an hour, or 3 hours, whatever. It most certainly would never get into the 'long run'. Whats the point of even mentioning it? If you were my client, I wouldn't even let you watch me play.
Please stop filling up my threads with your bullshit.
Anyone who knows anything about advantage play knows that for any approach that is backed up by theory it is possible to calculate the number of trials to get into the long run. Since you don't know anything about advantage play you don't know this, hence your confusion.
It's my challenge I will phrase it the way I want to. If you have a problem with that then you create your own challenge and feel free to phrase it however you want.
One, I would never be your client since you are an idiot and a liar, and two I have no interest in watching you play since I don't like to watch people lose.
Since you are not an advantage player and don't have an approach that can meet the criteria of my challenge then you don't have anything constructive to add to this thread so please leave me the f**k alone.
Quote from: Spike on September 07, 2009, 02:02:52 AM
what do I get in return?? >>>
I would do it if he paid for a round trip ticket to Vegas. I would get 5K on Mon night and would hand him back 10K on Tue night. He can't watch me play and if I could avoid meeting him I could. I would triple the 5K and would do for a free trip to Vegas. Other than a deal like that, I'm not interested.
Great, you are not interested in my challenge and I have ZERO interest in you. So, with that please stay the f**k out of my threads.
Yes, I'm going to fly someone I don't know to Vegas, hand them $5,000 and hope that they show up on Tuesday. Put the crack pipe down idiot. No one would do that.
No one would do that.>>
LOL! Sure they would. What are you offering, $500? I can double your money in 24 hours and I'm sure as hell not going to do it for anything less than 5K, nobody would.
Curious,
The problem is the phrase: "You make good losses if the play generates a net loss."
I guess that means that the player pays for the losses. But this also means you take no risk at all. Like you mentioned already, even a winning system has a risk of ruin. Whoever wants to call himself BR provider should take that risk. Otherwise it is obvious there is no reason anyone would be interested in this kind of deal.
Not to mention, that if someone had a winning method he would already had accumulated the needed money to play it. Unless it needed a really BIG BR.
Hi Spike.
Look Mate We have had Complaints from the the Thread Starter of this Topic that You are disrupting this Topic of His.
So Please do us all a Favour and post Your Questions and Comments about this Topic to link provided below.
I have open that Thread for You and anyone else who wants to use it.
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/roulette-challenge-zone/question-and-comments-to-(offer-to-anyone-who-claims-they-can-win-in-the-long-ru/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/roulette-challenge-zone/question-and-comments-to-(offer-to-anyone-who-claims-they-can-win-in-the-long-ru/)
Thanks Spike.
Lanky.
Quote from: kav on September 08, 2009, 06:37:16 PM
Curious,
The problem is the phrase: "You make good losses if the play generates a net loss."
I guess that means that the player pays for the losses. But this also means you take no risk at all. Like you mentioned already, even a winning system has a risk of ruin. Whoever wants to call himself BR provider should take that risk. Otherwise it is obvious there is no reason anyone would be interested in this kind of deal.
Okay. so then say that and say you would be willing to do it if you don't have to make the losses good. That's fine.
Quote
Not to mention, that if someone had a winning method he would already had accumulated the needed money to play it. Unless it needed a really BIG BR.
Not necessarily. I know many people who play blackjack with a theoretical edge of 1 to 2% and they have not been able to accumulate a decent bankroll. The bigger the bankroll that is backing your play the more profit you can make. I play blackjack as an advantage player and I would not turn down an offer to bankroll my play if the bankroll was large enough. Just means I can make bigger bets than normal. Why would I not do that?
Quote from: curious on September 06, 2009, 03:52:58 PM
I'm not sure if this is a challenge, more of an offer.
There are a few people on this forum who, legitimately I believe, claim to be able to beat roulette in the long run.
I make this offer. If you live in the United States or are going to be in the United States.
I will meet you at the casino of your choice. I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run. We split winnings at some ratio to be negotiated if the play generates a net win. You make good losses if the play generates a net loss.
A few things I need from you first.
The expected value of your approach.
The number of trials necessary that theoretical expected value will equal actual results. (If you don't know how to calculate this I can do it for you. )
Standard deviation of your approach.
An English description of your approach in language that even I can understand.
Risk of ruin of your approach.
Needed bankroll to overcome standard deviation and make it to the long run with a reasonable risk of ruin.
I will reject responses to this offer that are betting schemes which do not have some theoretical support that they can provide +EV. For example, if you respond with a martingale I will reject your response.
And please do not respond with some secret CIA stuff like "how I play is a secret so I want you to put up your money without having any idea what I plan to do".
Kav says that by including the condition that the player make good net losses I am making an unreasonable demand. Okay, so I remove that condition.
Here is the offer with that condition removed:
I make this offer. If you live in the United States or are going to be in the United States.
I will meet you at the casino of your choice. I will bankroll play of your approach over enough spins to get into the long run. We split winnings at some ratio to be negotiated if the play generates a net win.
You make good losses if the play generates a net loss. A few things I need from you first.
The expected value of your approach.
The number of trials necessary that theoretical expected value will equal actual results. (If you don't know how to calculate this I can do it for you. )
Standard deviation of your approach.
An English description of your approach in language that even I can understand.
Risk of ruin of your approach.
Needed bankroll to overcome standard deviation and make it to the long run with a reasonable risk of ruin.
Quote from: kav on September 08, 2009, 06:37:16 PM
Curious,
The problem is the phrase: "You make good losses if the play generates a net loss."
I guess that means that the player pays for the losses. But this also means you take no risk at all. Like you mentioned already, even a winning system has a risk of ruin. Whoever wants to call himself BR provider should take that risk. Otherwise it is obvious there is no reason anyone would be interested in this kind of deal.
Not to mention, that if someone had a winning method he would already had accumulated the needed money to play it. Unless it needed a really BIG BR.
Kav,
I amended the offer to remove the condition
"You make good losses if the play generates a net loss"Thanks for the suggestion.
This is much more attractive now. :thumbsup:
However, since you are a BJ player, you should know that when we are talking about 1-2% advantage it is very hard to define standard deviations - whatever that could mean exactly (which is not clear to me). The most famous (and rich) Greek BJ player, John Taramas, (back then when European casinos weren't full of shuffling machines) was for a whole year in the red!!!
Quote from: kav on September 08, 2009, 08:15:34 PM
This is much more attractive now. :thumbsup:
However, since you are a BJ player, you should know that when we are talking about 1-2% advantage it is very hard to define standard deviations - whatever that could mean exactly (which is not clear to me). The most famous (and rich) Greek BJ player, John Taramas, (back then when European casinos weren't full of shuffling machines) was for a whole year in the red!!!
Yes, I understand. But, I think you are confusing defining standard deviations with playing enough trials to overcome standard deviation. We can define standard deviation theoretically. The problem with blackjack with a 1-2% advantage is that the actual results often don't conform to the theoretical.
It is possible, however, to establish the number of trials where you
expect actual results to equal theoretical expectation. In blackjack we call this number NO. For a game with good conditions this can be as few as 6,000 trials. Of course, you might play the 6,000 trials and still not have overcome SD. The formula used to determine this number requires the expectation and the standard deviation, we can calculate the standard deviation once we know what theory is being applied to the game.
The reason I need these numbers is to know what size bankroll to use and what the bet size is to be so that risk of ruin can be kept reasonable. Personally, I don't like for risk of ruin to be above 2%.
I fully expect some winning roulette players to be unable to supply these facts because the way they play depends on intuition or pattern recognition. I'll deal with that if it comes up.
curious,
From my experience with the forum, Spike is actually one of the very few members who does claim to consitently beat the game.
So why would you want to exclude him from the offer?
He is likely the only one that will take up the challenge, so why not undergo serious negotiation with Spike?
BTW, what exactly do you expect to achieve through this exersize?
Curious,
I win in the long run and I live in the US.
But first, who are you?
curious
Why do you have to actually be at a wheel when Dublin is a real wheel broadcast worldwide? (Don't go ballistic on me--just asking! I know it's not your challenge.)
Sam
I Agree With The Bee ...... Bombus! :)
Spike says he can beat the game with only a jockstrap and tackies .... and double your money....well that seems pretty decent to me. :yahoo:
Jakk
Quote from: Jakkalsdraai on September 09, 2009, 05:33:08 AM
I Agree With The Bee ...... Bombus! :)
Spike says he can beat the game with only a jockstrap and tackies .... and double your money....well that seems pretty decent to me. :yahoo:
Jakk
I know Spike from another forum and I believe nothing that he says and I want to have nothing to do with him.
Quote from: bombus on September 08, 2009, 09:09:39 PM
curious,
From my experience with the forum, Spike is actually one of the very few members who does claim to consitently beat the game.
So why would you want to exclude him from the offer?
He is likely the only one that will take up the challenge, so why not undergo serious negotiation with Spike?
BTW, what exactly do you expect to achieve through this exersize?
From my experience with Spike on other forums he is a blow hard. I want to have nothing to do with him.
Quote from: bombus on September 08, 2009, 09:09:39 PM
curious,
BTW, what exactly do you expect to achieve through this exersize?
To bankroll advantage play and make a profit.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on September 08, 2009, 11:34:06 PM
curious
Why do you have to actually be at a wheel when Dublin is a real wheel broadcast worldwide? (Don't go ballistic on me--just asking! I know it's not your challenge.)
Sam
Oh gee, I don't know. Perhaps I don't like the idea of handing a large bankroll to someone I don't know and hope that they are nice enough to give it back to me along with my share of the winnings.
curious, I'm serious!
Not being catty (ahem), but what if a bloke used his own money and deposited at Dublin? If he could double his bankroll, would you believe he has a winning system? Is there one person on this forum you think would NOT lie about it? He could have access to the account and testify that no more money than the original was deposited, so if there is an increase it is due to money being won. People will say it's easy to double your bankroll. Yes, using # it is! You just get some more and play until you win and then testify. But if they put in $1,000 of their own money........
You see, if you're really wanting to test people it can be done.
You'd really hand Spike $5,000 to play on? What if Spike takes a hike?
TwoCatSam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on September 09, 2009, 04:59:21 PM
curious, I'm serious!
Not being catty (ahem), but what if a bloke used his own money and deposited at Dublin? If he could double his bankroll, would you believe he has a winning system? Is there one person on this forum you think would NOT lie about it? He could have access to the account and testify that no more money than the original was deposited, so if there is an increase it is due to money being won. People will say it's easy to double your bankroll. Yes, using # it is! You just get some more and play until you win and then testify. But if they put in $1,000 of their own money........
You see, if you're really wanting to test people it can be done.
This has nothing to do with my offer. I am not "wanting to test people". I want to bankroll advantage play and profit on the winnings, it is that simple.
Quote
You'd really hand Spike $5,000 to play on? What if Spike takes a hike?
TwoCatSam
Where in the world did you get that idea? I wouldn't give Spike 5 cents. I wouldn't "hand" anyone any amount of money. What I will do is meet someone at the casino of their choice (in the United States) and bankroll their play and split the winnings with them. I thought this was pretty clear in my offer. Not sure why everyone wants to throw in all this complication.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on September 09, 2009, 04:59:21 PM
Is there one person on this forum you think would NOT lie about it?
Obviously, or I would not have set up an offer that started with "several people in this forum have claimed to be long term winners". Obviously I believe some of them or I wouldn't be wanting to bankroll their play.
As for Spike, because you seem to have a crush on him or something, I know him from another forum and I don't believe anything he says. its that simple.
[quote author=curious link=topic=12102.msg77127#msg77127 date=1252528059
As for Spike, because you seem to have a crush on him or something, I know him from another forum and I don't believe anything he says. its that simple.
[/quote]
Yes, I'm starting to think that Spike might even be Wendel (winwithmath).
Stranger things have happened...
@ curious,
One thing is for sure, any advantage player into the "long run" with consistent profits certainly doesn't need your $5000 bankroll, so it's a no brainer... there will be no takers, sorry.
Mate, I don't even need your $5000... but good luck, and a gold star for you for trying.
Me? A crush on Spike! Well, there's a new one, for ya! He calls me a scammer and a shill. Well, in a 'round about way, he does.
curious
Let me see if I got it? You find someone who can win at will and you bankroll them. You split the profits. That's like saying to the guy with the goose laying golden eggs, "Hey, mate! Let me bring you some Purina Golden Goose Mash and we'll split the eggs."
I, too, wish you good luck!
Sam
"Yes, I'm starting to think that Spike might even be Wendel (winwithmath)." >>> This is a subject I have been curious about for YEARS. I'm usually quite good at connecting "certain pieces" and have been told so by a few. I think Spike IS someone else (or more than one) but I wont lose sleep over it. Maybe not WWM but maybe yes. I have it narrowed down but dont want to start a civil war. lol Narrowed down to 3 and one of them would floor everyone but HEY, I could be wrong. Ken
Quote from: bombus on September 09, 2009, 10:17:26 PM
@ curious,
One thing is for sure, any advantage player into the "long run" with consistent profits certainly doesn't need your $5000 bankroll, so it's a no brainer... there will be no takers, sorry.
Mate, I don't even need your $5000... but good luck, and a gold star for you for trying.
I never said the bankroll was $5,000. Again, where did you get that idea? I didn't say what the bankroll would be. But, it would be much larger than $5,000.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on September 09, 2009, 11:03:13 PM
Me? A crush on Spike! Well, there's a new one, for ya! He calls me a scammer and a shill. Well, in a 'round about way, he does.
curious
Let me see if I got it? You find someone who can win at will and you bankroll them. You split the profits. That's like saying to the guy with the goose laying golden eggs, "Hey, mate! Let me bring you some Purina Golden Goose Mash and we'll split the eggs."
I, too, wish you good luck!
Sam
No one can win "at will". I'm assuming that someone who is a long term winner has a 1%-3% advantage. With standard deviation this doesn't even equate to "winnings" until you get far enough into the long run.
Since roulette is a game where one player can back another player's play and the advantage player will be playing anyway, how does it hurt him to put more money behind his play? That is just smart business.
Quote from: Mr J on September 10, 2009, 03:25:01 AM
"Yes, I'm starting to think that Spike might even be Wendel (winwithmath)." >>> This is a subject I have been curious about for YEARS. I'm usually quite good at connecting "certain pieces" and have been told so by a few. I think Spike IS someone else (or more than one) but I wont lose sleep over it. Maybe not WWM but maybe yes. I have it narrowed down but dont want to start a civil war. lol Narrowed down to 3 and one of them would floor everyone but HEY, I could be wrong. Ken
winwithmath? That lunatic is on here? ayyayyay