Meaning, its not the same kind of thread where we all argue (I hope), its a simple question.
If a roulette/casino gambling author was writing a book, would you agree >>> When he wrote about 'gamblers fallacy', we are reading HIS past experiences, HIS views on the subject, HIS definition, HIS opinions. True or not? (Yes I know, he could be doing some interviews etc. asking other players.)
Ken
I agree absolutely, although I bet he wouldn't.
Do a Google Search on Gambler's Fallacy and you will find 49,500 pages on the internet about the topic - lots of folks reporting about the fallacy. Here's a great explanation nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy)
Basically, the fallacy says that if Red shows up 15 times in a row that Black is "overdue" to make an appearance.
This requires God spend a lot of time keeping track of a lot of Roulette wheels in order for this to come true; I pity the supreme being - boring.
Flip a coin and Red is Heads and Black is Tails - within an hour or so you will have 15 Red or Black in a row - it means nothing. Your hand doesn't keep track of the Red or Black - the next flip is totally random.
The reason the Marquee is above every Roulette table is to force your mind to find patterns and your flawed knowledge of random numbers to take over and make a bet - "it's overdue to appear".
Take out a quarter and start flipping - you will quickly prove to yourself that there is nothing there - just the Gambler's Fallacy......
Most authors just plagiarize other material from other folks now - it's super easy now with $49 tools that will turn any copied paragraph into a paragraph that Google finds as unique - not appearing in the known internet. No need to do interviews or any real research - just copy the material.
Quote from: Mr J on March 07, 2011, 08:05:20 PM
Meaning, its not the same kind of thread where we all argue (I hope), its a simple question.
Nice try. And you got a condescending explanation of something you already new as well. Bonus!
The link you posted......so is the AUTHOR of that definition, his opinion?
If we looked up the word.......'fast' (as an example), is it only an opinion from that author?
Ken
"Nice try. And you got a condescending explanation of something you already new as well" >>> Not a clue what you are talking about bro. My point, lets not call each other improper names along with insults. Seems fair, just like adults.
Ken
He writes his opinion but his opinion could easyli be based on facts. If you think red or black is due after 5 blacks i can easyli prove to you, on real spins, that its not, thats a fact. Gamblers fallacy is a fact that can be proven, not an opinion.
I know that NASA could present as many facts as they would, you would still call it their opinion.
I have stated MANY MANY MANY MANY times, get off the.......black is now due BS. My point is and ALWAYS WAS, that *ANY* method posted (according to the AP crew) is gamblers fallacy.
Ok AP guys, a question for you. Not counting AP (cough), name a couple styles of betting (methods) that are NOT gamblers fallacy. Kelly seems to think it only applies to the EC's.
Lets see how many we get. From that list, I'll post it at AP (cough) sites and see if they agree, cool?
Ken
It applys to all betting styles if the style is based on past spins. I dont know why you would post such a question on a ap site if was not for causing trouble. People there is way past this stage.
Quote from: Mr J on March 07, 2011, 10:39:52 PM
"Nice try. And you got a condescending explanation of something you already new as well" >>> Not a clue what you are talking about bro. My point, lets not call each other improper names along with insults. Seems fair, just like adults.
Ken
I was referring to the fact that Maui is already arguing with you, as well as telling you what you already know and not answering your question. As for insults and improper names, now I don't have a clue what you are talking about.
Sam
"I dont know why you would post such a question on a ap site" >>> Who said I would? Lets try again Kelly. So can you name any styles of betting (methods)? If you can, they are.........
Quote from: birdhands on March 08, 2011, 12:38:13 AM
I was referring to the fact that Maui is already arguing with you, as well as telling you what you already know and not answering your question. As for insults and improper names, now I don't have a clue what you are talking about.
Sam
My mistake Sam, I thought it was directed towards me.
Ken
I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ? You are the strategy expert, you tell me which strategys are not based on past numbers. Close your eyes and spread 10 chips on the table could be one of them.
Quote from: Kelly on March 08, 2011, 01:14:22 AM
I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ? You are the strategy expert, you tell me which strategys are not based on past numbers. Close your eyes and spread 10 chips on the table could be one of them.
Thats not a method. Kelly, it seems like I'm arguing with you but I swear thats not what it is.
If your answer is.... you cant think of any, well, thats an answer. My point being, gamblers fallacy is NOT only about the EC's. My other point was and still is, the AP crew says that *ANY* form of betting other than AP, is gamblers fallacy. A load of BS (?), I just want to hear it.
I'm not talking about some goof who throws the chips up in the air, come on now.
Ken
Yeah well, i dont know what you mean. Advantage play takes advantage of slight anormalys in the wheels but you dont believe there are for example tilted wheels in the casinos today. There are semi tilted wheels in just about all casinos and that can be taken advantage of if other conditions fits too. The probabilitys are getting screwed towards the player when you up front knows how 1/2 the spin will go down, in particular the last half.
Im done, hair splitting debates is not my strong side.
Quote from: Mr J on March 07, 2011, 08:05:20 PM
If a roulette/casino gambling author was writing a book, would you agree >>> When he wrote about 'gamblers fallacy', we are reading HIS past experiences, HIS views on the subject, HIS definition, HIS opinions. True or not? (Yes I know, he could be doing some interviews etc. asking other players.)
Ken
No, Gambler's Fallacy is not opinion, it's a fact.
Quote"...is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely."
Anyone can prove for themselves that this is false. Just find a sequence where there are a lot of blacks and see if there are a greater than expected number of reds following it, then do the same thing after a sequence where there are an average number of blacks. In every case you will find that the number of reds is on average the same.
This will be the case whoever does it, and no matter how many times. If that doesn't prove it's not just an opinion, I don't know what does.
There are plenty of methods and systems which aren't based on GF, but they are still fallacies. If you believe that sequences come in trends and you are more likely to win by following the trend, that's called the inverse gambler's fallacy.
If you believe that some patterns are more likely than others, and try to design a system around that, this is also a fallacy because ALL patterns are equally likely, but it's not gambler's fallacy.
Gambler's believe all kinds of nonsense, there is a list of some fallacies here:
nolinks://nolinks.math.byu.edu/~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html (nolinks://nolinks.math.byu.edu/~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html)
How many times have you heard this one on gambling forums?
*
Quit while you are ahead each time and you'll never lose: (i.e., keep chasing your lost money until you recover it.) This belief is a hallmark of pathological gamblers.
"No, Gambler's Fallacy is not opinion, it's a fact" >>> And thats fine, also knowing that AP (cough) is another form of gamblers fallacy. :sarcastic:
Ken
Back to the original question. I was a philosophy major back in college and the one thing I learned from it was that logic is a tool used by humans to justify the conclusions they've already come to, which are non-logical and usually the result of emotional and psychological factors. Of course the opinion I'm expressing right now is subject to the same dynamics.
Sam
Good one ken, you just made it public that you don`t know what either of the 2 terms means.
The sad truth is without Gambler's Fallacy there is little to talk about on Roulette chatrooms.
Basing a gambling system on math/statistics that is taught in school only allows folks to build Money Management systems.
I must confess reading some of the squirrelly, insane, and convoluted, systems based on Gambler's Fallacy is entertainment for me - better than watching TV.
But I can't sit around and let rookie gamblers read this dribble and lose money only to find out that there is nothing to any of the systems based on Gambler's Fallacy - to say nothing would be diabolical.....
...................then this without any doubt would also include TURBO`S from the furthest back. :diablo:
Quote from: birdhands on March 08, 2011, 10:59:58 AM
Back to the original question. I was a philosophy major back in college and the one thing I learned from it was that logic is a tool used by humans to justify the conclusions they've already come to, which are non-logical and usually the result of emotional and psychological factors. Of course the opinion I'm expressing right now is subject to the same dynamics.
Sam
That's one use of logic, but it can't be the only one. That's a bad misuse of logic and if it were true then there would be no science or technology. Logic and evidence is all we have to stay in touch with reality, which isn't only something we construct (as the Postmodernists would have it) but something independent of us.
Quote from: Kelly on March 08, 2011, 01:20:14 PM
Good one ken, you just made it public that you don`t know what either of the 2 terms means.
;D
Quote from: Kelly on March 08, 2011, 01:14:22 AM
I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ?
Let's see if that holds true for all conditions. Someone sees 15 reds so black is due, this thinking = fallacy.
But someone else sees a streak of singles change to several continuous groupings of repeated reds then blacks. A dominate absence of singles is what it has changed to. So is the observation of seeing what is currently happening a fallacy if observing what is happening is the goal and not determining something is due? What if someone also observed that for the past two hours changes occur that tend to last for 20 to 30 spins in their type before changing to the other type, like from singles dominant to doubles, triples, etc...
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 08, 2011, 06:29:48 PM
So is the observation of seeing what is currently happening a fallacy if observing what is happening is the goal and not determining something is due?
Who cares if something is due or not? The whole point of observing is to look for a clue as to where to place the next bet. Fallacies are irrelevant, all anybody should care about is the next bet. Do I have to drag you thru all of this AGAIN? Once was enough..
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 08, 2011, 06:29:48 PM
Let's see if that holds true for all conditions. Someone sees 15 reds so black is due, this thinking = fallacy.
But someone else sees a streak of singles change to several continuous groupings of repeated reds then blacks. A dominate absence of singles is what it has changed to. So is the observation of seeing what is currently happening a fallacy if observing what is happening is the goal and not determining something is due? What if someone also observed that for the past two hours changes occur that tend to last for 20 to 30 spins in their type before changing to the other type, like from singles dominant to doubles, triples, etc...
Say what?
Gambler's Fallacy is based upon God keeping score - how many reds and how many blacks and God must then produce the opposite color or the universe will end. Poor God, what a mess he's gotten himself into.
Do you guys really believe in this stuff?
Gamblers Fallacy requires a memory of past results and that's a totally insane idea; its a fallacy....
Quote from: cheese on March 08, 2011, 09:47:44 PM
Who cares if something is due or not? The whole point of observing is to look for a clue as to where to place the next bet. Fallacies are irrelevant, all anybody should care about is the next bet. Do I have to drag you thru all of this AGAIN? Once was enough..
Don't get too big a head there Spike. I was asking a question of Kelly who generalized that "I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ?"
I was attempting to get him to admit that there might be another reason for looking at past spins. But this is interesting too. You see all this as another opportunity for you to slip another clue into the mix. Another empty clue that you are unwilling to explain in detail I'll bet. Why don't you drag all of us through this one more time. I got real news for you. Your long time hunch that even if you explain this to others they wouldn't be able to do it very well is actually true. Don't believe me. Try it. You can explain reading randomness to them and they will struggle with it.
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 08, 2011, 10:33:23 PM
Say what?
Gambler's Fallacy is based upon God keeping score - how many reds and how many blacks and God must then produce the opposite color or the universe will end. Poor God, what a mess he's gotten himself into.
Do you guys really believe in this stuff?
Gamblers Fallacy requires a memory of past results and that's a totally insane idea; its a fallacy....
You are so far in the O-Zone that it's best just to leave you in it.
Anyone can see that you know less about God than you do about the current state of randomness from a live Roulette wheel. In a way that's a sin and you are already on the road to Roulette hell. This is great too. You do this for entertainment purposes, like a break from skiing.
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 08, 2011, 10:48:19 PM
You are so far in the O-Zone that it's best just to leave you in it.
Anyone can see that you know less about God than you do about the current state of randomness from a live Roulette wheel. In a way that's a sin and you are already on the road to Roulette hell. This is great too. You do this for entertainment purposes, like a break from skiing.
Jeez don't insult me - I'm a snowboarder and not a skier.
All you guys have to do is supply a link (Not to a fellow UFO website) where we can read about patterns in random numbers and how they then forecast the future.
There are no links and this is all jibberish.
You guys to proclaim all this nonsense can't demo any of your theories or concepts - that should be simple as pie if they actually existed. You don't have to give away your system, just a demo of how this all works.
The future can't be forecasted from the past with much success - if that were possible, the same folks would be winning the PowerBall Lottery every week. The future is unknown and can be virtually anything.
Beyond the sun rising each day what other predictions happen with enough certainty that you are willing to bet money on?
Mother Nature works on simplicity - everything in this world is simplifying as it evolves - Roulette systems based upon all kinds of complicated ideas will never work - if there is anyway to beat Roulette it will be very very simple.
That hasn't happened in 300 years of Roulette's history and I doubt it will ever happen.
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 09, 2011, 12:02:40 AM
Jeez don't insult me - I'm a snowboarder and not a skier.
Yeah! You are a snow boarder OK. You are probably dragged behind a truck to plow the parking lot. You know what a snow boarder is? Someone that sleeps on a stick. You guys earned nothing. One edge is like that pathetic thing you whip out once in a while. You will never have the life experience that I already been there and done that. I've always kept back on your kind. But you are a perfect target. So enjoy your grand outdoor wilderness experience, yep that's right, a pathetic weenie roast. That's all you are.
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 09, 2011, 12:24:25 AM
Yeah! You are a snow boarder OK. You are probably dragged behind a truck to plow the parking lot. You know what a snow boarder is? Someone that sleeps on a stick. You guys earned nothing. One edge is like that pathetic thing you whip out once in a while. You will never have the life experience that I already been there and done that. I've always kept back on your kind. But you are a perfect target. So enjoy your grand outdoor wilderness experience, yep that's right, a pathetic weenie roast. That's all you are.
I can't offer you the help you desperately need - my advice is to seek an anger management professional forthwith.
Since I know you won't do that you must realize that when you proclaim you have invented a new science of reading randomness there will be skeptics - I'm one of them.
It is abundantly clear that you have no new insight into random numbers, have no gambling system that works, loses with any such system, and probably can't pass the age restriction to get into a casino.
You're the one proclaiming this nonsense, you're the one responsible to prove it. Throwing a temper tantrum might work with your parents but not in an adult world that demands proof to totally insane ideas.....
All I ever get from you is that you are scared that I really will share something of value. That makes you Spike the mathboyz. Big whoopy.
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 08, 2011, 10:42:21 PM
Your long time hunch that even if you explain this to others they wouldn't be able to do it very well is actually true.
You wanna teach and not play mind games? Here's what you do. Go to Dublin.net and tell us what the next bet is. If it wins, tell us why you picked it. If it loses, tell us why you picked it. Do this over and over for days and weeks and people will very quickly catch on. But you can't do that, you have no idea where to place the next bet, all you have is tiresome theory. If you knew where to bet, you'd be doing it.
so much arguing already.
i think every system relies on gamblers fallacy, even law of the third.
gamblers fallacy about something changing and law of the third is about even distrubution (at least i think) then they are both the same as they both change. if roultette stayed the same then we would all be winners and casinos would no longer be.
if there is a system that dosent change then it would lose, i believe all systems are based on gamblers fallacy, even roulette it self is one big gamblers fallacy (everything changes in roulette), how people think this is not true is beyound me.
i also believe if one colour is constant then its due to change, think about it, has anyone seen 100 reds or blacks in a row, when people talk about this matter they always talk about it from a small sample like 5 blacks, how about 40 or 50 then i would say it will change soon.
anyway thats my thought on this subject
Quote from: darrynf on March 09, 2011, 06:06:05 AM
so much arguing already.
I think every system relies on gamblers fallacy, even law of the third.
gamblers fallacy about something changing and law of the third is about even distrubution (at least I think) then they are both the same as they both change. if roultette stayed the same then we would all be winners and casinos would no longer be.
if there is a system that dosent change then it would lose, I believe all systems are based on gamblers fallacy, even roulette it self is one big gamblers fallacy (everything changes in roulette), how people think this is not true is beyound me.
I also believe if one colour is constant then its due to change, think about it, has anyone seen 100 reds or blacks in a row, when people talk about this matter they always talk about it from a small sample like 5 blacks, how about 40 or 50 then I would say it will change soon.
anyway thats my thought on this subject
We actually agree on something - the Gambler's Fallacy is at the heart of 95% of the systems here!
The Law of the Third is just as worthless, in 37 spins you won't have all numbers 0 - 36 showing up; that's the very definition of random numbers - they skip and repeat randomly.
All the systems that rely on the two above concepts are totally worthless - unless you sell one of them for money; then it has a purpose - fraud.
thats all we agree on mate.
i dont care much for a blackjack player whos says roulette is unbeatable. i can beat it, but for how long i dont know.
keep riding the wave.
Quote from: Kelly on March 08, 2011, 01:20:14 PM
Good one ken, you just made it public that you don`t know what either of the 2 terms means.
Thats fine Kelly, keep chasin the AP dream. :girl_wacko: :sarcastic:
So my question remains for Kelly and any other AP (cough) fellas. Can you name any betting styles (methods) that are NOT related to past numbers (gamblers fallacy)? So far, we have ZERO. I'll give it a few more days before I really start to post. I'm trying to make a point that the AP (cough) fellas are getting closer to. Just say it, you know you want to. :sarcastic:
Ken
i remember reading about ap somewhere, something about pretending ?
why do you call people ap mr j ?
thats just insulting people you dont know, i could be wrong and if i am im sorry but it dosent seem very nice any back to the question.
is there a system not based on anything, if there was then it would be purely random, i dont know know of any system.
you wouldnt even call it a system would you, you might as well just pick a number.
Quote from: Mr J on March 10, 2011, 12:22:06 AM
Thats fine Kelly, keep chasin the AP dream. :girl_wacko: :sarcastic:
So my question remains for Kelly and any other AP (cough) fellas. Can you name any betting styles (methods) that are NOT related to past numbers (gamblers fallacy)? So far, we have ZERO. I'll give it a few more days before I really start to post. I'm trying to make a point that the AP (cough) fellas are getting closer to. Just say it, you know you want to. :sarcastic:
Ken
Sure the Maui Sunset system:
Bet as slow as possible, table minimums, and drink as fast as possible.
As far as I know there is no Roulette system out there that beats it.
For your bet just look at the last number spun and look at the seconds on your digital watch - if an even second then bet the last color, if an odd second then bet the opposite color.
If you don't want to use any history then Even seconds is Black and Odd seconds is Red - same results.
Laugh if you want but nobody has demonstrated a more profitable Roulette system - nobody.
Lots of crazy systems, lots of bragging, but no proof. You can easily repeat my results yourself.....
what i also fined is people tend to think either law of the third or gamblers fallacy, why not both.
i also know people think the last spin isnt related to the next spin, i believe that as well, i also believe you can trends, well its all really to do with how you play roulette.
why cant people believe all 3 to be true, one thing i do know is math will never beat roulette as the game it self is belt on math and is an amazing math game that cant be beaten by math so it forces people to explore different ways.
i think the game it self is a master piece but its when you dig deep you find things that tend to be 50/50, im not talking about e/c and everyone has there way of play but most dont work.
it really is an amazing game, just not so easey to beat lol
sorry mr j, i know it has nothing to do with what you were asking.
Quote from: darrynf on March 10, 2011, 12:50:13 AM
what I also fined is people tend to think either law of the third or gamblers fallacy, why not both.
I also know people think the last spin isnt related to the next spin, I believe that as well, I also believe you can trends, well its all really to do with how you play roulette.
why cant people believe all 3 to be true, one thing I do know is math will never beat roulette as the game it self is belt on math and is an amazing math game that cant be beaten by math so it forces people to explore different ways.
I think the game it self is a master piece but its when you dig deep you find things that tend to be 50/50, im not talking about e/c and everyone has there way of play but most dont work.
it really is an amazing game, just not so easey to beat lol
sorry mr j, I know it has nothing to do with what you were asking.
I don't believe that past random numbers can be used to forecast future spins because a memory is needed.
Where is this memory? Who controls it? Just how accurate is that memory?
This is not that unusual - those folks who believe that there is a hereafter also believe memories are stored somewhere - where and how that storage of trillions of neurons takes place is never asked.
It's almost as if it's programmed into our DNA......
Im pretty sure I know where you are heading ken, you want me to say that advantage players needs past numbers to make their prediction. Yeah well, you just dont know what you are talking about, they need past spins but couldnt care less about the actual numbers. For instance a visual ballistic player who wants to find an average bounce lenght for the ball, he needs past spins but NOT the numbers. He will track that the ball dropped at X spot, could be zero and ended up at 10. Both numbers will be noted but just to get the value between 0 and 10 which is 18. 18 pockets is what goes into the tracking NOT zero or 10.
For someone who talks so much about advantage play you know very little about it, you even talk more about it than I do.
Here is an average bounce chart. You see that the ball can bounce just about all poicket lenghts, so there is no guarantee for a hit in a particular spin so an advantage only comes over a period of spins where you allow the peak to manifest.
The visual player knows roughly where the ball is gonna hit the rotor so he has in this case his bets placed around 20 - 22 pockets away from where the ball first strikes. No reference to past numbers at all.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg509.imageshack.us%2Fimg509%2F8905%2Fscatter17mmteflonjb3.jpg&hash=6f645d49fc341e44a7e71310a94f6ff67325766e)
maui you always get it wrong,
law of the third is about even distrubution and gamblers fallacy is about something changing.
where dose it say anywhere that this has to do with past events or numbers, no where, you piss me off cause your words are shit just like gizmotron, you and giz should start a thread about yourself.
i believe all 3 are true, and you dont need to know the past to work this out, not one of those meanings say anything about past results, get a clue and stop arguing, who cares about your drink and bullshit method.
you have no idea about roulette cause you dont want to know it you just want to slag off everyone and say its impossible to beat cause you cant beat it. and dont bother with your bullshit about prooving anything cause you arent special nor are you worth proving anything to you, stay at your casino get drunk and dont bother with your b.s on here, sick of it. you have nothing worth saying.
this thread just died for me.
Quote from: darrynf on March 10, 2011, 01:31:02 AM
maui you always get it wrong,
law of the third is about even distrubution and gamblers fallacy is about something changing.
where dose it say anywhere that this has to do with past events or numbers, no where, you piss me off cause your words are shit just like gizmotron, you and giz should start a thread about yourself.
I believe all 3 are true, and you dont need to know the past to work this out, not one of those meanings say anything about past results, get a clue and stop arguing, who cares about your drink and bullshit method.
you have no idea about roulette cause you dont want to know it you just want to slag off everyone and say its impossible to beat cause you cant beat it. and dont bother with your bullshit about prooving anything cause you arent special nor are you worth proving anything to you, stay at your casino get drunk and dont bother with your b.s on here, sick of it. you have nothing worth saying.
this thread just died for me.
Of course a memory is involved!
Statistics only give us odds - if you want to bastardize that and say that out of 37 spins only 10 numbers showed up then the other 27 numbers must appear or evil consequences will result, go right ahead.
A memory is needed to remember the 10 numbers spun and somehow make the other 27 numbers appear before the first 10 did.
A memory is required.
Now if you want to say that in 1,000,000 spins all 37 will show up evenly that's perfectly ok - but there is no way to use that to our advantage.
Gambler's Fallacy is exactly the same - 10 reds show up and then 10 blacks must appear - a memory is needed for the 10 reds.
This is all a crock - both Gambler's Fallacy and the third thing - totally garbage....
I have a friend who does better than maui.
He walks up to the table and throws down his rewards card with $1000 for chips.
The dealer puts his card in the machine then he just walks around the games room jiggling his chips for an hour or so, every now and then leans over a busy table and pretends to bet.
After an hour or so he collects his rewards card and cashes in his chips for $1000.
Goes and has lunch then returns to do the same thing over again.
This guy gets free drinks, free meal vouchers, vip rate accomodation, free parking, etc, and he almost never makes a single bet.
The guy's a champion! ;D
Quote from: bombus on March 10, 2011, 01:44:16 AM
I have a friend who does better than maui.
He walks up to the table and throws down his rewards card with $1000 for chips.
The dealer puts his card in the machine then he just walks around the games room jiggling his chips for an hour or so, every now and then leans over a busy table and pretends to bet.
After an hour or so he collects his rewards card and cashes in his chips for $1000.
Goes and has lunch then returns to do the same thing over again.
This guy gets free drinks, free meal vouchers, vip rate accomodation, free parking, etc, and he almost never makes a single bet.
The guy's a champion! ;D
All Right!! I finally found something that will improve my Roulette playing!
That's what I'm talking about!
Thank you so much.....
Thanks for the link!
nolinks://nolinks.math.byu.edu/~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html (nolinks://nolinks.math.byu.edu/~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html)
@ maui
i dont get you, you say you dont need a memory and then you say you need a memory, which one is it?
you can believe what you want, just because you think its not true dosent make it true, just because what i believe dosent mean its true either but either way i dont badger people like you do.
you dont need a memory in terms of whats happen before you got there, i guess if you were to record then yes i guess its a typ of memory, fact is roulette is roulette, its how we chose to play roulette.
roulette dose what it dose and cant be forcast, i never said it could be but i do go off the past results and i get hits, if you want to call it luck then thats what you believe not me. i never believe in luck.
anyway tired of your b.s maui, you never contrabute anything to anything apart from bad mouth all systems, waste of space.
@Kelly >> What do you think of Herb/Snowman/Caleb/Keyser/Farnsworth3, TITLE of his thread at the Wiz site? >>> The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter.
Hmmm :nono:
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 10, 2011, 12:22:06 AM
So my question remains for Kelly and any other AP (cough) fellas. Can you name any betting styles (methods) that are NOT related to past numbers (gamblers fallacy)? So far, we have ZERO. I'll give it a few more days before I really start to post. I'm trying to make a point that the AP (cough) fellas are getting closer to. Just say it, you know you want to. :sarcastic:
Ken
Why is AP not the gambler's fallacy? I've already explained it in other posts but a simple analogy might help. Suppose it hasn't rained for a few weeks and you say, "rain is due". That's an example of the gambler's fallacy because whether it rains tomorrow doesn't depend on whether it has rained or not in the last few weeks. The correct way to predict the weather is to look at atmospheric conditions and all the physics which actually cause the weather. Weather forecasters do look at past weather conditions in order to make their predictions, but this doesn't imply that the rain or lack of it in the past is a predictor of rain tomorrow. AP tries to predict the outcomes in roulette in the same way that weather forecasters try to predict the weather, that's why it isn't the gambler's fallacy.
I assume "related to past numbers" means in the current session. So if you don't need to look at the marquee in order to make your bet but are still using a system (or "method") then it doesn't involve the gambler's fallacy, right?
Based on that definition, there are plenty of systems which don't involve the gambler's fallacy (but are still fallacious). There is a whole class of systems which try to "capture" some events assuming that they're more rare or common than others. You don't need to look at the marquee or record outcomes in your current session to use these systems, so they don't commit the gambler's fallacy.
Even simple "bet selections" like "follow the last" aren't gambler's fallacy because you don't look at past outcomes, you just choose your bets in a certain way, over and over. These methods are fallacious because they assume things which aren't true, in this case believing that there are more streaks in the game than chops. Obviously, you would have had to have looked at past outcomes at some time in order to have come to this (erroneous) conclusion, but you're not concerned with past outcomes in the CURRENT session.
ken, all your misconceptions come from a lack of understanding of statistical independence.
Quote from: darrynf on March 10, 2011, 02:53:52 AM
@ maui
I dont get you, you say you dont need a memory and then you say you need a memory, which one is it?
you can believe what you want, just because you think its not true dosent make it true, just because what I believe dosent mean its true either but either way I dont badger people like you do.
you dont need a memory in terms of whats happen before you got there, I guess if you were to record then yes I guess its a typ of memory, fact is roulette is roulette, its how we chose to play roulette.
roulette dose what it dose and cant be forcast, I never said it could be but I do go off the past results and I get hits, if you want to call it luck then thats what you believe not me. I never believe in luck.
anyway tired of your b.s maui, you never contrabute anything to anything apart from bad mouth all systems, waste of space.
You must be thinking of some other Maui Sunset if you think memory, in Roulette, exists.
I looked at many of the Roulette chatrooms and 90% of all of them deal with UFO topics - junk science and math.
I am just a reflection of the non UFO gambler - one that believes in math and science and that junk science and math must not play ANY part of a successful Roulette system.
I know that this is a real challenge to many UFO experts and feel threatened by someone just saying NO to Junk Science/Math.
Doesn't bother me in the slightest as you probably have figured out by now.....
P.S.
Junk science is all around us all the time. Global Warming is 100% Junk Science, 10% ethanol in your gasoline is 100% junk science. 95% of the news on the major networks is based on Junk News. There is always a motive for using Junk Science/Math/News - what those folks preach just doesn't work so they create an "authority" (Junk) to hang their stupid ideas on.
If you ever want to make money in Roulette you've got to dump Junk Science/Math - they don't work and any system that uses ANY part of them won't work. If you see a system that seems to work and uses Junk Science/Math you are looking at a magician at work - slight of hand - a hoax to get your money....
I am new here. So hi to all.
Been playing for about 20 years now. Nice to be part of this community. Darrenf, I must agree with the likes of Mike and MauiSunset. The wheel does not have a memory. Your system that you use you mention is about past results. That's great if it wins for you. Really speaking though you could of used a system grabbing numbers from the air. You would have the same results. Casinos do not worry about roulette because they know it's the 'sure win' thing for them. If you watched national geographic clip about the ritz team, you will understand their view. They do not believe in any way that the game can be beaten. And they are almost 100% correct.
You use past results because you have to make sense out of randomness. By fooling your own mind you think you have something. Your mind needs to make sense of unsensible things. The thing is that you are just fooling yourself. Past results are just that. They are history. They do not have bearing on future events.
Hope this makes sense to you my friend.
Z
.................and the UNLISTED stuff does NOT work either.Take your pick. Therefore let`s rely on dumb luck because roulette is a game of chance but not a game of skill.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!.
? Hi Nathan. It is definately a game of skill. ;)
If it is definetely skill then it`s back to the drawing board :o :haha:
N.D.
HAPPY WINNINGS either way with or without skill .
Quote from: Mr J on March 10, 2011, 07:43:29 AM
@Kelly >> What do you think of Herb/Snowman/Caleb/Keyser/Farnsworth3, TITLE of his thread at the Wiz site? >>> The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter.
Hmmm :nono:
Ken
Can you give me a link to that forum on the Wiz's site?, I can't find it anywhere.
Thanks.
I somewhat agree with some of what you just said. You said that I could use any system to grab numbers out of the air. That's very true. I have said something like that in the past on this forum. You don't have to use trends found in past spins to discover current conditions. Things like wins streaks, being a hot player, the table is really being good to you right now. People give meaning to things so that they can communicate with others and relate to them too.
So if I use a systematic syntax for identifying my own interpretation for the characteristics of randomness it's not the roulette wheel that has the memory. It's me that has the memory. If I get good at my method then all I have is a bet selection process that helps me identify win streaks. How is it that I'm fooling myself? I have no expectation other than discovering the current conditions. I think it's you that are fooling yourself. "Past results are just that. They are history. They do not have bearing on future events." The don't need to Zindrod. Who is suggesting that they do? If you look closer you will see that it is you that is implying this. Let's be real clear here. Using past spin results to see information that is historically current is not about making predictions. For me it's about finding things that are currently continuing. BTW, that data is 100% accurate. It's a representation of the exact current conditions.
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 02:05:32 PM
I am new here. So hi to all.
Been playing for about 20 years now. Nice to be part of this community. Darrenf, I must agree with the likes of Mike and MauiSunset. The wheel does not have a memory. Your system that you use you mention is about past results. That's great if it wins for you. Really speaking though you could of used a system grabbing numbers from the air. You would have the same results. Casinos do not worry about roulette because they know it's the 'sure win' thing for them. If you watched national geographic clip about the ritz team, you will understand their view. They do not believe in any way that the game can be beaten. And they are almost 100% correct.
You use past results because you have to make sense out of randomness. By fooling your own mind you think you have something. Your mind needs to make sense of unsensible things. The thing is that you are just fooling yourself. Past results are just that. They are history. They do not have bearing on future events.
Hope this makes sense to you my friend.
Z
MIke here is the link to the Wizard`s forum
nolinks://wizardofvegas.com/forums/ (nolinks://wizardofvegas.com/forums/)
couldnt of said it better gizmo, you surprise me at times.
i never said i could predict roulette and roulette it self has no memory, i do, pretty much what gizmo said.
thats how i chose to play when i get a chance to play.
anyway i still stand by with what i said, i think all 3 are true for roulette.
in away i think its the ones who think roulette is unbeatable that really dont understand roulette. of cause its beatable and not by forcasting but by whats still happening and if you dont understand that then you shouldnt be here.
anyway its just my viewe on it dosent mean im any less right or wrong to the next person.
System Testers Fallacy: "The belief that, for a roulette system or method
to be successful, it has to win against any and every unique stream of
numbers. "
Every Player experiences a unique stream of numbers in each session
that they play. With the exception of very short sessions, it is unlikely that
a Player will ever experience a repeat of that stream of numbers in a future
session.
It's of little value to system testing, for a System Tester to use unrealistically
long streams of numbers that don't accurately represent the Player's session
lengths.
A system or method of play does not have to win against every unique
stream of numbers to be successful. It just has to win within the sessions
that it is being used.
What some System Testers don't realize is that what they end up testing is
NOT whether or not a system or method can be played successfully, but
instead, whether or not the conditions within that particular unique session
were favorable for the system or method to succeed.
Whether or not the conditions within a particular session are favorable for
the system or method to succeed, is the responsibility of the Player to
determine, not the System Tester.
The system or method that you use will win those times that you are able
to know and recognize favorable conditions within the unique stream of
numbers that make up your particular session. And those times that you
are unable to recognize favorable conditions. . . Don't Bet.
VKM
Quote from: Gizmotron link=topic=18192. msg130932#msg130932 date=1299779225
I somewhat agree with some of what you just said. You said that I could use any system to grab numbers out of the air. That's very true. I have said something like that in the past on this forum. You don't have to use trends found in past spins to discover current conditions. Things like wins streaks, being a hot player, the table is really being good to you right now. People give meaning to things so that they can communicate with others and relate to them too.
So if I use a systematic syntax for identifying my own interpretation for the characteristics of randomness it's not the roulette wheel that has the memory. It's me that has the memory. If I get good at my method then all I have is a bet selection process that helps me identify win streaks. How is it that I'm fooling myself? I have no expectation other than discovering the current conditions. I think it's you that are fooling yourself. "Past results are just that. They are history. They do not have bearing on future events. " The don't need to Zindrod. Who is suggesting that they do? If you look closer you will see that it is you that is implying this. Let's be real clear here. Using past spin results to see information that is historically current is not about making predictions. For me it's about finding things that are currently continuing. BTW, that data is 100% accurate. It's a representation of the exact current conditions.
Your own interpretation . . . . you are fooling your own mind. There are no current trends as you put it. The next spin could go anywhere. Off course you are using history to determine whatever you think is a pattern. That is unfortunately wrong.
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 03:17:42 PM
Your own interpretation . . . . you are fooling your own mind. There are no current trends as you put it. The next spin could go anywhere. Off course you are using history to determine whatever you think is a pattern. That is unfortunately wrong.
What a joke. What is this? Are you the new and improved snowman/herb?
Hey SodzodMan, the next spin confirms continuation of the effect or it confirms the effect ending. This situation can't exist without the current conditions combined with the next spin. After the next spin has occurred then the process continues as long as it can keep continuing. But you see nothing, hear nothing, and know nothing. Kind of like a funny fat German sargent on an old TV show.
ok, did not realize this was such a hostile forum. Also didn't realize that there are still people from 1820 around. Look my friend I'm not looking for an arguement. I know the simple facts. Whatever boggles your mind, please continue. If you are happy with silly methods please continue. Not that I have to tell you. You will anyway.
For the record the next spin is a continuation of the previous, correct. The thing is that you don't know which of the many many directions it will go to. Grow up.
Common gizmo, you promised the casino would be gone when you started your teaching After 10 private students and your own publich funny ground, they are still there. Shares are going down tonight though. I don`t think you and all your students is whats causing it though. Or maybe they heard about you on Wall Street ? Naaa.......
Ken, whatever. Can`t find the board anymore. You very convienyently ducked a reply to my post, wonder why. Nothing to say ? No comprende ? No fit in agenda ?
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 03:40:50 PM
For the record the next spin is a continuation of the previous, correct. The thing is that you don't know which of the many many directions it will go to. Grow up.
Big deal that I don't know of the many directions it will go to. You act like I'm claiming that I do know. If my next ten guesses all lose then I know that I have hit a steep downturn. If my next ten bets win then I know I have been in a winning streak. That's all I need to know to whip butt on the casinos. If I use a well defined method to illustrate that process for me and it works for me, guess what? It does this no matter what you believe. You can assume all you want to. You can be wrong and that's OK too. It's real easy. You are wrong. See? I can do this too.
Welcome to the forum. You already have allies that will support your beliefs. I'm the only one around here that has crossed the lines. I'm teaching this and you can't stop me. When others gain this skill and actually go into casinos and win with it then you will need a well constructed excuse. Or, you could just chicken out and leave. I'm going ahead and publishing it all here on this forum. Like it or not.
Quote from: Kelly on March 10, 2011, 03:58:32 PM
Common gizmo, you promised the casino would be gone when you started your teaching After 10 private students and your own publich funny ground, they are still there. Shares are going down tonight though. I don`t think you and all your students is whats causing it though. Or maybe they heard about you on Wall Street ? Naaa.......
Oh, did I really say that? In your mind I'm sure you saw it that way. I never said that people would be able to do this in the first week that I started teaching it. I said once this is known. If ten people take down a million each then the casinos around the world will want to know what it was. They will act. Then the mathboyz will want to know what it was too. So keep playing your part. The guy that was too late for the party. And he even got a personal invitation too. So that makes you exceptionally unique.
Fair enough Gizmoron.
You do that. I believe I should be dead in about 30 years time. If I'm not. I should have had enough time to figure out a proper appology. We both know though that you won't be able to do what you have said in a lifetime and more. That or you might just be truely crazy. If you are truly crazy, my condolences to you. Anyway, my appologies if I upset you. I am right though you know. about having instant so-called alliances. I didn't know we were at war. But nice to know we have other clear thinking guys around here. I was getting slightly worried.
In your last post you mention 10 students taking 1 mil each....
How much have you taken? Come on! You must be a 10 year old.
Hello Gizmo,
What would this world be like if everyone thought that something couldn't be done, just because they couldn't do it? I get you.
VKM
yes, like fitting a house in a shoe box
They haven`t taken anything except a lot of our time. If it wasen`t so amusing i wouldn`t read it on and off. I think whats keeping gizmo from conquer the casinos is that he is 2 inch short of a bankroll and 4 inch short of a way to play. All hes got of value is an unstable internet connection which comes in handy when things gets too specific. He is THE MASTER of seeing a trend after it has been there. No one above, no one besides. He can tell you when he has lost 10 times and when he has won 10 times.
Just in case you couldn`t do it yourself.
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 04:10:12 PM
Anyway, my appologies if I upset you. I am right though you know.
You haven't upset me. I'm just tickled pink. It's funny though. You guys are all the same. You have that same need to inform everyone that you are right. And even more important that others are wrong. It's almost like you are being driven crazy by those that refuse to listen to your wisdom. I hope that doesn't upset you. I mean you guys never give up. The group you belong to is called the mathboyz. Like I said, welcome to the forum.
G'day,
Maui, Mike, Zindrod,
You fellows are not only wrong with your beliefs concerning Roulette (or in my case Baccarat)
but also in the concerted belief that we either have to explain or prove / test our ways of winning!
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 04:21:52 PM
yes, like fitting a house in a shoe box
Good point, How big is the shoe box OR the house, if it doesn't fit , change the size of at least one of the items!
Glenn.
Hi Mini,
No disrespect but I didn't ask for any proof. I know the simple (and they are simple) facts and so do the casinos.
what are the biggest shoes worn by human? What is the biggest shoe box? what is the smallest house a human lives in? Come on mate. It's like you are trying to tell people that red is blue.
Look maybe I'm at the wrong forum. I have seen to much heartbreak in the past with so-called proven systems.
Fact. A guy that went and lost a million bucks in a casino because he had a fool proof system. It was his inheritance. He went to his car in the parking lot and blew out his brains. True story. The facts of pie in the sky dreams. Sky castles and the like.
Hey guys whatever makes you happy.
G'day Zindrod,
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 04:25:40 PM
I know the simple (and they are simple) facts and so do the casinos.
The fact that the casinos know is that there are more losers than winners and that they take in more money than they pay out!
That is different to the belief of some people that there is no system / method of winning a profit consistently,
(in my case EVERY visit)!
I will not be continuing to discuss, I don't 'need' to try and convince you.
Glenn.
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 04:13:32 PM
In your last post you mention 10 students taking 1 mil each....
How much have you taken? Come on! You must be a 10 year old.
No I did not say that. I said ten people. I don't consider people here as being a student of mine. I'm just sharing a way to learn to read randomness and to use it effectively. It's completely on the reader to do all the work. I kept this all secret up until about six months ago when I did have students. It was from that experience that I discovered that you could lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. This is impossible without practice and real playing experience. But guess what? So is being a lead guitarist instantly just because you purchased your first Fender Stratocaster. Every difficult skill requires work. I'm laying the keel on this worthy ship. It will take others to validate it. I'm just making sure it happens.
Regarding casinos changing. Just one family forced the casinos to change the game of Roulette after taking 1.5 million off European casinos. It effected the entire gaming industry. Now deal with that reality. It's a far better concept than guessing one's age.
As far as I know that family were playing bias wheels....
There has never been any recorded, notable win, that was not related to advantage play.
One family has taken more than that and still does. Kaisan and his son. They has both lately, 3 months ago, been barred from Grosvenor and Gala casinos in London.
Quote from: Kelly on March 10, 2011, 05:00:27 PM
One family has taken more than that and still does. Kaisan and his son. They has both lately, 3 months ago, been barred from Grosvenor and Gala casinos in London.
When randomness itself is known to be an advantage then what effect will that have on the casinos?
Quote from: Zindrod on March 10, 2011, 04:50:57 PM
There has never been any recorded, notable win, that was not related to advantage play.
Is that you Herb? :nono:
Ken
Quote from: Kelly on March 10, 2011, 03:58:32 PM
Common gizmo, you promised the casino would be gone when you started your teaching After 10 private students and your own publich funny ground, they are still there. Shares are going down tonight though. I don`t think you and all your students is whats causing it though. Or maybe they heard about you on Wall Street ? Naaa.......
Ken, whatever. Can`t find the board anymore. You very convienyently ducked a reply to my post, wonder why. Nothing to say ? No comprende ? No fit in agenda ?
Can you tell me which post it was again, thanks bud.
Ken
Gizmo ,
Here is the 64, 000 Dollar question :
!.) How much did you or any of your students have taken away from the casinos within the past 30 days?
2.) And if so , how much in US Dollars . NOT in units or percentage of bankroll but in DOLLARS.
3.) Did you or any of your students walk away with ALL negotiable chips of only 1 roulette table?
Nathan Detroit
ok......(meant for Gizmotron)
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on March 10, 2011, 05:30:40 PM
Gizmo ,
Here is the 64, 000 Dollar question :
!.) How much did you or any of your students have taken away from the casinos within the past 30 days?
I have no idea how the students are doing. I more than doubled my bankroll for one session yesterday. It was one table, one session. I hit a great winning streak and rode it to the first loss. I more than quadrupled my win goal.
If I can't teach anyone to do this then it won't matter me proving it. What I need is for others to learn it and prove it. Validation can only come from others.
Ok.... I don't like to give figures but ...
Ok guys. I'm off to bed. Nice meeting you all although we have different views.
Warm regards
Z
As long as you achieved positive resukts.
N.D.
this thread is out of hand, roulette is just roulette, we tend to use statesments about the game like gamblers fallacy and other terms its just how we play the game, gamblers fallacy is just away of playing the game and thats all.
the way i play is watching and seeing whats happen and i win from it, call it what you want.
the fact ir roulette is random and it cant be predicted, its all how you play the game!!!
i have my beliefes and to tell me im wrong is like telling a christiain they arent christian, its just what we think.
stop bickering, if gizmo is teaching people then good on him he may have a very good strategy or not, i dont like the guy much but his beliefes are no wronger then yours and mine, to think you know roulette and tell us we are wrong is bull.
we all voice our opinions but to badger someone about there beliefes are wrong, grow up. how cares what someone makes, they have there way and if it works for them then good, but get back on to the subject and stop talking about shit you know nothing about.
In Black Jack we don't use Junk Science and Junk Math - we just use old fashioned statistics.
Coming over to the Roulette world requires you to wear garlic around your neck, throw out the math and statistics I was taught in college as an engineer, and believe in supernatural forces.
You can't build any kind of Roulette system based on Vampire/Werewolf/UFO technology - it just won't work folks.
The folks who practice this stuff act a witchdoctors and want to control the technology that they concoct in their minds......
im not aware that roulette players use junk science or junk math, maybe some do.
you say you use stats, well hate to say it but so do roulette players!
I dont know any system based on werewolfs or vampires or ufo's, which none of that has to do with roulette, the problem with math people is that they will never beat roulette cause their minds cant comprehend it cause in theory roulette cant be beaten by math and any system based on math wont work in my opinion.
most systems wont work on roulette and my one may fail at some stage but with the right money management it can be in your favour, most people wont know how to beat roulette and never will but it can be beaten by looking at patterns, maybe they dont exist, all I know is that it can be beaten and there some not many but some people beating roulette and it wouldnt be easey, we have all herd people getting kick out or banned cause they earn to much, why because they were lucky, maybe if thats what you want to believe, but I dout it.
just because we chose to play it different and you cant comprehend how it can be beaten dosent mean it cant be beaten, just means your little brain cant comprehend whats possible. after all im sure at some stage they said the atom couldnt be cut in half.
Quote from: darrynf on March 10, 2011, 08:21:43 PM
im not aware that roulette players use junk science or junk math, maybe some do.
you say you use stats, well hate to say it but so do roulette players!
I dont know any system based on werewolfs or vampires or ufo's, which none of that has to do with roulette, the problem with math people is that they will never beat roulette cause their minds cant comprehend it cause in theory roulette cant be beaten by math and any system based on math wont work in my opinion.
most systems wont work on roulette and my one may fail at some stage but with the right money management it can be in your favour, most people wont know how to beat roulette and never will but it can be beaten by looking at patterns, maybe they dont exist, all I know is that it can be beaten and there some not many but some people beating roulette and it wouldnt be easey, we have all herd people getting kick out or banned cause they earn to much, why because they were lucky, maybe if thats what you want to believe, but I dout it.
just because we chose to play it different and you cant comprehend how it can be beaten dosent mean it cant be beaten, just means your little brain cant comprehend whats possible. after all im sure at some stage they said the atom couldnt be cut in half.
See these stories remind me of Vampires, Werewolves and UFO stories - they are all bunk but sound interesting.
In my 2.5 month of investigating Roulette 100% of the systems folks brag about are built with UFO technology - math and science that don't exist on Earth in 2011.
Test it yourself - find some braggart here or other websites and they will boast about UFO technology they control - nothing that is grounded in Earth science and math...
again you are full of shit maui
i never said anything about ufo's, im sick of your bullshit answers, why are you even here, to antaginise people ?
you arent here to help anyone just to voice your opinions and feel like you know everything but you are just a little man who knows nothing about roulette.
all you ever do is say the same over and over, just a different way of saying it, i think you have killed this forum, you dont have beliefes you are a dictator, you just want everyone to follow you and your trail of shit, its people like you that kill forums. I dout you even play at all cause it seems to me you are on here most of the time.
anyway im sick and tired of your babble, and im guessing alot of people are sick of your shit, im gona go to a different forum, cant stand your bull shit anymore, never wanted to debate you in the first place so shame on me for interacting with you!!!!
@Kelly >> Still waiting. Reply #48.
Ken
Quote from: darrynf on March 10, 2011, 09:45:13 PM
again you are full of shit maui
I never said anything about ufo's, im sick of your bullshit answers, why are you even here, to antaginise people ?
you arent here to help anyone just to voice your opinions and feel like you know everything but you are just a little man who knows nothing about roulette.
all you ever do is say the same over and over, just a different way of saying it, I think you have killed this forum, you dont have beliefes you are a dictator, you just want everyone to follow you and your trail of shit, its people like you that kill forums. I dout you even play at all cause it seems to me you are on here most of the time.
anyway im sick and tired of your babble, and im guessing alot of people are sick of your shit, im gona go to a different forum, cant stand your bull shit anymore, never wanted to debate you in the first place so shame on me for interacting with you!!!!
Wow, I am one powerful dude - I promise to wield this awesome power with reverence to all.
I'm just one guy, can you imagine other Black Jack players asking questions about all these voodoo topics here?
Good god.
In the world of Black Jack none of these crazy ideas are needed - just old fashioned statistics and skill at playing tens of thousands of hands.
My suggestion to folks here is to dump Junk Science and Math and get back to reality - if what you postulate isn't in books now then you are wasting your time and losing money on the craziest of ideas....
Quote from: Kelly on March 10, 2011, 01:18:04 AM
Im pretty sure I know where you are heading ken, you want me to say that advantage players needs past numbers to make their prediction. Yeah well, you just dont know what you are talking about, they need past spins but couldnt care less about the actual numbers. For instance a visual ballistic player who wants to find an average bounce lenght for the ball, he needs past spins but NOT the numbers. He will track that the ball dropped at X spot, could be zero and ended up at 10. Both numbers will be noted but just to get the value between 0 and 10 which is 18. 18 pockets is what goes into the tracking NOT zero or 10.
For someone who talks so much about advantage play you know very little about it, you even talk more about it than I do.
Here is an average bounce chart. You see that the ball can bounce just about all poicket lenghts, so there is no guarantee for a hit in a particular spin so an advantage only comes over a period of spins where you allow the peak to manifest.
The visual player knows roughly where the ball is gonna hit the rotor so he has in this case his bets placed around 20 - 22 pockets away from where the ball first strikes. No reference to past numbers at all.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg509.imageshack.us%2Fimg509%2F8905%2Fscatter17mmteflonjb3.jpg&hash=6f645d49fc341e44a7e71310a94f6ff67325766e)
This is my point Kelly >> If you cant name any methods based on past numbers, does that mean, ALL methods are gamblers fallacy? Every method?
Ken
I really don`t know which part you don`t understand. VB is NOT based on past numbers so its NOT a gamblers fallacy. A biased wheel where they accidently made zero pocket double size is based on the fact that tis pocket is double sized. Not past numbers.You can use the past numbers to CONFIRM the pocket size though.
Quote from: The Capt. on March 11, 2011, 01:38:39 AM
I dont like agreein with the mathboyz. Ken is kind of dumb bout this one though.
9 posts. I'll wait till around 300, just 'in case'.
Ken
@Kelly >> My point was, why not just call EVERY method (non AP) gamblers fallacy? Is EVERY method gamblers fallacy? If no, can you post a link or explain whose method is NOT gamblers fallacy?
Ken
My point is that yoiu only call methods that are based on past numbers for gamblers fallacy and yes you CAN test advantage play at home if you get a film of 100 spins with the same physical conditions that someone is going to play at the casino and take the time to learn the game so you can test it the way the AP will play it. You will get more or less the same end result give and take fluctations.
PS:
Play blindfolded or your kids birthdays numbers are 2 methods with another base than ap and past numbers.
Good day Mr. J.
It is obvious that you have no concept of visual balistics if you make a connotation between gambler's fallacy and visual ballistics.
Basically one would determine through calculation where the ball will drop on the wheel.
so in other words v.b is a method os system that is not based on gamblers fallacy, since it relies on the future spins then i would agree with kelly and zindrod.
so we have one way of playing.
Quote from: Mr J on March 11, 2011, 01:48:46 AM
@Kelly >> My point was, why not just call EVERY method (non AP) gamblers fallacy? Is EVERY method gamblers fallacy? If no, can you post a link or explain whose method is NOT gamblers fallacy?
Ken
Ken, it's obvious you have some kind of vendetta against AP, instead of bashing it why not try it?
Ok let's agree to redefine gambler's fallacy as all methods which use past spins (you'd better tell Wikipedia they've got it wrong). So AP is gambler's fallacy, now what? it just means that some methods which use past spins are better than others, so we're back to square one - which are the better methods?
And I've already told you in my previous post there are many methods which don't use past spins to choose the next bet. What's the point in discussing it? you've already made up your mind.
I think you're just bored or whatever. No-one can be dumb enough to confuse AP with GF.
Can they? :-\
The point is, gambler's fallacy isn't just about using past spins, it's about the REASON for using past spins. You are using them because you believe that in the short term the outcomes will balance out, and bet accordingly. If your choice of bet has nothing to do with this assumption, then you're not committing GF. Why is this so hard to understand? :-\
If I choose to bet 1 unit on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning, is this bet based on GF?
If black shows and my bet lost then I choose to bet 2 units on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning is this second bet based on GF?
In the second wager, is the bet on red based on GF or the doubled up stake based on GF?
you seem to make sence mike
what is AP? is that advantage play ? if so what dose that mean and how do you apply it ?
Quote from: darrynf on March 11, 2011, 04:42:44 AM
you seem to make sence mike
what is AP? is that advantage play ? if so what dose that mean and how do you apply it ?
Advantage play is any strategy applied to defeat the gaming device (roulette wheel), and not the game (roulette).
This can be achieved through the use of physics (visual ballistics), and scouting for wheel defects.
I prefer peyote myself, although peyote and a computer might be very affective.
:angel:
Quote from: bombus on March 11, 2011, 04:40:48 AM
If I choose to bet 1 unit on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning, is this bet based on GF?
No.
If black shows and my bet lost then I choose to bet 2 units on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning is this second bet based on GF?
No.
In the second wager, is the bet on red based on GF or the doubled up stake based on GF?
The fact that you bet on red doesn't imply GF if you chose it because it has a 50% chance of winning. But why did you increase the bet to 2 units? It doesn't necessarily imply GF because you might have another reason for increasing your stake, such as evidence that the wheel is biased towards red. If you increased the stake because you believe red is more likely to occur BECAUSE it has just lost, then that's GF.
One theory of why so many fall for GF is that they think a short sample of spins should have the same characteristics as a large sample, so knowing that "in the long run" there will be as many blacks as reds, then they assume that this should also be true in the very short term, but it isn't, hence the fallacy.
All experienced players know that "anything can happen in the short term", but also know that in the long run things will even out. In spite of this many still commit the GF, it's an amazingly stubborn belief, and the casinos love it.
Re post # 109:
A M E N !!!
N.D.
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on March 10, 2011, 02:59:54 PM
MIke here is the link to the Wizard`s forum
nolinks://wizardofvegas.com/forums/ (nolinks://wizardofvegas.com/forums/)
Thanks Nathan. :thumbsup:
I like this:
QuoteAll betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own.
;D
Quote from: bombus on March 11, 2011, 04:40:48 AM
If I choose to bet 1 unit on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning, is this bet based on GF?
If black shows and my bet lost then I choose to bet 2 units on red because it has a close to 50% chance of winning is this second bet based on GF?
In the second wager, is the bet on red based on GF or the doubled up stake based on GF?
Well that is interesting. Disregarding the zero, you are correct that on EC every spin it has a 50% chance of hitting. If you know this and don't base your bet on it then it isn't GF. Simply because you are not basing your bet on probability or past results. So if you just bet Red because you like red and use a progression, that is not GF. But it is also GF to some extend because you are progressing and betting that red will come yet you did not base your bet on past results you are still progressing and thus indirectly waiting for Red that is 'due'.
To Darren.
Dealer signature, visual ballistics and Bias are AP techniques. I would suggest you start buying literature in that regard and start reading. Also try and find any info on VB/bias techniques from all the various forums. There is a lot of info drifting around if you are willing to look for it.
@ Mike,
I increased the bet size for no other reason that on the next spin red has a close to 50% chance of winning and a doubled up stake will give me a 1 unit profit for the 2 bet sequence. Is this GF?
thanks bombus.
@zindrod
i understand v.b and bias wheels but have no need to learn it as im not close to a casino.
i only wanted to know what ap ment and now i know.
everyone has there beliefes and there is some very valid opinions in here, i for one dont care much about gamblers fallacy as its just a way to play roulette. i have my way and thats all that matters.
Quote from: Zindrod on March 11, 2011, 05:41:27 AM
But it is also GF to some extend because you are progressing and betting that red will come yet you did not base your bet on past results you are still progressing and thus indirectly waiting for Red that is 'due'.
Yes it was a tricky question, but you shouldn't assume that just because he was progressing then it implies GF. Like I said in an earlier post, it's about the REASON for betting a certain way. Sometimes your reasons may be valid, sometimes not. If it's not valid (ie; it doesn't correspond with reality) then it's a fallacy.
I can't think of a plausible reason why you should increase your bet on red which ISN'T GF, but you can't rule it out.
Basically to me the word 'due' means GF
Quote from: darrynf on March 11, 2011, 05:51:40 AM
thanks bombus.
@zindrod
I understand v.b and bias wheels but have no need to learn it as im not close to a casino.
I only wanted to know what ap ment and now I know.
everyone has there beliefes and there is some very valid opinions in here, I for one dont care much about gamblers fallacy as its just a way to play roulette. I have my way and thats all that matters.
ok.... ::)
Quote from: bombus on March 11, 2011, 05:47:47 AM
@ Mike,
I increased the bet size for no other reason that on the next spin red has a close to 50% chance of winning and a doubled up stake will give me a 1 unit profit for the 2 bet sequence. Is this GF?
Yes, if "has a close to 50% chance of winning" to you also implies that every other outcome should be red, the last bet wasn't red, therefore the next bet is likely to be red, therefore I will increase my stake to win back my losses.
That train of reasoning DOES entail GF.
Quote from: Mike on March 11, 2011, 05:53:26 AM
I can't think of a plausible reason why you should increase your bet on red which ISN'T GF...
Then it would seem unless you have some knowledge that your bet selection is superior to the reduced house payout for your selected bet, any progressive stake is pure gambler's fallacy?
Quote from: bombus on March 11, 2011, 08:40:41 AM
Then it would seem unless you have some knowledge that your bet selection is superior to the reduced house payout for your selected bet, any progressive stake is pure gambler's fallacy?
Would not say that.
If you had a pattern system with ABC rules not related to past outcomes. Let's say I decide to play RBBRRRBRRRBBRRRBBBBR and I'm going to play this pattern whenever I get to the casino doesn't matter what with a 1 up 1 down progression untill I reach say 10 chips on Red or Black I think you'd be cleared from GF. :) You see I did not rely on previous results to determine my next bet.
Still whether you can devise a system that's not GF it doesn't matter the house edge will get you anyway. It's not so much that GF will make you loose faster. Over time they all loose pretty much the same. That is why casinos really believe that roulette is a safe game for them. A banker if you like.
Quote from: Mike on March 11, 2011, 05:53:26 AM
Yes it was a tricky question, but you shouldn't assume that just because he was progressing then it implies GF. Like I said in an earlier post, it's about the REASON for betting a certain way. Sometimes your reasons may be valid, sometimes not. If it's not valid (ie; it doesn't correspond with reality) then it's a fallacy.
I can't think of a plausible reason why you should increase your bet on red which ISN'T GF, but you can't rule it out.
I use progressive betting all the time - however, I use the casino's money and view the amount over table minimums as the casino joining me and betting their money because they want it back.
Just a way of viewing the amount bet as a combination of reasons for that bet....
There is no such a thing as "THEIR" money. Savvy and experienced players as opposed to novices consider money which has crossed from one side of the table to the side of the player is no longer the " casino`s money".
It belongs to you the player. It might be considered excess of the bankroll but should never ever be considered the casino`s money. :ok:
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY Winnings.
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on March 11, 2011, 02:45:53 PM
There is no such a thing as "THEIR" money. Savvy and experienced players as opposed to novices consider money which has crossed from one side of the table to the side of the player is no longer the " casino`s money".
It belongs to you the player. It might be considered excess of the bankroll but should never ever be considered the casino`s money. :ok:
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY Winnings.
That's how I look at my BR - my money and their money. Granted when I cash out after 25% in winnings that money becomes mine but it can't be used for gambling anymore.
Until I cash out, I just view my original BR as mine and anything more, in the BR, than that the casino's until I leave for the night.
I NEVER use my money for anything else but the minimum bet - if I bet more, then it must be the casino's that I'm risking since I could never bet more than table mins with my money.
I've never found a way of determining whether one bet has a better chance than another bet - they are all equal to me. Since I must put up table mins to play the casino has to be my partner to bet any more - it's their money which temporary is in my BR.
That's how I view money management - you have yours...
Quote from: darrynf on March 11, 2011, 05:51:40 AM
thanks bombus.
@zindrod
I understand v.b and bias wheels but have no need to learn it as im not close to a casino.
I only wanted to know what ap ment and now I know.
everyone has there beliefes and there is some very valid opinions in here, I for one dont care much about gamblers fallacy as its just a way to play roulette. I have my way and thats all that matters.
Dont forget, the AP ways you posted are ALSO gamblers fallacy. Just another form of it.
Ken
Sooooo, can anyone name a 'type' of method that is NOT gamblers fallacy (or AP)?
Its kind of funny, definitions >>
A) AP (the broken dream)
B) Gamblers fallacy
C) Nothing else?
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 19, 2011, 02:42:26 PM
Sooooo, can anyone name a 'type' of method that is NOT gamblers fallacy (or AP)?
How about reacting to change? Change occurs when a win streak turns into something else. It's when streaks of red or black turn into perfectly choppy singles. At no time is an expectation that anything is due to happen used. This just happens. The trick is in seeing change happen. Fallacy is a kind of wishful thinking. It motivates a bet selection based on wishing. Playing the change is tactical. It's a deliberate reaction to similarities that are commonly occurring. It even has its own effectiveness and change component to it's own nature & methodology. In other words your effectiveness to target change has a quality to it based on observable effectiveness itself. Like layers of an onion. You peel back a layer and you have another one. Seeing deeply into reaction to change is an art form and an acquired skill. It has nothing to do with wishful thinking.
How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.
The ultimate fallacy of fallcies known around GG and here is Turbo`s " the FURTHEST BACK" !!! ROFLMAO>
N.D.
Waiting...............
Zinrod:My SSBmodel is also based on a 20 EC row.I have programmed the model with the Martingale betting and for a single zero roulette with EN PRISON.You can adapt the program to another betting scheme.After every hit you start with a new 20 EC row and you can play it continuous The chance for a 20 number row is 2^20 spins.
How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.
Ken for someone like you who DEMANDS answers from specific persons you dont seem to live by the same rules for yourself. Or is it just that you cant answer ?
I go for the last, i couldnt answer it either.
During the Cuban missile crisis US ambassador to the UN , Adlai Stevenson asked the Russian counterpart about missiles in Cuba . With no answer forth coming he said " well I can wait until hell freezes over.'
Maybe you too have to wait until hell freezes over. :diablo:
Quote from: Kelly on March 20, 2011, 01:26:29 PM
How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.
Ken for someone like you who DEMANDS answers from specific persons you dont seem to live by the same rules for yourself. Or is it just that you cant answer ?
I go for the last, I couldnt answer it either.
I ALWAYS, ALWAYS answer (the best that I can)......hang tight coolbreeze, I'm in the middle of something.
Ken
In my opinion that all irevellant. In any case, system players follow the rules and they do not base roulette play on finding methods ,week spots in game in general and faulty tilted wheels for advantage.
Gogo,
You got the right attitude. Like THE MAN says:" Never outsmart a wheel ." :ok:
N.D.'
Thanks N.D.
I did not want to insult anybody. I dont want to get involved in all these AP VS system play.
I personally like to play for fun, to test some systems and disscus them in some civil and polite way without name calling. And also main issue that is aceppted on all roulette wheels. If I win something followed rules I can be proud.
Players whom playes only to find some weak spot and exploit it for personal gain is like insults everybody else and is not in fair play mode!
Quote from: GogoCro on March 20, 2011, 06:27:16 PM
Thanks N.D.
I did not want to insult anybody. I dont want to get involved in all these AP VS system play.
I personally like to play for fun, to test some systems and disscus them in some civil and polite way without name calling. And also main issue that is aceppted on all roulette wheels. If I win something followed rules I can be proud.
Players whom playes only to find some weak spot and exploit it for personal gain is like insults everybody else and is not in fair play mode!
Whow - I'm a capitalist and I live to exploit weaknesses in systems.
It's what I do for a living, whether it's real estate, stocks, timeshares, cars, and gambling.
If I find a weakness, and I know there isn't one in Roulette I would exploit the hell out of it. I would be on a flight to Vegas tonight and live in the casinos - I'd sleep every other day when I'd take a bath and I would play until the casinos threw me out the door.
I take no prisoners when it comes to business or gambling....
Thats true, but you like others must folow the rules. In every branc of industry (casino, share trade, cars) have strict rules what is allowed and what is not. If somebody have fear of being cought doing knowingly something aginst rules - its dishonest and nobody can be proud of that, speaking for myself ofcourse). Would you be happy if in some casino use device what can gain them advantage? No, it goes both ways, they have to folow rules too.
You do what you want, weakness might be if some casino stuff leave vault open and unsecured - would you take the money? If you went too shop and leave without paying just bc somebody did not stop you.Where is honesty in that.
Quote from: MauiSunset link=topic=18192. msg131851#msg131851 date=1300658018
Whow - I'm a capitalist and I live to exploit weaknesses in systems.
It's what I do for a living, whether it's real estate, stocks, timeshares, cars, and gambling.
If I find a weakness, and I know there isn't one in Roulette I would exploit the hell out of it. I would be on a flight to Vegas tonight and live in the casinos - I'd sleep every other day when I'd take a bath and I would play until the casinos threw me out the door.
I take no prisoners when it comes to business or gambling. . . .
If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on March 20, 2011, 07:21:31 PM
If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?
Some people has born under lucky star - simple.
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on March 20, 2011, 07:21:31 PM
If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?
I've only spent 12 hrs looking into Ray and so far it's the same old "Random numbers have patterns"' mumbo jumbo that others spout.
As for a test, I only have 2 cases and they were someone else calling out the numbers and it might have been Ray's brother-in-law for all I know. I'm not saying Ray is unethical, it's that these 2 cases could be from a magic show for all I know - the magician always seems to bypass known science to make people float in air, etc.
You guys are way too eager to believe in junk that has no scientific backing. You eagerly accept rumors and "tests" that have NO validity to them at all.
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 20, 2011, 07:57:56 PM
I've only spent 12 hrs looking into Ray and so far it's the same old "Random numbers have patterns"' mumbo jumbo that others spout.
As for a test, I only have 2 cases and they were someone else calling out the numbers and it might have been Ray's brother-in-law for all I know. I'm not saying Ray is unethical, it's that these 2 cases could be from a magic show for all I know - the magician always seems to bypass know science to make people float in air, etc.
You guys are way too eager to believe in junk that has no scientific backing. You eagerly accept rumors and "tests" that have NO validity to them at all.
That's funny, do you really think Herb is his bro in law? Let's be realistic. Email Ray yourself and he will give you your own personal demo. His email is under his member name.
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on March 20, 2011, 08:11:15 PM
That's funny, do you really think Herb is his bro in law? Let's be realistic. Email Ray yourself and he will give you your own personal demo. His email is under his member name.
I don't know but when I go to Vegas we love to go watch Lance or David or the other David and they do the impossible every night; that's what magicians do for a living - fool us.
A live demo in front of us with a live TV Roulette wheel is proof positive of a real system....
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 20, 2011, 09:16:07 PM
I don't know but when I go to Vegas we love to go watch Lance or David or the other David and they do the impossible every night; that's what magicians do for a living - fool us.
A live demo in front of us with a live TV Roulette wheel is proof positive of a real system....
Email him for your live demo, I'm sure he would be happy to show u.
Quote from: Kelly on March 19, 2011, 04:24:24 PM
How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.
Busy Sunday here today Kelly, sorry. How do you NOT call AP (the broken dream) gamblers fallacy? Its STILL based on PAST results REGARDLESS of how or WHY you obtained those results. I think you would agree, you are ALSO using past results? Oops, let me guess........'THOSE' past results are something completely different. :girl_wacko:
Ken
its simple. nobody knows what the next spin is going to be. anybody who thinks different is suffering from a delusion. sometimes you guess right and more times you guess wrong. but its easy to believe you have a power nobody else has. i can go to the casino0 and say the next number will be two. i might be right but how many times will youi guess right. but will i convince anybody i doubt it.
The results advantage players track is not the numbers. If there is a dominant strike diamond, it will remain there for as long as the wheel is tilted or for as long as the track is dented in that area. If there are 8 diaonds and 1 strike diamond, the math expectation is 1/8 but the hit rate will be maybe 6/8 and will pretty soon exceed 3 , 4, 5 SD. The situation will remain for as long as the wheel is unfixed. The rest of the diamonds are not suddenly gonna wake up and start hitting out of nowhere. On a semi tilted wheel there are different conditions but lets keep it simple.
PS: Its pretty simple and i actually think you do understand the difference, but it has been your mantra for a long time and it wont look good on your CV if you suddenly changed your mind. Which would also be the first you changed your mind on anything.
Quote from: pins on March 20, 2011, 11:27:09 PM
its simple. nobody knows what the next spin is going to be. anybody who thinks different is suffering from a delusion. sometimes you guess right and more times you guess wrong. but its easy to believe you have a power nobody else has. I can go to the casino0 and say the next number will be two. I might be right but how many times will youi guess right. but will I convince anybody I doubt it.
This is never the issue. The *NEXT* spin? Nobody knows that nor have I EVER read one method claiming to know it.
The key is to know (hopefully know) a certain number will hit in the next 'X' number of spins. Regardless if its flat betting or a progression.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 21, 2011, 11:52:45 PM
This is never the issue. The *NEXT* spin? Nobody knows that nor have I EVER read one method claiming to know it.
The key is to know (hopefully know) a certain number will hit in the next 'X' number of spins. Regardless if its flat betting or a progression.
Ken
Which is it?
Statement #1 says that no human on this planet can tell what Roulette number will come out next.
Statement #2 seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can.
Both statements can't be correct.
Which statement is true?
P.S.
I guess if "x" is 1,000,000 then statement #2 is correct but how do you make a bet on that?
Who has ever said they 'know' what the next number will be? Not the next column/dozen BUT the exact number?
"seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can" >>> Careful with your wording, you remind me of someone else. 8)
I'm not saying 'THEY CAN' with a 100% certainty, I'm saying based on whatever method they are playing, that is their goal. Any method I have ever played, I have never RELIED on winning on that ONE NEXT spin (of course I'm not upset if it does hit), but rather my number(s) hitting within the next 'X' number of spins.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 12:29:19 AM
Who has ever said they 'know' what the next number will be? Not the next column/dozen BUT the exact number?
"seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can" >>> Careful with your wording, you remind me of someone else. 8)
I'm not saying 'THEY CAN' with a 100% certainty, I'm saying based on whatever method they are playing, that is their goal. Any method I have ever played, I have never RELIED on winning on that ONE NEXT spin (of course I'm not upset if it does hit), but rather my number(s) hitting within the next 'X' number of spins.
Ken
That means nothing.
I can bet that 13 will spin out in the next 37 spins and it may or it may not.
In those 37 spins some numbers will not show up, some will, and some will be duplicates - so what?
This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?
One can guess as to what comes out and luck will determine if your guess is correct or not - that's all that is at work here, nothing else....
We all know what side of the track you are on, its no mystery. So again the discussion starts all over.......methods/AP, blah blah blah.
When playing a method, the next 'X' number of spins, our betting is based ON SOMETHING. You dont have to like the REASON behind it or agree with it. Thats cool, keep doing 'whatever it is' you do, good luck.
Ken
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 22, 2011, 12:34:47 AM
That means nothing.
I can bet that 13 will spin out in the next 37 spins and it may or it may not.
In those 37 spins some numbers will not show up, some will, and some will be duplicates - so what?
This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?
One can guess as to what comes out and luck will determine if your guess is correct or not - that's all that is at work here, nothing else....
This is just more pure nonsense. This poor man. He thinks that randomness does things. He thinks he can explain randomness. I guess he is hoping that most people won't know. Gads, what a terrible stage to be stuck in.
"what a terrible stage to be stuck in" >>> MANY, MANY roulette players fit this description. They have failed in so many attempts, they simply give up, pity. My advice to all, give up after maybe 10 years, no sooner.
Ken
Gamblers fallacy means that you think some numbers is due because they are sleeping or hot or whatever. An Advantage player reads a number at a certain spot when the ball has 9 seconds left to run. At this point he knows how the rotor is positioned relatively to the ball when the ball drops. The ball can basicly still go anywhere on the rotor when it hits, but there are usually an average bounce lenght (see pic i posted earlyer). Any number could be due, but we want the number which is located at the reading spot 9 seconds before drop. Which could be any number.
If the strike diamonds starts to differ, the reading spot might not be valid anymore but you can the choose to break up. Because the flaw in the wheel you took advantage of, is not there anymore and the wheel becomes random again.
In Black Jack an advantage player has high chance for a black jack when the deck is rich in high cards, the dealer too. But the player gets paid 3:2 the dealer only 1:1 so to speak. The dealer has to hit all the stiffs like 12, 13, 14 where the player can choose to stand which is desireable if the deck is packed with 10`s.
Its all down to taking the flaws in the games.
Claiming it uses past spins is just the usual hair splitting debate. We all know what gamblers fallacy refers to when talking about past spins and its not the same.
Quote from: Gizmotron on March 22, 2011, 12:40:03 AM
This is just more pure nonsense. This poor man. He thinks that randomness does things. He thinks he can explain randomness. I guess he is hoping that most people won't know. Gads, what a terrible stage to be stuck in.
Gizmo, take your meds - you have it completely reversed - it's YOU that can read random numbers, not me. Does that ring a bell? I believe there is nothing in past random numbers and it's you who can read them - remember?
I've said it before - do-it-yourself psychiatry can lead to more problems...
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 12:46:11 AM
"what a terrible stage to be stuck in" >>> MANY, MANY roulette players fit this description. They have failed in so many attempts, they simply give up, pity. My advice to all, give up after maybe 10 years, no sooner.
Ken
Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day. Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.
Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 22, 2011, 02:00:27 AM
Gizmo, take your meds - you have it completely reversed - it's YOU that can read random numbers, not me. Does that ring a bell? I believe there is nothing in past random numbers and it's you who can read them - remember?
I've said it before - do-it-yourself psychiatry can lead to more problems...
What the heck are you trying to apologize for now? This is you: "This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?"
That's obviously your other personality I guess. You might want to check to see how many you secretly commune with. You know, that pot kettle black problem and all that. Anyway, you are still not making any sense. For what that is worth. Must be nice in your little worlds?
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 22, 2011, 02:04:04 AM
Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day. Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.
Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....
That's just more of your UFO friends talking again isn't it? Now you think that gasoline fuels a Roulette table. That's just nonsense.
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 12:38:35 AM
When playing a method, the next 'X' number of spins, our betting is based ON SOMETHING. You dont have to like the REASON behind it or agree with it. Thats cool, keep doing 'whatever it is' you do, good luck.
Ken
But the REASON is important if you want to say that some method is based on gambler's fallacy, otherwise you might as well say it's ALL gambler's fallacy (AP, systems, the guy who scatters chips blindly), so you end up saying nothing that means anything. GF is about believing that numbers will catch up in the short term - nothing to do with AP at all.
"Gamblers fallacy means that you think some numbers is due" >>> This brings up my second point I guess.
Sooo, the AP (the broken dream) crew say that ALL methods non-AP (the broken dream) is gamblers fallacy. Does that also mean......that EVERY method is based on something 'due'? I'll have to ask this on other boards.
Ken
Quote from: Mike on March 22, 2011, 04:00:24 AM
But the REASON is important if you want to say that some method is based on gambler's fallacy, otherwise you might as well say it's ALL gambler's fallacy (AP, systems, the guy who scatters chips blindly), so you end up saying nothing that means anything. GF is about believing that numbers will catch up in the short term - nothing to do with AP at all.
But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state its all gamblers fallacy.
Remember that, Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!! Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!
Ken
Quote from: MauiSunset on March 22, 2011, 02:04:04 AM
Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day. Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.
Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....
I know some like the dictionary when it suites them best.
The sticking points are these >>
A) Beat
B) Gamblers Fallacy
C) Short term
D) Long Term
E) Due
F) Doing well
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 01:47:58 PM
But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state ITS all gamblers fallacy.
Remember that Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!! Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!
Ken
I disagree Ken. I learned a long time ago that systems that depend on anything being assumed that it is due was a huge mistake. It always ends in disappointment. I count on confirmation. I evaluate everything after the last spin. Nothing is due. Confirmation puts it's own stamp of value on anything that continues. So I suffer fro confirmation fallacy I guess.
I agree with you, I was being sarcastic to the AP goofs. I'm saying.......that is THEIR view on the subject.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 02:02:04 PM
I agree with you, I was being sarcastic to the AP goofs. I'm saying.......that is THEIR view on the subject.
Ken
Oh, that was my first reaction, but then I didn't go with it did I? Very funny.
"I count on confirmation. I evaluate everything after the last spin. Nothing is due." >>> Even though I agree with you, here is where THEY might want to disagree.
You said, 'last spin'. That means, in the PAST. Sooo, they could jump on you and say you are basing your next bet(s) on the PAST results and that means its gamblers fallacy and you are betting on something DUE. Not my words, their words. They like to try and paint others into a corner, thats all. They feel they have every definition covered EXCEPT their own. :sarcastic: They ALSO use a FORM of gamblers fallacy but they HATE talking about it. :girl_wacko:
Ken
Jesus christ ken, go look it up what it means. If you think it applys to AP fine by me. We already know you don`t know what is happening around you. If that is how deep you can get into a gambling conversation, you seriously need to get a life. Actually i thought you deep down knew the difference but was just stubborn, i gotta change that to plain stupid.
Name calling, from you Kelly? :girl_wacko: Most already know that AP (the broken dream) is gamblers fallacy, not a big deal bro.
Dish it to me, its coming back. If I have to prove I 'do well', then guess what? You also must do the same. Same rule for all.
Ken
Ken, what they all do is they all think it's about a claim of prediction. I can't find many comments that don't always start with that premise. But some here are starting to get that. All the last spin does is confirm continuation. In other words there is no evidence that a change has begun. That's useful information in my hands.
It was not name calling merely a classification. Feel free to come to europe and play where i play if you wanna see how i do. My claim is that i win a lot less than Kaisan although i do win, when i find a wheel and i can prove that. I don`t know how you do, but the ways you claims to play won`t go in profits on the permanenzes i have testet. Apparently they only go in profit when you play. Whats new, everybody in here is winners. Do i believe it ? Not a chance. Do i wanna argue about it ? Not a chance.
Quote from: Mr J on March 22, 2011, 01:47:58 PM
But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state its all gamblers fallacy.
Remember that, Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!! Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!
Ken
It's not all GAMBLER'S fallacy, but all systems are based on SOME kind of fallacy, with that I agree.
You might call this hair splitting, no problem. :)
Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?
Roulette game like any other asspect in universum is linear so in one form based on past.
Anyway, rotor speed, ball speed, starting point, colaration on something, bouncing ball - those are only small part variables involved in determing outcome. No device or human can be assured or confirmed that have some advantage bc is impossible in such short time to analyse data. Tillted wheel ( esp casino level wheel perfectly) can not give advantage - its simple not enough.Momentum of ball is to high and can beat any small offset in wheel. Another fact is that time disallow to input data in utility or device - there is not enough data for prediction.
In other words, its wrong to asume that AP is not some sort of GF just bc think that tillted wheel and "knowing" rotor speed have any influance on outcome.
Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?
yes this is also GF simply because PROBABILITY can not gain a real advantage
But i agree with Gogocro that in modern casinos no good conditions exist
"Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?" >>> This is my point. The AP crew feel that EVERY type of method is gamblers fallacy.
You are also correct with your statement GogoCro......their way of playing ALSO is a form of gamblers fallacy! They just talk about it less.
Ken
"Do I believe it ? Not a chance" >>> Do I believe you Kelly? Not a chance in hell, you are full of it sir.
"It was not name calling merely a classification" >>> Thats fine but just so we understand each other......I dont want to hear from you the next time I call your pal Snowman a name. Because after all, its merely a classification.
Ken
I also have another question..do casino AP players consider as scammers because they use forbiden device or against rules?
Why we discuss of methods like AP what is not used on all roulette wheel, in every casino and relie on something imaginary?
If that method really works, on tillted wheel, then prediction must be every time correct. So proving that method work, accuracy must be around 90%, lower is still guessing and fluke.
AP players defend those method with comments; casino implmented counter-meassure.
But let me ask you, why would any casino take any chances, working or not, they will implement any measure they want, its simple not worth much trouble.
After ball hit a diamond, it can land anywhere...no device/method can predict where - its still a guess. Game have to many factors and varibles.Some small wear of track or small offset in calibration can not have influance on ball.Its too small to make any diffrence in outcome.
If AP player have real advantage, then sucess/profit is guarantied. If player find right condition and everything do like supose - then profit must be acomplished every time. (but I do not think so).
I have a method, to mentaly/hypnotise influence on dealer to spin ball on zero. Is that GF also?
"After ball hit a diamond, it can land anywhere" >>> 100% correct. The ball is going in one direction at one speed, the wheel is spinning in the OPPOSITE direct at a DIFFERENT speed.....the ball is hitting diamonds/frets and can land ANYWHERE!!!
Ken
Quote from: Psolaras on March 22, 2011, 07:41:10 PM
Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?
yes this is also GF simply because PROBABILITY can not gain a real advantage
That is not true. GF is not about geting advantage. Its about system which use past result to predict future outcame. Probability have nothing to do with GF. In anyway you mixing terms, probability can give real advantage, to whom...is another thing.
Nobody playing roulette according to rules and fair can gain advantage as grunted thing every time. Only casino operators/owner. System player does not claim that winnings is gruanted thing. If AP players do, they are mistaken.
AP players still watch past things to confirm future actions, so in other words GF.
Some system are based on logical predetermend positions, nothing to do with past results or gamblers fallacy.
Does probability have anything to do with gamblers fallacy?
Great thread question.
Ken
Crogo, in 500 trials you will see that it can go anywhere on the wheel but its by far not an equal distribution. See the chart in reply 41. Why we discuss AP ? Beats me, its j that keeps bringing it up because he think his friend herb is a pain in the ass.
If probability is used as excuse/method to use past numbers to predict future spins, the method is faulty.
Gocro if i use 8 spins and only 1 out of 8 diamonds is struck, Gamblers Fallacy would be to believe that the other 7 diamonds is gonna start catch up soon. I know that they won`t start doing that before the wheel is fixed. Its not an opinion, the ball WILL hit that diamond each time. If someone told me the high point was at 12 oclock diamond i wouldn`t even need a past spin, but i cant just place a level on the casino wheel before i play, so using a few spins to tell me is the best way.
"If probability is used as excuse/method to use past numbers to predict future spins, the method is faulty" >>> And this is what I have said 100 times before.
ANY ANY ANY ANY method that is not AP (the broken dream) will be dismissed by the AP crew because they think they are superior for some reason. :girl_wacko: They cant win so THEY bring others down with them, thats a FACT.
Ken
No its the definition of gamblers fallacy. Save your mantras.
Convenient as usual.
Your way = the correct way.
Everyone else = the wrong way.
Must be nice to be you. :thumbsup:
Ken
I dont quite see it that way, but i think you do. I think you should see a psychologist or something. Maybe you were abused by an advantage player as a kid.
The topic was gamblers fallacy, the real, but sub agenda, was GF versus AP. Like i said, if i was allowed to put a level on all wheels in the casino, i wouldn`t waste my time on watching past spins to see which diamonds are hit. So not even that can be used in your agenda.
"if I was allowed to put a level on all wheels in the casino" >>> Well if the casinos ever change that rule and let us walk in with a level, the BOTH of us would have it made. Until then, all you have are BS stories.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 02:04:35 AM
"if I was allowed to put a level on all wheels in the casino" >>> Well if the casinos ever change that rule and let us walk in with a level, the BOTH of us would have it made. Until then, all you have are BS stories.
Ken
The spirit level is a rudimentary tool for measuring the horizontal or vertical plane of any surface or object.
Spirit levels are often made to a much lower standard than professional roulette wheels, and so have inbuilt bias problems themselves; these can be out of level up to 3mm per metre.
Regardless, your quoted statement is completely juxtaposed to your beliefs. You believe there are no tilted wheels anymore, so why bother with a level?
But if tilted wheels are out there, and a level could help identify same (which with this post you admitted as a possibility) then what makes you think intelligent people can't come up with alternative tools to identify these tilted wheels without the use of a level?
There is always more than one way to skin a cat, and roulette is no exception.
Quote from: bombus on March 23, 2011, 02:28:16 AM
The spirit level is a rudimentary tool for measuring the horizontal or vertical plane of any surface or object.
Spirit levels are often made to a much lower standard than professional roulette wheels, and so have inbuilt bias problems themselves; these can be out of level up to 3mm per metre.
Regardless, your quoted statement is completely juxtaposed to your beliefs. You believe there are no tilted wheels anymore, so why bother with a level?
But if tilted wheels are out there, and a level could help identify same (which with this post you admitted as a possibility) then what makes you think intelligent people can't come up with alternative tools to identify these tilted wheels without the use of a level?
There is always more than one way to skin a cat, and roulette is no exception.
Exactly Bombus. Exactly.
A row of 10 ECs happens on average in 512 spins.I wager I cannot guess a repetition of the row.In spite of my expection the repetition falls.In my opinion this is GF.
Very rare it happens in my SSBmodel for ECs.
"You believe there are no tilted wheels anymore" >>> No kidding and it still stands. I was being facetious.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 07:53:14 AM
"You believe there are no tilted wheels anymore" >>> No kidding and it still stands. I was being facetious.
Ken
OMG. Are you serious? Ok. Let me ask you this. What is a tilted wheel? How would one determine whether a wheel is tilted or not?
Regards
Z
Quote from: Kelly on March 23, 2011, 01:08:25 AM
Crogo, in 500 trials you will see that it can go anywhere on the wheel but its by far not an equal distribution.
But AP players relie that ball will hit a diamond often then others due some low influances bias.In another hand, gaoal is to guess on wich number will ball land and no which diamond will hit. ED is still based on undetermined factors (spread area of pocets clearly shows that).
Its same thing to think that one diamond would be hit more then others due some ilusional bias what have not a power to have inpact on ball momentum, rotation, direction, spin - its to weak! - GF.
Even if wheel is tilted in some degree and track is ware-off - overall area of roulette is too small and ball is too fast to change anything - ball can bounce every time diffrently based on many many factors. One example on tilted wheel mean nothing. Ken is angry bc every single time some AP player distrupt system topic threads claiming bla,bla,bla - we do not care!! Its a hobby to us - not living. We do not care finding flows in roulette and exploit it...that is not game roulette about!
Quote from: Zindrod on March 23, 2011, 08:08:52 AM
OMG. Are you serious? Ok. Let me ask you this. What is a tilted wheel? How would one determine whether a wheel is tilted or not?
Regards
Z
Are we gonna argue the definition of 'tilted'? You are asking the WRONG cat. Ask The AP (the broken dream) crew. I have read (on this board) that a gifted AP guy can spot a tilted wheel in only 3 spins. :girl_wacko: :sarcastic:
Ken
A) One restaurant
B) With a partner
C) Around 80% of winnings, not 100%
D) You sound jealous
E) Good, you should be :sarcastic:
F) 10 posts....of course everyone has to be on HIGH ALERT until we really find out who it is, boring.
G) Methods, not systems
Ken
Yep.....someone who was banned (or left) before, no doubt about it. I can spot it a mile out. :spiteful:
Ken
Ok no problem, thanks. Have a great day.
Ken
Crogo, if you wanna argue about how VB works you need to read up on the most basic things like cause and effect etc. I deliberately picked a very clear scatter diagram, yet you say the area of the bounce is too wide. Take a wild guess on the Standard Deviation of the main 3 number peak, 6.95 Standard Deviation, you think THATS a fluke ?
Ken started this thread because he hates ap players, the only reason it comes up in just about every thread is because ken puts it there. I cant remember when I ever started a thread on advantage play, must be years ago.
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 02:00:19 PM
A) One restaurant
B) With a partner
C) Around 80% of winnings, not 100%
D) You sound jealous
E) Good, you should be :sarcastic:
F) 10 posts....of course everyone has to be on HIGH ALERT until we really find out who it is, boring.
G) Methods, not systems
Ken
I know who it is. He's been around the forums for years. And it's really him. Ken, you should know this one.
Kelly, my nick is Gogo (cro - croatia).
Well its my opinion nothing more. I do not accept privatly owned wheels wich is set-up on purpose to be tilted and off!
That test have no purpose. Its camuflage. In real casino nobody can be certant that AP works! I did not speak of you individually distrupting system threads. But is known fact that AP players tend to patrionase others with BS terms; thats GF. Its prudish comment especialy knowing thati AP is some sort of GF too.
Diamond, wheel and other hardware is not changed but speed of rotor and ball, direction, angle - that is changed every spin. So AP is relied on past setting but in fact every spin is slightly diffrent. So to think that will hit same diamond and bounce in same spread is sort of GF.
Bias present in casino roulette with calibration today is unfounded and even some sort of bias exist, its not enough to give advantage to any side. In privatly owned wheel you can set up wheel how you can but those results have no meaning.
I do not care about is this GF or not- roulette is a game not money making scheme.
Okey doke cro.
You are right captn, i dont gamble. But i will bet anything that i play more roulette than you do. And has probably by now seen more casinos in more different countrys than you will in your entire life.
Quote from: Kelly on March 23, 2011, 04:10:25 PM
Crogo, if you wanna argue about how VB works you need to read up on the most basic things like cause and effect etc. I deliberately picked a very clear scatter diagram, yet you say the area of the bounce is too wide. Take a wild guess on the Standard Deviation of the main 3 number peak, 6.95 Standard Deviation, you think THATS a fluke ?
Ken started this thread because he hates ap players, the only reason it comes up in just about every thread is because ken puts it there. I cant remember when I ever started a thread on advantage play, must be years ago.
Because I hate AP (the broken dream) players? Hmmm, this was my ORIGINAL question >>
If a roulette/casino gambling author was writing a book, would you agree >>> When he wrote about 'gamblers fallacy', we are reading HIS past experiences, HIS views on the subject, HIS definition, HIS opinions. True or not? (Yes I know, he could be doing some interviews etc. asking other players.) <<<
"I cant remember when I ever started a thread on advantage play" >>> Glad you mentioned that, I also brought that up with Snowjob many times. Could it be because you sit back and WAIT for method threads/posts just so you can attack others?
Ken
"I know who it is. He's been around the forums for years. And it's really him. Ken, you should know this one" >>> They have no shame. Once you are GONE, you should stay gone.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 06:53:23 PM
"I know who it is. He's been around the forums for years. And it's really him. Ken, you should know this one" >>> They have no shame. Once you are GONE, you should stay gone.
Ken
I might be wrong but I think the Capt was never here before. He genuinely just started posting here. I might be wrong though. He's been in other forums for years.
Well, either way, he is stirring the pot and enjoying himself. Kind of odd but whatever.
Ken
Ken you have been DEMANDING answers from aps for as long as I remember. If we are not quick enough, you are ........waiting. Im not sitting around waiting for something to attack, you come to me with some pretty ridicoulous questions that you want answered. Like the a gambling writers opinion on gamblers fallacy. His opinion on the subject could be anything depending on who writes, but the definition of GF has been set in stone a long time ago.
You dont have to be very intelligent to know the difference between opinion and deffinition. Its not even related to each other.
If Kriegman believes that anyone could walk out of a casino in profit if they just left when they were in profit, just shows that he never really tried or at least didnt do it very often because then he would know better Its merely a common asumption that does not hold water when tryed in reality or on paper.
Just tell me how you would do it and I will tell you which day you didnt succeed if you lived in Hamburg or Wiesbaden
PS: The captn is a copy cat. Hes not the one he wants to look like.
"If we are not quick enough, you are ........waiting" >>> WRONG, I give lots of time because to be FAIR, I understand people are busy with other things!
"just shows that he never really tried or at least didnt do it very often because then he would know better" >>> YOU DON'T KNOW THAT and you are making my point, the difference between fact and opinion.
Gamblers fallacy......thinking that a number(s) will eventually catch-up (its due), Kelly....I dont have a huge issue with that definition, honestly!!
My problem is that you LUMP TOGETHER EVERY METHOD and say its gamblers fallacy, thats my issue not to mention, AP is nothing more than gamblers fallacy itself.
Ken
We dont expect any numbers to be due because of which numbers came up earlyer. Thats the definition and it does not apply to ap-
Quote from: Kelly on March 23, 2011, 07:34:17 PM
PS: The captn is a copy cat. Hes not the one he wants to look like.
How do you know that?
Just a hunch,he is more captn than the original captn. Besides, he has never replyed or written anything to me before. How come now ?
"We dont expect any numbers to be due because of which numbers came up earlyer" >>> Ok Kelly no problem with that but does that cover *EVERY* method? THAT IS MY BIGGEST ISSUE!!!!!!!
BTW, I agree, thats not the Capt.
Ken
Quote from: Kelly on March 23, 2011, 07:47:13 PM
We dont expect any numbers to be due because of which numbers came up earlyer. Thats the definition and it does not apply to ap-
wrong, call it numbers, results, diamonds,pockets, area, bias wheel etc etc - same thing just a point of undersending and view!
Every spin is random event, only few factors are the same and others (speed, direction, angle, curve) make a spin truely random and separate event.
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 07:57:56 PM
BTW, I agree, thats not the Capt.
Ken
I just asked him to confirm it over at GG.
Gogo, you dont understand the deffinition of GF and not advantage play. Like i said earlyer, i dont really need past spins at all if i were allowed to examine the wheel before i play. Please.........
Ken its not my task to classify how you or others play, call it whatever you want. If the method fits the deffiniton its easy.
You can argue wether a progression on say red, regardless which colour came up last, is GF. Because the bets is raised in the expectance of a hit, but its still with basis in past losses and the expectance that the hits will eqal the past losses. So i would say it fits the defibition of GF.
I dont want to argue Kelly, honestly. This is my point (its not a question).....I think its unfair to put EVERY method into ONE category saying......we are betting on something because its 'due'.
Ken
So which method isn`t ? Just curious. I mentioned blindfold playing........
I'm gonna make something up, this is NOT a method so no laughing. Lets say, whatever number just hit, the next spin you bet on the two numbers on both sides. Flat betting or a progression, whatever. Single zero wheel.... the 7 hit so on the next spin, the player bets on the 29 and 28. Granted, its using ONE past spin but that does not mean the player thinks the 29/28 is DUE.
Ken
I guess if its just a decision maker, like if you had a bag with 37 number balls and picked one before each spin, that indicated your next bet it wouldnt come under the deffinition. (remember to put the used ball back and shake the bag)
Fair enough. The method would be based on a 'rule' but not based on something 'due'.
Ken
Kelly I uderstund what GF is. I think that AP is some sort of GF and I will try to explain;
AP relie one some bias/flow in system to determen future outcome. That theory have major flaw because is relie on bias like something certant but in reallity every spin is indipendad from another and bias can stop to exist or even change when you take ALL factors involved (dealer, speed, direction etc etc). So AP is to find flaw and exploit it and IMO in casino wheel they only think that some bias is that factor which gave them advantage when in reallity that is not a case.
Many methods does not look on past numbers to detrimine next bet and because that is not gamlers fallacy.
Sigh,,,,, read the deffinition of GF again. And if there are no faults in the wheel, there is no advantage play. I never said there were. You might wanna have a chat with forester, i think you and him are from the same part of the world. He might get faster through than i am.
Can the wheel or ball change direction in the middle of a spin ? No not where i play.
Can the wheel change speed in the middle of the spin ? Normally not but Cammegh has a few that does, of course we don`t play that type.
Can the dealer influence the 6 last ball revoloutions in the spin ? No, not much, he can have greasyer hands that might affect the ball over some spins, hence the dealers name is in the tracking.
The bias/fault in the wheel is what makes it possible, otherwise it is IMpossible.
If i know at a certain point that the ball will run for another 9 seconds and the wheel speed is 3.0 sec. pr. revoloution i know the wheel will take exactly 3 full revoloutions until the ball drops, so at this point i also know exacly which number the ball is going to hit when it hits the rotor. So my bets will be placed where the high peak is at the scatter diagram, relatively to the this number.
Im not gonna continue this topic before you read up on the very basics.
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 08:17:21 PM
I dont want to argue Kelly, honestly. This is my point (its not a question).....I think its unfair to put EVERY method into ONE category saying......we are betting on something because its 'due'.
Ken
:suicide:
I've said it many times, there are MANY methods which don't depend on something being due. Take a simple bet selection like "follow the last" - this doesn't normally commit GF because you're counting on there being more streaks in the game than chops (and if you were using "opposite to last" you are counting on there being more chops than streaks). Both of these bet selections are fallacies though, because there are as many chops as streaks in the game, so you don't get an advantage either way.
I said "normally" because you COULD use "follow the last" after looking at past outcomes and, noticing that there haven't been many streaks, then decide to play FTL because streaks are "due" - that WOULD be GF.
It's very simple; if you believe that some event is due and bet accordingly, then it's GF. Fallacies are about false beliefs, and these are many and varied; GF is only one of them.
Quote from: Mr J on March 23, 2011, 01:21:57 PM
Are we gonna argue the definition of 'tilted'? You are asking the WRONG cat. Ask The AP (the broken dream) crew. I have read (on this board) that a gifted AP guy can spot a tilted wheel in only 3 spins. :girl_wacko: :sarcastic:
Ken
I do not know about spotting it in 3 spins but I can definately spot it in 10 spins and confirm it in 20 (one way).
I'm curious though. What would you describe as a tilted wheel Ken?
regards
Z
Kelly you did make a fundamental mistake.If you know the velocity of the ball en the wheel it is impossible to compute the place where the ball meet the wheel.
Both velocities are not uniform and have different slowing downs. For these calculations you must have the knowledge of kinematics.I thought it my students many years.My knowledge of kinematic tells me the failing of VB or related methods. I follow the discussions about these methods but I do not argue.
"I've said it many times, there are MANY methods which don't depend on something being due" >>> There lies the issue! Most will say that ALL methods are based on gamblers fallacy and most will say that gamblers fallacy=due.
BTW, I happen to agree with you, there are MANY methods which dont depend on something being due *BUT* *BUT* *BUT* where are the SAME nay-sayers against me, why are they NOT challenging your statement? :girl_wacko:
Ken
Schoenpoetser, not really. Its actually much simpler than what you describe. One of the secrets is that I know which diamond the ball will hit, if I didn`t know that, it could be downright impossible. And by the way, the decelleration of the rotor is almost a constant. The decelleration of the ball in the last 6 rounds is also a "constant". It differs, I know but we are talking a difference of 1/2 second for the entire 6 rounds. Which means that I might not get the exact strike number correct each time, but it will be within a 3 number sector. The scatter is usually the part that waters out the edge much more than knowing where the ball drops.
Steve Forte (google him, he is in surveillance business) describes in his last book how wheel clocking is done. He made a small diagram that shows basicly which komponents the clocker mixes when he makes the prediction. In real life you are not standing with that picture in your hand, its merely an illustration.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg33.imageshack.us%2Fimg33%2F7576%2Fsteveforte1.jpg&hash=d1374fc331faab6650fac2620a1972473ee30830)
PPS: Other VB players might soon jump in and say why i only describe a 1 pin game (only 1 strike diamond) when all we face is 2 or 3 pin games in the casinos, to that i must say: Lets keep it SSIIMMPPLLEE. Describing a 2 pin game in here where not even a 1 pin game is understood would be a communicational suicide.
Great on paper.......Impractical for actual use.
Ken
Kelly, that means absolutly nothing, it simple enchourage disbelive.
I notice on rotor speed 2 pocket bounce is 14 (BTW how you can calculate that??) and rotor speed 3=6 pockets
so diffrence is 8 EITHER WAY (what wide area then you must cover with bets). Nearly constant is not existant in roulette and starting point of the ball is random (Depend on dealer) and speed of ball is imposible to acuratly meassure among with rotor not to mention hitting (right) diamond and what happens after bounce of it - its unpredictible too human mind..
AP is not applayable on roulette eg in real life conditions. Show us some evidence in real casino conditions as prove and not on purpose defected wheel what is pontless.
Empty statemants on me like I do not know what is GF or AP is pointless (who mention forester and what he has to do with all of that - empty words), discuss with facts and address issues allready stated.
And I am not claiming that varibles is changed during the spin!! I claim that is on every spin diffrently! So AP collarate same flaw in past WITH each time diffrently variables on begining of the spin! No method can meassure them all and correctly.
AP is also some kind fallcy because is based on disbelive.They actualy belive that some small scratch or slightly ware off wood have influance on result. Come on, give us a brake. Like comparation of car traveling 200 km/h hitting a fly!
If some flaw even exist it would be spoted in no time and wheel thrown in garbage like any other flow material.
edit:
I forgot, ball direction is changed during the spin after hitting a diamond.
Its not worth testing AP with certifyed or calibrated wheel - what is point then from AP?
If roulette game itself is designed in such way what give haouse edge, some rules or more diamods or similar measures are placed to assuer fairplay and random event.AP is breach to rules of fairplay.
"If some flaw even exist it would be spoted in no time" >>> You haven't heard? Only the AP guys would know about it but casino staff could careless, they dont keep track of such small issues like losing tens of thousands of dollars. :girl_wacko:
Ken
Quote from: Zindrod on March 24, 2011, 04:45:45 AM
I do not know about spotting it in 3 spins but I can definately spot it in 10 spins and confirm it in 20 (one way).
I'm curious though. What would you describe as a tilted wheel Ken?
regards
Z
Like you Ken, I'm waitng for an answer. :whistle:
How about this for direct.......I wouldn't know NOR would you. Let me see if I got this correct. The casino staff (I dont mean the idiot dealer) take no precautions of any sort? No counter measures against a SURE THING if there was a tilt/bias?
They are simply going to allow you to win a S**TLOAD and think nothing of it? I'll tell ya what, for alot of AP (the broken dream) guys here, I'm surprised no one has answered my AP question. ;D I answered you, are you gonna answer me Zindrod?
Ken
We can not disccuss methods what works only on purpose setted/tilted wheels. that serves no purpose. We can design roulette to have odds 1:5 on EC or printed layout with 25 red numbers..would method based on that odds work? Yes, but in wich casino,lol?
Gogo, no disrespect but you really havent got a clue. And you cant read the chart correct. Ken you dont use the chart. You measure the rotor speed and you then know which clocking key you use. The rest is already built into the visual clock key
And the dealer dont mean a thing, he can spin 8, 13, 28 ball revoloutions in a spin, i dont care. Im only interested in the last 6 revoloutions.
So i cant measure the ball speed. Alright, so lets asume i cant learn the beat of 1.0 second by heart, even though a drummer can. I will then buy a metronome watch, set it up with 60 BPM, and put it on my arm. I then look where the ball is when i feel a thump from the watch. We say its at 7 oclock in the wheel. Next thump, the ball has taken another revoloution and the thump comes when the ball is at 8 oclock. Next time the thump comes the ball is again at 8 oclock, which means that i have just identified a specific ball revoloution one that takes 1 second, and i now know that the ball will take another 5 revoloutions before it drops.
Wupti, i just measured the ball speed with no stress at all.
Ken i give up on you. Why do you think they changed the frets to low profile ? Why is the Starburst profile invented ? Why is the drop sector analysis in the wheel invented ? Why do you think they call early no more bets ? Would all that be nesscary if all wheels are oh so unpredictable.
By the way, a tilt does not interfere with the number stream from the wheel. Its not a kind of bias that influences the outcome numbers.
"Why do you think they changed the frets to low profile? Why is the Starburst profile invented? Why is the drop sector analysis in the wheel invented? Why do you think they call early no more bets?" >>> All the more correct for me. I am NOT saying that under PERFECT conditions, your bag of tricks does not work. My point is, the casinos continue to put up obstacles for 'the crew' and you guys continue to post stories of taking down casinos (joking).
One could argue the reason for putting max bets on roulette. Playing a Marty?
Ken
Kelly, that is only one factor and no enough.. Where is rotor speed, starting point, colleration to rotor eg numbers? Ball is not only one moving you know..rotor spins on opposite direction, ball after hitting a diamond is all over the wheel! So predict that with bpm metronom.
How can you know where ball is landing after hitting a diomond only with ball speed,while rotor spining in opposite direction. Diamonds are there to asure ball is bounced of, which simulate random event.Its bounced off every time diffrently and that hit force the ball in some unknown direction then after can catch some pocket, then change direction even get some momentum from rotor wich btw is still turning - need to say more? Case close. You can talk all you want about revolutions, speed bla bla bla..after hitting a diamond or something else, rotor border, no meassure can help you.
No more bets exist that nobody place a bet in last second so nobody can despute or fight it. And why would any casino allow that and bother with it? Casino does not care is some "method" really work or not. It does not cost a dime to introduce new rules or meassures - they defent bussiness. Does it work? Who care, its not worth a risk.
So NOW tilted wheel sudenly have no influance on outcome, hmmmm..what to say..
Enough of this.
Last post.
Rotor speed is measured in the first 3 - 4 seconds. Same way as measuring the ball, just a simpler, since it is simpler.
Starting point. Why would i need that, like i said, they can spin the ball 12 or 28 revoloutions it doesnt matter, so why would i need a starting point.
The average scatter can be seen in the first chart i posted in reply 41.
The bigger diamonds the better. The manufacturers now knows this so they have started to make them smaller and more round. A huge diamond ensures a fixed drop point towards the rotor on a tiltet wheel, a small diamond where the ball more or less just rolls over the diamond, is poison to the VB player.
No, tiltet wheels has no influence on the number stream, simple checking can confirm that. If the wheel has another bias down in the wheel, it might be helpfull though.
Ken the "stories" you mention can all be verified by the casinos i have mentioned. If you ask people who works with the casino surveillance business, they can confirm it too. You dont have to believe ME, ask someone else who is in the business.
Speaking of claims, on this board alone there must be 20 - 30 consistenrt winners using gamblers fallacy and what have we got. Can the casinos or surveillance confirm their stories ? No, because they are fiction.
End of last post.
Quote from: Mr J on March 24, 2011, 06:23:56 PM
How about this for direct.......I wouldn't know NOR would you. Let me see if I got this correct. The casino staff (I dont mean the idiot dealer) take no precautions of any sort? No counter measures against a SURE THING if there was a tilt/bias?
They are simply going to allow you to win a S**TLOAD and think nothing of it? I'll tell ya what, for alot of AP (the broken dream) guys here, I'm surprised no one has answered my AP question. ;D I answered you, are you gonna answer me Zindrod?
Ken
;D So you obviously think that tilt is only a wheel that is out of level right? And yes I would know. Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel. That is about it. 99,9% of players are like you Ken. So it really isn't necessary for casinos to go overboard with precautions. In some cases a wheel would have to be replaced to negate the tilt. In other words some wheels cannot be fixed.
What was your AP question? :)
regards
Z
G'day to all
Last week my Dublinbets test a/c was at 40k now 70k.
I use base start bets $100....
is this a "GF'.
I did it with
1...a fix mechanical bet selection..If win always bet the pattern will cont.
2...I study gaming Arithmetic
Basic of a mechanical bet selection
..........................Bet..............................................................................bet
...................................................................
B........................Wait.........................................P..................................wait
BB........................B...........................................PP...................................P
BP......................wait........................................PB...................................wait
BPB.......................P.........................................PBP..................................B
..l..
BBP......................B..........................................PPb..................................P
BPP......................P
BPBB....................B (dominance0
BPBP...................B ( chop)
BPPB..................P..........if .........BBPPB.........BBBPPB.........bet .............B......(steaky
BBBP..................B.........If .........PPBBBP......,,.....................Bet.............P......(steaky
BBPB.................B.......
iT IS JUST A GUIDE TO PLACE A BET FOR NEXT HAND
to be a winner u need to know the GAMING ARITHMETIC
WHAT IS "GAMING ARITHMETIC"
A player who knows GAMING ARITHMETIC will know his SYSTEMATIC TRENDS BETTING is in
A: Bad mode
B: Fair mode
C: Strong mode
It also trigger when to flat ,increase, stop, new session, reducing, and sequence over= profit..
SYSTEMATIC TRENDS BETTING will not have more winning hands but if trends is running in strong mode
it will win multiple hands in a roll.
So it needs GAMING ARITHMETIC to have knowledge on when to increase and when to reduce.
To win in a game u need to win more when u win.....lose less when u lose....
Most common Phrase from players..when bets are small win most of the time.
when increase loss most of the time....WHY wrong timing....
another Player ...AHHH I miss the 10h Banker or miss the 10 chops......why.....
Systematic trends Betting will not miss any of it but will not win much (...if flat betting)
Wishing all best of lucks.....WIN MORE WHEN WIN>>>>>>>LOSE LESS WHEN LOSE....
WIN1WIN2>>>>Bets without fear many WINWINWINS are here...
Dublinbets a/c will reach 100k soon.
Kelly, if you dont want to talk/debate with valid arguments - then dont. Its my opinion and I do not force you nor anybody to accept it. If anybody want to dispute/debate please free to contribute in discussion.
There is not need to bold line (last post) - little ridiculus.
You just have said what is a poison to VB (small diamonds eg diamonds). Industry included those meassures to assure fair-play and random event so nobody could predict outcome. If some method relie on false belive that some factor change outcome - its x fallacy. I agree that many systems here and on oher places are GF. I claim that AP is another sort of fallacy. I would like to talk about prove how AP is succesful on casino table. That is hole point here.What other bias exist on casino wheel (not privat) what has a power to influance outcome and be certant that is DUE that bias. Its imaginarny factor.
What is a point of knowing speed of ball and rotor without knowing position related to number pockets? Like only with speed data you know where in space that ball really is and where will land?
Supose that rotor (numbers) would be in fixed position and wheel without diamonds? It would be relativly easy to predict outcome. It does not matter are meassuress included in (hardware) design or rules - that unsure fairplay of the game.
AP players debate as success where ball will hit a diamond. what happens next is irellevant. And they celebrate how their method works just if they predict wich diamond is hitted more, like that is all about.
Even with fixed rotor and without obstacles (diamonds) would be difficult, I dare to say impossible to track those factors/varibles to human.
Ap players are players without a game to play anymore. Its not sutible in casino worldwide.
Kelly, you do not need to respond (remember your "last post") but you stil can and why not? I would like to hear your opinions and basys as well.
Wow Ken what a hot topic you created here lol.
James.
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on March 25, 2011, 01:36:22 PM
Wow Ken what a hot topic you created here lol.
James.
Not to sound like an a** but the BEST threads are the ones where posters dont agree with each other.
Other good threads? When posters dont want to ATTACH their name to a sensitive subject matter in fear they may be quoted sometime down the road. I actually like it when certain posters dont answer a question of mine, it says alot.
Ken
Quote from: Zindrod on March 25, 2011, 02:49:44 AM
;D So you obviously think that tilt is only a wheel that is out of level right? And yes I would know. Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel. That is about it. 99,9% of players are like you Ken. So it really isn't necessary for casinos to go overboard with precautions. In some cases a wheel would have to be replaced to negate the tilt. In other words some wheels cannot be fixed.
What was your AP question? :)
regards
Z
It depends on how you are asking the question. I thought you meant, if we both sat at a table and observed it for a few spins, would we know its tilted or not? "Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel" >>> Yes I know, all the more reasons making me look correct.
Good post >> nolinks://onlinegamblingexposed.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2251&p=5672#p5672 (nolinks://onlinegamblingexposed.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2251&p=5672#p5672)
Reply #4 >>> nolinks://vlsroulette.com/wheel-bias/question-t17234/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/wheel-bias/question-t17234/)
Since you ask so nicely gogo, I will give it a little shot again. Mostly because its a bit frustrating to see that you guys make wrong interpretations of things.
Tiltet wheel:
Does not change the the randomness in the outcome numbers, so if the casinos rarely or never has visits from VB players, they can basicly have all their wheels tiltet and their costoumers still have a fair random play. Hence some casinos are not worried if a few wheels has 2 - 3 main strike diamonds. Pierre Basieux once tryed to remove all diamonds on a test wheel at home and his VB play suddenly became more or less random because when the ball left the track, it went into a spiral over several revoloutions before it hit the rotor at a random spot. The tiltet wheel ensures that when the VB player predicts 4 revoloutions before the ball drops, the ball WILL drop after 4 revs. (because it hits the diamond, and not 4.2 or 4.5 or 4.8 revoloutions which would make the prediction invalid.
PS: Some casinos actually still use a level for measuring the tilt, the more correct way is to use a 3 legged level, or similar, nolinks://nolinks.tcsjohnhuxley.com/en/live-gaming/roulette-wheels/auuc-level.html (nolinks://nolinks.tcsjohnhuxley.com/en/live-gaming/roulette-wheels/auuc-level.html) which is put on the ball track where the ball runs. It will not find a worn track spot, but it will find a tilt. The track is getting a bit worn where the dealer releases the ball because of the friction when he sends the ball spinning. This wear and tear can also cause the ball to drop at this spot because there will be higher friction for the ball here. This might also cause a dominant drop zone even though the wheel is not tiltet.To counter that, they can rotate the wheel so the wear and tear is more evenly distributed in the track.
"I would like to talk about prove how AP is succesful on casino table"
I have posted a link to an interview of one the most famous (to the public) VB players. Kaisan. It is dismissed as rubbish, but I suggest you contact Mike Barnett who owns Survtech in australia. Barnett is not just anybody, he was called in as a consultant after The Ritz incident where he helped the casino and the Metropolitan police with interviewing staff and watching surveillance tapes. He knows Kaisan and his son, he knows Kowacs, Nico Tosa etc. etc. and a bunch of other 20 people who all are unwanted by the casino because they are too successfull using VB. You dont have to rely on what I write here, there are plenty of people in the real world that can verify what I write, is true. If the casinos suspect there are VB play taking place, they DO take counter measures, the first one is usually to call No More Bets after the ball has spun 2 - 3 ball revoloutions.
"What is a point of knowing speed of ball and rotor without knowing position related to number pockets?"
When the prediction is made, I obviously also knows the rotor/numbers relative position to the remaing running lenght of the ball.If the wheel was tiltet and the rotor was standing still, the ball would hit the same diamond every time and it would fall down on the same part of numbers every time, and you would get the same 3 - 7 outcome numbers all the time. In real life the rotor is moving but if you look at the chart from Steve Forte, every rotor speed has a different "pocket travelling lenght" in the last 10 seconds. Hence a different point of "visual clock key" but it ensures that you are almost just as certain on which part of the rotor the ball will hit, as if the rotor was standing still.
"Even with fixed rotor and without obstacles (diamonds) would be difficult, I dare to say impossible to track those factors/varibles to human."
You are probably right, asuming a tilt but without the obstacles, the ball would not hit the diamond and the part of the rotor it hits first would probably go from 3 - 7 numbers to 12 - 18 numbers. Much wider spread.
Ap players are players without a game to play anymore. Its not sutible in casino worldwide.
Not true, but im not gonna post in here where you can go and play, those things really ARE big secrets. Not to sound mysterious, but I know that some people would get very angry with me if started giving out that kind of info. Even amongst VB players, we are reluctant to give that info to each other. Imagine you were a slot player and were playing a faulty slot machine, would you name where it were located to another friend/slot player just to find him sitting there next time you entered the casino. Im regularly in contact with with Cristian Kaisan, but he doesn`t tell me where he plays before he is barred. Then i can have the info, because he is gone. As it turns out, we have been playing in the same area for at least a year but he and his son is now barred there.
Nice post Kelly, I like to talk with posters who explain their claims as you did. Maybe for me is difficult to express in english and to find proper words. But I would do my best to discuss all aspects what interes me.
In first part where you explained what tilt really mean I do not belive that tilt can have a strenth for such bias.
Tilt/flaw/friction/scratrch/whathever - if present, role of those flaws is not such significant to bias/advatntage likey AP claims. Ball have to small mass and fraction of degree or even larger values (in tilted wheel) is not enough. Any flow just add to random event but can not give advantage.
-A comparation;
Like bullet fired from a rifle on 5 meter distance. Gravity have not enough power to change bullet direction/speed on such short distance. -
Your "pocket travelling lenght" explains a lot but you still need exact point/orientier during spin with a fact that speed ball/rotor is not constant. (yes, you explained that too, but is not acepted; privat wheel)So in other word, margin of error is to high and advantage is ungrounded.
Its still relie on guess how much relovultions left till end on spin. Varibles wich are involved of bouncing ball from diamonds are every time diffrent.Ball can bounce on other side of rotor/pockets.Rotor can gave ball some opossite momentum. That is all variables what are unpredictible.
Nobody can "know/process" so many factors not to mention place the bets acordingly in such short time. Like I said, its impossible to humans.
Anyway, you explained some part what I did not undesrund so thanks for that.
EDIT;
I decided to leave this forum after I read BIG banner what Steve made with personal details of others.
That is sick. Steve, try to learn how to behave and what you write on internet!
SHAME ON YOU Steve. YOU HAVE NOT HONOR !
If you saw 15 blacks in a row, you certainly saw the very first black to show. Had you decided to "follow the last" decision after that first black, you would have won 14 spins in a row.
Now, how were you to know after that first black, you would get 14 more? You don't know, but you stop betting when a red shows. This costs you one chip to find out if a long streak is here.
Now, how do you know when a streaking tendency is happening ? You must make an educated guess as to what has happened in the past. In the flow if you will. Your guesses will cost you chips to find out if your guesses are indeed accurate. A correctly guessed trend can profit you tons while an incorrect guessed trend can only cost you a few.
My point being, is logical trend guessing and optimal game play management based on gambler's fallacy? (false belief) or is it based on just the opposite......a true belief, that trends happen all the time in a variety of ways? Ride from trend to trend for infinity ---- living in the present moment of the roulette wheel if you will.
I am just theorizing.............
In first part where you explained what tilt really mean I do not belive that tilt can have a strenth for such bias.
Tilt/flaw/friction/scratrch/whathever - if present, role of those flaws is not such significant to bias/advatntage likey AP claims. Ball have to small mass and fraction of degree or even larger values (in tilted wheel) is not enough. Any flow just add to random event but can not give advantage.
Im afraid you still don`t get it. That was why i really didn`t wanted top debate it anymore. You have some pretty bold statements on what causes what, but without having done any of it by yourself. Just one gambling chip under the wheel in one side is enough to cause a bias that strong. But i don`t think you quite got the importance of the tilt for the VB player.
Never mind, no one can say i didn`t try.
Yes Kelly, I do have my opinions and its really you who do not get it and who belives that ANY no matter how small flaw/tilt can give an advantage - that is bold statemant! You do not want to debate because you can not desputi it with facts. One chip under wheel - that condition is impossible to find in casino wheel. How to express myself, lower than that "one chip under tilt" can not significant change anything - so searching wheels what have condition "one chip under the wheel" in casino condisions looks little ridiculus /(Don Quijote fight).Lower strenth tilt/flow only add to random event - nothing more - to belive it does, really give advantage its sort of fallacy - despute that if you can.
I can agree that some HIGH tilt/flaw have influance (to what end depend on flaw/tilt) but it can not be found and would be spoted by casino operators.
Put it simple -
AP players who belive that any small sort of flawnes/tilt (what no operators can detect) can be exploited to their advantage is false belifs - in other words Fallacy.
And just to add; AP players do not play anything - they exploit and some other term is sutible for them. They lost perspective of GAME of the roulette itself.Such "play" has nothing to do with the game, odds, expetections, pleassure. Just to debate with real roulette players is arogant and insulting.
I can agree that some HIGH tilt/flaw have influance (to what end depend on flaw/tilt) but it can not be found and would be spoted by casino operators.
Like I said its a useless debate, if you don`t believe that some people has put some serious dents in some casinos bottom line using VB on TLTET wheels, and still does, ask the guy on this site. He assisted the Ritz casino and the Metropolitan police after Nico Tosa and his crew took a million off the Ritz. Using VB.
Maybe this will enlighten you a little bit on what the tilt does.
nolinks://nolinks.survtech.com.au/roulette.htm (nolinks://nolinks.survtech.com.au/roulette.htm)
The movie is partly a description of his computer but he also explains that it is how traditional wheel clocking is performed. Like it or not, thats how its done and your statements over tilts is merely an opinion based on your believes not on facts you researched in. I have. Steve has. Forester has. Thorpe has. Laurance Scott has. Pierre Basieux has. Mike Barnett has. Tosa has. Kaisan has. At least 100 people other than that has. We all come to the same conclusions, that somehow dont really match your beliefs.
Peace with that, but the debate part from my side over.
Its still relie on belifs! Many things can cause somebody to be in profit - luck, trend - in random event everithing is possible - some tilt/flow has nothing to do with it.. Its random thing.
Which factors confirm/prove advantage? Secret is not an argument. to draw a pararel in some cases system player can be in profit due some positive trends.
Billard table can be tilted in some level but have not significant influance on ball.
Anyway, AP is at least morraly questionable and " APplay" has nothing to do with roulette game anymore. That VB crew can used gun to steal money - that method also work but has nothing with game nor AP does.
Here is what Mike Barnett said about the Ritz incident. I have bolded 1 line
I examined all the evidence, including several mobile phones, held at Scotland Yard by the Specialist & Economic Crime Directorate.
I spoke with the arresting officers, members of the Club Squad.
I spoke with gaming staff that were present on the nights in question.
I spoke with the surveillance team who monitored and analyzed the action.
I watched surveillance video tape footage of the action.
I listened to recorded audio of the action.
I examined the running sheets of all bets made.
There was no evidence whatsoever of device use.
The Ritz Club is small and exclusive; any suggestion that players could get away with filming a roulette wheel are not only ludicrous, it is also an insult to the professionalism of the Ritz Club staff.
Claims that no charges were pursued because device use is not an illegal act are totally without foundation.
I am not claiming that device use IS an illegal act; I am stating that, in this case, it was not an issue.
There is strong evidence that conditions on the nights in question were conducive to prediction techniques.
The betting patterns, execution and timing of wagers was professional and in line with known prediction techniques.
Because we don't know what we don't know, casinos have great difficulty in adopting a pro-active approach to game protection.
We tend to react to a threat after we have had a good spanking at the hands of a competent advantage player.Casinos have games invented for them; someone else did the math to ensure that they have an edge against the public.
High-level advantage players are highly motivated and highly educated people; it isn't easy to come up with a way to legally gain an advantage against a game which has hard-coded rules to favour the house.Nevertheless, they have found, and are still finding ways to beat most casino games.
The bottom line is that these people know more about the games on offer than those who offer them.Let's face it; what chance do you have of detecting and neutralizing a player who knows more about the game than you do?
Kelly I'm afraid if people want to be stubborn even with clear evidence and descriptions from your side there is nothing you can do that will change their minds. One should actually just let it go. The more people with that kind of mindset the better for us.
During yesterdays protests in London the RITZ HOTEL was the prime target of vandalism. Did you happen to see the videos?
nolinks://nolinks.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1370053/TUC-anti-spending-cuts-protest-200-arrested-500k-march-cut.html (nolinks://nolinks.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1370053/TUC-anti-spending-cuts-protest-200-arrested-500k-march-cut.html)
Nathan Detroit
I can see that its very uphill here and I got things to do. So if you wanna take over, be my guest :)
PS: Hi Nathan, no i havent had a chance but i heard about it. Same crowd new demonstration. Same buildings gets hit. Some people are just in it for the action, not the cause.
Kelly..thank you for the link....very informative.
Quote from: Kelly on March 27, 2011, 11:18:11 AM
There is strong evidence that conditions on the nights in question were conducive to prediction techniques.
Where is claimed strong evidence? Mike Barnett can not be objective person to this matter because he sell device and software for VB.
Anyway, its not up to me which people choose to involve police and criminal charge. Decsion is on them.Its relie on morral education. There is many educated people in jails. Game exist to play not to exploit it - there is nothing respectful in it.
Bank also incoporate protective meassures against thiefs. Casino protect the game to be random to all players with specific rules and regulations and roulette hardware design. If someone have bad intentions and is not there to play - its something entarealy diffrent. I do not symphatetise thiefs and scammers.
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 11:56:36 AM
Where is claimed strong evidence? Mike Barnett can not be objective person to this matter because he sell device and software for VB.
Anyway, its not up to me which people choose to involve police and criminal charge. Decsion is on them.Its relie on morral education. There is many educated people in jails. Game exist to play not to exploit it - there is nothing respectful in it.
Bank also incoporate protective meassures against thiefs. Casino protect the game to be random to all players with specific rules and regulations and roulette hardware design. If someone have bad intentions and is not there to play - its something entarealy diffrent. I do not symphatetise thiefs and scammers.
You know it is pretty clear that you really have no interest in learning why AP works and what the mechanics are behind it. I don't know why Kelly tries so hard to educate you. Except for that when you refer to roulette and the fact that people look for an advantage and that it is according to you non ethical well you forget that casinos see roulette as a fool proof money machine (negative expectancy game - house edge) So in their minds YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO WIN. If the really did want to supply a fully random fair game then the payout would of been 37/1. As you hopefully know it's not. It's 35/1. So there is nothing noble about casinos and especially casinos and roulette. They are there to take your money and that is it. You are not suppose to win.
If you believe differently by all means that is your opinion. Continue going to the establishments and go and throw your money away...or like I say..go pay your free tax
One more thing. Every single person here whether they are climbing up the wrong tree and are trying to beat the game with systemsor money management or whatever their ways are, every single one here is trying to beat the game and therefore trying to gain an advantage. Therefore your moral values truly are a dilemma to you because you are indirectly saying we should all play a negative expectancy game and loose. Because that is morally right.
Zinrod you are mistaken. Any roulette players accepted rules of roulette - nobody force you to play. And to play with only one intention - exploit it with all means neccecary is wrong!
Many players play out of excitement, to test their luck, to be in pleasant company and play. Its life - NOT money making machine and it is not war.
Equal odss roulette exist, by the way.. House advantage exist not to beat players. It exist as paymant to service - nothing is free, so why roulette would be? 37/1 what a nonsense!! With that ecery single bet would be a win! Is it a joke?
Exploiters are NOT in casino to play and have a good time - thas beyond game of roulette.
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 12:55:37 PM
Zinrod you are mistaken. Any roulette players accepted rules of roulette - nobody force you to play. Ant to play with only one intention - exploit it with all means neccecary is wrong!
Many players play out of exicmant, to test thir luck, to be in pleasant company and play. Its life - NOT money making machine and it is not war.
There is no zero roulette or wuqall odds. House advantage exist not to beat players. It exist as paymant to service - nothing is free so why roulette would be?
Exploiters are NOT in casino to play and have a good time - thas beyond game of roulette.
;D Well this is a first for me. I have never had the pleasure chatting away to someone that believes you should go to the casino accept their rules (knowing you will loose) play randomly (because you are not allowed to try and beat the game, so randomly is the only way or should I say with luck?) Just absolutely crazy. Whether I agree with Ken or Gizmo or not (and I don't) They also believe they have an advantage. So every single person on this forum except for you are wrong...very interesting. I am sorry to say but you are very wrong. Casinos have absolutely no morals. They know the addictive nature of their games and they will encourage you to spend your last cent with a notice at the entrance saying that winners know when to stop. Why are there no windows or clocks in a casino? Why do they give free drinks away? Because they are morally correct and nice people. Bullshit and you know it.
It is war. If it's not war for you then you are the avarage mug punter that they love.
With 37/1 odds every single bet would be a win? Is it a joke? In what world are you living - then go exploit banks and steal money - they are immoral too with interest! Are you an idealist? Yes you are right in one thing - they exploit human nature to be gready - but that can be controlled and its a side-effect. But they offer service and players are wellcome - not exploters with disallowed methods!And I claim that no advantage can gain in todays casino with AP!
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 01:10:49 PM
With 37/1 odds every single bet would be a win? Is it a joke? In what world are you living - then go exploit banks and steal money - they are immoral too with interest! Are you an idealist? And I claim that no advantage can gain in todays casino with AP!
Kelly tried to educate you. God knows why. If you believe what you just said good for you and us. The more that believe that AP is not valid the better. ;D
You are one weird character. Good luck to you in your future (randomly lucky) endeavres. ;D
:) It's almost the same as with stock brokers. You reckon they should not use tools to make the best buys and sells. Because off course that is immoral. They should ignore the news and computer programs and models. They should just randomly choose their stocks with luck. Yeah that makes a helluva lot of sense ;D
Or wait. If an Engineer designs a bridge Lord behold if he uses software or tools to help him. I mean we do not want to have an advantage at all. He should just use a pencil and paper. Maybe the bridge won't collapse! ;D
Or hey what about not having auditors to look after your funds? I mean if the correct tools are used to save you taxes that surely is a crime as well. I mean we should not have an advantage there either! ;D
You are one funny guy mate. ;D
@ GogoCro, I don't know why you're getting so steamed up when you believe that AP is fiction anyway. To you, an AP is just as deluded as a system player but the system player somehow takes the moral high ground? get real.
When card-counting appeared it actually did the casinos a favor; thousands more flocked to the casinos in the hope of making a killing, but very few actually did. OVERALL, the casinos can't lose, and there will always be those who exploit the weaknesses, but who is being hurt by this?
Just talk - theaf defends theafs! I wonder why police was involved in AP matter?
Look in dictionary what cheater really means - until then - go and good luck until police catch you!
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 01:28:37 PM
Just talk - theaf defends theafs! I wonder why police was involved in AP matter?
Look in dictionary what cheater really means - until then - go and good luck until police catch you!
hahahahaha.
The Ritz situation the casino believed that a computer was used because they won so much money. No device was used as far as I know and therefore they were released with their winnings. There is no law against AP. Casinos have the right of admission and because they are greedy they really would enforce a ban on a successfull AP.
Gogo .. peace man. At least your priest will be proud of you, then again gambling is a sin. :whistle:
Quote from: Mike on March 27, 2011, 01:28:11 PM
@ GogoCro, I don't know why you're getting so steamed up when you believe that AP is fiction anyway. To you, an AP is just as deluded as a system player but the system player somehow takes the moral high ground? get real.
When card-counting appeared it actually did the casinos a favor; thousands more flocked to the casinos in the hope of making a killing, but very few actually did. OVERALL, the casinos can't lose, and there will always be those who exploit the weaknesses, but who is being hurt by this?
No, no, no. I claim that Ap does not exist in casino this days. Such big tilt/flaw would be spoted and corrected. I am not claim that AP does not work at all in special conditioned presetted wheel.
And yes - system player plays out of hobby - test and create systems for fun- they know that can not work in long term. AP endevur activity is soley to exploit and gain profit! That have nothing with a game itself anymore.ANd its against rules.
I would like to talk about methods/systems playable on ALL wheels.
Maybe my posts went too off topic.
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 01:34:19 PM
No, no, no. I claim that Ap does not exist in casino this days. Such big tilt/flaw would be spoted and corrected. I am not claim that AP does not work at all in special conditioned presetted wheel.
And yes - system player plays out of hobby - test and create systems for fun- they know that can not work in long term. AP endevur activity is soley to exploit and gain profit! ANd its against rules.
I would like to talk about methods/systems playable on ALL wheels.
LMFAO you are a piece of work.
Let's for argument sake say I have the HG. And I give it to you. Your moral values would therefore prohibit you from using it becdause according to you it is being dishonest right? >:D
Maybe you want to correct 37/1 odds (as being fair) before many posters see that non-sense - LMFAO
HG - its a non sense as well. I do not want to discuss with non-sense. Well I see that you have to have a last, and I did told that I will leave - thats all I have to say.
Quote from: GogoCro on March 27, 2011, 01:41:39 PM
Maybe you want to correct 37/1 odds before many posters see that non-sense - LMFAO
You have lost me. What are you trying to say. Please explain in morally correct ways please... :dance1:
@Zindrod >>> Reply #240 regarding that AP question.
BTW, you sure sound like another poster I happen to know.
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 27, 2011, 02:21:53 PM
@Zindrod >>> Reply #240 regarding that AP question.
BTW, you sure sound like another poster I happen to know.
Ken
(lol) No, its not a trick question. I am quoting the goofs....."find a scratch on the wheel, so you know its the same one".
I brought up a damn good point/question. How would the AP guy know, maybe the problem was fixed at 4am.
Ken
Is this the question you were referring too?
In short. If you have the necessary data and you have say 2 bias numbers 5 and 17 then you would not just walk in and start playing. Reason being exactly what you referred to. That is that the wheel might of been sorted out while you weren't there. So you would track a sample on the day and you will see whether it binds in with your previously collected data. If it does you will play.
Hope this helps. :)
@Zindrod >> No, this was the question.....
QUESTION >> I have read many times from the AP guys, if you have been recording MANY MANY numbers from a wheel (hoping for a bias) you should always find a little scratch on it, make note of it, just in case its replaced (at 4am) and you dont know about it.
Ok, kind of makes sense. Question being, can they 'fix' (not sure what word to use) the bias but NOT REPLACE anything visible? I assume yes so that means.......you would still see your scratch but never know the issue was taken care of, correct?
Ken
Quote from: Mr J on March 27, 2011, 11:10:58 PM
@Zindrod >> No, this was the question.....
QUESTION >> I have read many times from the AP guys, if you have been recording MANY MANY numbers from a wheel (hoping for a bias) you should always find a little scratch on it, make note of it, just in case its replaced (at 4am) and you dont know about it.
Ok, kind of makes sense. Question being, can they 'fix' (not sure what word to use) the bias but NOT REPLACE anything visible? I assume yes so that means.......you would still see your scratch but never know the issue was taken care of, correct?
Ken
Correct yes.
The thing is that looking for markings is an easy and convenient way to find whether a wheel has been moved or turned. Casinos will rather swop wheels than actually fix the problem. Most casinos won't touch repairs on a wheel but rather call out the manufacturer of the wheel to service or fix it.
So if you play bias, markings will help you find the wheel if it had been moved.
Same with tilt. If I get to a wheel that I have tracked for tilt I do not know if the wheel was turned or not (or moved). Markings and the position thereof will indicate if that was the case. If so I would check again if the wheel has the same DD or whether it has changed. Some wheels you can level as much as you like and and turn until you are blue, the DD will always be the same. Obviously the problem thus does not occur because the wheel isn't level. There are other reasons for that.
warm regards
Z
Quote from: Kelly on March 08, 2011, 01:14:22 AM
I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ? You are the strategy expert, you tell me which strategys are not based on past numbers. Close your eyes and spread 10 chips on the table could be one of them.
I am going to try this system at the casino. I will just close my eyes and spread 10 chips on the table.
How much will I win? Will I win every time?