What Does a Trend Look Like?

[bliss]

For starters, I think it's important to differentiate between "trends" as a social phenomenon (as Arte was referring to in his post) and trends in casino games. Trends in everyday life, such as what you should be wearing on the beach this summer, whether your hair is short or long, what are the latest buzzwords in youth culture, as well as trends in more specialized environments (such as the markets) all depend to some extent on the "snowball effect", and other psychological factors.  All these can be ruled out of roulette, baccarat, etc.

Intuitively, I would suggest this for a working definition of a trend (in the context of casino games):

"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

Where an "event" could be either "elemental", or "compound". An elemental (or "atomic") event is the smallest decision element found in the game. So in baccarat, an elemental event is a "B" or a "P" (ignoring the sequence of cards which actually generate the P or B). A compound event is anything made up of 2 or more atomic events. Thus BBP, PPBPPB, PP are all compound events.

There is a problem in that an "event" is subjective in the sense that it seems to be an arbitrary decision as to how you delimit the event in any given sequence, and because this definition of a trend must include events, it seems that the whole notion of a "trend" is arbitrary and subjective too. If you stick with atomic events (B or P) it's simple to find your trend. Using Gizmo's sequences:

Is this a trend? BBBBBBBBBB - yes, the trend is B

This? BBB P PPP P BBB P - no

This? BB PP BB PP BB PP - no

This? BB P BB P BB P BB P - yes, the trend is B

This? B P B P B P B P - no

This? BBBB PPPP BBBB - yes, the trend is B

This? BB P B PP B P BB - yes, the trend is B

In the case of compound events, this is where it gets tricky.

To be continued...

[Arteinvivo]

"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

This is how it works in the FX market. By simply using a moving average the guy knows when price is trending. This is so evident and has been known for so long i wonder why we have this discussion. Gizmo as usual has no solid arguments to provide because he likes make things more complex than they are.

Genius is making the complex simple.

[bliss]

Genius is making the complex simple.

Gizmo describes himself as an "eccentric genius", maybe genius is also making the simple complex? 

By simply using a moving average the guy knows when price is trending

Not trying to be pedantic here, but EXPECTED average implies you know what the true average is. For example, you can work out the expectation of 5 reds in 12 spins, but you can't do a similar thing for prices fluctuations in the market over a given time period because the "odds" are not fixed; or can you?

[Arteinvivo]

He is like a wiz kid who says there is a bug with your computer while it simply is not plugged  I say plug your dam computer and use it but again he will want to know what is electricity.

[gizmotron]

"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

Great answer. Bliss, you stepped up and explained your opinion perfectly. It's no surprise either. You will work to get an answer without taking any of it personally. This is interesting. Your definition of a trend, as it relates to Roulette or Baccarat, is exactly along the lines of what Spike and I have  agreed that it represents.

I love that you just took the simplest approach and just answered what you think. You get a 100% from me for what you just stated.

By understanding that there are terms for these combinations of recent past data, recognition becomes more of a construct for understanding this phenomenon. Thus, simplification of data tracking becomes a manageable process. Not to make fun of myself but I could say that it is doing a hemi. Only I wouldn't. I would say that there is a pattern, one that I have never seen before. The pattern tends to repeat itself as the opposite of itself in a symmetrical fashion. It also is part of a swarm of short termed extended trends. There is an absence of chop without formations that are recognizable. To see only trends or not trends is not enough information for me.

So I have taken the complex and made it simple for me. I did this exactly like a musician gets better at what he does. I learned to read music and I learned to discover what my muse is. I learned what I like in music and what naturally comes out of me as a guitar player. I learned to like my music tastes. I also learned what it is to be a professional pop star and how to get there. When I go after something I never stop at the edge to try to understand it. I throw myself into it expecting to fail a million times until I'm one of them that can do it.

So to answer my "eccentric genius," I go to the complex and then back to the simple.

Arte, once again, you are very funny, good job.

[Arteinvivo]

Great answer. Bliss, you stepped up and explained your opinion perfectly.

It's true Bliss gave a good answer as well as Victor but this is not new stuff. Almost all traders use some form of moving average to identify a trend. It's so wide spread that i did not think we had to explain such basic concept between us. I think you should look at other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts. Study what the majority of traders are doing, you'll learn a lot. I think you like to use very complex wordings to make the simple look more complex than it is in reality. But Bliss is right it makes you look as an "eccentric genius".

Not to make fun of myself but...

I think you succeed quite well in that area to.    So we can say you are an eccentric humoristic genius. Voilà.

[gizmotron]

I think you should look at other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts. Study what the majority of traders are doing, you'll learn a lot. I think you like to use very complex wordings to make the simple look more complex than it is in reality.

Lets see. I put up a few simple questions and only one guy comes forward to define one of the several questions. One guy asks me to go ahead and define them so that everyone will know what I mean. The point of all of this was to find out if too many assumptions have passed for understanding in the past year. Arte, only you can dodge the questions while giving advice that is nothing less than disruptive. The test is still running and so are you. It's not my job to corner you. You can or can't show us all your understanding of my questions. I didn't ask for more assumptions to create an atmosphere of generalizations and off topic interests of yours. If this is all you have then please be more direct, for the sake of this forum, please. Is it so difficult to answer a few questions that you assume are already well known general knowledge in nature? Was that too wordy? You tend to so easily lose sight of the topic. If I were you I'd look at "other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts." PKB

[Herb]

In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 

[Arteinvivo]

In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 

True Herb, at roulette there aren't any trends. But even in the FX market there aren't no trends, i mean you can't discern a trend before it is alive. There is this lagging effect we can't avoid with trends.

[gizmotron]

In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 

You know this because you are an expert at visual ballistics. You are also an argumentative person that already lectured me on your opinion. And that is all it is too, just an unproven opinion. You might want to look at the existence of expert systems and pattern recognition where a proven advantage has been successfully demonstrated and validated for authenticity among intelligent scientists and researchers. I would love to watch you lecture them as to the validity of your expertise on randomness. You see the world from your own perspective and you think others should just roll their eyes as you inform them of the realities of the world. Why did you come here, to this thread, only to start trouble? There is an open discussion of the nature of randomness as it can be described in terms of past spins or shoes. I politely listened to your explanations and theories. Did that go to your head that I was agreeing with you? I was not. It is one thing to apply physics to the problem of prediction and quite another thing tell others that randomness does not offer you any advantages. Says who? Go get a bunch of allies and proof, because you are all alone in your own little world on this one. I put out the effort to be courteous to you in the chat room. I think you are crazy starting trouble here. I will destroy you. I will provide you with the proof that you are wrong. So leave it alone. You have your VB world and I have left you alone in it. Do you honestly think that there is a single person on this board that does not see right through your motives here. There is no other reason then to start an argument. I guess that is becoming a reoccurring pattern or trend too. Herb, starting another fight, a trend?

[Arteinvivo]

There is no other reason then to start an argument

Herb, you are an intelligent guy who knows the difference between a real advantage and a pipe dream. Gizmotron's fun is to start an argument because he is probably a teenager in search of his identity. He just likes to say black if someone says white. Very typical of a teenager attitude.

[gizmotron]

Herb, you are an intelligent guy who knows the difference between a real advantage and a pipe dream. Gizmotron's fun is to start an argument because he is probably a teenager in search of his identity. He just likes to say black if someone says white. Very typical of a teenager attitude.

I have so enjoyed ridiculing Arte for the past year. He's like a Clyde Crashcup, a Ruby Goldberg kind of a pseudo scientist. What I like most is he keeps coming back like a punching bag or the Energizer Bunny.

The topic of this thread is about trends. Arte is pretending to be an expert of that now. I'm not sure why. It should rub off soon enough so that he can declare it as bunk. I sure would like to hear from him about the inner relationships between trends while he is in this connection with his darker side mode. I'm sure he could come up with a name for these inner relationships in order to keep it easy to discuss. How about all of you? Do you want to hear from Arte?

[Herb]

Gizmotron,

You posted the information and were asking for a response.  You opened it up for debate, so I offered up my opinion.  If you didn't want a response, then why did you post it on a message board in the first place?

Take the information for what you will.

Best of Luck, and Cheers.

-Herb

[Arteinvivo]

Do you want to hear from Arte?

Never heard of him. 

[Spike]

Bliss is correct in his understanding of what a trend is. Gizmo and I both slapped our foreheads in disgust at not thinking of a thread like this sooner. We now realize that most players consider a trend to be anything at all that repeats. So when they say 'trends' (apples), I see oranges. We're not discussing trends, we're trying to make apples into oranges. Very nonproductive.

[Spike]

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