Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[MauiSunset]

I have a friend who does better than maui.

He walks up to the table and throws down his rewards card with $1000 for chips.

The dealer puts his card in the machine then he just walks around the games room jiggling his chips for an hour or so, every now and then leans over a busy table and pretends to bet.

After an hour or so he collects his rewards card and cashes in his chips for $1000.

Goes and has lunch then returns to do the same thing over again.

This guy gets free drinks, free meal vouchers, vip rate accomodation, free parking, etc, and he almost never makes a single bet.

The guy's a champion!  

All Right!!  I finally found something that will improve my Roulette playing!

That's what I'm talking about!

Thank you so much.....

[sancusa]

Thanks for the link!
nolinks://nolinks.math.byu.edu/~jarvis/gambling/gambling-fallacies.html

[darrynf]

@ maui

i dont get you, you say you dont need a memory and then you say you need a memory, which one is it?

you can believe what you want, just because you think its not true dosent make it true, just because what i believe dosent mean its true either but either way i dont badger people like you do.

you dont need a memory in terms of whats happen before you got there, i guess if you were to record then yes i guess its a typ of memory, fact is roulette is roulette, its how we chose to play roulette.

roulette dose what it dose and cant be forcast, i never said it could be but i do go off the past results and i get hits, if you want to call it luck then thats what you believe not me. i never believe in luck.

anyway tired of your b.s maui, you never contrabute anything to anything apart from bad mouth all systems, waste of space.

[Mr J]

@Kelly >> What do you think of Herb/Snowman/Caleb/Keyser/Farnsworth3, TITLE of his thread at the Wiz site? >>> The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter.

Hmmm   

Ken

[Mike]

So my question remains for Kelly and any other AP (cough) fellas. Can you name any betting styles (methods) that are NOT related to past numbers (gamblers fallacy)? So far, we have ZERO. I'll give it a few more days before I really start to post. I'm trying to make a point that the AP (cough) fellas are getting closer to. Just say it, you know you want to.  

Ken

Why is AP not the gambler's fallacy? I've already explained it in other posts but a simple analogy might help. Suppose it hasn't rained for a few weeks and you say, "rain is due". That's an example of the gambler's fallacy because whether it rains tomorrow doesn't depend on whether it has rained or not in the last few weeks. The correct way to predict the weather is to look at atmospheric conditions and all the physics which actually cause the weather. Weather forecasters do look at past weather conditions in order to make their predictions, but this doesn't imply that the rain or lack of it in the past is a predictor of rain tomorrow. AP tries to predict the outcomes in roulette in the same way that weather forecasters try to predict the weather, that's why it isn't the gambler's fallacy.

I assume "related to past numbers" means in the current session. So if you don't need to look at the marquee in order to make your bet but are still using a system (or "method") then it doesn't involve the gambler's fallacy, right?

Based on that definition, there are plenty of systems which don't involve the gambler's fallacy (but are still fallacious). There is a whole class of systems which try to "capture" some events assuming that they're more rare or common than others. You don't need to look at the marquee or record outcomes in your current session to use these systems, so they don't commit the gambler's fallacy.

Even simple "bet selections" like "follow the last" aren't gambler's fallacy because you don't look at past outcomes, you just choose your bets in a certain way, over and over. These methods are fallacious because they assume things which aren't true, in this case believing that there are more streaks in the game than chops. Obviously, you would have had to have looked at past outcomes at some time in order to have come to this (erroneous) conclusion, but you're not concerned with past outcomes in the CURRENT session.

ken, all your misconceptions come from a lack of understanding of statistical independence.

[MauiSunset]

@ maui

I dont get you, you say you dont need a memory and then you say you need a memory, which one is it?

you can believe what you want, just because you think its not true dosent make it true, just because what I believe dosent mean its true either but either way I dont badger people like you do.

you dont need a memory in terms of whats happen before you got there, I guess if you were to record then yes I guess its a typ of memory, fact is roulette is roulette, its how we chose to play roulette.

roulette dose what it dose and cant be forcast, I never said it could be but I do go off the past results and I get hits, if you want to call it luck then thats what you believe not me. I never believe in luck.

anyway tired of your b.s maui, you never contrabute anything to anything apart from bad mouth all systems, waste of space.

You must be thinking of some other Maui Sunset if you think memory, in Roulette, exists.

I looked at many of the Roulette chatrooms and 90% of all of them deal with UFO topics - junk science and math.

I am just a reflection of the non UFO gambler - one that believes in math and science and that junk science and math must not play ANY part of a successful Roulette system.

I know that this is a real challenge to many UFO experts and feel threatened by someone just saying NO to Junk Science/Math.

Doesn't bother me in the slightest as you probably have figured out by now.....

P.S.

Junk science is all around us all the time.  Global Warming is 100% Junk Science, 10% ethanol in your gasoline is 100% junk science.  95% of the news on the major networks is based on Junk News.  There is always a motive for using Junk Science/Math/News - what those folks preach just doesn't work so they create an "authority" (Junk) to hang their stupid ideas on.

If you ever want to make money in Roulette you've got to dump Junk Science/Math - they don't work and any system that uses ANY part of them won't work.  If you see a system that seems to work and uses Junk Science/Math you are looking at a magician at work - slight of hand - a hoax to get your money....

[Zindrod]

I am new here.  So hi to all.

Been playing for about 20 years now.  Nice to be part of this community.  Darrenf, I must agree with the likes of Mike and MauiSunset.  The wheel does not have a memory.  Your system that you use you mention is about past results.  That's great if it wins for you.  Really speaking though you could of used a system grabbing numbers from the air.  You would have the same results.  Casinos do not worry about roulette because they know it's the 'sure win' thing for them.  If you watched national geographic clip about the ritz team, you will understand their view.  They do not believe in any way that the game can be beaten.  And they are almost 100% correct.

You use past results because you have to make sense out of randomness.  By fooling your own mind you think you have something.  Your mind needs to make sense of unsensible things.  The thing is that you are just fooling yourself.  Past results are just that.  They are history.  They do not have bearing on future events. 

Hope this makes sense to you my friend.


Z

[Nathan Detroit]

.................and the UNLISTED  stuff does  NOT work either.Take  your pick. Therefore let`s  rely on dumb luck because  roulette is  a  game of chance   but not a game of skill.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!.

[Zindrod]

? Hi Nathan.  It is definately a game of skill.   

[Nathan Detroit]

If it  is definetely  skill  then  it`s back to the drawing board    

N.D.
HAPPY WINNINGS either way with or without skill .

[Mike]

@Kelly >> What do you think of Herb/Snowman/Caleb/Keyser/Farnsworth3, TITLE of his thread at the Wiz site? >>> The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter.

Hmmm   

Ken

Can you give me a link to that forum on the Wiz's site?, I can't find it anywhere.
Thanks.

[gizmotron]

  I somewhat agree with some of what you just said. You said that I could use any system to grab numbers out of the air. That's very true. I have said something like that in the past on this forum. You don't have to use trends found in past spins to discover current conditions. Things like wins streaks, being a hot player, the table is really being good to you right now. People give meaning to things so that they can communicate with others and relate to them too.

So if I use a systematic syntax for identifying my own interpretation for the characteristics of randomness it's not the roulette wheel that has the memory. It's me that has the memory. If I get good at my method then all I have is a bet selection process that helps me identify win streaks. How is it that I'm fooling myself? I have no expectation other than discovering the current conditions. I think it's you that are fooling yourself. "Past results are just that.  They are history.  They do not have bearing on future events." The don't need to Zindrod. Who is suggesting that they do? If you look closer you will see that it is you that is implying this. Let's be real clear here. Using past spin results to see information that is historically current is not about making predictions. For me it's about finding things that are currently continuing. BTW, that data is 100% accurate. It's a representation of the exact current conditions.

I am new here.  So hi to all.

Been playing for about 20 years now.  Nice to be part of this community.  Darrenf, I must agree with the likes of Mike and MauiSunset.  The wheel does not have a memory.  Your system that you use you mention is about past results.  That's great if it wins for you.  Really speaking though you could of used a system grabbing numbers from the air.  You would have the same results.  Casinos do not worry about roulette because they know it's the 'sure win' thing for them.  If you watched national geographic clip about the ritz team, you will understand their view.  They do not believe in any way that the game can be beaten.  And they are almost 100% correct.

You use past results because you have to make sense out of randomness.  By fooling your own mind you think you have something.  Your mind needs to make sense of unsensible things.  The thing is that you are just fooling yourself.  Past results are just that.  They are history.  They do not have bearing on future events. 

Hope this makes sense to you my friend.


Z

[Nathan Detroit]

MIke   here is the link to the Wizard`s forum

nolinks://wizardofvegas.com/forums/

[darrynf]

couldnt of said it better gizmo, you surprise me at times.

i never said i could predict roulette and roulette it self has no memory, i do, pretty much what gizmo said.

thats how i chose to play when i get a chance to play.
anyway i still stand by with what i said, i think all 3 are true for roulette.

in away i think its the ones who think roulette is unbeatable that really dont understand roulette. of cause its beatable and not by forcasting but by whats still happening and if you dont understand that then you shouldnt be here.
anyway its just my viewe on it dosent mean im any less right or wrong to the next person.

[VKM]

System Testers Fallacy:  "The belief that, for a roulette system or method
to be successful, it has to win against any and every unique stream of
numbers. " 


Every Player experiences a unique stream of numbers in each session
that they play.  With the exception of very short sessions, it is unlikely that
a Player will ever experience a repeat of that stream of numbers in a future
session.

It's of little value to system testing, for a System Tester to use unrealistically
long streams of numbers that don't accurately represent the Player's session
lengths. 

A system or method of play does not have to win against every unique
stream of numbers to be successful.   It just has to win within the sessions
that it is being used.

What some System Testers don't realize is that what they end up testing is
NOT whether or not a system or method can be played successfully, but
instead, whether or not the conditions within that particular unique session
were favorable for the system or method to succeed.

Whether or not the conditions within a particular session are favorable for
the system or method to succeed, is the responsibility of the Player to
determine, not the System Tester.

The system or method that you use will win those times that you are able
to know and recognize favorable conditions within the unique stream of
numbers that make up your particular session.   And those times that you
are unable to recognize favorable conditions. . .  Don't Bet.


VKM

[VKM]

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