Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[MauiSunset]

Who has ever said they 'know' what the next number will be? Not the next column/dozen BUT the exact number?

  "seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can" >>> Careful with your wording, you remind me of someone else. 

I'm not saying 'THEY CAN' with a 100% certainty, I'm saying based on whatever method they are playing, that is their goal. Any method I have ever played, I have never RELIED on winning on that ONE NEXT spin (of course I'm not upset if it does hit), but rather my number(s) hitting within the next 'X' number of spins.

Ken

That means nothing.

I can bet that 13 will spin out in the next 37 spins and it may or it may not.

In those 37 spins some numbers will not show up, some will, and some will be duplicates - so what?

This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?

One can guess as to what comes out and luck will determine if your guess is correct or not - that's all that is at work here, nothing else....

[Mr J]

We all know what side of the track you are on, its no mystery. So again the discussion starts all over.......methods/AP, blah blah blah.

When playing a method, the next 'X' number of spins, our betting is based ON SOMETHING. You dont have to like the REASON behind it or agree with it. Thats cool, keep doing 'whatever it is' you do, good luck.

Ken

[gizmotron]

That means nothing.

I can bet that 13 will spin out in the next 37 spins and it may or it may not.

In those 37 spins some numbers will not show up, some will, and some will be duplicates - so what?

This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?

One can guess as to what comes out and luck will determine if your guess is correct or not - that's all that is at work here, nothing else....

This is just more pure nonsense.  This poor man. He thinks that randomness does things. He thinks he can explain randomness. I guess he is hoping that most people won't know. Gads, what a terrible stage to be stuck in.

[Mr J]

"what a terrible stage to be stuck in" >>> MANY, MANY roulette players fit this description. They have failed in so many attempts, they simply give up, pity. My advice to all, give up after maybe 10 years, no sooner.

Ken

[Kelly]

Gamblers fallacy means that you think some numbers is due because they are sleeping or hot or whatever. An  Advantage player reads a number at a certain spot when the ball has 9 seconds left to run.  At this point he knows how the rotor is positioned relatively to the ball when the ball drops.  The ball can basicly still go anywhere on the rotor when it hits, but there are usually an average bounce lenght (see pic i posted earlyer). Any number could be due, but we want the number which is located at the reading spot 9 seconds before drop. Which could be any number.

If the strike diamonds starts to differ, the reading spot might not be valid anymore but you can the choose to break up. Because the flaw in the wheel you took advantage of, is not there anymore and the wheel becomes random again.

In Black Jack an advantage player has high chance for a black jack when the deck is rich in high cards, the dealer too. But the player gets paid 3:2 the dealer only 1:1 so to speak. The dealer has to hit all the stiffs like 12, 13, 14 where the player can choose to stand which is desireable if the deck is packed with 10`s.

Its all down to taking the flaws in the games. 

Claiming it uses past spins is just the usual hair splitting debate. We all know what gamblers fallacy refers to when talking about past spins and its not the same.

[MauiSunset]

This is just more pure nonsense.  This poor man. He thinks that randomness does things. He thinks he can explain randomness. I guess he is hoping that most people won't know. Gads, what a terrible stage to be stuck in.

Gizmo, take your meds - you have it completely reversed - it's YOU that can read random numbers, not me.  Does that ring a bell?  I believe there is nothing in past random numbers and it's you who can read them - remember?

I've said it before - do-it-yourself psychiatry can lead to more problems...

[MauiSunset]

"what a terrible stage to be stuck in" >>> MANY, MANY roulette players fit this description. They have failed in so many attempts, they simply give up, pity. My advice to all, give up after maybe 10 years, no sooner.

Ken

Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day.  Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.

Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....

[gizmotron]

Gizmo, take your meds - you have it completely reversed - it's YOU that can read random numbers, not me.  Does that ring a bell?  I believe there is nothing in past random numbers and it's you who can read them - remember?

I've said it before - do-it-yourself psychiatry can lead to more problems...

What the heck are you trying to apologize for now? This is you: "This is exactly how random number behave - they are not uniform and form "clumps" and "voids" - so what?"

That's obviously your other personality I guess. You might want to check to see how many you secretly commune with. You know, that pot kettle black problem and all that. Anyway, you are still not making any sense. For what that is worth. Must be nice in your little worlds?

[gizmotron]

Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day.  Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.

Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....

That's just more of your UFO friends talking again isn't it? Now you think that gasoline fuels a Roulette table. That's just nonsense.

[Mike]

When playing a method, the next 'X' number of spins, our betting is based ON SOMETHING. You dont have to like the REASON behind it or agree with it. Thats cool, keep doing 'whatever it is' you do, good luck.

Ken

But the REASON is important if you want to say that some method is based on gambler's fallacy, otherwise you might as well say it's ALL gambler's fallacy (AP, systems, the guy who scatters chips blindly), so you end up saying nothing that means anything. GF is about believing that numbers will catch up in the short term - nothing to do with AP at all.

[Mr J]

"Gamblers fallacy means that you think some numbers is due" >>> This brings up my second point I guess.

Sooo, the AP (the broken dream) crew say that ALL methods non-AP (the broken dream) is gamblers fallacy. Does that also mean......that EVERY method is based on something 'due'?  I'll have to ask this on other boards.


Ken

[Mr J]

But the REASON is important if you want to say that some method is based on gambler's fallacy, otherwise you might as well say it's ALL gambler's fallacy (AP, systems, the guy who scatters chips blindly), so you end up saying nothing that means anything. GF is about believing that numbers will catch up in the short term - nothing to do with AP at all.

But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state its all gamblers fallacy.

Remember that, Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!!  Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!


Ken

[Mr J]

Folks have been trying to beat Roulette for 300 years and the game has not changed one bit and the casinos have lots of the tables/machines making money for them every day.  Gambler's Fallacy fuels the Roulette tables.

Advising someone to lose for 10 years hardly seems to be helpful advice - at lest to me....

I know some like the dictionary when it suites them best.

The sticking points are these >>

A) Beat

B) Gamblers Fallacy

C) Short term

D) Long Term

E) Due

F) Doing well

Ken

[gizmotron]

But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state ITS all gamblers fallacy.

Remember that Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!!  Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!


Ken

I disagree Ken. I learned a long time ago that systems that depend on anything being assumed that it is due was a huge mistake. It always ends in disappointment. I count on confirmation. I evaluate everything after the last spin. Nothing is due. Confirmation puts it's own stamp of value on anything that continues. So I suffer fro confirmation fallacy I guess.

[Mr J]

I agree with you, I was being sarcastic to the AP goofs. I'm saying.......that is THEIR view on the subject.

Ken

[Mr J]

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