Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[gizmotron]

I agree with you, I was being sarcastic to the AP goofs. I'm saying.......that is THEIR view on the subject.

Ken

Oh, that was my first reaction, but then I didn't go with it did I? Very funny.

[Mr J]

"I count on confirmation. I evaluate everything after the last spin. Nothing is due." >>> Even though I agree with you, here is where THEY might want to disagree.

You said, 'last spin'. That means, in the PAST. Sooo, they could jump on you and say you are basing your next bet(s) on the PAST results and that means its gamblers fallacy and you are betting on something DUE. Not my words, their words. They like to try and paint others into a corner, thats all. They feel they have every definition covered EXCEPT their own.  They ALSO use a FORM of gamblers fallacy but they HATE talking about it. 


Ken

[Kelly]

Jesus christ ken, go look it up what it means.  If you think it applys to AP fine by me.  We already know you don`t know what is happening around you.   If  that is how deep you can get into a gambling conversation, you seriously need to get a life.  Actually i thought you deep down knew the difference but was just stubborn,  i gotta change that to plain stupid.

[Mr J]

Name calling, from you Kelly?  Most already know that AP (the broken dream) is gamblers fallacy, not a big deal bro.

Dish it to me, its coming back. If I have to prove I 'do well', then guess what? You also must do the same. Same rule for all.


Ken

[gizmotron]

Ken, what they all do is they all think it's about a claim of prediction. I can't find many comments that don't always start with that premise. But some here are starting to get that. All the last spin does is confirm continuation. In other words there is no evidence that a change has begun. That's useful information in my hands.

[Kelly]

It was not name calling merely a classification.  Feel free to come to europe and play where i play if you wanna see how i do.  My claim is that i win a lot less than Kaisan although i do win, when i find a wheel and i can prove that.  I don`t know how you do, but the ways you claims to play won`t go in profits on the permanenzes i have testet.  Apparently  they only go in profit when you play.  Whats new, everybody in here is winners. Do i believe it ? Not a chance.  Do i wanna argue about it ? Not a chance.

[Mike]

But I'm NOT saying its all gamblers fallacy.....its the AP (the broken dream) crew that state its all gamblers fallacy.

Remember that, Nate, Victor, Spike, Gizmo, Talesman etc. etc. etc........EVERY non-AP method you play, is BASED on something DUE!!  Using AP (the broken dream) is 100% GAMBLERS FALLACY !!!

Ken

It's not all GAMBLER'S fallacy, but all systems are based on SOME kind of fallacy, with that I agree.

You might call this hair splitting, no problem. 

[GogoCro]

Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?
Roulette game like any other asspect in universum is linear so in one form based on past.

Anyway, rotor speed, ball speed, starting point, colaration on something, bouncing ball - those are only small part variables involved in determing outcome. No device or human can be assured or confirmed that have some advantage bc is impossible in such short time to analyse data. Tillted wheel ( esp casino level wheel perfectly) can not give advantage - its simple not enough.Momentum of ball is to high and can beat any small offset in wheel. Another fact is that time disallow to input data in utility or device - there is not enough data for prediction.

In other words, its wrong to asume that AP is not some sort of GF just bc think that tillted wheel and "knowing" rotor speed have any influance on outcome.

[Psolaras]

Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?

yes this is also GF simply because PROBABILITY can not gain a real advantage

But i agree with Gogocro that in modern casinos no good conditions exist

[Mr J]

"Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?" >>> This is my point. The AP crew feel that EVERY type of method is gamblers fallacy.

You are also correct with your statement GogoCro......their way of playing ALSO is a form of gamblers fallacy! They just talk about it less.

Ken

[Mr J]

"Do I believe it ? Not a chance" >>> Do I believe you Kelly? Not a chance in hell, you are full of it sir.


"It was not name calling merely a classification" >>> Thats fine but just so we understand each other......I dont want to hear from you the next time I call your pal Snowman a name. Because after all, its merely a classification.

Ken

[GogoCro]

I also have another question..do casino AP players consider as scammers because they use forbiden device or against rules?
Why we discuss of methods like AP what is not used on all roulette wheel, in every casino and relie on something imaginary?
If that method really works, on tillted wheel, then prediction must be every time correct. So proving that method work, accuracy must be around 90%, lower is still guessing and fluke.
AP players defend those method with comments;  casino implmented counter-meassure.
But let me ask you, why would any casino take any chances, working or not, they will implement any measure they want, its simple not worth much trouble.
After ball hit a diamond, it can land anywhere...no device/method can predict where - its still a guess. Game have to many factors and varibles.Some small wear of track or small offset in calibration can not have influance on ball.Its too small to make any diffrence in outcome.
If AP player have real advantage, then sucess/profit is guarantied. If player find right condition and everything do like supose - then profit must be acomplished every time. (but I do not think so).

I have a method, to mentaly/hypnotise influence on dealer to spin ball on zero. Is that GF also?

[Mr J]

"After ball hit a diamond, it can land anywhere" >>> 100% correct. The ball is going in one direction at one speed, the wheel is spinning in the OPPOSITE direct at a DIFFERENT speed.....the ball is hitting diamonds/frets and can land ANYWHERE!!!


Ken

[GogoCro]

Some system are based on probability. Is that also GF?

yes this is also GF simply because PROBABILITY can not gain a real advantage

That is not true. GF is not about geting advantage. Its about system which use past result to predict future outcame. Probability have nothing to do with GF. In anyway you mixing terms, probability can give real advantage, to whom...is another thing.
Nobody playing roulette according to rules and fair can gain advantage as grunted thing every time. Only casino operators/owner. System player does not claim that winnings is gruanted thing. If AP players do, they are mistaken.

AP players still watch past things to confirm future actions, so in other words GF.
Some system are based on logical predetermend positions, nothing to do with past results or gamblers fallacy.

[Mr J]

Does probability have anything to do with gamblers fallacy?

Great thread question.

Ken

[Mr J]

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