Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[Mr J]

Great on paper.......Impractical for actual use.

Ken

[GogoCro]

Kelly, that means absolutly nothing, it simple enchourage disbelive.
I notice on rotor speed 2 pocket bounce is 14 (BTW how you can calculate that??) and rotor speed 3=6  pockets
so diffrence is 8 EITHER WAY (what wide area then you must cover with bets). Nearly constant is not existant in roulette and starting point of the ball is random (Depend on dealer) and speed of ball is imposible to acuratly meassure among with rotor not to mention hitting (right) diamond and what happens after bounce of it - its unpredictible too human mind..
AP is not applayable on roulette eg in real life conditions. Show us some evidence in real casino conditions as prove and not on purpose defected wheel what is pontless.
Empty statemants on me like I do not know what is GF or AP is pointless (who mention forester and what he has to do with all of that - empty words), discuss with facts and address issues allready stated.
And I am not claiming that varibles is changed during the spin!! I claim that is on every spin diffrently! So AP collarate same flaw in past WITH each time diffrently variables on begining of the spin! No method can meassure them all and correctly.

AP is also some kind fallcy because is based on disbelive.They actualy belive that some small scratch or slightly ware off wood have influance on result. Come on, give us a brake. Like comparation of car traveling 200 km/h hitting a fly!
If some flaw even exist it would be spoted in no time and wheel thrown in garbage like any other flow material.

edit:
I forgot, ball direction is changed during the spin after hitting a diamond.
Its not worth testing AP with certifyed or calibrated wheel - what is point then from AP?
If roulette game itself is designed in such way what give haouse edge, some rules or more diamods or similar measures are placed to assuer fairplay and random event.AP is breach to rules of fairplay.

[Mr J]

"If some flaw even exist it would be spoted in no time" >>> You haven't heard? Only the AP guys would know about it but casino staff could careless, they dont keep track of such small issues like losing tens of thousands of dollars. 

Ken

[Zindrod]

I do not know about spotting it in 3 spins but I can definately spot it in 10 spins and confirm it in 20 (one way).

I'm curious though. What would you describe as a tilted wheel Ken?


regards
Z

Like you Ken, I'm waitng for an answer. 

[Mr J]

How about this for direct.......I wouldn't know NOR would you. Let me see if I got this correct. The casino staff (I dont mean the idiot dealer) take no precautions of any sort? No counter measures against a SURE THING if there was a  tilt/bias?

They are simply going to allow you to win a S**TLOAD and think nothing of it? I'll tell ya what, for alot of AP (the broken dream) guys here, I'm surprised no one has answered my AP question.   I answered you, are you gonna answer me Zindrod?

Ken

[GogoCro]

We can not disccuss methods what works only on purpose setted/tilted wheels. that serves no purpose. We can design roulette to have odds 1:5 on EC or printed layout with 25 red numbers..would method based on that odds work? Yes, but in wich casino,lol?

[Kelly]

Gogo, no disrespect but you really havent got a clue. And you cant read the chart correct.  Ken you dont use the chart. You measure the rotor speed and you then know which clocking key you use. The rest is already built into the visual clock key

And the dealer dont mean a thing, he can spin 8, 13, 28 ball revoloutions in a spin, i dont care. Im only interested in the last 6 revoloutions.

So i cant measure the ball speed. Alright, so lets asume i cant learn the beat of 1.0 second by heart, even though a drummer can. I will then buy a metronome watch, set it up with 60 BPM,  and put it on my arm.  I then look where the ball is when i feel a thump from the watch. We say its at 7 oclock in the wheel. Next thump, the ball has taken another revoloution and the thump comes when the ball is at 8 oclock. Next time the thump comes the ball is again at 8 oclock, which means that i have just identified a specific ball revoloution one that takes 1 second,  and i now know that the ball will take another 5 revoloutions before it drops.

Wupti, i just measured the ball speed with no stress at all. 

Ken i give up on you. Why do you think they changed the frets to low profile ? Why is the Starburst profile invented ? Why is the drop sector analysis in the wheel  invented ? Why do you think they call early no more bets ?  Would all that be nesscary if all wheels are oh so unpredictable. 

By the way, a tilt does not interfere with the number stream from the wheel. Its not a kind of bias that influences the outcome numbers.

[Mr J]

"Why do you think they changed the frets to low profile? Why is the Starburst profile invented? Why is the drop sector analysis in the wheel  invented? Why do you think they call early no more bets?" >>> All the more correct for me. I am NOT saying that under PERFECT conditions, your bag of tricks does not work. My point is, the casinos continue to put up obstacles for 'the crew' and you guys continue to post stories of  taking down casinos (joking).

One could argue the reason for putting max bets on roulette. Playing a Marty?


Ken

[GogoCro]

Kelly, that is only one factor and no enough.. Where is rotor speed, starting point, colleration to rotor eg numbers? Ball is not only one moving you know..rotor spins on opposite direction, ball after hitting a diamond is all over the wheel! So predict that with bpm metronom.
How can you know where ball is landing after hitting a diomond only with ball speed,while rotor spining in opposite direction. Diamonds are there to asure ball is bounced of, which simulate random event.Its bounced off every time diffrently and that hit force the ball in some unknown direction then after can catch some pocket, then change direction even get some momentum from rotor wich btw is still turning - need to say more? Case close. You can talk all you want about revolutions, speed bla bla bla..after hitting a diamond or something else, rotor border, no meassure can help you.
No more bets exist that nobody place a bet in last second so nobody can despute or fight it. And why would any casino allow that and bother with it? Casino does not care is some "method" really work or not. It does not cost a dime to introduce new rules or meassures - they defent bussiness. Does it work? Who care, its not worth a risk.

So NOW tilted wheel sudenly have no influance on outcome, hmmmm..what to say..

[Kelly]

Enough of this.

Last post.

Rotor speed is measured in the first 3 - 4 seconds.  Same way as measuring the ball, just a simpler, since it is simpler. 

Starting point.  Why would i need that, like i said, they can spin the ball 12 or 28 revoloutions it doesnt matter, so why would i need a starting point.

The average scatter can be seen in the first chart i posted in reply 41.

The bigger diamonds the better. The manufacturers now knows this so they have started to make them smaller and more round. A huge diamond ensures a fixed drop point towards the rotor on a  tiltet wheel, a small diamond where the ball more or less just rolls over the diamond, is poison to the VB player.

No, tiltet wheels has no influence on the number stream, simple checking can confirm that. If the wheel has another bias down in the wheel, it might be helpfull though.

Ken the "stories" you mention can all be verified by the casinos i have mentioned.  If you ask people who works with the casino surveillance business, they can confirm it too. You dont have to believe ME, ask someone else who is in the business.

Speaking of claims, on this board alone there must be 20 - 30 consistenrt winners using gamblers fallacy and what have we got.  Can the casinos or surveillance confirm their stories ?  No, because they are fiction.

End of last post.

[Zindrod]

How about this for direct.......I wouldn't know NOR would you. Let me see if I got this correct. The casino staff (I dont mean the idiot dealer) take no precautions of any sort? No counter measures against a SURE THING if there was a  tilt/bias?

They are simply going to allow you to win a S**TLOAD and think nothing of it? I'll tell ya what, for alot of AP (the broken dream) guys here, I'm surprised no one has answered my AP question.   I answered you, are you gonna answer me Zindrod?

Ken

So you obviously think that tilt is only a wheel that is out of level right? And yes I would know. Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel. That is about it. 99,9% of players are like you Ken. So it really isn't necessary for casinos to go overboard with precautions. In some cases a wheel would have to be replaced to negate the tilt.  In other words some wheels cannot be fixed.

What was your AP question? 

regards
Z

[win1win2]

G'day to all

Last week my Dublinbets test a/c was at 40k now 70k.

I use base start bets $100....

is this a  "GF'.


I did it with

1...a fix mechanical bet selection..If  win always bet the pattern will cont.

2...I study gaming Arithmetic





Basic of a mechanical bet selection
..........................Bet..............................................................................bet
...................................................................

B........................Wait.........................................P..................................wait

BB........................B...........................................PP...................................P

BP......................wait........................................PB...................................wait


BPB.......................P.........................................PBP..................................B
..l..
BBP......................B..........................................PPb..................................P

BPP......................P

BPBB....................B  (dominance0

BPBP...................B  ( chop)

BPPB..................P..........if  .........BBPPB.........BBBPPB.........bet .............B......(steaky

BBBP..................B.........If  .........PPBBBP......,,.....................Bet.............P......(steaky

BBPB.................B.......


iT IS JUST A GUIDE TO PLACE A BET FOR NEXT HAND

to be a winner u need to know the GAMING ARITHMETIC



WHAT IS "GAMING ARITHMETIC"

A player who knows GAMING ARITHMETIC  will know his SYSTEMATIC TRENDS  BETTING is in

A: Bad       mode
B: Fair       mode
C: Strong  mode


It also trigger when to flat ,increase, stop, new session, reducing, and sequence  over=  profit..


SYSTEMATIC TRENDS BETTING will not have more winning hands but if trends is running in strong mode
it will win multiple hands in a roll.

So it needs GAMING ARITHMETIC  to have knowledge on when to increase and when to reduce.

To win in a game u need to win more when u win.....lose less when u lose....


Most common Phrase from players..when bets  are small win most of the time.
when increase loss most of the time....WHY wrong timing....


another Player ...AHHH  I miss the 10h Banker  or miss the 10 chops......why.....

Systematic trends Betting will not miss any of  it but will not win  much   (...if flat betting)


Wishing all best of lucks.....WIN MORE WHEN  WIN>>>>>>>LOSE LESS WHEN LOSE....


WIN1WIN2>>>>Bets without fear many WINWINWINS are here...

Dublinbets a/c will reach 100k soon.

[GogoCro]

Kelly, if you dont want to talk/debate with valid arguments - then dont. Its my opinion and I do not force you nor anybody to accept it. If anybody want to dispute/debate please free to contribute in discussion.
There is not need to bold line (last post) - little ridiculus.

You just have said what is a poison to VB (small diamonds eg diamonds). Industry included those meassures to assure fair-play and random event so nobody could predict outcome. If some method relie on false belive that some factor change outcome - its x fallacy. I agree that many systems here and on oher places are GF. I claim that AP is another sort of fallacy. I would like to talk about prove how AP is succesful on casino table. That is hole point here.What other bias exist on casino wheel (not privat) what has a power to influance outcome and be certant that is DUE that bias. Its imaginarny factor.
What is a point of knowing speed of ball and rotor without knowing position related to number pockets? Like only with speed data you know where in space that ball really is and where will land?
Supose that rotor (numbers) would be in fixed position and wheel without diamonds? It would be relativly easy to predict outcome. It does not matter are meassuress included in (hardware) design or rules - that unsure fairplay of the game.
AP players debate as success where ball will hit a diamond. what happens next is irellevant. And they celebrate how their method works just if they predict wich diamond is hitted more, like that is all about.
Even with fixed rotor and without obstacles (diamonds) would be difficult, I dare to say impossible to track those factors/varibles to human.

Ap players are players without a game to play anymore. Its not sutible in casino worldwide.
Kelly, you do not need to respond (remember your "last post") but you stil can and why not? I would like to hear your opinions and basys as well.

[ReDsQuaD]

Wow Ken what a hot topic you created here lol.

James.

[Mr J]

Wow Ken what a hot topic you created here lol.

James.

Not to sound like an a** but the BEST threads are the ones where posters dont agree with each other.

Other good threads? When posters dont want to ATTACH their name to a sensitive subject matter in fear they may be quoted sometime down the road. I actually like it when certain posters dont answer a question of mine, it says alot.

Ken

[Mr J]

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