AP.....this is too funny

[Mr J]

How many times have I argued with other AP (cough) guys here regarding using PAST numbers? They *ALL* say, using past numbers in ANY form is gamblers fallacy and a NO, NO.

Really? >> nolinks://rouletteplace.com/index.php?topic=1234.msg11902;topicseen#new

[nullified]

I wonder if people really know what "Gambler's Fallacy"

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nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacyis anymore.  It used to mean a belief that certain numbers (or colors, or dozens) were "due" after an imbalance in their distribution had been observed in the short term.

Nowadays, it seems that anytime someone uses past results of any kind at all, they are "guilty" of being novices who know nothing at all except the Gambler's Fallacy.

So what does that leave us, then?  Predicting numbers?  Predicting locations?  Wheel clocking? Dealer bias?

Thanks, but no thanks.  I can't see myself trying to predict numbers or smuggling some computer gizmo into a casino to try to clock a wheel.

But I may decide to use a bonafide science called statistics to determine the likelihood of 24 numbers hitting within 37.  Perhaps not as fancy as prediction or clocking, but - and this is just my personal opinion - It's probably more profitable.

[Mr J]

Besides that......my MAIN point is, the number of times 'they' have bashed method players for using PAST numbers. 'They' have said, using past numbers in ANY form is gamblers fallacy.......its their quote, not mine.

Ken

[Mr J]

This is a QUOTE (today) from a well known AP guy >> "an advantage player uses past spins".

Ken

[MiniBaccarat]

G'day nullified,

.............................................So what does that leave us, then?  Predicting numbers? 
Predicting locations?  Wheel clocking? Dealer bias?........................................

What about a purely mechanical mathematical system that HAS
to be in profit after 50 decisions (average 25 units per hour).

Glenn.

[nullified]

Glenn,

My point was simply that - using past spins to create a method does not mean it is Gambler's Fallacy.  Statistics as a science is based on logical analysis of the past. 

I have no doubt there are at least half a dozen bonafide roulette methods that are truly worth their weight in gold.  I believe I have one of those (sorry, I'm not prepared to share it openly on this forum yet...), and perhaps you have one too.

But to ascribe analysis of past spins as Gambler's Fallacy is pretty simplistic.  That's my personal view, and that's the only point I was trying to make...

Thanks for your thoughts!

[nullified]

This is a QUOTE (today) from a well known AP guy >> "an advantage player uses past spins".

Ken

Mr J

I wasn't disagreeing with you... You bring up a good point.  I think the term "Gambler's Fallacy" gets used more as a term of derision than anything else.

[Bayes]

I agree, GF is a much over-used term. There's an interesting passage in the Wikipedia entry for Gaming Mathematics -

Games of chance are not merely pure applications of probability calculus and gaming situations are not just isolated events whose numerical probability is well established through mathematical methods; they are also games whose progress is influenced by human action. In gambling, the human element has a striking character. The player is not only interested in the mathematical probability of the various gaming events, but he or she has expectations from the games while a major interaction exists. To obtain favorable results from this interaction, gamblers take into account all possible information, including statistics, to build gaming strategies. The predicted future gain or loss is called expectation or expected value and is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by its payoff (value). Thus, it represents the average amount one expects to win per bet if bets with identical odds are repeated many times. A game or situation in which the expected value for the player is zero (no net gain nor loss) is called a fair game. The attribute fair refers not to the technical process of the game, but to the chance balance house (bank)–player.

Even though the randomness inherent in games of chance would seem to ensure their fairness (at least with respect to the players around a table—shuffling a deck or spinning a wheel do not favor any player except if they are fraudulent), gamblers always search and wait for irregularities in this randomness that will allow them to win. It has been mathematically proved that, in ideal conditions of randomness, no long-run regular winning is possible for players of games of chance. Most gamblers accept this premise, but still work on strategies to make them win over the long run.
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[Pedro]

If anyone visits Crown casino on a regular basis and watch Ms Roulette (nic name) win as she does just by watching the past numbers and waiting for the cluster and as we all know numbers will cluster, they would have to eat their words if they thought for a minute that AP doesnt work.

[pins]

please tell me what a cluster is. as i want to start winning. all players use past numbers  some times they work and sometimes they do not.like all systems they fail. different people look at the board and say the next number is. your guess is as good as mine.  the casino is a very dangerous  place. look at the overheads the staff. and the maths. and silly people think they can win. myself  also. people will tell you they can beat slot machines. that are proagramed to make a profit. i have found playing roulette sometimes winning is easy. the numbers just come out as you predict.  but one day you will go to the casino and nothing works.
back to square one . i have people tell me i lost 500 hundred. is this something to be proud of. do not let me put you off gambling just send me the winning system. good luck

[Pedro]

Ok I agree there are silly people that dont have a loss stop, Ms Roulette jumps tables after a double loss you see she places big bets $25 a number and then doubles up on a win,I have seen her hit $100 a number and clean up many times, now this may help you look at these numbers  2   6  17   what do you see its quite simple the wheel is being hit on that sector you place a bet from 21 to 27 and hit it for four spins only stop on a win ,it doesnt win all the time but it sure does win.

[pins]

i see lots of people win big money.  we assume they are winning the question is are they. i have won big myself and looked at the suckers who were losing.  i was smart. but my turn was to come when i joined the suckers.i have come to the conclusion that when you win . then you must lose.  thats what the maths say. and you must lose more then you win. work it out. 37. or 38.
numbers.    i have to say what you do not want to hear. good luck.

[pins]

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