progressions on outside bets

[rob567]

I notice that many roulette players are obsessed with progressions on outside bets. They will never work. Ultimately you are going to get a loss and with progressions based on outside bets it takes too long to recoup from that loss. Especially when you are waiting for rare triggers like 8 reds in a row or something silly like that.

Take a very basic martingale

5-10-20-40-80

the loss is at a ratio of 31:1

regardless of progression, shallow or not you will lose eventually and all that matters then is how much damage it does and what does it take to recover.

[lucky_strike]

Exactly

Cheers LS

[toby]

lucky, remenber that Marigny used a progression on even money bets some time ago.
Do you remenber?   1   1.5   2   2.5   and   3

regards

[lucky_strike]

Carlo. One good conclusion, when you lose, lose less.

Toby. I don´t use Marigny, i use Lucky Strikes Methodologies

Cheers Lucky Strike

[rob567]

In probability distribution there is mathematical symmetry. Any attempt to change the odds will only cause the negitive to shift to the oppposite side and balance the equation. In high beta variable probability like EC bets, loss is enevitable. If loss is possible and in this case certain then you will be no further ahead.

Any system that incorporates progression with outside bets will lose in the long term. Any I imagine it's the reason why casinos don't seem to have countermeasures for AP using progression in Roulette.

[lucky_strike]

You take the amount you are wagering and get the sqr then you divide it with the amount you gain then you have your Estat.

Thats how you make the caculation. How do you place your bets, subjective, mechanical, triggers, how do you play the EC?

Cheers and Happy Winnings to all... LS

[rob567]

I strictly use flatbetting. It reduces the ratio of loss to wins to an acceptable and managable range. It also allows you to maximize your bets which reduces the number of profit units required to meet the session goals.

With regards to EC's; If you are constrained by a table limit of 5 min 100 max and then base a progression off the 5 min. you will have to win 20 times to make the profit of a single max flatbet win.

In a table session of 50 spins, my personal maximum, it is impossible to gain an advantage of +40 minimum units over the table average. with progressions you would have to stay much longer than 50 spins to win 40 times even with a 100% win rate. But with a flat bet system you would only need to get to +2 in less than 50 spins, then leave.

That last word "leave" is the important one. Knowing when to leave is the key to success. Roulette and emotion don't mix. Have a goal. find the shortest distance to it, meet the goal, leave.

[toby]

How do you cope with the 2.7% if you flatbet?

you need a progression to do it soft or not but one of then.

The prog could be regular or on the winnings.


the only way to flatbet is if you hit more than average, do you?

[rob567]

Overcoming the house edge using flat bets requires the use of the most potent tool of the roulette player. not betting. The house can`t make you bet, you have to choose to.

If you can determine when to bet during times when there are more wins than losses to your system and not bet when there are more losses than wins you can beat house edge.

Not betting while actively playing a system is still affecting the overall statistical distribution. but instead of a loss it becomes neutral to the bankroll but still registers as a loss within the dataset.

[lucky_strike]

Carlo.
You have to change your method regarding level bets.
I am frendly so my suggestion is that you can take a look at GG the baccarat section.

Give Johno and Gr8player some attention.
Then you might at least get some inspiration.
Personally - i find - that Gr8players "Sliding Scale" works great, but it also depends on that i know where and why i place a bet on the green carpet.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[rob567]

Thanks for the suggestion but Baccarrat isn`t my cup of tea. Never been too big on card games.

But I will stick to what I said. Progressions are futile on outside bets as long as you can`t elliminate losses. Otherwise long term your bankroll will be hurt. It needlessly prolongs time at the table and reduces the ammount you can win per spin. Time is the great equalizer in roulette. It will always shove you back to the statistical average. If you have a system that you cannot prove mathematically gives you an edge over the house then you have to assume the house will win. But along the journey to loss you will have times when you are ahead and times when you are behind. The pluses will not be great so you have to make the most of it. You need to make as much as you can each time so that when there is deviation from the norm in your favor it can be capitalized on.

All you need is a flat bet at max, a simple system that behaves in near neutralality with little beta and the dicipline to leave when the ecart goes in your favour.

I only need +2 units and I have 200 in my pocket. I ain`t there for fun, just money and if I can do it on 2 spins then I am out of there.

[lucky_strike]

Playing baccarat or the EC is 1/2  :-?

Happy winnings to all  

Cheers LS

[rob567]

True baccarat is EC in terms of odds. (well sort of)

But baccarat is not a stochastic event. There is a dynamic stucture to the odds as the shoe is played out. The odd are actually variable. And the limited number of bets possible prevents me from doing what it is that I prefer to do. Though simular, systems would have to be structured different to work.

[rob567]

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