Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[Mr J]

So you obviously think that tilt is only a wheel that is out of level right? And yes I would know. Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel. That is about it. 99,9% of players are like you Ken. So it really isn't necessary for casinos to go overboard with precautions. In some cases a wheel would have to be replaced to negate the tilt.  In other words some wheels cannot be fixed.

What was your AP question?  

regards
Z

It depends on how you are asking the question. I thought you meant, if we both sat at a table and observed it for a few spins, would we know its tilted or not? "Casinos take basic daily measures like putting a spirits level on the wheel" >>> Yes I know, all the more reasons making me look correct.

Good post >> nolinks://onlinegamblingexposed.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2251&p=5672#p5672


Reply #4 >>> nolinks://vlsroulette.com/wheel-bias/question-t17234/

[Kelly]

Since you ask so nicely gogo, I will give it a little shot again. Mostly because its a bit frustrating to see that you guys make wrong interpretations of things.

Tiltet wheel:

Does not change the the randomness in the outcome numbers, so if the casinos rarely or never has visits from VB players, they can basicly have all their wheels tiltet and their costoumers still have a fair random play. Hence some casinos are not worried if a few wheels has 2 - 3 main strike diamonds.  Pierre Basieux once tryed to remove all diamonds on a test wheel at home and his VB play suddenly became more or less random because when the ball left the track, it went into a spiral over several revoloutions before it hit the rotor at a random spot. The tiltet wheel ensures that when the VB player predicts 4 revoloutions before the ball drops, the ball WILL drop after 4 revs. (because it hits the diamond,  and not 4.2 or 4.5 or 4.8 revoloutions which would make the prediction invalid.

PS: Some casinos actually still use a level for measuring the tilt, the more correct way is to use a 3 legged level, or similar, nolinks://nolinks.tcsjohnhuxley.com/en/live-gaming/roulette-wheels/auuc-level.html which is put on the ball track where the ball runs. It will not find a worn track spot, but it will find a tilt. The track is getting a bit worn where the dealer releases the ball because of the friction when he sends the ball spinning. This wear and tear can also cause the ball to drop at this spot because there will be higher friction for the ball here. This might also cause a dominant drop zone even though the wheel is not tiltet.To counter that, they can rotate the wheel so the wear and tear is more evenly distributed in the track.

"I would like to talk about prove how AP is succesful on casino table"

I have posted a link to an interview of one the most famous (to the public) VB players. Kaisan. It is dismissed as rubbish, but I suggest you contact Mike Barnett who owns Survtech in australia. Barnett is not just anybody, he was called in as a consultant after The Ritz incident where he helped the casino and the Metropolitan police with interviewing staff and watching surveillance tapes.  He knows Kaisan and his son, he knows Kowacs, Nico Tosa etc. etc. and a bunch of other 20 people who all are unwanted by the casino because they are too successfull using VB. You dont have to rely on what I write here, there are plenty of people in the real world that can verify what I write, is true.  If the casinos suspect there are VB play taking place, they DO take counter measures, the first one is usually to call No More Bets after the ball has spun 2 - 3 ball revoloutions.

"What is a point of knowing speed of ball and rotor without knowing position related to number pockets?"

When the prediction is made, I obviously also knows the rotor/numbers relative position to the remaing running lenght of the ball.If the wheel was tiltet and the rotor was standing still, the ball would hit the same diamond every time and it would fall down on the same part of numbers every time, and you would get the same 3 - 7 outcome numbers all the time. In real life the rotor is moving but  if you look at the chart from Steve Forte, every rotor speed has a different "pocket travelling lenght" in the last 10 seconds. Hence a different point of "visual clock key" but it ensures that you are almost just as certain on which part of the rotor the ball will hit, as if the rotor was standing still.


"Even with fixed rotor and without obstacles (diamonds) would be difficult, I dare to say impossible to track those factors/varibles to human."

You are probably right, asuming a tilt but without the obstacles, the ball would not hit the diamond and the part of the rotor it hits first would probably go from 3 - 7 numbers to 12 - 18 numbers. Much wider spread.

Ap players are players without a game to play anymore. Its not sutible in casino worldwide.

Not true, but im not gonna post in here where you can go and play, those things really ARE big secrets. Not to sound mysterious, but I know that some people would get very angry with me if started giving out that kind of info. Even amongst VB players, we are reluctant to give that info to each other. Imagine you were a slot player and were playing a faulty slot machine, would you name where it were located to another friend/slot player just to find him sitting there next time you entered the casino. Im regularly in contact with with Cristian Kaisan, but he doesn`t tell me where he plays before he is barred. Then i can have the info, because he is gone. As it turns out, we have been playing in the same area for at least a year but he and his son is now barred there.

[GogoCro]

Nice post Kelly, I like to talk with posters who explain their claims as you did. Maybe for me is difficult to express in english and to find proper words. But I would do my best to discuss all aspects what interes me.

In first part where you explained what tilt really mean I do not belive that tilt can have a strenth for such bias.
Tilt/flaw/friction/scratrch/whathever - if present, role of those flaws is not such significant to bias/advatntage likey AP claims. Ball have to small mass and fraction of degree or even larger values (in tilted wheel) is not enough. Any flow just add to random event but can not give advantage.
-A comparation;
Like bullet fired from a rifle on 5 meter distance. Gravity have not enough power to change bullet direction/speed on such short distance. -

Your "pocket travelling lenght" explains a lot but you still need exact point/orientier during spin with a fact that speed ball/rotor is not constant. (yes, you explained that too, but is not acepted; privat wheel)So in other word, margin of error is to high and advantage is ungrounded.
Its still relie on guess how much relovultions left till end on spin. Varibles wich are involved of bouncing ball from diamonds are every time diffrent.Ball can bounce on other side of rotor/pockets.Rotor can gave ball some opossite momentum. That is all variables what are unpredictible.

Nobody can "know/process" so many factors not to mention place the bets acordingly in such short time. Like I said, its impossible to humans.
Anyway, you explained some part what I did not undesrund so thanks for that.

EDIT;
I decided to leave this forum after I read BIG banner what Steve made with personal details of others.
That is sick. Steve, try to learn how to behave and what you write on internet!
SHAME ON YOU Steve. YOU HAVE NOT HONOR !

[keel44]

If you saw 15 blacks in a row, you certainly saw the very first black to show.  Had you decided to "follow the last" decision after that first black, you would have won 14 spins in a row.

Now, how were you to know after that first black, you would get 14 more?  You don't know, but you stop betting when a red shows.  This costs you one chip to find out if a long streak is here. 

Now, how do you know when a streaking tendency is happening ?  You must make an educated guess as to what has happened in the past.  In the flow if you will.  Your guesses will cost you chips to find out if your guesses are indeed accurate.  A correctly guessed trend can profit you tons while an incorrect guessed trend can only cost you a few.

My point being, is logical trend guessing and optimal game play management based on gambler's fallacy? (false belief) or is it based on just the opposite......a true belief, that trends happen all the time in a variety of ways?  Ride from trend to trend for infinity ---- living in the present moment of the roulette wheel if you will.

I am just theorizing.............

[Kelly]

In first part where you explained what tilt really mean I do not belive that tilt can have a strenth for such bias.
Tilt/flaw/friction/scratrch/whathever - if present, role of those flaws is not such significant to bias/advatntage likey AP claims. Ball have to small mass and fraction of degree or even larger values (in tilted wheel) is not enough. Any flow just add to random event but can not give advantage.

Im afraid you still don`t get it. That was why i really didn`t wanted top debate it anymore.  You have some pretty bold statements on what causes what, but without having done any of it by yourself. Just one gambling chip under the wheel in one side is enough to cause a bias that strong. But i don`t think you quite got the importance of the tilt for the VB player.

Never mind, no one can say i didn`t try.

[GogoCro]

Yes Kelly, I do have my opinions and its really you who do not get it and who belives that ANY no matter how small flaw/tilt can give an advantage - that is bold statemant! You do not want to debate because you can not desputi it with facts. One chip under wheel - that condition is impossible to find in casino wheel. How to express myself, lower than that "one chip under tilt" can not significant change anything - so searching wheels what have condition "one chip under the wheel" in casino condisions looks little ridiculus /(Don Quijote fight).Lower strenth tilt/flow only add to random event - nothing more - to belive it does, really give advantage its sort of fallacy - despute that if you can.
I can agree that some HIGH tilt/flaw have influance (to what end depend on flaw/tilt) but it can not be found and would be spoted by casino operators.

Put it simple -
AP players who belive that any small sort of flawnes/tilt (what no operators can detect) can be exploited to their advantage is false belifs - in other words Fallacy.
And just to add; AP players do not play anything - they exploit and some other term is sutible for them. They lost perspective of GAME of the roulette itself.Such "play" has nothing to do with the game, odds, expetections, pleassure. Just to debate with real roulette players is arogant and insulting.

[Kelly]

I can agree that some HIGH tilt/flaw have influance (to what end depend on flaw/tilt) but it can not be found and would be spoted by casino operators.

Like I said its a useless debate, if you don`t believe that some people has put some serious dents in some casinos bottom line using VB on TLTET wheels, and still does,  ask the guy on this site. He assisted the Ritz casino and the Metropolitan police after Nico Tosa and his crew took a million off the Ritz. Using VB.

Maybe this will enlighten you a little bit on what the tilt does.
nolinks://nolinks.survtech.com.au/roulette.htm

The movie is partly a description of his computer but he also explains that it is how traditional wheel clocking is performed.  Like it or not, thats how its done and your statements over tilts is merely an opinion based on your believes not on facts you researched in. I have. Steve has. Forester has. Thorpe has. Laurance Scott has. Pierre Basieux has. Mike Barnett has. Tosa has. Kaisan has. At least 100 people other than that has.  We all come to the same conclusions, that somehow dont really match your beliefs.

Peace with that, but the debate part  from my side over.

[GogoCro]

Its still relie on belifs! Many things can cause somebody to be in profit - luck, trend - in random event everithing is possible - some tilt/flow has nothing to do with it.. Its random thing.
Which factors confirm/prove advantage? Secret is not an argument. to draw a pararel in some cases system player can be in profit due some positive trends.
Billard table can be tilted in some level but have not significant influance on ball.

Anyway, AP is at least morraly questionable and " APplay" has nothing to do with roulette game anymore. That VB crew can used gun to steal money - that method also work but has nothing with game nor AP does.

[Kelly]

Here is what Mike Barnett said about the Ritz incident. I have bolded 1 line


I examined all the evidence, including several mobile phones, held at Scotland Yard by the Specialist & Economic Crime Directorate.

I spoke with the arresting officers, members of the Club Squad.

I spoke with gaming staff that were present on the nights in question.

I spoke with the surveillance team who monitored and analyzed the action.

I watched surveillance video tape footage of the action.

I listened to recorded audio of the action.

I examined the running sheets of all bets made.

There was no evidence whatsoever of device use.

The Ritz Club is small and exclusive; any suggestion that players could get away with filming a roulette wheel are not only ludicrous, it is also an insult to the professionalism of the Ritz Club staff.

Claims that no charges were pursued because device use is not an illegal act are totally without foundation.

I am not claiming that device use IS an illegal act; I am stating that, in this case, it was not an issue.

There is strong evidence that conditions on the nights in question were conducive to prediction techniques.

The betting patterns, execution and timing of wagers was professional and in line with known prediction techniques.

[Kelly]

Because we don't know what we don't know, casinos have great difficulty in adopting a pro-active approach to game protection.

We tend to react to a threat after we have had a good spanking at the hands of a competent advantage player.Casinos have games invented for them; someone else did the math to ensure that they have an edge against the public.

High-level advantage players are highly motivated and highly educated people; it isn't easy to come up with a way to legally gain an advantage against a game which has hard-coded rules to favour the house.Nevertheless, they have found, and are still finding ways to beat most casino games.

The bottom line is that these people know more about the games on offer than those who offer them.Let's face it; what chance do you have of detecting and neutralizing a player who knows more about the game than you do?

[Zindrod]

Kelly I'm afraid if people want to be stubborn even with clear evidence and descriptions from your side there is nothing you can do that will change their minds. One should actually just let it go. The more people with that kind of mindset the better for us.

[Nathan Detroit]

During  yesterdays  protests  in London the RITZ HOTEL was the  prime target of vandalism. Did you happen to see the videos?


nolinks://nolinks.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1370053/TUC-anti-spending-cuts-protest-200-arrested-500k-march-cut.html



Nathan Detroit

[Kelly]

I can see that its very uphill here and I got things to do. So if you wanna take over, be my guest  

PS: Hi Nathan, no i havent had a chance but i heard about it.  Same crowd new demonstration. Same buildings gets hit. Some people are just in it for the action, not the cause.

[Far-Q]

Kelly..thank you for the link....very informative.

[GogoCro]

There is strong evidence that conditions on the nights in question were conducive to prediction techniques.

Where is claimed strong evidence? Mike Barnett can not be objective person to this matter because he sell device and software for VB.

Anyway, its not up to me which people choose to involve police and criminal charge. Decsion is on them.Its relie on morral education. There is many educated people in jails. Game exist to play not to exploit it - there is nothing respectful in it.
Bank also incoporate protective meassures against thiefs. Casino protect the game to be random to all players with specific rules and regulations and roulette hardware design. If someone have bad intentions and is not there to play - its something entarealy diffrent. I do not symphatetise thiefs and scammers.

[GogoCro]

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