The Grail of Randomness

[crackers]

In case you haven't noticed, its not even having
an impact on this forum, let alone the world. You
can't beat the game with a bet that only pays back
half what the bet was. No matter how clever you
are.

That's funny. The only real danger is being exposed to the zeros twice during the
process to achieve balance. It takes two spins to balance the EC's. It takes three
spins to balance double dozen bets. In the end there is balance other than the
zeros. You are not the expert you would want people to think you are. Any way, I'll get to
the even chance bets.

[crackers]

Hi Gizmo . . . Great thread . . .lots to explore...
Thanks . . . Nick

There are several topics to discuss that can apply to what you said. One is the
existence of the global effect, not yet discussed. The other is that the dominance
of the reds was a good stretch. It's was about time for a change. You had good
evidence of a change. You would have had a good stretch with the reds. Yes, I would
change to black. But before I did that I would seek a better trend.

[crackers]

Many people have asked me about the short term results where you look back three
spins. There's not much information there on its own. If it exists, you want to identify
an existing context. I've referred to this as the "global effect." This way of seeking
context is a way of attempting to find an over all characteristic that is in a condition
of continuing. So it gives a similarity to meaning for those three spins back. The best
way to show trend information is by illustrating it by example. Perhaps some people
here can post examples that either shows this or that they can ask questions about.

[Nickmsi]

Hi Gizmo . .  Not sure if this qualifies for global effect but this is what I have found so far.  I am still dealing with sleepers, repeaters and dominance right now.

You said earlier that a dozen sleeps 12 times about every 150 -200 spins or so.  I did a test in Excel for 1,000 spins at a time and confirmed this.  The attached Excel worksheet shows the following results for 30,000 spins.

It showed 268 dozens slept 12 times or more.

Then I asked myself, what are the odds of that dozen continuing to sleep or waking up.  We have seen so many systems based on this belief that it is "bound" to wake up so start your progression engines.

I then tested to see how many of the sleeping dozens woke up and how many keep sleeping.  The results were 66% kept sleeping and 34% woke up.  Spot on for the "math guys".  It makes no difference if it is the first spin or after 12 sleeping spins, the odds are the same. Each spin is independent, etc.

Since randomness is in a constantly changing state, I asked myself, would one of the characteristics of randomness, ie, Dominance, have any effect on these sleeping dozens.

The Dominant Dozen is the one that has been spun more often than either of the two others. If after 200 spins dozen #1 = 70, dozen #2 = 75, dozen #3 =55, dozen #2 is the dominant dozen.

I tested for 50,000 spins and found 428 dozens that slept for 12 spins or more.  Of that number,  274 continued to sleep (about 65%) which is expected.

However, of that 274 dozens that continued to sleep, 212 of them were not the dominant dozen. That's 77%.  It was 79% of the not dominant dozen that woke up?

It appears that the condition of Dominance is continuing.  I am not a math guy, but it appears that if we bet only on the submissive dozens that we would win more?  Can someone interpret these results?

Thanks . . . Nick

PS on this Excel spreadsheet, simply press function key F9 to get another 1000 spins and a new breakdown of dominance so you can test it yourself.










 

[crackers]

Nickmsi, that's great. I can't wait for this topic to have it take on a life of its own.
Other people will take the lead. You will learn about the nature of randomness
with your computer. I spent years on hot numbers. Eventually you will become
confident that randomness just acts common.

This is cool. If you identify a trend that continues then you can treat it like
an ATM machine. If it continues then its like knowing what comes next. Even
though you have no idea what comes next it works that way if it continues.

[crackers]

Nicksmi -" I am still dealing with sleepers, repeaters and dominance right now."

Don't leave out singles in series. They go on runs too.

[cheese]

If you identify a trend that continues then you can treat it like
an ATM machine.

The fantasy that never dies. Casino=ATM

[crackers]

The fantasy that never dies. Casino=ATM

The thread disrupter is here. You will not learn anything.from him. He knows just
about everything but won't share anything. He does hope to take this topic off
course if he can. Why, you will have to judge for yourself. Up till now he has been
effective because he knew I was still guarding  my secrets. But that's all changed
now. I'm answering all the questions and attempting to give answers that include
details.

[crackers]

Identify the trend.

rrrrBBBBBrrrrrBBBBrrrrrrBBBrrrr

When the change comes it repeats at least two more times. That's an example of
the global effect.

If you apply yourself, and with illustrations like this, you will learn to identify
enough characteristics to make trend identification a very common craft.

[crackers]

" As far as what you posted on the global effect. You said that when a change happens it repeats itself at least 2 more times. By the example you gave I'm a little bit confused. Could you possibly clarify a little more? Are you taking about the duration of the streaks/chops or are you talking about it reversing, because in the example the R/B go on runs of the same duration as the opposite one before it.

Also, do you consider a lost bet as a trend change, or is it just an indication the trend might be changing. Do you stop betting and re-evaluate or move to something that might be starting to form a better trend."

It's much easier to deal with all enquiries here.

[crackers]

Let's look closer at what happened. rrrrBBBBBrrrrrBBBBrrrrrrBBBrrrr

Red hit 4, 5, 6, & 4. Black hit 5, 4, & 3.  With the Black hitting just three
times in that last time after it changed to Black it hit just two more
times.

Regarding your second question: It depends on what kind of trend you are following.
If you are following a dominance then you want to continue as long as it continues.
If you are following a specific pattern then you want to stop following it with pattern
styled bets. But you may wish to start betting it again if it shows that it was just a hiccup.
Sometimes the perfect pattern transitions to a dominant pattern before it disappears.

[crackers]

Some of you just don't believe any of this. You've demanded proof from me
for years. I've had that proof all along. Just go over to the German websites
that have archived past spins from real Roulette wheels. If you see 12 reds
in a row then you were just looking at a bag of gold.

Now many of you admit that on its own it's  a great opportunity but you also
demand that attempting to bet on trends gives you enough losses to make
going after them pointless. And you didn't think I was listening.

Here is the trick I kept to myself. It only takes one or two trials to get
into the positive position. That means that each time you attack a potential
trend you need to win the first half of the balance point in EC's and the first
two in the double dozen bets. After that it's all gold.

So how do I do it? I do it by always playing to stay even or to hold on to my
rising position. That ability is a craft in and of itself. It a prerequisite skill. You
will fail at this without that skill. Anyone could attack the trends if it didn't matter
how much they lost trying. A child could do it. But it's not that easy, is it?

[cheese]

Ok, you just want to talk about what you do. Fine, just
remember you asked for it.

Whats your hit rate per 100 bets, given 5-6 zeros per
100 bets. That should be easy to answer, you say
you've been playing this for years. How many times
are you right per 100 bets and how many times are
you wrong. I know what my hit rate is and so do
you, I announced it 5 years ago.

[crackers]

Ok, you just want to talk about what you do. Fine, just
remember you asked for it.

Whats your hit rate per 100 bets, given 5-6 zeros per
100 bets. That should be easy to answer, you say
you've been playing this for years. How many times
are you right per 100 bets and how many times are
you wrong. I know what my hit rate is and so do
you, I announced it 5 years ago.

What a joke. I never thought about you and what you might do when I started this thread. Nobody cares about what you don't share.

[crackers]

Anyone that knows Roulette knows that streaks of trend types come and go. To keep
track of 100 bets at a time is almost a counter intuitive activity. Only a fool would
expect each 100 bets to be identical or even closely equivalent. My technique is based
on more than three spins back. Mathematically my hit rate is approximately 63%. But
nobody knows how many perfect trends will occur every 100 bets. While that takes
place, those perfect trends, my hit rate is 100%. So based on basic randomness, the
way I see it, It's impossible to claim an accurate hit rate. Every visit to the casino is
a unique experience. Only a fool would expect the same statistics for each visit to the
casino.

[crackers]

-