dozen trend bet

[ryan08]

try this, i think marven had this idea of tracking and betting, not sure but anyway,

track 9 spins, looking for the most dominant dozen 1st, then look for the 2nd most aswell.

play 2units on the dominant and 1 unit on the 2nd dominant,

2unit= +3 1unit= breakeven loss= -3

covers 65% of the table but a 1 loss can be recovered by a win
i know twelve of the numbers wont profit but breakeven, but it also gives you another chance to bet if you choose,

it may work or it may not but its all flatbet so might be good for stinging a few units each day

[Raymond]

Play this with the same dealer

[Marven]

Hey Ryan,

Nice idea.

I'm still looking for a decent way to bet on the dozen trends. My initial observation was that dozens often come in trends, or what I like to call 'seasons'.
Here is an example using some real spins (a randomly selected session) converted into dozens (1-2-3):

2
3
2
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
2 <--- Starts here
2
3
1
0
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
2 <---- Ends here. That was a 2-3 season.
1 <--- Starts here
1
3
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
1
2
1
1 <---- Ends here. That was a 1-2 season.
2
3
3
1
1
3 <--- Starts here
1
3
3
2
3
2
3
1
3
1
3
2
2 <---- Ends here. That was a 2-3 season.
1
1
1
3
1
1
3 <--- Starts here
2
2
1
2
1
2
3
3
3
2
3
0
1
3
3
3
1
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
3
3
2 <---- Ends here. That was a 2-3 season.
1
1
1
2
1
1


My initial idea was to try and find a way to take advantage of these 'seasons'.

The difficulty here lies in the fact that we can't predetermine when a season is going to END, that is why all 'systems' trying to use this fail eventually. Because every system that tries to take advantage of the trends relies on a certain unchangeable number or set of past events to determine the moment of attack. (For example my idea was to track 5 spins, yours is to track 9, etc.)
This can't work simply because that's not how randomness works.

As you can see in the example above, every season comes containing a (randomly) different number of spins. They vary from very short, to very long.

My best,
Marven

[Marven]

A Few Related Ideas for the Heck of it:

The problem, as I see it, is that every system uses strict-predetermined rules, and rules fail against randomness, therefore systems fail against randomness in the long run.

With that in mind, I went as far as starting to think of making a system that relies on no such rules (I'm aware that this already contradicts the term 'system') but mainly human decisions that are based on an intensively and specifically trained (over a good period of time) sort of 'trends intuition' (for lack of a better word). Then we would test that and compare the results with those of an ordinary system that relies on a certain amount of tracking, etc (rules).

I know this sounds like something to be laughed at, but hey this is the brainstorming section.

Besides, I'm a firm believer in the fact that there is a great deal of unexploited potential within the human brain. So who says that -for instance- a daily cognitive study of the way trends randomly vary over thousands of spins might not eventually lead the brain to developing a subconscious ability to recognize a current trend and calculate its estimated length, in a way that leads us to win more than loose (as opposed to most systems that rely on a set amount of past events) and show better results compared to a 'system'.

Perhaps the Holy Grail is within the human brain, not systems; and all that's needed is a heavy training and cognition of the way trends form and dissolve.

Just a thought.

All the best,
Marven

[TwoCatSam]

Perhaps the Holy Grail is within the human brain, not systems; and all that's needed is a heavy training and cognition of the way trends form and dissolve.


Ah, ha!

[ryan08]

nice posts marven, i guess at a quick look from the seasons you noted, i guess you could use the 9 spin cycle to see if there is a change in the dominant dozens, if there is that will be the end of your season, i think the hard past is noticing them as early as possible to maximise the profit margin, i guess with the dominant dozens and correctly anticipating the next season, this could easily be profitable with flat bets, and looks potentially very powerful if able to do this

[ryan08]

13/2 +9
19/2 +15
10/3 +4
23/5 +13

results from the 4 seasons, flatbetted (1 unit on selected dozens to bet = total 2 units)

as you can see very good results playing the sessions to their optimum, also shows room for error so maybe its time to look at these trends a little harder and try to recognise what determines the start and end of a season

[ryan08]

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