Read this pdf: A Structural Modal of Intuitive Probability (2006)

[gizmotron]

A Structural Modal of Intuitive Probability (2006)

download the pdf here

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Spike said:  "To beat the math, you need to make up parameters that don't exist, and pretend they do. I said a long time ago that I made up a game I play within the existing game of roulette. In that game, conditional probability works on roulette."

Situational Awareness

Randomness

Randomness Has Characteristics

Reading Randomness

All these things have a relevance.

[gizmotron]

"The point of the paper is not to confirm this:

Bayesian probability
nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

Predictive inference
nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_inference

Subjective Probability
nolinks://nolinks.investopedia.com/terms/s/subjective_probability.asp

Conditional Probability
nolinks://nolinks.investopedia.com/terms/c/conditional_probability.asp

The point is to postulate Cognitive Intuition."

[Werdna]

Spike said:  "To beat the math, you need to make up parameters that don't exist, and pretend they do. I said a long time ago that I made up a game I play within the existing game of roulette. In that game, conditionalprobability works on roulette."

This is one of the better quotes on this forum, although I would say you don't NEED to make up parameters but it gets better if you can.

Gizmotron, I applaud you and Spike for your efforts on this forum. Not many would give up their time to help these people as you guys have (me included at this time). I just hope the members here take in your good advice and learn by themselves, it might seem to them that there are a few things missing at first but I'm sure it will come to those who persevere with the help all around them.

Thanks for the pdf, something more to make the front of my brain ache!!!

Werdna 

[gizmotron]

You might be surprised about the cryptic suggestion about making up parameters. Anyway, you want to be able to relate to the nature of randomness in an awareness kind of way. You must establish a way to recognize situations. I do that by practicing recognizing or recognition itself. The reason I do this is because almost all the time the trends, streaks, patterns, or dominances are unique. If you think about it, the most recent spins are unique anyway. I think people can learn to be comfortable with reading randomness as it happens. Using a parameter to get conclusions is one way to establish a premise for bet selection. It's just a tool to have a bet selection process. Didn't you know that educated guessing is about making an informed best guess based on experience and intuition. "How is it going" is very important. I'm constantly testing the scenarios in my mind, like a chess player looking at several options by imagining several moves ahead. I'm always searching for what is working best. This is different than what Spike does, I think. He has come up with a bet selection premise that looks back just a few spins and looks forward just to the next spin. In all that he knows intuitively that he must be aware of the situation that currently exists. I have no idea what he actually does. He never shared that with me. Perhaps there are many ways to relate to randomness as it occurs.

[Werdna]

Your quite right I have been suprised and the more in depth I go the more suprised I am.

One of the quotes which has helped me with this is Albert Einstien's "as far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
It does seem strange that the history books say, of all people, Albert Einstien was unable to beat Roulette.

I am sure the making up of parameters is key to extending the continuity of someones betting strategy because it means you have freedom of choice to do what you want with your bet. Alas I am not at this stage this week, I am however playing the likes of what Spike is playing, though I use the trigger from the randomness to tell me where to look at the few spins which will enable me to make a calculated guess, that allows me to play..depending on whats happened.

Having many ways to relate to randomness would surely be like having a genie in a bottle, something everyone should take the time to look for.

Werdna

[gizmotron]

Very few bother to practice real play techniques. I created a charting program to help others practice with. It was downloaded by a few and never had a discussion of its effectiveness. You can't use it in a casino anyway. It just saves me from having to write out charts on a card. At this point all I do is practice seeing powerful dominances. In effect, a zig zag chop in the EC's is a powerful dominance. I just see better ones in the table dozens & columns, and spoke shaped sets found on the wheel itself. I went with what I already had known very well as a playing style. I knew the dozens and columns and I knew hot number detection. For me it was learning how to relate to randomness with regards to what I already knew.

[pighead]

Gizmotron,
thanks for the contributions.
This is one of the best sections in VLS. I am reading every post in deep details..  


PH

[gizmotron]

See you all. I'm pretty sure that this section will be dropped when the new landlord shows up.

[gizmotron]

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