I have never had much luck with up as you win progressions, but same as everyone else, would like to capitalize on favourable fluctuations.
Whenever I employ a positive progression with short term results things invariably work against me.
I have been thinking perhaps I am trying to scale up the bets too quickly. After all, these fluctuations appear much more stable after a decent spin sample than they do from spin to spin.
So here is my idea for a positive bankroll progression.
Starting bank 1000 units. Bet 1 unit for 144 spins.
144 spins = 1st checkpoint.
Bank below starting balance = Bet 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 1)
Bank above starting balance but not doubled = Add 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 2)
Bank starting balance doubled (2000 & above) = Add 2 units until next checkpoint. (Betting 3)
288 spins = next checkpoint.
Bank below previous checkpoint balance = Bet 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 1)
Bank above previous checkpoint balance = Add 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 2, 3 or 4)
Bank above 3000 = Add 2 units until next checkpoint. (Betting 3, 4 or 5)
432 spins = next checkpoint.
Bank below previous checkpoint balance = Bet 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 1)
Bank above previous checkpoint balance = Add 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6)
Bank above 4000 = Add 2 units until next checkpoint. (Betting 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7)
576 spins = next checkpoint.
Bank below previous checkpoint balance = Bet 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 1)
Bank above previous checkpoint balance = Add 1 unit until next checkpoint. (Betting 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 )
Bank above 5000 = Add 2 units until next checkpoint. (Betting 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9)
And so on, with checkpoints every 144 spins. Always back to 1 unit bets whenever the balance drops below the previous checkpoint balance.
Any input/questions are welcome.
Cheers :drinks:
Hmmm... maybe a really tough dispersion would completely erode the profits if it came while betting say 8 or 9 units for 144 spins... perhaps it should only be betting either 1 or 2 units, and ignore the 1000 unit gain increments? I will have to test several combinations, I guess.
This is really interesting and IMO you do very well to take overall BR into account. :D
But the checkpoint seem awfully long. :-[
Try to shorten them. Especially if you are talking about EC. I mean, this MM (money management) can work also for splits or streets. In any case I consider your checkpoints to long. Favorable fluctuations rarely last that long. Try around 50 spins for each checkpoint. Maybe even less.