We like to say the wheel has 'no memory', and indeed, thats true. Mechanical systems that rely on triggers fail for that reason. They don't take into consideration that random is constantly changing. The only bet selection that works is one that has no memory, like the outcome itself. It doesn't rely on a rigid set of rules, but calls for a unique decision on every bet. When you bet this way, you're always in the 'long run', you're always where the wheel is in terms of the law of large numbers. There can be no 'evening out' of your winning percentage down the line, it remains constant. You're doing what the wheel does, starting over on every spin.
................. Spike, show us an example with numbers etc.....
Carlitos 8)
To do that I'd have to explain my whole method and I can't do that on a public forum.
Quote from: Spike on September 09, 2009, 01:54:20 AM
To do that I'd have to explain my whole method and I can't do that on a public forum.
Here you go...
With enough practice under your belt it becomes quite easy to play the EC's in this manner.
Sit at the table, decide to bet red or black or high or low or odd or even. Say you pick red, now continue to bet red until something happens, like, for instance your balls get itchy.
Give 'em a scratch, then bet something else, perhaps low, now continue to bet low until something happens, like, for instance your pencil lead snaps, or someone brushes against you.
Get a fresh pencil, or push someone away, then bet something else, perhaps black, now continue to bet black until something happens, like, for instance you cough or fart or sneeze.
Excuse yourself or congratulate yourself or wipe your nose on your sleeve, then bet something else....
The hard part is identifying the random bet switching signals from all the other real life noise you will encounter when in session. On busy nights you will be surprised how varied your bets become, just like random.
Practice, practice, practice!
Hey Spike, thanks for starting the thread.
We are always open to the new ones. Ken does open a thread on several forums to get as many points of view as possible.
And that's a good practice :)
QuoteWe like to say the wheel has 'no memory', and indeed, thats true.
...while the wheel has no memory, it certainly acts as if it actually does.
The casino actually relies on it "remembering" to take what it gave to the winners, with exact percentages, and they are backing it with their real money for it to remember to keep exact bookeeping of every % spun regarding every betting location.
They rely on it to equalize, to keep everything balanced in a close to perfect distribution as spins go by, otherwise it isn't behaving as expected...
A wheel that doesn't "remember" to equalize its values, is not doing its job right :)
The hard part is identifying the random bet switching signals>>>
There are no switching signals, thats the point. For every signal you think you see, the exact opposite will appear just as often.
>>Say you pick red, now continue to bet red until something happens, like, for instance your balls get itchy. >>
Its slightly more complicted than that.
They rely on it to equalize, to keep everything balanced>>>
Victor, do you really see exploitable short term equalization in roulette? Long term yes, not short term.
Quote from: Spike on September 09, 2009, 01:03:11 AM
We like to say the wheel has 'no memory', and indeed, thats true. Mechanical systems that rely on triggers fail for that reason. They don't take into consideration that random is constantly changing. The only bet selection that works is one that has no memory, like the outcome itself. It doesn't rely on a rigid set of rules, but calls for a unique decision on every bet. When you bet this way, you're always in the 'long run', you're always where the wheel is in terms of the law of large numbers. There can be no 'evening out' of your winning percentage down the line, it remains constant. You're doing what the wheel does, starting over on every spin.
Nice.
This also applies to VB, as an advantage play method.
The predictions are done on a spin to spin basis. Each time you forget about the last outcome and start all over again, basing your prediction on what is observed at the current spin.
basing your prediction on what is observed at the current spin.>>>
If you're always where the wheel is at, you're always betting in the present. With a mechanical system, it will go to sleep periodically and make you suffer drawdowns that can be painful to recover from.
Yes. That's exactly what will happen if using a mechanical system.
With something like VB, you're watching the ball for a few seconds right after it's been spun, and making certain calculations based on what is happening in that current spin then quickly placing a bet.
Your prediction is based on the study of the physical behavior of the ball + tilted wheel device, besides many hours of practice of course. (more advanced players even consider other conditions such as biometric pressure in the environment at the current time of play, and the way it influences the behavior of the ball within the wheel's ball track, in order to better understand what's going on and adapt their play to it).
Quote from: Spike on September 09, 2009, 03:29:19 AM
Victor, do you really see exploitable short term equalization in roulette?
I have learned -the hard way- in the short term it is better to go with the imbalance/trend than against it.
You mean betting the trend is better than bucking the trend? Sometimes, is a very limited way.
Yes Spike that is a nice thought, following the wheel. I just fail to see at this stage exactly how to follow the wheel if we are not suppose to look at past spins because every spin is a event on it's own and has no memory. Then again what is a trend? We can say red is trending so we bet red. But then it can change over to black and without notice just chop. Are you actually looking at past spins to determine patterns? How else would you do it?
Also what is mechanical? Mechanical is having a set of rules right? And following those rules. Let's say i say ok I would bet for repeats on Odds and Evens. So if Odd is spun I bet Odd and Even is spuns I bet Even. That is mechanical right? So even though I'm thinking I'm following the wheel, really I'm not. Cause I'm just following the last result. I cannot say wait for a colour to streak, then wait for a chop the first double of the other colour bet for it to trend cause the same colour before the chop can return. So really speaking, I just don't see how it can be done. I would assume that combinations of all the EC's should be the answer. What that answer is i don't know. Anyhow, just as annoying as you can be at times.......actually even more than that am I intrigued. ;D
P.S. If i send a two-man canoe (one seat for the cheap labour guy to row, and one for you) would you come over here to South Africa and double my 1 000 000 Zimbabwean Dollars? I will even supply the food for the 4 month journy (one way) Mielie pap!
Cheers
Jakk
Quote from: Spike on September 09, 2009, 01:54:20 AM
To do that I'd have to explain my whole method and I can't do that on a public forum.
if you cant do it on public send me a pm message im realy curious i just last couple weeks specializing for even chances just r b o e nothing more and actualy i have good results enough if the colours and odds orr evens go in series , but if they break for small non readable random part of game then this is davastating for bankrol
I am also currently working on EC's what sort of progression do you guys recommend? WHAAAT??? no progression i talk about my self but other players maybe not will agree
Quote from: manhole-muncher on September 09, 2009, 09:14:35 AM
I am also currently working on EC's what sort of progression do you guys recommend?
Simply no one, until you can win consistently using flat betting.
I see the logic in what you suggest Spike. I guess it all comes down to the decision. (as you said) How does one make that decision though? I guess that you could think of random as an ever changing road. Red/Black, Even/Odd, High/Low could be seen as turning left and right. It sounds like you have built a road map by studying for hours each day. I suppose that "staying with the wheel" is an easy concept in principle, but difficult to apply.
I think that Gizmotron's method of tracking has high value here. With his tracking method, you can see chops, streaks, and patterns at a glance. On GG you once said that the past spins do provide clues as to which direction you MIGHT go in (a clue but not a trigger). Do you think that there is anything else that you can tell us about building an understanding of random? (without giving away your method of course.)
Perhaps some sort of clustering analysis is in order?
Thanks Spike.
Spike said that this method is in the "same ballpark" as what he does.
nolinks://nolinks.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=2201&forum=Roulette_Archive_2005 (nolinks://nolinks.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=2201&forum=Roulette_Archive_2005)
Perhaps if we boil this strategy down and eliminate the triggers, we could learn something.......
Do you think that there is anything else that you can tell us about building an understanding of random? >>>
You have to study the random outcomes in regards to your system. The problem is, if you have a crap system, this will be fruitless. You have find an 'in', something that breaks even a lot and wins sometimes. Study it and the random to improve it. Its very time consuming and takes a long time, but anything worthwhile always does.
the "same ballpark">>
That was 3 1/2 years ago and I don't see it that way now. You can look at it, but take what I said then with a grain of salt.
Simply no one, until you can win consistently using flat betting.>>
And even then a losing streak of 6-7 in a row can get you in trouble. Why climb into a hole when it can be avoided by just raising your flat bet.
Quote from: Spike on September 10, 2009, 04:03:56 AM
Why climb into a hole when it can be avoided by just raising your flat bet.
Isn't "raising your flat bet" a progression?
Isn't "raising your flat bet" a progression?>>>
I'm saying if your not happy with your flat bet per session wins, in the next session raise it. Its not a progression if the bet stays the same for the whole session.
If you're in a session and bet 5 times and then raise the bet, yes, its a progression. Keeping the bet the same for the whole session is what flat betting is about.
Quote from: Spike on September 10, 2009, 05:34:07 AM
Isn't "raising your flat bet" a progression?>>>
I'm saying if your not happy with your flat bet per session wins, in the next session raise it. Its not a progression if the bet stays the same for the whole session.
If you're in a session and bet 5 times and then raise the bet, yes, its a progression. Keeping the bet the same for the whole session is what flat betting is about.
Sounds like a progression to me...
Bets transcend session end points. The break between sessions is an illusion.
It's like a never ending river, it doesn't matter where you jump in and where you jump out, you will get just as wet.
Bee...it's only a progression if you increase bets to make up for losses.
So. If I decide in the middle of a session I am not happy with my profit at any stage and I increase my bet to now bet, let us say 5 units instead of 1 unit, for the remainder of the session, that does not mean I'm using progression. I simply upped my bet because I wanted more out of the session. Progression would be a steady increase of bets to make up for any losses incurred along the way. To me it is pretty clear......
Jakk
If there is an edge, advantage or should I say positive expectation there is no need to flat betting with higher base bet oor is it?
It is simple because if you want to overcome the hose edge you can't apply that kind of staking plan using Masse Égale or can you?
Well you can use an higher base bet (lets say 10 Euro units and you base bet is 7 units, 70 Euro).
The there is an La Partage rule so you only lose half the even money bet if zero strike.
Then the minimum bet for one straight up number is 2 Euro.
Here you put the difference on zero to get an positive gain if zero strikes or make it an even %.
Then there is an issue for how many attemps an attack is "3 5 7 9 and so on".
But I have an open mind so if some one use an higher base bet then I would like to know how some one does handle the zero tax.
The common or should I say the traditional way is to ignore zero as it does not exist and just repeat you last bet, decision.
Then the above depends on other things like how you use Masse Égale.
Do one aim to gain +1 once then lower the base bet.
Could be 7 3 1 so if you lose aftar +1 you still have an positive gain and with a good session you would end up with +11.
The other way using Masse Ègale you would maybe aim to get +1 and fail and higher you base bet to gain +1 again or aim for an higher expectaion that +1 because you hit an draw-down depending on how many attacks you apply.
There is many different ways to use Masse Égale as an staking plan.
Cheers LS
"Isn't "raising your flat bet" a progression?" >>> This is another issue in regards to definitions. Ken
I would define a progression as a systematic/mechanical raise or decrease of bets during a session.
Therefore changing your base-unit value from session to session systematically (for instance: making sure your base-bet value is 1% of new BR) to me is not a progression but a money management plan.
Altering the base-bet amount from session to session non-systematically is neither a progression nor a MM plan.
If the wheel has no memory, which it doesn't, and playing with that and random in mind means we are always in the "long run", etc, then why should a short break between sessions make even the slightest bit of difference when deciding how much you are going to bet?
Here is a scenario...
Player 1 sits down to play a marathon roulette session of 1000 spins and elects to place 1 unit on each betting opportunity.
Player 2 treats himself to a special trip to the casino each birthday and plays 100 spins; he does so for 10 years, total 1000 spins. He also decides to chop and change his bet amounts depending how well or how poorly he did last time.
What possible justification does player 2 have in varying his bets, and why should player 1 feel obliged to persist with the flat bet, when they are both playing 1000 spins on a game that has absolutely no memory?
What possible justification does player 2 have in varying his bets>>
There isn't any, bet every spin or every 10th spin, it makes no difference at all.
Quote from: Spike on September 11, 2009, 11:15:28 PM
What possible justification does player 2 have in varying his bets>>
There isn't any, bet every spin or every 10th spin, it makes no difference at all.
Well it depends on your take on the game of roulette.
There is more than 1 way to beat it.
Cheers
D
SPIKE DO USE ANY KIND OF PROGRESSION ON YOUR BETTING .
Quote from: Spike on September 11, 2009, 11:15:28 PM
What possible justification does player 2 have in varying his bets>>
There isn't any, bet every spin or every 10th spin, it makes no difference at all.
I meant, what possible justification does player 2 have in varying the amount he bets from session to session?
There is more than 1 way to beat it.>>
But waiting out spins makes no difference because there is no rhyme or reason to random outcomes. It just saves you from betting if you have a loser system, so people think its a goo thing.
And no, I never use progressions. If you can win flat betting, they're a waste of time.
Quote from: Spike on September 12, 2009, 12:36:32 AM
But waiting out spins makes no difference because there is no rhyme or reason to random outcomes.
Then you 'method' that you wont post, is pointless too if there is no reason for random outcomes :)
Or because you have a winning methodology you believe that yours is the only way?
Which is it?
Cheers
D
Which is it?>>>
I don't understand the question, please ask in a different way.
Quote from: bombus on September 12, 2009, 12:16:47 AM
I meant, what possible justification does player 2 have in varying the amount he bets from session to session?
You'll not get any reasonable answer.
Quote from: mistarlupo on September 12, 2009, 04:32:01 AM
You'll not get any reasonable answer.
Perhaps you're right mistarlupo. It's a shame though, because it is a very valid question.
Quote from: Spike on September 09, 2009, 01:03:11 AM
The only bet selection that works is one that has no memory, like the outcome itself. It doesn't rely on a rigid set of rules, but calls for a unique decision on every bet. When you bet this way, you're always in the 'long run', you're always where the wheel is in terms of the law of large numbers. There can be no 'evening out' of your winning percentage down the line, it remains constant. You're doing what the wheel does, starting over on every spin.
This is why I put up the 2 player scenario.
No memory, unique decisions, always in the law of large numbers, no evening out, remains constant, starting over every spin.
All these points would suggest that there is completely no difference between how the two players fulfill their 1000 spin sample. The belief that player two can decide to raise and lower the stake at each 100 spin interval simply because he takes a break runs contrary to all the above conditions of the game. I say he is in fact using a scaled progression... up a unit, down a unit, etc.
The dilemma here is whether we should call the variable unit size a progression or money management plan.
I prefer the first one but it depends on the situation & it depends on how you define the above two terms.
Regards,
/
Quote from: Spike on September 12, 2009, 03:35:45 AM
Which is it?>>>
I don't understand the question, please ask in a different way.
LOL, so you don't understand simple English,
I thought they speak English in America.
Then you 'method' that you wont post, is pointless too if there is no reason for random outcomes >>>
I didn't say there is no reason for random, I said there is no rhyme or reason TO random, meaning the outcomes follow no reasonable course.
>>Or because you have a winning methodology you believe that yours is the only way?>>
Roulette can be beaten by bias wheel plat or VB, so I hardly have to only way.
why should player 1 feel obliged to persist with the flat bet>>>
Flat betting is the least volatile way to play. You are always risking the same amount on every bet, and if you win more than you lose, you will always come out ahead. A progresion can always get into trouble no matter what your method of play, its never worth the risk.
The wheel has no memory, but I believe it has "taqwa" (an inexplicable ability to do exaclty what is needed to perform its job). A bit like a consciense.
It's like this, Spike.
You know kind of how to read it (random) and the wheel knows exactly how to write it.
Well put, Bombus.
The more time you spend dealing with the stochastic process, the more you realize the presence of such a inexplicable "conscience".
How to read it well enough to exploit it is the question.
How to read it well enough to exploit it is the question.>>
Just takes time and practice.
Spike you Know - flat bet works.
The best even chance is left or right of the Zero. Each side consist of Black Red Odd Even High Low. Easy to play.
If you look at the wheel with Zero at 12 '0 clock the left side from Zero that's from 26 to 5 is all the red low numbers and the black high numbers. The righthandside from 32 down to 10 is all the Red high numbers and Black low numbers.
To play left side of Zero places 9 chips on all the low red numbers on table and 9 chips on all the black high numbers. You don't even need to think of the numbers just colour and if its high or low. Now this is an even chance all group together on one side of the wheel. easy to spot. Play is 18 chips payout 35-17 = 18 nice?
PS Jakkalsdraai los die pap en wors speel die wiel. Dealers ken nie die een nie.
The dealers they worry, because if you play tiers they know where you going the same with Neighbours to zero. but with this one they can't see what you playing.
Thanks Twocando
Twocando, isn't any group of 18 numbers an EC? What makes exactly these groups to the left & right from 0 different?
;D Hallo Twocando. Vanwaar is jy?
Wanneer ek by die casino is speel ek die wiel. min 3 nommers max 9. Ek is eintlik van die Kaap so pap en wors is nie te algemeen nie, maar my Vrystaatse vrou laat darem vir my, my pap-en-wors dosis kry! :good: Lekker om jou hier te he. Ander SA lede is, Ronjo, MXkid, Vetkop, Babs, Max en nog 'n paar. Welkom!
Jakk
Yes any 18 numbers are an even chance. To split the wheel from Zero down to, between 5 & 10, you have 18 numbers on each side of the wheel. with the colour and size of the number its easy to play on the table. any other group of numbers will be difficult to memorise. for this you need to know if you want to play left of Zero all the numbers on that side is red low and black high. The neighbours to 9, which is red and low is black and high. To read the last numbers on score card you will learn to read numbers and if it was left or right. Easy to spot trend if dealer spins to one side of wheel. I say again the dealers, in South Africa, do not know this play. they know call bets placings. Lets say you play EC's RED & HIGH. look at the wheel money back if number end on left side of Zero - on the right side black numbers will make you lose and the Red on right double win. Not all the even chance are even spread on the wheel. Just this one and Black / Red. Look at the Odd / Even numbers on left they are pairs 35. 3 /12. 28 / 7. 29 / 18. 22 / etc. on the right this spread is chanced - not any more an even chance bet for me. The layout of the wheel got a lot of secrets. I'm going to post something on this. One of these will be about the number 40 all the numbers on the wheel calculate to 40 in groups and 12 of them are pairs on the wheel.
Thanks
Jakk ek is in die Vrystaat BFN. Dit is lekker om te hoor, Sal graag meer wil praat oor roulette. Dink ek het die HG, maak die casino mal. Ek gebruik verskillende taktiek om hulle te jaag, die bal kan net twee plekke val - links of regs van die nommer. Sal meer oor die vir jou stuur.
Twocando
;) Hi maat kyk by jou PM's
Jakk
Thank you for the clarification.
What do you expect from any system to be a holy grail. Or are you just looking for a system to improve your way of gambling / playing? Go to a table, land casino, look at the marquee. if you can predict the next 3 sectors the ball will go you do not need the HG, if not learn and practice the play.
Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf. I'm glad to see that you also understand Afrikaans, I said, I think ( ek dink) I did not state I've got it. Even if my way of playing makes me win every time doesn't make it the HG. The HG is not an item to posses, its a way of thinking and playing the roulette.
If you get a good system, will you believe it to be true or are you going to test it till it lose. I rather use the info to improve my own way of playing. Please do not look for a quick fix because you might not believe it to be true. Let's stay at the topic No Memory Betting. The wheel has no memory or attitude or any idea of your numbers you like. If your numbers doesn't come up its not the wheel you'v got s**t numbers.
:diablo:
Hi!
Ek is polish, maar ek spraat africaans;)
Ek hoop, ek gaan aan SA volgende jaar. Ek weet nie as my africaans is goed genoeg nie.
Sorry guys, I'm still a beginner in writing;)
All the best.
Happy winning:)
;D Very impressive trylobit! When you do visit and you are in our areas feel free to drop in!
Waar het jy afrikaans geleer ou maat?
Hey Manhole, you understand Afrikaans as well or you translate it? Anyhow. What Two has told u s a fact. There are a couple of guys here who win in the long term. I'm convinced though that even if they gave you step by step instructions how to play their way it still won't be your HG. Simply because all these methods have a human element. I suppose these guys develop a system or method to their liking and personality which eally speaking might not suit any of us. Just my thoughts.
:D
Cheers Jakk
nobody has the perfect method as it probably doesn't exist.>>
What would a perfect method look like?
;D What does a murderer looks like?
If you could watch me play, you would say all I'm doing is 'grinding'. Bet every spin, win 2 lose 2, win 3 lose 1, win 2 lose 1, WLWLWL, WWW. Very boring but at the end of 50 bets, I'll be ahead and at the end of the next 50 I'll be ahead even more. Is that perfect?
Most people would say a perfect method is you make a big bet, win, make another big bet, win, and leave. And of course you have to do it with a drink in your hand and beautiful girl at your side.
Quote from: Spike on September 17, 2009, 05:58:46 PM
If you could watch me play, you would say all I'm doing is 'grinding'. Bet every spin, win 2 lose 2, win 3 lose 1, win 2 lose 1, WLWLWL, WWW. Very boring but at the end of 50 bets, I'll be ahead and at the end of the next 50 I'll be ahead even more. Is that perfect?
Most people would say a perfect method is you make a big bet, win, make another big bet, win, and leave. And of course you have to do it with a drink in your hand and beautiful girl at your side.
I agree with you.
Scenario that a pro comes to the table with £100 and leave with £10 000 is fallacy.
The real pro is a consistent winner, which most of the time means, sure but slow grinding...
comes to the table with £100 and leave with £10 000 is fallacy.>>>
People believe that because they don't understand the games they play. The casino makes all their money grinding, how could it possibly be any different for you. BJ players grind, poker players grind, everybody grinds. Only fools who watch too many James Bond movies think differently. Look at the one last year where he plays poker. In the last round, every single player had a huge hand; 4 of a kind, full house, straight flush, etc, it was stupid. You could play for 10,000 years and never see that happen.