The easiest way to come out ahead is by taking the PROPER bankroll to the casino. Example: For a $ 5 minimum table a the proper bankroll is $ 600.00 , divided into 3 equal session amounts of $ 200.00
WIN GOAL : EACH session 15 % times 3 = $ 90.00. It`s a BREEZE and NO SWEAT. Expect more then you deserve the consequences.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
BTW. You won`t be able to tell tall stories but you are a winner.
Thanks for your post dear ND.
QuoteYou won`t be able to tell tall stories but you are a winner.
Does anything else matter? :)
Well ND I don't agree.
I will make a post about it soon.
LS
im agree that with 600 you can make easily 20 percent but not everytime loooooooool
I disagree too.
First of all, if by "coming out ahead" you mean win consistently, then there is no money/bankroll management that can make you win because your bet selection is what makes you win or lose. The bet selection is the money generator not the size of the bankroll etc. You can take the largest bankroll with you, but if your bet selection is a long term loser, you'll still lose in the long run.
Second, assuming you have a winning bet selection i.e. a bet selection with a long term positive edge, the proper bankroll required is determined mathematically using the edge, after determining your risk of ruin. The bankroll must therefore allow you to overcome standard deviation, otherwise you'd be at risk of losing your capital in case you hit a bad negative fluctuation.
Yes Marven that is correct.
I agree.
LS
Just to cut it short: THE BET SELECTION IS IN PLACE . It is a darn good one. No worry about DEVIATION or stuff like that. We either WIN or LOSE with our excellent system but we do not intend to OUTSMART the table and proclaim to be a winner every time we go to a casino.
Lucky, You have nothing to discuss. I did not give you a system to " TEST". Just use your own what you think is a good perfect system. I don`t give a rat`s tail about your bet selection. In addtion I did not even go into depth regarding MM>
Nothing is left for discussion .This was just a general statement on my part to be considered.
Marven , Your thinking does NOT even affect my way of playing. There is no niche for this kind of thinking. I do not pay any attention to your gibberish like money generator, longterm loser,,deviation, negative expectation.
Save those semantics for another group but not for a guy who is frequenting the casinos roulette table since 19 81. Let me also point out that my bankroll is NEVER in jeopardy at all.. Nuff said. Something to think about.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
P.S. I mentioned 15 % NOT 20%.
Hi Lads
Nathon,,,,,,,,can you explain more
seems a little vague to me what your point is
hence the responce you got
ok ,,,,,you give em what for ,,,,,,,,mmmmmmmmm 15 % to me is also so a bit high ,,,,,,,,,,way high
ok but im sure youll clear this up :pleasantry:
BB
ps JUST,,,,,,,,I dont want your advice making followers of this forum into losers,,,,,,,,
for what you say your BR IS WAY TO LOW ,,,,,,and will land players quikly into debt,,,,,,,,,
cant understand why you posted that ,,,,,,,ok maybe you can back it up somehow ,,,,,,,,
but i doudt it
ok all the best
BB
BB .
You don`t know what you are talking about . This banlroll, PER session , has bee proven to be sufficient for a table mnimum as I have stated above. Isn`t $ 30 or 15 % enough per session ? If you want to win only 5 % that would even be better. It would be considered a super intelligent choice.
Nathan Detroit.
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
ND this is for beginners and less experience players that would like to have some fun.
That is that and there is no point to argue about it.
The hard cruel truth is that if you can't gain an Estat at 2.5 or above with placed bets you have nothing.
No beginners patterns, because they don't exist and have nothing to do with how the random flow unfold.
Then there is no MM that will save you is just another illusion among many.
All you have is isolated singles and series of singles and regular series with different lenght.
The only thing any one can apply is an Value, Variance, Math, Probability and Statistics.
If you want to try to help you can show some-thing with an higher level of understanding to how to grasp the concept.
If you don't know how to gain an slight positive expectaion then it is down hill.
Cheers LS
What I have posted is a sound take on a win goal with NO particular system in mind. Apparently " tunnel vision" seem to be prevalent.
I don`t bother with long winded gibberish which apparently is in abundance on some message boards. It`s common sense that`s lacking.
******Theory of gambling is .......
Money Management ......Discipline......Trends.......LOSS LIMITS .....Win Goals......and each of those attributes is wrapped around LOGIC.........a LOGICAL way to gamble and a LOGICAL manner in which to make decisions at the tables......****John Patrick.
I don`t think you have ever been to a casino in years if ever.
Nathan Detroit
IHAPPY WINNINGS!!!
My point stand above you no need to add more about it.
Some will never learn even if they spend an life time at there local casino.
It is sad.
LS
It is sad for YOU not to be able to engage in more cerebral gymastics but my post was never intented to be as such. It`s a proclamation for COMMON SENSE!!!
Many roads lead to ROME . It`s for each one of us to decide which one to chose.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
QuoteThe easiest way to come out ahead is by taking the PROPER bankroll to the casino. Example: For a $ 5 minimum table a the proper bankroll is $ 600.00 , divided into 3 equal session amounts of $ 200.00
WIN GOAL : EACH session 15 % times 3 = $ 90.00. It`s a BREEZE and NO SWEAT. Expect more then you deserve the consequences.
This is not common sense for me and you can call me any-thing you like or claim what ever you want about me.
The truth is cruel and the same goes for the gambling world.
I still stand behind my statments.
If some one does not have Masse Égale and an positive expectation then all the other stuff any one can make up is just an illusion.
Bankroll, progression and win ratio.
Down hill is the only way if you apply it.
For fun action players this could be some-thing to apply.
LS
Dear LS,
I think you are very autocratic in your statements:
"If some one does not have Masse Égale and an positive expectation then all the other stuff any one can make up is just an illusion.
Bankroll, progression and win ratio.
Down hill is the only way if you apply it."
Basically what ou are saying is that's all about bet selection.
I disagree.
Read some of Manrique if you haven't. Or you can ask Victor.
You canot deny the fact that a progression (positive or negative) can give you profits in sessions that a flat bet would give you losses. Progressions are tools. They are not everything, but if used properly, they can help. It's an uneven battle against roulette, and every little tool should be used.
Can I ask this (along the same lines as this topic). With a $2,800 BR, what is a 'good' profit to take home? Ken
QuoteYou canot deny the fact that a progression (positive or negative) can give you profits in sessions that a flat bet would give you losses. Progressions are tools. They are not everything, but if used properly, they can help. It's an uneven battle against roulette, and every little tool should be used.
Kav I know members here that can win 100 sessions and above in one year.
I also know that there is so many members here who think they are home free if they apply this kind of stuff.
Why can't I have opinions?
I am not here to get enemys but I still think this is for fun actions players, what is wrong about that?
LS
Nothing wrong. I appreciate your opinions.
Ken,
Instead of giving you a point blank answer and knowing your method of play might disqualify me for giving you a solid reply to your question . Therefore , what is usually the average amount of your bets ?
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
I take an $1800 bankroll to play $5.00 chips, win goal 14% on turnover.
Quote from: Mr J on September 15, 2009, 06:16:47 PM
Can I ask this (along the same lines as this topic). With a $2,800 BR, what is a 'good' profit to take home? Ken
I'd say between $500-$600.
@Nate >> Starting out at $10 mins. and working my way up the progresssion. The average? Thats tough, around $40. Ken
Ken,
Your bankroll of $ 2, 800.-- is very much in line with your guess of an average bet of $ 40 . Your Win Goal , but NOT Win Limit , should be 10% or about $ 280.00. This is the amount you guarantee yourself and keep on playing with the EXCESS until the FIRST loss.
The more money you bring to the table the lower the percentage of your win goal. Then life is a breeze.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 15, 2009, 07:32:58 PM
Ken,
Your bankroll of $ 2, 800.-- is very much in line with your guess of an average bet of $ 40 . Your Win Goal , but NOT Win Limit , should be 10% or about $ 280.00. This is the amount you guarantee yourself and keep on playing with the EXCESS until the FIRST loss.
The more money you bring to the table the lower the percentage of your win goal. Then life is a breeze.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Can you explain the difference between Win Goal and Win Limit.
Let's say my win goal is $100. And I have a win of $140. Do you say I color up my buy in and my $100 win and put that in my pocket never to be touched and keep playing with the $40 until the first loss?
I'm a conservative type so I look for a nice even ten percent net profit at the bac table, per day. For me that is 4 units and most of us find ourselves up 4 units at sometime during our play, no?
BTW, I play a rather high unit value and only bet about 35% of hands during a shoe. Too many people don't have the ability to conquer themselves so they will never be able to play to make a party or fulltime income.
Curious,
Win limit means you don`t get up once your win goal has been reached . You rat hole the original pile and continue as explained which you have understood by giving your example. However since the results at this particular table are in you favor you remain there until the first loss.
Just as a reminder I do divide my total bankroll into 3 equal sessions as I have stated in my first post.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
@Stavros,
Great discipline and realistic win goal. Congratulations. This keeps you in the winners circle!!
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Thanks Nate Dogg & Bombus. Ken
I thought of something else. lol Does TIME SPENT at the casino factor in at all (opinion of course) with your dollar amounts? Ken
Is the loss limit = Bank roll?
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 15, 2009, 01:48:59 PM
Marven , Your thinking does NOT even affect my way of playing. There is no niche for this kind of thinking.
Who said anything about your way of playing? Or are you just saying "Worship my approach or shut up"?
(so much for professionalism...)
This is entirely objective. I'm only stating facts that aren't directed at your person but the very proposition of this thread. Let people see all angles and decide for themselves according to what they do and don't understand.
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 15, 2009, 01:48:59 PM
I do not pay any attention to your gibberish like money generator, longterm loser,,deviation, negative expectation.
As opposed to your approach, the one I referred to is exact science which will remain true whether or not gamblers chose to accept it.
This isn't from some nonsense gambling book that promotes so called "discipline" and "money management" as the ways to win on each trip to the casino.
This is a proven scientific approach used by well informed/experienced professional traders and advantage players.
You either have an edge, or you don't.
If you do, then you can simply use math-based tools to make the most out of your edge.
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 06:10:52 PM
Basically what ou are saying is that's all about bet selection.
I disagree.
Read some of Manrique if you haven't. Or you can ask Victor.
Hi Kav.
Well, if bet selection means "what and when to bet", then yes, that's all there is to gambling and investment in general. It's all about bet selection, what else?
Anything else (e.g. money management, exit points, discipline, etc) are complementary tools aiming at maintaining profit and minimizing risk.
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 06:10:52 PM
You canot deny the fact that a progression (positive or negative) can give you profits in sessions that a flat bet would give you losses.
Nor can you deny that there are sessions where you hit a bad run that kills your progression, but eventually your (positive) edge manifests itself and, using flat betting, you recover and end your session with a +2 units profit.
If you study and test all the angles regarding progressions, you'll find out that they aren't really worth it. Except for when, for example, using a Kelly progression with a proper bankroll (calculated based on your method's constant edge).
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 06:10:52 PM
Progressions are tools. They are not everything, but if used properly, they can help. It's an uneven battle against roulette, and every little tool should be used.
Agreed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
****** I thought of something else. lol Does TIME SPENT at the casino factor in at all (opinion of course) with your dollar amounts? Ken*******
Time is NOT the factor. When you have reached your desired win level or your loss limit ( 25 % of bankroll ) then it`s time to leave the casino or be disciplined enough leaving the tables alone.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINHS!!!
@ Bazeegar L
****Is the loss limit = Bank roll? *** No the bankroll is not your loss limit. . You establish a loss limit of about 25 % . This way you will never get wiped out . You will always leave the casino with money , The next trip might be more profitable.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Basically what you are saying is that's all about bet selection.>>
Thats all there is, bet selection. Anything else is an illusion. Bet selection is the god of roulette. But most people never get good bet selection, so they convince themselves that only progressions can make you money. Thats why the casinos are booming, all progressions ultimately fail. Nothing can overcome a negative expectation game except bet selection.
Having an adequate bankroll is certainly important but it's only part of the package. Victor tried to make $50 per session with a $2000 bank (2.5%) and admitted it didn't work. It certainly sounds plausible that you could make say 5% each and every session, but it's a dangerous way to think if that's the only weapon you have in your arsenal, especially if you're committed to risking the whole bank in order to get that 5%. Think about it like this: if you have $100 and your target $5, and at some point you are down to $75 (maybe because you're using some kind of progression), then you now need to make 33% of your current bank just to break even. :punish:
I agree with Spike. Bet selection is everything.
One question to you though Spike. In one post you mentioned that you bet every spin sand that if one plays a system if you wait for triggers to bet you will just prolong the suffering of losing. So effectively what you are saying is that triggers in whatever form is not a good idea. Fair enough.
You also have said in another post that one must understand one's own system or method and know when to bet. Like that example you gave of the chap in your local casino that bet only on Doz.2 and 3. Never betting Doz.1 While Doz's 2&3 were trending he only placed like 4 bets or something. Then when Doz. 1 was trending he was betting 2 and 3 the whole time, losing a fortune.
So the two above scenarios are really opposite from each other. So which is it?
Personally I think that "knowing when to bet" is the way to go. In other words waiting for a trigger, or sequnce of triggers indicating that your own way or system is coming up to play.
Victor has a friend on a Spanish forum as I recall that showd Vic how to take a losing system (or bet selection) and win with it. How? Well obviously waiting and sitting out the bad times and getting in on the good times.
I know you say you bet everyspin.
tried to make $50 per session with a $2000 bank>>
With the proper bet selection you can make 50 every time with a 100 BR. I'm not kidding.
Like that example you gave of the chap in your local casino that bet only on Doz.2 and 3. Never betting Doz.1 While Doz's 2&3 were trending he only placed like 4 bets or something. Then when Doz. 1 was trending he was betting 2 and 3 the whole time, losing a fortune.>>>
You're right, that was a trigger. The guy should have seen the 1st dozen sleeping. I don't bet that way, please don't assume I do because of an example I gave. I mentioned it because it was a lame way to play, and the guy couldn't even see the obvious. It was an example of an idiot player, not an example of how I play.
Ok Nate, thanks for your opinion. Ken
Spike ,
This cat playing column 2 and 3 should have gotten up after 3 losses in a row. Especially true in this particular case.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 16, 2009, 07:29:21 AM
Spike ,
This cat playing column 2 and 3 should have gotten up after 3 losses in a row. Especially true in this particular case.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Or maybe switch to column 1?
Curious,
All indications are that this cat for obvious reasons preferred the 2nd and 3 rd column and stuck to his plans.. That much I grant him. Had he switched to the First column then this would have been an entirely different method of play which was not his intention to do. He should have had an escape plan worked out in advance.
Follow the columns is an entirely different MO and in a league by itself.
If you would take a look at the 0/00 wheel you will find a large gap by having omitted the 3rd column by switching to the 1st and 2nd column.Just to be brief about it.
Maybe some of the VLS board column experts could give you more details.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!
This might be off topic but I thought to give you my take .
It's easy to pretend you are the smart guy if you know the outcome beforehand.
If for example there were a series of 10 Blacks it's easy to say you would have bet the trend on black and whoever bet Red is a fool.
Yet, that series of Blacks has exactly the same chance to end at any given spin as it has to continue. So betting on Red is equally "smart" as betting on Black.
All this pattern recognition stuff is just empty bragging. Anyone who knows probability can tell you that any outcome is equally probable after any pattern.
"It's easy to pretend you are the smart guy if you know the outcome beforehand.
If for example there were a series of 10 Blacks it's easy to say you would have bet the trend on black and whoever bet Red is a fool." >>> Yep, I brought that up already. Ken
If I see 10 Blacks in a row I keep my bets off black because the odds of repeating are no longer in my favor. Only bet when it`s to your adantage . Don`t go with the lemmings.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!