Hi VLS,
I have a maths question for you all to answer...
Here it goes...
random draw 8 numbers = 1 set
a repeat of any number within a set = win
no repeat of any number within a set = lose
What is the percentage of winning?
What is the probability of winning?
If not mistaken the answer is slightly more than 50%
In order words, taking random 8 numbers, you have slightly more than 50% to have at least one repeating number
Example: (taken from Actuals / Permanences ยป Some DublinBet actuals from last year ( no dealer names ) - Jeromin)
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/some-dublinbet-actuals-from-last-year-(-no-dealer-names-)/
Set 1 27 2 23 0 17 1 23 4 win
Set 2 29 27 24 24 9 12 26 26 win
Set 3 4 14 0 30 33 27 12 30 win
Set 4 5 0 3 14 13 10 6 4 lose
Set 5 24 19 16 20 15 1 15 19 win
Set 6 1 11 33 26 34 9 2 8 lose
Set 7 1 28 2 18 34 8 14 28 win
Set 8 16 23 14 14 20 1 6 7 win
Set 9 15 30 11 2 24 18 26 6 lose
Set 10 9 25 18 13 10 0 9 30 win
The above example, winning percentage is more than 50% ( 7 win vs 3 lose = 70%)
This is "short term".
What about long term?
Any math expert here can provide the answer?
or any programmer can programme to check?
Remember is ANY repeat of the 8 numbers.
Feedbacks and comments are welcome! :thumbsup:
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Hi Guys,
This is from session 2
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/some-dublinbet-actuals-from-last-year-(-no-dealer-names-)/
Set 1 35 19 5 8 9 27 18 11 lose
Set 2 31 7 20 4 27 26 33 1 lose
Set 3 6 16 26 29 0 2 35 35 win
Set 4 10 36 6 23 8 32 6 25 lose
Set 5 0 0 27 illegible 1 or 7 26 33 22 29 win
Set 6 13 17 18 3 26 36 32 35 lose
Set 7 8 34 16 16 3 17 11 36 win
Set 8 13 31 7 23 9 25 20 17 lose
Set 9 22 15 15 7 9 19 24 23 win
Set 10 12 2 15 27 20 25 34 21 lose
6 lose vs 4 win = 40%
Session 3 :
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/some-dublinbet-actuals-from-last-year-(-no-dealer-names-)/
Set 1 0 31 32 14 4 13 28 30 lose
Set 2 32 8 24 4 1 15 32 1 win
Set 3 16 5 14 21 27 10 31 29 lose
Set 4 1 11 23 17 10 11 34 1 win
Set 5 19 21 1 13 9 18 8 10 lose
Set 6 21 22 30 36 11 24 18 28 lose
Set 7 20 35 12 26 6 5 35 36 win
Set 8 2 14 35 22 35 10 33 win
4 lose vs 4 win = 50%
Session 4:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/some-dublinbet-actuals-from-last-year-(-no-dealer-names-)/
Set 1 3 29 13 3 31 26 33 8 win
Set 2 10 10 16 16 12 0 11 2 win
Set 3 10 20 11 24 20 1 24 9 win
Set 4 20 2 4 24 16 10 8 23 lose
Set 5 26 2 lose
Session 4 is very short, not enough number for Set 5, just consider it a lost.
We still have 3 wins vs 2 loses = 60%
Example from another thread:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/william-hill-wheel/
Set 1 18 8 22 7 2 5 19 2 win
Set 2 11 6 33 3 19 1 17 25 lose
Set 3 34 35 10 6 2 2 11 23 win
Set 4 15 22 26 4 30 6 31 5 lose
Set 5 31 12 15 28 28 8 30 16 win
Set 6 22 13 19 29 4 9 33 12 lose
Set 7 31 23 lose
50 numbers...
4 loses vs 3 wins = 42%
Set 7 not enough numbers, consider lose..
Another example from numbers posted by Mr J
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/my-actuals-00-wheel-i-think-from-may-1st/
Set1 4 2 1 22 22 15 33 26 win
Set2 19 11 4 5 22 34 29 31 lose
Set3 24 18 9 17 35 8 20 5 lose
Set4 29 32 16 11 6 13 1 34 lose
Set5 16 31 16 32 22 15 27 11 win
Set6 14 22 14 33 2 4 22 18 win
Set7 33 13 35 36 18 19 28 4 lose
Set8 3 29 29 19 11 3 11 25 win
Set9 17 9 18 8 31 36 0 13 lose
Set10 23 2 3 31 28 34 2 29 win
Set11 34 6 18 23 23 30 21 17 win
Set12 13 20 31 35 11 15 24 25 lose
Set13 2 35 17 15 30 26 20 23 lose
Set14 28 1 19 4 11 29 18 10 lose
Set15 7 4 5 28 3 13 26 32 lose
Set16 6 0 35 6 26 20 10 3 win
Set17 4 4 19 5 7 3 20 12 win
Set18 35 3 29 0 27 14 11 10 lose
Set19 0 26 7 31 31 7 22 28 win
Set20 11 31 28 21 2 27 2 10 win
Set21 36 2 30 29 22 25 5 1 lose
Set22 19 13 19 0 22 16 0 win
11 wins and 11 loses = 50%
One more example from :
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/actuals-permanences/dublinbet-com-actuals/
Set1 2 32 21 11 7 26 35 10 lose
Set2 9 20 17 19 21 13 36 15 lose
Set3 31 16 18 2 26 12 27 2 win
Set4 31 27 36 10 23 16 27 9 win
Set5 6 1 14 13 17 28 (ball came off wheel) 11 lose
So 2 wins vs 3 loses = 40%
If you lose on last number in set of 8 nums then youurs profit is 0 on that set: thats neither lose or win.
1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8=36
edit: see rjeaton posts..
I know then we can use progression, but why then only 8 numbers, why not 10 or 12 or 15?
Quote from: GogoCro on November 24, 2009, 03:00:52 PM
If you lose on last number in set of 8 nums then youurs profit is 0 on that set: thats neither lose or win.
1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8=36
Hi GogoCro,
Good question.
I haven't go to the "betting" part.
I want to confirm the probability of a repeat in 8 spin is slightly more than 50%.
No betting yet. Just theory first...go slow...if it is proven to be more than 50%, then there are many possible "betting" for this theory.
Do you have any numbers to help test the percentage?
Thank you! ;)
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Ok, you can download here in "download" sections.
But You can look from member rjeaton some of his posts here. Use search method to find his expirience of
betting like this.
Hi Guys,
Ok, below is the chart for all the probability:
Probability
1 0.00000000000000%
2 2.70270270270270%
3 7.96201607012418%
4 15.42455530768170%
5 24.56784662577010%
6 34.76138086553090%
7 45.34061640085020%
8 55.68158086555430%
9 65.26394175948850%
10 73.71325322339670%
11 80.81777937923540%
12 86.52060172594920%
13 90.89229846347920%
14 94.09230170604060%
15 96.32764700645760%
16 97.81643876059640%
17 98.76068145871690%
18 99.33009808579290%
19 99.65599631432610%
20 99.83264685561810%
21 99.92310801474350%
22 99.96674941178100%
23 99.98652003180310%
24 99.99489947149310%
25 99.99820792241650%
26 99.99941878564860%
27 99.99982720654420%
28 99.99995329906600%
29 99.99998864031330%
30 99.99999754385150%
31 99.99999953532330%
32 99.99999992464700%
33 99.99999998981720%
34 99.99999999889920%
35 99.99999999991070%
36 99.99999999999520%
37 99.99999999999990%
38 100.00000000000000%
This is how you look at the chart.
1 number = 0% have a repeat
8 number = 55.69% have a repeat
38 number = 100% repeat (Hehe...remember Dlysexlic?)
Can someone tell me whether the above is "probable"?
Is it probability?
Thank you.
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Hi all,
In roulette there are 37 numbers including the zero.
So, the more spins the more numbers get "hit".
With more numbers, it is easier / more probable to get a repeat.
Example if you bet on 36 numbers, it is very high probability the numbers you bet will get it...if you bet one number only, it has very low possibility to repeat....vice versa...
Does it makes sense?
If you bet 37 numbers, you 100% get a repeat! ( such a dumb example :girl_wacko:)
Haha...
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Hi VLS,
The above percentage is base on a mathematics theory.
Can anyone guess the name of the theory?
Erm...the person who guess correct will get a kiss from twocatsam!!! ( lol...just kidding)
Maybe a kiss from lanky?? :thumbsup:
Lol..
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Quote from: NoBody on November 24, 2009, 03:31:42 PM
Erm...the person who guess correct will get a kiss from twocatsam!!! ( lol...just kidding)
This month we owe a big kiss to the cat!
Quote from: NoBody on November 24, 2009, 03:31:42 PM
Can anyone guess the name of the theory?
Pigeonhole Principle?
Quote from: VLSroulette on November 24, 2009, 08:56:05 PM
Pigeonhole Principle?
Haha...nice try Victor... :thumbsup:
Nope. It is not the pigeonhole principle...very close... :nono:
Pigeonhole is for spin 38 only.
This is on a repeat that is slighty more than 50%...
Any math expert here?
Winkel? WWM? Mr.J? TwoCatSam? Anyone?
By the way, anyone tested with numbers? How is the result?
We are talking probability... and if the percentage is true... we can try to gain "advantage" in long term...
That is "IF" the theory is true...
Still in brainstorming...
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
so why not wait for 14 idependant numbers and place a bet on each of them?
Quote from: Jish on November 27, 2009, 07:54:04 AM
so why not wait for 14 idependant numbers and place a bet on each of them?
Erm..Jish...
I don't think it works that way...
The 94% on 14 numbers doesn't mean you have 94% it will repeat in 15th spin!!!
It means you have 94% of finding a repeat for with a set of random 14 numbers. You still have a 6% that you will missed.
It is different.
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Quote from: NoBody on November 27, 2009, 08:35:13 AM
The 94% on 14 numbers doesn't mean you have 94% it will repeat in 15th spin!!!
It means you have 94% of finding a repeat for with a set of random 14 numbers. You still have a 6% that you will missed.
It is different.
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
I understand what your saying, but i still beleive there is that chance of a repeat, according to the table there is a 96.32764700645760% chance of finding a repeat in 15 numbers, so if you had 14 individual numbers there would be a 96% chance of a repeat in the set of 15, who knows, its meerly a suggestion i will investigate it myself since your not interesed
Quote from: Jish on November 27, 2009, 10:15:54 AM
I understand what your saying, but I still beleive there is that chance of a repeat, according to the table there is a 96.32764700645760% chance of finding a repeat in 15 numbers, so if you had 14 individual numbers there would be a 96% chance of a repeat in the set of 15, who knows, its meerly a suggestion I will investigate it myself since your not interesed
Hi Jish,
I believe the 96% apply to the whole set! if you choose 15 numbers...then the percentage apply to the set(15 numbers)...
You must bet from the 1st number till the last number in order to "full utilized" the percentage..
Example:
for a 15 number set you have 96% of a repeat and 4 % of non repeat...
In order words, in 100 set, you will have 96 winning set and 4 losing set...
Your 96 winning set maybe winning on the 1st spin if you are lucky, or the last spin which is the 15 spin...
If you choose to ONLY bet after 14 individual number hit in the 100 set, you will missed out all the repeat within 15 spin...you will missed out...and you will have very high chance that your set will be the 4% ( no repeat in 15 spin)..
Forgive me for lousy explanation..i hope you understand what I saying...
This is the same with martingale...it doesnt matter how many "losses" you wait to start your progression...when you wait for the "losses", you will also lose the opportunity to win while waiting the loss...
Just my two cents..
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Good points NB
Understandable :).
Hello,
As I was here posting earlier today, I also stumbled over this thread.
I had a couple of hours so I thought I should help you out...
(Simply couldn't resist)
You want to know the probability for you to hit if you bet 8 times: 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 numbers.
This is how I would calculate it:
The % of all your future bets (wins + losses) = 100%
The probability for a hit = n /37 where n is your number of numbers
- First bet: You bet 1 number and so have a 36/37 (97.2973%) to lose. You do and make a second bet.
- Second bet: You will be here in 97.2973%. You bet 2 numbers so you will have a 35/37 (94.5946%) chance of the 97.2973% to lose = 92.038%. You do and make a third bet.
- Third bet: You will be here in 92.038%. You bet 3 numbers so you will have a 34/37 (91.8919%) chance of the 92.038% to lose = 84.5754%. You do and make a fourth bet.
- Fourth bet: You will be here in 84.5754%. You bet 4 numbers so you will have a 33/37 (89.1892%) chance of the 84.5754% to lose = 75.4321%. You do and bake a fifth bet.
- Fifth bet: You will be here in 75.4321%. You bet 5 numbers so you will have a 32/37 (86.4865%) chance of the 75.4321% to lose = 65.2386%. You do and make a sixth bet.
- Sixth bet: You will be here in 65.2386%. You bet 6 numbers so you will have a 31/37 (83.7838%) chance of the 65.2386% to lose = 54.6594%. You do and make a seventh bet.
- Seventh bet: You will be here in 54.6594%. You bet 7 numbers so you will have a 30/37 (81.0811%) chance of the 54.6594% to lose = 44.3184%. You do and make an eighth bet.
- Eighth bet: You will be here in 44.3184%. You bet 8 numbers so you will have a 29/37 (78.3784%) chance of the 44.3184% to lose = 34.736%. You do and ... lost it all.
So you will lose all eight bets in 34.736% = You will win in 65.264%.
(You can do like this with many methods, to find the %)
GREAT!
But then; will it be profitable?
Let's suppose 1,000,000 tests.
And I will round everything to the gambler's benefit (so there will be small differences to the above).
- First bet: You bet 1u 1,000,000 times (= -1,000,000u) and get 36u back in 2.7027% (1/37) or 27,028 times (= +973,008u).
You bet 1,000,000u and got 973,008u back.
You are now down 26,992u. Your total bets so far = 1,000,000u so you've lost 2.6992% up to now.
The 972,972 times you didn't win, you make a second bet.
- Second bet: You bet 2u 972,972 times (= -1,945,944u) and get 36u back in 5.4054% (2/37) or 52,594 times (= +1,893,384u)
You were already down 26,992u and bet another 1,945,944u and got 1,893,384u back.
You are now down 79,552u. Your total bets so far = 2,945,944u so you've lost 2.7003% up to now.
The 920,378 times you didn't win, you make a third bet.
- Third bet: You bet 3u 920,378 times (= -2,761,134u) and get 36u back in 8.1081% (3/37) or 74,626 times (= +2,686,536u)
You were already down 79,552u and bet another 2,761,134u and got 2,686,536u back.
You are now down 154,150u. Your total bets so far = 5,707,078u so you've lost 2.701% up to now.
The 845,702 times you didn't win, you make a fourth bet.
- Fourth bet: You bet 4u 845,702 times (= -3,382,808u) and get 36u back in 10.8108% (4/37) or 91,428 times (= +3,291,408u)
You were already down 154,150u and bet another 3,382,808u and got 3,291,408u back.
You are now down 245,550u. Your total bets so far = 9,089,886u so you've lost 2.701% up to now.
The 754,274 times you didn't win, you make a fifth bet.
- Fifth bet: You bet 5u 754,274 times (= -3,771,370u) and get 36u back in 13.5135% (5/37) or 101,929 times (= +3,669,444u)
You were already down 245,550u and bet another 3,771,370u and got 3,669,444u back.
You are now down 347,476u. Your total bets so far = 12,861,256u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 652,345 times you didn't win, you make a sixth bet.
- Sixth bet: You bet 6u 652,345 times (= -3,914,070u) and get 36u back in 16.2162% (6/37) or 105,786 times (= +3,808,296u)
You were already down 347,476u and bet another 3,914,070u and got 3,808,296u back.
You are now down 453,250u. Your total bets so far = 16,775,326u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 546,559 times you didn't win, you make a seventh bet.
- Seventh bet: You bet 7u 546,559 times (= -3,825,913u) and get 36u back in 18.9189% (7/37) or 103,404 times (= +3,722,544u)
You were already down 453,250u and bet another 3,825,913u and got 3,722,544u back.
You are now down 556,619u. Your total bets so far = 20,601,239u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 443,155 times you didn't win, you make an eightth bet.
- Eighth bet: You bet 8u 443,155 times (= -3,545,240u) and get 36u back in 21.6216% (8/37) or 95,818 times (= +3,449,448u)
You were already down 556,619u and bet another 3,545,240u and got 3,449,448u back.
You are now down 652,411u. Your total bets so far = 24,146,479u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 347,337 times you didn't win, you lost it all.
End Result: -2.702%
(Again: You can do like this with many methods, to find the %)
And in reality...?
I checked my Wiesbaden spins...
I waited until I had 8 different numbers and then I bet them until I won or had 8 losses.
Then I started to look for 8 new different numbers.
Then they were bet in the order they were found.
Consider this string of results: 3 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 7 <--- This is eight different numbers.
To find it was 11 spins. Now, at spin 12, the first bet is on #3 because it was found first.
If no win, the second bet is on #3 + 2
Then #3 + 2 + 1
#3 + 2 + 1 + 4
#3 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 6 ... etc.
This is what I found in my files - 43,671 tests:
Level Bets Hits Losses Exit %* Bet U Won U Net U Net %**
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 43671 1175 42496 2.6905% 43671 42300 -1371 -3.1393
2 42496 2320 40176 8.0030% 128663 125820 -2843 -2.2096
3 40176 3184 36992 15.2939% 249191 240444 -8747 -3.5101
4 36992 4109 32883 24.7028% 397159 388368 -8791 -2.2134
5 32883 4363 28520 34.6935% 561574 545436 -16138 -2.8737
6 28520 4529 23991 45.0642% 732694 708480 -24214 -3.3047
7 23991 4650 19341 55.7120% 900631 875880 -24751 -2.7481
8 19341 4134 15207 65.1782% 1055359 1024704 -30655 -2.9046
*) Won tests in % of 43,671 started tests.
**) Net % of total units bet so far.
You won in 65.1782%.
...buuut...
End Result: -2.9046%
Best regards,
Homeito Bemek
May I fax that kiss to them? Don't want to get the P I G hog flu!
Sam
Well that evidence puts my theory out the window, as with my own testing you were right Nobody, it does put you into that 4% alot more then you are not in it, oh well back to the drawing board
Quote from: TwoCatSam on November 27, 2009, 04:31:41 PM
May I fax that kiss to them? Don't want to get the P I G hog flu!
Sam
Haha Sam...
You can give a rose instead.. :give_rose:
Regards,
NoBody ^.^
Hi Homeito,
Thanks a lot for the date and info...
Yes, I was aspecting that...
It is like winning the battle but lose the war...
You win more than 50%, however the amount of your wins could not compensate the total lost.
Thank you Homeito.
Regards,
NoBody ^.^