Take any number. Let's say number 1.
In 1000 appearances of this number,
how many times the number appeared immediately after the previous appearance (in the next spin)
how many times it appeared after exactly 2 spins
how many times after exactly 3 spins
etc.
etc.
how many times it appeared after exactly 100 spins
etc.
etc.
Is there anyone who can run such a simulation and tell us the results?
Or can someone calculate these numbers using probability theory?
thanks
If I understand you correctly, you need to use the geometric distribution. The probability that the first success will occur on the xth trial is:
p(x) = p(1 - p)x-1
So for a single number, p = 1/37 and 1 - p = 36/37
The probability that the number will hit on the first spin is p(1) = 1/37 × (36/37)0 = 1/37
The probability that the number will hit on the second spin is p(2) = 1/37 × (36/37)1
The probability that the number will hit on the third spin is p(3) = 1/37 × (36/37)2
The probability that the number will hit on the fourth spin is p(4) = 1/37 × (36/37)3
See the pattern?
You can easily set this up in a spreadsheet.
Bayes,
Your equations are correct.
Nice to have someone like you here.
Thank you for your help.
Btw, do you see someting that could lead to a betting method here? 8) food for thought.
Here is what Louis G. Holloway in his book "Full Time Gambler" had to say about getting an edge at roulette:
QuoteOn one hundred thousand authentic roulette numbers I made a "gap book". Each number was tabulated in terms of the gap figure between hits. Then each split, each street, each four-block, each six-block, each dozen, each column, and each even money play was "gapped". This greatly condensed the big run of numbers and put the whole thing into a new perspective or dimension. Through this kind of work, one is able to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.
By plotting graphs from the totals of each approach, we can determine the peak of each cycle - when to get in and when to get out. Ridiculous, you say? They said that about the atomic bomb, television, and the airplane too. I am not saying we know exactly when to pick up a number or group of numbers. What I am saying is that over the long-range period we can and do turn the percentage and improve cold selecting.
Was he right?
Here is a list of a thousand hits of the number 1. The number 1 first occurred after 8 spins, then there was a gap of 87 before it hit again, then a gap of 47 etc. Try plotting the numbers in a spreadsheet, and see if you can find any reliable patterns. It's not easy! >:D
If you think you've found a reliable "trigger", form a hypothesis. It could be something like "I believe that when there are 2 gaps of 30 or less, then the next gap will be also less than 30". Then put it to the test.
1 8
2 87
3 47
4 14
5 16
6 34
7 69
8 14
9 86
10 58
11 60
12 57
13 21
14 12
15 64
16 18
17 6
18 94
19 30
20 15
21 7
22 10
23 26
24 97
25 73
26 0
27 35
28 53
29 44
30 1
31 52
32 32
33 12
34 25
35 47
36 40
37 50
38 12
39 23
40 0
41 0
42 58
43 3
44 88
45 5
46 20
47 1
48 31
49 61
50 0
51 7
52 28
53 6
54 37
55 123
56 27
57 2
58 22
59 30
60 10
61 23
62 66
63 15
64 9
65 13
66 70
67 38
68 8
69 3
70 17
71 27
72 14
73 12
74 95
75 139
76 28
77 10
78 85
79 4
80 8
81 34
82 68
83 55
84 43
85 65
86 58
87 14
88 65
89 67
90 48
91 39
92 55
93 16
94 13
95 87
96 2
97 67
98 114
99 180
100 225
101 31
102 76
103 3
104 53
105 16
106 56
107 171
108 22
109 112
110 200
111 53
112 39
113 13
114 113
115 5
116 58
117 40
118 1
119 79
120 0
121 16
122 10
123 27
124 45
125 84
126 13
127 77
128 19
129 105
130 165
131 1
132 3
133 18
134 14
135 6
136 1
137 48
138 129
139 7
140 25
141 8
142 20
143 6
144 5
145 21
146 21
147 1
148 12
149 16
150 1
151 43
152 82
153 21
154 78
155 43
156 9
157 3
158 37
159 1
160 3
161 22
162 6
163 11
164 59
165 42
166 10
167 0
168 3
169 38
170 34
171 36
172 33
173 8
174 37
175 106
176 9
177 85
178 2
179 11
180 24
181 21
182 71
183 13
184 1
185 45
186 27
187 49
188 58
189 27
190 128
191 51
192 3
193 122
194 59
195 48
196 1
197 46
198 4
199 20
200 6
201 15
202 6
203 85
204 46
205 51
206 40
207 20
208 86
209 6
210 183
211 18
212 111
213 19
214 39
215 9
216 16
217 104
218 13
219 0
220 16
221 4
222 16
223 28
224 271
225 62
226 3
227 3
228 37
229 161
230 7
231 77
232 10
233 3
234 25
235 5
236 28
237 20
238 0
239 18
240 194
241 93
242 4
243 7
244 13
245 7
246 10
247 17
248 9
249 63
250 72
251 34
252 29
253 42
254 20
255 9
256 100
257 3
258 5
259 104
260 3
261 28
262 24
263 4
264 4
265 33
266 105
267 93
268 16
269 0
270 10
271 115
272 0
273 24
274 38
275 11
276 11
277 29
278 5
279 61
280 17
281 17
282 7
283 53
284 64
285 28
286 71
287 20
288 2
289 67
290 1
291 48
292 65
293 44
294 9
295 68
296 108
297 28
298 17
299 56
300 13
301 23
302 92
303 17
304 3
305 72
306 78
307 82
308 2
309 35
310 49
311 38
312 66
313 9
314 12
315 11
316 2
317 9
318 44
319 76
320 74
321 81
322 50
323 158
324 50
325 6
326 6
327 17
328 4
329 30
330 28
331 14
332 17
333 8
334 17
335 1
336 9
337 48
338 18
339 34
340 50
341 10
342 4
343 135
344 12
345 35
346 164
347 5
348 1
349 6
350 21
351 78
352 14
353 36
354 105
355 9
356 25
357 69
358 24
359 27
360 38
361 26
362 86
363 6
364 52
365 3
366 3
367 17
368 46
369 42
370 33
371 10
372 12
373 0
374 35
375 41
376 67
377 75
378 2
379 18
380 4
381 141
382 71
383 2
384 7
385 24
386 63
387 6
388 15
389 0
390 19
391 16
392 44
393 18
394 6
395 32
396 77
397 25
398 19
399 7
400 13
401 43
402 59
403 45
404 18
405 85
406 5
407 9
408 24
409 10
410 25
411 73
412 42
413 29
414 39
415 8
416 65
417 41
418 62
419 3
420 58
421 22
422 16
423 71
424 44
425 58
426 59
427 28
428 33
429 1
430 17
431 16
432 73
433 76
434 69
435 21
436 0
437 20
438 94
439 25
440 61
441 35
442 113
443 0
444 14
445 3
446 28
447 11
448 30
449 47
450 82
451 67
452 48
453 13
454 54
455 4
456 10
457 24
458 12
459 66
460 27
461 34
462 0
463 44
464 10
465 9
466 1
467 69
468 20
469 20
470 92
471 8
472 59
473 189
474 11
475 78
476 5
477 57
478 9
479 34
480 12
481 14
482 30
483 13
484 48
485 1
486 11
487 0
488 68
489 36
490 15
491 61
492 39
493 87
494 21
495 36
496 0
497 44
498 6
499 98
500 22
501 9
502 18
503 34
504 49
505 3
506 24
507 33
508 86
509 23
510 15
511 96
512 52
513 45
514 12
515 21
516 2
517 104
518 43
519 162
520 7
521 38
522 4
523 9
524 2
525 5
526 1
527 4
528 4
529 21
530 15
531 27
532 37
533 14
534 0
535 36
536 69
537 53
538 39
539 87
540 49
541 49
542 15
543 23
544 51
545 31
546 89
547 13
548 24
549 6
550 29
551 66
552 33
553 189
554 9
555 66
556 88
557 58
558 4
559 19
560 41
561 46
562 67
563 1
564 34
565 13
566 20
567 47
568 13
569 25
570 15
571 77
572 32
573 18
574 17
575 3
576 4
577 34
578 60
579 8
580 30
581 67
582 2
583 8
584 42
585 38
586 3
587 50
588 12
589 40
590 70
591 100
592 0
593 25
594 40
595 91
596 49
597 24
598 23
599 29
600 41
601 65
602 74
603 9
604 20
605 90
606 34
607 31
608 15
609 47
610 0
611 11
612 160
613 47
614 29
615 16
616 6
617 10
618 55
619 106
620 6
621 59
622 27
623 55
624 2
625 14
626 28
627 2
628 3
629 6
630 95
631 51
632 27
633 45
634 1
635 63
636 39
637 8
638 0
639 15
640 29
641 1
642 1
643 9
644 0
645 72
646 12
647 10
648 86
649 19
650 61
651 9
652 8
653 46
654 33
655 80
656 5
657 3
658 27
659 77
660 64
661 6
662 71
663 14
664 41
665 18
666 2
667 8
668 81
669 2
670 17
671 50
672 33
673 23
674 6
675 17
676 73
677 10
678 47
679 41
680 63
681 57
682 38
683 40
684 72
685 19
686 45
687 29
688 200
689 30
690 28
691 28
692 25
693 46
694 4
695 40
696 37
697 15
698 49
699 9
700 13
701 49
702 14
703 39
704 25
705 125
706 29
707 15
708 114
709 13
710 2
711 27
712 23
713 4
714 44
715 115
716 20
717 7
718 25
719 50
720 71
721 64
722 47
723 2
724 18
725 0
726 28
727 2
728 58
729 14
730 44
731 0
732 17
733 14
734 42
735 13
736 34
737 51
738 8
739 96
740 152
741 12
742 30
743 15
744 26
745 81
746 11
747 7
748 15
749 121
750 2
751 16
752 32
753 15
754 11
755 100
756 9
757 8
758 34
759 6
760 7
761 1
762 16
763 39
764 53
765 49
766 29
767 31
768 15
769 7
770 1
771 40
772 34
773 10
774 4
775 1
776 93
777 20
778 12
779 2
780 60
781 46
782 28
783 35
784 22
785 77
786 0
787 37
788 77
789 56
790 17
791 28
792 23
793 23
794 88
795 12
796 4
797 41
798 12
799 2
800 15
801 11
802 11
803 176
804 34
805 0
806 45
807 2
808 11
809 73
810 4
811 13
812 111
813 157
814 30
815 13
816 19
817 1
818 3
819 26
820 75
821 91
822 0
823 6
824 102
825 37
826 37
827 3
828 1
829 16
830 74
831 5
832 47
833 55
834 26
835 53
836 0
837 79
838 12
839 32
840 3
841 23
842 23
843 5
844 18
845 75
846 54
847 12
848 1
849 2
850 16
851 28
852 26
853 57
854 28
855 62
856 7
857 17
858 36
859 8
860 25
861 5
862 30
863 3
864 44
865 22
866 90
867 12
868 7
869 0
870 56
871 91
872 30
873 17
874 22
875 6
876 4
877 14
878 41
879 13
880 27
881 49
882 139
883 27
884 18
885 52
886 129
887 15
888 43
889 36
890 13
891 152
892 47
893 10
894 33
895 63
896 134
897 14
898 65
899 19
900 16
901 127
902 18
903 2
904 25
905 0
906 9
907 31
908 37
909 82
910 13
911 40
912 1
913 51
914 50
915 30
916 8
917 17
918 2
919 36
920 10
921 5
922 18
923 9
924 137
925 75
926 63
927 72
928 10
929 116
930 33
931 68
932 10
933 5
934 11
935 5
936 29
937 20
938 7
939 5
940 28
941 23
942 30
943 18
944 0
945 155
946 62
947 26
948 30
949 63
950 58
951 6
952 221
953 45
954 16
955 162
956 26
957 36
958 64
959 0
960 20
961 3
962 46
963 5
964 14
965 9
966 37
967 38
968 10
969 19
970 4
971 6
972 45
973 9
974 11
975 29
976 35
977 27
978 2
979 55
980 15
981 89
982 223
983 40
984 221
985 1
986 50
987 41
988 150
989 22
990 91
991 12
992 76
993 7
994 73
995 122
996 53
997 39
998 11
999 31
p.s. Kav, nice web site. :good:
The point of finding a useful meaning of hot number distribution is to understand its nature. With that you might be able to exploit that understanding. The hottest numbers flow from extremely hot to mildly hot states. I'm not saying the these numbers change from hot to warm, although they do at times. I'm saying that the currently hottest few numbers are very hot or just mildly hot. An example would be anything above 20 hits per 300 spins for the very hot. A normal hot number will hit from 12 to 18 times in 300 spins. There will be a few very cold numbers too. They will hit from 1 to 5 times in 300 spins. The average is 8 times. It takes 9 hits in 300 spins to end just above even. So the payoff odds for a single hot number are 8/9 out of 300 spins.
So how do you find a sequence you like while playing 300 spins? A mildly hot number happens on average, over 300 spins, at about every 20 spins for 15 hits out of 300. Of course it's not going to happen at every 20 spins. Some are going to be less than 10 and some are going to more than 30. There will probably be a long stretch too, something longer than 60 during that 300 spins. The trick is to become aware of commonalties of 300 spin sequences. It's difficult to get 300 spins at a real casino on a real wheel. It takes as much as ten to twelve hours of continuous play.
I suggest understanding Roulette in sequences of 300 spins or less. Thousands and thousands of 300 spin sequences are more valuable to you than a million spins.
Betting on a few numbers can be very profitable, in fact it's mathematically the soundest way to play. With long-shots the "bunching" effect is more pronounced, and you can often take advantage of this.
But yes, some can't take the volatility. :spiteful:
Quote from: fender1000 on May 08, 2010, 12:27:43 PM
Yes until you fall for fools gold and rely on a number that goes on holiday for 200 plus spins. Then its wipeout. Straights are where all the negatives hopes and dreams live. YOU WILL LOSE LONGTERM FOR CERTAIN WITH THEM.
Normal hot numbers hit within 15 to 20 spins, across a 300 spin stretch, on average. So any number that goes past 30 should be switched to another hot number. The trick to randomness is in making changes that work. So find a good reason to change numbers, and when, and you should have a very good system. Only a fool expects to win every time you use a rule based system.
Fender,
I'm sorry but you simply don't know what you're talking about. No-one is suggesting you pick a single number and stick to it religiously for hundreds of spins. Your ideas seem to be very limited regarding straights - stick to your dozens if they frighten you, but don't offload your ignorance on everyone else! :punish:
It's a common misconception that betting on a lot of numbers (or the outside bets) is safer than betting fewer numbers. Not so.
Quote from: fender1000 on May 08, 2010, 12:46:08 PM
Straights are the fastest way to the poor house AVOID!
You will change your tune in less than a year, here at this forum. Inside numbers are the only way to create other groupings not offered by the outside portions of the layout. You think they are different but mathematically they pay out the same as the outside bets. If you bet any random 18 numbers on the inside it's an EC bet. Three line bets are 18 numbers. You don't know that at least three numbers will be hot for 300 spins. I don't bet the hot numbers because I would have to sit there for 12 hours while incredible things happen in other groupings. I reverse engineered your Zone system and came up with a bet that works for every spin without waiting for triggers. Let's see if you have enough experience for that. You are stuck on magical beliefs and errant conclusions. That's the current state of your experience.
Bayes,
Thank you for your compliments and your data.
Louis G. Holloway's book is out of print, and very sought after. A very good book - It would be helpful if you could share more excerpts from it.
Giz,
It's obvious you know a thing or two about hot numbers :)
fender,
please don't be so narrow-minded and please do not "hijack" this thread.
Straights are the fastest way to the poor house AVOID!
I will have to respectfully disagree with you there Fender. On saying that, I have experimented with some methods where I am betting 28 numbers and the results are amazing. It is all about bet selection regardless of just betting 1 number or 28 numbers. Get that part right and you would not need to consider the use of progressive betting.
Eventually you will have to accept that probability has no memory and will see that progressive betting offers you no advantage other than an illusion that you are somehow getting one over on the house. Unfortunately this is not the case.
wow! That was really revealing!!! First time I hear such wise words.
Keep up the good work, keep us infirmed and on the right track!
Quote from: roolette on May 24, 2010, 08:24:30 PM
well thats what you get for asking silly questions, you are not going to get an answer such as" OH YES THATS HOW YOU BET, YOU HAVE THE HOLY GRAIL" not gonna happen, you will either be lucky or lose, and in the long run, you will lose and lose period!
You really know what you are talking about. Thanks for the insight and above all the warnings. If it weren't for your wise advice I'd lose all my money. But now I follow your advice and I'm happy.
Btw, how do you know what will happen in the long run? How can you be sure one will not be lucky and win. If you think you know what will happen in the long run, it is like believing that something (in this case the lösing run) is
DUE. I thought that believing something (anything - even losing) is due, is gamblers fallacy. Hmmm... You used a "gamblers fallacy" way of thinking, to prove that losing is certain.
Anyway this is probably too complicated for you to understand. Let's keep it simple: None will win, there's no way to beat roulette, the house edge is king, we are all losing our time here. OK, I will repeat after you, again and again. Roulette is designed to beat me!!!! Man do I feel much wiser now!
Thanks for sharing you deep knowledge of the issue of roulette. What would have we done without you?