Here's a quote from R.D. Ellison:
"Only through an evaluation of the table's past results can a player aspire to anticipate the direction of trend development, enabling him to gain valuable insights into what the future may hold at that table.The real art lies in the ability to read the data that is constantly streaming from the table. You have to follow the information labyrinth until you come to the right doorway."
He says 'ability to read the data'. That sounds like looking for clues in the short term data stream to me. Why would he say something like that if he wasn't onto something. Why do people who seriously study roulette always come to the same conclusions, that immediate past spins hold clues to the next spin. I'm talking about people who study the game, not those that study the math. We already know where that leads..
QuoteApplying The Law of Statistical Propensity
American Roulette Is Now Mathematically Beatable
by R.D. Ellison
Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something that either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition.
--Brooke's Law
read it here (nolinks://nolinks.thegamblersedge.com/propensity.htm)
Excerpts from a portion of the book found online:
"The message here, is that before you can learn to Win, you must first learn how to Not Lose. And the surest path to both is to have the patience of a saint, all the time, every day, every session, and with every bet you make."
He makes perfect sense in his definition to "Continuum."
In the chapter: The Formidable Power of Trends, the author says:
"In that spirit, the key to successful gambling lies in the ability to anticipate trend development. You need to size up the table as you play, and chart a course in your mind that represents its logical destination. Then you act upon that projection, for as long as you think you can continue to win.
If you don't get this; if this concept eludes you, there might not be bountiful success at the tables in your immediate future. To win, and continue to win, you have to understand, embrace, and believe in trends."
I recommend this book to new gamblers trying to figure out trends.
Quote from: Spike! on May 14, 2010, 12:39:51 PM
Here's a quote from R.D. Ellison:
Meh. He's just a gambling/system book writer (I've researched him). What he suggests is pseudo-science.
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 03:12:17 PM
Meh. He's just a gambling/system book writer (I've researched him). What he suggests is pseudo-science.
So what do you think about his opinions on "Continuum?" Do you have an opinion on that?
This author even believes in things like the law of averages, and switching tables when hitting a bad run, etc.
You two are such newbies. :sarcastic:
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 03:20:30 PM
This author even believes in things like the law of averages, and switching tables when hitting a bad run, etc.
You two are such newbies. :sarcastic:
Name calling stunts are juvenile troll craft. There is no way you have considered all that I have regarding Roulette and randomness. If you had you would show me respect. The fact is you are a jealous neophyte wannabe. If I had to go on your brain power I'd demand a refund. You just make talking about Roulette a big chore. It's all a theoretical game carried out on the internet to you. I can't respect you. You never contribute anything. Gads, you think ending a bad stretch in a session is a newbie reaction. Yeah, you are full of good advice, NOT!
You're right. this is the way to beat roulette, and you are a pioneer!
Is that what you want? Just spare us your rants.
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 03:43:52 PM
You're right. this is the way to beat roulette, and you are a pioneer!
Is that what you want? Just spare us your rants.
I guess I shouldn't have a comment when being called a newbie? There wasn't anyone around supporting my beliefs in trends. Only today, did I discover that there was someone around with similar opinions back in 1995. You think it's about ego. It's not. You can't spend ego. What I want is for those that are tired of losing money to progressions, contraptions, and betting systems to consider the current state concepts of bet selection. It never gets discussed without math Nazis breaking in an disrupting the conversations. You are disruptive.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 14, 2010, 03:55:16 PM
There wasn't anyone around supporting my beliefs in trends.
I thought "betting on trends" was a pretty old concept as far as casino betting and market trading are concerned. Nothing new under the sun.
"The trend is your friend"... until it ends. :sarcastic:
Gizmo how about I give you streams with random EC/Dozen data containing a dominance and you tell me if the trend will break or continue? Can you predict that at a better-than-chance rate? Step ahead and prove us all wrong.
Here's something I CAN predict: You'll now accuse me of begging you for your system. :sarcastic:
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 04:13:58 PM
Gizmo how about I give you streams with random EC/Dozen data containing a dominance and you tell me if the trend will break or continue? Can you predict that at a better-than-chance rate? Step ahead and prove us all wrong.
Here's something I CAN predict: You'll now accuse me of begging you for your system. :sarcastic:
I can prove that I would have observed the effectiveness of each selection I would make and that every instance of a continuing condition lasted for exactly how long after each one was identified. I would end up with the real data of the session. I would know the stats of the session and if it reached a practical goal. You see, there are stats for reading randomness and tracking the effectiveness of the circumstantial states for each point along the streams of data. You don't seem to get it. I don't care if a bad stretch occurs. I know that it will soon come to a good patch that gets me to my goal. I don't want to help you because you are a qualified jerk. Helping you might actually make me sick. We can't have that. I'm amazed that you can't do something that I can do. I guess you will never sing on American Idol either. I don't care about your needs because you have been a pest and deserve my indifference. Go suck an egg. I heard that one growing up. That fits for you. Beg, don't beg, you don't deserve a demonstration.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 14, 2010, 04:32:10 PM
you don't deserve a demonstration.
How ruthlessly convenient. ;D
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 04:34:27 PM
How ruthlessly convenient. ;D
Convenient would be you and me mountain climbing. I would be happy to give you a demonstration of the laws of gravity.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 14, 2010, 04:36:38 PM
Convenient would be you and me mountain climbing.
That would be challenging and fun.
I'm 22 by the way.
I haven't read Ellisons book, just seen a few quotes from it. Like any book, take what you can use and disregard the rest. He has some real insights and he sure as heck is smart enough to keep the real good stuff to himself. He's not going to sell a Grail for 14.95, but he might give you a taste.
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 14, 2010, 04:56:34 PM
That would be challenging and fun.
I'm 22 by the way.
I'm 58 with heart failure. You really need to fill your cup while you can. I mastered mountain climbing, big mountain skiing, SCUBA diving, wind surfing, piloting aircraft, golfing, Karate, fishing, as well as computer programming, artist management, recording studio operation and design, lead guitar playing, exotic custom housing construction, almost all the trades in construction. I also volunteered for years working with kids. Now add to that 35 years of actual in casino playing experience. I have thousands of cards filled out from charting actual play from my own sessions. It's always been my money on the line.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 14, 2010, 05:09:32 PM
I'm 58 with heart failure. You really need to fill your cup while you can. I mastered mountain climbing, big mountain skiing, SCUBA diving, wind surfing, piloting aircraft, golfing, Karate, fishing, as well as computer programming, artist management, recording studio operation and design, lead guitar playing, exotic custom housing construction, almost all the trades in construction. I also volunteered for years working with kids. Now add to that 35 years of actual in casino playing experience. I have thousands of cards filled out from charting actual play from my own sessions. It's always been my money on the line.
That's pretty amazing. Thanks for the advice. 8)
Quote from: Spike! on May 14, 2010, 05:07:43 PM
I haven't read Ellisons book, just seen a few quotes from it. Like any book, take what you can use and disregard the rest. He has some real insights and he sure as heck is smart enough to keep the real good stuff to himself. He's not going to sell a Grail for 14.95, but he might give you a taste.
I wouldn't assume he has any Grail, but anyway.
I find it facinating that myself, Gizmo, an RD Ellison all arrived at reading random independently. I never read any of Ellisons books, the only roulette books I have are on VB.
This jumps off the page: "The real art lies in the ability to read the data that is constantly streaming from the table."
How many times has Snowman/Herb said to me 'If reading random workd so well, how come nobody has written about it?' What do you say now, Herb, there it is in black and white, from a respected roulette author. Am I still full of it, Herb? Checkmate! LOL!!!!
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fmoneymel.files.wordpress.com%2F2009%2F08%2Fcheckmated2.jpg&hash=b35ce462fa50e8e37fc7823089137c40f6af07fd)
More from Ellison:
'A careful analysis of the past table decisions enables the player to foretell future table results with enough precision to reverse the house edge. This in turn enables him to win more than the math of the game would otherwise allow.' and 'the game of roulette has been transformed from a game of chance, to a game of skill.' and
'The root problem in all other systems is their one-size-fits-all approach, which pays no heed to the inclination of the table.'
My god, I have been saying this stuff on GG for years, practically word for word, and all I ever got is ridicule and laughter. Figuring out how to read the random changes the house math and throws it out the window. The casino is now playing your game, instead of you playing theirs. Systems don't work because they ignore what the current random is telling them. Put that in your corncob pipe and smoke it, Snowman.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Frandsco.com%2F_img%2Fblog%2F0804%2Funhappy_snowman.jpg&hash=066a0bdd2cd271ead196100376db6bc6b29a8b61)
G'day,
I can't read random, but as I've said MANY times, I wish I could & I DON'T disbelieve Spike & Gizmo!
My system finds & tracks 'runs / trends' & bets accordingly but through mathamatical reasoning.
The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions so my system uses the
past spins to help identify when 'runs' are likely to start & how much to bet on said predictions!
The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions>>
Increasing accuracy increases edge, and if you don't have the edge, you don't consistantly win. Edge depends on one thing, bet selection. If you have the edge, progressions are a waste of time.
I agree with you both, Spike and MiniBaccarat
I don't like progressions as for me they only propose is to make you live in a "dream world", till your progression loss.
The only way to beat roulette is with a really good bet selection.
Ok, most people think "then if I have an edge, I will use a progression to cover my losses" WRONG
If you have an edge just flat bet ! That way you can use BIGGER units as you don't have the risk of a progression, then you win more :)
The only problem about all this... is to get the edge !
Ahah :p
Regards,
Afonso
Quote from: Spike! on May 14, 2010, 11:30:00 PM
More from Ellison:
'A careful analysis of the past table decisions enables the player to foretell future table results with enough precision to reverse the house edge. (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Frandsco.com%2F_img%2Fblog%2F0804%2Funhappy_snowman.jpg&hash=066a0bdd2cd271ead196100376db6bc6b29a8b61)
So past spins do matter to reading randomness then Spike...its not all about the next single spin?
TSK
>>If you have an edge just flat bet ! That way you can use BIGGER units as you don't have the risk of a progression, then you win more>>>
Yes. If you have the edge, you control it by flat betting. A progression is a waste of time.
So past spins do matter to reading randomness then Spike...>>>
If you don't look at past spins, what is there to read? How do you read anything that isn't already written?
Quote from: Spike! on May 15, 2010, 06:14:20 PM
So past spins do matter to reading randomness then Spike...>>>
If you don't look at past spins, what is there to read? How do you read anything that isn't already written?
Then I must have mis-interpreted your previous posts on another Forum....My bad!! :girl_wacko:
G'day,
I want to recant my statement that I have an 'edge'!
I believe I have but obviously my definition is different to Spike's and others so I
will just take it back and will take a while to work out how to reword my statement.
Glenn.
Quote from: Spike! on May 15, 2010, 06:14:20 PM
If you don't look at past spins, what is there to read?
The wheel.
So if you read the wheel, you don't consider what its just done, then? If you don't look at what the wheel has recently produced, what are you reading?
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 14, 2010, 01:26:56 PM
read it here (nolinks://nolinks.thegamblersedge.com/propensity.htm)
Gizmotron:
I just read the article by RD Ellison through the link you provided.
It was a very interesting read with much food for thought. I have always felt that the only way to beat the game is by predicting trends and taking advantage of them just enough to overcome the house edge.
Thank you very much,
George
Gizmotron:
I appreciate your comments on this forum. We're about the same age so we realize that everything we thought we knew at the tender, young age of 22 was in for some serious tweaking as the years went by. Please don't waste your time writing responses to the negative crowd. They're just white noise and as long as they stay civil, I guess we have to tolerate them.
I'd just about given up on roulette until your comments started reving up my interest again. Keep writing and sharing your thoughts re: trends.
I've read some complaints about your writing style, and some of the things you write are fairly difficult to follow. But this adds to rather than detracts from your credibility. At least you don't write in textese which is practically a foreign language to us middle aged guys.
Cheers
Quote from: GLC on May 15, 2010, 09:55:37 PM
Gizmotron:
I just read the article by RD Ellison through the link you provided.
It was a very interesting read with much food for thought. I have always felt that the only way to beat the game is by predicting trends and taking advantage of them just enough to overcome the house edge.
Thank you very much,
George
I actually found excerpts from the book on line. There are a few pages that have some very interesting things to say. Check that out. You'll like it.
Quote from: GLC on May 15, 2010, 10:20:06 PM
Gizmotron: I appreciate your comments on this forum.
Thanks
The thing about trends is that on their own they don't do anything. You learn from attempting to use them to your advantage. That experience leads to knowing when things will work. The point is not to be all worked up about discovering them. That must be second nature for you. The point is to see how it works for you. To gain experience using them to get ahead. It's that experience of playing to win that needs to be learned. You must learn how to avoid losing. The flat bet, even chance bets, balance for each bet. In those areas you can gain the experience the best. Later you can use other techniques that have many different options. The topic is educated guessing, making an educated guess. The experience is in knowing how it changes from working very well to working very badly. You need the full experience.
Quote from: Spike! on May 15, 2010, 09:41:43 PM
So if you read the wheel, you don't consider what its just done, then?
Sure I do.
Current state of the device + Recent performance = Prediction for the next spin.
The device: The major physical elements/variables involved in producing the outcome (the ones I care to look at anyway)
Recent performance: Not the raw random number outcomes (nothing to exploit in those), but the outcomes of non-random physical model of the game. You must learn to see cause-effect relationships where others see chaos.
Quote from: GLC on May 15, 2010, 10:20:06 PM
we realize that everything we thought we knew at the tender, young age of 22 was in for some serious tweaking as the years went by. Please don't waste your time writing responses to the negative crowd.
You make judgments/assumptions about my personal intellect and experience regarding the game merely based on my age.
Well done.
experience regarding the game merely based on my age.>>>
Noble, is this your open house week for your High School graduaton? Congrats! :fan: :music:
Quote from: Spike! on May 15, 2010, 11:54:50 PM
Noble, is this your open house week for your High School graduaton? Congrats! :fan: :music:
Nice try Spike. :sarcastic:
If you indeed are 22, I've been playing in casinos since 17 years before you were born. But I'm sure your knowledge is more vast, just ask you..
Quote from: Spike! on May 16, 2010, 12:12:45 AM
But I'm sure your knowledge is more vast
I know better than to claim having a 22% edge over double-zero roulette playing outside bets based on... guessing. *cough* :sarcastic:
I know better than to claim having a 22% edge over double-zero roulette >>
Um, that would be a 44% edge, not 22. And you're right, if you can't even figure the edge properly, why would you believe it. :lol: :lol: If you win 72% of the time and the casino wins 28% of the time, that means you have an edge over the casino of 44%. High School math.
Right, I almost forgot that your hit rate is actually 72%, shame on me.
44% edge, that's more believable. :lol:
Let me guess, you'll now change your avatar to something that makes fun of my age.
If there's someone who needs growing up and getting over himself, that would be you Mr. 44% edge over the casino. ;D
almost forgot that your hit rate is actually 72%<<<
No, you didn't. You took the difference between 50% and 72% and came up with 22%. Typical rookie mistake. I know because I made it myself when I first started playing, 17 years before you were born.
something that makes fun of my age.<<
There's no shame in being 22, you have to be that age for a whole year to reach 23. Just don't act like you're the be all end all of roulette, it wears real thin.
getting over himself, that would be you Mr. 44% edge>>
If you check the 488 posts I've made, you won't find me bringing it up even ONE time. Its blowhards like you that can't get over it.
Quote from: Spike! on May 16, 2010, 12:40:00 AM
No, you didn't. You took the difference between 50% and 72% and came up with 22%. Typical rookie mistake.
Actually I was thinking 62% hit-rate, took the difference and added 10. It was wrong anyway. No biggie, the point stands the same: It's outrageous.
Quote from: Spike! on May 16, 2010, 12:40:00 AM
Just don't act like you're the be all end all of roulette, it wears real thin.
I'm sure most here would agree that it's you who shouldn't do that. I barely ever mention my own play style, edge, etc. either. It's silly and it doesn't matter anyway. This is the internet where (as we can all see ::)) anybody can claim to be anything.
I barely ever mention my own play style, edge, etc. either.>>>
Find in the 489 posts where I mention mine. You and a dew others are the ones obsessed with it. But at least now you know how to figure edge, that should help you a lot. :wild:
Your claims are made in GG, not here. You just came here.
Then go to GG and talk about them. I don't mention them here because I don't want a lot of noise from pissants who can't find their arse with either hand when reading random.
What is the name of the book by R D Ellison that the quote in reply #1 is taken from please?
TSK
Quote from: The Spiders Kiss on May 16, 2010, 05:57:37 AM
What is the name of the book by R D Ellison that the quote in reply #1 is taken from please?
The quote comes from the internet article at the link.
The book title is Gamble To Win Roulette (nolinks://nolinks.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0818406275/a4uat-20)
Thank you Giz.
The Spiders Kiss
Quote from: Spike! on May 15, 2010, 05:45:24 PM
The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions>>
Increasing accuracy increases edge, and if you don't have the edge, you don't consistantly win. Edge depends on one thing, bet selection. If you have the edge, progressions are a waste of time.
If you have the edge, like i actually have while playing roulette, progressions let you increase your earnings.
I claim i have taken the house edge to my side by foretelling what's more due "coz short term data".
Everyone can have the edge, its something its there, it doesnt belong to the casino but to those who can grasp it with a "calculated guess". If you can predict what's most improbable to show then you have an edge.
What i am not going to do is divulge how you can do it. Just say, learn to read carefully past spins, put an order to randomness using matrix. Trends are due coz the wheel can't avoid repeating itself frecuently. That's its fate and weakness.
And if you are smart enough you'll play inside bets followng rithms you learn to descifer. I just need to play 4 stright numbers at a time in the worst case. Frecuently i can do with 2. I play mild progression so as to increase my winnings as i said before. So put on the matter to uncode randomness. I tell you its possible.
Have a good time and be lucky,
Carlos.
Pd: Of course i dont win every spin, im not Merlin, ok?