"Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability THEORY, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, GAMBLING, science, and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events"
Its a theory, its not a law. Because its a theory, its open to interpretation. If you MathBoyz want me to keep arguing with you, just keep acting like its a law and you're the math police who are assigned to enforce it. You want me to prove what I say I do, when you can't even prove your faulty theory is correct. Get real..
Two big casinos, casino A and casino B. Both, of course, have a variety of games on each of which they have the edge.
Expectancy (math) says:
It is a certainty that the games will generate consistent outcomes for both casinos.
Spike says:
Probability/expectancy/whatever is only theory, it's not a law, it's open to interpretation. You mathboys (casinos) who rely on such "theories" keep acting like it's a "law", you are wrong. Expectancy? Hogwash! One or both of the casinos could be losing on the games consistently. You want me to prove what I say I do, when you can't even prove your faulty theory is correct. Get real..
Probability/expectancy/whatever is only theory, it's not a law, it's open to interpretation.>>>
The casinos make money because the vast vast majority of gamblers play within the expectancy! The casino doesn't care about the few that don't, they make no difference to their bottom line unless they get real greedy. Its not a law, its a theory. Admit it.
Quote from: Spike! on June 30, 2010, 04:20:14 AM
Its not a law, its a theory. Admit it.
You have a gambling problem that developed into a delusional disorder (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delusional_disorder). Admit it.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fnolinks.gamblinghelp.org%2Fmedia%2F.download_gallery%2F888-ADMIT-IT.jpg&hash=b54577a93e2d16932d6096dde7aa3f8843d03292)
A 'theory' in the scientific sense is quite different from its use in everyday speech, where it's usually meant to signify something speculative. In this case you can take it to mean a 'hypothesis' - a proposed explanation for an observed phenomena. A hypothesis may or may not be confirmed - more evidence is needed.
A 'theory' in the scientific sense is a model which explains observations and makes predictions. So we have, for example, the theory of evolution and relativity theory, which DO explain phenomena and make predictions very successfully. Such is the case with probability theory.
Just because it's open to interpretation doesn't mean it doesn't work. Anything is open to interpretation - that's not what 'theory' means.
Probability theory 'works'. There is scarcely an area of science which doesn't use it, not to mention reliability engineering and statistical quality control, which make possible the high standards in manufacturing on which our modern technological society depends.
Once again, Spike opens mouth, inserts ass!
Just because it's open to interpretation doesn't mean it doesn't work. >>
I never said it doesn't work, its just not foolproof. There are ways around it, but you don't know what those ways are so you just assume they don't exist. Making assumptions is the fools error.
Once again, Spike opens mouth, inserts ass!>>>
You mathboyz always have to get personal, its like you can't help yourselves. How dare anybody question your Royal Priesthood, they must be lower than dirt. LOL!
Nothing personal Spike. You ARE ignorant, just stating a fact... :ok:
Quote from: Bayes on June 30, 2010, 04:39:10 AM
Nothing personal Spike. You ARE ignorant, just stating a fact... :ok:
In what way? I'm not too ignorant to find a way to use past spins. You can't do that. So what does that make you, stupid? See how the name game goes? Not really worth playing, is it.
Quote from: Spike! on June 30, 2010, 04:32:23 AM
You mathboyz always have to get personal
Getting personal tends to be more the specialty of the guessers club.
Quote from: Bayes on June 30, 2010, 04:39:10 AM
Nothing personal Spike. You ARE ignorant, just stating a fact... :ok:
A fact that is increasingly substantiated proportionally to his post count.
Calling someone ignorant is not mud-slinging or name calling, why is it always about ego with you?
You have a gambling problem that developed into a delusional disorder. Admit it.
Exactly Spike this Morning pretented to the Psico clinic nurse that he swalowed his pink pill but he DIDN T!!!! :-[
So no he is in a state of psicedelia! :girl_wacko:
Don t worry it will pass....because when his is in this state doctors can imediatelly spot it ,because he is trying to convince also the other patient of the psico clinic that he can beat roulette. :rtfm:
So they are gathering all and they are screaming: "SPIKE SPIKE the Roulette KING!!!" :yahoo:
He also runs in the hospital halls sreaming "I can beat ROULETTE!!!!" :yahoo:
So after these indications the doctors imediatelly get the strong nurses to grab him and take him to his room . :angry2:
After that they are forcing him to take his pill... :aggressive:
The days that he is taking the pills he is NOT posting here :)
Hung on Spike help is coming! :thumbsup:
Quote from: Bayes on June 30, 2010, 04:54:17 AM
why is it always about ego with you?
And its not with you? Puleaze..... :lol:
Is that what you think? you think this is just an ego game?
It has to do with the TRUTH, and the fact that, as Herb said, ignorance has consequences.
Quote from: Bayes on June 30, 2010, 06:03:06 AM
Is that what you think? you think this is just an ego game?
It has to do with the TRUTH, and the fact that, as Herb said, ignorance has consequences.
Then start telling the truth. You have no proof that using past spins doesn't work, only theories and speculation that you pass off as undeniable truth.
past spins do help in this random game, but its down to judgment, prediction and experience in raising/lowering the unit bets during play. when to jump onto streaks and when to jump off. many players who play roulette for real on a regular basis will be far better at prodicting outcomes and smarter type bets to take advantage off.
easier said then done, I know. i belive it can be done. but only the individual who has the experience will be able to take advantage over the long run, as they have the holy grail inside them in there brain :-X not everone can see the patterns happening.
SOUNDS MAD I KNOW BUT, ITS TRUE.
mattjono
as they have the holy grail inside them in there brain>>>
Its called experience. Its called practice. There is no substitute for it. A newbie who sits down and plays roulette for the first time is not exactly equal to the guy who's been playing for 10 years, as the MathBoyz would have you believe. There is good bet selection, there is doing better than expectancy, don't listen to the gossipy old math ladies.
Spike,
How would you know? You admit that you're ignorant when it comes to math.
By your own admission, You don't comprehend the subject well enough to comment. :)
Spike you shouldn`t keep stating threads about something you obviously don`t understand.
Probability is not a law or a theory, it is something that simply IS. If your expectation in 37 spins is 18 reds and you get more than that, its a positive variance that can be calculated and vice versa. There is no law that says that you after X amount of spins is bound to have received the expectation. Which means that you could easyli have received more hits than what the expectation says. Mind you, If in 50.000 spins you have had 670 more hits that what the expectation says, you will still be at +-0 because you would also have encountered ~1340 zeros.
Any likelyhood of an event to take place can be calculated but its not telling you anything about when its gonna happen. But funny enough, when enough spins is involved somehow by magic, the events starts slowly to come closer to the expectation as the sample size grows.
No one will argue that you might have won a few times in the casino if you ever happened to actually go there, your biggest plonker was hanging on to statements like:
- 72% hit rate
- breaking even for 100s of spins (imagine how high the following hit rate should be to keep the 72%)
- practising 4 hours every day, travel 2 hours to the casino, watch 30 spins and bet 30 and go home with 150$. (what a life......)
and when challenged about the 72%, running like hell and calling the entire world population for math fanatics.
Quote from: Spike
Probability in Gambling is a Theory, NOT a Law
Spike, (Bayes explained this already) but this might help you:
QuoteQ: But Probability is just a theory, right?
A: No, it's a scientific theory. The statement that "probability is just a theory" is rooted in a deep misunderstanding of scientific thought. There are only theories in science. A scientific theory is testable, which means that it can be disproven with evidence. Existing scientific theories have not been disproven, therefore, they are generally accepted to be accurate, or as accurate as it is possible to be. Something that cannot be disproven is not a theory -- it's just a belief -- for example, my existence. In other words, theory is much better than belief -- belief which isn't based on anything provable.
The misunderstanding arises because there's a difference between a scientific theory, and the word "theory" as it is commonly used, to indicate something postulated, but not necessarily reality. Your theory that a flying spaghetti monster created the universe is not a scientific theory.
Probability is not a law or a theory, it is something that simply IS. >>
So now its neither a law or theory, its whatever you want it to be. Thats exactly what I always thought. I'll glaly show you every detail of how I play just as soon as you show me the math that says I CAN'T do it. Theres tons of math for everything else that shows you positively why you can't do certain things. Where's the math that says past spins can't be used to guess future outcomes? All you have is theory and speculation. And Herb repeating himself a thousand times.
Quote from: Spike! on June 30, 2010, 05:35:57 PM
I'll glaly show you every detail of how I play
No you won't. I know it, you know it, we all do.
I know you won't show any real proof of your claims, just talk about it. :)
Kelly,
Now we finally know what is meant by when is IS. ( William J. Clinton : when is IS? :clapping:)
Keep the party going.
Nathan Detroit
Quote from: Spike! on June 30, 2010, 05:35:57 PM
Probability is not a law or a theory, it is something that simply IS. >>
So now its neither a law or theory, its whatever you want it to be. Thats exactly what I always thought. I'll glaly show you every detail of how I play just as soon as you show me the math that says I CAN'T do it. Theres tons of math for everything else that shows you positively why you can't do certain things. Where's the math that says past spins can't be used to guess future outcomes? All you have is theory and speculation. And Herb repeating himself a thousand times.
I can't believe you guys still debate the same idea. You have been doing it for the past 5-6 years and you're still at the same point. You have not moved one bit from the starting line. I thought you were in it to make money. Apparently, some here prefer the discretionary aspects of the theory behind making a buck.
My next visit will be in 5 years just to see if you have progressed in your quest. My bet is you won't.
Quote from: potatochips on June 30, 2010, 06:38:55 PM
My next visit will be in 5 years just to see if you have progressed in your quest. My bet is you won't.
lol, I would have left, and a new generation of posters would have appeared, and Spike and company would be still at the same thing, posting the same stuff.
Quote from: Noble Savage on June 30, 2010, 05:47:52 PM
No you won't. I know it, you know it, we all do.
You show me the proof that I can't use past spins and I'll do what I said.
If I said I was going to jump off the roof and fly without help, you could prove with math from the Law of Gravity and Newtons Laws of Motion that I would 100% of the time fall to the ground.
Show me the math that proves I can't use past spins effectively. You can't and you know you can't.
Quote from: Spike! on June 30, 2010, 09:03:00 PMShow me the math that proves I can't use past spins effectively.
Testing extensively is the way to prove theories. I've been doing it for years. Unfortunately, they all fail in the long run.
QuoteShow me the math that proves I can't use past spins effectively. You can't and you know you can't.
We have. However, you have told us that you are too ignorant to comprehend it.
Quote from: Herb6 on June 30, 2010, 09:44:48 PM
We have. However, you have told us that you are too ignorant to comprehend it.
You have NOT showed the math that past spins CAN'T be used. There's only the theory of independent spins that you bring up ad nauseum. You have no math to back up your claims. You can prove past spins are independent, so you THINK they can't effectively be used for anything. You're wrong.
Again, how would you know? You're not a mathboy. You're blissfully ignorant.
Quote from: Herb6 on June 30, 2010, 11:10:06 PM
Again, how would you know? You're not a mathboy. You're blissfully ignorant.
LOL! You STILL don't show the math that says past spins won't work. There is no such math.