Yes, I know EACH spin is independant of each other, blah blah blah, I dont need the speach. My point being, the number of times you have read regarding past numbers meaning NOTHING. This misconception is usually from AP guys but there are sometimes others. In 37/38 spins, on average, there are 3 numbers with 3 hits on it. Sometimes 2 numbers, sometimes 4 numbers, whatever.
Lets say its the numbers 5, 17 and 34. I am looking for a YES or a NO to this question......try not to DRIFT from the question. Didn't those three numbers have to have two hits on them (within 37/38) BEFORE it had 3 hits? The number 5 is not going to magically jump from having ONE hit on it, then out of no where, it has 3 hits on it. My point being, if PAST numbers mean nothing, then HOW is it that we can gage that there will 2-4 numbers with 3 hits on them?
An example of a little contest we can have >> We'll track some numbers. Of course we know CHEATING may be involved with that, as usual. lol When we have 25 numbers recorded, I will pick 3 numbers that I think will have 3 hits on it by 38 (or 37) spins. *BUT* I also get to pick ANY 3 numbers for you, you dont get to choose your numbers. At the end of 38 numbers, we'll see who has the most numbers with 3 hits.
Who knows, I might not have any. Also, we'll do this for 30 groups of 38 numbers. At the end of the 30 groups, according to the slide ruler guys, it should be roughly 15/15. Maybe not exact but it should be close. Why? Because "the ball has no memory. All numbers are independant from one another, PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING". Ken
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fnolinks.thequoteblog.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2007%2F06%2Fhomer-simpson.jpg&hash=50aed7e47358df1e0db9316180c434f7533a0a31)
I think I just got a little dumber while reading your question.
To get 3 hits on a number, you need to get 2 first. Correct.
"then HOW is it that we can gage that there will 2-4 numbers with 3 hits on them?"
Its normal probability distribution. The same probability that applys to rolling a dice or taking a card from a 52 cards deck which is being reshuffled after each draw. Funny that it is always non math people that chases math problems.
:sarcastic: It was rhetorical goofball. Its funny how the math people never really want to answer a VALID question. (All Keyser has posted is a funny cartoon guy, that'll get ya far in life.) Ken
On a good day, Mr. J is at best, incoherent. :sarcastic:
@Keyser >> Thats now two posts (here :sarcastic:) without an answer, big shock! :thumbsup: Ken
You started your post by saying you don`t need the speach about independent trials, but its hard to explain probability with independent trials if one have to leave the main thing out. It would also be a mantra from the AP fraction which makes it invalid even though its simple high school probability.
To be honest, there were much truth in herbs post.
Thats cool, do you agree with me or not? I can re-ask the question again. lol Might as well, I'm re-asking it on every other board. :sarcastic: Ken
This is funny (on the other board). Now that I press and press the question, the answer is SLOWLY changing. NOW, SOME PAST NUMBERS DO have something to do with SOME FUTURE EVENTS. lol Had I asked this a week ago, the answer from the SAME people would of been, NO NUMBERS IN ANY MANNER have something to do with future events. Pure comedy. ;D Ken
Ken,
When you post, you tend to leave out important information. You really should only post when you're coherent and when you're willing to take the time to proof read what you've written.
On the other board, they can't really understand what you're saying. They're basically laughing at you as though you are a fool. You just don't realize it.
Thats 3 posts from you (here), still no answer. Also, I think you know me well enough....do I care Herb? I'm watching Survivor now with around 70 posts to reply to. lol I truely dont care, I have the BALLS to post whats on my mind, MOST do not. Ken
Are we suppose to respect you now? :sarcastic:
@Keyser >> (Now 4 posts, no answer) Do what you want bro, I gain nothing nor do I lose anything. Ken
Yeah i agree with you:
"Maybe not exact but it should be close. Why? Because "the ball has no memory. All numbers are independant from one another, PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING". Ken"
Here's my main issue Kelly. If someone says that past numbers have nothing to do with what might hit in the future, thats 100% fine, no problem. Then all of a sudden......"Wait Ken hang on man, there might be an exception to that". WTF? Out of the blue I hear (not from here) past numbers DO MEAN SOMETHING on future events under a particual condition. Again...WTF? It should be fair if I chose your 3 numbers for the 13 spins and I chose my own 3 numbers. How can I have an advantage? Its funny at the Wizards site, everyone there wants to fit in with each other. They would rather swallow their pride if it means fitting in better with the 'crew'. I should of asked the nay sayers (a week ago).....hey guys, is there ANY situation you can think of, where I have an advantage picking 3 numbers? MOST of the answers would of been the same.
No Ken, the ball has no memory etc. etc. I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful. How many methods have I posted in the past that I got slammed for even mentioning, tracking and looking at past events? Lots, is the answer. Past numbers, in a sense are helpful with future outcomes. People can not have it both ways. Ken
I have no clue what that exception might be. Phrases like conditional probability does NOT fit in under roulette because you are supposed to have some knowledge of an earlyer outcome that now has no chance of reappearing like if the ace of spades has been drawn and cannot again come into play. Just because number 5 came out last it doesn`t mean that it cannot appear again.
I don't know if we should attempt to enlighten Ken or if we should just leave him naive.
I'm a bit lost Kelly. Do you agree or disagree with me? >>> 30 groups of 38 numbers. After tracking 25 numbers, I will pick what 3 numbers I want to hopefully have 3 hits on it in the NEXT 13 spins. I will also pick YOUR 3 numbers as well for the next 13 spins, to see if they get 3 hits on them. Is this a FAIR challenge in your opinion? Ken
Now up to 5 posts from Herb/Keyser. Not answering, just trolling around. Do I hear 6? lol Will you answer the same question I asked Kelly or are you gonna wait for his answer first? Ken
In the random game of roulette, past spins don't matter a bit.
In the real game, on a real wheel, the placement of the previous number hit can matter.
In the real game, on a defective wheel, previous spins can indicate a potential problem with the gaming device via a goodness of fitness test like chi square.
However, in Ken's world past spins don't matter a bit.
Just so I got this in case I need to (and I will) QUOTE you in the future.....I'm not talking about defective wheels, so thats out. "the placement of the previous number hit can matter" >>> Ohhh, NOW it can matter? lol Do not ask me to search though hundreds of posts. How many damn times have I posted 'whatever' and you have said that PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING for future events? Are you saying that you *NEVER* one time, said that to me OR other method players? You are lying through your teeth Keyser/Herb. Chalk up another one...wants to have it both ways. This is how some of these guys operate. Their opinion CHANGES depending on the thread topic. Ken
1. First off, your question is so vague and incoherent that most people can't make sense of your question.
2. Secondly, the various answers possible are simply too complex for a new player like yourself to comprehend,
since you clearly don't grasp even basic probability or gambler's fallacy.
3. Most of us simply don't like you on the math forum because you act like a disrespectful street punk.
4. Basic logic eludes you.
This is Herbs way of dodging questions....all smoke and mirrors. The question was asked PERFECTLY multiple times, nothing vague about it, nice try skippy. You just answered it a few minutes ago so does that mean you STILL dont understand it or did you change your mind again? lol People HATE the questions when I CORNER them. I catch them off guard. I catch them being inconsistent, like yourself as an example. You never answered my question >> How many damn times have I posted 'whatever' and you have said that PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING for future events? Are you saying that you *NEVER* one time, said that to me OR other method players? <<<< Simple question Herb.
Its funny how some will only debate the people they dont like, they pick and choose, like Herb does. This is from boymimbo (Wizards site) >> "it's true. In roulette, past performance has nothing to do with future results. What science or mathematics proves that it does?
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38."
Another member, MathExtremist ALSO agrees with this. I do not but thats not my question. My question is.....of all the posters that are slamming me there, how come NOT ONE (Herb included) are telling MathExtremist and boymimbo they are wrong? Not one post from others. lol Hmm. Thats your new question Herb (he won't answer it) how come I see no posts from you directed towards these two other members, ONLY ME? A little bias are we? I think I now understand why people use different user names. They can change their views as many times as they want, just like a coward would do. Ken
Well, im lost too. What is the exact question, no emballage so to speak.
OMG, theme of the day, hang on.....
@Kelly >> 30 groups of 38 numbers. After tracking 25 numbers, I will pick what 3 numbers I want to hopefully have 3 hits on it in the NEXT 13 spins. I will also pick YOUR 3 numbers as well for the next 13 spins, to see if they get 3 hits on them. Is this a FAIR challenge in your opinion? If no, why? We would do the challenge 30 times. At the end, would it be around the same in terms of which set of numbers have MORE hits on them? The numbers I choose for you OR my chosen numbers? Ken
Fair enough, in such a small sample we are not likely to end up 15/15 though. But in the long run, yes.
It does not have to be 15/15 exact. 13/17 is close enough. What would the long run be? Do you agree with this Herb? He usually waits FIRST to see what you posted. Kelly....if you dont think it would be 15/15 (or even 13/17), why? Would I have an ADVANTAGE over you because I picked your 3 numbers? If yes, how can that be? Ken
My numbers would be 1, 2, 3. The reason we probably wouldn`t break even is because there are fluctations in the way our chosen numbers hit. I might be the luckyiest for the 30 runs, but it might as well be you. At some point we will start to break even. Im not sure how many spins we would need as we would only be guessiong for 12 trials X 30 runs. which is 360 spins. Anything could basicly happen.
30 x 38 = 1,140 would be the total number of spins.
"My numbers would be 1, 2, 3" >>> (?) Not unless I say so, I choose your numbers for the challenge. Basically it comes down to this.... after the 25 spins, I would choose 3 numbers with 2 hits on them as part of my 3. I would choose 3 numbers with no hits on them as part of YOUR 3. I feel I would have the advantage over a 30 group test. Some say they agree with me. Some say they dont. The thing that kills me, some that agree with me (an advantage) ALSO say that past numbers mean nothing for future events. They are on both sides of the fence. Ken
Fair enough, try it out. The settings are described and you can basicly do it alone. There will be situations where you will have both more or less than 3 numbers, if you can set an MO for these situations, its just a matter of doing it. To avoid selected permanenzes, try pick the first daily 37 numbers of a specific table of a specific month, say June, at casino Wiesbaden where all numbers can be verified. But like i said, anything can happen. If June comes out in your favour, try July afterwards and don`t be afraid to go in details in case you have 1 day with 12 hits or 1 day with 0 hits. Its fluctations like that that can scew the picture short term.
This is basically how everyone feels about Mr. JJJ, aka KJ smooth, aka Mr J (Ken) on the Wizardofvegasforum.
QuoteI'm glad you get your amusements here. I can no longer tell whose speaking, what your point is, or where you are going. Your ability to communicate clearly is lacking, as is your ability to read communications that have repeatedly and clearly pointed out your logical fallacies. You cherry pick statements with no attribution, change tack and fail to pose a clean coherent argument, and then make ad homininem attacks instead of answering your critics. Whenever someone gives you an answer you don't like, you ignore it, or type "lol" as if it means anything useful.
In short, you are pointless waste of time to discuss this with, and your making a great troll, whether you know it or not. I'd prefer to debate politics with the right of the Republican party than try and discuss a subject in which you show a laughable lack of even the most basic knowledge of. At least in politics there is are shades of grey in the answer.
You're wasting your time, time you could be testing new roulette methods or even actually widening your wallet at the casino.
(edited for bad grammar and spelling mistooks (sic))
Now at 6 posts from Herb/Snowman/Keyser. Do I hear 7? :sarcastic: Will you answer any of my questions from this thread? Ken
its pure chance. you throw the ball it will hit all places on the wheel .sometimes it will hit the same place no mystery
take it from me past numbers have no bearing on where the ball will land. it is more unlikely to land in the same place twice. in a row. when you play roulette. you like to think the past numbers have a meaning. i thionk no19 haas played no12 should follow. i win . now i am convinced there is some meaning in the past results. go to the casino only play the 19 when 12 plays or vice versa.will you come home a winner, try it out with your own numbers.good luck.
I'm making one (copy/paste) statement so I dont have to re-do it on the other 7 boards. lol Yes, I do think that past numbers CAN assist us in future betting. All of us may not have the same definition of 'future'. It could mean 3 spins later or maybe 200 spins later, I dont know. Anyways, a person can not have BOTH of these views. If you think you do, let me know.
A) Past numbers mean NOTHING, they are of NO USE. Even those first 25 spins like I mentioned for the challenge. The past means NOTHING !!
B) It is an unfair challenge Ken. After those first 25 spins, I pick MY 3 numbers for 13 spins (2 hits on them) and I pick YOUR 3 numbers (0 hits on them) for 13 spins (flat betting). A trial of 30 times, 38 numbers per.
(Sidenote: I am not talking about any form of a bias wheel, cough)
You can pick either 'A' or 'B'..... Not both and not 'C'. Sorry if this bothers some people, I won't lose sleep over it. My point of all this? I have posted that answer but I'll do it again. Many, many posters have bickered and complained regarding using past numbers. Thats cool with me, I have ZERO issue with that unless.....you ALSO choose 'B'. At least I stay consistent, I dont change my answer after viewing OTHER answers first, just so I fit in with the crew.
At least I have the balls to post something, knowing AHEAD OF TIME, will get sour posts in return. Lets be honest, are there some posters that feel there are different versions of 'past numbers'? If so, do tell. Would someone say, those first 25 spins are NOT part of the 'past' but maybe 150 spins ago, that is the 'past'? Just curious. Ken
Sometime soon, Herb will reply...."Thats Ken, he's like an apple that made us all sad". (Something real witty from the guy :sarcastic:) Ken
Past numbers do not, never have, and never will influence future numbers – no way - period!
They do however influence where every player, almost to a man, places their next bet.
There is no denying it. Whether you use VB, situational awareness, mechanical systems, strategic methods, educated guessing, precognition, or even random choices, your next bet will be influenced by the preceding results for the wheel you are presently playing.
In brief this can result in a period of winning, or a period of losing. Accurately predicting whether or not the next period (whatever that is for you) will be one of winning or one of losing is the "Golden Goose" of roulette.
Forget the Holy Grail, give me the Golden Goose! :D
I'll put you down as 'A' answer for Bombus. At least you answered, I'll take it. Its like pulling teeth. Ken
Quote from: bombus on September 18, 2010, 06:59:50 AM
In brief this can result in a period of winning, or a period of losing. Accurately predicting whether or not the next period (whatever that is for you) will be one of winning or one of losing is the "Golden Goose" of roulette.
Forget the Holy Grail, give me the Golden Goose! :D
That's logical. Funny, all losing periods include many lost bets. Stands to reason that you need to deal with that some how.
Many years ago, I did a lot of research trying to find a way to exploit hot numbers and the law of the third. It certainly had me going around in circles. One thing this testing proved is how unreliable anything is in roulette.
Mr J, you can't guarantee in any sample of 37/38 spins that any number will appear 3 times. There are many times when you will get a lot of numbers just appearing twice. The problem with chasing them is twofold, the bets escalate quickly with the more numbers you are forced to play and the bet itself becomes impractical to play because of the time constraints in placing a bet.
It seems to me that you are basing this whole debate on something which you can't guarantee will happen in any 37/38 spins. Of course it is logical to say that for a number to hit 3 times, it must have appeared twice before, but I don't see how you can use any of this information to gain any kind of edge.
"Mr J, you can't guarantee in any sample of 37/38 spins that any number will appear 3 times" >>> Yep, I know. This question has nothing to do with creating a method. I am referring to 30 groups of 38, not just one group. If you had to pick A or B John Gold, which one? Ken
Having spent time thinking about it, put me down for an A.
Thank you sir, much appreciated. I do have an announcement >>> This thread question by FAR, is one of the best I have ever come up with and there have been many. I have a bunch of As, a bunch of Bs, a couple who think they can have both and MANY that will not attach their name to an answer for whatever reason (multiple message boards) Ken
rdw4potus (Wizards site, page 12)has stated >>>
"If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit".
<<< He and OTHERS have stated this, no problem. They are saying, regardless of the first 25 spins, NO NUMBER FOR ANY REASON, has a more likely chance of hitting in those next 13 spins. For those that disagree (thats the majority), why have those posters not addressed those claims? They only go straight to MY posts to slam? Hmmm, interesting. Ken
Quote from: Mr J link=topic=16986. msg120566#msg120566 date=1285199873
regardless of the first 25 spins, NO NUMBER FOR ANY REASON, has a more likely chance of hitting in those next 13 spins.
You're only addressing HALF the problem here Ken.
What about the role 'future' spins have on 'events'.
Why are YOU ignoring the obvious paradox. . ?
Why the conspiracy of silence. . ?