VLS Roulette Forum

I have put together a means of betting that overcomes the house advantage (even on American Roulette, but I don't see why you would give up the extra profits) in a very understandable way.    It can be explained in a way that will please the math guys, can be played flat or with a progression, and will work with many different methods of playing dozens.    It has some elements that will appeal to believers in the gambler's fallacy, but it is based squarely in the notion that wheels have no memory, and that spins are, therefore, completely random. 

I will not be explaining the actual bet selection method I use because it is nothing but noise that distracts from the elegance of making bets that have a positive expectancy.    I have discussed this betting mechanism with several contributors whom you would all recognize, with almost universal interest (the only dissenter can be explained away by mentioning a language barrier - it also lead to my decision to ignore the actual bet selection I use because this individual couldn't get past the simplistic method I have been using). 

Right here, I need to take a second to give full credit to two individuals - Richard, of Signum fame, and ommanipadmihum who made a brilliant leap in applying Signum to the dozens.    Both of their postings eventually directed me to where I am happy to find myself in my evolution as a winning roulette player. 

For any new readers who might not be familiar with the Signum system, it is a very clever way of interpreting short-term trends to help predict the next spin result on an EC bet.    Ommanipadmihum realized that the system could work on the dozens by turning the dozens bets into an EC bet, expecting movement among dozens from the last spin to the next as being either to the left or to the right.    Numerous postings documented the great results that came from applying EC methods but gaining 2-1 rewards.    The trip up came when the dozens didn't move to the left or to the right, but repeated.    Some suggested the best way was to start putting a unit on the repeating dozen after a series of repeats. 

Following is my improvement on the staking method that was discussed, as well as a brief mathematical explanation of how this betting method beats the house advantage over the long term:

Note:  I will not expound on what methodology you should use to determine expected L-R values.    You can use a follow-the-last, opposite-of-last, Signum, Lww, or whatever other system you choose to determine if your expectation is for the dozen to move left or right.    For the sake of this example, I have determined that the last spin fell in the 2nd dozen and I expect the next spin will move to the left into the 1st dozen. 

Since I expect the next bet to be in the 1st dozen, I place one unit there.    I place another unit on the 2nd dozen as the last dozen to have spun.    In the past, we have assumed that the house advantage would rule in such a bet because 13/37 would be (-2) and 24/37 would be (+1), resulting in -2 units per every 37 spins on average.    If we were to leave the bets on these two dozens, that is exactly what would occur.    This is where my betting method diverges from the rest.    This system minimizes losses, locks in profits, and allows the winning to run on all at the same time. 

If the spin gives us a result in the 1st dozen, we would count this as a win (W) and take our money off of the table.    If the spin gives us a result in the 3rd dozen, we would count this as a loss (L) and our money would be taken off the table anyway.    However, as long as the 2nd dozen might continue to repeat (R), we will duplicate our bet exactly.    This is the entirety of the Eggleston Betting system.    Stop with a win, stop with a loss, keep winning with repeats.    Then wait for whatever your next trigger is and begin again. 

Why does this work?  If we get a win from the 1st dozen, we are (+1), meaning (+12) out of 37 spins on average.    With a spin of 0 or the 3rd dozen, we are (-2), meaning (-26) out of 37 spins on average.    Excluding the 2nd dozen results, we are currently (-14) in 37 spins.    That means we would need the results from the 2nd dozen to average (+1.  1667) per spin to overcome the house advantage (-14 offset over 12 spins out of 37 where we expect 2nd dozen). 

What can we expect from typical returns from the 2nd dozen?  Since we won (+1) unit already with a repeat in the 2nd dozen, our next totally random spin has 1/12/12/12 out of 37 spins likelihood of hitting each position on the table again.    Ignoring the 0 here (just for the sake of easing the calculations), rather than the +1/+1/-2 results we would expect from covering 2 dozens, our new expectations are +2/+2/-1, or a grand total of +3.    Divided by the three possible outcomes, the average spin at this level is +1, exactly matching our usual expectations of the +1/+1/-2 2-dozen bet payouts.   

However, of these spins, roughly one third will result in yet another spin of the 2nd dozen, taking the same considerations as above to a new expected +3/+3/0, or +2 average.    Already, at this point, we are into positive expectancy territory.    Of the 12/37 spins that take us to the 2nd layer of payout expectations, approximately 4 spins (1/3 of 12) will go to a 3rd layer of payouts.    Another 1+ (4/3) will go to the 4th layer of payouts, +4/+4/+1, or +3 average.    Extrapolated out to these higher layers, the 12 spins in the 2nd dozen will pay approximately (8x+1, 3x+2, and 1x+3, or a total of 17).    Remember that we only needed to overcome -14 from the other 25 spins, giving us an expectation of +3 every 37 spins, more than +.  08 units on every spin on average.    Don't lose sight that over long periods, repeats can extend into higher level of payouts on those incredibly fun streaks that we have all seen where we hit 6, 7, 8, or more in the same dozen. 

The benefit to this system only comes when we follow the rules which require we stop betting after a win or a loss until a new trigger begins a new bet begins. 

Some advantages of this system:

• It can be played with a flat bet or with a progression
  It stays out of the way of prolonged series of results in one direction or the other
  Even when our anticipated direction of movement is wrong, we may still end up being winners
  It features advantages of both EC and 2-1 bets
  It overcomes the house advantage

I am anxious to hear your reactions to this system.    What I have received so far has been very supportive, but if you see somewhere that it can be improved, by all means let me know.    I am also keen to hear how people may apply this to different systems they already play, just with the improved odds of profiting. 

anychance you could explain again in a shorter version?

i kind of got lost, i think i understand but would like to see examples, though it sounds good

I have attached a 40-spin series that ends with a net of +3 units, just slightly off my expected winnings of +3. xxx in 37 spins.   It was hurt in the middle by the brutal 2-3-2 chops but recovered.   Had I been playing my system, the net would have been +10, although I do use a negative progression.   Playing same as last is obviously a wildly simplistic betting method, but this should demonstrate the methodology and thoughts behind the system.

Hi colbster, I understand the idea and will start my own testing on 'fun play' online. Do you anticipate it to work equally well with online live wheels, RNG and land based casinos?

As a personal choice, I would like to cover the Zero on the wheel, do you think this would have a negative or positive impact on things. For example, instead of 1 unit on 1st dozen and 1 unit on 2nd dozen, how about 1 on Zero and 3 on 1st dozen and 3 on 2nd dozen? Thanks for sharing the system.

Bets on 0 have a truly negative expectation that will eventually harm your profitability.   This betting system overcomes the house advantage, negating the need to cover the 0.   Basically, I see the 0 spins (when they occur while you are actively betting - often they pass without any harm to you during periods where you are not betting) as a tax on your winnings.   I have already figured the 0 into my calculations, but have an expectation of over +3 units during a 37-spin cycle.

Since you are covering 24 numbers on this bet, you have a good chance of hitting the winners.   I lose occasionally, but I more than cover with the wins.   As I mentioned in my previous post, I use a progression that will ultimately hit the wall and fail.   I play RNG almost exclusively because we have no live casinos anywhere near where I am.   Recently, I did have the opportunity to play on a casino boat and faired well, winning 48 units in just under 2 hours.   Unfortunately, because of the low table limits and my progression, I was forced to play for $1 chips, but it was cool to see that it performed just as well on a live wheel as online casinos.   I recently made the switch from play testing to low-stakes real money testing, and the system has held up admirably.

Ok I'll test it and see how it goes. What do you expect the win/lose ratio to be? You admitted you sometimes lose with this way of playing, but what has your experience been so far? For everytime you lose how many do you usually win?

Therein lies the problem with my explaining the system.   I want to focus on the odds aspect of the bet without tainting it with results that come from my personal betting choices.   Just based on the strict math considerations, you should win better than 3 units on a perfect 1-12-12-12 breakdown from a 37 spin cycle.   That is over +. 08 units per spin.   In terms of win/loss, 13 out of 37 will lose, 12 out of 37 will win, and 12 out of 37 will repeat at least once.

The reason I am so hesitant to give my actual methodology is because my betting relies heavily on both the gamblers fallacy and a modified martingale progression.   Because both concepts get so many people fired up, I am afraid that my discovery will be overshadowed by the back-and-forth bickering.

As long as you use an EC strategy to predict direction of movement between dozens, take your money off the table after wins and losses (leaving it on just during repeats), and wait for a new trigger, this system will work for you.

Best of luck!

Do you always play for a certain amount of time or spins? Do you play 37 spins then stop. Do you have a win or loss stop? Thanks

p.s. I didn't bicker lol Others may perhaps do but I don't :)

My sessions typically last about 100-150 spins.   With my betting method, I use a win goal and a stop loss.   My progression has a built in mechanism that forces me to evaluate my situation frequently.   I find that a perfect 1-12-12-12 cycle never occurs, so spreading it out for longer periods has allowed the laws of statistics to work to my advantage.

So to make sure I am betting right, if you win you stop, if you lose you stop, and if you repeat you keep on going?

And you are always betting on two dozens, the one that has just hit and one to the left or right?

I take it if you use progression you have to apply the progression to both dozens equally? You cannot add a higher progression to one dozen than the other?

I played briefly using flat betting and very quickly got up to +10 profit with one pound chips, but then yo yo'd up and down between +2 and +8 for quite a while. Was always in profit though  :thumbsup:

I can see what you mean about it being contained. Would have to have a run of very bad luck to be deep in the negative. Does a win target of 20% and stop loss of 25% seem reasonable for a BR of 40?

You have a great handle on all of this.   Yes, win and loss=stop, repeats=keep going.   You always play 2 dozens: the last spun and either the left or right based on your expectations.   Apply progressions evenly to the 2 dozens (Note: with progression, you have the possiblity of a win that ends with you losing chips.   This happens after several chops followed by a win without a single repeat spin).   My personal system uses a BR of 300 with win target of 50+, stop loss at 100 (or sooner depending on what my progression notes tell me).   I have only ever lost 3 sessions, all under 100 chips.   I have won 60+ sessions, averaging 50-55 chips.   So far, my system has been wildly profitable, but I'm not sure that it is cleaned up enough to share my methodology.   My real emphasis was sharing the bet math, which I consider a totally revolutionary arrangement in roulette.

Well it seems promising and even although maths is not my strong point it kind of makes sense to me and there is a strong possibility, in my opinion, that you could be on to a long term winner.

Only further testing will tell but I think it makes sense. Hopefully regular posters on the forum will contribute as well and give their opinion. No system is ever a hg because every time one sits down at a roulette table there is never a guaranteed win, but if a strategy produces much more profit than loss long term then in my eyes it is as good as a hg. Thanks for sharing and hopefully lots of testing by many will show this to be a winner.

Thanks

What progression do you use? I have been playing using flat betting and have reached my target everytime, but it can be slow going eg win 3 in a row (+3), then lose 1(-2), then win 2 (+2) then lose 1(-2) then win 4(+4) then lose 1(-2) etc.

What is your progression for an BR of 300 and would you use a different progression for a BR of 40? I assume the progression doesn't always finish with a profit.

I wont question the progression or say whether I think it will work or not, I'll just use it 'as is' and see how I do with it. Thanks.

Thanks for your posts Colbster.  I have to say I don't understand why betting a left/right trend to continue should work, although maybe that part is arbitrary and it's the sticking with repeats that beats the house edge.  In any case, I understand what you're doing and I'll test it out on some live spins I've got.  I'm really only looking for something to be able to bet every 5 spins to keep me logged on to the live wheel that I play while I wait for my (very rare) trigger; this looks better than betting on red/black/0/00, which gets expensive pretty fast.  Thanks again.

Sam

You are correct that the bet selection is very arbitrary to this system.    That is why I chose not to mention it at all in the beginning.   Any EC system should give you playable spins that have the same chances of winning.   There actually is one advantage of my system of playing new directions to repeat.   If you consider a 1->2 shift, a move to the right, we would bet a repeat to the right.   This would result in a bet on 2nd and 3rd dozens (last spun and next dozen to the right).   Notice that these are the hottest and coldest dozens on the table right now.   I buy the random theory of spins, but hottest and longest sleeping figure prominently in MANY systems.   If I am wrong about the randomness, this system has both methods already taken care of for me.    :dance1:

Good point.  And I'm just going to come right out and say that I find gambler's fallacy to be a valuable working hypothesis, but hey, I don't really even believe in germ theory, so you can all just chalk me up as another wingnut on the forum.

I think I have finally worked out what I have been doing wrong. Do you have to follow the triggers L R L R L R exactly?

What I had been doing was,

eg free spin and out comes 3rd dozen

free spin out comes 2nd dozen (movement left)

bet 1 on 2nd dozen and 1 on 1st dozen

Out comes 1st dozen (win)

Remove all chips and free spin

Out comes 3rd dozen (movement left)

What I had been doing is betting 1 on 3rd dozen and 1 on 1st dozen because of the movement left trigger, but this is wrong and I have to wait for a movement right trigger? Is that right? It has to be L R L R and cannot be L L R L?

Thanks

@ col1879,

remember this bit?

Quote from: colbster on January 18, 2011, 11:17:21 PM
Note:  I will not expound on what methodology you should use to determine expected L-R values.    You can use a follow-the-last, opposite-of-last, Signum, Lww, or whatever other system you choose to determine if your expectation is for the dozen to move left or right.    For the sake of this example, I have determined that the last spin fell in the 2nd dozen and I expect the next spin will move to the left into the 1st dozen. 

:good:

right, good luck with that, you may not be able to predict the ball future but you as shore as hell can see the past events lol

just a thought

I remembered it, I just never understood it. Too many unfamiliar words lol

OK, I've hit some bad numbers (not too bad) and I want to make sure I'm doing this right.  Colbster, could you check these?

28
20
31L
9W
5
12
13
25
24
6W
24
00L
20W
9L
29W
32
15
28
9W
8
5
2
19
13
21
10
23L
8L
13L
5L
8W
24L
7L
00L
28W
4
11W
21W
31
33
28
33
00
7
13
6
2W
12W
26W
7
2W
33L
15W
27
10W
23
13
11
4W
18L
2L
6W
11W
26W
10
1W
14W
12
10W
36W
28
3
10W
7W
14W
15
17
17
23
18
14
00
31
22
26L
00L
3W
28
3L
23W

28 wins, 16 losses   total -4 units
I guess it would be +2 without the American 00.

That was a mildly disappointing session.  I counted -6 units flat betting.  This was only 90 spins, a relatively short session, during which you don't have time to really recover much when it turns against you.  It was also a 0/00 board which makes it more likely that you will experience these streaks from time to time, although it will show a mild advantage over even the American table.  I would be shocked if there was not a full recovery after a continuation of spins, as it already appeared to be recovering from an earlier drawdown that reached -15.

Here is a side note: Using my progression on the exact same spins, I was +34 spins, nearly +.40 units per spin.  You might give the progression consideration, as it is mild compared to many.

After a 0 or 00 hits are you not supposed to do at least 2 free spins before resuming betting? I noticed you bet twice right after the 00 hit.

You are correct about spinning after the 0/00.  The first spin is a tracking spin, as is the 2nd spin following a 0.  If there is movement from the 1st to the 2nd spin following a 0, that is the trigger for your next bet.  You cannot spin for at least 2 spins after a 0/00.

Oh, I just ignored the zeros and continued what I was doing already.  Oops.

Sam, do you always go L R L R L R with the triggers?

so far, yes.

If I were to run a progression, 1,3,9,27,54, etc, which is what I think you mean by a martingale, I would only start betting after a loss; otherwise it could crash way too fast.  The safest way would be to program a bot to only bet after 2 or 3 virtual progression losses.  But if this system really does win flat-betting (I'm not convinced yet) then it's a holy grail and it doesn't matter anyway; the bot could just flat bet all day and the money would roll in.

Sam

I do not use the 2-dozens martingale because it does get big to quickly.  I use the usual 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 progression, despite it being two dozens.  If you win the higher levels after strict chops, you can lose some units in the progression, but that is infrequent.  On the other hand, you win units after losses just as often because you have a good streak of repeats along the way.

That sounds good.  It probably has the same effect as using a fibonacci.  You could even go forward one step on a loss, back two on a win, so if you win in the higher levels you will recoup your losses faster.

I just saw your PM.  Feel kind of silly having spouted all these progression ideas; your two column 15 step martingale is in a league of its own.  Surviving 15 chops with such a low stop/loss, it can't be beat.  I have to say, between this and John Gold this is a very exciting time on the forum.

Sam

colbster,

To summarize the decision of betting and its move is it OK to assume the following:

From dozen 1 to dozen 2 movement is R(Right) bet on (2,3)
From dozen 2 to dozen 3 movement is R(Right) bet on (3,1)
From dozen 3 to dozen 1 movement is R(Right) bet on (1,2)


From dozen 1 to dozen 3 movement is L(Left) bet on (3,2)
From dozen 3 to dozen 2 movement is L(Left) bet on (2,1)
From dozen 2 to dozen 1 movement is L(Left) bet on (1,3)

Pros & Cons for the betting:

I repeated the bets but it lead me to go thru the progression sooner. So once you win, perhaps you are correct we should track the dozen.

What's your taken.

Regard,

John

Your summary is correct concerning the directions.  Any amount of repeats will have good runs and bad runs.  Some will win, some will lose.  I stick with the stats that suggest that there are three times as many doubles as triples and three times as many triples as quads.  That being the case, you are more likely to have your wins turn into losses by continuing to chase.  Take your money off the table and walk away a winner - you have plenty of time to make a mint!

What is a good amount of money to leave the table +50?

Stop/loss -100?

I know it's all about the Bankroll and Money Management. Any statement of direction in terms of leaving the table as it relates to your system?

Thanks,

John

I have two situations when I take a loss.  The first is when I bust out at level 64.  The second is when I have won at the 64 level a couple of times in a session, but because of the chops preceding the wins, I am still down units because of no repeats appearing during the progression.  This accounted for both of my first two losses - wins that ended with me down.  I suffered my worst-case scenario loss yesterday which was considerably more than 100 units.  It happened after busting out at level 64.  I have, however, gone from down at level 32 to comfortably up (more than +50) after repeats of the 64, so I am comfortable with this choice.  You might feel more comfortable stopping with a loss of 32 to reduce damage to your bankroll, but my experienc is that this is actually revenue-neutral in the long run.

I play with a session bankroll of 300 units.  Using the 50/50 money management method, I am working to build up additional bankrolls with my profits.  I believe that 3 backup bankrolls will be sufficient for all eventualities.  When I opened up my account for real money, I couldn't and didn't want to risk a great deal of money.  I started with just 40 euros, playing 0.1 euro units.  At this level, I have grown my bankroll to a little over 120 euros in about 10 days.  At 150, I will increase bets to 0.2 (3x30 backup bankrolls plus main bankroll of 60, which is 300x.2).  I will play this until 330, when I will move to 0.5 units (3x60 backup bankrolls plus main bankroll of 150, which is 300x.5).  My final move up, dictated by table limits, will be at 750, moving to 1 euro chips.  My plan then is to grow my online account to a point where I can take cash to the larger tables in Vegas to earn some "big" returns and enjoy my success.

Like all systems, there are occasional down patches in mine.  I knew that at the outset and it does not worry me.  I have quickly recovered from every one of my few losses, and my returns are very consistent.  I have adjusted my status on this program from "work-in-progress" to "great system that will allow me to retire before I am 38".  I know that all systems have knee-jerk skeptics, but I am personally convinced that this is my long-term winner.  Others testing this system have privately confirmed their success as well, with minor modifications that they prefer in their own play methods.

Hi all.
Great to read all of this.
But i don't understand everything.  Englisch is not my native tongue so i'm missing some parts.  Till now it looks a bit like:
Phase 1.  Collect underpants.
Phase 2. ?
Phase 3.  Profit.

So i hope someone can help me out a bit.

"Since I expect the next bet to be in the 1st dozen, I place one unit there.  I place another unit on the 2nd dozen as the last dozen to have spun.   If the spin gives us a result in the 1st dozen, we would count this as a win (W) and take our money off of the table. "

And then?  Spinning to find a new trigger? And is the trigger the first repeat that comes up?

"However, as long as the 2nd dozen might continue to repeat (R), we will duplicate our bet exactly. "

But do i duplicate, in this case, in both 1st and second dozen? And do i keep betting progressive on the 1st and 2nd dozen till it won't drop in the 2nd dozen?

And is the profit, in this case, if the 2nd dozen drops a couple of times in a row and you quit after a couple of repeats? Then start over till you have your goal for the day?

Thanks.

Quote from: colbster link=topic=17692. msg127782#msg127782 date=1296830617
I play with a session bankroll of 300 units.   Using the 50/50 money management method, I am working to build up additional bankrolls with my profits.   I believe that 3 backup bankrolls will be sufficient for all eventualities.   When I opened up my account for real money, I couldn't and didn't want to risk a great deal of money.   I started with just 40 euros, playing 0. 1 euro units.   At this level, I have grown my bankroll to a little over 120 euros in about 10 days.   At 150, I will increase bets to 0. 2 (3x30 backup bankrolls plus main bankroll of 60, which is 300x. 2).   I will play this until 330, when I will move to 0. 5 units (3x60 backup bankrolls plus main bankroll of 150, which is 300x. 5).   My final move up, dictated by table limits, will be at 750, moving to 1 euro chips.  

You say you almost exclusively play rng.  Then i hope the moment comes soon were you play for 0,50 and 1 euro chips.  Even if i don't understand all of what your saying i know for sure it works if you win on those bets.  But i'm affraid the rng comes after you at that time.  I tried lot's of 'systems' and always win in the beginning or if i play 1c and 10c bets.  Even complete nonsense 'systems's work.  But after a while or after i bet with higher bets the quicker i lost no matter what i tried.  I hope you won't have the same but i truly believe rng is rigged.  It's not random and it reacts to your betting.  And i'm not saying 8 reds in a row that's cheating.
But if a dozen don't come for more then 24 spins then i think there's something fishy.  If 9 reds, zero, 9 reds drop i think it's funny. . . . if this happens 3 times in 2 hours then i think there's something fishy.  These things only happens at rng and it happens every day.  And the straw that broke my camels back was number 22 drops 7 times in 14 spins.

Quote from: harald on February 04, 2011, 04:07:52 PM
Hi all.
Great to read all of this.
But I don't understand everything.  Englisch is not my native tongue so I'm missing some parts.  Till now it looks a bit like:
Phase 1.  Collect underpants.
Thanks.

I have got to say that is one of the funniest things I've seen in a long long time.  What is it you are trying yo say here?

Sam

Harald,
   Study the link at the bottom of post #3.  That should answer most of your questions.

   By the way, I am totally with Harald on the RNG thing, don't trust them a bit.

   Alright, I'm gonna go collect underpants and make some big bucks!

Sam

Quote from: harald on February 04, 2011, 04:07:52 PM
Hi all.
Great to read all of this.
But I don't understand everything.  Englisch is not my native tongue so I'm missing some parts.  Till now it looks a bit like:
Phase 1.  Collect underpants.
Phase 2. ?
Phase 3.  Profit.

So I hope someone can help me out a bit.

"Since I expect the next bet to be in the 1st dozen, I place one unit there.  I place another unit on the 2nd dozen as the last dozen to have spun.   If the spin gives us a result in the 1st dozen, we would count this as a win (W) and take our money off of the table. "

And then?  Spinning to find a new trigger? And is the trigger the first repeat that comes up? Assumig you are using Colbster's betting method, the new trigger is when the direction shifts.  I fyou lost because of a direction shift, then bet the new direction; if you won then spin until a new direction, if a 0 hits, then wait for a new set of spins with a new direction.

"However, as long as the 2nd dozen might continue to repeat (R), we will duplicate our bet exactly. "

But do I duplicate, in this case, in both 1st and second dozen? yesAnd do I keep betting progressive on the 1st and 2nd dozen till it won't drop in the 2nd dozen? no, only progress if you lose

And is the profit, in this case, if the 2nd dozen drops a couple of times in a row and you quit after a couple of repeats? Then start over till you have your goal for the day?keep betting until a win (1st dozen) or a loss (3rd dozen)

Thanks.

Thanks Sam for trying to help.   

I think I see the light but I don't see the path to the light.   .   .   .   .   yet
There's 2 things that makes this hard to figure out.   .   .   .   and that is the progressive side and the new trigger.   

"However, as long as the 2nd dozen might continue to repeat (R), we will duplicate our bet exactly.   "

I thought this was the progressive part.   .   .   like anti-martingale.   .   .   .   you win then you double.   .   .   but I did calculating and calculating and it didn't make any sense.   
Now Sam tells me you go progressive if you lose.    But I don't know how because:

"This is the entirety of the Eggleston Betting system.       Stop with a win, stop with a loss, keep winning with repeats.       Then wait for whatever your next trigger is and begin again.   "

It clearly says stop with a loss.    So what do I bet progressive on? The next bet?.   .   .   and keep betting progressive till a win?

Also I see people talking about spinning the wheel till you have a movement.   .   .   but besides the zero and the repeat there's always a movement right away.    So I think after a win or loss you spin till you have the new movement?


Please take my hand and talk to me slow.   .   .   just pretend I'm from Canada or Belgium  ???

There's a (L), (M) and (H) dozen.   

Repeat:
I spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
So from L to M is movement right so I bet 1$ on M and H.   
M is the repeat and H is the win.   
Now 21(M) drops so I repeat the bet.   .   .   so again 1$ on M and H.    And I repeat this till M drops no more.   .   .   .   correct?

Win:
Ok same spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
I have 1$ on M and H.    But now 31 (H) drops.   .   .   so it's a win.   .   .   I take my money from the table.   
But then what?
The movement is from 24M to 31H.    So the movement is right again so my new bet would be on H and L? And H would be the repeat and L would be the win.   .   .   correct?
Or do I take a free spin after the 31H to get my new movement?
Say after the 31(H) I free spin and number 17(M) drops.   .   .   movement is left so I bet on M and L.   .   .   M is the repeat and L is the win?
Or do i start completely over again? So spin at least 2 more times to get the new movement?

Loss:
Ok same spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
I have 1$ on M and H.    But now 4(L) drops.   .   .   so it's a lose.   .   .   .   the casino takes my money from the table.   
But then what?
It went from M to L.    So the movement is left so my next bet would be on L and H? And L would be the repeat and H would be the win.   .   .   .   correct?
Or do I also take a free spin after the 4(L) to get my new movement?
Or do i start completely over again? So spin at least 2 more times to get the new movement?

Now the progressive part.   
I spin again 12(L) and then 24(M).   
I bet 1$ on M and H.    I spin and 4(L) drops.   .   .   so it's a lose.   
Let's say I have to free spin now to get a new movement.   .   .   I spin a 34(H).   .   .   from L to H is movement left so now I bet 2$ on H and 2$ on M?
I spin 4(L) again.   .   .   so it's a lose again.   .   .   .   ok I free spin again to get a new movement.   .   .   I spin 7(L).   .   .   .   that's not a movement so I can't do nothing with that so I have to spin again right?.   .   .   next I spin a 16(M).   .   .   from 7(L) to 16(M) is movement right so now I bet 4$ on M and H?
And I keep doing this progression till I have a win?

Please take my hand and talk to me slow.   .   .   just pretend I'm from Canada or Belgium  Huh?

There's a (L), (M) and (H) dozen.   

Repeat:
I spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
So from L to M is movement right so I bet 1$ on M and H.   
M is the repeat and H is the win.   
Now 21(M) drops so I repeat the bet.   .   .   so again 1$ on M and H.    And I repeat this till M drops no more.   .   .   .   correct?  100% correct

Win:
Ok same spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
I have 1$ on M and H.    But now 31 (H) drops.   .   .   so it's a win.   .   .   I take my money from the table.   
But then what?
The movement is from 24M to 31H.    So the movement is right again so my new bet would be on H and L? And H would be the repeat and L would be the win.   .   .   correct?
Or do I take a free spin after the 31H to get my new movement?
Say after the 31(H) I free spin and number 17(M) drops.   .   .   movement is left so I bet on M and L.   .   .   M is the repeat and L is the win?
Or do I start completely over again? So spin at least 2 more times to get the new movement?  You only make one bet in the same direction until you get a new trigger.  When you get a win on your first movement to the right, you stop betting until you get your first left movement, at which point in time you play until your first win from another left movement, or until you lose to a right movement which starts a new bet in that direction.

Loss:
Ok same spin 12(L) and a 24(M)
I have 1$ on M and H.    But now 4(L) drops.   .   .   so it's a lose.   .   .   .   the casino takes my money from the table.   
But then what?
It went from M to L.    So the movement is left so my next bet would be on L and H? And L would be the repeat and H would be the win.   .   .   .   correct?  This is correct
Or do I also take a free spin after the 4(L) to get my new movement?No
Or do I start completely over again? So spin at least 2 more times to get the new movement?No, you can act on the very first spin in a new direction

Now the progressive part.   
I spin again 12(L) and then 24(M).   
I bet 1$ on M and H.    I spin and 4(L) drops.   .   .   so it's a lose.   
Let's say I have to free spin now to get a new movement.   .   .   I spin a 34(H).   .   .   from L to H is movement left so now I bet 2$ on H and 2$ on M? You would not free spin here - the movement from M to L creates your bet on L and H
I spin 4(L) again.   .   .   so it's a lose again.   .   .   .   ok I free spin again to get a new movement.   .   .   I spin 7(L).   .   .   .   that's not a movement so I can't do nothing with that so I have to spin again right?.   .   .   next I spin a 16(M).   .   .   from 7(L) to 16(M) is movement right so now I bet 4$ on M and H?
And I keep doing this progression till I have a win?  I have two separate progressions, 1 for right and 1 for left.  Whenever you have a win in one direction, that will reset your progression ONLY IN THAT DIRECTION. The two directions are completely independent of one another.  If you lose on a Left movement, you move the left progression up to the next level, but you have to wait until your next left trigger to apply the new betting amount.  Since you just lost to a right movement, you will make a bet to the right at whatever progression level is indicated for the right movements.  You don't worry about your left progression until your next left bet is triggered.

Thank you for trying to help colbster.   

Quote from: colbster link=topic=17692.   msg127928#msg127928 date=1296913657
You only make one bet in the same direction until you get a new trigger.     When you get a win on your first movement to the right, you stop betting until you get your first left movement, at which point in time you play until your first win from another left movement, or until you lose to a right movement which starts a new bet in that direction.   
I have two separate progressions, 1 for right and 1 for left.     Whenever you have a win in one direction, that will reset your progression ONLY IN THAT DIRECTION.    The two directions are completely independent of one another.     If you lose on a Left movement, you move the left progression up to the next level, but you have to wait until your next left trigger to apply the new betting amount.     Since you just lost to a right movement, you will make a bet to the right at whatever progression level is indicated for the right movements.     You don't worry about your left progression until your next left bet is triggered.   

So you never bet twice in a row on a left of right movement? And both left and right have a progressive?
Let me put all of this in a blender and see if we can feed the baby.   

Let's say I make a right movement/bet and put 1$ on M and H.    If M is the repeat and it drops then ofcourse I duplicate the bet till M doesn't drop anymore.   
If H drops then it's a win.   .   .   so then I take my money and go for the left movement/bet.   .   .   .   after the left movement/bet I go for the right movement/bet and because I won the previous right movement/bet I again only bet 1$ on each dozen.   

Now lets say on that right movement/bet with 1$ on M and H the L drops so I lose my right movement/bet.  .  .  .  I go for my left movement/bet.  .   .   .   after that left movement/bet I again go for the right movement/bet but now I must go progressive because I lost the previous right movement/bet. 

That sounds right to me.  I think you've got it.

Quote from: harald on February 05, 2011, 11:41:50 AM

If H drops then it's a win.   .   .   so then I take my money and go for the left movement/bet.   .   .   .   

Just be sure after a win that you wait for the next trigger, which in this case is a new movement to the left.  You don't automatically start betting to the left after a win to the right.  There is often a couple of tracking spins before the trigger for your next bet.  Otherwise, you seem to have it just right.

Quote from: colbster link=topic=17692.  msg127970#msg127970 date=1296926040
Just be sure after a win that you wait for the next trigger, which in this case is a new movement to the left.    You don't automatically start betting to the left after a win to the right.   

But after that right bet your next bet must be left?
Sorry if I ask some things more then once or repeat myself.  .  .  but I like to be sure. 
Let's say after a win on right my first trigger is right again.  .  .  do I just keep on spinning till I have a trigger for left?.  .  .  or do I follow the first trigger that comes up.  .  .  .  so in this case bet on right again?

Quote from: colbster link=topic=17692.  msg127970#msg127970 date=1296926040
There is often a couple of tracking spins before the trigger for your next bet.    Otherwise, you seem to have it just right. 

There's 1 thing I also don't understand.  .  .  and that's your progressive bets of 1,2,4,8 etc. 
If you use that progression on a 2 dozen bets your always behind if you win. 

You bet 1$ on 2 dozens.  .  .  you lose so that's 2$ loss total.  .  .  .  the next time you bet 2$ on 2 dozens.   You win now so that's 6$ minus your 4$ bet is 2$ profit.  .  but you lost your 1$ bet so minus 2$ so your profit is zero. 
Lets say you also lose your 2$ bets on 2 dozens.  .  .  so the next time you put 4$ on each dozen.   You win so that's 12$ minus your 8$ bet is 4$ profit.  .  .  but then you still have your lost (6$) from the first 2 spins.  .  .  etc etc.  .  .  so no matter when you win you always lose.   Someone else talked about 1,3,9,27 etc progression.  .  .  that's also the progression I used when I tried other 2 dozen bets.  .  .  .  .  then if you win after some losses you still win. 
Am I missing something about your progressive betting?

This is a very conservative progression, and far less likely to bust than a usual 2 dozens progression.  Most of your profit comes on repeats; the progression just keeps you in the game.

Sam

Here are my two big questions:

The longer we play, the more vulnerable we are to the 0, so what if instead of tracking two more spins (or however many we need to get a new direction) after 0, we just treat the numbers before and after the 0 as contiguous?

What if we don't wait for a new direction, ie. if we win on right and then the next number goes right, we bet right again.  I just hate to miss out on strings of repeats because I'm waiting for the direction to reverse.  This would also shorten playing time and avoid more zeros.

I'm sure Colbster has thought of these; I just can't help but ask.

Sam

Quote from: birdhands link=topic=17692. msg127982#msg127982 date=1296928581
This is a very conservative progression, and far less likely to bust than a usual 2 dozens progression.   Most of your profit comes on repeats; the progression just keeps you in the game.

Sam

Now comes the bear and takes my icecream away.

In my mind your losses with this progression are very high. . . . the longer this progression takes place the higher your lost. . . . so how can that keep me in the game?
If you loose your first 3 bets then you loose 1x2= 2, 2x2=4, 4x2=8 total of 14 lost.  Your next bet would be 8x2. . . if you win then you win 24 minus your 8x2 bet so total win is 8. . . but your lost of the previous 3 bets is 14. . . so although you win you still lose 14-8=6
So my profit must come from 7 repeats?
Then the whole progression thing sounds silly to me. . . why go progressive to get a lost no matter when you win?
Again i'm missing an important thing. . . it doesn't make sense now. . . now it looks to me that you must have lot's of repeats to win back what you loose from your progressive betting. . . a progression that never wins anything but looses everytime no matter when you win. . . . that can't be right. . . . some things sound like they are back to front. . . the other way around.
It would make a little sense by now if you use a 1,3,9,27 progression. . . . then i see profit in the repeats and the progression.


Another thing. 
It also would make more sense to me if you repeat on the new dozen.
If i bet on M and H and L drops. . . then in my next bet the L is my 'repeatdozen'. . . but since that dozen already dropped wouldn't it be better to take the new dozen as a repeat?. . . . and see the L as the win?. . . . . otherwise to me it seems that you alway's walk 1 step behind winnings on the repeat. 
And i know random is random but Colbster said:
"I stick with the stats that suggest that there are three times as many doubles as triples and three times as many triples as quads. "

So i would say theres 3 times as many singles as doubles. . . . so 3 times more change the new dozen will drop instead of the same (double) dozen.

@Birdhands re:
Here are my two big questions:

The longer we play, the more vulnerable we are to the 0, so what if instead of tracking two more spins (or however many we need to get a new direction) after 0, we just treat the numbers before and after the 0 as contiguous?

The 0 risk is built into the math that I outlined at the beginning of this thread.  Yes, you will have 0's come along the way.  That said, by not betting on every single spin, only on those right after the trigger, you will have many 0's pass you by without any harm whatsoever.  Regarding playing the numbers immediately before and after the 0, that is certainly an option.  The reality is that we have the same odds no matter which 2 dozens we play, and no matter which we claim is the "repeat" dozen and which is the "win" dozen.  Your way is no more right or wrong than mine, I just like having some sort of rule by which I play consistently.

What if we don't wait for a new direction, ie. if we win on right and then the next number goes right, we bet right again.  I just hate to miss out on strings of repeats because I'm waiting for the direction to reverse.  This would also shorten playing time and avoid more zeros.

I have had numerous people suggest continuing to play without stopping on a win.  Since triples are less likely than doubles, I deduce that we will have too many situations where we gain 1 unit on the double and lose 2 units when we fail on the triple, netting a loss of 1 unit.  Some sessions might find it good, some might find it terrible, but I believe it to be a losing bet to chase previous spins.  I just use the previous spins as a trigger for lack of a better method, but I don't claim that there is any magic that comes from it.

@Harald

In my mind your losses with this progression are very high. . . . the longer this progression takes place the higher your lost. . . . so how can that keep me in the game?
If you lose your first 3 bets then you lose 1x2= 2, 2x2=4, 4x2=8 total of 14 lost.  Your next bet would be 8x2. . . if you win then you win 24 minus your 8x2 bet so total win is 8. . . but your lost of the previous 3 bets is 14. . . so although you win you still lose 14-8=6
So my profit must come from 7 repeats?
Then the whole progression thing sounds silly to me. . . why go progressive to get a lost no matter when you win?
Again I'm missing an important thing. . . it doesn't make sense now. . . now it looks to me that you must have lot's of repeats to win back what you lose from your progressive betting. . . a progression that never wins anything but loses everytime no matter when you win. . . . that can't be right. . . . some things sound like they are back to front. . . the other way around.
It would make a little sense by now if you use a 1,3,9,27 progression. . . . then I see profit in the repeats and the progression.

By using the 1,3,9,27 progression, your units risked grow beyond the constraints of bankroll and table limits very quickly.  The 1,2,4,8 gives you more spins to be correct.  You are partially right about the losses, and I have addressed this in earlier posts.  When you chop 1-3-1-3-1-3-1-3 without any repeats, followed by an immediate win, you do end with a negative return.  What is just as likely as that is the 1-1-1-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-3-3-3-1-2 where you make quite a few repeats in a series, despite a number of actual failures.  There will be times where you lose the progression but end up with positive units because of heavy repeats at the 8-16-32-64 levels.  When you have a repeat at, for instance, level 8, that covers the losses you would have incurred from 1-2-4 and gives you a +1 profit to boot.  If you have no repeats at all, you will have the losses.  However, don't forget we are covering 2/3 of the board, meaning it is less likely that you will have the straight failures that will lead to the ultimate losses.

Another thing. 

It also would make more sense to me if you repeat on the new dozen.
If I bet on M and H and L drops. . . then in my next bet the L is my 'repeatdozen'. . . but since that dozen already dropped wouldn't it be better to take the new dozen as a repeat?. . . . and see the L as the win?. . . . . otherwise to me it seems that you alway's walk 1 step behind winnings on the repeat. 

See my comments to Birdhands above:  Your way is just as good as mine, and if you prefer that way, by all means, go for it.  I can just randomly pick 2nd as my repeat, 1st as my win, and 3rd as my loss and have the same odds.  Random means that the previous spins don't directly impact the next spins, so they are all equal.  I just like sticking with the same rules every session, so I am not swayed by emotion or short-term trends.  Pick a method and stick with it.


And I know random is random but Colbster said:
"I stick with the stats that suggest that there are three times as many doubles as triples and three times as many triples as quads. "

So I would say theres 3 times as many singles as doubles. . . . so 3 times more change the new dozen will drop instead of the same (double) dozen.

That is factually correct.  You can just as well play the opposite of the last spin as you can the repeat of the last spin.  If you do that, though, you are betting on a dozen continuing to sleep.  If you go M-L, that is a move to the left.  Opposite would be right, therefore, you would bet on L-M, betting that H would not appear.  If you win with that right movement to the M, you would bet back to the left, again betting M-L.  H will inevitably appear, with each of your bets becoming less and less likely of success statistically.

Hello Colbster,

I'm giving this a test but I'm not clear how you are using the progression.

If you are going up the progression and win on say 16 do you reset to 1 or what. I get the bit about running separate progressions for left and right. I guess this makes your method of bet choice work so well.

One other thing, you say

"You might feel more comfortable stopping with a loss of 32 to reduce damage to your bankroll, but my experience is that this is actually revenue-neutral in the long run."

But surely if the maths negate the edge as you say it will make no difference.

Robert

Yes, reset to 1 on your progression with any win

Am I right in thinking that "any win" does not include a repeat.  For instance, I have been continuing to bet 8 while the current dozen repeats, and only reset when I hit the winning dozen.  So if I'm betting M and H (last spun was M) on the 4th progression level (8) and I hit M, then I bet 8 again, if I hit M again then I bet 8 again, if the next number is H then I stop and reset to 1 next time I bet to the Right; if the next number is L then I bet Left at whatever progression level the left bets are on, and bet 16 next time I bet to the right.  Is this correct?

Sam

OK, I asked the question because of this statement,

"When you have a repeat at, for instance, level 8, that covers the losses you would have incurred from 1-2-4 and gives you a +1 profit to boot.  If you have no repeats at all, you will have the losses.  However, don't forget we are covering 2/3 of the board, meaning it is less likely that you will have the straight failures that will lead to the ultimate losses."

I agree with Harald,

"If you lose your first 3 bets then you lose 1x2= 2, 2x2=4, 4x2=8 total of 14 lost.  Your next bet would be 8x2. . . if you win then you win 24 minus your 8x2 bet so total win is 8. . . but your lost of the previous 3 bets is 14. . . so although you win you still lose 14-8=6"


If I'm wrong I can't see where.

Robert

Quote from: birdhands on February 05, 2011, 05:43:21 PM
Am I right in thinking that "any win" does not include a repeat.  For instance, I have been continuing to bet 8 while the current dozen repeats, and only reset when I hit the winning dozen.  So if I'm betting M and H (last spun was M) on the 4th progression level (8) and I hit M, then I bet 8 again, if I hit M again then I bet 8 again, if the next number is H then I stop and reset to 1 next time I bet to the Right; if the next number is L then I bet Left at whatever progression level the left bets are on, and bet 16 next time I bet to the right.  Is this correct?

Sam

Correct - repeats are not wins, although they pay like they are  :biggrin:

@ Colbster,
     Thanks for your reply about the zeros.  I just realized that my results have been skewed because I'm practicing on an American RNG which doesn't allow free spins, so every time the zero hit I lost 2 units (because I have to bet red/black to spin).  Most of the zeros did hit on tracking spins like you said.

Sam

After seeing post 54 I see my mistake. I was interpreting a "win" as any winning bet, whereas you carry on at the same progression level if it is a repeat "win" and only reset on a win win.

I'll carry on with this with renewed hope.

Robert

I was lying in my bed last night thinking about this. . . and suddenly. . . . ping. . . . . . . I've got a golden ticket. . . . . .  :whistle:
i was to focused on the progressive side. . . . i (also) calculated a repeat only as a win in the first step (1$). . . forgot that if you go progressive after a loss your 'repeatdozen' also goes progressive.  That's why i said i have to get 7 repeats to recover from a 6$ lost. . . . and like i said that just can't be right.

For now I only like to have an answer to this question just to be shure:
Let's say after a win on right my first trigger is right again.   .   .   do I just keep on spinning till I have a trigger for left?.   .   .   or do I follow the first trigger that comes up.   .   .   .   so in this case bet on right again?
If i keep spinning for that left trigger maby a zero comes so i didn't lost money on that. . . but if i go directly to the trigger that comes up i can do more spins in an hour.

Btw.
With what info i had i started playing with this 'system' at a rng roulette in a playtech casino. . . just to see if i play then maby gaps fill in. . . . i played 10c per bet because they don't have 1c. . . . i think i played a total of 6 hours so far. . . and ofcourse i did a lot of things wrong but only lost 2 euro. . . . i only lost so little because i played with a maximum of 3 step (1,3,9) progression. . . after that i wrote down what happend but only bet 10c again. . . . i wanted to play with money and not just free spins because i'm sure rng reacts different if you play for free. . . . (if i played without the maximum of 3 steps i would have lost my complete bankroll in 30 minutes). . . . most of the time the rng acts funny again after i win 2 times or after a couple of steps in the progression. . . . . i also saw that the (L)dozen drops way more then the others. . . . . . . but the really strange thing was in those 6 hours zero didn't drop once. . . . . . i play for 3 weeks every day for hours and i never had less then 4 zero's in 1 hour before at any rng.

Anyhow again i must warn colbster and others for rng. . . be carefull.  If you win to much or raise your bets then the rng kicks in and says 'ok my turn'. . . again (most) rng are not random. . . it doesn't look at your numbers/dozens/color etc. . . . it looks at your bankroll and winnings. . . . in about 3 weeks i think i tried about 15 'systems'. . . no matter what 'system' i used, or how bad i used them, i always win in the beginning. . . . always. . . . but there comes a time when you hit the wall no matter what you bet next. . . . . play 10 minutes, quit and go back the next day doesn't change a thing. . . it just goes on were it left. . . . . you have the same odds of winning/losing if you play rock,paper,scissors or flip a coin with it. . . . ofcourse i hope i'm wrong. . . therefore i hope someone is playing some higher bets (0,5/1$) with this system on a rng in realmode soon and post their findings.

Also with this rng i got more repeatwins if i choose my new dozen as a repeat.

Thanks again for all that took the time to help.

So far I can see it is more a strategy than a system.In my opinion you can never say you can beat the house edge (2,7  ER or 5,4 AR).Every mathematician can proof for every spin the edge is equal to the house edge.If you play the game as a strategy , it is possible to use the statistic features of nano rows. With a good skill it should be successful.
There are EUR RNG roulette with en prison.I never play American roulette.There are also RNG roulette where you can spin without a bet!!

On the European wheel there is a quarter without a number of dozen 2!! Sector players can use this feature

Quote from: schoenpoetser on February 06, 2011, 10:27:53 AM
In my opinion you can never say you can beat the house edge (2,7  ER or 5,4 AR).Every mathematician can proof for every spin the edge is equal to the house edge.

Let us be more open in our vocabulary regarding the math.  For every spin, the house advantage is 2.7 or 5.4%.  Instead, let us speak of the "indications of a single spin" - maybe ramifications is the better term, not sure.  If we take the single spin in a vacuum, we will always lose.  My strategy overcomes the house advantage because 12/37 of the spins "indicate" another spin is necessary, with 12/37 of those spins "indicating" another spin, and so on.  When we consider the spins resulting from the first spin as part of that spin, which I explained in great detail in the first post, the house advantage is absolutely overcome. 

I have to say I'm beginning to think I should give up roulette as one of the worlds unlucky people.

Once again I try a method that other people have apparent success with and bomb out quickly. OK I know losing the progression can happen at any time but with me it always happens more or less straight away or at least to knock me back to square one repeatedly.

I don't see why I should doubt the sincerity of the good people sharing their ideas on this forum but I just feel something is not right.

Robert

Quote from: treborg on February 06, 2011, 03:59:29 PM
I have to say I'm beginning to think I should give up roulette as one of the worlds unlucky people.

Once again I try a method that other people have apparent success with and bomb out quickly. OK I know losing the progression can happen at any time but with me it always happens more or less straight away or at least to knock me back to square one repeatedly.

I don't see why I should doubt the sincerity of the good people sharing their ideas on this forum but I just feel something is not right.

Robert

You're assuming that lots of folks do well at Roulette - nothing could be further from the truth.

If anyone has such a system I've posted instructions on how to demonstrate their system/technique in real time right here - takes 5 minutes to set up and start betting.

Here's the link to my thread: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/bet-selection/if-you-want-to-demonstrate-your-system-in-public/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/bet-selection/if-you-want-to-demonstrate-your-system-in-public/)

Assume that folks, who profess to have mastered Roulette, are either fooling you or fooling themselves - a live demo reveals the truth in just seconds.

Quote from: treborg link=topic=17692. msg128154#msg128154 date=1297018769
Once again I try a method that other people have apparent success with and bomb out quickly. 

Were did you try it?. . . . at a real roulette or at a rng?


I really want to try it out at a real casino this week. . . but i'm still not sure about 1 thing.
Do you always bet l,r,l,r,l?. . . or do you follow the first movement that comes up after a bet?

I've tried it so far with a total of 1100 spins with both (and more) options. . . if i must go l,r,l,r,l,r then sometimes i have to wait very long for the correct movement. . . once after a right movement i had to wait 26 spins before i got the correct left movement.  To me that sounds wrong.  And i don't see me in a casino sitting at a roulette waiting for 26 spins to make my bet.  But i also thought i read something about you missing spins that drops zero (losing bets) that way.
I know people try to answer me. . . and i know language can be a barrier. . . . but sometimes the more words and explaining you get the higher the barrier can get. . . . . a simple yes or no is understand even by me.
So again i hope someone can spare a simple yes or no for the answer for my question.

I used the method as explained by Colbster.

After a win, say going to the right, I wait for a movement to the left as my trigger. This can sometimes take some time.

After a loss I bet straight away as there has already been an opposite movement.

Some 0's are missed only because you are missing spins.

Hope this helps.

Robert

Problem of this method look at this number and with the progression do you see what happen? not a Failure but ....

24
17
11
5
0
15
26
3
27
23
9
35
18
26
0

Onlinet,  I've got -1 on those numbers and no need for the progression.

Sam

Quote from: olinet on February 07, 2011, 12:49:48 PM
Problem of this method look at this number and with the progression do you see what happen? not a Failure but ....

24 track
17 track
11 bet L,H
5   win+1 repeat, bet again L,H
0  lose -1
15 track
26  bet H,L
3  win 0
27 bet H,M
23 win +1
9   track
35 track
18 track
26 bet H,M
0  lose -1

What am I missing here?

You bet $1 on one dozen and $1 on another dozen and spin the wheel.

Statistics is very clear what will happen here - no need to guess:

1/37 betting times Green 0 will hit - lose $2

24/37 betting times you will win $1

And 12/37 betting times you will lose $2

Net net out of 37 betting spins you will win $24 and lose $24 and $2 for green =  a loss of $2 for every 37 betting spins.

Now you might be lucky and not lose $2 or you could be very unlucky and lose more.


If you expect something different then you believe in patterns in random numbers and that has never been proven my any mathematician anywhere.

Now maybe do-it-yourself mathematicians see patterns but real life mathematicians with college degrees don't.

Sorry to be the bearer of reality.....

Personally, I'd have more fun watching paint dry, or 2 spins at 2 numbers since I'm going to lose $2 anyway.

24 col 3
17 col 2 left 2.1
11 col 2 repeat win
5 col 2 repeat win
0 loss
15 col 3 loss right 3,1
26 col 2 loss left 2.1
3 col 3 loss right 3.1
27 repeat win
23col 2 loss left 2.1
9 col 3 loss right 3.1
35 col 2 loss left 2.1
18 col 3 loss right 3.1
26 col 2 loss left 2.1
0 loss

you see the disaster

**********Net net out of 37 betting spins you will win $24 and lose $24 and $2 for green =  a loss of $2 for every 37 betting spins*************

You are hoping to ride a long repeating dozen and keep making lots of +1 profits. After any genuine win or loss you take all money off the table.

I didn't realize you were betting columns rather than dozens.  First off we usually track after the 0 drops.  Second, the chops are why we need the progression.  It's the same with dozens; sometimes you get 37,2,25,12,31,9,29,1...etc.  it's tough, but not so tough that the system breaks down in the long run.

@Maui,
     If you already read Colbster's explanation on the first page and you still think it's nonsense then maybe you should try a different church.


Sam

if a serie like these happen , what we have to do?

stop when -100? something else?

i lost -100 after 500 test spins.

colbster lost just 3 times , it is amazing!!!!

i want a response from colbster.

thanks

Quote from: col1879 on February 07, 2011, 01:28:30 PM
**********Net net out of 37 betting spins you will win $24 and lose $24 and $2 for green =  a loss of $2 for every 37 betting spins*************

You are hoping to ride a long repeating dozen and keep making lots of +1 profits. After any genuine win or loss you take all money off the table.

When I play Roulette at a Vegas casino I am stuck with the American wheel and a 5.3% fee to play the game.  I play Roulette as a break from hours at the BlackJack table - I alternate Red and Black and get as many free drinks as I can get while at the table.

I guess I can now add 2 bets on the 2-to-1 rows and columns and look much more sophisticated than alternating Red and Black while I guzzle down drinks as fast as possible.

Sadly, that's all I use Roulette for - free drinks (which really aren't free with tip and Green(s)).

*************Sadly, that's all I use Roulette for - free drinks (which really aren't free with tip and Green(s)).***********

1st- you don't have to tip. 2nd- your blackjack winnings will cover your roulette losses

Quote from: treborg on February 07, 2011, 08:56:23 AM
I used the method as explained by Colbster.

After a win, say going to the right, I wait for a movement to the left as my trigger. This can sometimes take some time.

After a loss I bet straight away as there has already been an opposite movement.

I thought that was the case....to bad...i played that way for some hours now at a real casino and online live roulette.....and sometimes it's very boring to wait 20+ spins for the next correct movement.

Quote from: col1879 on February 07, 2011, 02:16:29 PM
*************Sadly, that's all I use Roulette for - free drinks (which really aren't free with tip and Green(s)).***********

1st- you don't have to tip. 2nd- your blackjack winnings will cover your roulette losses

I tip up front - I give my server $5 up front and order 2 drinks and tell her/him to come back often - they do.  (Second drink is for my "friend" stuck in the bathroom all night)

You pay for what you get......

MauiSunset, I said this belief in a different thread but I will repeat it here.....

You could test colbster's strategy and after 100 sessions be +5,000
You could test colbster's strategy and after 100 sessions be 0
You could test colbster's strategy and after 100 sessions be -10,000

Knowing whether to keep going with the strategy (riding your luck) or knowing when to quit (accepting specifc losses) is what will separate you from the gamblers who continue to play it whatever way the trends are coming (don't say there's no such thing as a trend)

Lastly, only gamble with what you are willing to lose and aim for small profits- they add up

Colin

Play in real time and work the "bugs" out - here's my link nolinks://vlsroulette.com/bet-selection/if-you-want-to-demonstrate-your-system-in-public/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/bet-selection/if-you-want-to-demonstrate-your-system-in-public/)

It takes just a few minutes to start playing (with play money) in real time and I can tell you that if you are down after 1 hour of playing you will NEVER play this for real)

Give it a try - save a lot of time...........

*********** (Second drink is for my "friend" stuck in the bathroom all night)********************

I am getting worried about this friend you have- always stuck in the bathroom! Is it because they drink too much alcohol? You should not gamble and drink alcohol at the same time.

Quote from: col1879 on February 07, 2011, 02:32:02 PM
*********** (Second drink is for my "friend" stuck in the bathroom all night)********************

I am getting worried about this friend you have- always stuck in the bathroom! Is it because they drink too much alcohol? You should not gamble and drink alcohol at the same time.

I have a lot of fun at a Vegas casino - I get my money's worth in comps and drinks.

While I play BlackJack I have my plastic coated card right on the table and although I have it memorized I double check every hand - one screw up can really hurt you.

******************It takes just a few minutes to start playing (with play money) in real time and I can tell you that if you are down after 1 hour of playing you will NEVER play this for real)***************************

I strongly agree. I usually test a system for weeks before deciding whether to risk real money. And by 'risk' I do mean risk. With roulette nothing is ever a certainty. Some strategies fail after 5 mins. Some 10 mins. Others 30 mins. Some 60 mins. Others 10 hrs +

They all do fail in the end, over infinity. But, like I have posted before, human beings do not play for infinity. They play X amount of spins. Never believe any one strategy is unbeatable. Only gamble with what you are willing to lose. Achieve small profits or accept specific losses. Know when to quit.

I could play colbster's strategy and be in profit after 1 hour of playing and always be in profit for 100 sessions in a row
You could play colbster's strategy and be in losses after 1 hour of playing and always be in losses for 100 sessions in a row

What does that tell you about this particular strategy? (It should tell you to quit after Test 1 and me to continue to Test 100)

******************While I play BlackJack I have my plastic coated card right on the table and although I have it memorized I double check every hand - one screw up can really hurt you.**********************

I've never played bj for real or did any testing on it. Is it worth learning? Any decent strategies for it? This is a bit off topic, this thread is about colbster's egglington

Using the strategiey correctly is only half the battle. Playing with a plan (made before you start) and sticking to it (no matter what) goes a looooong way...... Like I always say, only gamble with what you are willing to lose, aim for small profits and KNOW WHEN TO QUIT

Quote from: col1879 on February 07, 2011, 02:57:04 PM
******************While I play BlackJack I have my plastic coated card right on the table and although I have it memorized I double check every hand - one screw up can really hurt you.**********************

I've never played bj for real or did any testing on it. Is it worth learning? Any decent strategies for it? This is a bit off topic, this thread is about colbster's egglington

Using the strategiey correctly is only half the battle. Playing with a plan (made before you start) and sticking to it (no matter what) goes a looooong way...... Like I always say, only gamble with what you are willing to lose, aim for small profits and KNOW WHEN TO QUIT

My one and only comment in this thread about BJ - it's a fantastic game where skill actually makes a difference; worth learning.

Ok I will look in to bj.

Regarding the eggleston, it is worth noting that a start up BR should always be excess. By that I mean only play with money you can afford to lose. You got $500 birthday money? Set up an initial BR of $300 and play colbster's strategy. Based on your initial testing you should set a realistic profit return and an acceptable loss limit.

Do this BEFORE you play with real money and STICK TO IT NO MATTER WHAT. Don't start adding rent money, food money, loan payment money etc in the hope that a bad run of sessions with suddenly become good. You can never guarantee that. Basically, only gamble with what you can afford to lose!

Did a good job at work and got a bonus? You can invest some of that in a start up BR and play colbster's strategy. Not 'needed' money. Basically, instead of going on holiday or buying that new tv you want you are investing in a strategy with EXCESS money. Any investment carries risk.

For example, just looking at eggleston as a seperate strategy, disconnected to any other, I think it's a good strategy. A lot better than a lot of the other strategies out there. If my start up BR (of excess) takes off well then I stay on that trend and ride it, keep going, and make a value judgement- know when to get off. If my start up BR (of excess) takes off badly, nosedives and I lose the whole $300, that's it, I'm outta here. Any new start up BR will be made 100% of EXCESS, no rent money, food money, food money etc..........

If you can remember to keep putting away all those small profits you want to achieve (with any good strategy) then they soon start adding up. Don't get too greedy and KNOW WHEN TO QUIT

The rollercoaster will eventually run out of track, don't stay on too long and leave that ride at what you realistically believe (based on testing) to be the top..........

at th attention of birthhands


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Re: The Eggleston Betting system
« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2011, 06:32:59 PM »
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OK, I've hit some bad numbers (not too bad) and I want to make sure I'm doing this right.  Colbster, could you check these?

28
20
31L
9W
5
12
13
25
24
6W
24
00L
20W
9L
29W
32
15
28
9W
8
5
2
19
13
21
10
23L
8L
13L
5L
8W
24L
7L
00L
28W
4
11W
21W
31
33
28
33
00
7
13
6
2W
12W
26W
7
2W
33L
15W
27
10W
23
13
11
4W
18L
2L
6W
11W
26W
10
1W
14W
12
10W
36W
28
3
10W
7W
14W
15
17
17
23
18
14
00
31
22
26L
00L
3W
28
3L
23W

28 wins, 16 losses   total -4 units
I guess it would be +2 without the American 00.

i arrive at th same total
when i use the martingale progression of colbster i arrive to +13

colbster when he use his martingale he arrive at + 34

i think colbster has made an error

what do you think?

Quote from: olinet on February 09, 2011, 11:00:14 AM

28
20
31L -2
9W  -1
5
12
13
25
24
6W +1
24
00L  -1
20
9
29W 0
32
15
28
9W +1
8
5
2
19
13
21
10
23L -1
8L -3
13L -7
5L -11
8W -7
24L -15
7L -23
00L -39
28
4
11W -31
21W  -23
31
33
28
33
00
7
13
6
2W -15
12W -7
26W +1
7
2W +2
33L  0
15W +1
27
10W +3
23
13
11
4W +4
18L +2
2L 0
6W +2
11W +4
26W +6
10
1W +8
14W +10
12
10W +11
36W +12
28
3
10W +13
7W +14
14W +15
15
17
17
23
18
14
00
31
22
26L +13
00L +11
3
28
3L +7
23W +8


Ok, so I've got +8 with the progression.  Although the Left side of the progression is currently at the 4/4 level, so the next Left win (or wins if repeats) will bring it back up in the teens.

Colbster may have been applying a slightly modified betting strategy; I know he is experimenting with a few.  For example, we could have moved up in the progression when the zeros hit instead of just taking the loss.

Sam

I went back and checked my numbers and don't quite see where I screwed up.  I must have lost a negative sign along the way.  Sorry about that - I did a quick check while at work and didn't give it my full consideration.  I agree with the newer numbers.

@Birdhands: Using our new "II" progression, it ended up 94 units.  :thumbsup:

Any1 with good results besides with free play and 1c bets?

@Birdhands: Using our new "II" progression, it ended up 94 units.

Can we know more about the new progression?

Nope - it is nowhere near ready for public consideration.  Birdhands and I are playing around with a couple variations, but I don't see them making it to the forum for a while. 

NO problem

i will see alone.

thank you for your method and your explanations.

Btw if the profit must come from winning dozens but more from repeating dozens then why not go anti-martingale on the repeats?

col1879,

I tried to reach you via IM but you are set for forwarding messages to Mobil.

The person text me saying it's not you?

Regards,

/John

Amazing thing you have done here, colbster, and incredibly kind of you to share it with us.  I will be testing this in the months ahead and will report back with the results.

I am a bit fuzzy on the triggers, however, as well as the zeros.

You make it clear that our only trigger is a change in direction.  However, in your . xls example after a zero hits (following a repeat) the direction does not change (it continues to move to the right), yet bets are placed on the dozens moving to the right.  Was this because there was a repeat or because there was a zero, or both? Or was this a mistake on your part? 

The reason I ask is because later in the example (further down if you look, the large gap near the bottom) you do not bet until a direction changes - a repeat does not trigger a change in bet placement. 

Do zeros override the opposite direction rule? That is, do we reset our tracking each time a zero hits and bet as soon as there is a direction, regardless of whether the direction has changed?

Furthermore, if we have bets on the table and a zero hits, do we just ignore the zero and repeat our bet like nothing happened, or do we reset our tracking until at least two different dozens (any two dozens) come out (like you suggested in one of your posts), or do we wait until a direction changes?

Lots of confusion going on here, any feedback you may provide would be highly acknowledged.

Thank you again for all your hard work and your generosity to share it with the rest of the world.

Zeroes stop all bets and end all previous directions.  After a zero, we wait for our first new trigger like we would have at the beginning of a session.  You can bet whichever direction it indicates now, even if it is the same direction that lost to the zero in the first place.  If you are playing with a progression, I count zero as a loss that would move you to the next step in the progression.  Hope that helps.

Quote from: colbster link=topic=17692. msg129249#msg129249 date=1298123449
Zeroes stop all bets and end all previous directions.   After a zero, we wait for our first new trigger like we would have at the beginning of a session.   You can bet whichever direction it indicates now, even if it is the same direction that lost to the zero in the first place.   If you are playing with a progression, I count zero as a loss that would move you to the next step in the progression.   Hope that helps.

Helps greatly.

Will report back in a few weeks.

Thank you for everything, colbster.

colbster,

I said I would report back in a few weeks, but there's no point in waiting.   

Before I say anything I want to congratulate you for your devotion to your goal and thank you again for your wonderful generosity to share your strategy with the rest of the board.   

I did a quick pull-up of a few sessions last night and today and crunched them manually so there's no mistake.     

There are eight sessions in total from four different tables (not that it makes any difference), two from Fitzwilliam Dublin, two from Playtech Live, two from Spielbank Wiesbaden and two are Random.    org numbers.   Sessions were roughly 150 spins each (as suggested) which roughs up to about 80 play spins per session.   

Flat betting, bet selection exactly as laid out in the .    xls example.   

Fitzwilliam Dublin:

Session 1: +8  (highest up: +8; lowest down: -7)
Session 2: -7  (highest up: +9; lowest down: -8)

Playtech:

Session 1: -1  (highest up: +2; lowest down: -12)
Session 2: +5  (highest up: +10; lowest down: -7)

Spielbank Wiesbaden:

Session 1: +10  (highest up: +10; lowest down: -5)
Session 2: -19  (highest up: +6; lowest down: -26)

Random.    org:

Session 1: +10  (highest up: +21; lowest down: 0)
Session 2: -7  (highest up: +1; lowest down: -10)

Total: -1

Total spins: 1200
Spins that resulted in play: ~640

In summary, testing does not indicate any advantage over betting the odds randomly; in effect, results are almost exactly what one would expect from random chance.     Whatever success you and others are having is solely due to strategic backing (progression, massive buy-ins, stop wins / losses), not bet selection.     A series of severe losses is likely due soon.   

Too early to retire, buddy.   

Thank you again for your hard work and good luck in your future pursuits.   

I appreciate your willingness to run the numbers.  However, I don't play, or suggest playing, the way that is expressed in the spreadsheet, especially flat betting.  Chops will tear up dozens, losing 2 for every 1 won.  That is why even a very mild progression is recommended.  I was afraid to post any sort of playing method with my initial post because of responses exactly like yours - too much attention is paid to the methodology without considering the mathmatical advantage I have brought to the table.  I gave a very simplistic method of playing just as an example.  My goal was to give a new way of thinking about placing bets with the hope that the community would make contributions regarding a methodology that would optimally exploit my staking advantage.  That hope never was fulfilled.  I have had some great chats with many different people in private about my methods, and have developed my own method of playing that is very profitable (300 unit buy-in, 100 unit stop loss, bets on every spin, very minor progression relative to the odds).  I am up 2,000 units in about 3 weeks, playing just a couple hours each week.  I will not be sharing that method on this forum because I have found that there are too many people (and I am absolutely NOT including you in this comment - you at lease contributed by testing the numbers) who want the system creators to do all the hard work and testing with no effort expended on their part.

Anyone who wants to develop a method of their own will benefit by including my staking discovery about the advantage over the house.  I'm sorry I was not clear that the method I detailed was not a playing method, just one for the purpose of explanation.

I would be glad to chat sometime with you about my original method, which I am certain would show you a profit based on the exact same spins you just used.

Best of luck,

Colby

Hi, colbster,

I have sent you a PM.

Quote from: jrhelp007 on February 15, 2011, 05:24:55 PM
col1879,

I tried to reach you via IM but you are set for forwarding messages to Mobil.

The person text me saying it's not you?

Regards,

/John

I don't have a mobile. I should receive any pm's, they do not get forwarded anywhere. If you send me a pm I should get it in my inbox okay.

col

Quote from: colbster on February 21, 2011, 01:04:45 PM
I will not be sharing that method on this forum because I have found that there are too many people (and I am absolutely NOT including you in this comment - you at lease contributed by testing the numbers) who want the system creators to do all the hard work and testing with no effort expended on their part.

That's not completely true. I have spend time and money on this. I made a total of more then 1500 spins in different sessions with real money and try to talk about it...but got no response from you anymore. Yes there is maby a language barrier but also like some1 else said the xls. example did not match what you and others were saying. That confused me a lot. That's why i sometimes had to ask things twice just to be sure.

I gave up on this because i didn't got any response from you anymore. But more important in all those sessions i only got 2 times a repeat of 5 dozens. So i never won a single session. Also i asked here if some1 had good results so far....but not a single response. So i gave up on this and filed it under the so many 'systems' were only the creator say that he/she made money from it.