Hi, I am on my next design at a winning strategy (doomed to fail lol) and need to know the following:
On average, over 100 spins, or 1000, 10,000 or whatever, Red/Black appears roughly at a 50/50 ratio (ignoring the zero)
Taking X as the total amount of spins, how often is the ratio actually 50/50? 70% of the time, maybe? What percentage of the time is it 60/40? 70/30? 80/20? 90/10? 100/0?
Many thanks :)
It makes no difference at all - the percentages I mean.
You can't bet that way.
The chance of a Red is NOT 50% it is 18/37 or 48.648% same with Black on a European Roulette wheel on an American wheel a Red is 18/38 or 47.368%.
That Green 0 or 00 is your tax/fee for playing the game. On an American Roulette wheel your tax/fee is 5.26% - insane - no system can beat that over the long run. If you play on an American wheel you are there for the free drinks and that's about it. So drink like there's no tomorrow.
Those are the percentages any system must work with, not 50/50. A mathematician can figure out the percentages for you but there still is no way to bet that way.
You are still limited to Red or Black or a Free Drink.
Do all the percentages eg 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, 90/10, 100/0 even out at 100% over infinity?
I am not interested in infinity, I want to know about large samples percentages (56,534 spins, 100,004 spins etc) as I wont live for infinity, only about 50 more years (if I'm lucky), I'll take my chances with playing virtual bets and only betting when the odds are on my side (yes I know you will argue that over infinity the odds are not on my side, I don't care about infinity)
p.s. I'm sticking with 50/50, roulette players should not fear the green monster
Quote from: col1879 on February 04, 2011, 07:15:42 PM
Do all the percentages eg 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, 90/10, 100/0 even out at 100% over infinity?
I am not interested in infinity, I want to know about large samples percentages (56,534 spins, 100,004 spins etc) as I wont live for infinity, only about 50 more years (if I'm lucky), I'll take my chances with playing virtual bets and only betting when the odds are on my side (yes I know you will argue that over infinity the odds are not on my side, I don't care about infinity)
p.s. I'm sticking with 50/50, roulette players should not fear the green monster
If you are fearless of the green monster then your bets must be small compared to the starting bet. Many Money Management techniques have you at 10X+ during a sequence and that's when the monster is unleashed and you order your next 2 drinks (I always order an extra drink for "a friend" who is always stuck in the bathroom).
Being fearless does not mean completely ignoring him! ;D
For example, using a strategy that involves EC bets, starting at 6 units, and always placing 0.50 on 0 and hoping for a zero popping out an average of at least once every 36 spins to cover yourself is acceptable (yes the zero could sleep for 300 spins or appear 6 times in 36 spins , who cares?)
If you want to play roulette, in my opinion, you have to stop thinking of things in terms of 'infinity'. Yes, I agree that over 'infinity' all strategies will ultimately fail. The house edge sees to that. BUT, here is the thing. HUMAN BEINGS do not play for infinity! They are either lucky or unlucky and smart Money Management, knowing when to accept a realistic profit/loss and using a good variety of strategies all go a looooooooong way!
Here is an example:
Mr John Doe discovers martingale. He is extremely lucky, wins 90% of every bet he ever places and never busts out on the final step of his martingale, $64. Over his life-time he accumulates total winnings of $452,160 and thinks he discovered a way of beating roulette.
On his deathbed he reveals his 'holy grail' to his son, John Doe Jnr. After the funeral John Doe Jnr races to his nearest casino and puts the 'holy grail' in to practise.
Unfortunately for Jnr, he is not mega lucky like his father. He is the complete opposite in fact, he is very unlucky. At his first session his progression fails and he is down -$127. He thinks he was just unlucky and goes to the bank to take out more money.
He is the unluckiest guy ever, loses 90% of every bet he ever places and ends up $452,160 in debt. He sells his house and car and on his deathbed curses his father's name.
These are two very different outcomes for two HUMAN BEINGS. All individuals using this 'holy grail' will have a different story.
I, for instance, discovered this particular strategy (a very bad one) a few years ago and within 3 days was up $214. I was very 'lucky' and should have quit while I was ahead, BUT, like most gamblers, got greedy. By the end of day 4, I had lost it all (including my $20 deposit)
My friend, joe bloggs, has his own story. He was extremely lucky, got up to $560 profit, realised the system was dodgy when I told him about my losses and withdrew his winnings and dropped the strategy. He knew he had been lucky and most importantly he knew WHEN TO QUIT.
Conclusion: Pick a strategy (a good one), hope to get lucky for a while (in YOUR life-time, not infinity) and KNOW WHEN TO QUIT
All strategies have their own HUMAN BEINGS story in their time line. Here is the 'holy grail' strategy used by Mr John Doe and others:
NEGATIVE <--John Doe Jnr ------------ col1879--------- 0 ----------- joe bloggs -------------------- Mr John Doe --> PROFIT
My advice? Constantly search for and develop 'good' strategies, play them to either an acceptable LOSS or realistic PROFIT and know WHEN TO QUIT. A good strategy, betting when the odds are in your favour and not getting too greedy and knowing when to quit a strategy all go a looooooong way.
Finally, remember to only gamble with what you can afford to lose. Stop thinking 'infinity', you are a unique HUMAN BEING with your own story and every strategy you ever play will put you somewhere in its own time line.
For example, I could learn one of Mr J's strategies, Lanky's, Bombus's etc and be lucky and end up here:
NEGATIVE <--John Doe Jnr ------------ 0 --------------------------------- col1879-----> PROFIT
or I could end up here:
NEGATIVE <--col1879------------------------- 0 ----------------------------------------> PROFIT
BUT, if I don't try and worry about 'infinity', then I'll never KNOW!
Build up a good arsenal of strategies, use them until you reach your acceptable LOSS or realistic PROFIT, drop them and find new ones........ Test, search old posts, discuss on the forum, test, test, test, discuss THEN -------------------------> HEAD IN TO THE TRENCHES!
col
col1879:On a live roulette you can expect 40 spins a hour.I visit the casino mostly 2-4 hours.This is the reason I am not interested in the results of very large samples.In my testing programs I use samples of 150 to 250 spins.The features of such samples can give you enough signs to wager.The deviation between the ECs is seldom larger than 15. In a strategy you must use the features of small samples.I have introduced nano and macro samples.A sample of 250 has a nano size in relation to infinity.