When I think a number is due to hit, people call it gamblers fallacy. But is it really gamblers fallacy to believe a roulette number will hit because it hasn't hit in x amount of spins? I can clearly see a bell curve and a finite amount of spins it takes to cover all the numbers on a roulette wheel.
I ran one million trials to see how many spins it takes to cover all the numbers on a double zero roulette wheel. The results below show the height of the bell curve between 128 and 144 spins. The outlier of 664 is the highest amount of spins it took to cover all the numbers. So even though the chance of a number to hit is 1/38, it doesn't take forever to hit it so how can it be a gambler's fallacy?
Spins it took to hit all numbers on the wheel - number of trials that took that many spins.
55- 1
56- 1
57- 2
58- 1
59- 2
60- 7
61- 9
62- 12
63- 13
64- 15
65- 26
66- 39
67- 46
68- 70
69- 84
70- 100
71- 124
72- 163
73- 198
74- 235
75- 294
76- 355
77- 429
78- 432
79- 535
80- 603
81- 777
82- 886
83- 1002
84- 1130
85- 1235
86- 1319
87- 1595
88- 1706
89- 2000
90- 2041
91- 2272
92- 2485
93- 2724
94- 2976
95- 3163
96- 3432
97- 3697
98- 4051
99- 4301
100- 4367
101- 4781
102- 4983
103- 5249
104- 5481
105- 5755
106- 6033
107- 6054
108- 6540
109- 6897
110- 7014
111- 7222
112- 7391
113- 7689
114- 7996
115- 8271
116- 8371
117- 8482
118- 8793
119- 8996
120- 8904
121- 9028
122- 9349
123- 9348
124- 9539
125- 9764
126- 9881
127- 9895
128- 10037
129- 10322
130- 10081
131- 10264
132- 10442
133- 10261
134- 10343
135- 10259
136- 10190
137- 10450
138- 10353
139- 10378
140- 10335
141- 10209
142- 10162
143- 10232
144- 10089
145- 9996
146- 9993
147- 9981
148- 9903
149- 9831
150- 9708
151- 9659
152- 9421
153- 9503
154- 9288
155- 9236
156- 9010
157- 9015
158- 8813
159- 8782
160- 8779
161- 8604
162- 8318
163- 8351
164- 8317
165- 8101
166- 7989
167- 7926
168- 7709
169- 7600
170- 7477
171- 7356
172- 7153
173- 7017
174- 7094
175- 7039
176- 6759
177- 6600
178- 6526
179- 6344
180- 6216
181- 6323
182- 6127
183- 5981
184- 5649
185- 5720
186- 5581
187- 5486
188- 5354
189- 5279
190- 5054
191- 4991
192- 4907
193- 4988
194- 4643
195- 4619
196- 4467
197- 4514
198- 4387
199- 4132
200- 4112
201- 3997
202- 3831
203- 3814
204- 3858
205- 3640
206- 3596
207- 3489
208- 3407
209- 3314
210- 3202
211- 3225
212- 3029
213- 3103
214- 3107
215- 2860
216- 2811
217- 2747
218- 2661
219- 2677
220- 2645
221- 2504
222- 2421
223- 2402
224- 2329
225- 2256
226- 2248
227- 2200
228- 2167
229- 2020
230- 2068
231- 1949
232- 1919
233- 1862
234- 1762
235- 1757
236- 1735
237- 1713
238- 1623
239- 1632
240- 1578
241- 1606
242- 1461
243- 1394
244- 1370
245- 1462
246- 1373
247- 1278
248- 1227
249- 1208
250- 1210
251- 1186
252- 1170
253- 1131
254- 1144
255- 1074
256- 1101
257- 1027
258- 970
259- 935
260- 918
261- 912
262- 891
263- 904
264- 842
265- 849
266- 799
267- 782
268- 793
269- 771
270- 686
271- 695
272- 675
273- 661
274- 713
275- 625
276- 608
277- 613
278- 575
279- 567
280- 580
281- 613
282- 523
283- 545
284- 494
285- 489
286- 504
287- 484
288- 439
289- 463
290- 439
291- 443
292- 423
293- 422
294- 413
295- 375
296- 376
297- 364
298- 333
299- 371
300- 334
301- 306
302- 316
303- 286
304- 309
305- 283
306- 317
307- 270
308- 281
309- 257
310- 266
311- 274
312- 266
313- 221
314- 243
315- 221
316- 230
317- 190
318- 221
319- 177
320- 191
321- 189
322- 195
323- 180
324- 182
325- 167
326- 179
327- 174
328- 170
329- 158
330- 157
331- 148
332- 161
333- 131
334- 132
335- 108
336- 148
337- 120
338- 131
339- 116
340- 119
341- 121
342- 122
343- 99
344- 110
345- 115
346- 96
347- 103
348- 83
349- 102
350- 72
351- 104
352- 73
353- 82
354- 66
355- 83
356- 87
357- 76
358- 69
359- 76
360- 67
361- 61
362- 66
363- 50
364- 43
365- 57
366- 60
367- 53
368- 63
369- 56
370- 56
371- 57
372- 51
373- 56
374- 36
375- 39
376- 47
377- 46
378- 41
379- 41
380- 33
381- 42
382- 37
383- 36
384- 34
385- 32
386- 31
387- 31
388- 34
389- 25
390- 33
391- 24
392- 28
393- 26
394- 19
395- 22
396- 20
397- 28
398- 32
399- 27
400- 22
401- 20
402- 19
403- 22
404- 17
405- 26
406- 20
407- 18
408- 10
409- 10
410- 19
411- 12
412- 13
413- 17
414- 16
415- 13
416- 17
417- 20
418- 18
419- 13
420- 16
421- 12
422- 8
423- 17
424- 11
425- 15
426- 8
427- 9
428- 11
429- 14
430- 11
431- 7
432- 5
433- 12
434- 9
435- 9
436- 10
437- 7
438- 5
439- 6
440- 6
441- 9
442- 5
443- 8
444- 11
445- 5
446- 3
447- 7
448- 3
449- 7
450- 3
451- 5
452- 7
453- 6
454- 1
455- 2
456- 8
457- 9
458- 5
459- 4
460- 2
461- 7
462- 3
463- 4
464- 3
465- 4
466- 7
467- 7
468- 4
469- 4
470- 2
471- 6
472- 5
473- 3
475- 6
476- 4
477- 2
478- 6
479- 3
480- 2
482- 2
483- 3
484- 6
485- 3
486- 5
487- 1
488- 2
489- 3
490- 2
491- 4
492- 2
493- 4
494- 3
496- 2
497- 3
498- 1
499- 1
500- 1
501- 3
502- 1
503- 2
504- 2
505- 1
506- 1
509- 2
510- 1
511- 2
512- 2
513- 2
514- 3
517- 3
518- 2
520- 2
522- 1
524- 1
527- 2
528- 1
529- 1
530- 1
534- 1
535- 2
538- 1
539- 1
542- 1
547- 1
551- 1
566- 1
569- 2
574- 1
596- 1
602- 1
604- 1
607- 2
664- 1
Great post! If you go by the definition in the dictionary, what you just stated is gamblers fallacy but so what? I have seen at least 8 different definitions over time. Those two words are so vague. I consider AP (the broken dream) to also be GAMBLERS FALLACY.
My point as an example, if the number 22 has not hit in the last 180 spins, I consider it DUE. If someone wants to call that gamblers fallacy, knock yourself out, have a blast. :laugh:
Ken
The curve pretty much looks like this nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation) don`t you think ? I would be more surprised if it didn`t. The probability that all numbers havent hit after 644 spins is of course very little, but there is no guarantee that it is the border line. Try run 3.000.000 spins and see if you get a higher number. In reality there are no border line for the amount of spins, it could principially be infinite which would give possibilitys for even higher numbers, theoretcly infinite in lenght,
The only way to convince your self that you cant use the bell curve is to construct some kind of progression that aimed for the middle or the far end of the bell curve and run it on your spins. Remember table limits...... Nothing is ever due.
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will eventually hit?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 500 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 400 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 300 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 200 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 100 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 50 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 37 or 38 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 10 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit in the next 3 spins?
If the #22 has not hit for 180 spins, is it Gambler's Fallacy to expect that it will hit on the next spin?
What are the answers?
VKM
Its all Gamblers Fallacy.
If it is Gambler's Fallacy to expect that the #22 will eventually hit, then Gambler's Fallacy is disconnected from reality.
VKM
I can`t find more than 1 definition of GF anywhere. There are 2 forms of GF, after x amount of spins one could expect "the other side" to start pick up. And then we got the opposit/reverse GF where you would expect the most frequent incident to continue because there could be something wrong with the instrument that you are testing. Like tossing a coin that has been tampered with so it always showed tails. You could go for tails simply because you think that the coin is biased. At least the last form of GF COULD happen to be a positive decision.
PS: Sorry i overlooked the first one VKM. One should of course expect that number, as well as all the others.
You had me worried there for a minute, Kelly. :biggrin:
So, according to probability Red will hit a little less than 50% of the spins and Black will hit a little less than 50% of the spins.
Is it Gamblers Fallacy, for the player during his session, to expect that Red will hit a little less than 50% of the spins and Black will hit a little less than 50% of the spins?
VKM
but it might be another 200or 300 spins before it hits. so how do you win.
[quoteIs it Gamblers Fallacy, for the player during his session, to expect that Red will hit a little less than 50% of the spins and Black will hit a little less than 50% of the spins?
][/quote]
Thats the expectation or the mean. It would be GF if as soon as an unbalance occured, which would be at spin 1 (without zero), to expect anything else than the expectation, as if the unbalance never ocurred.