You math oriented fundamentalists have been right all along. Each spin is an independent event. The odds never change. Past spins can't predict future events. Snowman should be vindicated, once and for all time.
I've said all along that its not about prediction. But now I'm admitting that I was wrong. It is about prediction.
Something that I've never said before in all these years, and this is it. Sometimes past spins act like they are predicting future events. It's just an act. It's not really doing it. But that does not mean that you can't use a mirage that's working, even if it's not real.
I believe that anyone, given the practice and experience, can use anything that works, even if what works is a method that is only temporary and imaginary. Some people might find it difficult to develop the ability to tell the difference between working and not working.
So the math oriented people have been right all along. There's one big problem with that though. They have mostly failed to consider that at times they have let huge opportunities pass right under their noses without ever seeing them. They are more concerned about being right than being winners.
So what made you change your mind?
Quote from: Mike on May 15, 2011, 03:33:43 PM
So what made you change your mind?
I found a better and simpler way to make my point. Saying the trends are working now. Or saying the trends are not working now. And what I'm really saying is that it has nothing to do with math or odds. The real math or odds are completely irrelevant.
Patterns and Rain...
Joe and Tom were walking down the street on a very cloudy day. It started to rain. As Joe started
to open his umbrella, Tom who was noticeably irritated by Joe's actions, asked, "What are you doing?"
Joe, a little confused, replied "It's raining...so I'm opening my umbrella."
"Why would you do that?", asked Tom.
"Because it's raining...", said Joe, not quite sure what Tom was getting at.
"Yeah, you're right, it's raining.", said Tom... "But you don't know how long it will rain... It could
stop raining any minute"... "So why open your umbrella now?", asked Tom, wondering how Joe could be so stupid.
"Well", said Joe, not sure if his explanation would be acceptable to Tom, "the conditions seemed favorable for me to use my umbrella and even though I realize that it might stop raining at any minute, I thought it was worth the chance.... Would you like to share it?"
"Don't be ridiculous.", replied Tom as he turned his collar up.
As they walked along, as chance would have it, it started to rain harder.
What is to be learned from this story?
Joe was a little confused... and Tom was all wet.
VKM
Excellent analogy!
Quote from: VKM on May 15, 2011, 05:08:30 PM
Patterns and Rain...
Joe and Tom were walking down the street on a very cloudy day. It started to rain. As Joe started
to open his umbrella, Tom who was noticeably irritated by Joe's actions, asked, "What are you doing?"
Joe, a little confused, replied "It's raining...so I'm opening my umbrella."
"Why would you do that?", asked Tom.
"Because it's raining...", said Joe, not quite sure what Tom was getting at.
"Yeah, you're right, it's raining.", said Tom... "But you don't know how long it will rain... It could
stop raining any minute"... "So why open your umbrella now?", asked Tom, wondering how Joe could be so stupid.
"Well", said Joe, not sure if his explanation would be acceptable to Tom, "the conditions seemed favorable for me to use my umbrella and even though I realize that it might stop raining at any minute, I thought it was worth the chance.... Would you like to share it?"
"Don't be ridiculous.", replied Tom as he turned his collar up.
As they walked along, as chance would have it, it started to rain harder.
What is to be learned from this story?
Joe was a little confused... and Tom was all wet.
VKM
Like it :thumbsup:
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 15, 2011, 02:22:57 PM
You math oriented fundamentalists have been right all along. Each spin is an independent event. The odds never change. Past spins can't predict future events.
And I've been saying this over and over for how many years? Independent unconnected spins are the reason the game can be beat. The only dependable thing about roulette outcomes are their independence. Thats why RNG's suck, they aren't dependable in the short term. Sure, they look the same in the long term, but a casino won't let you bet on outcomes that are coming next week, they only let you bet on the next spin.
G'day,
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 15, 2011, 02:22:57 PM
I believe that anyone, given the practice and experience, can use anything that works, even if what works is a method that is only temporary and imaginary. Some people might find it difficult to develop the ability to tell the difference between working and not working.
This is what Spike / Cheese has basically said he does, play a separate game and transfer those results to the Roulette game. (this was a paraphrase, and if I missed the point PLEASE correct me Steve)!
Glenn.
In my OPINION.....and no, dont ask me for a math formula please. Each spin all BY ITSELF, I agree for the most part is useless information. A #7 hit, big fu**in deal. Mass numbers over 400,000 spins, what in the hell am I suppose to do with that?
However, we'll say (as an example) the LAST 10-50 numbers, I think is the most important in terms of information that CAN BE (but not guaranteed) valuable information for NEAR future winning bets.
Ken :yahoo:
Let's look at this from an example standpoint. You can have ten different conditions that are descriptive of a continuing trends. Most times these trends pay more than they lose. But there are times when you use them that they lose every time you try them. Is the trend identification bad? The answer is no. The randomness is just not cooperating for winners at these times, that's all. It's part of normal randomness. It's not the mathematical odds correcting things.
The trick is to react to changes. You need to know how to react to information that you are learning about the current conditions. Can you bet the opposite of what's losing? Yes, if that condition is continuing. You can even come up with a method that goes after conditions that are not continuing. If it's not streaking reds or blacks then that is something that you know.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 15, 2011, 09:20:48 PM
The trick is to react to changes. .
There are no 'changes'. With every spin it starts anew. With every spin you start over. Quit assuming you know where anything is headed. Its random, we don't know shit..
Quote from: cheese on May 16, 2011, 10:49:58 AM
There are no 'changes'. With every spin it starts anew. With every spin you start over. Quit assuming you know where anything is headed. Its random, we don't know shit..
More like you don't know jack shit stupid. All you have is your debating repertoire. That is all that you have displayed in the past four years. That is all you can say. You don't know how to read randomness. You just grabbed on to it after I suggested it. I'm the one that has discussed changes with real people. You have discussed and disclosed absolutely nothing. You have contributed nothing. You share nothing.
Here is an example of making you into a dumbshit. If an even chance set of past spins goes from dominating streaks to dominating singles then a change occurs. If using trends for bet selections goes from working very well to working very bad then change occurred. You can't see that. That's because you changed into snowman.
Can you see the change in this Odd / Even chart?
| X | -- 1
| X | -- 2
| X | -- 3
| X | -- 4
| X | -- 5
| X | -- 6
| X | -- 7
| X | -- 8
| X | -- 9
| X | -- 10
| X | -- 11
-------| -- 12
| X | -- 13
| X | -- 14
| X | -- 15
| X | -- 16
| X | -- 17
| X | -- 18
| X | -- 19
| X | -- 20
| X | -- 21
| X | -- 22
| X | -- 23
| X | -- 24
| X | -- 25
| X | -- 26
| X | -- 27
| X | -- 28
| X | -- 29
| X | -- 30
| X | -- 31
| X | -- 32
| X | -- 33
The Guetting strategy uses the change in following series to following chops when they become dominant and back. It does not work. The actual bet placing ends up as a 50/50 game no matter which is the dominant. Its the law of the series that spoils it.
Quote from: Kelly on May 16, 2011, 02:13:34 PM
The Guetting strategy uses the change in following series to following chops when they become dominant and back. It does not work. The actual bet placing ends up as a 50/50 game no matter which is the dominant. Its the law of the series that spoils it.
If you have a method that does not work then you have the wrong method. Keep trying. Staying too long on one side of anything is a mistake. Self control is not an easy thing to execute.
Kelly,
The Guetting progression works to a certain degree. However Monsieur Guetting never gave a hint as to when to leave the table .
He probaly should have taken into consideration that not many of his progression go above the bottom or for that matter of the topof the 3 rd level. ( ar RUN of 6 in a row ) and soon finds himself returning his winnings.
It makes sense on paper but I am still in favor of the regression system.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!
P.S. A RUN of 6 occurs in about 5 % of the total of spins in contrast to a RUN of 2 which are pegged at 25 %
.The author of Monte Carlo comes up with a similar comparison. From 1000- spins the expectancy is about 48 for a run of 6 and for a run of 2 252.
In the case of 252 they represent a combined total of two EC like B & R.
The percentage statistics go to a post byJohno.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 16, 2011, 12:00:39 PMYou don't know how to read randomness. You just grabbed on to it after I suggested it.
Thats just yours meds talking again.. Tomorrow it'll be another story, that aliens showed you about random..
Quote from: cheese on May 16, 2011, 09:43:22 PM
Thats just yours meds talking again.. Tomorrow it'll be another story, that aliens showed you about random.
OK, Pork Pie. What is reading randomness? Please dazzle us all with your brilliance. Go ahead and describe it so that there is no doubt that you understand it. Go ahead and make it crystal clear.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 16, 2011, 10:05:37 PM
What is reading randomness? Please dazzle us all with your brilliance.
What is it? Thats easy. To quote Spike from 2009:
"When you read a page of a book, you learn where the charactors are in the story. When you read a map, you learn where you are in respect to everything else on the map. When you learn to read random in roulette, you'll know whats going in regards to your specific system or method. You'll know if its a good time to bet, or, if you bet every spin, you'll know why you've stalled."
The Reading Random for Idiots version says, correctly reading random tells you where you are at all times. Sometimes it tells you that you're nowhere. Those are the most valuable times, moneywise. Breaking even is a waste of time when you bet every spin like I do.
Look at these two quotes form the very same thread:
Is it me or are these two in conflict with each other? I think they are clearly in conflict with each other. That happens sometimes when all you have is debating repertoire as your only point. Again there is nothing here that exemplifies his answer.
Quote from: cheese on May 16, 2011, 10:49:58 AM
There are no 'changes'. With every spin it starts anew. With every spin you start over. Quit assuming you know where anything is headed. Its random, we don't know shit..
Quote from: cheese on May 17, 2011, 07:32:46 AM
What is it? Thats easy. To quote Spike from 2009:
"When you read a page of a book, you learn where the charactors are in the story. When you read a map, you learn where you are in respect to everything else on the map. When you learn to read random in roulette, you'll know whats going in regards to your specific system or method. You'll know if its a good time to bet, or, if you bet every spin, you'll know why you've stalled."
The Reading Random for Idiots version says, correctly reading random tells you where you are at all times. Sometimes it tells you that you're nowhere. Those are the most valuable times, moneywise. Breaking even is a waste of time when you bet every spin like I do.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2011, 11:42:04 AM
Is it me or are these two in conflict with each other?
I stopped wising you up long ago, quit begging..
With regards to what I've just discovered I would have to say that these two comments are no longer conflicting with what I see now.
I guess it's time to go cold on the forums. There's no point in aggravating people.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2011, 06:59:24 PM
There's no point in aggravating people.
Why change your habit of a lfetime ;)
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2011, 06:59:24 PM
With regards to what I've just discovered I would have to say that these two comments are no longer conflicting with what I see now.
So before you say a fond farewell to ALL forums I guess you just need to thank cheese for pointing you in the right direction ??
Erm.. again.... 8)
Quote from: xman1970 on May 17, 2011, 07:24:16 PM
Why change your habit of a lfetime ;)
Responding to ranting trolls like yourself is more a duty to all good forum etiquette. You are a kicking boy. There will be someone around to give you your attention bottle.
Quote from: xman1970 on May 17, 2011, 07:30:03 PM
So before you say a fond farewell to ALL forums I guess you just need to thank cheese for pointing you in the right direction ??
I need to thank Spike for the clues he gave me more than a full year ago. They were in private emails too. So don't bother looking for this in any forum archives because it's not there. I had the idea all along. I just had something in the way so that I couldn't see it. No big deal here. Spike will not disclose it and I'm not going to describe it or hint at it at all. It's enough that it's a game within the game.
Are you satisfied? Knowing what I know now I would not have taken on those ten students. Some day this will come out. I don't care a wit that Spike gets the credit for it. That's if a large number of people ever discover this that is. Until that time, I'm off to see the Wizard, the wonderful Wizard of Oz. .... Zar doz ... P.S. Goodbye
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2011, 08:00:00 PM
You are a kicking boy.
Boy that's rich.... I have no doubt if I ever had the misfortune to meet you in the real world (the one where you are NOT king) you would have a face that NOBODY would EVER get sick of punching...... ;)
Now for once, be a man of your word & LEAVE all roulette forms like you said you would :good:
After of course, you thank Cheese :o
Bloody Nora!
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2011, 08:10:27 PMKnowing what I know now I would not have taken on those ten students. Some day this will come out. I don't care a wit that Spike gets the credit for it. That's if a large number of people ever discover this that is. Until that time, I'm off to see the Wizard, the wonderful Wizard of Oz. .... Zar doz ... P.S. Goodbye
Translation: He's bored and tired of getting nowhere and losing his ass in the casino, so he's pretending he 'discovered' something so he can take a break. How many times have we seen this, I lost count.