I have an idea in my head on how to play red/black over 100 spins, but first I need some assistance.
We all know red and black is very close to a 50/50 bet. But....
In 100 spins, what is the likely hood someone will see 99 red and 1 black? Or 90 red and 10 black? Or 80 red and 20 black? or 70 Red and 30 black?
I am interested in finding out the highest uneven distribution possible.
I can beat Heads and Tails but I cant beat red or black.
I hope you will success.
Say for example a worse case scenario is we play for 100 spins, we are playing 1 unit per spin on nothing but black.
After spin 50 we have encountered nothing but 50 red spins and we are down -50 units. Say we then play another 20 spins at 1 unit on black, and again the wheel has spun nothing but red and we are now down -70 units. That is 70 straight red spins and we are down -70 units. (improbable)
If we now raise our bet to 3 units per spin on black for the remaining 30 spins, and we get 30 blacks in a row.... we finish at +20 units.
Using this approach; we could flat bet a certain number of spins. If we "picked" the correct color (R/B), we would quit after set number of spins with a profit. If we are down into the negative, we then raise our flat bet and continue a certain number of set spins and quit in profit. If we are still down we raise our bet further. This is almost like a 4 step Grand Martingale over 100 spins.
Bet 1 unit per spin, spins 1-25. Quit if in profit
Bet 2 units per spin, spins 26-50. Quit if in profit.
Bet 3 units per spin, spins 51-75. Quit if in profit.
Bet 4 units per spin, spins 76-100. Quit if in profit.
This is an example, and would need to be modified. To many a "unit" does not seem like much, but if you are playing with $100 chips as your "unit" or $1,000 chips as your "unit" you are on your way.
I dont see how you can? Are you looking for a progression or syetem that could survive a string of for example 9 Reds or blacks, which would be manageable, is that what you are working on?
Quote from: Kagatori on June 08, 2011, 07:13:33 PM
I dont see how you can? Are you looking for a progression or syetem that could survive a string of for example 9 Reds or blacks, which would be manageable, is that what you are working on?
No! I'm looking at long term distribution. I'm not looking at the short term, i'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino. Over the long term there is balance. Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds. At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even. I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.
Ah I see, could be tricky, but good luck! Ill try and give it some thought.
Hi Barcode,
some food for thought for you,
have you thought about playing the decision before last over 100 spins ?????
Yes, I have alot of different methods for bet selection that are far better than simply picking red or black. I'm just using playing a steady of red or black as an extreme example.
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on June 08, 2011, 06:53:58 PM
I have an idea in my head on how to play red/black over 100 spins, but first I need some assistance.
We all know red and black is very close to a 50/50 bet. But....
In 100 spins, what is the likely hood someone will see 99 red and 1 black? Or 90 red and 10 black? Or 80 red and 20 black? or 70 Red and 30 black?
I am interested in finding out the highest uneven distribution possible.
Well i have some ideas - why not play random against random using your previos 100 trails with your future 100 trails.
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll link=topic=18831. msg137236#msg137236 date=1307571404
No! I'm looking at long term distribution. I'm not looking at the short term, I'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino. Over the long term there is balance.
Be careful!
There "can" be a balance and more than likely it will be the percentages rather than the absolute numbers.
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll link=topic=18831. msg137236#msg137236 date=1307571404Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds. At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even. I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.
You are asking a binomial distribution question where there is just success or failure.
an online calculator can be found HERE: hxxp: stattrek. com/Tables/Binomial. aspx
I just use excel.
with 00 wheel and 18/38 for even bets the mean (average) will be 47. 4 and the standard deviation is ~5. 0
so about 2/3 of the time the results will be between 42 and 52
19 out of 20 or 95% between 37 and 57
99. 7% (3sd) or 997 out of 1000 trials the range will be between 32 and 62.
Depends on what you are looking for. anything less than 32 per 100 would be a rare event, but could still happen
Hope this helps.
I somewhere read that in 100 spins an even money bet doesn't appear less than 40 times. still the problem remains that you don't know when it appears within the cycle.. >:(
cheers
hans
Quote from: HansHuckebein link=topic=18831. msg137263#msg137263 date=1307621407
I somewhere read that in 100 spins an even money bet doesn't appear less than 40 times. still the problem remains that you don't know when it appears within the cycle. . >:(
cheers
hans
I agree it is about "when" but it is also about the short term distributions. Betting for a particular distribution can be rewarding if your guess is close. No better off than a flat bettor and just betting one side if you are wrong.
18/38; 40 or more 0. 94300237 39 or less 0. 05699763 or about 1 in 18, not that uncommon.
18/37; 40 or more 0. 96683460 39 or less 0. 03316540 or about 1 in 30, again not that uncommon.
I ran a 1 million player simulation and showed the results for "black" hits for 100 spins
here is the distribution:
Hits freq freq/100
25 4 0.00%
26 7 0.00%
27 16 0.00%
28 38 0.00%
29 64 0.01%
30 173 0.02%
31 361 0.04%
32 624 0.06%
33 1226 0.12%
34 2215 0.22%
35 3526 0.35%
36 5858 0.59%
37 9106 0.91%
38 13743 1.37%
39 19560 1.96%
40 27105 2.71%
41 35554 3.56%
42 44697 4.47%
43 54655 5.47%
44 63556 6.36%
45 71396 7.14%
46 77212 7.72%
47 79773 7.98%
48 78935 7.89%
49 75400 7.54%
50 69474 6.95%
51 61036 6.10%
52 51967 5.20%
53 42541 4.25%
54 33164 3.32%
55 24747 2.47%
56 17994 1.80%
57 12809 1.28%
58 8407 0.84%
59 5434 0.54%
60 3293 0.33%
61 1965 0.20%
62 1120 0.11%
63 615 0.06%
64 335 0.03%
65 158 0.02%
66 77 0.01%
67 35 0.00%
68 13 0.00%
69 6 0.00%
70 5 0.00%
71 1 0.00%
Close to expectation where 47. 4 is the mean (average) and 4. 99 the standard deviation.
4 players saw black only 25 times in 100 spins. If they bet black all 100 spins they lost 50 units total.
Enjoy
The biggest concern for me is not the soundness of your idea, but the frequency that it will give you any meaningful, playable opportunities. Standard deviation for the 100 spins R/B is 5, meaning that just over 2/3 of your series will be withing 45 and 55 of either EC that you choose. If you are at this point near a true 50/50 distribution, there will be nothing for you to play while you watch 100 spins pass (which can take a long time, depending on how you play: ie, live or RNG). 2 standard deviatons indicate that 95% of all 100 spin series will give you between 40 and 60 of each EC, giving you very little opportunity to recover any losses you take at the beginning of your betting period.
@guido
thanks for providing the simulation data. :thumbsup:
There are quiet a lot of sessions below 40 hits. I think it shows one more time that statements about roulette that come along as "facts" are mostly myths. only believe them after they have been tested seriously by yourself.
cheers
hans
Quote from: guido1 on June 09, 2011, 12:47:33 PM
I agree it is about "when" but it is also about the short term distributions. Betting for a particular distribution can be rewarding if your guess is close. No better off than a flat bettor and just betting one side if you are wrong.
18/38; 40 or more 0. 94300237 39 or less 0. 05699763 or about 1 in 18, not that uncommon.
18/37; 40 or more 0. 96683460 39 or less 0. 03316540 or about 1 in 30, again not that uncommon.
I ran a 1 million player simulation and showed the results for "black" hits for 100 spins
here is the distribution:
Hits freq freq/100
25 4 0.00%
26 7 0.00%
27 16 0.00%
28 38 0.00%
29 64 0.01%
30 173 0.02%
31 361 0.04%
32 624 0.06%
33 1226 0.12%
34 2215 0.22%
35 3526 0.35%
36 5858 0.59%
37 9106 0.91%
38 13743 1.37%
39 19560 1.96%
40 27105 2.71%
41 35554 3.56%
42 44697 4.47%
43 54655 5.47%
44 63556 6.36%
45 71396 7.14%
46 77212 7.72%
47 79773 7.98%
48 78935 7.89%
49 75400 7.54%
50 69474 6.95%
51 61036 6.10%
52 51967 5.20%
53 42541 4.25%
54 33164 3.32%
55 24747 2.47%
56 17994 1.80%
57 12809 1.28%
58 8407 0.84%
59 5434 0.54%
60 3293 0.33%
61 1965 0.20%
62 1120 0.11%
63 615 0.06%
64 335 0.03%
65 158 0.02%
66 77 0.01%
67 35 0.00%
68 13 0.00%
69 6 0.00%
70 5 0.00%
71 1 0.00%
Close to expectation where 47. 4 is the mean (average) and 4. 99 the standard deviation.
4 players saw black only 25 times in 100 spins. If they bet black all 100 spins they lost 50 units total.
Enjoy
Thank you for your test. Let's take the test where someone who bets nothing but black for 100 spins and it only appears 25 times. Say for convience sake, the first 75 spins are red. We are now down -75 units. If we were to now bet the last 25 spins at 4 units per spin instead of 1 unit per spin (+100), we would come out AHEAD +25!
This is what I'm after. Taking the absolute worst possiblities, the absolute worst distribution, and still managing to make it a overall winner after 100 spins (flat betting).
Now, it is highly unlikely we will see the first 75 spins simply red, and then bet the remaining 25 spins black. We don't know when the black will start hitting. So our goal would have to be to flat bet a LARGE % of the spins and evaluate the results.
If we flat bet red for 50 spins at 1 unit each spin and we are in the negative by a large amount....... We can then bet the remaining 50 spins at a higher unit to try to catch the wave of the blacks that are coming.
I went down that road before but never reached my destination/ a solution. of course this doesn't proof there could be one. :smile:
as long as we don't know when the wins appear I guess it's kind of like those "evil wins" in a progression, the ones that raise our stakes but never take us back to an overall plus. in the end we would have been better off and lost less if the wins hadn't occured at all. :P
cheers
hans
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on June 08, 2011, 07:16:44 PM
No! I'm looking at long term distribution. I'm not looking at the short term, I'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino. Over the long term there is balance. Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds. At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even. I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.
and one day you will see 64 blacks 36 reds in first 100 spins...and then you starting confidently ride on reds,,,,but again the same thing......62 blacks 38 reds.....and what are you doing next...probably rising to 2 units next 100 bets.....well you had to rise again on 3 units next 100 bets cause you lost once more.....and bingo you LOST AGAIN..........MY FRIEND,100 spins is far to small sample.I remember few years back was playing B/E vers.R/O and once R/O took dominance 58/42 in first 100 spins.......it took me almost a week to recover....playing it from first to the very last spin every night on the same wheel..........thats why I have written about your idea....don't play like that.
With my 'Holy Grail' system and using FLAT BETTING ONLY im averaging 10 units per 60 bets placed over 100 spins.
Im willing to prove it via testing - send me 25 sets of 24 numbers. I will then tell you where to bet for the next 12 spins for each set.
You can then judge for yourself
the search is over ...