Here is a question I asked at the Wiz site. I can always tell when its a good question based on if I get few responses. People are so inconsistent when it comes to GF.
A) All 38 numbers are in a hat. I blindly pick one number, its the #17. I go to the casino and make a small bet on the 17, for ONE spin, never bet again and then went home. Did I just use gamblers fallacy?
B) One day later I change my mind, went back for ONE MORE SPIN of the 17. Did I NOW use gamblers fallacy?
Ken
Hmmm that wasn't so hard as your first one. And my answer would relate to your thinking. Did you go back the second day thinking it was due as it didn't win for you the previous day?? Or did you go back cause that was you lucky number?
Its simply based on the fact of blindly choosing the 17 the prior day, nothing more.
Ken
An oldie but a goodie but I have to post it again. I love the different answers.
Gamblers fallacy will never help you? Hmmm
I'll pick 3 numbers for you and 3 numbers for myself, all flat betting.
I have tracked the last 600 spins. The 3 numbers I choose for you, are the 3 with the fewest hits. (by the way, there is no darn bias in the wheel)
For myself, whatever 3 numbers have three hits on it, most recently.....in the last 'X' number of spins. In other words, presently hot.
We keep betting until 2 of our 3 numbers gets a hit, that's the winner. If we did this experiment 500 times, it SHOULD come close to you winning 250 times and I win 250 times, correct?
(Close to 250, I'm not saying it would be perfect)
Who would say 'YES Ken', it would be around 250 and 250 over and over again?
Ken
It's a good job Turbogenius is not around. He would post a million graphs showing you how sleepers come out just the same as hot numbers. :rtfm:
Not saying I agree with him either.
I'm a hot number fan, can't help it. I bet one number per spin these days.
Ken
In case some of you do not read posts at VLS2, here is a HOT (pardon the punn) topic of mine >> nolinks://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8747.0 (nolinks://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8747.0)
I have a question guys.....it'll be kind of tough to answer, you might not even want to answer and to be honest, the question is a bit rhetorical, I somewhat know the answer.
A lot of us here will agree that betting on a couple (whatever) HOT numbers is 'better' to bet on compared to the cold numbers. Like I said though, its all in the wording of the method/test.
Anyways, why is it when I bring this very SAME subject up at the Wizard board, it gets shot down, laughed at, flagged (deleted) etc.
Like I said, the goofs over there like to post in unison, all agreeing with each other (LoL).
I think some of them LIE when they tell me they don't agree with my view(s). If I had a nickel for everytime I heard......"it makes no difference which numbers you bet", I'd be a millionaire today.
Ken
I wouldnt know why it gets deleted never been there or heard of the place. (clearly havent been around long enough LOL). Sometimes i wonder my self it would make a difference? If i take 37 spins and i bet on the 4 hottest numbers or if after 37 spins i just bet on any 4 numbers, how similar the results would be, or would they be far off. . I suppose i ahould just do a test on RX and see what happens.
But i do wonder myself(obviously you dont as you have something that works for you)
QuoteI suppose I ahould just do a test on RX and see what happens
Crack on and post the results then.
PERFECT example of what I'm talking about. This quote is from a pro (Frank Scoblete) >>>
If I play a number long enough in roulette will it come up? One of the typical gambling systems in roulette is to look at numbers that have not hit, and say, "well if I bet the number that hasn't come up, sooner or later it'll come up" - this is a fallacy. That number may not come up for many hours or it might come up on the very next spin. Roulette is random, and betting in this way is risky. <<<
You ever notice that when the pro's talk about gamblers fallacy, the example they use is almost always the SAME one? Sticking to one number because its DUE. How often do the, "Hey, its gamblers fallacy" guys talk about the kind of things we discuss? My point once again, not every method can be linked to gamblers fallacy. The people that don't win with this game just so happen to use that phrase the most often.....Hmmm, kind of odd.
Ken
all systems carry the same risk.
Quote from: pins on January 26, 2012, 01:53:01 AM
all systems carry the same risk.
Meaning what? I dont follow.
Ken
I guess I'm a mind reader, thanks for the reply pins.
Ken
There are VERY FEW guarantees in roulette, something that is 99% a SURE THING, even the Advantage-play (cough) goofs can't deny this >> In a short period of spins.......25?....37/38?.......there will be number(s) that will get 3 hits on it. Why not take this 99% fact and *TRY* to make something of it? Now don't even tell me, a person witnessed every number hitting in 37 spins. (LoL)
I know the anti-method AGENDA is strong but come on. Look how many methods there are out there (including my own) that are NOT 99% guaranteed something will happen. If a person really has their s**t together, they can come quite close to having a Hol. Gra. with repeaters (it must be flat betting, no progressions).
Ken
Anyone who disagrees with this, please chime in >> Within 37/38 spins (most likely less than that) we will have
number(s) with 3 hits on it. Anyone disagree?
Ken
As goofy as I think MauiSunset is, I do agree with what he said in regards to AP (cough) >>>
Advantage Play" (APAdvantage Play - the wacky idea that studying the Roulette wheel and the dealer will help you with Roulette - maybe 200 years ago but not today) is a gambling term that means you can gain the advantage over Roulette by studying the wheel and the croupier/dealer (I use the term dealer – I'm an American).
You can tell these folks are at your table since they all wear tin-foil hats – they are all wackos; they are living a life from 200 years ago. They have a smug attitude about themselves that they've discovered the Holy Grail and you are just too stupid to appreciate them.
Basically they write down numbers trying to find a "defect" in the wheel and/or the "dealer's signature" of spinning the ball. Never mind the fact that in 200+ years the Roulette wheel is now so highly balanced, by computer lathes, that no amount of analysis of the spins will tell you anything. The Roulette wheels are swapped out in a random sequence at most casinos and there is no way to tell if the wheel at your table today was there a month ago. Also, the dealer is swapped out every hour for a break and a new dealer has a new "signature".
AP gamblers have a cult following – they have given up on statistics and live in a world that doesn't exist – maybe 200+ years ago AP worked but not today. Also, AP Roulette players shun away from computerized Roulette games (Random Number Generators – RNGRandom Number Generator - hardware or software that generates random numbers) and must play on live Roulette tables.
Don't listen to anything they have to say – it's all psychobabble.
what you are saying is. forget all systems. and methods. just pick any number that pops into your head. you have as good a chance as the( EXPERTS) :sarcastic:
"what you are saying is. forget all systems. and methods" >>> Can you copy/paste where I said that, thanks.
Ken
@pins >> If you get a chance, can you answer my other question from a few days ago?
Ken
I can name at least 9 different anti-method people, when asked a question from me, they take off. WTF?
Ken
my mistake. it was maui sunset.
.....and reply #11?
Ken
all systems carry the same risk. i am at a loss. all systems will fail. if you play long enough you will lose. as sure as night follows day. i will say that your method of play is one of the best. playing for large stakes. all these systems trying to win a couple of units are a waste of time.
G'day,
Quote from: pins on January 29, 2012, 11:15:22 PM
all systems carry the same risk. I am at a loss. all systems will fail. if you play long enough you will lose. as sure as night follows day. .........................................all these systems trying to win a couple of units are a waste of time.
Incorrect!!!
Glenn.
Quote from: MiniBaccarat on January 30, 2012, 12:16:51 AM
G'day,
Incorrect!!!
Glenn.
There's nothing we can do Glenn. Some have been killed so bad from roulette in the past, they are in THIS STAGE of "You can't win". If they can not win, you can not win.
Then 'they' say....well show me, blah blah blah. I know how every one of these conversations turns out.
Ken
i have won and lost at roulette. at times its was my fault the gambler bug and silly bets.. i still think that you will get the run from hell no matter what method you use. backing five numbers and 60 spins without a win. if you are honest some days nothing works.; good luck
Money management of the proper bankroll relative to the method played is the key to long term success. No sweat and no surprises. Well disciplined players know when to get away from a table or from a casino.
It should not matter if it is the small pre- established loss or the accomplished win goal . :ok:
.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
but what if you lose when you return to the table.
You should schedule 3 sessions and attempt to win 2 out of 3. If you lose all 3 sessions: toughshittski. It was not your day . :diablo:
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!