After doing some more research into corner bets (My first post about it can be found here: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=19769.0[/color]]nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=19769.0 (nolinks://[color=blue)), I've found another intriguing occurrence.
But, rather than producing a loss of -$1, as in my first research, this bet produces a profit of +$5.
It is similar to my first bet, where I am only covering 11% of the table with a corner bet. Remember, if I continue to flat bet like this for 100 spins, betting $1 per spin, my expected loss is only -$1 (see my previous research to verify this...)
However, what happens when I increase my bet by 2 on every third bet?
It looks like this:
I still have an 89% chance of losing. Every 2 out of 3 spins I am betting $1 on my corner bet. Every 1 out of 3 spins I bet $3 on my corner. So I have a 2/3 chance of losing $1, and a 1/3 chance of losing $3. So in my 89 out of 100 losses, 67% of those losses will be for $1, and 33% of those losses will be for $3. 67% of 89 = 59.63, or 60 times out of 89 I will lose only $1. The other 33%, or 29 times I will lose $3. So my total expected loss for those 89 losses is (60 x 1) + (29 x 3) = 60 + 87 = -$147.
Now, I have only an 11% chance of my corner bet winning. And on those 11 times out of 100 it does hit, there is again a 67% chance that it will be a single win, and a 33% chance that it will be a triple win. So on those 11 wins, 11 x 67% = 7; and 7 x (9 - 1=8 chips profit) = +$56. The other 33% of those 11 wins - which is 4 of those 11 wins - I will win 3 x 9 = 27 - 3 = +$24. And 4 x $24 = +$96.
So in summary, when I win my 11 times, 7 of those 11 times I will profit $8 - giving me +$56; and 4 of those 11 times I will profit $24 - giving me +$96. So all together, when I win 11 times, my expected profit is $56 + $96 = +$152.
Now when I take my +$152 profit and subtract my -$147 in losses incurred, I get +$152 - $147 = +$5.
You'll want to verify all of this on your own with a calculator. But as you can see, the idea of only betting on 1 corner, and increasing it to $3 every third bet has some exciting potential.
Now, obviously I know that in the real world, things are not going to be as neat and tidy as I've outlined here. And, in fact, the math also shows that the more you continue to bet in this way, the more your expected loss will approach and, yes, surpass that of the house edge.
But in sessions of 100 or less, I think the math speaks for itself.
I also find it interesting that the higher that second bet is, the more profits I can potentially come away with.
For instance, when I make every third bet a $4 bet on my corner (instead of a $3) bet, my profit potentially increases to +$8. And when I make it a $5 bet instead of a $4 bet, I gain another $3 profit on top of that, making the profit potential +$11.
In fact, every time I add 1 extra dollar to that second bet, I find my profit potential gains by another +$3.
Strangely, everything breaks down into losses as soon as I try to bet on more than just the one corner. Even trying unique combinations of bets only makes things worse. For instance, when I try to bet on a Dozen and a corner within that Dozen, the losses quickly begin to mount.
As far as I can tell, only the single corner bet has these peculiarities...