I'm very new to roulette and this forum. - Looks great! - But the guy who introduced me (my mentor) is very experienced, and is always telling me that there is no way that the wheel or that little ball can remember even the last spin, let alone what happened in a sequence of previous spins! - He says that each spin is absolutely independent of all others, so that what is going to happen in the next spin or sequence will be unrelated. - But, in looking around this forum, it seems that most, if not all systems rely on more or less predictable patterns persisting into the future, all arising from (or at least influenced by) previous events. And there seems to be more than just a suggestion that once started, a pattern will tend to persist to a predictable degree.
I don't understand this! - Somebody must be wrong? - What's the real story?
All help will be gratefully appreciated.
HewieB
Hewie.......
I'll take a whack at it! You understand, what I write is my opinion formed by my experience.
First I'll address the memory issue. The wheel and ball are inert objects. They can no more have a memory than this chair I'm sitting in. If they could remember, they would have to make decisions. What use is a memory if one doesn't act on it in some way?
One author I read said this: The wheel has no memory but we must treat it as if it did. Why would someone say that? Because the wheel sometimes acts as if it had a memory.
Many of these systems are based on the theory or the "gambler's fallacy" that if red has missed ten times in a row, red is due. It is and it isn't! Yes, it's due to balance out that inequity (unless the ten in a row was balancing out some prior inequity that happened yesterday), but when? Maybe next spin or maybe tomorrow; we can never know and many have gone broke betting for that black to appear.
Some people make this statement: This is what the wheel is doing. You can never truthfully make that statement. You can make this one: This is what the wheel was doing, and we don't really know what it will do from now on.
Many systems are based on the wheel following a trend. What we're hoping is that we spot a trend early enough to jump aboard and win a few spins before we lose one. This is the basis for the VLS Lw Methodology. One might be surprised how many times the wheel will repeat a pattern. We see it twice and we hope for a third repeat. Do we get it? Sometimes.
One of the things I can personally testify about is repeaters. Repeaters seem to encourage other numbers to repeat. I know they don't, but many systems are based on "wakers"--numbers that have slept for a time and then wake up. Many times they repeat very soon. The wheel will produce no repeaters and then a flurry of them. Every third number is the same.
Watch the wheel; it will never cease to amaze you!
Sam
Hello HewieB.
Believe me, I am so glad to have found this forum. Before VLS, I was getting viruses in my computer going to fake forums and buying useless junk trying to learn roulette.
(Opinion): Unless you are clairvoyant or have the ability to control the wheel or the ball, Roulette will prove a real challenge to conquer.
These guys at VLS have helped me immensely improve my game.
They also provide humor to break the tension that can build while playing the game.
As far as balls having memories, only RNG balls have memories, (which are designed to hurt you).
Roulette is a game of chance. We comfort each other when we get frustrated. (Remember to have fun playing :)
Thanks for your reply TwoCats.
One of the things I can personally testify about is repeaters. Repeaters seem to encourage other numbers to repeat. I know they don't, but many systems are based on "wakers"--numbers that have slept for a time and then wake up. Many times they repeat very soon. The wheel will produce no repeaters and then a flurry of them. Every third number is the same.
Watch the wheel; it will never cease to amaze you!
It seems that if I 'watch the wheel' for long enough, I will observe results patterns, which are then followed by other results patterns. - Like 'Prior Patterns (P)' followed by 'Future Patterns (F)' - and if I see them often enough, I might come to regard them as being related. But probably I would not be similarly impressed when (P) fails to be followed by (F), as it would not stand out as clearly in a spin analysis.
Detecting these relationships would be interesting (and even Fun for people with twisted minds like me!), but to regard them as 'systems' seems to require me to believe that (P) causes, or at least encourages, (F) - but there is not a shred of evidence to support the idea that the mechanism of the roulette wheel posesses either the required 'memory' nor the 'desire' to perpetuate any given sequence of patterns. And I know enough about 'probability' to see that even if (F) frequently follows (P), it does not mean that (P) caused (F) to happen!
So, apparently one needs to 'believe' in a totally mysterious set of cause/effect relationships, which belong in the realms of mysticism, religion, superstition and magic - not in the realm of objective management of known facts!? - And then go out and bet real (unimaginary!) money on it all!
I don't think that this is what I am looking for!
My 'mentor', who I mentioned in the opening post in this thread, is a retired computer engineer (since the 1960's) who has in fact devised a roulette system which effectively 'tilts the table' away from the 'house edge' to produce a potential profit - and has done it by manipulating the hard factual characteristics within the European Roulette betting rules, and random spin results, - not by calling upon woolly and illogical belief systems. And I was hoping to find ways to extend those principles via the wealth of experience represented in this Forum.
I'm not here to promote anything, but he has in fact written an E-Book on this subject, if anyone wants to PM me.
Thanks for your interest and (hopefully!) contributions. HewieB.
Hello HewieB, [smiley=welcome/welcome.gif]
There are 3 accepted ways to beat the wheel:
- Dealer signature.
- Bias.
- Visual Ballistics.
They all deal with the physics of the game.
There are other ways like relying on "streaks", seeing what happens, make some "tester" bets, and do the best to ride those streaks. Plus becoming a "money manager" (those whom while not getting the positive edge flat betting rely on progressions -positive or negative- to stand a chance).
None of these non-accepted ways is regarded as valid, but yet many of the players using them can face very good streaks. Mind you, somebody could be winning his lifetime and still be declared a loser, oficially only facing a temporary streak on his favor, as his betting method when bruteforced with an ever increasing set of numbers has no other option than fall apart, but believe such claims doesn't matter for the successful player...
The most extreme example I know is Manucher's system which albeit being on profit for samples as large as 600 million spins is considered a loser system nonetheless. In fact everything past the "accepted 3" mentioned above is considered a loser!
But hey, no player would care about betting a losing system that makes him win a lifetime; question being: when will it start to lose? It can happen from day 1 :-\
Yes, it is still a gamble, but there are smarter ways to play than the martingale, which with a bit of luck can help a player to at least stand a chance, make a win, or at least knowing when to quit if roulette isn't for him and he can't stand a chance (too many negative deviations towards him).
All in all, this is a wonderful game to play where players aren't trying to make the others lose (no sense of great rivalry as in other games like poker, as we are all at the same side of the bank).
In fact, many here rejoice the idea of helping others succeed. this forum is based on each one sharing what he/she can to increase the members and reader's knowledge pool in order to help in standing a chance and using the smarter ways to bet, which at least aren't as bad as the "martingalesque" ones.
Kind regards from a friend.
Victor
hello hewie!!
welcome to the forum.
you have made the best decision of your roulette life by joining here! congratulations. I can promise u , that u dont need to go anywhere else..
allow me to intorduce myself, my name is anand, and I am victors student. until not very long ago, I was a rookie too. I am still a beginner but I can share with u a few things as simply as I can put it
lets take the example of red/black
since both of them are equal, probability says that they should each come 50% of the time.. while it is "possible" that red may come 100% of the time, and black 0% , because like u said the ball and wheel have no memory etc....it will never happen "practically"
why ? because just like red is being favored at one time, black also covers 18 numbers, hence 50% of the board, so how long can one take it away from black too ??
it has to come
so ok, we know that black and red will both come. NOW the other way around..lets take 100 spins.. though red/black both have equal prbability ie 50% , it is impossible that black and red will both show 50 results exactly out of 100..maybe once in 20-30 sessions "luckily"...but as a general rule, though their probability is 50% they will "actually" never come 50%..
now out of 100 spins it could be
50 red - 50 black
55 red - 45 black
60 red - 40 black
65 red - 35 black etc..and the other way round in favor of black
the amount to which maybe red or black deviates from the ideal percentage of 50% is known as the standard deviation..pls read up on standard deviation..
so we have understood three things..
1. red - black should come 50%
2. they will never come 50% - 50% exact or 100% - 0%
3. they will come somewhere in between that, hence it means that one thing(red) is hitting more than the other (black)
so if in a sample of spins one thing is coming more than the other, it obviously means that at different parts of the sample, the dominant event is "concentrating" or "clumping" together in parts and the other is "dispering" or "being scarce".. it is also possible that within the sample the black(loser) clumps at one particulare section, which means that it disperses more at the other parts of the sample.
because no matter what maths and probability says, red and black can never come
R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R B R ..etc
it may come like
R B B R R R B R B R R B R R R R B B etc
so since it comes in "clumps" like that we try to check if we are able to spot that "clump" and try to play it
if we find out that the "clump" was a fake and is not hitting, we try to stay alive by losing least.. and if the clump was actually there, we try to win the most..
one cant explain why things "clump"..its just the nature of the game :)
and win and loss is never absolute..it is always a net result..a win is about winning more and losing less.. so be prepared for those losses..
i think what differentiates an expert from others is their ability to spot and see correctly what is happening and play the favourable event,, and most importantly to back out when they realise its a no-win situation..yes, those "Sessions from hell" will also come
We can NEVER predict what will come more than others (unless the table is biased etc).. we just try to win by piggy-backing on the very nature of the game
This is what my teachers victor and sam have taught me.. and I swear by them.. I have a coaching thread which u will find under VLS personal section at the end of the home page..read it thoroughly.. if u would like to learn under anyone specifically , ask them, and if u are sincere, many will help.. including me :)...sam is one of the best testers around so he is very very valuable in terms of stripping a system down to its underwear..
@vls,sam
if I have guided wrong in this post pls modify it since it is advice about how to play..and im not sure I qualify in that department yet
welcome to the forum once again my friend
your friend
anand
ps.. I have used red-black just as an example. you can use it for even bets, column, dozens, streets, lines, straight ups whatever.. its always about one event versus the other..
i have said red black as 50% but in actuality it will 48.6% , not counting 0, the house edge for explanation purposes only..
Hi Anand,
You learn fast for sure!
Yes, by using money management we effectively try to lose the least on dispersion and squeeze that concentration of hits. Perhaps by building our "timeline" of events we are accused of using non-existent things ::), but who cares as long as it works for the "timeline players" :)
The nature of the game is observable and measurable; those times where hits concentrate and where hits are disperse are crystal-clear and perfectly spottable.
Granted, we may not know what is coming next spin, but can't we really measure if we are facing dispersion and act in "dispersion mode" being protective to our units... or measure at current N-spin trams we are facing a concentration of hits, and try to ride it... is it really impossible to use current status information at the current cycle (36/numbers covered) to act accordingly only because a cycle comprises more than a single spin?
Sadly with the 1-spin framework, these multi-spin events aren't even there (as in roulette is considered as only 1 spin long, any relations that you observe between spins are not happening in the accepted way of thought).
Anand
You will be a fine dispersion surfer / concentration rider. Congrats on the fine post.
Kind regards.
Victor
I briefly mentioned an E-Book written by my mentor in an earlier post, and it has created some interest.
He really intends to sell it on ClickBank in due course, but I have permission to release free copies for review and comment by knowlegable people, for a limited time.
It's called 'Businesslike Roulette' and may be read at - sysgam.com/rsc/ebook.html - which is a very temporary URL - so get in before he decides to remove it!
I think it's pretty good - but then I'm pretty much of a 'newbie' - so see what YOU think.