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Main => General Board => Topic started by: mido1 on October 21, 2008, 07:23:07 AM

Title: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: mido1 on October 21, 2008, 07:23:07 AM
Here i want the help of  a really good math genius....if he understands what i want to say?
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: bliss on October 21, 2008, 08:57:23 AM
As it stands, the question is an oxymoron. One definition of "Random" is - "The impossibility of a successful gambling system", so the answer to your question is no.

You can make a profit playing a random game, but only if the price is right. ie; you need to have "value" in the bet. For example, if a random coin flip game was offered which paid $1.10 on a win and $1.00 on a loss, you would still make money even though you haven't actually "beaten" anything, but who on earth would offer such a game?

Statistics and probability (in the case of random events), are only descriptive, that is, they only tell you what has happened, not what will happen. There are statistical techniques which can help to determine whether events are truly random, in which case you may be able to beat the odds if you can detect a departure from randomness (as long as the odds aren't too unfavourable), but again, if that's the case, you haven't "beaten" randomness.

randomness + unfavourable odds = "impossible to beat"
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: Kon-Fu-Sed on October 21, 2008, 09:36:42 AM
Hello Mido,

The way I see it, it has not yet been shown by anyone.
And I agree with bliss.

May I recommend my own doc in the reference area:
Roulette Probabilities Made Easier
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/roulette-probability-made-easier-t2193/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/roulette-probability-made-easier-t2193/)


Regards,
KFS
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: JHM on October 21, 2008, 01:06:04 PM
Quote from: bliss on October 21, 2008, 08:57:23 AM

randomness + unfavourable odds = "impossible to beat"


nolinks://vlsroulette.com/general-board/interview-roulette-pro-christian-kaisan/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/general-board/interview-roulette-pro-christian-kaisan/)

Again, you said?
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: bliss on October 21, 2008, 01:07:01 PM
QuoteI discovered the above quote to be false a good few years ago at best you can call it theory = fallacy !!!
Mr Chips, I expected nothing less from you, you're getting very non-random in your old age!  ;D

I've been putting it off, but there's no avoiding it, I'm going to have to test your system for myself.  >:D

Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: bliss on October 21, 2008, 01:12:04 PM
QuoteAgain, you said?

JHM,

I stand by what I said, Kaisan was not betting against random, it makes all the difference in the world.

Ask Kelly or Herb, they know more about the details of this kind of play than I ever will.
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: JHM on October 21, 2008, 01:19:11 PM
Quote from: bliss on October 21, 2008, 01:12:04 PM
QuoteAgain, you said?

JHM,

I stand by what I said, Kaisan was not betting against random, it makes all the difference in the world.

Ask Kelly or Herb, they know more about the details of this kind of play than I ever will.

I will  ;)
Title: Re: Can Random be beat by statistics and probability?
Post by: bliss on October 21, 2008, 02:56:49 PM
QuoteMaths people are afraid to touch it I wonder why?

I would guess that most people don't understand it (and most Maths people wouldn't be interested anyway). How many people have actually given it a fair test, apart from Sam? He's the only member I know of who has reported favourable results (or indeed, any kind of results).