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Main => Roulette & Gambling framework => Topic started by: gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 05:43:32 PM

Title: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 05:43:32 PM
Spike said: People are always saying they bet the 'trend' and never say what a trend is.
[colorsb]
Is this a trend? BBBBBBBBBB

This? BBB P PPP P BBB P

This? BB PP BB PP BB PP

This? BB P BB P BB P BB P

This? B P B P B P B P

This? BBBB PPPP BBBB

This? BB P B PP B P BB

Just curious.[/colorsb]
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 05:47:46 PM
What is a pattern?

What is a streak?

What is dominance?

What is symmetry in a trend?

Does symmetry apply more to patterns?


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Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: J.Daniels on January 14, 2009, 06:41:03 PM
Patterns can be whatever u are capable of watching and make sense out of it. They can hold long time, and like that you could be able to exploit it.
You can also use patterns-breaker, antipaterns strings, or dominant patterns, etc.. well the universe is huge

It is just a matter of knowing what the wheel is throwing at the time. Is it trending long patters and exploitable, or not?

"if its been a cold week, probably we are in winter"

JD
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Colin on January 14, 2009, 07:58:29 PM
I need your HELP PLEASE saw a system i think it was to do with BLACK& LOW  + A Staking plan some 1 please tell me where i can find it again .Colin ps it is a recent 1
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 08:14:43 PM
Quote from: Colin on January 14, 2009, 07:58:29 PM
I  need your HELP PLEASE saw a system I  think it was to do with BLACK& LOW  + A Staking plan some 1 please tell me where I  can find it again .Colin ps it is a recent 1

Please try a search for "BLACK & LOW" or "Staking plan" I did. I got so many links that I could not figure out what help you need. But I'm glad to help because I'm here to help those that need help. BTW, do you have any thoughts on what trends, patterns, and streaks are?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: lucky_strike on January 14, 2009, 08:35:35 PM
 
So how do we hit an trend?
1 attempt or 2 attemps or above.

When does an trend quit?
1 lose or 2 loses or above.

Is this an trend? LWLWLWWWWWWWLWLL from the result above.



Cheers Lucky Strike
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 08:47:07 PM
Quote from: Lucky Strike on January 14, 2009, 08:35:35 PM

So how do we hit an trend?
1 attempt or 2 attemps or above.

When does an trend quit?
1 lose or 2 loses or above.

Is this an trend? LWLWLWWWWWWWLWLL from the result above.

Cheers Lucky Strike

I  guess the reason I 'm asking is because I  know what all this stuff is. I 'm just checking to see if anyone else knows. You see, it's a communication mistake to assume that others know what you mean when you say trend or pattern. Just for the record, I  would not use rule based systems or templates, all the time, against randomness. You see, there will be that that time when it doesn't work well. So, to answer your question, using the rule first move / second move, first loss / second loss can't work always.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: lucky_strike on January 14, 2009, 08:51:47 PM
QuoteSo, to answer your question, using the rule first move / second move, first loss / second loss can't work always.

Okay agree.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 14, 2009, 05:43:32 PM
Spike said: People are always saying they bet the 'trend' and never say what a trend is.
[colorsb]
Is this a trend? BBBBBBBBBB

This? BBB P PPP P BBB P

This? BB PP BB PP BB PP

This? BB P BB P BB P BB P

This? B P B P B P B P

This? BBBB PPPP BBBB

This? BB P B PP B P BB

Just curious.[/colorsb]

All the patterns above can be divide into 1/3 so is this the basic for trending?
Does it exist any other ways to divide them?

RRRRBBBBRRRRBBBB that is series follow by series WWWLWWWLWWWLWWW

RBRBRBRB this is singels alternating WLWLWLWLW or LWLWLWLWLW

RRRBRRRRBRRRR this is series and singels alternating WWLWWWWLWWWW

Cheers Lucky Strike
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: geoff365 on January 14, 2009, 10:03:59 PM
2 types a loosing trend or a winning trend. And it doesn't have to be on the EC's
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 01:05:40 AM
There are a number of industries whose very survival depends on recognizing the difference between a fad and a trend. A fad by definition is a short-term event, what some may call a 'flash in the pan'. A trend, on the other hand, has the potential of becoming a long-term influence on the future of a market. A fad and a trend may resemble each other at first, but there is almost always a definite beginning and a definite end to a fad. The use of hot pink wall paint may be a fad, but the idea of using designer colors would be a trend, for example.

One major difference between a fad and a trend is duration. A fad product, such as the Pet Rock of the 1970s, enjoys a few months of unexpected popularity, but disappears just as quickly as it appears. The creator of the Pet Rock, a large stone nestled in its own cardboard cage, understood the easy-come, easy-go nature of a fad and capitalized on the public's penchant for novelty toys. The lifespan of most fads is notoriously short, but if a fad item becomes a trend, it can remain popular for decades.

Some say that the difference between a fad and a trend is the number of industries it affects. A fad often appears in a single industry and rarely crosses over into others. The 1980s fashion fad of parachute pants, trousers made from a thin nylon material, did not become an accepted element of the youth culture or the music culture. The recent introduction of Apple's iPod, on the other hand, crossed over into the worlds of fashion, wireless communications and music. Portable electronic devices have become a trend, while fashions such as leg warmers or parachute pants remain fads hopelessly trapped in time.

Another difference between a fad and a trend is industry acceptance. Investing in a fad item can be risky for companies known for setting trends. It can be very difficult to tell the difference between a fad and a trend before the product or service reaches the buying public. Smaller companies often have the flexibility necessary to promote a faddish item, while larger companies tend to wait until the initial smoke clears and a trend can be determined.

This difference between a fad and a trend can be seen in the recent diet wars. When scientific evidence demonstrated a link between high carbohydrate intake and weight gain, a number of fad diet plans quickly emerged. Although the move away from processed foods and carbohydrates soon became a trend, the individual diet plans involved all enjoyed a fleeting popularity.

A similar difference between a fad and a trend also appeared in the fitness industry. An emphasis on core exercises and the reduction of abdominal fat became a trend, but a number of faddish exercise devices appeared suddenly on television screens everywhere. Some of these exercise devices were shown to be ineffective or even dangerous for the user, while others became part of the trend towards better health and weight reduction. One of the telling differences between a fad and a trend is the perception of overall quality. Fad items are rarely expected to endure, but trends tend to survive the decade in which they were created.

Source: nolinks://nolinks.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fad-and-a-trend.htm (nolinks://nolinks.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fad-and-a-trend.htm)

In short, a trend is an affair of perception. You can't argue a perception sorry but life is life, you'll need to find another punching bag once again.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 01:21:37 AM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 01:05:40 AM
There are a number of industries whose very survival depends on recognizing the difference between a fad and a trend. A fad by definition is a short-term event, what some may call a 'flash in the pan'. A trend, on the other hand, has the potential of becoming a long-term influence on the future of a market. A fad and a trend may resemble each other at first, but there is almost always a definite beginning and a definite end to a fad. The use of hot pink wall paint may be a fad, but the idea of using designer colors would be a trend, for example.

One major difference between a fad and a trend is duration. A fad product, such as the Pet Rock of the 1970s, enjoys a few months of unexpected popularity, but disappears just as quickly as it appears. The creator of the Pet Rock, a large stone nestled in its own cardboard cage, understood the easy-come, easy-go nature of a fad and capitalized on the public's penchant for novelty toys. The lifespan of most fads is notoriously short, but if a fad item becomes a trend, it can remain popular for decades.

Some say that the difference between a fad and a trend is the number of industries it affects. A fad often appears in a single industry and rarely crosses over into others. The 1980s fashion fad of parachute pants, trousers made from a thin nylon material, did not become an accepted element of the youth culture or the music culture. The recent introduction of Apple's iPod, on the other hand, crossed over into the worlds of fashion, wireless communications and music. Portable electronic devices have become a trend, while fashions such as leg warmers or parachute pants remain fads hopelessly trapped in time.

Another difference between a fad and a trend is industry acceptance. Investing in a fad item can be risky for companies known for setting trends. It can be very difficult to tell the difference between a fad and a trend before the product or service reaches the buying public. Smaller companies often have the flexibility necessary to promote a faddish item, while larger companies tend to wait until the initial smoke clears and a trend can be determined.

This difference between a fad and a trend can be seen in the recent diet wars. When scientific evidence demonstrated a link between high carbohydrate intake and weight gain, a number of fad diet plans quickly emerged. Although the move away from processed foods and carbohydrates soon became a trend, the individual diet plans involved all enjoyed a fleeting popularity.

A similar difference between a fad and a trend also appeared in the fitness industry. An emphasis on core exercises and the reduction of abdominal fat became a trend, but a number of faddish exercise devices appeared suddenly on television screens everywhere. Some of these exercise devices were shown to be ineffective or even dangerous for the user, while others became part of the trend towards better health and weight reduction. One of the telling differences between a fad and a trend is the perception of overall quality. Fad items are rarely expected to endure, but trends tend to survive the decade in which they were created.

Source: nolinks://nolinks.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fad-and-a-trend.htm (nolinks://nolinks.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-difference-between-a-fad-and-a-trend.htm)

In short, a trend is an affair of perception. You can't argue a perception sorry but life is life, you'll need to find another punching bag once again.


I'd like to suggest a fad. If it does well then it might become a trend. Let's find out how many gamblers here assume they know what trends, patterns, streaks and swarms are. How many think they play trends with a set of rules? Like if you see three reds you bet black, rules like that.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 01:45:22 AM
Why do you like to ask such questions which lead nowhere ?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 02:01:02 AM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 01:45:22 AM
Why do you like to ask such questions which lead nowhere ?

This is nowhere for all you folks in a trance. You know, that thing you are doing now that will win for you the next time you go to the casino.

What comes at you is constantly changing. If you aren't constantly changing too then you have no chance. What makes you think that a set of rules or conditions will trigger your next win? Why do you keep doing that until you are in a hole again? "The sleeper must awaken."; Dune.

This time Arte, the only nowhere is the confusion you must feel. I know what you don't know. The cat is out of the bag.  It's not nowhere. I know that a discussion with you about patterns and symmetry is like discussing the origins of the universe with a first grader.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: VLSroulette on January 15, 2009, 06:04:50 AM
Hi there mates...

Let's keep the post constructive please, we all want to learn from each other's interaction and hopefully let readers learn something valuable out of it.




Hello Gizmo, I'd like to interact a little here regarding trending and dominance.

A trend -as per the Market Trend (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends)- definition refers to:
"A prolonged period of time when prices in a financial market are rising or falling faster than their historical average."

In roulette determining something as "trending" can be extrapolated to that, only we use the matematical mean according to our "past-spin window" as our "historial average".

We gamblers like to refer to something as "trending" when it is showing dominance (as in Stochastic dominance (//nolinks://), "a situation in which one lottery -a probability distribution of outcomes- can be ranked as superior to another, with only limited knowledge of preferences"), but in reality it can be "trending" both ways: upwards and downwards, a positive trend and a negative trend. We need of course to have our frame of reference and for us roulette players it is our past-spin window.

Also domination (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domination_(poker)) for card players can refer to a way of rating a hand, "used to refer to any situation where one hand is highly likely to beat another".




Let's please keep the thread on topic. Gizmo, You are right when you say we cannot assume others know what we know.

I would like for sure to see your take on these interesting terms you are bringing up to the debate: What is a pattern, a trend, a streak, a dominance and symmetry in a trend. If you can provide your take on them, then we can properly interact with you using your provided information as the "gizmo frame of reference", this is, interact with you knowing what your understading is on them.

That is a good starting point for further constructive debate.

Best regards,
Victor
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 07:14:01 AM
Quote from: VLSroulette on January 15, 2009, 06:04:50 AM
...Let's please keep the thread on topic. Gizmo, You are right when you say we cannot assume others know what we know.

I would like for sure to see your take on these interesting terms you are bringing up to the debate: What is a pattern, a trend, a streak, a dominance and symmetry in a trend. If you can provide your take on them, then we can properly interact with you using your provided information as the "gizmo frame of reference", this is, interact with you knowing what your understading is on them.

That is a good starting point for further constructive debate.

Best regards,
Victor

It never occurred to me that when in the past year my discussions were deliberately turned off topic at this point I was being misunderstood because of many definitions or meanings for "trend" and "trending." The phrases for what is a pattern, a trend, a streak, a dominance and symmetry in a trend or symmetry in a pattern were misunderstood at least. For that matter, elegant patterns were outright denied to exist at all and were scorned everywhere. The idea for them became fodder for rule based system players and mechanical bet selection players. Even accepted beliefs in general where those opinions. I was always dumbfounded to discover them as proof for my loony claims. Oh Yeah, I want to keep it on topic.

Let's keep this on topic. I already ruled out rule based system play and mechanical bet selection play as a ridiculous way to proceed in gambling in a real casino. There are times when the triggers don't work. That alone is apparently a mile stone for many to get past themselves. I can't offer wisdom to those that need to run the course properly and to discover the hard way that the systems will not get them what they want. Unless all they want is to experience many times that fixed rules flow in and out of working for them. That's the lesson to learn you know.

There is no discussing this. You have to get to a point where you are disgusted and tired with systems before you give up on trying to find that Holy Grail.

Now's usually when I'm forced to defend my beliefs. I heard that dragging sandpaper over your tongue won't work either but go ahead, prove me wrong. To those that think this is a personal attack on them, you would be wrong. What you think is beautiful to you right now is worthless crap to me. I earned this by playing in casinos for more than 30 years and by teaching myself computer languages so that I could test every system ever claimed to be valuable by simulating them for their long term effect. I even played with the possibility of conditional selection for intelligent guessing. That is the only version of simulation that changed the odds. I never proceeded with making it available because what I do in playing roulette is more powerful than artificial intelligent, smart systems, for computer programming. Now it doesn't matter if you believe me now or not. I know that perhaps someday you will get tired of searching and come back to this.

The questions presented by Spike and me were to confirm that there is a generalization for what a trend is to others and that nobody is comfortable with understanding what these other things are. They have not offered explanations for what Spike first wrote. Nobody answered my questions. These concepts are far from most people's thinking I'm afraid. Just about every thing I've said must seem like some lame baloney to most here. That's fine with me. It is no wonder that educated guessing is a hoax to almost everyone. Spikes average claim for 72% is a point of ridicule for almost everyone. From my perspective it is a kind of test to see where most people are as a gambler in their learning path of gaining playing experience. So it goes without saying. If there are secrets to be kept from those that have not paid their dues or that lack sufficient playing experience it must be those that are imposed on themselves by their own openness to what works  and what does not work. Inclusion in the club comes at a price higher than Rubies. The only way to pay for this scam is to buy it with your blood sweat and tears.

There is no way on earth that I'm going to lay it out there, because I have tried that approach. It falls on deaf ears. And Arte thinks I ask questions that lead to nowhere. He is just being honest to himself. In a way that is refreshing.

Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bliss on January 15, 2009, 08:25:52 AM
For starters, I think it's important to differentiate between "trends" as a social phenomenon (as Arte was referring to in his post) and trends in casino games. Trends in everyday life, such as what you should be wearing on the beach this summer, whether your hair is short or long, what are the latest buzzwords in youth culture, as well as trends in more specialized environments (such as the markets) all depend to some extent on the "snowball effect", and other psychological factors.  All these can be ruled out of roulette, baccarat, etc.

Intuitively, I would suggest this for a working definition of a trend (in the context of casino games):

"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

Where an "event" could be either "elemental", or "compound". An elemental (or "atomic") event is the smallest decision element found in the game. So in baccarat, an elemental event is a "B" or a "P" (ignoring the sequence of cards which actually generate the P or B). A compound event is anything made up of 2 or more atomic events. Thus BBP, PPBPPB, PP are all compound events.

There is a problem in that an "event" is subjective in the sense that it seems to be an arbitrary decision as to how you delimit the event in any given sequence, and because this definition of a trend must include events, it seems that the whole notion of a "trend" is arbitrary and subjective too. If you stick with atomic events (B or P) it's simple to find your trend. Using Gizmo's sequences:

Is this a trend? BBBBBBBBBB - yes, the trend is B

This? BBB P PPP P BBB P - no

This? BB PP BB PP BB PP - no

This? BB P BB P BB P BB P - yes, the trend is B

This? B P B P B P B P - no

This? BBBB PPPP BBBB - yes, the trend is B

This? BB P B PP B P BB - yes, the trend is B

In the case of compound events, this is where it gets tricky.

To be continued...
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 10:12:31 AM
"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

This is how it works in the FX market. By simply using a moving average the guy knows when price is trending. This is so evident and has been known for so long i wonder why we have this discussion. Gizmo as usual has no solid arguments to provide because he likes make things more complex than they are.

Genius is making the complex simple.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bliss on January 15, 2009, 10:16:44 AM
Quote from: ArteGenius is making the complex simple.

Gizmo describes himself as an "eccentric genius", maybe genius is also making the simple complex?  :)

Quote from: ArteBy simply using a moving average the guy knows when price is trending

Not trying to be pedantic here, but EXPECTED average implies you know what the true average is. For example, you can work out the expectation of 5 reds in 12 spins, but you can't do a similar thing for prices fluctuations in the market over a given time period because the "odds" are not fixed; or can you?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 10:22:25 AM
He is like a wiz kid who says there is a bug with your computer while it simply is not plugged  ;D I say plug your dam computer and use it but again he will want to know what is electricity.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 04:54:06 PM
Quote from: Bliss on January 15, 2009, 08:25:52 AM

"A trend is a repetition of events in a given number of decisions, such that the number of repetitions exceeds the expected average"

Great answer. Bliss, you stepped up and explained your opinion perfectly. It's no surprise either. You will work to get an answer without taking any of it personally. This is interesting. Your definition of a trend, as it relates to Roulette or Baccarat, is exactly along the lines of what Spike and I have  agreed that it represents.

I love that you just took the simplest approach and just answered what you think. You get a 100% from me for what you just stated.

By understanding that there are terms for these combinations of recent past data, recognition becomes more of a construct for understanding this phenomenon. Thus, simplification of data tracking becomes a manageable process. Not to make fun of myself but I could say that it is doing a hemi. Only I wouldn't. I would say that there is a pattern, one that I have never seen before. The pattern tends to repeat itself as the opposite of itself in a symmetrical fashion. It also is part of a swarm of short termed extended trends. There is an absence of chop without formations that are recognizable. To see only trends or not trends is not enough information for me.

So I have taken the complex and made it simple for me. I did this exactly like a musician gets better at what he does. I learned to read music and I learned to discover what my muse is. I learned what I like in music and what naturally comes out of me as a guitar player. I learned to like my music tastes. I also learned what it is to be a professional pop star and how to get there. When I go after something I never stop at the edge to try to understand it. I throw myself into it expecting to fail a million times until I'm one of them that can do it.

So to answer my "eccentric genius," I go to the complex and then back to the simple.

Arte, once again, you are very funny, good job.

Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 06:48:05 PM
QuoteGreat answer. Bliss, you stepped up and explained your opinion perfectly.

It's true Bliss gave a good answer as well as Victor but this is not new stuff. Almost all traders use some form of moving average to identify a trend. It's so wide spread that i did not think we had to explain such basic concept between us. I think you should look at other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts. Study what the majority of traders are doing, you'll learn a lot. I think you like to use very complex wordings to make the simple look more complex than it is in reality. But Bliss is right it makes you look as an "eccentric genius".

QuoteNot to make fun of myself but...

I think you succeed quite well in that area to.   ;) So we can say you are an eccentric humoristic genius. VoilĂ .
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 07:11:43 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 06:48:05 PM
I think you should look at other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts. Study what the majority of traders are doing, you'll learn a lot. I think you like to use very complex wordings to make the simple look more complex than it is in reality.

Lets see. I put up a few simple questions and only one guy comes forward to define one of the several questions. One guy asks me to go ahead and define them so that everyone will know what I mean. The point of all of this was to find out if too many assumptions have passed for understanding in the past year. Arte, only you can dodge the questions while giving advice that is nothing less than disruptive. The test is still running and so are you. It's not my job to corner you. You can or can't show us all your understanding of my questions. I didn't ask for more assumptions to create an atmosphere of generalizations and off topic interests of yours. If this is all you have then please be more direct, for the sake of this forum, please. Is it so difficult to answer a few questions that you assume are already well known general knowledge in nature? Was that too wordy? You tend to so easily lose sight of the topic. If I were you I'd look at "other domain of activity to increase your understanding of basic concepts." PKB
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Herb on January 15, 2009, 07:44:41 PM


In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 


Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 08:22:47 PM
Quote from: Herb on January 15, 2009, 07:44:41 PM

In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 

True Herb, at roulette there aren't any trends. But even in the FX market there aren't no trends, i mean you can't discern a trend before it is alive. There is this lagging effect we can't avoid with trends.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 08:24:45 PM
Quote from: Herb on January 15, 2009, 07:44:41 PM

In a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends. 

You know this because you are an expert at visual ballistics. You are also an argumentative person that already lectured me on your opinion. And that is all it is too, just an unproven opinion. You might want to look at the existence of expert systems and pattern recognition where a proven advantage has been successfully demonstrated and validated for authenticity among intelligent scientists and researchers. I would love to watch you lecture them as to the validity of your expertise on randomness. You see the world from your own perspective and you think others should just roll their eyes as you inform them of the realities of the world. Why did you come here, to this thread, only to start trouble? There is an open discussion of the nature of randomness as it can be described in terms of past spins or shoes. I politely listened to your explanations and theories. Did that go to your head that I was agreeing with you? I was not. It is one thing to apply physics to the problem of prediction and quite another thing tell others that randomness does not offer you any advantages. Says who? Go get a bunch of allies and proof, because you are all alone in your own little world on this one. I put out the effort to be courteous to you in the chat room. I think you are crazy starting trouble here. I will destroy you. I will provide you with the proof that you are wrong. So leave it alone. You have your VB world and I have left you alone in it. Do you honestly think that there is a single person on this board that does not see right through your motives here. There is no other reason then to start an argument. I guess that is becoming a reoccurring pattern or trend too. Herb, starting another fight, a trend?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 08:46:09 PM
QuoteThere is no other reason then to start an argument

Herb, you are an intelligent guy who knows the difference between a real advantage and a pipe dream. Gizmotron's fun is to start an argument because he is probably a teenager in search of his identity. He just likes to say black if someone says white. Very typical of a teenager attitude.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 15, 2009, 09:27:16 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 08:46:09 PM
Herb, you are an intelligent guy who knows the difference between a real advantage and a pipe dream. Gizmotron's fun is to start an argument because he is probably a teenager in search of his identity. He just likes to say black if someone says white. Very typical of a teenager attitude.

I have so enjoyed ridiculing Arte for the past year. He's like a Clyde Crashcup, a Ruby Goldberg kind of a pseudo scientist. What I like most is he keeps coming back like a punching bag or the Energizer Bunny.

The topic of this thread is about trends. Arte is pretending to be an expert of that now. I'm not sure why. It should rub off soon enough so that he can declare it as bunk. I sure would like to hear from him about the inner relationships between trends while he is in this connection with his darker side mode. I'm sure he could come up with a name for these inner relationships in order to keep it easy to discuss. How about all of you? Do you want to hear from Arte?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Herb on January 15, 2009, 09:46:02 PM
Gizmotron,

You posted the information and were asking for a response.  You opened it up for debate, so I offered up my opinion.  If you didn't want a response, then why did you post it on a message board in the first place?

Take the information for what you will.

Best of Luck, and Cheers. :)

-Herb
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 10:14:54 PM
QuoteDo you want to hear from Arte?

Never heard of him.  ;D
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Spike on January 16, 2009, 04:41:05 AM
Bliss is correct in his understanding of what a trend is. Gizmo and I both slapped our foreheads in disgust at not thinking of a thread like this sooner. We now realize that most players consider a trend to be anything at all that repeats. So when they say 'trends' (apples), I see oranges. We're not discussing trends, we're trying to make apples into oranges. Very nonproductive.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 16, 2009, 05:10:26 AM
I'm beginning to guess that things like "symmetry" are a complete mystery to most. So the same probably applies to recognizing swarms and data packets that tend to swarm in trends. To me, my experience is the internet itself. Information is sent as packeted data over the net. Once a packet is received another packet is sent until it is completely received. Randomness sometimes occurs in packets of symmetrically shaped patterns and they can run in swarms at times. Swarms have a dominance to them like trends. I use my cognitive skills to see and remember figure formations. I use the terms swarms and packets because they already exist in other forms. Relating is only a process that becomes more labored by the generalized nature of communication. I have assumed way too much for the last year.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Herb on January 16, 2009, 05:32:00 AM
Can you provide us with an example as to how you would use it with a random roulette game.?

Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bliss on January 16, 2009, 09:26:28 AM
Quote from: HerbIn a random game of roulette, there aren't any trends.

Herb, you're such a party-pooper. :)
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bliss on January 16, 2009, 01:21:46 PM
Given a choice at roulette of betting with a trend or against a trend, it is probably best to bet with a trend.

Why? Because there is a slight -- an extremely, extremely slight -- possibility that the reason a trend has developed is due to the physical mechanism or the dealer's influence. If this is so, the trend will tend to continue.


- Frank Scoblete nolinks://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5942.html (nolinks://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5942.html)

It's not so easy to rationalize why you should follow a perceived trend on the outside bets though.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 16, 2009, 01:35:56 PM
Quote from: Bliss on January 16, 2009, 01:21:46 PM
It's not so easy to rationalize why you should follow a perceived trend on the outside bets though.

Let's suppose the cleaning services had used a sticky product to clean the wheel but use one product for the Red colors and needed to change product for the Black colors. We never know...  ;D
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Herb on January 16, 2009, 03:41:57 PM
Great point Arte!

I think Gizmotron is talking about a different kind of trend maybe?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 16, 2009, 03:47:51 PM
Quote from: Herb on January 16, 2009, 05:32:00 AM
Can you provide us with an example as to how you would use it with a random roulette game.?

What would be the point? You don't believe that anyone can win more than they will lose. I'll give you this though. If a trend exists only in your imagination does it still exist? Perhaps you know about the clustering illusion? Why can't you bet on the illusion of trends and patterns? If a person can see a dragon or a sailing ship in a cloud then what is to prevent anyone from seeing formations in a stream of past spins. There is no mathematical rule that predicts that 10 reds in a row must end on the 5th spin going into it.

If you are smart enough to predict a spin from VB then you are smart enough to imagine an example for your self.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Herb on January 16, 2009, 04:00:12 PM
Gizmo,

Give us an idea as to what you mean.  I'm not here to smash your idea.  I'm curious about what it is.. 

Thanks. :)

-Herb
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 16, 2009, 04:09:13 PM
Quote from: Herb on January 16, 2009, 04:00:12 PM
Gizmo,

Give us an idea as to what you mean.  I'm not here to smash your idea.  I'm curious about what it is.. 

Thanks. :)

-Herb

OK. If I see a twelve run of reds and I start to bet it on spin five then I'm just guessing that a streak might be starting. If I lose that bet then it didn't start. If I win that bet then it did start. I can now sit back and collect all eight before I finally lose one.  Now if I bet the lowest amount on all non trending spins and I bet very large on all tests of trend following I have an MM advantage over the whole game. I also have my growing pile to see if it is working. I decide when to back off and get out. That's an advantage too.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 16, 2009, 06:21:48 PM
QuoteNow if I bet the lowest amount on all non trending spins and I bet very large on all tests of trend following I have an MM advantage over the whole game

We call this using a positive progression. I do this regularly in the Forex market.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 16, 2009, 08:53:24 PM
Hey! Gizmo you should help this guy here :
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/full-systems/complex-wave-betting/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/full-systems/complex-wave-betting/)

Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 12:22:27 AM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 16, 2009, 06:21:48 PM
We call this using a positive progression. I do this regularly in the Forex market.

This goes to the terminology issue once again. To me a progression is something that graduates several times with many intervals. What I do is two flat values, high, or low. It's only one interval. Is a progression really a progression if it has only two values that are not trigger or rule based in nature. I don't think so. So what do you call this?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: J.Daniels on January 17, 2009, 12:28:14 AM
I call it UP and DOWN  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 12:40:56 AM
Quote from: J.Daniels on January 17, 2009, 12:28:14 AM
I call it UP and DOWN  :thumbsup:

Daniels, Gizmo needs when things look more complicated than they are so Up/Down is not complex enough for him to understand.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 01:08:58 AM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 12:40:56 AM
Daniels, Gizmo needs when things look more complicated than they are so Up/Down is not complex enough for him to understand.

I'm happy to discuss gambling in simplistic and generic terms so that you can pretend to communicate. I win. I win, I win, and I won today in fact. I used up and down. That's how I did it.  Well, I'm glad everyone understands trends now. If you have a full understanding of ups and downs then you can win too.

Let's see, this deserves a happy face --  :o  ;D  :D
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 17, 2009, 06:46:16 AM
Betting on or avoiding a "trend" is just a way of communicating that which you are comfortable investing in or not investing in. So in roulette terms a trend/fad/pattern/swarm/packet/whatever, is just something you see or feel happening on the wheel at a particular time. It could be anything at all that takes your fancy. For instance, number 13 arrived 4 times in the last 37spins... Now he says wow bet on 13 it's hot, and she says wow avoid 13 it's done... 2 completely opposite reactions to the same (very simple) trend. The same goes for red black, this wheel section that wheel section, this dozen that dozen, and so on in infinite variety.

As for rule play, there are always rules whether you're aware of them or not.  Like my wife says I can't go to the casino on Thursdays & Fridays 'cause those are her days off, and we need quality time together.... That's a rule! It affects my play! I never break it!

If you spend a long time at the wheel and crunching numbers, and you have identified a ridiculously complex "trend" that seems indefinite, then a set of rules to guide you through the maze you have envisioned might be quite useful. So they're not so much rules as guidelines. What about laws? Maybe that's the word? In society laws are challenged all the time, and a big aid to this is precedence. Trends, etc, is all about precedence.

What about a set of rules that allow you to shunt from one trend to another as they become apparent?  There you go, my new term for roulette players... shunting! Came up with that one thanks to cactus juice (only joking).

The ONLY thing that is constant is change, so why would you expect something different from the roulette wheel? I say, "shunting" your play to conform to the never-ending stream of change that manifests itself at each session of play is your "holy grail", and you're gonna need some major guidelines to help you find it. Do not dismiss trends, do not dismiss rules, do not dismiss cactus juice (only joking).

 
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: lucky_strike on January 17, 2009, 06:59:32 AM
QuoteAs for rule play, there are always rules whether you're aware of them or not.  Like my wife says I can't go to the casino on Thursdays & Fridays 'cause those are her days off, and we need quality time together.... That's a rule! It affects my play! I never break it!

Amen, i agree to that.

Cheers Lucky Strike
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 01:08:09 PM
Quote from: bombus
The ONLY thing that is constant is change, so why would you expect something different from the roulette wheel? I say, "shunting" your play to conform to the never-ending stream of change that manifests itself at each session of play is your "holy grail", and you're gonna need some major guidelines to help you find it. Do not dismiss trends, do not dismiss rules, do not dismiss cactus juice (only joking).

Very true bombus,

The game is simple, we don't need to complicate it by using terms like swarms just to show off.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bliss on January 17, 2009, 03:25:48 PM
Quote from: bombusSo in roulette terms a trend/fad/pattern/swarm/packet/whatever, is just something you see or feel happening on the wheel at a particular time. It could be anything at all that takes your fancy.

Ok then. But why should "anything that takes your fancy" be more likely to win than anything else which takes your fancy? IMO there has to some objective criteria, otherwise it's just luck, right? If anything can be a trend, the whole concept is meaningless.

It would be a start if someone could even explain how they would go about testing whether a perceived trend is likely to continue. All I'm getting is smoke and mirrors.

For example, quoting again from Louis G. Holloway's book:

"On split roulette numbers (17-1) the cycle is about half of the longer ones. They should hit three times within ten in order to follow five. Strips of three numbers in row should hit within eight to follow four times. Six blocks should hit three within 5 to be considered hot, then follow twice. Dozens or columns must hit three in a row to attract my attention. Follow twice and then drop off. Even money shots on isolated straight runs are fair at five, better at six. Follow one time only. All bets that win are continued on any warmed-up cycle"


Here are statements that can be tested, and proved one way or the other. He doesn't give a reason why numbers should behave like this, elsewhere in the book he says:

"Mathematicians will say a roulette number always has one chance in 38 (American wheel) or a dice longshot like 12 is always a 35-1 shot. Here is where L.G.H. and the mathematicians part company. I say the longshots get a whisker better when they are "warmed up" or "bunching". I can't say why. Call it "law of attractions" or whatever you like, but my research indicates this attraction works."

But it doesn't matter, because anyone can test the theory for themselves.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 03:33:44 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 01:08:09 PM
The game is simple, we don't need to complicate it by using terms like swarms just to show off.

That is very telling Arte. Your standards for understanding a thread must be about as good as your ability to explain your own ideas in your own threads. Funny, you think by me sharing something I know that is valuable to me, and useful to anyone that wants to consider its existence is so that I can show off. Then what is it that you are doing now? You are the perfect example of illustrating the general lack of understanding in the nature of randomness. Just to be perfectly clear here Arte, do you think it is a personal attack if I point out that you appear to lack a general understanding of randomness? You think that "swarm" is a useless descriptive term for a phenomenon easily seen in watching past spins? All I see is you not looking at what is easily seen and then declaring it worthless. That makes you terribly closed minded to others while handing out your own confused efforts to communicate your own ideas. What do you call that Arte? Isn't it called Arte's world. What simple term describes that? Is the term arrogance simple enough?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 03:44:33 PM
Quote from: Bliss on January 17, 2009, 03:25:48 PM
"bunching".

Now there's a term that describes swarming real well. In fact I like it better than swarms. I'm sure that Arte will be relieved, it communicates simpler.

Have you ever seen streaks of trends of Black & Red bunch together while also seeing, before or later, chop acting as the buffer between that bunching? I hope that was simple enough for Arte.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Ulysses on January 17, 2009, 05:21:37 PM
The way I interpret possible emerging trends in online roulette is when observing numbers that are developing which I have witnessed in past games to emerge as a likely group of numbers that may show up over the next 30 spins. Many players see or notice reoccuring groups of numbers and bet accordingly when they recognize the possible start of that number group. Is this how anyone else see's emerging trends?

If so, what groupings have you witnessed that reoccur with a chance gamble that would prompt you to bet them in future games. :)

Uly
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 05:23:53 PM
QuoteIt would be a start if someone could even explain how they would go about testing whether a perceived trend is likely to continue. All I'm getting is smoke and mirrors.

Bliss, this is the right question to ask and you are right no one has come up with an explanation about how we could go about testing whether a perceived trend is likely to continue. For example, take streets of three numbers at Roulette, there are twelve streets. Each time one is leading or dominates then bet on it until you win then stop. Repeat that and after say 1000 times you'll see your score is not better than betting randomly. Gizmo does exactly this by traking multiples chances and we can easily simulate this with a computer and it is not better than any other ways of betting. So what's left ?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 05:32:20 PM
Quotewhat groupings have you witnessed that reoccur with a chance gamble

Asian people gathering around a bac table.  ;D
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 05:41:01 PM
Quote from: Bliss on January 17, 2009, 03:25:48 PM
It would be a start if someone could even explain how they would go about testing whether a perceived trend is likely to continue. All I'm getting is smoke and mirrors.

Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 05:23:53 PM
Bliss, this is the right question to ask and you are right no one has come up with an explanation about how we could go about testing whether a perceived trend is likely to continue. For example, take streets of three numbers at Roulette, there are twelve streets. Each time one is leading or dominates then bet on it until you win then stop. Repeat that and after say 1000 times you'll see your score is not better than betting randomly. Gizmo does exactly this by traking multiples chances and we can easily simulate this with a computer and it is not better than any other ways of betting. So what's left ?

Bliss, all you have to do is bet one bet to see if it holds up. Have you missed reading that I have stated that? All you have to do is keep betting it if it keeps working. Does that sound like smoke and mirrors to you?

Arte, you conveniently left out conditional awareness through the use of bunched together trends and testing as you go. You know, more of that complex stuff you insist that is not necessary. So you go ahead and program that with your tinker toy. That is what is left. Thanks for asking.  

Thanks to both of you for contributing to this thread. Spike and I have been trying to confirm for ourselves that generalized terms and generalized conceptions about meaning are the cause of miss communication among those that post on gambling forums. You guys are excellent examples of illustrating the topic and possible problem.

Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Ulysses on January 17, 2009, 05:42:23 PM
Arte the comic genius.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 06:00:47 PM
Quoteyou conveniently left out conditional awareness through the use of bunched together trends and testing as you go

Not at all. I remember once i created an app. with 60 types of douzens. I would bet only when one was ahead by using different criterias. It works for a while and then bing bang bong it does not work. Porblem with guys like Spike and You is that you have not done any tests except maybe testing 100 or 1000 spins in all. You have won these short sequences and think you have discovered America. I have got news for you, some of my best systems have beatun up to 100000 spins but at one point they have all failed. As i said you and spike just use what is convenient, Spike tests a system on 100 spins, wins 8 bets out of 8 and think he has 100% win rate. Funny realy.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 06:19:46 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 06:00:47 PM
Not at all. I remember once i created an app. with 60 types of douzens. I would bet only when one was ahead by using different criterias. It works for a while and then bing bang bong it does not work. Porblem with guys like Spike and You is that you have not done any tests except maybe testing 100 or 1000 spins in all. You have won these short sequences and think you have discovered America. I have got news for you, some of my best systems have beatun up to 100000 spins but at one point they have all failed. As i said you and spike just use what is convenient, Spike tests a system on 100 spins, wins 8 bets out of 8 and think he has 100% win rate. Funny realy.

Arte, you are completely blind. You said it yourself only a few minutes ago. Remember this: "It works for a while and then bing bang bong it does not work." ?  It's not me and my communication skills that prevents you from understanding me and how I have explained clearly how to deal with this. Only you have blinders on like the Matrix, Forex, your vast experience, and your toilets. You can't beat roulette in a long sequence of rule following, system following, or fixed guessing techniques if you try that for 10,000 spins. You must beat roulette on the next spin only. You must beat randomness on the next decision only. There are no 10,000 decisions ahead. The long term odds can't predict or prevent conditional awareness from keeping you from making smart decisions. So you go ahead and keep testing your BS in your grandmother's basement. You are completely wrong in your description of what I do. In fact you are a lier. You have no evidence to back up your claims.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 06:51:36 PM
QuoteBliss, all you have to do is bet one bet to see if it holds up. Have you missed reading that I have stated that?

We have all read this. Let me describe a plausible scenario, your tactic is to use a conditional awereness framework (complex one with multiple chances) then you see an opportunity, you test it by betting a small bet say 10$ you win so you increase say 200$ (a huge increase to make it worthwhile) you lose the second attempt. You go home because to day is a bad trending day. Next day you apply the same approach, you see a nice trend emerging, you bet once so you say in yourself wow i have identified a real trend so you increase by 20 and bet 200$ (10$ x 20) and you lose that bet. Now you are getting nerveous, should i stay and keep losing or go home and come back tomorrow. You stay there as you have big balls between your legs, another opportunity emerges, you wait and then bet one coup and win once again at 10$/bet so you increase your small bet to 400$ to recover and bing bang bong you lose a third time this big bet. So in all, you have won 3 times and lost 3 times for a grand total of -800$+30$ = -770$ not bad for a swarm aware guy.

Bliss, i hope you won't read this to keep the dream alive.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 17, 2009, 07:24:09 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 06:51:36 PM
We have all read this. Let me describe a plausible scenario, your tactic is to use a conditional awareness framework (complex one with multiple chances) then you see an opportunity, you test it by betting a small bet say 10$ you win so you increase say 200$ (a huge increase to make it worthwhile) you lose the second attempt. You go home because to day is a bad trending day. Next day you apply the same approach, you see a nice trend emerging, you bet once so you say in yourself wow i have identified a real trend so you increase by 20 and bet 200$ (10$ x 20) and you lose that bet. Now you are getting nervous, should i stay and keep losing or go home and come back tomorrow. You stay there as you have big balls between your legs, another opportunity emerges, you wait and then bet one coup and win once again at 10$/bet so you increase your small bet to 400$ to recover and bing bang bong you lose a third time this big bet. So in all, you have won 3 times and lost 3 times for a grand total of -800$+30$ = -770$ not bad for a swarm aware guy.

Although you addressed Bliss with this I must assume that when you say "your tactic" you are actually addressing me. You once again attempt to imply that I would never have seen a draw-down before. You also made a monster mistake. You blow the win on a cheap bet by testing it first at a low price. But let's change the scenario to your downfall, sad story, and say many of my first big bets lose for many days. You don't think I have a plan for that do you? You think that that is the end of me and my method don't you? All you have done is cherry pick what you want and you then turn it into the big picture. I have no doubt that you don't play much in real casinos. What you described is one of the first things you must deal with if you intend gambling much. I've never seen swarms, bunching, end every time I've attempted to use them. By their nature they tend to go on for a while. Don't ask me why. You would do way better here if you would set out to discover the longevity of swarms. Show us all the times that it ends after you recognize them and compare that to how many times it continues. That's a scenario that would be right up your sleeve, all that time to run sims on your computer that is.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Spike on January 17, 2009, 07:35:45 PM
>> But why should "anything that takes your fancy" be more likely to win than anything else which takes your fancy?>>>

It wouldn't. It just points out the lack of understanding of how these games work that appears to run amok on gambling forums. Its the ignorant leading the misinformed.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 08:29:06 PM
QuoteShow us all the times that it ends after you recognize them and compare that to how many times it continues

50% of the time it continues, 50% of the time it ends after the first win. I mean if you test more than once. In that sense, i agree with Spike "Its the ignorant leading the misinformed". All this bla bla to come to this conclusion: The game is 50/50. Gizmo has just reminded us of this fact. I think your mentor has a better grasp of the game than you.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:08:35 PM
You USUALLY will notice a trend AFTER its over. Its easy to look at past spins and spot quite a few trends. The future is the tough part. I'll give an example >>> Spin #1 Red, now give me the trend please.  Ken
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 09:15:01 PM
Quote from: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:08:35 PM
You USUALLY will notice a trend AFTER its over. Its easy to look at past spins and spot quite a few trends. The future is the tough part. I'll give an example >>> Spin #1 Red, now give me the trend please.  Ken

Ken, in games of chance such as roulette what counts is capital preservation. All BS are equal if you play long enough. So after the first spin i might bet Red again or Black depending on my mood but what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 17, 2009, 09:17:34 PM
OK, here's the trend... RED.
Now proove me wrong!
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:21:13 PM
"what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3" --- Umm, okay. Spin #2 is black. So your third spin/bet is what and why? Whatever your bet is, I'll bet the opposite. Do you have an advantage over me? If so, how? Ken
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 17, 2009, 09:23:20 PM
Sorry if I appear ignorant, but I really am trying to get my head around gizmotron's concept of randomness and related wagering.  Are we talking about an event in which all outcomes are equally likely? What is the event? Do we take the event as being an infinite number of outcomes on the roulette wheel? If so, then isn't our perception at each session of roulette play so absurdly fleeting that the effects of long term probability distribution could appear to be solid trends? But they are really just infinite randomness constantly in a state of corrective flux?
Are we talking about intuitively pre-empting a continuous change or instability without any design?
If that is what is required, then I'm in way over my head.
Just street bets throw up enough randomness for me; am I wrong to put blinkers on and eliminate the greater portion of the flux so that I can focus on particular "trends" isn't that a somewhat systematic approach even if my final selections are to be intuitive?  
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 09:31:33 PM
Quote from: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:21:13 PM
"what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3" --- Umm, okay. Spin #2 is black. So your third spin/bet is what and why? Whatever your bet is, I'll bet the opposite. Do you have an advantage over me? If so, how? Ken

Why should i have an advantage ? We are all equal in front of the wheel. You don't need to have a reason to bet B or R, it's luck that will determine your outcome. What counts is how you preserve your capital.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:36:05 PM
Just so I understand. For that third (or fourth) spin, you will NOT choose red or black for ANY reason? Spin #1 Red, spin #2 Black.  Ken
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 17, 2009, 09:36:36 PM
Mr J. I bet red, you bet black... The house has an advantage over both of us... The trend is, one of us will win or both of us will lose, and that trend will continue forever. After that, it's all up to capital preservation as Arteinvivo puts it.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 09:40:12 PM
Quote from: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:36:05 PM
Just so I understand. For that third (or fourth) spin, you will NOT choose red or black for ANY reason? Spin #1 Red, spin #2 Black.  Ken

Exact, no reason as there is no reason to favor one over the other.

RBR has as much chance to occur than RBB unless you have found a bug in the universe  ;D
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:43:30 PM
I do agree, however, some will not. Example >>> These are 8 spins, RRRRRRRR >>> Who reading this will bet on red for the NEXT spin and why? Or bet on black, why?  Ken
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Arteinvivo on January 17, 2009, 09:49:39 PM
Quote from: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:43:30 PM
I do agree, however, some will not. Example >>> These are 8 spins, RRRRRRRR >>> Who reading this will bet on red for the NEXT spin and why? Or bet on black, why?  Ken

Do this test... each time you play and are influenced by past results in your choice then record it and at the end of say 1000 records look at the proportion of hit versus misses. You should see something like 500 hits vs 500 misses at +/- 3 standard deviation. In other words, this is normal distribution without any advantage. So if there is no advantage why would you lose your time in trying to find a good BS ? What counts is capital preservation, the rest depends on luck.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 17, 2009, 09:52:58 PM
Hmmm 8 reds in a row. I think I'll bet on number 7 in the fourth race at Randwick.
Gimme a break, this is this rbr stuff is just putting things into little boxes and can reveal nothing.

Here, read down the columns...

20   30   24   16   14
18   26   22   13   15
34   23   11   13   12
12   20   33   18   20
12   21   32   24   15
10   32   18   11   25
27   31   19   16   11
24   9   33   24   14
29   29   24   11   29
16   31   18   36   32
12   36   12   17   32
27   30   27   9   21
14   32   14   13   27
11   18   16   36   33
36   32   17   29   11
33   36   16   19   30
16   13   30   13   27
28   26   33   9   29
24   11   13   35   15
13   14   10   14   12

What is your next bet, and why?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on January 17, 2009, 09:54:35 PM
I was asking for input from anyone that had an answer of red or black and why. Believe me, they are out there. "Do this test" --- Dont need to. I've been "testing" for 7 years and by process of elimination, I know what NOT to test.  Ken
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: VLSroulette on January 23, 2009, 09:19:13 PM
Here's hoping this thread can go on and bring actual debate about trends. A very interesting topic which for some a non-existant matter at the game of roulette, for others it is their mean to keep ahead of the game.

Over this thread we want to go past the arguments and actually get to study "What Does a Trend Look Like?", we leave the door open for healthy on-topic debate.

Best regards.
Victor
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 23, 2009, 09:23:36 PM
Quote from: VLSroulette on January 23, 2009, 09:19:13 PM
Here's hoping this thread can go on and bring actual debate about trends. A very interesting topic which for some a non-existant matter at the game of roulette, for others it is their mean to keep ahead of the game.

Over this thread we want to go past the arguments and actually get to study "What Does a Trend Look Like?", we leave the door open for healthy on-topic debate.

Best regards.
Victor

Thanks Victor,

Now the thread has picked up another straggler. It appears that "triggers" have a generalized classification to them, that tend to mean a lot of things to many people.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: VLSroulette on January 23, 2009, 09:40:00 PM
QuoteIt appears that "triggers" have a generalized classification to them, that tend to mean a lot of things to many people.

As insane (or sane) as it may look like, I do think triggers are way too attached to each one's experiences.

This is attached to our personal set of experienced actuals. Let's remember each one of us is exposed to different numbers at our casinos and simulations, not two players are exposed to the same stream of numbers (unless they are siamese!). I think this has much to do with what's considered a "good" and a "bad" trigger (shall there actually be some more valid than other).

A player playing a biased wheel, not knowing there's really a biased section (say 26-0-32) which will come more often than expected, may have a numer in this biased area as betting trigger and say: 0 just came, 26 or 32 to come soon! And guess what, at that particular wheel he's trigger is right. But what happens when the personal bias come out of natural randomness?

I do allow room to the notion some people's set of experienced personal actuals can be biased towards certain combinations to come more often than they should precisely at the time they are playing (due to pure randomness & deviations, granted to average in infinity, but presenting "personal bias" for certain players). Hence, in this scenario  a player can actually say: "Too many reds recently, after black, I'll bet black for some spins as my trigger", while for another bettor that exact same trigger could be pure useless! Reds keep on coming over and over after black.

What I have learned from my experiences with spanish players is: it isn't as much the trigger as the reaction to the actual layed bets' results what counts.

Namely you can choose your bets in every imaginable way you wish, but how you act after lost real-money bets and how you maximize your winning bets trams, is what can actually allow you be ahead of the game.

Kind regards.
Victor
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 23, 2009, 09:46:37 PM
Quote from: VLSroulette on January 23, 2009, 09:40:00 PM
not two players are exposed to the same stream of numbers (unless they are siamese!).
Victor

LOL, have you seen that?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 24, 2009, 09:23:09 AM
Concerning trends, would the Chinese strategy for prosperity, Dragons & Worms qualify as trend related? For them winners are dragons and losers are worms.
Here, one is free to move around the casino observing the action. When you see someone winning big, this is your dragon and you bet with this person. Or, when you see someone losing big, this is your worm and you bet against this person; you see it all the time on the bac tables.  I say this is trend betting with almost no math or science experience required.
OK, lets say you have recorded 1 million spins and identified a pattern of some type that re-occurs periodically. Is this a trend yet?
You then proceed to study the spin results directly after each pattern occurred and find that after the identified pattern, (A) happens frequently, (B) less frequently, (C) sometimes (D) rarely, and (E) never. Is this a trend yet?
Lets say you somehow succeeded in reducing the equation so that you now only need to record 42 spins, you identify your pattern and perceive the apparent possibilities of the 42 subsequent spins. So you now have A, B, C, D, and E (E never happens... but) to deal with. Does the trend continue to diversify, or is this where "educated guessing" chimes in?
Perhaps more diversification is in order? Then lets say after 42 spins, (A) occurs, now do you revert to compiling another 42 spins, or do you move along the trail, or both? In your initial 1 million spins, there was the recurring pattern, then the (A, B, C, D, E) follow on, which frequently resulted in (A). In the (1 million spins) study you found that in the results post Pattern/(A), the frequency of (A) and (B) was reversed, and that in fact (A) moved into position (C), (B) into (A), (C) into (B) etc.  Is this a trend yet? Do we now use an edumecated guess?
This sort of thing could go on and on or stop now.
In regard to roulette, the magnitude of system possibilities, educated guessing techniques, precognitive awareness methods, etc, all combined with staking plan formulae is probably as diverse as life on earth.....
So should we be asking what does a trend look like, or what is the relationship between perceived trends and roulette play, and at what point can we be confident with the selections that this relationship has produced?
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: gizmotron on January 24, 2009, 08:23:28 PM
Yes, now perfect that into a winnable method for yourself. Double your effort to diversify recognition and find the commonality where simplification runs through all that too. There will come a point when you can filter out the garbage and keep what works for you. You will find that timing is just as important as following the concept. You will find that the concept is only a premise for placing a guess. You will know that there are better and worse forms and qualities of guessing. Finally you will know why and how all those things string together to give you a workable plan.

There is no way to walk anyone step by step through all that. It's like trying to see a maze from ground level. You must learn your own way. I believe that each of us finds our own favorite things to look at.

For those that think all this is baloney, I would like to thank you for doing your part in keeping casinos open.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Spike on January 24, 2009, 08:31:25 PM
and at what point can we be confident with the selections that this relationship has produced?>>>

When you consistantly win more than you lose. Bet selection is everything in gambling and MM is far second. The people who say MM is the most important are kidding themselves.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: bombus on January 25, 2009, 04:42:37 AM
Quote from: Gizmotron on January 24, 2009, 08:23:28 PM


For those that think all this is baloney, I would like to thank you for doing your part in keeping casinos open.


Seconded.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: ReDsQuaD on March 19, 2011, 11:39:28 PM
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 15, 2009, 08:22:47 PM
True Herb, at roulette there aren't any trends. But even in the FX market there aren't no trends, I mean you can't discern a trend before it is alive. There is this lagging effect we can't avoid with trends.

What a load of horse shit. You are just here to cause trouble and that's it. You don't have clue what you are talking about.

James.
Title: Re: What Does a Trend Look Like?
Post by: Mr J on March 20, 2011, 01:49:47 AM
January....09?  :o