We often hear: "Its just one more system that depends on the board being just right for it to work".
I think there is a bit of truth in that statement. Do you differentiate between good and bad times ? If yes then what formula do you use to achieve this measurement ?
In this thread Enrique defines when it is favorable to bet. He makes some distinctions between right and wrong time to bet:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-winning-edge/winning-sequences/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/the-winning-edge/winning-sequences/)
All mechanical systems only work when the conditions unfolding in the game match their limited betting method. There is almost no way to know when conditions are right to bet until its too late. Thats why mechanical systems will never work. The dream of standing there with a drink in your hand, half gassed out of your head, and betting like a robot and winning thousands is just that, a dream. A flexible bet selection that changes with every spin or every hand is the only hope of gaining an edge.
QuoteA flexible bet selection that changes with every spin or every hand is the only hope of gaining an edge
So we just need a flexible bet selection to beat the game ?
QuoteSo we just need a flexible bet selection to beat the game?
A flexible bet selection that hits more than expected OR a flexible bet selection which syncs with the game within
what a progressive scheme can resist at a good enough ratio (session bank % won
VS times of total bankroll loss).
Thinking a bit about it, the only two ways to achieve a flexible bet selection is either to bet random as you aren't bound to stiffed rules or well, yes, being a human and make human-based decisions for which rules are so arcane they are embedded inside each person's brain and as a whole such a subjective bet selection just can't be the same for every human being applying it.
Victor
To some extent, i believe we can profit from the natural order which emerges during the game. This is why at one point in my personal quest i was attracted to the matrix concept as one possible way to track order versus disorder or to track the hierarchical clustering which occurs spontaneously and which tend to stay stable for extensive period of time.
Just to remind you the matrix is nothing more than a set of rows and columns where each row represents a level of repetition. For example, if some double-streets hit in this order :
5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 4
Since we have 6 possibilities or 6 double-streets, we need 6 columns and i proceed this way:
outcomes: 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6
5 4 3 1 6
6 <- i place 6 on a second row as it has repeated
Let's carry on :
5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1
5 4 3 1 6
6 1
1 <- 1 has repeated 3 times
let's carry on:
5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1
5 4 3 1 6
6 1 3 4
1 3 6
1 <- 1 has repeated 4 times
The natural hierarchical organisation is beginning to emerge and some order is also beginning to be seen.
Let's carry on:
5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 4
5 4 3 1 6 2
6 1 3 4 5 2
1 3 6 4
1 6 4
6 4
6
6
6
Do you better see the natural organisation which is taking place within this small set of double-streets ?
Now, let's look at real outcomes from Wiesbaden:
January 15, 2009 - table 3
133 spins analysed and we can clearly see the hierarchical relationship between our six double-streets. See how street number 2 has had a quick momentum push and how dbl-s #6 has stayed in the leading position for almost the whole game.
Zone 5 was unstable and zone 1 lost its momentum.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi65.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff65%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fmatrix10.jpg&hash=0ce8f6fe8bb20cb0adabded1119eb56e463190aa)
Let's look at another example just to see how this simple tool can help us differentiate between good and bad time.
Wiesbaden, January 08, 2009 - table 3
We can easily see we had to wait until spin 59 to see some good opportunities:
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi65.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff65%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fmatrix11.jpg&hash=ce6e1a15b877bb1bb8dc606e5e5d11fc0c6b3855)
The same tool can be used with corners (group of 4 numbers).
Definition of corners:
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi65.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff65%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fcorner11.jpg&hash=fcdf283e295eae8906e90e097f11d6287f7b184b)
Wiesbaden January 09, table 3
We can easily spot where was the best time to play and which zone(s) to play.
Here i could have selected 5, 6 or 9 as good candidates to back.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi65.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff65%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fcorner10.jpg&hash=c1d482976f9c17ca28a8110c4fc3a9c01020d427)
It is my belief that such a simple tool is better than no tool or betting randomly. But i admit two players using it might experience different results. One might be very good with such a tool and another might have poor results for different reasons i won't explain here but are easily identifiable like greed, over gambling, lack of patience, under capitalisation etc. Also, using it in a mechanical way won't work either. I think you need to use your common sense. It's mainly a yardstick to gauge if the actuals are too chaotic to play, the decision is always up to the player whether or not he can play this particular set of numbers. You need to remember, the less you play the better it is. I would much prefer play with a higher bet amount than playing 10 times more with a lower bet amount. What counts is finding what appears as a good solid opportunity. It's your capacity to identify these few opportunities that will differentiate you from other players.
Quote from: Arteinvivo on January 19, 2009, 01:25:27 PM
It's your capacity to identify these few opportunities that will differentiate you from other players.
The sum of plenty of "fews" makes a lot. Methodology not for the reach of compulsive players, that's for sure.
Bravo Arty! [smiley=chat/smile39.gif]
"A flexible bet selection that changes with every spin or every hand is the only hope of gaining an edge."
I have used random coin flips and also random decisions from Random.org and tried betting the decisions will match the shoe and also tried betting the decisions will not match the shoe. In my limited testing it doesn't seem to offer any advantage over just betting straight bank or player. It doesn't appear to give any advantage for a flat bet bettor. Logically I don't see why betting random against random would offer an advantage? Regardless of how you pick your next bet you only have a 50% (slightly less actually) chance of being correct so how can any method of bet selection improve on that?
Every time I try to make betting decisions based on past decisions I usually do worse than I would if I just picked the dominant side and stayed with that bet selection. One approach I want to try is to bet the opposite of my decisions based on past decisions.
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QuoteEvery time I try to make betting decisions based on past decisions I usually do worse than I would if I just picked the dominant side and stayed with that bet selection
It might just be due to poor timing. If the table is in a chaotic state then don't expect to hit a high score. On the other hand, if the table *APPEARS to be in a state of order then maybe it might help. This is something you must experiment and test. However, iIt may not work for you. Sometimes it's a matter of affinity with the method or tool used to gauge the table.
>>I have used random coin flips and also random decisions from Random.org and tried betting the decisions will match the shoe and also tried betting the decisions will not match the shoe. In my limited testing it doesn't seem to offer any advantage>>>
And how could it? You're taking the results from one game directly applying them to another game, the results should be disaterous. Work on understanding the nature of random and an answer might occur to you.
"And how could it? You're taking the results from one game directly applying them to another game, the results should be disaterous. Work on understanding the nature of random and an answer might occur to you."
I wish the results were disasterous, then I would just bet the opposite of what ever caused the disasterous results. I also tried using the results of previous baccarat shoes and betting the current shoe would match (or not match) the results of the previous shoe but that didn't seem to work either. I think random decisions produce more unpatterned results than patterned results. That may be important to understanding random.
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"What counts is finding what appears as a good solid opportunity" I agree.
The "Level Game" isn't what is needed.
<<I also tried using the results of previous baccarat shoes and betting the current shoe would match (or not match) the results of the previous shoe but that didn't seem to work either. >>>
Playing random outcomes against random outcomes is just another system. Sometimes it works, mostly it doesn't.