I have a method of play that has been successful. I would imagine that somebody out there has thought of this way of playing and probably failed with it. But I seem to be having success and I think that the success lies within the rules that I follow.
In the next 1-2 days I am going to post a method of play that has been working for me. I had a plan to wait 2 months before going to a casino but I had to go to sign my sister into one of my comp rooms, so I broke down and played some baccarat. I made about $1070.00. I do not have time to post it now because it is very late and I have to wake up early tomorrow morning. I figured that I would start to set the post up now.
My original plan was to do a lot of testing and post it in July if it held up. But I have a few problems. My first problem is that I ran out of live results and many of the results that I was getting off of the internet seemed odd. As a result of running out of live tests I began testing live on Dublin Bet which is very time consuming. I am starting my summer job soon so I do not have enough time to test it.
I do all of my testing by hand in a notebook. Tomorrow night, or I guess tonight since it is 2:15am I am going to explain my method of play and rewrite a few live tests and post them. I will show how I play and how it has been successful for me. *The most important thing that you must realize is that even though I have done a lot of testing, I have not done enough. I have not played around with the method of play enough. There are a few holes that I need to fix and maybe some of you will have good ideas and better ideas than me. I am not the most creative person when it comes to gambling so it is always great to hear what other people have to say. I will explain the aspect of play that I want to reevaluate in more depth tomorrow.
Here is a preview of the method of play that I am using.
My base bet is always $20.
The first key component is being realistic about your goals:
I go into each session with the mentality that I have to be realistic about my goals. You must realize that this method is not going to get you rich fast. Being realistic leaves you less vulnerable to the casino. When you make a certain profit you must stop. When you lose a certain amount you must stop and reevaluate. Do not go into the game hoping to kill the casino because no method of play will ever hold up 100% of the time (unless someone out there knows something that I do not know).
The next key component is money management which is probably the most important aspect.
This is what I am still working on with this method of play. I am not sure if I like the progression. My goal is to not get too deep into the progression..I want to avoid being wiped out at all cost. This means that sometimes you may have to stop and just wait it out then get back at it. Next time I play this method I am going to sit down with about $1,200.00 maybe $1,400. But this is one aspect of the method that I am going to put a lot of focus on.
My goal is to make about 5.5-6 units each shoe. So if I am betting at the base unit of $20 then I should make around 110 to 120. In testing I have consistently produced this goal. I did have one odd session where I only finished plus one unit but I don't think I played the shoe right. I have to go back and look at the shoe again. Many times I reached this goal a little more than half-way through the shoe, but I stopped playing. As soon as I reach my goal of 5.5-6 units which would be $110 to $120 I stop. I do not care how great the session has been. I stop to limit my exposure to the casino because I know that if I am not careful then the casino will eat my winnings and my bankroll.
I still have yet to figure out a good stop-loss limit, whatever you call that. I have not run into the problem of losing that often but I know that it is bound to happen soon so I will figure that out within the next few days.
The next key component to my method is how often I bet.
I do not constantly bet. Yet again the goal is to decrease the exposure to the casino. So I bet when the time is right.
Here is one more important fact to note:
When I post the method that I play, I sometimes make a bet that is different from what I am supposed to do. That is because I see an opportunity within the play and I usually end up being correct. I will try my best to describe the what I did if I happen to post a shoe where I made a sudden change the style of betting.
When I play I play for 5 sessions. The day that I made over $1000.00 I played for 8 sessions and I did not follow my rules exactly like I should have. That took a long time to do and I will probably never do that again. So my goal is to walk away with between $400-$500 dollars after 5 shoes (sessions).
This is a very simple way to play and so far I have not had many large drawdowns. For not putting much through into the progression, I think that the progression has been holding up pretty well.
Also...someone may have come up with a style of play like this. And it probably didn't work. If anybody out there knows of a system that is exactly like this then please provide your input on how to make it successful.
Sorry if I do not make sense at times, I am half asleep...I just wanted to get started. I am also sorry for not explaining much about how I play.
I will explain the method soon. I will also post one of my best shoes, one of my hardest shoes, and a few more examples. I will also post the progression and I will restate the rules that I follow for this type of play.
-John
Look under bac resultws i have posted 50 shoes for you and others who might want to test something tho 50 is still a small sample
Quote from: Natural9 on June 04, 2009, 03:57:50 AM
Look under bac resultws I have posted 50 shoes for you and others who might want to test something tho 50 is still a small sample
Thank you very much. Every shoe helps
I will be posting my method soon, but I want to present an idea first.
This idea deals with perfection:
My method of play is not flawless. Even though I have yet to lose with it, I know that it will lose at some point. However, When it loses I need to make sure that I use enough discipline to stop and accept the loss and go back at it again. But where do I go from there? What happens when I lose more than one time. When happens if I suffer multiple losses in a row? Do I stop and look for something better? Do I continue to seek perfection? OR do I hang on to what I am comfortable with and try to improve the system. I have noticed that so many people seek perfection. They have a system that produces a consistent profit and then all of the sudden the system crashes. This results in the person moving on in search of something better. But my question is, if you have something that you are comfortable playing and it produces a consistent profit most of the time, then why ditch the system? Rather then completely leaving the system behind maybe it is a better choice to improve it.
We have to face reality and realize that we are gambling. We we sit at a table we are taking a chance. With all of life comes chance. You take a chance walking down the street...You even take a chance mopping your floor. On the radio today I heard some lady saying that her finger came off while mopping!! There could possibly be a grail out there for baccarat and roulette, I am not going to make an argument against that or for it. Yet what I do know is that I will never be capable of producing a grail. So what I have come to realize is that if we always seek perfection then we may never get anywhere. We only stress ourselves out more. If we ever do find a perfect system then that is great but life is short, so how long will you really get to enjoy it? You can wake up one morning feeling great and drop dead the next morning. It happens all of the time. Is the search for perfection really worth the stress? In my opinion I would much rather seek improvement than deal with the stress of perfection in the world of gambling.
Here is an example.
I like to exercise. That is what I am most passionate about. I have been lifting seriously for about 3 years. I go into the gym and see people everyday who are looking to get stronger, the hard way just like me. Then I see the occasional person who is so big that you feel sick looking at them. This person has taken the easy way out by taking steroids...they even admit to it. I have come across many people like this. So what is different between me and the person who takes steroids? Well I am much smaller and they could obviously crush me in a second. Maybe they can make some money by getting in magazines and so on. But here is another difference...While they seek perfection I seek improvement. They stress themselves out so much that they go to such extremes and use steroids. I take the path of making small gains with no stress.
So how does this pay off? Well I am happy. The person on steroids happiness is only an illusion that is injected through a needle. Better yet, I am in great health, the steroid perfection maniac may not be in the best health. There are so many bad side effects that come out of steroids, if you do not believe me then just watch a documentary.
I would much rather be in good health and see results over time, rather then jeopardizing my life and being a maniac. I think the same is true with gambling. While seeking perfection is good to a point, I think it can easily be be abused. Just like the guy who goes on steriods and says that he will only use the steroids for a short period. Next thing you know the manic is hooked....
So when I present the method that I use, keep in mind that I am not looking to develop a grail. I am not looking to have a perfect system. I am looking for improvement. I do not care if the improvement lasts for 1 day or 50 years. What I do care is that I learn something, that the method of play becomes stronger, and that I do not become an obsessive maniac.
Happiness does not come from perfection because when things seem perfect they will crumble. That is how the universe works. Happiness comes from being comfortable with what you have and seeking out opportunity to improve what you have through Less stressful avenues.
I always seem to have success in what I do. This is because I am determined and I do not stress myself to reach perfection. I always seem to improve but I improve within realistic boundaries. I have seen people live what they consider a perfect life and drop dead (not so perfect). Life can be interrupted by a tradgy that changes everything. I know this because it happened to my aunt. I got very close to her before she died and she taught me so much about life. What she taught me has carried over not only into everything that I do but also my gambling.
I just presented my view on things and I feel as though I need to share this so you understand the way I think before I share my method of play.
I hope this all made sense, it is hard for me to express what I am thinking through writing.
I will be posting the method that I use sometime before tomorrow morning.
Thanks John, good post :thumbsup:
I am about to post the method that I use for playing. Within the next few posts will:
1.) Explain the rules that I follow again
2.) Explain the Progression
3.) Explain the way of playing
4.) I will provide 3 shoes that I played.
-The first live shoe will be a basic shoe that this style of play has done well on.
-The second live shoe will be my easiest shoe.
-The third shoe will be my hardest shoe which happened to be from a random number generator from Dublin Bet
5.) I will then list some areas of the method that I think are weak
As I stated before, I did have success with this method of play but I may not have success the next time I play it. I have not done nearly enough testing...I am posting this method way too early but that is because I do not have time to do a ton of testing. I have done a lot of testing, enough to fill up a notebook but I still don't feel like it is enough.
It would be nice to have some feedback and some suggestions on how to improve the style of play. I am not looking for perfection, just something that I can be comfortable with.
Also, I do not know if there is a style of play out there like this...There probably is but I have not come across it.
Looking forward to it - should be a good read.
Quote from: roules on June 04, 2009, 11:44:07 PM
Looking forward to it - should be a good read.
haha it is probably nothing new. I think i just built some suspense for something original.
Rules:
1.) Bring about $1,200.00 to $1,400 dollars to the table with you. This is probably over kill but I like to be safe. Just do not plan to lose all of the money.
2.) I prefer to play 5 shoes. This obviously varies upon the individual.
3.) Win goal for each shoe is 5.5 to 6 units. All of my base bets are $20.00 so this means that I want to finish each session with $110 to $120 dollars.
If I play 5 sessions then I should finish with a profit of $500.00 after commission, maybe a little more.
4.) As soon as I reach my win goal during a shoe I stop. So if I make my 6 units half way through the shoe then I stop playing and wait for the next shoe. This takes discipline. My logic behind this is to decrease my venerability to the casino.
5.) A Stop Loss for a shoe still has to be established. But my goal is to walk away from the 5 sessions without losing money.
6.) Do not bet every hand. Yet again my logic behind this is to limit venerability to the casino.
7.) I still have to make a rule about the progression...as far as when to stop and rethink or what to do if things get out of control. This rule will be established when I focus more on the progression.
8.) Be realistic about your goals. I go into each session with the mentality that I have to be realistic about my goals. You must realize that this method is not going to get you rich fast. Being realistic leaves you less vulnerable to the casino. When you make a certain profit you must stop. When you lose a certain amount you must stop and reevaluate. Do not go into the game hoping to kill the casino because no method of play will ever hold up 100% of the time (unless someone out there knows something that I do not know).
Next I will explain the Progression and the method together. In a few min. I have to type it out.
Progression:
Here is the progression. I kind of pulled it out of my ass and I have not completed it. I do not know if I like the progression yet. I haven't had many bad sessions so I haven't seen the progression perform poorly. There are so many progressions out there that I can not remember the names of them.
I do not like huge negative progressions.
My goal is to make the profit of 5.5 to 6 units without going deep into the progression. Sometimes there are not that many betting opportunities so it makes finding the perfect progression difficult. But then again I feel like limiting betting will help the progression in the long run. I'll explain what I mean when I show how I play the method with the progression.
Here it is:
1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5 and I still need to figure out where to go from 4.5. I'll explain why later.
Here is an example of the progression using $20 as the base bet.
20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90
The goal is to always come out ahead either +1 unit or +0.5 units. After suffering a series of loses. This means that you must play until you either come out ahead + 10 or + 20.
So if we had $80.00 in profit and we lose, we use the progression to come out ahead either $90.00 or $100.00.
Here is how it works.
1.) You start betting 1 unit.
-If you win then you stay at 1 unit
-If you lose then you go to 1.5 units.
- If you win the 1.5 unit bet then you stop and you made 0.5 units.
2.) If you lose the 1.5 unit bet then you go to 2 units.
-If you win the 2 unit bet then you drop to 1.5 and bet again.
Example.
Lose the first bet: -20
Go to 1.5 unit (30) and lose -50
Go to 2 unit (40) and win -10
Go to 1.5 unit (30) and win +20 Stop...came out ahead one unit.
3.) If you lose the 2 unit bet then you go to 2.5 units.
Example.
-Lose first bet: -20
-bet 1.5 (30) lose, -50
-bet 2 (40) lose: -90
-Bet 2.5 (50) Win -40...here I would bet 50 again.
-Bet 2.5 again win +10. You are 0.5 unit ahead so stop.
As you get deeper into the progression you work your way down a ladder to the base bet but only betting enough to come out ahead +.5 or +1 units.This means that you have to pay attention to the profit that you are trying to achieve before the progression began.
Hopefully by now you are getting what I am saying. The goal of the progression is to win a level two times in a row. And if you are deep work your way down to the base. By that time you should either be +0.5 units or +1 units.
*Sometimes you may have to drop a level...
There is a problem though. As you get higher into the progression it becomes harder to recover. This is why I do not have anything added after the 4.5 unit bet. I still have not had to go to 4.5 units. So I am not sure what to do about that.
Now I will explain how I play and apply the progression to the way that I play.
I originally started with the 3+capping method leading into a neural progression. This method came by some guy named Jim. At first it seemed great but I quickly realized that the progression was too large. It also seemed to lose more often than it won.
So I took his idea of the 3+capping but now I do the opposite and I do not play the progression. So basically I only took the 3+capping idea from him. I also added a twist and this is where the progression comes in.
Here is how I play:
1.) I wait for a series of 3 or more B or P.
2.) when the series is interrupted by a different outcome, I will then make a bet based on the dominate side.
That probably made no sense so here is an example.
B
B
B---Here there is a series of 3 banks
P--- P comes out so now the 3 banks have been capped. I will then bet for B to show.
B- B showed and I won. I now stop my betting until I get another set of 3 or more Banks or players followed by the opposite outcome.
3.) This is how I play on a loss.
B
B
B
B
B here I have 5 Banks
P a player came out so I will bet Banker: it is now capped
P player came out again so I lose. Now I switch and bet Player with my progression.
P player came out again and I ended up with +0.5 units. I now stop and wait for my next capping opportunity.
As you can see when I lose I go with the last outcome. I do not stop until I come out ahead +0.5 units or +1 units.
Here is an example that I am making up:
B
B
B
B 4 B's
P capped now bet 1 unit (20) on B
B win +20 ( one unit)
P
B
P
P
P 3 P's
B capped bet 20 on P
B lose NOW SWITCH TO B bet 1.5 (30) units on B. +0
B Win 0.5 unit (10) profit = +30. Stop bet
B
B
P bet 20 on B...B's are capped.
B win + 50
B
P
B
P
P
P
P
P
P
B bet 20 on P
B Lose, bet 1.5 unit (30) on B: profit = +30
P Lose bet 2 unit (40) on P: profit= +0
B Lose bet 2.5 (50) unit on B: profit=-40
B Win bet 2.5 units on B: Profit= +10
P Lose bet 2.5 units on P: Profit= -40
P Win bet 2.5 units on P: Profit = +10
B Lose bet 2.5 units on B: Profit= -40
B Win bet 2.5 units on B: Profit = +10
B Win bet 1.5 units (30) on B: Profit +60 (bypassed 2 and dropped down to 1.5 )
B Win stop betting goal of +0.5 (10) achieved. Profit= +90
B
B
P B's capped
B bet 20 on B
B Lose bet 30 on B Profit= +70
B Win +100
B
P B's capped, bet 20 on B
B win +120. PROFIT GOAL IS REACHED NOW STOP PLAYING SHOE.
As you can see...the progression is used to make the .5 or 1 unit profit. If I begin to get deep into the progression and I win the back to back bet, I have to work my way down the ladder. In the example where I got to the 2.5 unit bet I was able to jump down and by pass the 40 dollar bet by making the 30 dollar bet. After winning I still came out ahead +10. So you have to judge what bets to make as you work your way down.
If I happen to have a really bad session then I will not try to make the .5 unit profit...I will try to get back to where I was before the progression. But then I will go to the 1.5 unit bet when next bet that is triggered by 3+capping. This means that I bypass the 1 unit bass bet (only one time).
I will also do this if I have a few session in a row where I only make .5 units.
When you finish the progression you stop and start playing the 3+capping again.
I think that only choppy play can hurt this method of play. This is a situation that I am still trying to improve on. I haven't put much attention on it yet. I will discuss this in the post about things that I want to improve on.
I have found that this play, combined with my rules has been successful for me.
I will post my three examples. I am going to scan them on now.
I have three live testing shoes. The first shoe is a basic shoe from Dublin Bet. There are three pages. I as having trouble uploading so I used image shark. I hope it works. I will post the Easiest shoe that i had after I get done uploading the three pages of the the basic shoe. Then I will post the hardest shoe that i have faced yet.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F5544%2Fbasicshoefirstpage.th.jpg&hash=c43fd2ec97d315733f9a6c2c163531682703951b) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoefirstpage.jpg)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F4317%2Fbasicshoepagetwo.th.jpg&hash=08b64a7f584c20369b6f118a2f1fd0a0e2e285ec) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoepagetwo.jpg)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F8991%2Fbasicshoepagethree.th.jpg&hash=e249e770f6222e3e765dd9329ddeb17c1f06487a) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoepagethree.jpg)
Here is one of the easiest shoes that I came across while testing. This is a live shoe. I was able to make my 6 units long before the end of the shoe. I followed my rules and stopped playing. There should be two pages.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F2006%2Feasyshoeone.th.jpg&hash=5847991194f464a6490ab4b246524a1a8fa6dfa0) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=easyshoeone.jpg)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F5612%2Feasyshoepagetwo.th.jpg&hash=ff6fe52641391732fec67272e96bff3b5d9382c8) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=easyshoepagetwo.jpg)
Here is the hardest shoe that I came played during testing. it comes from a random number generator from Dublin Bet. I was still able to finish with my 6 units. There should be 3 pages.
Next post will be about problems that I have with the style I of play.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F3479%2Fhardshoepageone.th.jpg&hash=3714f44b7b455948721099a47ef4397e472220db) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepageone.jpg)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F3555%2Fhardshoepagetwo.th.jpg&hash=c1ce0db48494f787d79e5ee1df93255f9b4b6131) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepagetwo.jpg)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F9004%2Fhardshoepagethree.th.jpg&hash=436f21b706ba7cfc61af63f03a7df025f180d361) (nolinks://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepagethree.jpg)
There are obviously some problems with this method of play.
I have not put a lot of thought into certain aspects of play. I want to improve the play and I am open to all suggestions.
1.) Progression
I think that the progression may need to change. I am not sure what progression I want. My favorite progression is the 6 point divisor but I am not sure if it will work well with this method because I do not know if it will allow me to end up with my 5.5 to 6 units at the end of a shoe.
Since my goal is to finish every shoe with 5.5 to 6 units I need to figure out a way to have a good progression that wont have a large drawdown. Maybe I can alter the progression that I am using? I am not sure...I am not great when it comes to progressions. I do not like them but at the same time I like to use them to a point because they help me achieve my goal faster. With this method there are only a certain number of windows to make a profit, so it is important that I make that profit. But I want to minimize the risk.
2.) When to stop when I am losing
I need to figure out how much that I want to lose before I stop for the entire shoe. I guess this depends on the progression also.
3.) What to do if I get a real bad choppy session
I do not even know what to do in this case. I really have to put a lot of thought into this. A chop that goes on for a long time can kill me.
Maybe it is a good idea to stop playing after like 4 chops or something and wait for the capping to start back up then start the progression with the capping.
There are a few more things that I need to think about but I am getting tired so I am not going to write anymore about this for tonight. As I get more ideas I will throw them out there.
John1234,
Just for information. NOT an endorsement .
The Guetting progression.
nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics03.html
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Looks to be going well
do another test play to the end ofthe shoe my theory if it wins it wins doesnt matter whether play to end of shoe or not
Regards Rodney
Hi John,
As you said it's probably not a new method as far as the bet selection goes but it's new to me and it looks pretty good.
To limit losses you could stop betting after four losses then wait for another trigger to bet? And also you could set a stop loss of around 10-20 units. The less shoes-played-to-recover the better in my opinion.
Also for progressions, I sometimes like to use an aggressive d'alembert, up one unit as you lose and never back down. You can also use this as more of a recovery method and lower the unit value if/when it recovers if you like to play it safer.
Just went over about 30 shoes before and the worst it did was -3 and -4 on a couple of shoes. Made +6 units most shoes, the ones that didn't, didn't really have enough time as they were mini-bac shoes(40-50 hands)
Cheers
John1234,
You need the trigger to avoid the four losses to begin with. Then you'll have it, period.
Interesting post.
I finished all of the shoes that Natural 9 posted late last night. I just had to calculate the profits and now I will post the shoes.
Profit From Shoes 31-40: $900 I had one losing Shoe which was -6 units. I lost at the very end of the shoe.
Profit After 40 Shoes = $4,240
Total from shoes 41-50= $1170
Total profit for 50 shoes= $5,410.00
I only had one shoe out of the 50 where I did not profit. That shoe came somewhere between shoes 31-40. That was -6unit loss. But the results seem good. My base bets were 20 dollars and sometimes 30. So if you are betting 100 dollar base units then you will make a lot more obviously.
I played all of the shoes the way that I presented, to a point. Not every shoe is the same so it is hard to always play the exact same way for every single shoe.
Later I am going to look into ways to improve the method.
I start thinking about baccarat, John. ;) Whats a post!!! Thank you very much for your hard work. Keep it up and happy winnings!
Best Regard,
Trung
John1234,
I mean for you to invert your system (picks) just before the losses come.
In my experience, and theorizing, wins and losses slowly average out after one quickly pulls ahead of the other. So the questions become, when are the wins/losses coming; and to which extent. I think you need to develop a now-ish (improvised) form of cause and effect. These outcomes all occur in the now, randomly, but never completely independently of the past and future. (Because randomness is not perfectly its own entity, and certainly not in our even-less perfect realm.)
I'm currently beginning working on this problem, myself. By looking at some underlying levels of surge in the ever-changing streams of P-B outcomes. Specifically at how also the longer patterns are evolving, alongside the shorter. (You'll likely need to look up the physics definition of 'surge' if you want to pursue that.)
But the biggest advantage to having an inversion system-control variable, or trigger/stopper, is something like as no shoe will never come out, eg, all B's, nor will any mechanically-fixed system ever come out all W's: Playing banker each and every game wins on average very-slightly more than half but mixing up the P's and B's at least allows for the possibility of more-fully matching those to the usual outcomes, by design or even luck. Which indirectly implies that given any fixed patterning system is going to Win half, and Lose half, invert it half the time to create the possibility of Winning every game with the "same" methodology all along. (Don't worry if this extension doesn't make any sense... right now I'm not sure it should, or would then even be of value.)
Not to "steal your thunder" john1234, may I invite you or anyone here with some history of posting to register at a new free site I have started for new systems, and their further development. (Simply because I prefer to post my "nonsense" in a more-controlled setting.)
John1234,
Thanks for your interest.
I forgot to say that i too hope anyone interested in any board continues to post there. It's important that each board develop a style of its own with its own talent. There's nothing in it for any of us to compete with the others here. (Let's just beat the casinos.)
But if and when the final break-through comes, it would better serve us to try to co-ordinate ourselves a little more discretely.
Quote from: John1234 on June 09, 2009, 12:39:33 AM
I tested some more shoes playing with my bet selection using Marven's 5 Level Staking Plan as described in a few posts above.
Everything is still going great.
-I have been making my profit faster
-There is less of a drawdown when I enter a choppy period.
-The bets have not been as high. The largest bet that I have made in all of my testing so far has been 3 units.
-I have not had one losing shoe yet. And every shoe I make between 5.5 units to 6.5 units.
I am no longer going to post testing results. It seems kind of pointless to do that now. I will just keep them saved on my computer.
All of my posts from now on will be updates, if anybody is reading and interested.
Awesome stuff mate keep it up how many shoes do you think we should test
Regards Rodney
John I have another suggestion dont know if it would improve things or not
If you get to your desired stop win in a particular shoes say within 30 -40 hands play it till you get like 2 or three losses in a row it may heklp etch out a few more units The reason i say it is the trend can be your friend
I asked a friend of mine if he has a good betting strategy that doesnt lose too much in a row(was thinknig using Lankys divisor strategy on it )he said he had a good one but it has lost 14 times in a row then won then lost another 10 times this can happen with EC bets
Also with your staking plan you need to test some of the good shoes out as well because sometimes new staking plans can affect the good shoes to the detriment as well
I going to test this baby out for quite a number of shoes like to see how it performs under real pressure and if it has a failure point to me 50 shoes are not enough to know whether it is a long term winner it looks like dont get me wrong but i have had system before the perform well short term untill that session from hell happens
anyhow regards mate
Rodney
Hi John,
Firstly, I wanna thank you for sharing this wonderful system.
After reading your posts, I tried this on few of the live
shoes I'd recorded in the past and there's one particular shoe
I think it could be the nemesis of your method. I'm not sure
and I could be wrong. Can you show us here how would you
play this shoe? thanks - hlkhoo
P
P
B
P
P
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
P
P
P
B
P
P
P
P
Hi John,
Thanks for playing the shoe and everything looks great up to this point.
Just a quick question. In your reply, you recorded the first 4 losses in a row (LLLL)
and based on my observation, shouldn't this be 3 losses and 1 win (LLLW)?
Let me elaborate more.
Your Reply:-
P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110 By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.
My observation:-
P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLL W Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110 By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.
At LLL we bet P and the next outcome is P, therefore it should read as LLLW?
If my assumption is correct, then we will never bet the chops since we don't have 4 losses in a row.
If that was the case, do you still come out ahead in this shoe ? Can you show us how you play?
Thanks
hlkhoo
Hi John,
Thank you for such a detail explanation. I'm following every single bit of it except for this section:-
B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.
B L Bet 20 B -70 1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total -->hlkhoo For the next result, you are betting P. We got it right. But it was recorded as a lost i.e. LLL. Shouldn't it be LLW
P LLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110, 3 staking bets lost. Now 5 total, bet chops.
B LLLW Bet 20 P -90
P LLLWW Bet 40 B -70
B (L)LLWWW Bet 60 P -30
P W +30 Stop betting goal of +0.5-1+ made.
I know it's kinda hard to visualize everything in just plain writing but just wanna you to know I do appreciate your time and patience in helping us.
Thanks
Quote from: John1234 on June 10, 2009, 07:49:42 PM
To have a successful method of play, I believe that certain elements are needed. I have some elements, and others I am still in search of.
1.) Self-Discipline- This component lies within the win goal and paying attention to bet sizes in relation to the win goal. Sometimes you do not want to try to overdo it. Also, I have found that whenever I can't walk away, I lose all of my profit, + some. Also you need discipline to sit there and wait for capping mode.
2.) Flexibility- In my last post I wrote something about how I feel as though a 100% mechanical system will not always be successful. That is why it is important to have a flexible way of betting and recovering.
-I think that I sort of have this component with the different modes of play. But it wouldn't hurt to strengthen this component.
3.) Bankroll- for obvious reasons.
4.) Saftey- This is a component that I was struggling to achieve at the beginning of the thread. Originally I only had the win limit per shoe, which goes hand in hand with self-dicipline. But I was missing the safety of money management. I think that Marven's Staking Plan has added a great deal of safety to the method because the bets are non-explosive.
First it makes sense to give less money to the casino when you are losing. This is why I do not want a negative progression. Marven't staking plan allows you to keep the money for when you really need it. With the last progression I would sometimes lose as much as $320 when recovering.
Second- By paying attention to your bet sizes in relation to your win goal, even more safety is achieved. For instance when you should be betting 80dollars but you only need 40 dollars to achieve your recovery win goal then I prefer to bet 40 because it helps to reduce the explosiveness of the betting to a greater degree. I never liked Up as you win progressions until I found Marven's staking plan.
5.) Bet Selection: I like the bet selection of the capping method followed by the second bet to recover. I also like the bet selection of betting the steaks. However I want to focus on the bet selection when a choppy period presents itself within the recovery mode in the shoe. Recovery Bet Selection still needs some work.
So I have most of the components that I feel are important. There could possibly be a few that I am missing but these are a few off the top of my head. So what I need to focus on most include (recovery bet selection) and (flexibility).
your nemisis pattern is identified as chops maybe play after this scenario BPB or PBP things is the more you switch the less profitable it could become
There can be some quite choppy shoes out there and the problem with switching as I have found in other methods I have tested is when you switch the shoes switches back in other words you get out of sync with the shoe I have noticed it in testing methods like the Baccarat code
Hi John,
I think I fully understood your method of play by now. Based on the examples you shown here,
it seems the bet selection is constantly "moving" i.e. switching between chops & dominant and
within the chop or dominant itself, there's no fix and hard rules. For example, at a start, a streak
of 3 or more and then break by a single chop is consider as dominant and you would start betting
on the dominant side.
However, towards later of the shoe, when you failed the chop series, you would start betting
on the dominant side even though the streak is a short one i.e. 2 banker and this contradicts with
the 1st rule i.e. 3 or more = dominant.
With all respect, to me, I think you are "adjusting" the bet selection just to make the shoe comes out
ahead. It's easier to do this when we have the full shoe posted. However, in real play in the casino,
we really don't know when should we consider better a dominant side. Do we consider a streak of
2 dominant? Or streak more than 3 is dominant?
Furthermore, the betting rules for this shoe can never be applied to others shoes because each
shoe will have their own patterns & characteristic. Just my humble opinion.
Also, I think I've spotted some mistakes.
B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.
B L Bet 20 B -70 1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total
P LLW Bet 20 P -70
B LLWL Bet 20 B -90 1st staking bet lost
P LLWLL Bet 20 P -110 2nd staking bet lost
B (L)LWLLL bet 20 B 3rd staking bet lost -130
P (LL)WLLLL Bet 20 B 4th staking bet lost. Betting chops -150
B (LLW)LLLLW Bet 20 B -130
B (LLWL) LLLWW Bet 40 B -110 -->We lost 4 chops in a row. We start betting dominant even though it's a short streak?
P (LLWLL)LLWWL Bet 40 B -150 (since B is dominate bet for B now.* I will explain after the shoe)
B (LLWLLL) LWWLW Bet 60 B -110 -->We bet B here. The next hand is P. It should be a lost, but was recorded as a win
P (LLWLLLL) WWLWW bet 80 B -170
B (LLWLLLLW) WLWWW Bet 80 B -90
B (LLWLLLLWW) LWWWW drop bet to 40 B, -10
B Win +30 stop
P Bet 20 B
B Win +50
B
P
B
B
Anyway, thanks for your time and no worries. You may not have re-post the shoe again. I fully
understood how you played and I can tried it out here on my own. My best wishes goes to you
and family and happy winning.
Cheers
hlkhoo
Hi.. John
Can i know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?
and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
Quote from: StarStar on June 10, 2009, 11:34:30 PM
Hi.. John
Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?
and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
Quote from: StarStar on June 10, 2009, 11:34:30 PM
Hi.. John
Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?
and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
Since I did not make up the staking plan, I honestly do not know what bankroll is good for Marven's Staking Plan.
For bets of 20 I would bring about 1,200 or 1,400 dollars. You probably do not need that much..But I like to be safe. When I do not have enough money I end up playing scared and if I play scared I am unsuccessful.
When I made over 1 thousand dollars with this method I only had a bankroll of $700 that I won in a poker tournament. I was playing a negative progression and everything worked out.
Quote from: StarStar on June 10, 2009, 11:34:30 PM
Hi.. John
Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?
and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
1200$-1400$, he said in his post on 1st page, I think.
Quote from: Trung on June 11, 2009, 12:18:07 AM
1200$-1400$, he said in his post on 1st page, I think.
Well I don't think the BR has been established yet It will depend on drawdowns and progression it uses it not established if this is a winner yet looks ok to start but it still a minute amount of shoes that have been tested
im confuse bout the chop mode
What is it actualy? what kind of sign is it?
sorry
Quote from: StarStar on June 11, 2009, 12:26:27 AM
im confuse bout the chop mode
What is it actualy? what kind of sign is it?
sorry
Don't worry about Chop mode and that bullshit mode stuff. I am about to make a post about some changes. I need to get back on track with this.
thanks john.... :thumbsup:
Quote from: StarStar on June 11, 2009, 12:33:05 AM
thanks john.... :thumbsup:
no problem. I am sorry for all of the confusion. I am going to go back and delete some posts to clear up some stuff that isn't important.
Quoteany thoughts?
Doing a great job John. My thoughts are that back testing methods (empirical results) is pointless to a degree - it can give you a foundation on what can happen and what to expect, but I've head too many say the best way to
really test something is experience. If you're not in the USA you could open an account at Dublinbet and play with play money. The original method seemed to be doing well for you, why change anything? - sign up an account and go hard mate. As for the bad shoes - you could set a stop loss based on the worst shoe you've seen perhaps or set it relative to the bank roll. 100 units isn't a big loss if you've made 900 - that's acceptable (realistic even) right? Unfortunately most mechanical systems don't go the distance but if your progression/staking plan is keeping you afloat - then like I said start playing with live shoes and go your hardest.
Don't forget Dublinbet has six deck shoes
The ones I have played in have 8 decks I think thats be majority it is about 80 decisions or so
I believe standard baccarat is 8. Usually 75 hands per shoe give or take.
U may apply 6 point devisor by Lanky ... i think it is a good strategy to catch the loss... not too explosive
Quote from: Natural9 on June 12, 2009, 07:50:29 PM
The ones I have played in have 8 decks I think thats be majority it is about 80 decisions or so
Ok thank you. I think that is the amount at AC.
Quote from: roules on June 12, 2009, 07:51:14 PM
I believe standard baccarat is 8. Usually 75 hands per shoe give or take.
Thank you
Played a session last night - made $1000 using $50 units (not real money :( ) over 5 shoes with a target of about 5 units per shoe (I say "about" because of the 5% commission etc). One shoe provided almost no triggers. I suspect one of the keys to playing this method like any other is to not play too many shoes.
I used the method outlined in reply #9. Felt pretty comfortable playing too - the deepest I went into the progression was 2.5. If I had to go further I'm trying to decide whether to wait for another trigger after maybe 4 or 5 losses or do something else like cap the bets at 4.5. Time will tell. Going to keep testing/playing and see how we go long term.
Cheers
Roules (should change my name to Bacs ::) )
Lol. No sooner after writing that post I played a session that didn't go as well. Things did recover but it's got me thinking about the progression, which has to be well structured to suit the bet selection (of course you say :) ). I like the idea of moving up a unit or half a unit at a time and using D'alemebrt, but I'm trying a different bet selection also. Don't mean to hijack your thread here by changing the goal posts but I think it will bring similar results.
Guys try to use the Carsch progression it works good on ECs. 1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14-21-32. Easy to use: after 2 losses in row ad 1 unit, after 2 wins in row subtract 1 unit. Win/Loss no change.
You lose 2 first hands bet still 1 unit, lose another 2 hand bet 2 units, after this won 2 hands in row go 1 unit down. Holds lot of bad hands.
Cheers Hermes
You cant add subjectivity for a mechanical system tho subjectivity is a good thing to have but thing is I could test the same shoe as you and come out with a differant result because of your or mine subjectivity but that wont prove if a method will work or not
Quote from: John1234 on June 15, 2009, 09:54:43 PM
I am going to test 50 shoes before I post any details on this idea for recovery. I know that 50 isn't a lot but there have been too many times where I have posted an idea and it failed after a few shoes of testing. So I need to get a little more to back the idea up.
I should have the 50 shoes done by the end of the week at the longest.
I believe that the method of play should work on choppy shoes because of the capping bets.
I also believe that it should work on streaky shoes because it has a streak recovery built in as well.
I also believe that the progression will be controlled because Marven's 5 level staking plan is non-explosive especially when used with solid bet selection.
I will give an update every 10 shoes.
I should hopefully be done the first 10 shoes within the next 1-2 hours.
I will post the stats soon.
Let me know when you have your idea down pat I and maybe others could eventually help in the testing and why did you go away from your original 3 cap I thought you were having some good results with it did you catch some bad shoes
All we needed to have is a controlled progression stop loss and BR requirements
I can honestly say I know absolutely nothing about the game of Baccarat. However, it looks as though Baccarat is a game where you can make even money bets. If that's true, and you guys are still looking for a decent progression I can suggest one (whether or not it will help, but I'm trying anyway, haha).
You can check it out here: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/money-management/the-midas-touch/
I just recently suggested this to somebody in the roulette area, as they were looking for a decent progression that wasn't terribly scary for even money outside bets. I have tried this progression with even money bets myself and have had great success with it (although nothing is foolproof).
Hope it helps guys, and I hope I didn't disrupt anything.
Hey there John, I just posted the post above, and then I noticed right above my post you mentioned that you deleted a bunch of your posts. If you think what I just posted goes against what you were shooting for on this thread feel free to remove.
If you try it however, and have some success, go ahead and put it back up (if you want, haha).
Sorry again if I threw anything in this thread off kilter.
Just did a test of 30 shoes using the 3 cap method, with a slight difference. I played each progression until a win and stopped, instead of playing until in profit. I tried 3 progressions:
Up half a unit on a loss and down half on a win
Up one unit on a loss and down one on a win
Up one unit on a loss and keep it there(never back down). eg a LW sequence like LLWLWWWLW would translate to (units bet) 123344445
Aka the aggressive D'alembert
Using $10 units always, mini-bac tables (40+/- hands excluding ties), commission not taken out. After 30 shoes:
Using the half unit progression +$310
Normal progression +$290
Aggressive progression -$70
The last 3 hands were shockers and shows how much damage can be done. This was based on playing the original prog in this thread only to 8 levels. The aggressive progression wins a lot more of course, the drawdown can be bad but generally isn't. Only four shoes came out negative and that was for all progressions. That the aggressive prog came out only -$70 is pretty good, the worst shoe it cost $1600 (160 units). You can imagine where it would of been without that one big loss though.
Actually - even a martingale prog came out +150 on these shoes. Limiting to only 3 or 4 bets could be key. It almost wins flat betting on these shoes (it would of if it weren't for commission!)
It hit on the following:
1st 65
2nd 37
3rd 14
4th 3
5th 5
6th 1
7th 0
8th 1
9th 1
Quote from: John1234 on June 16, 2009, 03:43:28 PM
I just had a quick look at the progression. It seems very interesting. I like how you try to win a set amount within 4 bets. I think that this can be used as a recovery to the capping bet then the streak bet, or maybe just the capping bet, because it seems to safely limit the amount of betting that you do. I have been trying to think of a progression that would limit the amount of bets that are needed to recover.
I have to go somewhere now so I do not have time to really think about it, but I am going to look more at this progression later tonight.
Thanks for sharing.
Would be much slower tho maybe you may not even get you win mark in a good shoe even
QuoteWas the worst shoe played with the aggressive progression or the half unit progression?
Tested all shoes with all 3 progressions. It's not really worth it as you can see though it averages out to barely one unit per shoe. I just ran that test to see how things would go.
N9 is right too it's a very slow way to go. It might be worth testing, you need a lot of time and patience to use it. I think Lanky says you only need a 40something% win rate for it to win but. I will look at Hermes prog as well. I really like this bet selection
I think the 6 point divisor would go good but you have to remember the 6 point divisor is more of a grind MM strategy so even with that your win per shoe may not even get to 6 but would be safe and maybe average 3 or 4
The problem if it is one which really it isnt is that with the Capping method you don't bet on every decision in the shoe
Yes you could do it any divisor you wanted and still use the safety brake but dont forget you are after a good MM a good bet selection and you need an MM to carry you thru the bad streaks it isnt uncommon for EC bets to go 12.13.14 times or more losses and the win and streak again
Maybe Try twice with a 1.2 type of bet then stop and wait for next cap to bet again maybe you need bet it 3 timeslike BBBpB then bet here three times for B that way you get the chop because this scenario of BBBPBPB then play the chop there are so many scenarioS and this is the reason why this game is hard to win against
Quote from: John1234 on June 17, 2009, 01:04:06 AM
I did some testing using the divisor idea and it held up very well, although I need to add a definite system of safety nets. But for not having a great plan for safety nets it did great.
Even when the progression for the divisor begins to get high it still only needs to win 2-3 bets to recover most of the time. I think that 2-3 bets is reasonable. In my testing (without a good safety net plan) the highest bet I have made has been 2.5 units and that was once or twice in a handful of shoes.
I have also noticed that there are less bets being made which should mean less commission going to banker bets.
I have a basic idea of how I want to work the divisor recovery and I have some safety net ideas that I am going to work on tomorrow. The divisor method is showing a lot of potential. So I am going to end on a good note and work on it more tomorrow, maybe some more ideas will come in my sleep.
you are preaching to the converted as far as the
divisor plan goes for me
You need thanks the Lankster for converting alot on here to the divisor method there are many ways of using it too you could bet normal to a certain loss then use the Divisor methods for recovery
Hey John,
You had it with your first idea I reckon, up half a unit at a time. I doubt you'll get more than 5 or 6 units out of a shoe using a mechanical system and backing the chops if they come? Still makes it mechanical. Cut the losses after 3 or 4 bets I say - anything more isn't common (from testing - and I said empirical results were worthless lol).
Is playing the way you do, ie continuing until in profit worthwhile over playing just 3 or 4 hands?
Grand martingale(3 step - 1,5,20) or similar makes a lot more profit if you were brave enough to use it, but it depends if you want to grind safely along small profits or go for a bigger prize :).
Wondering how this would go with roulette and craps......
I'm going to choose a progression to go with this bet selection (which I'm liking - thanks again for posting) and play when I can over the next week or two at Dublinbet. My balance is I think is about #2400 (play money). We'll see what happens
Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.
I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.
Thanks
Diarmaid
Hey Diarmaid - long time no see. I think we're still trying to agree on that ourselves but I'm pretty much going off reply #9 on the first page.
Quote from: Diarmaid on June 17, 2009, 03:25:50 PM
Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.
I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.
Thanks
Diarmaid
I posted a reply to your post but it vanished so I will post again.
As Roules stated we are still trying to agree on something. It is difficult to find a progression because you have to find a progression that is unique to the bet selection. And I keep coming up with ideas on how to improve the method, but most of my ideas fail. The only progression that has worked for me has been the riskier one that I posted with the original method.
There are a few rules that are important to the method.
1.) When you win 5.5 to 6 units stop and do not play anymore. 6 units seems to be the average you will win per shoe. I have found that if you try to go for 7 or 8 units then you will lose all the profit sometimes. However sometimes you can have a 10 unit shoe, but that is rare. When you win 6 units real quick it is very important to use the discipline and stop. I have seen it win quick then the shoe becomes choppy and it becomes impossible to bounce back.
2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 4 losses in a row or 4 out of 5, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet. This rule also depends on how risky you want to be. To be safer you could wait for 3 loses then stop and wait for the new trigger, this will mean that you will not climb the progression ladder fast.
3.) stop loss, I think we decided that it should be somewhere around 20 units? Something like that.
So basically you are looking for 3 or more of the same outcome to be capped by the opposite outcome. At that moment you bet the side that streaked. If you win then you are done. If you lose then you use the progression to recover, betting streaks.
So an example of a win
B
B
B
P bet B
B
An if you lose
P
P
P
P
B Bet P
B Bet B
B win
The progression that I use is 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5 and so on, you are going up .5 each time you lose.
Here is the recovery aspect of the method.
When you win you go up until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 1.5 bet then you stop and you have recovered. Wait for the next trigger
When you lose the 1.5 bet you continue up the ladder. Upon hitting the 2 unit bet you have to work your way back down the ladder until you are .5 units or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 2 bet then you can either step down to 1.5 or jump down to 1. Your choice.
If you lose the 2 bet then you go to the 2.5 bet. At this point you have to win the 2.5 bet two times before you can work your way down the ladder, and the same goes for each bet after 2.5.
When you have won the 2.5 bet or any bet higher than 2.5 you work your way down, adjusting your bets to meet the recovery win goal and you own limits. For instance, sometimes you can jump a unit if you want to play safe or sometimes you can just go straight on down until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead.
Once you get .5 or 1 unit ahead the recovery is over, now matter how far down the ladder you still have to go. So if you get ahead at the 2 unit bet and you are .5 or 1 unit ahead then you stop and go back into capping mode.
Now if I have a few capping bets that streaked and only produced .5 units in a row then I will start my base bet at 1.5 units. Usually I do this if I get 3 wins of .5 units. Then once I get within the 6 unit range I will go back to 1 unit base.
There are at least 50 example shoes that I tested and posted on here. It did well in the 50 shoes and it did great when I played it live. But there will be times when it loses. The key is to keep loses to a min. That is why I am looking for a better progression.
You are testing Marvens 5 level plan, with your method? So your not using the up and down 0.5 units?
So marvens plan kicks in if you lose that first bet after a 3+ cap?
Also do you just ignore the Ties, is this a 3+cap PPTPB ???
Sorry for all the questions
Cheers
D
Also do you just ignore the Ties, is this a 3+cap PPTPB
or this
BBBBTP (bet B now?)
Ignore ties like they never existed
Played 2 shoes.
+€120 €10 units
Beginners luck maybe. Hopefully not. :)
I am a little puzzled by this rule. ???
2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 3 losses in a row or 3 out of 4, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet.
Wouldnt this mean you would never get to 2.5 units in the progression?? or am I missing something.
Cheers
D
Hi John1234,
When are you going to try your system for real?
I'm in the process of copying yours. Will study it later.
Thanks.
Great job, John. Its really better a positive progression. Greetings.
Javier.
Which pattern is the method prone to now John maye put al lthe rules MM and BR requirement in pne post
Hi John,
Finally came to conclusion huh? That's pretty complex at a first glance. How do you get a LW registry if you need it early on in the shoe? If you won the first two caps say, your registry would be WW, but you need five Ls or Ws to determine how much to bet next.
I played my first live shoe in a casino today - until now I'd only played online(live dealer of course). I had a ball too - made 22 units in one and a quarter shoes(mini bac) and very happy with myself :) It's amazing watching some people playing - no apparent bet selection or money management but they still keep reaching into their pockets for more $100 bills! Crazy stuff. I actually went there to play roulette and got rolled in about 12 spins. Stupid roulette, I'm gonna stick with the cards for now.
I went off tangent a bit and came up with my own system that I played today based on some good tests. Take the first three decisions and play against them for the rest of the shoe using a 1,3,7 progression. It works well but of course it loses every now and again.
And to clarify from before - on 'no commission' baccarat the general rule is they only pay half on a winning banker 6 bet. So if you bet $100 on banker and it won with a 6 you would only get $50.
Quote from: John1234 on June 22, 2009, 06:00:48 PM
Summery:
Yesterday I made 2 posts outlining a new idea that I have to improve the method. I am now going to post a summery post to condense all of the information so that it is not as overwhelming. I will try to just present the basic information that you should know about this idea. As I said a few posts ago, it is just an idea, not set in stone. It did much better in 50 shoes than the original method but it may not do as good in another 50, more testing is needed.
The summery post will cover
1.) The basic Rules
2.) Money Management Rules (this includes Progression and BR requirements)
3.) Bet Selection Overview
1.) Basic Rules:
A) You are making the normal 3+capping bet. The normal 3+capping bet is PPPB then bet P or PPPPB then bet P. So it is 3 OR MORE of the same outcome capped by the opposite outcome. At that moment you bet the 3+side to return so this simply means you are betting for the capped outcome to chop. This is the same bet that I presented in the original method.
B) When you lose the 3+capping bet you use the recovery bet selection until you recover to even or +1 unit ahead. For example: If you are ahead 1 unit and you lose, you begin to recover until you get ahead 1 unit again. Sometimes the progression will have you making a bet that will result in a gain of 1 more unit.
C) When You complete the recovery you go back to the 3+capping Bet.
D) 2 phases. When You win Phase 1, go to phase 2. When you win phase 2 you are done.
2) Money Management Rules:
A) The total Win goal of the Shoe is 6-10 units. When you win 9-10 units you stop playing the shoe. You can also stop anytime between 6-10 units.
B) There is a 9 and 10 unit stopper. A 9 and 10 unit stopper means that if you get to 9 units before 10 then you stop playing the shoe. If you get to 10 units then you stop.
C) 9/10 unit stopper condition. If you only lose one 3+capping bet in both phases and you reach the 9 unit mark then attempt to make 10 units. If you lose the bet then stop.
D) There are 2 phases to the shoe. Phase 1 has a win goal of 5 units. Upon winning phase 1 you stop and restart the progression as you enter phase 2. Phase 2 has a 5 unit win goal. When you win phase 2 you are done playing.
E) In phase 1, you bet the shoe's basic bet selection that I outlined.
F) In phase 2 you can change the bet only if you have 1 winning 3+capping bet. If I only win one 3+capping bet in phase 1 then I will give the 3+capping bet in phase 2 a chance. If it losses then I will switch the 3+capping bet to 3+capping streaks. This means that when you get 3 more or more of the opposite outcome that is capped you bet that the side that capped the 3+ will streak. If you lose then you go back to the normal recovery and bet selection. This is something that I do. If you don't understand what I am saying then just don't do it. The shoe has to be very streaky for me to even perform this switch.
G) Marven's 5 Level Staking Plan is the progression. The staking plan is used in both phases of the shoe. After you win phase 1 you stop and restart the progression for Phase 2.
H) If you are using a base bet higher than $15 then never bet 5 units and rarely bet 4 units. The highest bet that you could make in Marven's Staking plan is 5 units. The second highest bet you can make is 4 units. I find that this approach is a safer approach to take.
Here is an example of when not to bet 4 or 5 units.
WWWWW you reach 3+capping bet and you have a profit of 4 units, so you only need one unit to reach your 5 unit win goal in phase 1. So you only bet 1 unit. If You win then you have made 5 units and now you can enter phase with a clean slate on the staking plan.
HOWEVER if you lose then the staking plan will look like this
WWWWL you will be down to 3 units. Now you bet 2 units. The normal bet should be 4 units but you only need 2 to recover. If you win then you have 5 units and you go into phase 2.
HOWEVER if you lose then the staking plan will look like this
WWWLL now you bet in sync with the staking plan. So your bet will be 3 units
The only time I bet 4 units is when I want to recover faster or I am feeling risky or something like that. The minimum tables near me are $20 dollars, if the tables were only $5 then I would have no problem betting 4 or 5 units.
I) Stop Loss-- More testing is needed to determine the stop loss. Maybe between 15-20 units?
3.) Bet Selection Overview:
A) The main Bet selection is the 3+capping bet. In the perfect shoe this is the only bet that you would have to make. However, in reality this is not the case. I am not going to describe the 3+capping bet because I have a million times. If anyone does not understand it then just post asking me to explain and I will.
B) The Secondary Bet Selection covers the recovery bets.
-When you are recovering there are a few differing sequences that you are looking for. You do not need to do any tracking, you are betting according to how the B's and P's fall into place.
C) Streak Bet: The first Recovery Bet is a streak Bet. If you win this bet then you are done the recovery because you should have come out even.
Example:
B
B
B
B
P Bet B
P now streak Bet P for the streak Bet
P Win
D) Dominate Bet: The dominate side bet and the streak bet sort of go Hand in Hand with each other. I guess you can say that the bets compliment each other. This is because both bets run into each other. This will make sense as I explain the bet. If you lose the streak Bet then you bet for the dominate side to return. The dominate side bet is more than likely the bet that you will see the most during the recovery period. Whenever you win the dominate bet you stay with what you have labeled as the dominate side.
When you lose you make one more dominate side bet. If you lose that bet then there should be a pattern that looks like this XX YY XX YY XX YY This is what knocks you into streak mode again. It only takes one lose in streak mode to knock you back into the dominate side bet. All of this is explained in the example below.
Example:
B
B
B
P Bet B
P now streak Bet P
B Lose now P is dominate so bet P
P win now stay with P as the dominate side
P Win Bet P
B now you stay with P as the dominate side
P Win Bet P as the dominate side still
P Win Bet P
B Lose stay with P as the dominate side
B now bet streak mode. NOTICE HOW YOU HAVE BB
P as you can see B is dominate so you bet for B
B Win now stay with B as the dominate side.
B Win
P Stay with B as dominate side
P now bet streaks on P NOTICE HOW YOU HAVE PP
P win bet P
P win Bet P
E) The Chop Bet: This is the final type of recovery Bet. You only Bet the Chops when you have a patterN such as PBP or BPB, you need 3 losses in a row, NOT 3 CHOPS IN A ROW.
Example:
B
B
B
P Bet B 3+capping
P Bet P Streak
B Notice how fast the streak bet runs into the dominate side bet Now bet P
P Win now stay with P as the dominate side
B Now stay with P for one more bet because you need BB to enter streak mode.
P Win so you are going to bet P again STILL BETTING DOMINATE SIDE.
B Lose now you have your xyx pattern (BPB) here you will bet P. There are 3 losses in a row so you are betting the chops
P Now you will bet B because you are still betting the Chops
B Win
I do not think that I am missing anything. I'll gladly answer any questions.
John thanks for the hard work you put in looks good Is there any chance you can put a couple o shoes down to show how the thing works in real
Would be appreciated
Regards Rodney
Hello! Really a big and good job. I want to make you a question. Its about PP BB PP BB PP. . . . . When you find a PPP BB PP BB PP. . . how do you play?
Regards.
Javier.
Yes. I think when you find something like that PP BB PP BB, you are destroyed but only lost 1 chip with positive progression. Do you think something about STOP when you find a PP BB PP. . . ? Perhaps it may be useful, dont you think?
Thank you for your fast answer.
Regards.
Javier.
Hello !!! Last night I did my first shoe in real and I think it was a really hard shoe. Ill write it now. How would you have played it? It is very interesting your answer for me. Thank you again. Greetings from Spain.
The infernal shoe:
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
P
B
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
B
Javier.
isn't it funny about gambling?
if you play for REAL money.. somehow you lose.... like they are cheating on us...
yes been there done that seems like the gambling gods are playing with us at times
I agree with that too...and when you are losing the person next to you is winning but they have no idea what they are doing. One day I was playing roulette. I was sitting at the table playing the min bet and I was up about $200 which was 40 units. Thinking back to it, I should have walked away, but it took me so long to win that much that I wanted to stay and win more. My luck started going bad and this girl walked up and starts putting chips down on random numbers. Within 20 minutes she was cashing out with an extra $600 and I lost half of my winnings. The worst part was that she had no idea what she was doing.
Hello again, John. Thank you for your great job and for show me how to play the shoe. :) I have to say to you that you cant win every shoe you play. It cant be a obsession. Really only need to win more that you lose. This is most important thing. Its good to try to get a better system, but not to get a PERFECT system.
Thank you again for all. Greetings.
Javier.
So what do you think the rules should be now John because I wan t to help you test it
Natural 9-
I answered this post awhile ago now I am modifying it.
That is a good question...As of now, the rules are the same as the original method but with a stop loss. As far as testing goes, I am going to hold off on that for awhile. I think I found a new method which is a spin off the 3+capping method. The new method has proven to be much safer than the 3+capping method and very simple. I have details about it in the post below.
I really wanted to start some intense testing for the 3+capping method but I ended up stumbling upon something that i think is far better. If it holds up then I will defiantly have the details posted in a new thread within the next two weeks. At this point I would not be putting the 3+capping method off to the side unless I defiantly think I found something better. So If you want to test it then the rules are still the same but if you want to wait to see what I will hopefully be presenting within the next 2 weeks then it may be a good idea to wait.
Sorry for jumping from idea to idea, I think all of my jumping around has finally come to an end and hopefully it has come to an end because this thread is like 12 pages of nothing haha.
Good one John I will wait to youi come up with your new idea then go from there Is good you are tweaking things you never know what you might come up with and thanks for all the hard work and if you need anything help give me a PM or something
Regards to you mate
Rodney
John,
What was your largest drawdown so far with your new method?
Hello John1234,
I have the 3000 shoes you mentioned in your post above. I have tried to PM you the data a couple of times but failed. I just can't attach the file. Please let me know how to do it and I will send you immediately.
Regards
sniper
Thanks for trying. Maybe my email will work? Try soccerball66@gmail.com
Thank you very much
Hello John1234,
I have PM the data to you, please check your mail.
Please let me know should you have any problem.
Best wishes and hope you will be successful in your baccarat system.
Regards
sniper
Sniper--
Thank you very much for the shoes. I owe you
I have had my most productive day of testing so far.
When testing the 2+capping method I came across a tweak to the 3+capping method. I cannot stop jumping from one idea to the other.
anyway, I have tested it on 50 shoes so far and I am impressed with the results. I think that I have found a way to win more often then I lose with this method. I am now much more confident with the 3+capping method, well at least for as long as the method holds up in testing.
I have made the 6-10 unit win goal in most shoes out of the 50 that I have tested and it is a fairly easy tweak to play.
I have added a 10 unit stop loss for each shoe
I have come up with (or rediscovered) a positive/negative combo progression that does not allow you to bet more than 4 units. It is a very easy progression to understand.
I added a tweak to the method at around the 40th shoe so I am going to test for another 50 shoes before I post. If I continue to win more than I lose after 100 shoes then I will post about the tweak.
As I said before I am getting very confident with the tweak of the 3+capping method, but maybe someone can think of an even better tweak who knows.
Here are my results
Shoe 1: 10 units
Shoe 2: 7 units
Shoe 3: 9 units
Shoe 4: 6 units
Shoe 5: 6 units
Shoe 6: 7 units
Shoe 7: 6 units
Shoe 8: 6 units
Shoe 9: -2 units
Shoe 10: 6 units
Shoe 11: 6 units
Shoe 12: 6 units
Shoe 13: 6 units
Shoe 14: 7 units
Shoe 15: 10.5 units
Shoe 16: 6 units
Shoe 17: 4 units
Shoe 18: 9 units
Shoe 19: 6 units
Shoe 20: 9 units
Shoe 21: 6 units
Shoe 22: 3 units
Shoe 23: 9 units
Shoe 24: 8 units
Shoe 25: 6 units
Shoe 26: 7 units
Shoe 27: 7 units
Shoe 28: 10 units
Shoe 29: 7 units
Shoe 30: -10 units
Shoe 31: 10 units
Shoe 32: 6 units
Shoe 33: 10 units
Shoe 34: 4 units
Shoe 35: -10 units
Shoe 36: 10 units
Shoe 37: 6 units
Shoe 38: 8 units
Shoe 39: 7 units
shoe 40: -4 units
Shoe 41: 7 units
Shoe 42: 9 units
Shoe 43: 6 units
Shoe 44: 6 units
Shoe 45: 8 units
Shoe 46: 8 units
Shoe 47: 10 units
Shoe 48: 6 units
Shoe 49: -3 units
Shoe 50: 10 units
5 out of 50 shoes did not win
I Did did the math real fast so I may have added wrong but the method won ABOUT 295.5 units which is $5930.00 dollars at $20 base bets.
I will recalculate later.
Also, many of the shoes could have won more than 6 units but I stopped at 6 for a lot of shoes. It is also possible to get well over a 10 unit win.
Hello John1234,
It's nice to hear that you are making positive breakthrough. Congratulation!! When the going gets tough, the toughs get going. You have the mindset of a successful person. Keep it up my friend.
Regards
sniper
Quote from: sniper on July 11, 2009, 08:19:22 PM
Hello John1234,
It's nice to hear that you are making positive breakthrough. Congratulation!! When the going gets tough, the toughs get going. You have the mindset of a successful person. Keep it up my friend.
Regards
sniper
Thank you very much for that compliment. I hope that my positive breakthrough continues through the next 50 shoes
Hello John1234,
The most important thing to take care is the drawdown. As long as you know how to keep your losses low, you have the chance to succeed. Do not look at the result of every single shoe. As long as you can make average of 5 to 6 units every 5 shoes consistently, I believe you have found your HG. To be a long term winner, you have to be very practical and consistent as far as BS and daily target is concern. I may be wrong, this is just my personal way of looking at things. Different people have different expectation. Whatever it is, the person who can take money home, irrespective of small or large amount is in a way the ultimate WINNER.
Regards
sniper
Quote from: sniper on July 11, 2009, 08:55:13 PM
Hello John1234,
The most important thing to take care is the drawdown. As long as you know how to keep your losses low, you have the chance to succeed. Do not look at the result of every single shoe. As long as you can make average of 5 to 6 units every 5 shoes consistently, I believe you have found your HG. To be a long term winner, you have to be very practical and consistent as far as BS and daily target is concern. I may be wrong, this is just my personal way of looking at things. Different people have different expectation. Whatever it is, the person who can take money home, irrespective of small or large amount is in a way the ultimate WINNER.
Regards
sniper
I agree with exactly what you said. I think that one of the most important factors to success is being practical. The hg, as far as I am concerned lies within us. There elements that go into the hg that many people overlook. the hg consists of more than bet selection and so on. Our values, objectives, traits, and how realistic we can be are the foundations to our own personal hg. I think that so many people focus too much on the mechanics and not so much the additional factors that go into success with gambling and with life.
Sniper, John
So so true both of you, I think controlling your emotions is also a key factor.
I personally think that money management is the most important factor when it comes to any sort of gambling.
Cheers
D
I think money management is most difficult thing.. I always lose my control.. and if I play gambling often then I start thinking about gambling all the time and distruct my personal life also..
that's why i like sport betting.. i don't have to sit at table....
Quote from: Diarmaid on July 11, 2009, 10:51:06 PM
Sniper, John
So so true both of you, I think controlling your emotions is also a key factor.
I personally think that money management is the most important factor when it comes to any sort of gambling.
Cheers
D
Yes emotions are very important. I always have trouble controlling my emotions when I lose. i hate to lose but I guess that we have to accept that we are gambling and losing comes with gambling, so we have to accept losing as a reality. I always have my emotions in check when I play poker, but in any other type of gambling, I always have a tough time controlling my emotions.
Quote from: Joker on July 12, 2009, 01:20:48 AM
I think money management is most difficult thing.. I always lose my control.. and if I play gambling often then I start thinking about gambling all the time and distruct my personal life also..
that's why I like sport betting.. I don't have to sit at table....
I also think about gambling all the time when I gamble. I think that is a bad thing haha. But I am the type of person that gets tired of something if I think about it too often. It happened to me with poker and roulette. I don't think it will happen with baccarat because I have finally found a balance between everything else in my life. It is important to find that perfect balance and to not let gambling take control of your life.
Also I always like to do things to work on my self-discipline. I have found that working on self-discipline is actually rewarding in life and I expect it to help in gambling. I set a goal after my last visit to the casino to not go until the first week of August. I have done this to work on my self-discipline. It has been very hard but so far I have made it this far. Emotions and self-control can be improved. My coaches in sports always preached about mental toughness, I think that the same goes for gambling.
Well I cracked and finally played live. I did not make it to August 1st. However, I did not play at a casino. I put money onto my Bet Phoenix account. I am playing the 3+capping method with the tweak. I'm playing the minimum bet which is 5.00 and I think that the commission is only 3%. and the max bet is 100 but I don't plan to bet the max. The highest bet in my progression will be $15.00 (3 units). I also think that Bet Phoenix uses an 8 deck shoe.
I made 8 units before I stopped. I should have made about 11 units but I made a few mistakes because I am not used to betting on a computer. I had no drawdown for my session.
My goal is to make between 6-12 units per day.
I will post the tweak after I finish the next 50 shoes of testing. It is very hard for me to test because I am busy during the week but I will get around to finishing the shoes at some point.
Oh and I live in USA I originally wanted to wait until Frank's bill gets through, but if it does pass then who knows how long it will take to go into effect.
Hello John1234,
Congratulation!!! Hope this is the beginning of more success to come.
Regards
sniper
Quote from: sniper on July 12, 2009, 12:35:37 PM
Hello John1234,
Congratulation!!! Hope this is the beginning of more success to come.
Regards
sniper
Thank you..so do I. And if I lose then I don't care because I am using a few hundred that I won off a free chip at some online casino. But hopefully I will keep my emotions in check and stay practical.
Right now I do not have the time to test 50 shoes so I will just post the tweak to the 3+capping method.
I spent awhile working on the 2+capping method but it would lose too much and I couldn't stand the large drawdowns. While testing the 2+capping method I found a way to improve the 3+capping method.
First, I will review the 3+capping bet selection. The bet selection is 3 or more of the same outcome capped by the opposite outcome. When the streak of 3 or more is capped you bet for the chop.
Example BBB (3 or more) P (capped by P now bet for B) B Win.
P
P
P
P
B Bet for P
P Win
Now I will talk about recovery bet selection and progression. This is what I am currently playing with on bet phoenix and this is what I have been testing.
The most important factor with this method is to be realistic. When you enter the recovery you may really have to grind it out and sometimes it can get frustraiting. It is important to keep your emtions in check and to not let your bets get too large.
I think that when you use a progression it is extremely important to control the progression. If you can control the progression and get it insync with the shoe then you will easily make a profit, however this is often a challenge.
The recovery bet selection and progression go hand in hand with eachother. I will describe the progression and then follow it up with some very iimportant rules:
The bet selection uses a count. The count is written as P v B. The count of the player is always on the same side and the same goes for the count of the banker.
-When you get a win the count goes up by 2 when you get a loss the count goes up by 1. So when Player wins you add 2 and since player won you add 1 to the banker. If banker wins next then you add 2 to the count of the banker and since player lost you add 1 to the count of the player.
Example
P 2v1
B 3v3
P 5v4
P 7v5
P 9v6
B 10v8
B 11v10
- You always start the count off at 2v0, or 0V2, whichever side won. The proceeding loss goes up by 2, then every bet after, the proceeding bet goes up by 1.
Example
B
B
B
B
B
P 3+capping trigger bet for B to come
P Loss Now the count is 2v0
P Win you are recovered. so stop and wait for next trigger
Example 2:
P
P
P
P
B 3+capping trigger bet for P to come next
B Loss, count is 0v2 now bet for B
P Loss count is now 2v3, this is the first loss following the last bet so it goes up by 2. Now you are still betting for B
B Win now count is 3v5, as you can see P is now going up by 1 when it losses bet for B to come again
P Now count is 5v6 B went up by 1 and P went up by 2 since it won, but you are still betting for B
The reason why I start the count off at 2v0 or 2v2 is because it creates the opportunity to quickly recoup all losses and make 1 unit profit. By the end of each recovery you should make 1 unit profit, that is the goal except in certain circumstances which I'll explain later.
Always restart the count at the end of the recovery
-here is the progression aspect of the count.
To decide how much to bet you take the difference of the two counts. So if your count is 2v4 then you are betting 2 units for B to come next. If the count is 3v7 then you are betting 4 units for B to come next. So the progression ends up working as a positive progression because when you win you are increasing your unit bet by 1 unit.
never bet more 5 units. If you have a count of 4v9 then bet 4 units instead of 5. As I said before, you do not want the progression to get out of control. Also, it is important to adjust your bets based on how much you want to win and your goals. For example if you need to make a 4 unit bet but you want to be safe then make a 3 unit bet. Success of this method depends a lot on how safe you are.
When the count is even
When you get an even count bet the opposite side. so if the count is 3v3 then you bet opposite of the current outcome.
The count does great in streaks and it protects the bankroll during zigzags. But I find it best to take advantage of the zigzigas.
ZigZag Mode
If you get a sequences like this BBBPPBPBPB then begin to bet the zigzags at the second zig zag. So the first zig zag was PBP. The second zigzag was BPB. Now go into ZigZag Mode.
During this mode you are still keeping count. You are still betting based on the difference of the two counts. However you are not betting based off the higher count, you are betting hoping for the zigzag to continue. When the zigzag is broken go back into full count mode. This has been very effective for me.
Streak Mode: Idea is a work in progress
I play streaks but only after I have made at least 7 units. When In streak mode I flat bet and I wait until I get 3 of the same outcome. This is what has resulted in many 10 unit shoes by the 50th decision. I only do this in a streaky shoe.
Stop Loss and Safety nets
This aspect of the system really depends on your goals, size of bankroll and so on. I have a stop loss of 10 units.
For base bets higher than $15.00 I will follow the stop loss of 10 units
For a base bet of $5.00 my stop loss increases to 20 units because I have a larger bankroll.
There is a 5-6 unit safety net. If at anytime you lose a total of 5-6 units then stop playing the recovery and wait for the next capping trigger. Then renter the recovery.
If i am playing with $5 base bets then I don't really follow this rule but with higher base bets I do. I find that it recovers much quicker if you sometimes just stop and wait for the next capping bet then continue the recovery where you left off.
This rule also depends on how streaky the shoe is. If the shoe is starting to get streaky then you may not want to enforce this rule because streaks will work to your advantage.
Rules:
1.) Win goal of 6-10 units
2.) Stop loss of 10-20 units
3.) If the recovery goes on for too long then accept a loss pick the recovery back up at the next 3+capping trigger. Try to get as close to even as possible. The goal of the recovery it is to always recover +1 unit but sometimes you need to accept that it wont happen without a huge drawdown. So avoid the large drawdown and wait it out.
4.) If you want to be safer then follow the 5 unit safety net
5.) The main bet selection is the 3+capping selection
6.) Never bet five units while in the progression
7.) When count is even bet the opposite outcome.
8.) enter Zig Zag mode after 2 Zig Zags, but continue with count and continue betting based off the difference of the counts
9.) Always restart the count when entering a new capping bet. So if you recover and the count is 8v3 then you stop and wait for the next 3+capping trigger the count will be rest with the next recovery.
10.) Start the count of a 2v0 or 0v2, whichever outcome came out. This will allow you to take advantage of a streak of 3.
11.) The first losing outcome in the count will go up by 2. Each losing outcome after that goes up by 1. There is an example of this rule posted above.
As I said before, the most important factor is to be realistic and control emotions. If you pay attention to the shoe then you can sometimes make a bet opposite from what the count tells you to bet. For example. if the recovery is going on for too long and I see a streak of 3 capped by the opposite outcome then i will sometimes make the 3+capping bet, even if the count tells me that I am supposed to bet for the capped side to return.
I think I hit on all of the rules and aspects of this method. if there is anything missing then I will add it. There is probably a way to improve the method and I will be happy to answer any questions.
Excellent System John,
3 questions
1, In your rule 11 you say "take advantage of a streak of 3" what do you mean here?
2, When you get your first loss and the count is either 2v0 or 0v2, do you then bet 2 units on the next bet? I presume you do as 2-0=2???
3, Things with this system seem to be changing a lot as time goes on. My question is, what do you base the changes from? I think if you are basing changes to deal with big drawdowns found then you will only find that it will have a negitive effect to previous positive results. Any changes that are made need to be tested over all previous shoes and then made a 100% rule.
Just my 2 cents, from some years of system designing.
I have been playing this way with €2 units and so far Im making over €10 per shoe 5+ units
Maybe when you have the time you could post a couple of example shoes.
Cheers
D
Hello John1234,
Thanks for posting your baccarat system. I really admire your dedication and enthusiasm. Wish you success in your baccarat challenge.
Regards
sniper
Quote from: Diarmaid on July 13, 2009, 04:22:29 AM
Excellent System John,
3 questions
1, In your rule 11 you say "take advantage of a streak of 3" what do you mean here?
2, When you get your first loss and the count is either 2v0 or 0v2, do you then bet 2 units on the next bet? I presume you do as 2-0=2???
3, Things with this system seem to be changing a lot as time goes on. My question is, what do you base the changes from? I think if you are basing changes to deal with big drawdowns found then you will only find that it will have a negitive effect to previous positive results. Any changes that are made need to be tested over all previous shoes and then made a 100% rule.
Just my 2 cents, from some years of system designing.
I have been playing this way with €2 units and so far Im making over €10 per shoe 5+ units
Maybe when you have the time you could post a couple of example shoes.
Cheers
D
1.) What I mean by take advantage of a streak of 3 is that during the recovery you are taking advantage of a lot of the three streaks by starting off with the 2 unit bet. For example when you lose the 3+capping bet you will often get a streak of 3. By betting 2 units you should recover within the 3rd outcome of the streak. If you were to start the recovery with a 1 unit bet then you would need a streak of 4 to recover. I think it makes more sense to attempt to recover quicker, rather than wait for a longer streak.
2.) Here is an example
So lets say you lose the 3+capping bet.
This is the sequence:
B
B
B
P Bet B (3+capping bet)
P Now you start the count at 2v0 (notice that if you win you will have taken advantage of the streak of 3) Bet for P
B you lose so now the count is 3v2. You only bet 1 unit. Since the difference of 3 and 2 is 1.
P is the losing side, so it goes up by a count of 1
B is the winning side so it goes up by a count of 2.
then you take the difference and that is your bet.
Now if the sequence looked like this
B
B
B
P 3+capping bet
P lose now count is 2v0 you are betting 2 units on P
P Win the count is 4v1. BUT you have recovered so there is no reason to bet. The count restarts for the next recovery.
P went up by 2 because it won
B went up by 1 because it was the losing side.
And notice that you took advantage of the streak of 3.
3.) Things with this system have been changing a lot as time went on. But now I am done changing things unless someone ends up showing coming up with a tweak to the count that makes it much better. You are correct on why I have been changing so much, I have been trying to deal with the big drawdowns. And I agree with what you say about how it has a negative effect on the previous positive results. But I have been testing the method over all previous shoes. I test on previous shoes that I have tested on before I go onto new shoes.
I have been playing this method for real money now. It is up 8 units. I will play again tonight for another 8 units and I will give an update on how I do.
I have noticed that if you play with small units then it will be more successful. The only problem is that live casinos have a 20-30 min so it is a bit risky. Bet Phoenix has a 5 dollar min table which is nice.
I will post some example shoes at some point.
Hope this helps
Quote from: sniper on July 13, 2009, 06:58:17 AM
Hello John1234,
Thanks for posting your baccarat system. I really admire your dedication and enthusiasm. Wish you success in your baccarat challenge.
Regards
sniper
Thank you very much
I have a goal of winning 4 units per day for the next 7-8 weeks. This should put my bankroll up to $1000.00. When I get to $1000.00 I wills start to play for 6 units per day and I will never play for anything higher than 6 units.
Starting Bankroll $200.00
Current Bankroll $260.00 +12 units
My starting bankroll is a bit low but it is free money that I won somewhere so I figured that it wouldn't hurt to just roll it over to another casino. I am playing with 5 dollar units so if I win 4 units per day that is = to $20 per day. That should come out to be $140 per week. I will not begin withdrawing and playing for 6 units until I get up to the $1000 mark.
The method that I posted above was doing fine then I hit some bad shoes. the terrible two's were killing it. I actually have been using another person's system as a recovery and I have been having great results.
Hi John!
Think that your system works great and I really appreciate your work!!
I've also been struggling with the terrible twos. Must be careful with those because it can hurt your bankroll really hard.
What do you do to recover from the twos john?
I played some roulette before but since you came up with this way of playing I can't take my eyes from baccarat!
It's strange but I can see a lot more patterns in this game.
At last, when you got the 3+capping trigger and you play the opposite from last, what do you do if it turns out to be equal? playing the same as before?
I mean like this: PPPB/ are you playing B again?
Thanks for all! :good:
Quote from: fatherfred on July 16, 2009, 05:27:37 PM
Hi John!
Think that your system works great and I really appreciate your work!!
I've also been struggling with the terrible twos. Must be careful with those because it can hurt your bankroll really hard.
What do you do to recover from the twos john?
I played some roulette before but since you came up with this way of playing I can't take my eyes from baccarat!
It's strange but I can see a lot more patterns in this game.
At last, when you got the 3+capping trigger and you play the opposite from last, what do you do if it turns out to be equal? playing the same as before?
I mean like this: PPPB/ are you playing B again?
Thanks for all! :good:
Thank you, I am happy to see that the system has been going well. I used to play a lot of roulette as well, mostly even chances, but I never had much success...well I had some success but I always got too greedy. I think that baccarat is an easier game to some degree.
As far as the terrible twos go, I honestly have not really worked on that lately. I have been busy with work and other stuff. I haven't really been using the recovery method when I play online for my 4 units. I have been betting against the last 7 with an up as you win progression as the recovery and it has been working great. The terrible twos were killing me and I got sick of having to play for more than 2 hours to make 4 units. Thats why I switched, but at some point I will look into this issue in greater depth. Sorry that I can't provide a better answer to your question.
I am confused about your second question. Are you asking what to do if there is an equal count? If that is what you are asking then here is what you do.
P
P
P
B 3+capping trigger
B Lose 0v2 now bet 2 units for B
P Lose 2v3 now bet 1 unit for B since the B side has the higher count
P Lose 4v4 now the count is even. you are betting the opposite outcome so bet for B
B win...this actually helps to take care of the terrible 2's to a point but if terrible two's keep coming in streaks then you will lose money
Was that your question?
6/16/09- Win goal for the day is achieved. I won +4 units. It took about 15 minutes and I had to go to the first 2 unit recovery bet everytime.
Total= +16 units = $80.00
I am having anandram code me a bot. I am going up to school in one month so I will not have time to try to make my 4 units every day. The bot that he is coding for me does not have the recovery bet selection or the progression because I do not like the idea of my money being risked on a progressive system without me there to control it. It simply flat bets whenever there is a 3+capping trigger then it flat bets 1 unit to recover. If it does not recover then it stops and waits for the next 3+capping trigger. It would take awhile to make 4-6 units playing this way without a bot so hopefully the bot will help.
I fell asleep last night when I got in so I didn't get to play.
6/18/09 +4 units. Total is = +20 units = $100.00
end of week one finished +20 units, it should have finished plus 28 units but I missed 2 days.
I am using a 3+capping/(1)2+capping combo. The (1)2+capping is used as a recovery. I am using a delayed up as you win progression that is somewhat capped. I have not worked too much on the progression but the basic structure for now looks a bit like this 1 1 2 2 (3) (4). You have to win 1 unit twice to get to the 2 unit bet. If you win the 2 unit bet twice then you either stay at the two unit bet or you can drop down to the one unit bet and restart going up the ladder again, it all depends on where I am at recovery wise. The 3 and 4 unit bets are to be avoided as much as possible. I have not made one yet.
If you lose at all during the 2 unit bets you drop down to the first 1 unit bet and you have to start going up the ladder again.
I had a 12 unit drawdown during my most recent shoe when I was attempting to win 4 units with the count method that I described. I decided to break away from the count method and us the capping combo with the delayed up as you win progression and it recovered the 12 units plus made an extra 4 units with no drawdown. It worked very well.
for now I'm not going to explain what the (1)2+capping bet looks like.
It took a while to answer but now I'm here. . !
That wasn't really my question but it's my fault that you misunderstood. I just couln't find the word Tie.
I play the online-casino in swedish language so sometimes it can be hard to translate. .
So my question is, if you got a Tie, what are you doing then?
P
P
P
B <Trigger, play P here.
/ <Tie
Are you still playing P here? Or are you waiting for next trigger? I've noticed that those Tie's makes it harder in some shoes. Sometimes maybe it's better to wait the nest trigger out? I don't know, just a thought. .
Then I'm a bit curious about your idea to solve the terrible two's and if it works well for you?
Again I'm very grateful that you share your ideas!
Fred
John,
Them 3000 shoes I got from you, do you know what casino they came from or more importantly are they from a continuous live table, like one after the other.
Cheers
D
Quote from: Diarmaid on July 19, 2009, 11:30:43 PM
John,
Them 3000 shoes I got from you, do you know what casino they came from or more importantly are they from a continuous live table, like one after the other.
Cheers
D
I have no idea where the shoes came from. I doubt that they are from a continuous live table, but they could be? Who knows.
Quote from: fatherfred on July 19, 2009, 12:40:53 PM
It took a while to answer but now I'm here. . !
That wasn't really my question but it's my fault that you misunderstood. I just couln't find the word Tie.
I play the online-casino in swedish language so sometimes it can be hard to translate. .
So my question is, if you got a Tie, what are you doing then?
P
P
P
B <Trigger, play P here.
/ <Tie
Are you still playing P here? Or are you waiting for next trigger? I've noticed that those Tie's makes it harder in some shoes. Sometimes maybe it's better to wait the nest trigger out? I don't know, just a thought. .
Then I'm a bit curious about your idea to solve the terrible two's and if it works well for you?
Again I'm very grateful that you share your ideas!
Fred
I always just pretend the tie never happened. But I have found that I usually lose the capping bet after a tie or a series of ties. So sometimes maybe it would make sense to wait for the next trigger. But I personally like to take my chances and just play even if the tie shoes up. If you feel uneasy about it then go with your gut and wait it out.
I still have no idea about the terrible two's. Maybe it would make sense to just bet the terrible twos? So you use the count progression and when you lose to the terrible twos you begin to bet the terrible 2's just as you would do with the chops. So you still keep the count but instead of betting based on what the count tells you to bet, you bet the terrible twos. That is the only thing that I can think of as of right now. I still haven't put my thought into it yet.
You said you had a (1)2+capping combo bet that worked well. I thought this combo helped to recover from the twos? About the progression, have you tested the 6-point divisor plan? If you follow it like you should it works pretty well with the 3+capping method. But without 0,5$ markers it can be hard. .
Quote from: fatherfred on July 20, 2009, 05:43:30 AM
You said you had a (1)2+capping combo bet that worked well. I thought this combo helped to recover from the twos? About the progression, have you tested the 6-point divisor plan? If you follow it like you should it works pretty well with the 3+capping method. But without 0,5$ markers it can be hard. .
yes it worked well for a short time then failed in testing so I stopped using it. I have tried the divisor but it didn't work so well.
Quote from: John1234 on July 20, 2009, 06:21:49 PM
yes it worked well for a short time then failed in testing so I stopped using it. I have tried the divisor but it didn't work so well.
Ok I need to catch up here been offline for over two weeks
John can you bring me up to speed on what you are using or testing and did the 2 cap fail thanks in advance
Rodney
Quote from: Natural9 on July 21, 2009, 06:25:09 AM
Ok I need to catch up here been offline for over two weeks
John can you bring me up to speed on what you are using or testing and did the 2 cap fail thanks in advance
Rodney
It's nice to have you back.
Here is what is going on:
2+capping: The 2+capping would lose too many bets in a row. The drawdowns would get too large. I am not a big fan of progressions so it really bothers me when I have to go deep into the progression to recover. So for now I have given up on the 2+capping idea. It became difficult to balance the terrible twos with terrible two chops (whatever you call it).
3+capping: I returned to the 3+capping idea after coming up with an idea while testing the 2+capping idea. The 3+capping tweak involves using a count which dictates what to bet AND how many units to bet. I posted all about this idea in the thread. I tested on only 50 shoes and had great results. However it didn't do so great live, I kept losing with it. It does not do so great with the terrible twos or real long streaks of chops.
Most recent Idea: About 2 weeks ago I had an idea for a system that is based on using the previous shuffle to win. I finally started to play with the system and it is doing great. I like the system more than 3+capping because you can bet basically when you want to bet and you flat bet as much as possible. when you lose you use a slight positive progression that does not go higher than 3 units. I have described this method on the thread about using the shuffle to win. The only problem is that I have not been able to test it because all of the results need to be from the same table from continuous shoes. But I will be getting data like this soon.
Also, a bot is being made to play the 3+capping method live for me. The bot will only be flat betting 1 unit. On a win it stops. When it losses the capping bet it bets again one more time hoping to recover, and if it losses that bet then it stops and waits for the next capping bet.
So for right now I am focusing on using the shuffle to win. Some of my ideas about the system go a bit deeper than what I posted on that thread, but for now that is how I am playing. The bot that is playing the 3+capping method will capture data from continuous shoes for me to test, so I will run the bot in play mode a lot.
And if you haven't noticed I have been playing on Bet Phoenix. That is the only site as of now that accepts USA. I made 20 units using the capping method with the count then had 10 unit drawdown. Then I recovered with the shuffle system which I am going to continue playing with and testing.
Since the forum has been down I have no longer been using the 3+capping method. I have been working on a system that uses the previous shuffle to win and it has done far better. It is mostly flat betting with a slight progression. The average drawdown is only about 1-3 units and I have not lost with it yet. I wrote about the original version over on another forum but there has been two major adjustments that I did not record since then. I am not going to write it now because I need to do more testing and I do not have time to do testing.
Quote from: John1234 on August 11, 2009, 11:16:40 AM
Since the forum has been down I have no longer been using the 3+capping method. I have been working on a system that uses the previous shuffle to win and it has done far better. It is mostly flat betting with a slight progression. The average drawdown is only about 1-3 units and I have not lost with it yet. I wrote about the original version over on another forum but there has been two major adjustments that I did not record since then. I am not going to write it now because I need to do more testing and I do not have time to do testing.
Is difficult to test if you dont know where the shoes have come from tho maybe not matter to much because a shoe is a shoe is a shoe
Did the 3+ capping fail
Quote from: Natural9 on August 11, 2009, 04:55:29 PM
Did the 3+ capping fail
No idea, I found something better and moved on. I never really did a good test with it. My problem with the method is that it needs a progression to win long term. It will not win long term flat betting. I got tired of seeing large drawdowns and looking over every progression in the book. I guess that I have changed over the last few months. At first I didn't mind large drawdowns but now I do. My new system fits my playing style. And there are many areas that I would like to explore based off the new system.
Quote from: John1234 on August 11, 2009, 08:06:38 PM
No idea, I found something better and moved on. I never really did a good test with it. My problem with the method is that it needs a progression to win long term. It will not win long term flat betting. I got tired of seeing large drawdowns and looking over every progression in the book. I guess that I have changed over the last few months. At first I didn't mind large drawdowns but now I do. My new system fits my playing style. And there are many areas that I would like to explore based off the new system.
When I did my limited testing with it it seemed to win 90 odd percent flat betting so i dont know if it is a loser long term
Quote from: Natural9 on August 14, 2009, 03:55:19 AM
When I did my limited testing with it it seemed to win 90 odd percent flat betting so I dont know if it is a loser long term
I actually have a bot that plays it flat betting. I have not used the bot for real money and I don't know if I am going to. I ran it a little bit and it is up a few units in play money. I'll try to run it while I sleep at night in play mode to see how it does. Everytime I go to run it while I am not at my computer, my computer shuts down. So hopefully I'll get all of my settings on my computer sorted out soon.
After doing some thinking I think that I may have a way to improve the 3+capping method.
Right now I either play the 3+capping method without the progression or I play my new system (using the opposite shoe). I have mainly been focusing on the opposite shoe system because it has been more successful and much safer.
Last night as I was playing I realized that I can combine the two systems and make a 3+capping opposite shoe hybrid. I am not going to go into details on what the system will look like yet. I still have to gather some more thoughts on this and begin testing. I am going to continue playing the opposite shoe system live (this will also allow me to gather shoes for testing). Whenever I have time I will work on the 3+capping hybrid. Right now my idea is only an idea but I think it could possibly be very successful. I guess that time will tell.
I'll explore this idea and elaborate more when I get free time. It will probably be a somewhat long process because I am back at college. If anybody is interested in helping then let me know. Many of you are much better at this then me.
Hi John,
i'm thinking that you should stick with the opposite shoe method because you say it is doing so well till now.
i think you said you have won more than 150 units till now which is great.
What bankroll you think would be appropriate and what are the worse drawdowns you have experienced?
Regards,
Sundowner.
Quote from: Sundowner on August 26, 2009, 09:09:03 PM
Hi John,
I'm thinking that you should stick with the opposite shoe method because you say it is doing so well till now.
I think you said you have won more than 150 units till now which is great.
What bankroll you think would be appropriate and what are the worse drawdowns you have experienced?
Regards,
Sundowner.
Thanks for the advice. I am sticking with the opposite shoe system for now but I am going to begin thinking about this idea.
I am not sure what a good bankroll would be. When I won the 150 units I started with a bankroll of 60 units. The method involves a slight progression so a large bankroll should not be needed. However, I always like to have a little more to be safe. I would say that a bankroll between 40 to 100 units would be good enough.
My largest drawdown has been -3 or -4 units.