VLS Roulette Forum

Cards and Other Gambling => Cards and Other Gambling => Baccarat => Topic started by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 03:33:42 AM

Title: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 03:33:42 AM
I have a method of play that has been successful. I would imagine that somebody out there has thought of this way of playing and probably failed with it. But I seem to be having success and I think that the success lies within the rules that I follow.

In the next 1-2 days I am going to post a method of play that has been working for me. I had a plan to wait 2 months before going to a casino but I had to go to sign my sister into one of my comp rooms, so I broke down and played some baccarat. I made about $1070.00. I do not have time to post it now because it is very late and I have to wake up early tomorrow morning. I figured that I would start to set the post up now.

My original plan was to do a lot of testing and post it in July if it held up. But I have a few problems. My first problem is that I ran out of live results and many of the results that I was getting off of the internet seemed odd. As a result of running out of live tests I began testing live on Dublin Bet which is very time consuming. I am starting my summer job soon so I do not have enough time to test it.

I do all of my testing by hand in a notebook. Tomorrow night, or I guess tonight since it is 2:15am I am going to explain my method of play and rewrite a few live tests and post them. I will show how I play and how it has been successful for me. *The most important thing that you must realize is that even though I have done a lot of testing, I have not done enough. I have not played around with the method of play enough. There are a few holes that I need to fix and maybe some of you will have good ideas and better ideas than me. I am not the most creative person when it comes to gambling so it is always great to hear    what other people have to say. I will explain the aspect of play that I want to reevaluate in more depth tomorrow.

Here is a preview of the method of play that I am using.

My base bet is always $20.

The first key component is being realistic about your goals:
I go into each session with the mentality that I have to be realistic about my goals. You must realize that this method is not going to get you rich fast. Being realistic leaves you less vulnerable to the casino. When you make a certain profit you must stop. When you lose a certain amount you must stop and reevaluate. Do not go into the game hoping to kill the casino because no method of play will ever hold up 100% of the time (unless someone out there knows something that I do not know).

The next key component is money management which is probably the most important aspect.

This is what I am still working on with this method of play. I am not sure if I like the progression. My goal is to not get too deep into the progression..I want to avoid being wiped out at all cost. This means that sometimes you may have to stop and just wait it out then get back at it. Next time I play this method I am going to sit down with about $1,200.00 maybe $1,400. But this is one aspect of the method that I am going to put a lot of focus on.

My goal is to make about 5.5-6 units each shoe. So if I am betting at the base unit of $20 then I should make around 110 to 120. In testing I have consistently produced this goal. I did have one odd session where I only finished plus one unit but I don't think I played the shoe right. I have to go back and look at the shoe again.  Many times I reached this goal a little more than half-way through the shoe, but I stopped playing. As soon as I reach my goal of 5.5-6 units which would be $110 to $120 I stop. I do not care how great the session has been. I stop to limit my exposure to the casino because I know that if I am not careful then the casino will eat my winnings and my bankroll.

I still have yet to figure out a good stop-loss limit, whatever you call that. I have not run into the problem of losing that often but I know that it is bound to happen soon so I will figure that out within the next few days.

The next key component to my method is how often I bet.

I do not constantly bet. Yet again the goal is to decrease the exposure to the casino. So I bet when the time is right.



Here is one more important fact to note:
 
When I post the method that I play, I sometimes make a bet that is different from what I am supposed to do. That is because I see an opportunity within the play and I usually end up being correct. I will try my best to describe the what I did if I happen to post a shoe where I made a sudden change the style of betting.



When I play I play for 5 sessions. The day that I made over $1000.00 I played for 8 sessions and I did not follow my rules exactly like I should have. That took a long time to do and I will probably never do that again. So my goal is to walk away with between $400-$500 dollars after 5 shoes (sessions).

This is a very simple way to play and so far I have not had many large drawdowns. For not putting much through into the progression, I think that the progression has been holding up pretty well.
Also...someone may have come up with a style of play like this. And it probably didn't work. If anybody out there knows of a system that is exactly like this then please provide your input on how to make it successful.


Sorry if I do not make sense at times, I am half asleep...I just wanted to get started. I am also sorry for not explaining much about how I play.
I will explain the method soon. I will also post one of my best shoes, one of my hardest shoes, and a few more examples. I will also post the progression and I will restate the rules that I follow for this type of play.


-John
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 04, 2009, 03:57:50 AM
Look under bac resultws i have posted 50 shoes for you and others who might want to test something tho 50 is still a small sample
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 05:43:08 PM
Look under bac resultws I have posted 50 shoes for you and others who might want to test something tho 50 is still a small sample

Thank you very much. Every shoe helps
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 06:42:04 PM
I will be posting my method soon, but I want to present an idea first.

This idea deals with perfection:

My method of play is not flawless. Even though I have yet to lose with it, I know that it will lose at some point. However, When it loses I need to make sure that I use enough discipline to stop and accept the loss and go back at it again. But where do I go from there? What happens when I lose more than one time. When happens if I suffer multiple losses in a row? Do I stop and look for something better? Do I continue to seek perfection? OR do I hang on to what I am comfortable with and try to improve the system. I have noticed that so many people seek perfection. They have a system that produces a consistent profit and then all of the sudden the system crashes. This results in the person moving on in search of something better. But my question is, if you have something that you are comfortable playing and it produces a consistent profit most of the time, then why ditch the system? Rather then completely leaving the system behind maybe it is a better choice to improve it.

We have to face reality and realize that we are gambling. We we sit at a table we are taking a chance. With all of life comes chance. You take a chance walking down the street...You even take a chance mopping your floor. On the radio today I heard some lady saying that her finger came off while mopping!! There could possibly be a grail out there for baccarat and roulette, I am not going to make an argument against that or for it. Yet what I do know is that I will never be capable of producing a grail. So what I have come to realize is that if we always seek perfection then we may never get anywhere. We only stress ourselves out more. If we ever do find a perfect system then that is great but life is short, so how long will you really get to enjoy it? You can wake up one morning feeling great and drop dead the next morning. It happens all of the time. Is the search for perfection really worth the stress? In my opinion I would much rather seek improvement than deal with the stress of perfection in the world of gambling.

Here is an example.

I like to exercise. That is what I am most passionate about. I have been lifting seriously for about 3 years. I go into the gym and see people everyday who are looking to get stronger, the hard way just like me. Then I see the occasional person who is so big that you feel sick looking at them. This person has taken the easy way out by taking steroids...they even admit to it. I have come across many people like this.  So what is different between me and the person who takes steroids? Well I am much smaller and they could obviously crush me in a second. Maybe they can make some money by getting in magazines and so on. But here is another difference...While they seek perfection I seek improvement. They stress themselves out so much that they go to such  extremes and use steroids. I take the path of making small gains with no stress.
So how does this pay off? Well I am happy. The person on steroids happiness is only an illusion that is injected through a needle. Better yet, I am in great health, the steroid perfection maniac  may not be in the best health. There are so many bad side effects that come out of steroids, if you do not believe me then just watch a documentary.

I would much rather be in good health and see results over time, rather then jeopardizing my life and being a maniac. I think the same is true with gambling. While seeking perfection is good to a point, I think it can easily be be abused. Just like the guy who goes on steriods and says that he will only use the steroids for a short period. Next thing you know the manic is hooked....


So when I present the method that I use, keep in mind that I am not looking to develop a grail. I am not looking to have a perfect system. I am looking for improvement. I do not care if the improvement lasts for 1 day or 50 years. What I do care is that I learn something, that the method of play becomes stronger, and that I do not become an obsessive maniac.

Happiness does not come from perfection because when things seem perfect they will crumble. That is how the universe works. Happiness comes from being comfortable with what you have and seeking out opportunity to improve what you have through Less stressful avenues.

I always seem to have success in what I do. This is because I am determined and I do not stress myself to reach perfection. I always seem to improve but I improve within realistic boundaries. I have seen people live what they consider a perfect life and drop dead (not so perfect). Life can be interrupted by a tradgy that changes everything.  I know this because it happened to my aunt. I got very close to her before she died and she taught me so much about life. What she taught me has carried over not only into everything that I do but also my gambling.

I just presented my view on things and I feel as though I need to share this so you understand the way I think before I share my method of play.

I hope this all made sense, it is hard for me to express what I am thinking through writing.


I will be posting the method that I use sometime before tomorrow morning.

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Trung on June 04, 2009, 11:18:35 PM
Thanks John, good post :thumbsup:
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 11:39:06 PM
Thanks John, good post :thumbsup:

haha thanks
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 11:39:37 PM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 04, 2009, 11:44:07 PM
Looking forward to it - should be a good read.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 04, 2009, 11:59:29 PM
Looking forward to it - should be a good read.

haha it is probably nothing new. I think i just built some suspense for something original.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 12:00:16 AM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 01:16:58 AM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 01:53:49 AM
I have three live testing shoes. The first shoe is a basic shoe from Dublin Bet. There are three pages. I as having trouble uploading so I used image shark. I hope it works. I will post the Easiest shoe that i had after I get done uploading the three pages of the the basic shoe. Then I will post the hardest shoe that i have faced yet.

(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/5544/basicshoefirstpage.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoefirstpage.jpg)
(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/4317/basicshoepagetwo.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoepagetwo.jpg)
(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/8991/basicshoepagethree.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=basicshoepagethree.jpg)
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 02:04:50 AM
Here is one of the easiest shoes that I came across while testing. This is a live shoe. I was able to make my 6 units long before the end of the shoe. I followed my rules and stopped playing. There should be two pages.

(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/2006/easyshoeone.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=easyshoeone.jpg)
(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/5612/easyshoepagetwo.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=easyshoepagetwo.jpg)
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 02:18:09 AM
Here is the hardest shoe that I came played during testing. it comes from a random number generator from Dublin Bet. I was still able to finish with my 6 units. There should be 3 pages.
 Next post will be about problems that I have with the style I of play.

(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3479/hardshoepageone.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepageone.jpg)

(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3555/hardshoepagetwo.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepagetwo.jpg)


(http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/9004/hardshoepagethree.th.jpg) (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hardshoepagethree.jpg)
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 05, 2009, 02:33:31 AM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Nathan Detroit on June 05, 2009, 04:16:17 AM
John1234,



Just  for  information. NOT an endorsement   . 

The Guetting progression.

http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics03.html

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 06, 2009, 07:49:21 PM
Looks to be going well

do another test play to the end ofthe shoe my theory if it wins it wins doesnt matter whether play to end of shoe or not

Regards Rodney
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 07, 2009, 03:59:35 AM
Hi John,

As you said it's probably not a new method as far as the bet selection goes but it's new to me and it looks pretty good.

To limit losses you could stop betting after four losses then wait for another trigger to bet? And also you could set a stop loss of around 10-20 units. The less shoes-played-to-recover the better in my opinion.
Also for progressions, I sometimes like to use an aggressive d'alembert, up one unit as you lose and never back down. You can also use this as more of a recovery method and lower the unit value if/when it recovers if you like to play it safer.

Just went over about 30 shoes before and the worst it did was -3 and -4 on a couple of shoes. Made +6 units most shoes, the ones that didn't, didn't really have enough time as they were mini-bac shoes(40-50 hands)
Cheers
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: GARNabby on June 07, 2009, 03:30:09 PM
John1234,

You need the trigger to avoid the four losses to begin with.  Then you'll have it, period.

Interesting post.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 07, 2009, 04:19:22 PM
I finished all of the shoes that Natural 9 posted late last night. I just had to calculate the profits and now I will post the shoes.

Profit From Shoes 31-40: $900 I had one losing Shoe which was -6 units. I lost at the very end of the shoe.

Profit After 40 Shoes = $4,240

Total from shoes 41-50=  $1170

Total profit for 50 shoes=  $5,410.00




I only had one shoe out of the 50 where I did not profit. That shoe came somewhere between shoes 31-40. That was -6unit loss. But the results seem good. My base bets were 20 dollars and sometimes 30. So if you are betting 100 dollar base units then you will make a lot more obviously.


I played all of the shoes the way that I presented, to a point. Not every shoe is the same so it is hard to always play the exact same way for every single shoe.


Later I am going to look into ways to improve the method.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Trung on June 08, 2009, 12:52:40 AM
I start thinking about baccarat, John.  ;) Whats a post!!! Thank you very much for your hard work.  Keep it up and happy winnings!
Best Regard,
Trung
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: GARNabby on June 08, 2009, 06:38:16 PM
John1234,

I mean for you to invert your system (picks) just before the losses come.

In my experience, and theorizing, wins and losses slowly average out after one quickly pulls ahead of the other. So the questions become, when are the wins/losses coming; and to which extent. I think you need to develop a now-ish (improvised) form of cause and effect.  These outcomes all occur in the now, randomly, but never completely independently of the past and future. (Because randomness is not perfectly its own entity, and certainly not in our even-less perfect realm.)

I'm currently beginning working on this problem, myself.  By looking at some underlying levels of surge in the ever-changing streams of P-B outcomes. Specifically at how also the longer patterns are evolving, alongside the shorter. (You'll likely need to look up the physics definition of 'surge' if you want to pursue that.)

But the biggest advantage to having an inversion system-control variable, or trigger/stopper, is something like as no shoe will never come out, eg, all B's, nor will any mechanically-fixed system ever come out all W's:  Playing banker each and every game wins on average very-slightly more than half but mixing up the P's and B's at least allows for the possibility of more-fully matching those to the usual outcomes, by design or even luck.  Which indirectly implies that given any fixed patterning system is going to Win half, and Lose half, invert it half the time to create the possibility of Winning every game with the "same" methodology all along. (Don't worry if this extension doesn't make any sense... right now I'm not sure it should, or would then even be of value.)

Not to "steal your thunder" john1234, may I invite you or anyone here with some history of posting to register at a new free site I have started for new systems, and their further development. (Simply because I prefer to post my "nonsense" in a more-controlled setting.)

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: GARNabby on June 08, 2009, 08:39:54 PM
John1234,

Thanks for your interest.

I forgot to say that i too hope anyone interested in any board continues to post there. It's important that each board develop a style of its own with its own talent. There's nothing in it for any of us to compete with the others here. (Let's just beat the casinos.)

But if and when the final break-through comes, it would better serve us to try to co-ordinate ourselves a little more discretely.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 09, 2009, 12:46:47 AM
I tested some more shoes playing with my bet selection using Marven's 5 Level Staking Plan as described in a few posts above.

Everything is still going great.
-I have been making my profit faster
-There is less of a drawdown when I enter a choppy period.
-The bets have not been as high. The largest bet that I have made in all of my testing so far has been 3 units.
-I have not had one losing shoe yet. And every shoe I make between 5.5 units to 6.5 units.

I am no longer going to post testing results. It seems kind of pointless to do that now. I will just keep them saved on my computer.

All of my posts from now on will be updates, if anybody is reading and interested.

Awesome stuff mate keep it up how many shoes do you think we should test

Regards Rodney
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 09, 2009, 01:27:32 AM
John I have another suggestion dont know if it would improve things or not

If you get to your desired stop  win in a particular shoes say within 30 -40 hands play it till you get like 2 or three losses in a row it may heklp etch out a few more units  The reason i say it is the trend can be  your friend

I asked a friend of mine if he has a good betting strategy that doesnt lose too much in a row(was thinknig using Lankys divisor strategy on it )he said he had a good one but it has lost 14 times in a  row then won then lost  another 10 times this can happen with EC bets

Also with your staking plan you need to test some of  the good shoes out as well because sometimes new staking plans can affect the good shoes to the detriment as well

I going to test this baby out for quite a number of shoes like to see how it performs under real pressure and if it has a failure point to me 50 shoes are not enough to know whether it is a long term winner it looks like dont get me wrong but i have had system before the perform well short term untill that session from hell happens

anyhow regards mate

Rodney
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: hlkhoo on June 09, 2009, 07:41:01 AM
Hi John,
Firstly, I wanna thank you for sharing this wonderful system.
After reading your posts, I tried this on few of the live
shoes I'd recorded in the past and there's one particular shoe
I think it could be the nemesis of your method. I'm not sure
and I could be wrong. Can you show us here how would you
play this shoe? thanks - hlkhoo

P
P
B
P
P
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
P
P
P
B
P
P
P
P


Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: hlkhoo on June 09, 2009, 09:39:50 PM
Hi John,
Thanks for playing the shoe and everything looks great up to this point.
Just a quick question. In your reply, you recorded the first 4 losses in a row (LLLL)
and based on my observation, shouldn't this be 3 losses and 1 win (LLLW)?
Let me elaborate more.

Your Reply:-
P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110 By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.

My observation:-

P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLL W Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110 By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.

At LLL we bet P and the next outcome is P, therefore it should read as LLLW?
If my assumption is correct, then we will never bet the chops since we don't have 4 losses in a row.
If that was the case, do you still come out ahead in this shoe ? Can you show us how you play?

Thanks
hlkhoo
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: hlkhoo on June 10, 2009, 05:48:23 AM
Hi John,
Thank you for such a detail explanation. I'm following every single bit of it except for this section:-

B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.   
B L Bet 20 B -70  1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total -->hlkhoo For the next result, you are betting P. We got it right. But it was recorded as a lost i.e. LLL. Shouldn't it be LLW
P LLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110, 3 staking bets lost. Now 5 total, bet chops.
B LLLW Bet 20 P -90
P LLLWW Bet 40 B -70
B (L)LLWWW Bet 60 P -30
P W +30 Stop betting goal of +0.5-1+ made.

I know it's kinda hard to visualize everything in just plain writing but just wanna you to know I do appreciate your time and patience in helping us.
Thanks
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 10, 2009, 08:28:50 PM
To have a successful method of play, I believe that certain elements are needed. I have some elements, and others I am still in search of.

1.) Self-Discipline- This component lies within the win goal and paying attention to bet sizes in relation to the win goal. Sometimes you do not want to try to overdo it. Also, I have found that whenever I can't walk away, I lose all of my profit, + some. Also you need discipline to sit there and wait for capping mode.

2.) Flexibility- In my last post I wrote something about how I feel as though a 100% mechanical system will not always be successful. That is why it is important to have a flexible way of betting and recovering.

-I think that I sort of have this component with the different modes of play. But it wouldn't hurt to strengthen this component.

3.) Bankroll- for obvious reasons.

4.) Saftey- This is a component that I was struggling to achieve at the beginning of the thread. Originally I only had the win limit per shoe, which goes hand in hand with self-dicipline. But I was missing the safety of  money management. I think that Marven's Staking Plan has added a great deal of safety to the method because the bets are non-explosive.
First it makes sense to give less money to the casino when you are losing. This is why I do not want a negative progression. Marven't staking plan allows you to keep the money for when you really need it. With the last progression I would sometimes lose as much as $320 when recovering.
Second- By paying attention to your bet sizes in relation to your win goal, even more safety is achieved. For instance when you should be betting 80dollars but you only need 40 dollars to achieve your recovery win goal then I prefer to bet 40 because it helps to reduce the explosiveness of the betting to a greater degree.  I never liked Up as you win progressions until I found Marven's staking plan.


5.) Bet Selection: I like the bet selection of the capping method followed by the second bet to recover. I also like the bet selection of betting the steaks. However I want to focus on the bet selection when a choppy period presents itself within the recovery mode in the shoe. Recovery Bet Selection still needs some work.

So I have most of the components that I feel are important. There could possibly be a few that I am missing but these are a few off the top of my head. So what I need to focus on most include (recovery bet selection) and (flexibility).

your nemisis pattern is identified as chops  maybe play after this scenario BPB or PBP things is the more you switch the less profitable it could become

 There can be some quite choppy shoes out there and the problem with switching as I have found in other methods I have tested is when you switch the shoes switches back in other words you get out of sync with the shoe I have noticed it in testing methods like the Baccarat code

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: hlkhoo on June 10, 2009, 10:07:52 PM
Hi John,
I think I fully understood your method of play by now. Based on the examples you shown here,
it seems the bet selection is constantly "moving" i.e. switching between chops & dominant and
within the chop or dominant itself, there's no fix and hard rules. For example, at a start, a streak
of 3 or more and then break by a single chop is consider as dominant and you would start betting
on the dominant side.
However, towards later of the shoe, when you failed the chop series, you would start betting
on the dominant side even though the streak is a short one i.e. 2 banker and this contradicts with
the 1st rule i.e. 3 or more = dominant.
With all respect, to me, I think you are "adjusting" the bet selection just to make the shoe comes out
ahead. It's easier to do this when we have the full shoe posted. However, in real play in the casino,
we really don't know when should we consider better a dominant side. Do we consider a streak of
2 dominant? Or streak more than 3 is dominant?
Furthermore, the betting rules for this shoe can never be applied to others shoes because each
shoe will have their own patterns & characteristic. Just my humble opinion.

Also, I think I've spotted some mistakes.

B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.   
B L Bet 20 B -70  1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total
P LLW Bet 20 P -70
B LLWL Bet 20 B -90  1st staking bet lost
P LLWLL Bet 20 P -110 2nd staking bet lost
B (L)LWLLL bet 20 B 3rd staking bet lost -130
P (LL)WLLLL Bet 20 B 4th staking bet lost. Betting chops -150

B (LLW)LLLLW Bet 20 B -130
B  (LLWL) LLLWW Bet 40 B -110 -->We lost 4 chops in a row. We start betting dominant even though it's a short streak?
P (LLWLL)LLWWL Bet 40 B -150 (since B is dominate bet for B now.* I will explain after the shoe)
B (LLWLLL) LWWLW Bet 60 B -110 -->We bet B here. The next hand is P. It should be a lost, but was recorded as a win
P (LLWLLLL) WWLWW bet 80 B -170
B (LLWLLLLW) WLWWW Bet 80 B -90
B (LLWLLLLWW) LWWWW drop bet to 40 B, -10
B Win +30 stop
P Bet 20 B
B Win +50
B
P
B
B

Anyway, thanks for your time and no worries. You may not have re-post the shoe again. I fully
understood how you played and I can tried it out here on my own. My best wishes goes to you
and family and happy winning.

Cheers
hlkhoo
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: StarStar on June 10, 2009, 11:34:30 PM
Hi.. John

Can i know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?

and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 11, 2009, 12:13:28 AM
Hi.. John

Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?

and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help
Hi.. John

Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?

and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help

Since I did not make up the staking plan, I honestly do not know what bankroll is good for Marven's Staking Plan.

For bets of 20 I would bring about 1,200 or 1,400 dollars. You probably do not need that much..But I like to be safe. When I do not have enough money I end up playing scared and if I play scared I am unsuccessful.

When I made over 1 thousand dollars with this method I only had a bankroll of $700 that I won in a poker tournament. I was playing a negative progression and everything worked out.


Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Trung on June 11, 2009, 12:18:07 AM
Hi.. John

Can I know how much much your bankroll for ur bet of 20?

and the marvin staking bankroll? im confuse .... pls help

1200$-1400$, he said in his post on 1st page, I think.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 11, 2009, 12:22:27 AM
1200$-1400$, he said in his post on 1st page, I think.


Well I don't think the BR has been established yet It will depend on drawdowns and progression it uses it not established if this is a winner yet looks ok to start but it still a minute amount of shoes that have been tested
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: StarStar on June 11, 2009, 12:26:27 AM
im confuse bout the chop mode

What is it actualy? what kind of sign is it?

sorry
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 11, 2009, 12:29:46 AM
im confuse bout the chop mode

What is it actualy? what kind of sign is it?

sorry


Don't worry about Chop mode and that bullshit mode stuff. I am about to make a post about some changes. I need to get back on track with this.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: StarStar on June 11, 2009, 12:33:05 AM
thanks john....  :thumbsup:

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 11, 2009, 12:45:03 AM
thanks john....  :thumbsup:



no problem. I am sorry for all of the confusion. I am going to go back and delete some posts to clear up some stuff that isn't important.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 11, 2009, 04:54:51 AM
Quote
any thoughts?

Doing a great job John. My thoughts are that back testing methods (empirical results) is pointless to a degree - it can give you a foundation on what can happen and what to expect, but I've head too many say the best way to really test something is experience. If you're not in the USA you could open an account at Dublinbet and play with play money. The original method seemed to be doing well for you, why change anything? - sign up an account and go hard mate. As for the bad shoes - you could set a stop loss based on the worst shoe you've seen perhaps or set it relative to the bank roll. 100 units isn't a big loss if you've made 900 - that's acceptable (realistic even) right? Unfortunately most mechanical systems don't go the distance but if your progression/staking plan is keeping you afloat - then like I said start playing with live shoes and go your hardest.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 12, 2009, 02:39:35 AM
Don't forget Dublinbet has six deck shoes
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 12, 2009, 07:50:29 PM
The ones I have played in have 8 decks I think thats be majority it is about 80 decisions or so
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 12, 2009, 07:51:14 PM
I believe standard baccarat is 8. Usually 75 hands per shoe give or take.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: StarStar on June 12, 2009, 10:55:11 PM
U may apply 6 point devisor by Lanky ... i think it is a good strategy to catch the loss... not too explosive
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 13, 2009, 12:26:58 AM
The ones I have played in have 8 decks I think thats be majority it is about 80 decisions or so

Ok thank you. I think that is the amount at AC.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 13, 2009, 12:27:56 AM
I believe standard baccarat is 8. Usually 75 hands per shoe give or take.

Thank you
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 14, 2009, 01:23:52 AM
Played a session last night - made $1000 using $50 units (not real money :( ) over 5 shoes with a target of about 5 units per shoe (I say "about" because of the 5% commission etc). One shoe provided almost no triggers. I suspect one of the keys to playing this method like any other is to not play too many shoes.
I used the method outlined in reply #9. Felt pretty comfortable playing too - the deepest I went into the progression was 2.5. If I had to go further I'm trying to decide whether to wait for another trigger after maybe 4 or 5 losses or do something else like cap the bets at 4.5. Time will tell. Going to keep testing/playing and see how we go long term.
Cheers

Roules (should change my name to Bacs  ::) )
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 14, 2009, 08:15:16 AM
Lol. No sooner after writing that post I played a session that didn't go as well. Things did recover but it's got me thinking about the progression, which has to be well structured to suit the bet selection (of course you say :) ). I like the idea of moving up a unit or half a unit at a time and using D'alemebrt, but I'm trying a different bet selection also. Don't mean to hijack your thread here by changing the goal posts but I think it will bring similar results.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: hermes on June 14, 2009, 06:09:27 PM
Guys try to use the Carsch progression it works good on ECs. 1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14-21-32. Easy to use: after 2 losses in row ad 1 unit, after 2 wins in row subtract 1 unit. Win/Loss no change.
You lose 2 first hands bet still 1 unit, lose another 2 hand bet 2 units, after this won 2 hands in row go 1 unit down. Holds lot of bad hands.
Cheers Hermes
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 15, 2009, 08:06:29 PM
You cant  add subjectivity for a mechanical system tho subjectivity is a good thing to have but thing is I could test the same shoe as you and come out with a differant result because of your or mine subjectivity but that wont prove if a method will work or not
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 15, 2009, 10:25:13 PM
I am going to test 50 shoes before I post any details on this idea for recovery. I know that 50 isn't a lot but there have been too many times where I have posted an idea and it failed after a few shoes of testing. So I need to get a little more to back the idea up.

I should have the 50 shoes done by the end of the week at the longest.

I believe that the method of play should work on choppy shoes because of the capping bets.
I also believe that it should work on streaky shoes because it has a streak recovery built in as well.
I also believe that the progression will be controlled because Marven's 5 level staking plan is non-explosive especially when used with solid bet selection.

I will give an update every 10 shoes.

I should hopefully be done the first 10 shoes within the next 1-2 hours.
I will post the stats soon.

Let me know when you have your idea down pat I and maybe others could eventually help in the testing and why did you go away from your original 3 cap I thought you were having some good results with it did you catch some bad shoes

All we needed to have is a controlled progression stop loss and BR requirements
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: rjeaton1 on June 16, 2009, 01:14:12 AM
I can honestly say I know absolutely nothing about the game of Baccarat.  However, it looks as though Baccarat is a game where you can make even money bets.  If that's true, and you guys are still looking for a decent progression I can suggest one (whether or not it will help, but I'm trying anyway, haha).

You can check it out here: http://vlsroulette.com/money-management/the-midas-touch/

I just recently suggested this to somebody in the roulette area, as they were looking for a decent progression that wasn't terribly scary for even money outside bets.  I have tried this progression with even money bets myself and have had great success with it (although nothing is foolproof). 

Hope it helps guys, and I hope I didn't disrupt anything.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: rjeaton1 on June 16, 2009, 01:15:45 AM
Hey there John, I just posted the post above, and then I noticed right above my post you mentioned that you deleted a bunch of your posts.  If you think what I just posted goes against what you were shooting for on this thread feel free to remove.

If you try it however, and have some success, go ahead and put it back up (if you want, haha).

Sorry again if I threw anything in this thread off kilter.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 16, 2009, 08:17:57 AM
Just did a test of 30 shoes using the 3 cap method, with a slight difference. I played each progression until a win and stopped, instead of playing until in profit. I tried 3 progressions:
Up half a unit on a loss and down half on a win
Up one unit on a loss and down one on a win 
Up one unit on a loss and keep it there(never back down). eg a LW sequence like LLWLWWWLW would translate to (units bet) 123344445
Aka the aggressive D'alembert

Using $10 units always, mini-bac tables (40+/- hands excluding ties), commission not taken out. After 30 shoes:
Using the half unit progression +$310
Normal progression  +$290
Aggressive progression -$70

The last 3 hands were shockers and shows how much damage can be done. This was based on playing the original prog in this thread only to 8 levels. The aggressive progression wins a lot more of course, the drawdown can be bad but generally isn't. Only four shoes came out negative and that was for all progressions. That the aggressive prog came out only -$70 is pretty good, the worst shoe it cost $1600 (160 units). You can imagine where it would of been without that one big loss though.

Actually - even a martingale prog came out +150 on these shoes. Limiting to only 3 or 4 bets could be key. It almost wins flat betting on these shoes (it would of if it weren't for commission!)
It hit on the following:
1st  65
2nd 37
3rd 14
4th 3
5th 5
6th 1
7th 0
8th 1
9th 1
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 16, 2009, 04:28:11 PM

I just had a quick look at the progression. It seems very interesting. I like how you try to win a set amount within 4 bets. I think that this can be used as a recovery to the capping bet then the streak bet, or maybe just the capping bet, because it seems to safely limit the amount of betting that you do. I have been trying to think of a progression that would limit the amount of bets that are needed to recover.

I have to go somewhere now so I do not have time to really think about it, but I am going to look more at this progression later tonight.

Thanks for sharing.

Would be much slower tho maybe you may not even get you win mark in a good shoe even
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 16, 2009, 05:17:12 PM
Quote
Was the worst shoe played with the aggressive progression or the half unit progression?
Tested all shoes with all 3 progressions. It's not really worth it as you can see though it averages out to barely one unit per shoe. I just ran that test to see how things would go.
N9 is right too it's a very slow way to go. It might be worth testing, you need a lot of time and patience to use it. I think Lanky says you only need a 40something% win rate for it to win but. I will look at Hermes prog as well. I really like this bet selection
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 16, 2009, 06:46:11 PM
I think the 6 point divisor would go good  but you have to remember the 6 point divisor is more of a grind MM strategy so even with that your win per shoe may not even get to 6 but would be safe and maybe average 3 or 4

The problem if it is one which really it isnt is that with the Capping method you don't bet on every decision in the shoe
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 16, 2009, 07:08:57 PM
Yes you could do it any divisor you wanted and still use the safety brake but dont forget you are after a good MM a good bet selection and you need an MM to carry you thru the bad streaks it isnt uncommon for EC bets to go 12.13.14 times or more losses and the win and streak again

Maybe Try twice  with a 1.2 type of bet then stop and wait for next cap to bet again maybe you need bet it 3 timeslike BBBpB then bet here three times for B that way you get the chop because this scenario of BBBPBPB then play the chop  there are so many scenarioS and this is the reason why  this game is hard to win against
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 17, 2009, 01:15:15 AM
I did some testing using the divisor idea and it held up very well, although I need to add a definite system of safety nets. But for not having a great plan for safety nets it did great.

Even when the progression for the divisor begins to get high it still only needs to win 2-3 bets to recover most of the time. I think that 2-3 bets is reasonable. In my testing (without a good safety net plan) the highest bet I have made has been 2.5 units and that was once or twice in a handful of shoes.

I have also noticed that there are less bets being made which should mean less commission going to banker bets.

I have a basic idea of how I want to work the divisor recovery and I have some safety net ideas that I am going to work on tomorrow. The divisor method is showing a lot of potential. So I am going to end on a good note and work on it more tomorrow, maybe some more ideas will come in my sleep.

you are preaching to the converted as far as the
divisor plan goes for me 

You need thanks the Lankster for converting alot on here to the divisor method there are many ways of using it too you could bet normal to a certain loss then use the Divisor methods for recovery
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 17, 2009, 06:36:53 AM
Hey John,
You had it with your first idea I reckon, up half a unit at a time. I doubt you'll get more than 5 or 6 units out of a shoe using a mechanical system and backing the chops if they come? Still makes it mechanical. Cut the losses after 3 or 4 bets I say - anything more isn't common (from testing - and I said empirical results were worthless lol).

Is playing the way you do, ie continuing until in profit worthwhile over playing just 3 or 4 hands?

Grand martingale(3 step - 1,5,20) or similar makes a lot more profit if you were brave enough to use it, but it depends if you want to grind safely along small profits or go for a bigger prize :).
Wondering how this would go with roulette and craps......

I'm going to choose a progression to go with this bet selection (which I'm liking - thanks again for posting) and play when I can over the next week or two at Dublinbet. My balance is I think is about #2400 (play money). We'll see what happens  
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on June 17, 2009, 03:25:50 PM
Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.

I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.


Thanks
Diarmaid
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 17, 2009, 04:42:30 PM
Hey Diarmaid - long time no see. I think we're still trying to agree on that ourselves but I'm pretty much going off reply #9 on the first page.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 19, 2009, 05:05:12 PM
Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.

I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.


Thanks
Diarmaid

I posted a reply to your post but it vanished so I will post again.

As Roules stated we are still trying to agree on something. It is difficult to find a progression because you have to find a progression that is unique to the bet selection. And I keep coming up with ideas on how to improve the method, but most of my ideas fail. The only progression that has worked for me has been the riskier one that I posted with the original method.

There are a few rules that are important to the method.

1.) When you win 5.5 to 6 units stop and do not play anymore. 6 units seems to be the average you will win per shoe. I have found that if you try to go for 7 or 8 units then you will lose all the profit sometimes. However sometimes you can have a 10 unit shoe, but that is rare. When you win 6 units real quick it is very important to use the discipline and stop. I have seen it win quick then the shoe becomes choppy and it becomes impossible to bounce back.

2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 4 losses in a row or 4 out of 5, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet. This rule also depends on how risky you want to be. To be safer you could wait for 3 loses then stop and wait for the new trigger, this will mean that you will not climb the progression ladder fast.

3.) stop loss, I think we decided that it should be somewhere around 20 units? Something like that.

So basically you are looking for 3 or more of the same outcome to be capped by the opposite outcome. At that moment you bet the side that streaked. If you win then you are done. If you lose then you use the progression to recover, betting streaks.
So an example of a win
B
B
B
P bet B
B

An if you lose

P
P
P
P
B Bet P
B Bet B
B win

The progression that I use  is 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5 and so on, you are going up .5 each time you lose.

Here is the recovery aspect of the method.
When you win you go up until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 1.5 bet then you stop and you have recovered. Wait for the next trigger

When you lose the 1.5 bet you continue up the ladder. Upon hitting the 2 unit bet you have to work your way back down the ladder until you are .5 units or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 2 bet then you can either step down to 1.5 or jump down to 1. Your choice.

If you lose the 2 bet then you go to the 2.5 bet. At this point you have to win the 2.5 bet two times before you can work your way down the ladder, and the same goes for each bet after 2.5.

When you have won the 2.5 bet or any bet higher than 2.5 you work your way down, adjusting your bets to meet the recovery win goal and you own limits. For instance, sometimes you can jump a unit if you want to play safe or sometimes you can just go straight on down until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead.

Once you get .5 or 1 unit ahead the recovery is over, now matter how far down the ladder you still have to go. So if you get ahead at the 2 unit bet and you are .5 or 1 unit ahead then you stop and go back into capping mode.

Now if I have a few capping bets that streaked and only produced .5 units in a row then I will start my base bet at 1.5 units. Usually I do this if I get 3 wins of .5 units. Then once I get within the 6 unit range I will go back to 1 unit base.

There are at least 50 example shoes that I tested and posted on here. It did well in the 50 shoes and it did great when I played it live. But there will be times when it loses. The key is to keep loses to a min. That is why I am looking for a better progression.

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on June 19, 2009, 07:18:52 PM
You are testing Marvens 5 level plan, with your method?  So your not using the up and down 0.5 units?

So marvens plan kicks in if you lose that first bet after a 3+ cap?

Also do you just ignore the Ties,   is this a 3+cap     PPTPB  ???


Sorry for all the questions

Cheers
D
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on June 19, 2009, 07:32:37 PM
Also do you just ignore the Ties,   is this a 3+cap     PPTPB


or this


BBBBTP  (bet B now?)
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 19, 2009, 07:50:04 PM
Ignore ties like they never existed
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on June 19, 2009, 07:59:03 PM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on June 19, 2009, 08:04:37 PM
I am a little puzzled by this rule.   ???


2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 3 losses in a row or 3 out of 4, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet.




Wouldnt this mean you would never get to 2.5 units in the progression??   or am I missing something.


Cheers
D
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: GARNabby on June 21, 2009, 02:11:30 PM
Hi John1234,

When are you going to try your system for real?

I'm in the process of copying yours.  Will study it later.

Thanks.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: JavierTT on June 21, 2009, 06:08:19 PM
Great job, John. Its really better a positive progression. Greetings.

Javier.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 22, 2009, 03:06:00 AM
Which pattern is the method prone to now John maye put al lthe rules MM and BR requirement in pne post
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: roules on June 23, 2009, 02:20:19 AM
Hi John,

Finally came to conclusion huh? That's pretty complex at a first glance. How do you get a LW registry if you need it early on in the shoe? If you won the first two caps say, your registry would be WW, but you need five Ls or Ws to determine how much to bet next.

I played my first live shoe in a casino today - until now I'd only played online(live dealer of course). I had a ball too - made 22 units in one and a quarter shoes(mini bac) and very happy with myself :) It's amazing watching some people playing - no apparent bet selection or money management but they still keep reaching into their pockets for more $100 bills! Crazy stuff. I actually went there to play roulette and got rolled in about 12 spins. Stupid roulette, I'm gonna stick with the cards for now.

I went off tangent a bit and came up with my own system that I played today based on some good tests. Take the first three decisions and play against them for the rest of the shoe using a 1,3,7 progression. It works well but of course it loses every now and again.

And to clarify from before - on 'no commission' baccarat the general rule is they only pay half on a winning banker 6 bet. So if you bet $100 on banker and it won with a 6 you would only get $50.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 23, 2009, 03:03:49 AM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: JavierTT on June 23, 2009, 04:00:19 PM
Hello! Really a big and good job.  I want to make you a question.  Its about PP BB PP BB PP. . . . .  When you find a PPP     BB PP BB PP. . .  how do you play?


Regards. 

Javier.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: JavierTT on June 23, 2009, 04:27:44 PM
Yes.  I think when you find something like that PP BB PP BB, you are destroyed but only lost 1 chip with positive progression.  Do you think something about STOP when you find a PP BB PP. . . ? Perhaps it may be useful, dont you think?

Thank you for your fast answer.

Regards. 

Javier. 
Title: Thank you for sample. My first shoe.
Post by: JavierTT on June 23, 2009, 09:56:35 PM
Hello !!! Last night I did my first shoe in real and I think it was a really hard shoe.  Ill write it now.  How would you have played it? It is very interesting your answer for me.  Thank you again.  Greetings from Spain.

The infernal shoe:

B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
P
B
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
B

Javier.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Joker on June 24, 2009, 02:16:14 AM
isn't it funny about gambling?

if you play for REAL money.. somehow you lose.... like they are cheating on us...

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 24, 2009, 04:24:02 AM
yes been there done that seems like the gambling gods are playing with us at times
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 25, 2009, 09:39:08 PM
I agree with that too...and when you are losing the person next to you is winning but they have no idea what they are doing. One day I was playing roulette. I was sitting at the table playing the min bet and I was up about $200 which was 40 units. Thinking back to it, I should have walked away, but it took me so long to win that much that I wanted to stay and win more. My luck started going bad and this girl walked up and starts putting chips down on random numbers. Within 20 minutes she was cashing out with an extra $600 and I lost half of my winnings. The worst part was that she had no idea what she was doing.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: JavierTT on June 26, 2009, 08:17:51 PM
Hello again, John.  Thank you for your great job and for show me how to play the shoe.    :)  I have to say to you that you cant win every shoe you play.   It cant be a obsession.  Really only need to win more that you lose.  This is most important thing.   Its good to try to get a better system, but not to get a PERFECT system. 

Thank you again for all.  Greetings. 

Javier.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 27, 2009, 06:51:09 PM
So what do you think the rules should be now John because I wan t to help you test it
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 27, 2009, 08:41:53 PM
Natural 9-

I answered this post awhile ago now I am modifying it.

That is a good question...As of now, the rules are the same as the original method but with a stop loss. As far as testing goes, I am going to hold off on that for awhile. I think I found a new method which is a spin off the 3+capping method. The new method has proven to be much safer than the 3+capping method and very simple. I have details about it in the post below.

I really wanted to start some intense testing for the 3+capping method but I ended up stumbling upon something that i think is far better. If it holds up then I will defiantly have the details posted in a new thread within the next two weeks. At this point I would not be putting the 3+capping method off to the side unless I defiantly think I found something better. So If you want to test it then the rules are still the same but if you want to wait to see what I will hopefully be presenting within the next 2 weeks then it may    be a good idea to wait.
Sorry for jumping from idea to idea, I think all of my jumping around has finally come to an end and hopefully it has come to an end because this thread is like 12 pages of nothing haha.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on June 28, 2009, 08:02:13 AM
Good one John I will wait to youi come up with your new idea then go from there Is good you are tweaking things you never know what you might come up with and thanks for all the hard work and if you need anything help  give me a  PM or something

Regards to you mate
Rodney
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: dennisbelle on June 28, 2009, 12:23:24 PM
John,
   What was your largest drawdown so far with your new method?
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on June 28, 2009, 07:14:32 PM
Hello John1234,

I have the 3000 shoes you mentioned in your post above. I have tried to PM you the data a couple of times but failed. I just can't attach the file. Please let me know how to do it and I will send you immediately.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 28, 2009, 07:23:12 PM
Thanks for trying. Maybe my email will work? Try soccerball66@gmail.com

Thank you very much
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on June 28, 2009, 08:12:16 PM
Hello John1234,

I have PM the data to you, please check your mail.
Please let me know should you have any problem.
Best wishes and hope you will be successful in your baccarat system.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on June 28, 2009, 08:14:55 PM
Sniper--

Thank you very much for the shoes. I owe you
Title: 3+capping modified
Post by: John1234 on July 11, 2009, 05:33:49 PM
I have had my most productive day of testing so far.

When testing the 2+capping method I came across a tweak to the 3+capping method. I cannot stop jumping from one idea to the other.
anyway, I have tested it on 50 shoes so far and I am impressed with the results. I think that I have found a way to win more often then I lose with this method. I am now much more confident with the 3+capping method, well at least for as long as the method holds up in testing.

I have made the 6-10 unit win goal in most shoes out of the 50 that I have tested and it is a fairly easy tweak to play.

I have added a 10 unit stop loss for each shoe

I have come up with (or rediscovered) a positive/negative combo progression that does not allow you to bet more than 4 units. It is a very easy progression to understand.

I added a tweak to the method at around the 40th shoe so I am going to test for another 50 shoes before I post. If I continue to win more than I lose after 100 shoes then I will post about the tweak.

As I said before I am getting very confident with the tweak of the 3+capping method, but maybe someone can think of an even better tweak who knows.

Here are my results

Shoe 1: 10 units
Shoe 2: 7 units
Shoe 3: 9 units
Shoe 4: 6 units
Shoe 5: 6 units
Shoe 6: 7 units
Shoe 7: 6 units
Shoe 8: 6 units
Shoe 9: -2 units
Shoe 10: 6 units
Shoe 11: 6 units
Shoe 12: 6 units
Shoe 13: 6 units
Shoe 14: 7 units
Shoe 15: 10.5 units
Shoe 16: 6 units
Shoe 17: 4 units
Shoe 18: 9 units
Shoe 19: 6 units
Shoe 20: 9 units
Shoe 21: 6 units
Shoe 22: 3 units
Shoe 23: 9 units
Shoe 24: 8 units
Shoe 25: 6 units
Shoe 26: 7 units
Shoe 27: 7 units
Shoe 28: 10 units
Shoe 29: 7 units
Shoe 30: -10 units
Shoe 31: 10 units
Shoe 32: 6 units
Shoe 33: 10 units
Shoe 34: 4 units
Shoe 35: -10 units
Shoe 36: 10 units
Shoe 37: 6 units
Shoe 38: 8 units
Shoe 39: 7 units
shoe 40: -4 units
Shoe 41: 7 units
Shoe 42: 9 units
Shoe 43: 6 units
Shoe 44: 6 units
Shoe 45: 8 units
Shoe 46: 8 units
Shoe 47: 10 units
Shoe 48: 6 units
Shoe 49: -3 units
Shoe 50: 10 units

5 out of 50 shoes did not win

I Did did the math real fast so I may have added wrong but the method won ABOUT 295.5 units which is $5930.00 dollars at $20 base bets.
I will recalculate later.

Also, many of the shoes could have won more than 6 units but I stopped at 6 for a lot of shoes. It is also possible to get well over a 10 unit win.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on July 11, 2009, 08:19:22 PM
Hello John1234,

It's nice to hear that you are making positive breakthrough. Congratulation!! When the going gets tough, the toughs get going. You have the mindset of a successful person. Keep it up my friend.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 11, 2009, 08:37:33 PM
Hello John1234,

It's nice to hear that you are making positive breakthrough. Congratulation!! When the going gets tough, the toughs get going. You have the mindset of a successful person. Keep it up my friend.

Regards

sniper

Thank you very much for that compliment. I hope that my positive breakthrough continues through the next 50 shoes
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on July 11, 2009, 08:55:13 PM
Hello John1234,

The most important thing to take care is the drawdown. As long as you know how to keep your losses low, you have the chance to succeed. Do not look at the result of every single shoe. As long as you can make average of 5 to 6 units every 5 shoes consistently, I believe you have found your HG. To be a long term winner, you have to be very practical and consistent as far as BS and daily target is concern. I may be wrong, this is just my personal way of looking at things. Different people have different expectation. Whatever it is, the person who can take money home, irrespective of small or large amount is in a way the  ultimate WINNER.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 11, 2009, 09:14:01 PM
Hello John1234,

The most important thing to take care is the drawdown. As long as you know how to keep your losses low, you have the chance to succeed. Do not look at the result of every single shoe. As long as you can make average of 5 to 6 units every 5 shoes consistently, I believe you have found your HG. To be a long term winner, you have to be very practical and consistent as far as BS and daily target is concern. I may be wrong, this is just my personal way of looking at things. Different people have different expectation. Whatever it is, the person who can take money home, irrespective of small or large amount is in a way the  ultimate WINNER.

Regards

sniper


I agree with exactly what you said. I think that one of the most important factors to success is being practical. The hg, as far as I am concerned lies within us. There elements that go into the hg that many people overlook. the hg consists of more than bet selection and so on. Our values, objectives, traits, and how realistic we can be are the foundations to our own personal hg. I think that so many people focus too much on the mechanics and not so much the additional factors that go into success with gambling and with life.

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on July 11, 2009, 10:51:06 PM
Sniper, John

So so true both of you, I think controlling your emotions is also a key factor.

I personally think that money management is the most important factor when it comes to any sort of gambling.

Cheers
D
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Joker on July 12, 2009, 01:20:48 AM
I think money management is most difficult thing.. I always lose my control.. and if I play gambling often then I start thinking about gambling all the time and distruct my personal life also..

that's why i like sport betting.. i don't have to sit at table....

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 12, 2009, 02:56:57 AM
Sniper, John

So so true both of you, I think controlling your emotions is also a key factor.

I personally think that money management is the most important factor when it comes to any sort of gambling.

Cheers
D

Yes emotions are very important. I always have trouble controlling my emotions when I lose. i hate to lose but I guess that we have to accept that we are gambling and losing comes with gambling, so we have to accept losing as a reality. I always have my emotions in check when I play poker, but in any other type of gambling, I always have a tough time controlling my emotions.

I think money management is most difficult thing.. I always lose my control.. and if I play gambling often then I start thinking about gambling all the time and distruct my personal life also..

that's why I like sport betting.. I don't have to sit at table....



I also think about gambling all the time when I gamble. I think that is a bad thing haha. But I am the type of person that gets tired of something if I think about it too often. It happened to me with poker and roulette. I don't think it will happen with baccarat because I have finally found a balance between everything else in my life. It is important to find that perfect balance and to not let gambling take control of your life.

Also I always like to do things to work on my self-discipline. I have found that working on self-discipline is actually rewarding in life and I expect it to help in gambling. I set a goal after my last visit to the casino to not go until the first week of August. I have done this to work on my self-discipline. It has been very hard but so far I have made it this far. Emotions and self-control can be improved. My coaches in sports always preached about mental toughness, I think that the same goes for gambling.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 12, 2009, 12:25:39 PM
Well I cracked and finally played live. I did not make it to August 1st. However, I did not play at a casino. I put money onto my Bet Phoenix account. I am playing the 3+capping method with the tweak. I'm playing the minimum bet which is 5.00 and I think that the commission is only 3%. and the max bet is 100 but I don't plan to bet the max. The highest bet in my progression will be $15.00 (3 units). I also think that Bet Phoenix uses an 8 deck shoe.

I made 8 units before I stopped. I should have made about 11 units but I made a few mistakes because I am not used to betting on a computer. I had no drawdown for my session.

My goal is to make between 6-12 units per day.

I will post the tweak after I finish the next 50 shoes of testing. It is very hard for me to test because I am busy during the week but I will get around to finishing the shoes at some point.

Oh and I live in USA I originally wanted to wait until Frank's bill gets through, but if it does pass then who knows how long it will take to go into effect.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on July 12, 2009, 12:35:37 PM
Hello John1234,

Congratulation!!! Hope this is the beginning of more success to come.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 12, 2009, 01:15:50 PM
Hello John1234,

Congratulation!!! Hope this is the beginning of more success to come.

Regards

sniper

Thank you..so do I. And if I lose then I don't care because I am using a few hundred that I won off a free chip at some online casino. But hopefully I will keep my emotions in check and stay practical.
Title: 3+capping with tweak
Post by: John1234 on July 12, 2009, 07:26:01 PM
Right now I do not have the time to test 50 shoes so I will just post the tweak to the 3+capping method.

I spent awhile working on the 2+capping method but it would lose too much and I couldn't stand the large drawdowns. While testing the 2+capping method I found a way to improve the 3+capping method.

First, I will review the 3+capping bet selection. The bet selection is 3 or more of the same outcome capped by the opposite outcome. When the streak of 3 or more is capped you bet for the chop.

Example BBB (3 or more) P (capped by P now bet for B) B Win.

P
P
P
P
B Bet for P
P Win

Now I will talk about recovery bet selection and progression. This is what I am currently playing with on bet phoenix and this is what I have been testing.

The most important factor with this method is to be realistic. When you enter the recovery you may really have to grind it out and sometimes it can get frustraiting. It is important to keep your emtions in check and to not let your bets get too large.

I think that when you use a progression it is extremely important to control the progression. If you can control the progression and get it insync with the shoe then you will easily make a profit, however this is often a challenge.

The recovery bet selection and progression go hand in hand with eachother. I will describe the progression and then follow it up with some very iimportant rules:

The bet selection uses a count. The count is written as P v B. The count of the player is always on the same side and the same goes for the count of the banker.

-When you get a win the count goes up by 2 when you get a loss the count goes up by 1. So when Player wins you add 2 and since player won you add 1 to the banker. If banker wins next then you add 2 to the count of the banker and since player lost you add 1 to the count of the player.

Example

P 2v1
B 3v3
P 5v4
P 7v5
P 9v6
B 10v8
B 11v10

- You always start the count off at 2v0, or 0V2, whichever side won. The proceeding loss goes up by 2, then every bet after, the proceeding bet goes up by 1.


Example

B
B
B
B
B
P 3+capping trigger bet for B to come
P Loss Now the count is 2v0
P Win you are recovered. so stop and wait for next trigger

Example 2:
P
P
P
P
B 3+capping trigger bet for P to come next
B Loss, count is 0v2 now bet for B
P Loss count is now 2v3, this is the first loss following the last bet so it goes up by 2. Now you are still betting for B
B Win now count is 3v5, as you can see P is now going up by 1 when it losses bet for B to come again
P Now count is 5v6 B went up by 1 and P went up by 2 since it won, but you are still betting for B

The reason why I start the count off at 2v0 or 2v2 is because it creates the opportunity to quickly recoup all losses and make 1 unit profit. By the end of each recovery you should make 1 unit profit, that is the goal except in certain circumstances which I'll explain later.

Always restart the count at the end of the recovery

-here is the progression aspect of the count.

To decide how much to bet you take the difference of the two counts. So if your count is 2v4 then you are betting 2 units for B to come next. If the count is 3v7 then you are betting 4 units for B to come next. So the progression ends up working as a positive progression because when you win you are increasing your unit bet by 1 unit.

never bet more 5 units. If you have a count of 4v9 then bet 4 units instead of 5. As I said before, you do not want the progression to get out of control. Also, it is important to adjust your bets based on how much you want to win and your goals. For example if you need to make a 4 unit bet but you want to be safe then make a 3 unit bet. Success of this method depends a lot on how safe you are.

When the count is even
When you get an even count bet the opposite side. so if the count is 3v3 then you bet opposite of the current outcome.

The count does great in streaks and it protects the bankroll during zigzags. But I find it best to take advantage of the zigzigas.

ZigZag Mode

If you get a sequences like this BBBPPBPBPB then begin to bet the zigzags at the second zig zag. So the first zig zag was PBP. The second zigzag was BPB. Now go into ZigZag Mode.

During this mode you are still keeping count. You are still betting based on the difference of the two counts. However you are not betting based off the higher count, you are betting hoping for the zigzag to continue. When the zigzag is broken go back into full count mode.  This has been very effective for me.

Streak Mode: Idea is a work in progress

I play streaks but only after I have made at least 7 units. When In streak mode I flat bet and I wait until I get 3 of the same outcome. This is what has resulted in many 10 unit shoes by the 50th decision. I only do this in a streaky shoe.

Stop Loss and Safety nets

This aspect of the system really depends on your goals, size of bankroll and so on. I have a stop loss of 10 units.

For base bets higher than $15.00 I will follow the stop loss of 10 units
For a base bet of $5.00 my stop loss increases to 20 units because I have a larger bankroll.

There is a 5-6 unit safety net. If at anytime you lose a total of 5-6 units then stop playing the recovery and wait for the next capping trigger. Then renter the recovery.

If i am playing with $5 base bets then I don't really follow this rule but with higher base bets I do. I find that it recovers much quicker if you sometimes just stop and wait for the next capping bet then continue the recovery where you left off.

This rule also depends on how streaky the shoe is. If the shoe is starting to get streaky then you may not want to enforce this rule because streaks will work to your advantage.

Rules:

1.) Win goal of 6-10 units
2.) Stop loss of 10-20 units
3.) If the recovery goes on for too long then accept a loss pick the recovery back up at the next 3+capping trigger. Try to get as close to even as possible. The goal of the recovery it is to always recover +1 unit but sometimes you need to accept that it wont happen without a huge drawdown. So avoid the large drawdown and wait it out.
4.) If you want to be safer then follow the 5 unit safety net
5.) The main bet selection is the 3+capping selection
6.) Never bet five units while in the progression
7.) When count is even bet the opposite outcome.
8.) enter Zig Zag mode after 2 Zig Zags, but continue with count and continue betting based off the difference of the counts
9.) Always restart the count when entering a new capping bet. So if you recover and the count is 8v3 then you stop and wait for the next 3+capping trigger the count will be rest with the next recovery.
10.) Start the count of a 2v0 or 0v2, whichever outcome came out. This will allow you to take advantage of a streak of 3.
11.) The first losing outcome in the count will go up by 2. Each losing outcome after that goes up by 1. There is an example of this rule posted above.


As I said before, the most important factor is to be realistic and control emotions. If you pay attention to the shoe then you can sometimes make a bet opposite from what the count tells you to bet. For example. if the recovery is going on for too long and I see a streak of 3 capped by the opposite outcome then i will sometimes make the 3+capping bet, even if the count tells me that I am supposed to bet for the capped side to return.



I think I hit on all of the rules and aspects of this method. if there is anything missing then I will add it. There is probably a way to improve the method and I will be happy to answer any questions.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on July 13, 2009, 04:22:29 AM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: sniper on July 13, 2009, 06:58:17 AM
Hello John1234,

Thanks for posting your baccarat system. I really admire your dedication and enthusiasm. Wish you success in your baccarat challenge.

Regards

sniper
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 13, 2009, 03:26:18 PM
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 13, 2009, 03:29:26 PM
Hello John1234,

Thanks for posting your baccarat system. I really admire your dedication and enthusiasm. Wish you success in your baccarat challenge.

Regards

sniper

Thank you very much
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 15, 2009, 07:28:20 PM
I have a goal of winning 4 units per day for the next 7-8 weeks. This should put my bankroll up to $1000.00. When I get to $1000.00 I wills start to play for 6 units per day and I will never play for anything higher than 6 units.

Starting Bankroll $200.00
Current Bankroll $260.00 +12 units

My starting bankroll is a bit low but it is free money that I won somewhere so I figured that it wouldn't hurt to just roll it over to another casino. I am playing with 5 dollar units so if I win 4 units per day that is = to $20 per day. That should come out to be $140 per week. I will not begin withdrawing and playing for 6 units until I get up to the $1000 mark.

The method that I posted above was doing fine then I hit some bad shoes. the terrible two's were killing it. I actually have been using another person's system as a recovery and I have been having great results.

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: fatherfred on July 16, 2009, 05:27:37 PM
Hi John!
Think that your system works great and I really appreciate your work!!
I've also been struggling with the terrible twos.  Must be careful with those because it can hurt your bankroll really hard.

What do you do to recover from the twos john?

I played some roulette before but since you came up with this way of playing I can't take my eyes from baccarat!
It's strange but I can see a lot more patterns in this game.

At last, when you got the 3+capping trigger and you play the opposite from last, what do you do if it turns out to be equal? playing the same as before?

I mean like this: PPPB/ are you playing B again?

Thanks for all! :good:
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 16, 2009, 07:24:23 PM
Hi John!
Think that your system works great and I really appreciate your work!!
I've also been struggling with the terrible twos.  Must be careful with those because it can hurt your bankroll really hard.

What do you do to recover from the twos john?

I played some roulette before but since you came up with this way of playing I can't take my eyes from baccarat!
It's strange but I can see a lot more patterns in this game.

At last, when you got the 3+capping trigger and you play the opposite from last, what do you do if it turns out to be equal? playing the same as before?

I mean like this: PPPB/ are you playing B again?

Thanks for all! :good:


Thank you, I am happy to see that the system has been going well. I used to play a lot of roulette as well, mostly even chances, but I never had much success...well I had some success but I always got too greedy. I think that baccarat is an easier game to some degree.

As far as the terrible twos go, I honestly have not really worked on that lately. I have been busy with work and other stuff. I haven't really been using the recovery method when I play online for my 4 units. I have been betting against the last 7 with an up as you win progression as the recovery and it has been working great. The terrible twos were killing me and I got sick of having to play for more than 2 hours to make 4 units. Thats why I switched, but at some point I will look into this issue in greater depth. Sorry that I can't provide a better answer to your question.


I am confused about your second question. Are you asking what to do if there is an equal count? If that is what you are asking then here is what you do.

P
P
P
B 3+capping trigger
B Lose 0v2 now bet 2 units for B
P Lose 2v3 now bet 1 unit for B since the B side has the higher count
P Lose 4v4 now the count is even. you are betting the opposite outcome so bet for B
B win...this actually helps to take care of the terrible 2's to a point but if terrible two's keep coming in streaks then you will lose money

Was that your question?
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 16, 2009, 11:05:20 PM
6/16/09- Win goal for the day is achieved. I won +4 units. It took about 15 minutes and I had to go to the first 2 unit recovery bet everytime.

Total=  +16 units = $80.00

I am having anandram code me a bot. I am going up to school in one month so I will not have time to try to make my 4 units every day. The bot that he is coding for me does not have the recovery bet selection or the progression because I do not like the idea of my money being risked on a progressive system without me there to control it. It simply flat bets whenever there is a 3+capping trigger then it flat bets 1 unit to recover. If it does not recover then it stops and waits for the next 3+capping trigger. It would take awhile to make 4-6 units playing this way without a bot so hopefully the bot will help. 
Title: 3+capping/(1)2+capping combo+ 20 units week 1
Post by: John1234 on July 18, 2009, 06:27:54 PM
I fell asleep last night when I got in so I didn't get to play.

6/18/09 +4 units. Total is = +20 units = $100.00

end of week one finished +20 units, it should have finished plus 28 units but I missed 2 days.

I am using a 3+capping/(1)2+capping combo. The (1)2+capping is used as a recovery. I am using a delayed up as you win progression that is somewhat capped. I have not worked too much on the progression but the basic structure for now looks a bit like this 1 1 2 2 (3) (4). You have to win 1 unit twice to get to the 2 unit bet. If you win the 2 unit bet twice then you either stay at the two unit bet or you can drop down to the one unit bet and restart going up the ladder again, it all depends on where I am at recovery wise. The 3 and 4 unit bets are to be avoided as much as possible. I have not made one yet.

If you lose at all during the 2 unit bets you drop down to the first 1 unit bet and you have to start going up the ladder again.

I had a 12 unit drawdown during my most recent shoe when I was attempting to win 4 units with the count method that I described. I decided to break away from the count method and us the capping combo with the delayed up as you win progression and it recovered the 12 units plus made an extra 4 units with no drawdown. It worked very well.

for now I'm not going to explain what the (1)2+capping bet looks like.  
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: fatherfred on July 19, 2009, 12:40:53 PM
It took a while to answer but now I'm here. . !

That wasn't really my question but it's my fault that you misunderstood.  I just couln't find the word Tie.
I play the online-casino in swedish language so sometimes it can be hard to translate. .

So my question is, if you got a Tie, what are you doing then?

P
P
P
B <Trigger, play P here.
/  <Tie

Are you still playing P here? Or are you waiting for next trigger? I've noticed that those Tie's makes it harder in some shoes.  Sometimes maybe it's better to wait the nest trigger out? I don't know, just a thought. .

Then I'm a bit curious about your idea to solve the terrible two's and if it works well for you?

Again I'm very grateful that you share your ideas!

Fred
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Diarmaid on July 19, 2009, 11:30:43 PM
John,

Them 3000 shoes I got from you, do you know what casino they came from or more importantly are they from a continuous live table, like one after the other.

Cheers
D
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 20, 2009, 12:14:44 AM
John,

Them 3000 shoes I got from you, do you know what casino they came from or more importantly are they from a continuous live table, like one after the other.

Cheers
D

I have no idea where the shoes came from. I doubt that they are from a continuous live table, but they could be? Who knows.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 20, 2009, 12:20:55 AM
It took a while to answer but now I'm here. . !

That wasn't really my question but it's my fault that you misunderstood.  I just couln't find the word Tie.
I play the online-casino in swedish language so sometimes it can be hard to translate. .

So my question is, if you got a Tie, what are you doing then?

P
P
P
B <Trigger, play P here.
/  <Tie

Are you still playing P here? Or are you waiting for next trigger? I've noticed that those Tie's makes it harder in some shoes.  Sometimes maybe it's better to wait the nest trigger out? I don't know, just a thought. .

Then I'm a bit curious about your idea to solve the terrible two's and if it works well for you?

Again I'm very grateful that you share your ideas!

Fred


I always just pretend the tie never happened. But I have found that I usually lose the capping bet after a tie or a series of ties. So sometimes maybe it would make sense to wait for the next trigger. But I personally like to take my chances and just play even if the tie shoes up. If you feel uneasy about it then go with your gut and wait it out.

I still have no idea about the terrible two's. Maybe it would make sense to just bet the terrible twos? So you use the count progression and when you lose to the terrible twos you begin to bet the terrible 2's just as you would do with the chops. So you still keep the count but instead of betting based on what the count tells you to bet, you bet the terrible twos. That is the only thing that I can think of as of right now. I still haven't put my thought into it yet.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: fatherfred on July 20, 2009, 05:43:30 AM
You said you had a (1)2+capping combo bet that worked well.  I thought this combo helped to recover from the twos? About the progression, have you tested the 6-point divisor plan? If you follow it like you should it works pretty well with the 3+capping method.  But without 0,5$ markers it can be hard. .
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 20, 2009, 06:21:49 PM
You said you had a (1)2+capping combo bet that worked well.  I thought this combo helped to recover from the twos? About the progression, have you tested the 6-point divisor plan? If you follow it like you should it works pretty well with the 3+capping method.  But without 0,5$ markers it can be hard. .

yes it worked well for a short time then failed in testing so I stopped using it. I have tried the divisor but it didn't work so well.
 
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on July 21, 2009, 06:25:09 AM
yes it worked well for a short time then failed in testing so I stopped using it. I have tried the divisor but it didn't work so well.
 

Ok I need to catch up here been offline for over two weeks

John can you bring me up to speed on what you are using or testing and did the 2 cap fail thanks in advance

Rodney
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on July 21, 2009, 05:38:14 PM
Ok I need to catch up here been offline for over two weeks

John can you bring me up to speed on what you are using or testing and did the 2 cap fail thanks in advance

Rodney

It's nice to have you back.


Here is what is going on:

2+capping: The 2+capping would lose too many bets in a row. The drawdowns would get too large. I am not a big fan of progressions so it really bothers me when I have to go deep into the progression to recover. So for now I have given up on the 2+capping idea. It became difficult to balance the terrible twos with terrible two chops (whatever you call it).

3+capping: I returned to the 3+capping idea after coming up with an idea while testing the 2+capping idea. The 3+capping tweak involves using a count which dictates what to bet AND how many units to bet. I posted all about this idea in the thread. I tested on only 50 shoes and had great results. However it didn't do so great live, I kept losing with it. It does not do so great with the terrible twos or real long streaks of chops.

Most recent Idea: About 2 weeks ago I had an idea for a system that is based on using the previous shuffle to win. I finally started to play with the system and it is doing great. I like the system more than 3+capping because you can bet basically when you want to bet and you flat bet as much as possible. when you lose you use a slight positive progression that does not go higher than 3 units. I have described this method on the thread about using the shuffle to win. The only problem is that I have not been able to test it because all of the results need to be from the same table from continuous shoes. But I will be getting data like this soon.

Also, a bot is being made to play the 3+capping method live for me. The bot will only be flat betting 1 unit. On a win it stops. When it losses the capping bet it bets again one more time hoping to recover, and if it losses that bet then it stops and waits for the next capping bet.


So for right now I am focusing on using the shuffle to win. Some of my ideas about the system go a bit deeper than what I posted on that thread, but for now that is how I am playing. The bot that is playing the 3+capping method will capture data from continuous shoes for me to test, so I will run the bot in play mode a lot.

And if you haven't noticed I have been playing on Bet Phoenix. That is the only site as of now that accepts USA. I made 20 units using the capping method with the count then had 10 unit drawdown. Then I recovered with the shuffle system which I am going to continue playing with and testing.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on August 11, 2009, 11:16:40 AM
Since the forum has been down I have no longer been using the 3+capping method. I have been working on a system that uses the previous shuffle to win and it has done far better. It is mostly flat betting with a slight progression. The average drawdown is only about 1-3 units and I have not lost with it yet. I wrote about the original version over on another forum but there has been two major adjustments that I did not record since then. I am not going to write it now because I need to do more testing and I do not have time to do testing.

Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on August 11, 2009, 04:55:29 PM
Since the forum has been down I have no longer been using the 3+capping method. I have been working on a system that uses the previous shuffle to win and it has done far better. It is mostly flat betting with a slight progression. The average drawdown is only about 1-3 units and I have not lost with it yet. I wrote about the original version over on another forum but there has been two major adjustments that I did not record since then. I am not going to write it now because I need to do more testing and I do not have time to do testing.

Is difficult to test if you dont know where the shoes have come from tho maybe not matter to much because a shoe is a shoe is a shoe



Did the 3+ capping fail
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on August 11, 2009, 08:06:38 PM
Did the 3+ capping fail

No idea, I found something better and moved on. I never really did a good test with it. My problem with the method is that it needs a progression to win long term. It will not win long term flat betting. I got tired of seeing large drawdowns and looking over every progression in the book. I guess that I have changed over the last few months. At first I didn't mind large drawdowns but now I do. My new system fits my playing style. And there are many areas that I would like to explore based off the new system.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Natural9 on August 14, 2009, 03:55:19 AM
No idea, I found something better and moved on. I never really did a good test with it. My problem with the method is that it needs a progression to win long term. It will not win long term flat betting. I got tired of seeing large drawdowns and looking over every progression in the book. I guess that I have changed over the last few months. At first I didn't mind large drawdowns but now I do. My new system fits my playing style. And there are many areas that I would like to explore based off the new system.
When I did my limited testing with it it seemed to win 90 odd percent flat betting so i dont know if it is a loser long term
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on August 14, 2009, 01:30:21 PM
When I did my limited testing with it it seemed to win 90 odd percent flat betting so I dont know if it is a loser long term

I actually have a bot that plays it flat betting. I have not used the bot for real money and I don't know if I am going to. I ran it a little bit and it is up a few units in play money. I'll try to run it while I sleep at night in play mode to see how it does. Everytime I go to run it while I am not at my computer, my computer shuts down. So hopefully I'll get all of my settings on my computer sorted out soon.
Title: 3+capping/opposite shoe hybrid
Post by: John1234 on August 26, 2009, 08:16:11 PM
After doing some thinking I think that I may have a way to improve the 3+capping method.
Right now I either play the 3+capping method without the progression or I play my new system (using the opposite shoe). I have mainly been focusing on the opposite shoe system because it has been more successful and much safer.

Last night as I was playing I realized that I can combine the two systems and make a 3+capping opposite shoe hybrid. I am not going to go into details on what the system will look like yet. I still have to gather some more thoughts on this and begin testing. I am going to continue playing the opposite shoe system live (this will also allow me to gather shoes for testing). Whenever I have time I will work on the 3+capping hybrid. Right now my idea is only an idea but I think it could possibly be very successful. I guess that time will tell.

I'll explore this idea and elaborate more when I get free time. It will probably be a somewhat long process because I am back at college. If anybody is interested in helping then let me know. Many of you are much better at this then me.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: Sundowner on August 26, 2009, 09:09:03 PM
Hi John,

i'm thinking that you should stick with the opposite shoe method because you say it is doing so well till now.
i think you said you have won more than 150 units till now which is great.
What bankroll you think would be appropriate and what are the worse drawdowns you have experienced?

Regards,
Sundowner.
Title: Re: my method of playing
Post by: John1234 on August 26, 2009, 09:41:14 PM
Hi John,

I'm thinking that you should stick with the opposite shoe method because you say it is doing so well till now.
I think you said you have won more than 150 units till now which is great.
What bankroll you think would be appropriate and what are the worse drawdowns you have experienced?

Regards,
Sundowner.

Thanks for the advice. I am sticking with the opposite shoe system for now but I am going to begin thinking about this idea.

I am not sure what a good bankroll would be. When I won the 150 units I started with a bankroll of 60 units. The method involves a slight progression so a large bankroll should not be needed. However, I always like to have a little more to be safe. I would say that a bankroll between 40 to 100 units would be good enough.
My largest drawdown has been -3 or -4 units.