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Advantage Play (roulette wheel physics) => Roulette Physics => Topic started by: TwoCatSam on April 18, 2010, 07:02:35 PM

Title: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 18, 2010, 07:02:35 PM
In this thread I will question your logic, something many of you seem to have been born without.  I will ask a series of questions relating to what you seem to believe about roulette.

I doubt if I get any replies.

First question:

Assume red has hit ten spins in a row and you bet black believing black has a greater chance than red on the eleventh spin.  Why?   A logical mind would have to assume several things which, being logical, it would reject.

1.  The pockets for black numbers will increase in width while the pockets for red decrease in width.
2.  The ball will say, "Oh geez, I need to get in a black pocket."
3.  The black pockets will say, "Oh, geez, one of us needs to trap that ball."
4.  A "Roulette God" is floating above the wheel and he says, "OK, enough with this red stuff!"
5.  Ah, the last and most illogical but one believed by many including horse players:  If I bet enough on red, or horse number three, it will win.  Bigger bets always cause certain colors, numbers, horses, etc., to win.  Included in this delusion is the idea that if everyone at the table bets on black, it will have a greater chance to win.

I'd love to hear some of you brains explain this "phenomenon" of sleepers having a greater chance of hitting after X naps.   Remember, "It just happens!" is not an answer.

Play along with me and at the end of this thread I'll give you something really, really good for free.

TwoCat
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: cheese on April 18, 2010, 07:27:13 PM
Answer this then. If after 10 reds is a bad time to bet black, how about after 15? Or after 20? The odds never change, the probability never changes, but at some point betting black becomes a very good bet. When is that time and why does it become a good bet?
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 18, 2010, 09:13:33 PM
but at some point betting black becomes a very good bet.

Is there conclusive proof of this?

is it cant go on forever 

Why couldn't it? 
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: cheese on April 18, 2010, 09:45:04 PM
is it cant go on forever  Why couldn't it? >>>

Theoretically it could, but experience tells you it probably won't. If you bet a marty at the 18th red, that it will be black before the 23rd red comes up, thats a good bet. It can and will go more than 23 sometimes, but not many in your lifetime.
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: bombus on April 18, 2010, 10:05:29 PM
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 18, 2010, 10:25:12 PM
Suppose you waited for 18 reds in a row and then encased the wheel in a giant plastic bubble and left it for ten years.  Would it still be hard to get to 23 reds.  Does time enter into the equation.

It is the same to predict the next spin to be red as it is to predict the 100th spin from now will be red.  Twice as difficult to predict the next two will be red.  Very difficult to predict ten reds in a row. 

If the odds ever change even a fraction, something in the physical world will have to change.  If 1,000 roulette players lined up to jump off a cliff and 999 of them hit the ground and one just floated off into space, something in the physical world changed.

All of these systems I see bantered about depend upon something changing for them to work. 

To ever beat this game, one must work within the laws of math and physics.  Remember, the Wright Brothers did not eliminate gravity, they just overcame it.

Sam
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: Number Six on April 18, 2010, 10:46:48 PM
Sam,
Your points are valid. The maths of the game is absolute. For every unit you wager you pay a tax to the house worth a certain percentage of that unit value. So far no one has been able to prove that they can tame the nature of randomness or the negative expectancy by deploying a roulette system. The game is sound and no one can change it. Unfortunately the mentality of most gamblers prevents them from accepting the facts. If you're lucky you'll win for a while before you lose and you might come out ahead if you act prudently and understand what is happening. As for timing, it doesn't matter. The chaos stops when you do and carries on when you do. It applies itself to every player individually and every method. That is why hit and run approaches are ineffective, money management, discipline and all the rest of it is meaningless unless you can turn a negative into a positive and sustain it. The only "good" bets are sure bets and in roulette there aren't any sure bets. You can only win as much as the maths will allow you to.
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: cheese on April 18, 2010, 11:12:48 PM
Its a moot point, I can count on one hand the times I've seen more than 18 in a row.
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: Number Six on April 18, 2010, 11:25:14 PM
like to know how you save money if you dont have money management?

with all them bills to pay "losing bets"

wonders how a trader makes money with no money management and no stop loss and no profit target

if I lose 200 units on a 250 bankroll is that money management

if I lose 2 units on a 250 bankroll that is money management

if theres a bad run it makes sence to stop id rather take my chances that the next time I go on that bad run wont be happening at that time

disapline lets just keep betting even tho we are 100 up lets get tired lets get bored lets try win fast lets just lose it all because we hit a bad run

anything in life there is no such thing as a sure bet apart from your death

I swear your stupid you think your clever but your not

since you love off math work this out if I lose on average 100 units a week but make 300 units a week in 52 weeks of the year how much would I of made would I be negative like yourself?

captin-save-a-casino aka casino rep aka deluded aka negative aka no point being here

Once again you have nothing to offer but the slurs of a halt-wit . You have nothing to offer this thread and nothing to offer this forum. You have no arguments, you have no points. You understand nothing and it is not our job to educate you.

Don't waste your breath with the trash, unless you enjoy embarrassing yourself. Besides your posts are illiterate and nonsensical. Understand this: you can only win if you have a real positive edge, it doesn't matter if you're playing roulette or betting horses. If you have no edge pretty soon you'll have no money to manage. DUH. Get it? If you don't understand that there is no hope for you. Keeping kidding yourself, who cares?

For the sake of Sam's thread I am not replying to you again and I suggest everyone else does the same. Moreover, you simply aren't worth the time of day.
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: cheese on April 19, 2010, 12:16:32 AM
Sam, please don't take that clown StackDunce seriously. He's never played the game and is only here to disrupt. Please continue, we miss your input on the board.
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 19, 2010, 01:03:12 AM
From the stacked and bundled fellow:

since you love off math work this out if I lose on average 100 units a week but make 300 units a week in 52 weeks of the year how much would I of made would I be negative like yourself?

Bro, "if" is the biggest word in the dictionary.  If I were smart enough, I'd invent cold fusion and then you'd be amazed.  But I'm not!  "If" for every $500 I ran through the window I got back six, I'd be rich.  If.......

After all the years I've been on this forum, people are still trying to determine if this twelve numbers will hit more frequently than that twelve?  Or will this street or lane or line hit more often?

The idea that reds and blacks will somehow even out in the long run is simply not so.  It is simply not so!  I read it in a book once and did not believe it myself until I worked out the math.  After a million spins, the appearance that the gap narrows is certainly there.  However, the actual gap may or may not close at all.

So much of what we accept for truth is simply and totally illogical.

Sam
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: cheese on April 19, 2010, 01:18:56 AM
After a million spins, the appearance that the gap narrows is certainly there.  However, the actual gap may or may not close at all>>

The mathmatical gap narrows, but the actual numbers of seperation increases. Figure that one out. And the more samples you run, they hight the seperation gets and the closer the math gets to even. Arguggh!
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: Bayes on April 19, 2010, 02:46:55 AM
While I don't agree with a lot of what fender says, he's right that you can give the wheel too much respect. If you're terrified of the house edge you won't ever play the game. Don't forget that the mathematics is an abstract simplification and that all events are generated by a physical process (even RNG).
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 19, 2010, 12:32:51 PM
I will freely part with something I have learned from doing a year's worth of computer studies:  YOU CAN'T BEAT RANDOM.

If you could beat random, you could just go over to Bet Voyager where there is no house edge and make a killing by beating random.  But you can't do it.  Keep in mind:  YOU CAN'T BEAT RANDOM.

So how can we use this as a selection method?  Easy.  Say you are betting red and black.   Flip a coin, program a RNG, or find some other random method of selecting red/black.  Flipping a coin?  Let heads be red.  Using an RNG?  Let 1 be red.

Simply use your RNG selector to tell you whether to bet on red or black.  If you can't beat random in the game, why do you think you can beat random as a selection process?  You can't!  YOU CAN'T BEAT RANDOM.  So let random be your selector!!

If you take the time to study this, you will find it beats every known method of selection.  Betting double streets?  Throw a dice and let it decide. 

I have programed the program to test this over hundreds and hundreds of trials with over a million spins each.  I even purchased a new computer to dedicate to this study.

If Tiago programs Mr J's "Two's Company", I will run it extensively and then run it against two randomly selected numbers.  I truly hope random looses for once.

I'm probably done here................

Sam
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: superman on April 19, 2010, 01:01:55 PM
Sam, I create my own bot tools, it beats clicking all the time, I have tried using random against random, 1 for red 2 for black, against all EC bets on a european wheel, the results were sometimes good sometimes bad. I had some good results from random between 1 & 6

eg
1 = black
2 = red
3 =even
4 odd etc

Are you considering any sort of progression? or just flat betting, I had some good results with keeping a total of all lost bets then after say 4 loses (don't have to be in a row WLWWWLLWWL*) raise the bet for one turn.

Ignore Stack, he could be on cr@ck or something
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: Noble Savage on April 19, 2010, 01:52:30 PM
Sam check your PM. :)
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: TwoCatSam on April 19, 2010, 02:08:03 PM
I cannot beat random..............

I do use a plateaued progression, a very mild one.  It resets when a unit of profit is made and moves on.

So far it has been very successful over the past six months.  I am now playing it for real money.  Will I win?  Lord, who knows?

I just know that of all the selection methods available to me, nothing beats random.

I do use money management.  I do not use emotion.  I set it and forget it.  It can win or lose just fine without me.

I once said on this forum I had a 90% chance of doubling a bankroll.  I've done that a dozen times since I said that.

If someone wants to challenge me, I'm up for it.  Naturally, I'll probably lose!!

Sam
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: Rheti on April 21, 2010, 10:57:15 AM
10 reds I will bet 1 euro  on Black .. no progression
15 reds I will bet 5 euro
20 reds I will bet 10 euro
25 reds I will bet 50 euro

There's no Certainty just Probability..
Title: Re: The TwoCat Q&A thread as to physics and how it applies to roulette.
Post by: sniper on April 21, 2010, 12:35:14 PM
Hello Sam,

Thanks for your post and nice to hear from you again.

Regards

sniper