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Main => Roulette & Gambling framework => Topic started by: cheese on November 26, 2011, 10:09:39 PM

Title: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on November 26, 2011, 10:09:39 PM
If you want to beat roulette, study probability. Forget progressions,
forget finding the right combination of bets on the layout. Its all
about understanding probability. Look at what Ken does, for instance.
He's successful because he makes bets based on probability. Looking
at anything else in this game is a waste of time.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on November 26, 2011, 10:22:19 PM
Yeah, years ago I would bet on the very cold number(s), assuming IT HAD TO HIT soon. That was back then, I lost ALOT of money (did have some good days). Now, I rotate the ONE hottest number in and out of the last 23 hit, all flat betting.

It might be the #16 thats hitting alot, I stay on it until it ROTATES
out of the 23 and then the #35 might 'take over' as the HOT number, I'll then bet on that etc.

Its simple and boring and you MUST have the time to play it. It could take a few hours for your BR to drop and then a few more hours for your BR to rise again. In my opinion, the fewer numbers a person plays, the more free time you must have for that method. You can NOT bet 1-3 numbers and only have two hours to play that method!!

Ken
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on November 26, 2011, 11:12:46 PM
But you're playing probability, not layout. Probability is
hard, you have to constantly pay attention. Its easier
to just drink a lot bet the layout. And lose.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Far-Q on November 27, 2011, 08:22:43 AM
Hello mr J,

Thank you for posting this on here.
Ive been looking at a similar bet but with slightly more numbers..up to around 3 or so.. with varying results.
Ive just tried this out over 87 spins ( I know its not a lot) and Im up 156 units (RX) flat betting.
Im sure there can be some chunky drawdowns but I can also see the potential.

Again thanks.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: jrhelp007 on November 30, 2011, 12:46:23 AM
Hello Cheese,

With all the respect your written statement:

"f you want to beat roulette, study probability. Forget progressions,
forget finding the right combination of bets on the layout. Its all
about understanding probability. Look at what Ken does, for instance.
He's successful because he makes bets based on probability. Looking
at anything else in this game is a waste of time".

You are wrong my friend! Why?

Because it has been shown time and again that roulette systems that rely on sequential or conditional probability have failed to produce successful results consistently. That is because, in practice, roulette is not a game of probability.

Casino roulette wheel, winning number spin outcome. At roulette each spin is a new spin and the outcome is never determined by prior spins. Therefore the probability for a possible outcome is the same for each spin and a probability advantage cannot be generated.

John

Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on November 30, 2011, 06:29:51 AM
Quote from: jrhelp007 on November 30, 2011, 12:46:23 AM
sequential or conditional probability

There are a few more types of probability than those two.


>>and the outcome is never determined by prior spins.>>


True. That doesn't mean prior spins don't provide clues, however.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Ulysses on November 30, 2011, 11:55:20 AM
Quote from: jrhelp007 on November 30, 2011, 12:46:23 AMAt roulette each spin is a new spin and the outcome is never determined by prior spins.

I believe quite a few of the last spins determine the next spins. Why? Because it's not all mechanical. The dealer influences the outcome whether you or she realizes this or not.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on November 30, 2011, 04:05:26 PM
Quote from: cheese on November 30, 2011, 06:29:51 AM
There are a few more types of probability than those two.


>>and the outcome is never determined by prior spins.>>


True. That doesn't mean prior spins don't provide clues, however.


Describe the other types of probability other than sequential and conditional that are meaningful.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on November 30, 2011, 04:24:53 PM
Quote from: cheese on November 26, 2011, 10:09:39 PM
If you want to beat roulette, study probability. Forget progressions,
forget finding the right combination of bets on the layout. Its all
about understanding probability. Look at what Ken does, for instance.
He's successful because he makes bets based on probability. Looking
at anything else in this game is a waste of time.

Invalid statement. Any body who listens to this, expect to loose.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on November 30, 2011, 08:13:03 PM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on November 30, 2011, 04:24:53 PM
Invalid statement. Any body who listens to this, expect to lose.

Casinos call people like you 'casino oriented'. Its their
term for loser.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on November 30, 2011, 09:31:44 PM
Quote from: cheese on November 30, 2011, 06:29:51 AM
There are a few more types of probability than those two.


>>and the outcome is never determined by prior spins.>>


True. That doesn't mean prior spins don't provide clues, however.


Straight from Wikipedia: Probability in relation to Randomness

In a deterministic universe, based on Newtonian concepts, there would be no probability if all conditions are known, (Laplace's demon). In the case of a roulette wheel, if the force of the hand and the period of that force are known, the number on which the ball will stop would be a certainty. Of course, this also assumes knowledge of inertia and friction of the wheel, weight, smoothness and roundness of the ball, variations in hand speed during the turning and so forth. A probabilistic description can thus be more useful than Newtonian mechanics for analyzing the pattern of outcomes of repeated rolls of roulette wheel.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Bayes on December 02, 2011, 05:10:41 AM
Quote from: jrhelp007 on November 30, 2011, 12:46:23 AM
Because it has been shown time and again that roulette systems that rely on sequential or conditional probability have failed to produce successful results consistently. That is because, in practice, roulette is not a game of probability.

If you ignore physics, then what else is there apart from probability? Even with AP you're still relying on probability to some extent. Better to use probability than numerology, astrology or other superstitious nonsense.

Probability is a very abstract concept, so you can't say it doesn't 'work' or has failed to produce successful results. I agree with Ken in that it's all in the definitions. Some say that systems don't work, but what is a 'system' in regards to roulette? Your definition may be different from mine.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 03:21:11 PM
Cheese, your just a bellend who hasn't a clue in what they are talking about.

Your the type of guy who copies and pastes from Wiki to try impress people.

Your the looser mate.

Any body who believes beating roulette is about probability, just hasn't done their research into the game.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 06:28:05 PM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 03:21:11 PM
Cheese, your just a bellend who hasn't a clue in what they are talking about.

Your the type of guy who copies and pastes from Wiki to try impress people.

Your the loser mate.

Any body who believes beating roulette is about probability, just hasn't done their research into the game.

You don't know who 'Cheese' is.  A full time player, a consistent winner while flat betting.  Look up the member name 'Spike'  to get educated!

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=16634.0 (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=16634.0)
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 02, 2011, 08:12:24 PM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 03:21:11 PM
Your the type of guy who copies and pastes from Wiki to try impress people. Your the loser mate.

Any body who believes beating roulette is about probability, just hasn't done their research into the game.

I've never copied and pasted anything from Wiki in my
life. And anybody who thinks its NOT about probability,
is clueless. All I do is research, and practice, and play.
Its 100% about probability. When you deal with random
outcomes it can't be about anything else. Probability
is all about dealing with incomplete information, thats why
there are no probability math laws. If we had complete
information, and could make unbreakable laws, there
would be no need for probability.

Sorry to go over your head, go back to reading the flip
side of the cereal box, where you obviously get all your
info.

BTW, brainiac, its you're, not 'your'. And its anybody, not
'any body'. If you want to be taken seriously, you really
need to work on the details.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 08:18:06 PM
Quote from: cheese on December 02, 2011, 08:12:24 PM
And anybody who thinks its NOT about probability,
is clueless. All I do is research, and practice, and play.
Its 100% about probability. When you deal with random
outcomes it can't be about anything else. Probability
is all about dealing with incomplete information, thats why
there are no probability math laws. If we had complete
information, and could make unbreakable laws, there
would be no need for probability.

In this example, if I see the last 5 spins as all RED, probability would tell me a BLACK "might" be coming soon.  However if i'm reading the random at the same time, the random is telling me we are "streaking" or not changing.  How can a bet be placed if probabilty and "random" disagree?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 02, 2011, 08:23:10 PM
Quote from: Bayes on December 02, 2011, 05:10:41 AM
Probability is a very abstract concept, so you can't say it doesn't 'work' or has failed to produce successful results.

Its not even a science as much as it is a theory. You can
apply enough probability theory to roulette to beat the
living crap out of it, but its not easy. It takes constant
practice and vigilance to stay on top of it. At first you'll
see more times to not play, then you will see times that
are right to play. The more you practice, the more you'll
see whats going on and the more everything will fall into
place.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 02, 2011, 08:32:06 PM
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 08:18:06 PM
In this example, if I see the last 5 spins as all RED, probability would tell me a BLACK "might" be coming soon.  However if I'm reading the random at the same time, the random is telling me we are "streaking" or not changing.  How can a bet be placed if probabilty and "random" disagree?

Why would 5 reds in a row tell you anything?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 08:41:10 PM
5 REDS in a row tell me alot.  If you look at the game in only one of 2 ways, streaks and chop, it tells me the trend is in a streak.  However probability will tell me, the streak won't last forever.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 02, 2011, 09:05:12 PM
5 reds in a row isn't much to go on to make a bet. You
can never have too much information.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 02, 2011, 09:09:53 PM
Here's something that wasn't copied from Wiki, it comes from
here:  nolinks://nolinks.math.utep.edu/Faculty/mleung/probabilityandstatistics/beg.html (nolinks://nolinks.math.utep.edu/Faculty/mleung/probabilityandstatistics/beg.html)



"The first major accomplishment in the development
of probability theory was the realization that one
could actually predict to a certain degree of accuracy
events which were yet to come."
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 11:10:58 PM
Quote from: cheese on December 02, 2011, 09:05:12 PM
5 reds in a row isn't much to go on to make a bet. You
can never have too much information.

Could've sworn you had mentioned when you start, you write down the first 5 results and just start playing.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 11:17:06 PM
Quote from: ll l ll l lll ll on December 02, 2011, 06:28:05 PM
You don't know who 'Cheese' is.  A full time player, a consistent winner while flat betting.  Look up the member name 'Spike'  to loose money!

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=16634.0 (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=16634.0)

Ill pass on this one. But thanks.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 11:19:09 PM
Quote from: cheese on December 02, 2011, 08:12:24 PM
I've never copied and pasted anything from Wiki in my
life. And anybody who thinks its NOT about probability,
is clueless. All I do is research, and practice, and play.
Its 100% about probability.
When you deal with random
outcomes it can't be about anything else. Probability
is all about dealing with incomplete information, thats why
there are no probability math laws. If we had complete
information, and could make unbreakable laws, there
would be no need for probability.

Sorry to go over your head, go back to reading the flip
side of the cereal box, where you obviously get all your
info.

BTW, brainiac, its you're, not 'your'. And its anybody, not
'any body'. If you want to be taken seriously, you really
need to work on the details.

:lol: :lol:
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on December 03, 2011, 12:32:16 AM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 02, 2011, 03:21:11 PM
Cheese, your just a bellend who hasn't a clue in what they are talking about.

Your the type of guy who copies and pastes from Wiki to try impress people.

Your the loser mate.

Any body who believes beating roulette is about probability, just hasn't done their research into the game.

how can u call someone loser if u don't even know him? just because u don't agree with his views?
that's not a good example of discussion obviously.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 03, 2011, 01:49:29 AM
Quote from: iggiv on December 03, 2011, 12:32:16 AM
how can u call someone loser if u don't even know him? just because u don't agree with his views?
that's not a good example of discussion obviously.

Well i totally agree, ask cheese the same thing. After all it was him who accused me of it first.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on December 03, 2011, 02:01:54 AM
i believe it was not personal against u but rather his opinion about most of people here.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 03, 2011, 02:27:25 AM
Quote from: iggiv on December 03, 2011, 02:01:54 AM
I believe it was not personal against u but rather his opinion about most of people here.

The problem with this guy, he thinks he is some kind of bigshot (a god) because he thinks he can beat roulette.

So what if he does? who cares? Because I don't. Advantage play is small, but yes roulette is being beaten every day by all types of different people in different country's - Cheese is not the only AP out there (Irrelevant because he's not) But my point.

But I gotta say, advantage players would laugh at this quote (from cheese) if they saw this:

"And anybody who thinks its NOT about probability,
is clueless. All I do is research, and practice, and play.
Its 100% about probability"


Sorry but I had to laugh because its really not what a pro would say. But I suppose in this industry, you will always see this type of nonsense being said.

AP's know beating roulette is purely based on physics. - Predicting the outcome the area of where the ball is going to land. Period (Hybrid roulette computers announce the exact number it will land on). Can you get predictions based on probability? NO, of course not.

I just see a wheel with numbered pockets, a rotor and the ball.

I understand that some people do truly believe that roulette can be beaten based on probability, but in reality, its not possible, no matter how hard it is to believe.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 03, 2011, 04:24:29 AM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 03, 2011, 02:27:25 AM

Sorry but I had to laugh because its really not what a pro would say.

How would you know what a pro would or would not say. You
don't have a clue.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Kelly on December 03, 2011, 05:32:40 AM
"The first major accomplishment in the development
of probability theory was the realization that one
could actually predict to a certain degree of accuracy
events which were yet to come."

Cheese you have to have a closer look on what you are discussing.  The probability for a number to hit is 1:37 so your phrase means that we can predict that a number will come 1 in 37 and the payout is 35. Thats hardly the soloution for beating roulette.  If you think you can short cut by sitting out numbers, you have to remember that the ball has no memory of how far behind or in front it is.    Maybe a number is behind measured in 200 spins, maybe the exact same number is in front measured over 1000 spins, maybe it is exactly where it should be measured over 2000 spins. No one has a clue, and even if they had, there is no way the data can provide a hint for the next bet-

You refer to ken as being successfull.  Well he was successfull when he played sleepers yeeerrrssss ago. Now he plays hot numbers and is still sucessfull and so he will be in 5 years time when i look in here again.  Make of it what you want.  Its the internet, no one is responsible for anything and everybody is as big as house if someone steps on their toes.  Even the little goggle eyed nerd behind his super Mac.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 03, 2011, 05:40:03 AM
  "Well he was successfull when he played sleepers yeeerrrssss ago. Now he plays hot numbers and is still sucessfull" >>> You left out a KEY word.....'MORE' successful. I did 'well' playing sleepers. Dont forget, I have reported many times regarding losing quite alot. Its called TRIAL & ERROR, I have learned a TON over the years, thank God for that !! I still owe ya one J.C. !!!!

Ken   ;)
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Kelly on December 03, 2011, 06:40:28 AM
I rest my case. 
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: pins on December 03, 2011, 07:35:44 AM
if you guess right its pure chance. we like to think we have some special ability which others do not possess . but think how many times do you guess wrong.  give me one reason why i should place a bet.  i will be surprised if anybody can tell me when to place a bet. the future not ours to see.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 03, 2011, 11:44:19 AM
Quote from: Kelly on December 03, 2011, 06:40:28 AM
I rest my case. 

Don't hate the player, hate the game.   :laugh: If you can't win Kelly, its not my fault.

Ken
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 05, 2011, 07:05:04 PM
 :)

If you bet on 3 numbers for 100 spins then you will require 8.33 hits to break even, and 9 hits will profit 8%.

There is a probability of only 3/37 for any 3 numbers hitting on any spin, but there is a 100% probability that at least one group of 3 adjacent numbers will hit at least 9 times in 100 spins.

Try it yourself. Download 100 spins from random.org and run then through RX. Check the number statistics for any set of spins and there will always be at least one 3 adjacent number group that shows a profit, or hits above probability.

You could use any 3 numbers, but adjacent numbers are more practical to follow.

So there is more than 1 probability at work here. There is the probability of independent trials, and the probability of accumulated trials. They both rely on the same results but operate within separate dimensions. The first probability is rigid and unyielding. But the second is elastic and submissive.

If you get 100 people to give 1 number each then run the stream through RX the result will be very similar. There will be at least one 3 adjacent number group that profits or hits beyond probability. This shows that the probability of accumulated trials operates separately from the probability of independent or single trials. We could therefore surmise that the probability of accumulated trials is dependent on past results.


Example:


(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi499.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Frr351%2Fskakus%2Frdo100p1.jpg&hash=585b4fff59135dabc60a81e71f43899cc4a662ce)

In this example there are 17 x 3 number combinations that hit above probability. That's 45.95% (almost half) of the available combinations. So, again in this example, just by randomly betting on 3 adjacent numbers you have close to 50% chance of winning.

1.2.3 w
2.3.4 w
3.4.5 w
4.5.6 w
5.6.7 L
6.7.8 L
7.8.9 L
8.9.10 L
9.10.11 L
10.11.12 L
11.12.13 L
12.13.14 L
13.14.15 L
14.15.16 L
15.16.17 L
16.17.18 L
17.18.19 L
18.19.20 L
19.20.21 w
20.21.22 w
21.22.23 w
22.23.24 w
23.24.25 w
24.25.26 w
25.26.27 L
26.27.28 L
27.28.29 w
28.29.30 w
29.30.31 L
30.31.32 w
31.32.33 w
32.33.34 w
33.34.35 L
34.35.36 L
35.36.0 L
36.0.1 w
0.1.2 w


Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 05, 2011, 07:25:26 PM
 :)

Here's the thing... there are ways to guess or speculate on the outcomes using the probability of accumulated trials, but once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.

So whatever fandangled bet you come up with, it's a good idea not to push it beyond the probablilty for that particular bet on that particular attack.

If it don't win within the expected probability then dump it and move to the next attack.

Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on December 05, 2011, 09:27:08 PM
Quote from: Mr J on December 03, 2011, 11:44:19 AM
Don't hate the player, hate the game.   :laugh: If you can't win Kelly, its not my fault.

Ken

Kelly CAN
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 06, 2011, 01:23:51 AM
Kelly 'can' do whatever he wants to but the thing he will NOT do, is to bring me DOWN to his level. I won't apologize to ANYONE for doing 'well' with this game.

Ken
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on December 06, 2011, 01:43:24 AM
keep goin. if someone is skeptical why should u care? the only one who really needs a prооf  of your winnings is yourself.
but if someone is skeptical it does not mean that he loses the game either
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 06, 2011, 01:50:20 AM
Quote from: iggiv on December 06, 2011, 01:43:24 AM
keep goin. if someone is skeptical why should u care? the only one who really needs a prооf  of your winnings is yourself.
but if someone is skeptical it does not mean that he loses the game either

Thats fair enough and I said it before......I'm still WAITING for someone to show me, their way of playing this game is better than my way(s).

Ken
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Bayes on December 06, 2011, 07:44:46 AM
Quote from: bombus on December 05, 2011, 07:25:26 PM
:)

Here's the thing... there are ways to guess or speculate on the outcomes using the probability of accumulated trials, but once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.

So whatever fandangled bet you come up with, it's a good idea not to push it beyond the probablilty for that particular bet on that particular attack.

If it don't win within the expected probability then dump it and move to the next attack.

:clapping:

Why limit yourself to one simple probability? True, knowing only that the probability of a single number hitting is 1/37 won't help, but there are many other probabilities which when taken into account, can indicate a better bet than random betting would give. If probability is the best guess given partial information, then it follows that more information will give you a better guess.

Take the even chances, the probability of red hitting is approximately 0.5. But streaks are to chops (and vice-versa)  as red is to black, probability-wise, so from a  sequence of:

R
R
 B
R
R
R
R
 B
R
R
 B
R
R
R
 B
R

You can form the following sequence:

S
 C
S
 C
S
 C
S
 C

where S = streak, and C = chop.

Now, the first sequence has 12 reds vs 4 blacks, so on the criteria of "balance" it might seem that black is "due", but this isn't the case with regard to the 2nd sequence, which is just as valid probabilistically, only looking at the R/B sequence from another dimension, as it were.

Just as valid are a number of other dimensions you can extract from the same raw data; the following ratios are ALL equal to a probability of 0.5 ie; as red is to black:

The number of series of 2 to the number of series higher than 2.
The number of series of 3 to the number of series higher than 3.
etc...
The number of isolated singles vs the number of SERIES of singles.
The number of series of singles of 2 vs the number of series of singles higher than 2.
The number of isolated series of 2 vs the number of series of 2 in series
etc...

Randomness doesn't only have breadth but it also has depth. So taking the 2nd sequence above, you can re-apply the operation of taking the chops vs streaks and end up with:

C
C
C
C
C
C


ie: a run of 6 consecutive chops, and this is also perfectly valid.

So by taking into account further probabilities which are derived from the raw data of R/B, you can make better guesses as to the next R or B.



 
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Nathan Detroit on December 06, 2011, 11:11:34 AM
Among roulette pros this one  number betting method is also known as the ANDRUCCI System and has been around for  years .  .

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 06, 2011, 07:03:05 PM
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on December 06, 2011, 11:11:34 AM
Among roulette pros this one  number betting method is also known as the ANDRUCCI System and has been around for  years .  .

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

What one number betting method in this thread are you referring to?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: pins on December 06, 2011, 07:08:13 PM
three numbers in hundred spins. say you check 37 spins and often one street sleeps. and you back that street.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 06, 2011, 07:34:02 PM
Quote from: pins on December 06, 2011, 07:08:13 PM
three numbers in hundred spins. say you check 37 spins and often one street sleeps. and you back that street.


The probability for one street hitting in 37 spins is 3/37 so if you did decide to bet on that street then you should probably only bet on it 12 times max, limiting the loss to 36 units, then find another street to bet on.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 06, 2011, 07:47:48 PM
Quote from: Bayes on December 06, 2011, 07:44:46 AM
So by taking into account further probabilities which are derived from the raw data of R/B, you can make better guesses as to the next R or B.


Quote from: bombus on December 05, 2011, 07:25:26 PM
... once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Nathan Detroit on December 06, 2011, 07:53:20 PM
bombus,

I am refering to the method by Mr J betting  one   hot number  from a certain  amount of previous spins which is very similar  to the ANDRUCCI system.



Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 06, 2011, 07:56:36 PM
Ok, I see it now.

Thanks ND.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 06, 2011, 08:02:33 PM
Mr J.

I don't really know the dynamics of what you are doing.

But,

when you are referring to "Hot numbers" Do you mean you are playing on biased wheels?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: pins on December 06, 2011, 10:32:24 PM
what imeant was you reckon that in a hundred spins you will get 8 hits on three numbers. if a street sleeps for 40 spins can i expect 8 hits in the next  60 spins. if so i could make a nice profit.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 06, 2011, 11:21:10 PM
I see what you mean.

Yes there will always be some 3 number combinations that get at least 8 hits, and they don't have to be streets, but I did not say how you would know which ones. If anything a street that sleeps for 40 spins would be best left alone in preference to a street that is punching above its weight.

Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 08, 2011, 12:44:03 PM
Quote from: Bayes on December 06, 2011, 07:44:46 AM
:clapping:

Why limit yourself to one simple probability? True, knowing only that the probability of a single number hitting is 1/37 won't help, but there are many other probabilities which when taken into account, can indicate a better bet than random betting would give. If probability is the best guess given partial information, then it follows that more information will give you a better guess.

I think your thinking is spot on and has a lot of merit.  Tracking the occurance of singles vs. doubles vs. triples etc... in regards to probability can be the difference in the accuracy of predicting future outcomes, or educated guesses.  Is this how you play?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Bayes on December 09, 2011, 05:28:23 AM
I take account of other probabilities because it gives you a bigger picture of what MAY happen next. If things don't go the way I predicted, after a couple of spins I move on to another target. It's all RANDOM, and the only constant is change, but playing this way keeps the losing runs to a minimum.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 09, 2011, 05:21:23 PM
Quote from: Bayes on December 09, 2011, 05:28:23 AM
It's all RANDOM, and the only constant is change

Random is the most important aspect. Reading random
isn't a joke, its not possible to win consistantly without
the ability read random well enough to make accurate
educated guesses. The hardest thing for people to get
used to is the game resets itself after every spin. Its
the human tendency to hope or think things will continue
on in some recognizable and dependable way. With random
thats impossible. You almost have to think random to be
able to read it, like you do with a foreign language.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Bayes on December 10, 2011, 10:15:43 AM
QuoteRandom is the most important aspect. Reading random
isn't a joke, its not possible to win consistantly without
the ability read random well enough to make accurate
educated guesses

Having pooh-poohed this notion in the past, it pains me a little to have to agree with you, but I have to admit it makes a difference. If I switch off and bet like a robot using some purely mechanical method, I lose far more than if I pay attention and use what I know about probability to choose the next bets. The AP guys will scoff, but I don't care.  :smile:

I prefer the even chances because of the symmetry; it's easy to know where you are at any time and where you have to get to in order to reach your target.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 10, 2011, 04:54:30 PM
Quote from: Bayes on December 10, 2011, 10:15:43 AM
I prefer the even chances because of the symmetry; it's easy to know where you are at any time and where you have to get to in order to reach your target.

Once you understand and prove to yourself the bets on the layout
are all equal, the EC's is the only sane way to play. Yes, the dozens
pay more, but you also lose more. The EC's are balanced and dependable,
and there are lots of them on a roulette layout. You can make at least
a dozen more using the streets, than just the R/B, H/L and O/E.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: bombus on December 10, 2011, 05:39:53 PM
 :)
Almost everyone knows all the layout bets boil down to the same odds, but I can't agree that makes the EC's the 'only sane way to play'. And if they are then surely the available layout EC's should be enough to do the job. Adding in combinations of streets, dozens & streets, etc, will complicate the game beyond the desired balanced and dependable nature of the layout EC's not to mention the added complication in staking. If you bet the sixlines everything is X3, if you start betting on streets everything is X6. Where do you stop?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: cheese on December 10, 2011, 08:39:58 PM
You bet 3 double streets to get same outcome as betting an EC. I
don't do it, but I could. Its the sane way to play because the EC's
are balanced and uncomplicated. When you sit down and play for
real money, complication is the last thing you want.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on December 11, 2011, 12:42:16 AM
Quote from: cheese on December 10, 2011, 04:54:30 PM
the EC's is the only sane way to play.

that's a pretty bold statement, buddy Cheese... ;)
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ll l ll l lll ll on December 13, 2011, 01:28:46 AM
Quote from: cheese on December 02, 2011, 09:09:53 PM
Here's something that wasn't copied from Wiki, it comes from
here:  nolinks://nolinks.math.utep.edu/Faculty/mleung/probabilityandstatistics/beg.html (nolinks://nolinks.math.utep.edu/Faculty/mleung/probabilityandstatistics/beg.html)



"The first major accomplishment in the development
of probability theory was the realization that one
could actually predict to a certain degree of accuracy
events which were yet to come."

How is using probability and predicting future events different from gamblers fallacy?
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Bayes on December 13, 2011, 09:49:21 AM
Probability theory does predict future events, but it depends what the 'event' is. If you predict for the event of getting at least 400 heads in 1000 flips of a coin, your prediction will be true. But it won't necessarily be true if you predict at least 4 heads in 10 flips.

What is true instead are the law of large numbers – in the long term, averages of independent trials will tend to approach the expected value, even though individual trials are independent – and regression toward the mean, namely that following a rare extreme event (say, a run of 10 heads), the next event is likely to be less extreme (the next run of heads is likely to be less than 10), simply because extreme events are rare. - wikipedia

The Law of Large Numbers (nolinks://nolinks.probabilitytheory.info/content/item/6-the-law-of-large-numbers-/-the-law-of-averages).
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 14, 2011, 12:42:17 AM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 06, 2011, 08:02:33 PM
Mr J.

I don't really know the dynamics of what you are doing.

But,

when you are referring to "Hot numbers" Do you mean you are playing on biased wheels?

I did not even see this, sorry! I have not yet invented a time machine so no, I did not go back to 1923 to play a bias wheel.


Come on, what are hot numbers? One such example....the same number hitting 3+ times in the LAST 23 spins would certainly be TEMPORARILY 'hot', correct?

Ken
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: ReDsQuaD on December 14, 2011, 12:26:21 PM
Quote from: Mr J on December 14, 2011, 12:42:17 AM
I did not even see this, sorry! I have not yet invented a time machine so no, I did not go back to 1923 to play a bias wheel.


Come on, what are hot numbers? One such example....the same number hitting 3+ times in the LAST 23 spins would certainly be TEMPORARILY 'hot', correct?

Ken

Hi Ken.

I understand. I was just interested to know if you were regarding to bias.

I mean, just because the ball landed on a number 3 times, is this really a hot number? In your view, do you think this means the number will carry on hitting? There is no real reason for the ball to land on the number again "just because its already been hit 3 times" Unless of course we are dealing with a wheel bias.

But other than that...
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Mr J on December 14, 2011, 11:09:36 PM
"I mean, just because the ball landed on a number 3 times, is this really a hot number? In your view, do you think this means the number will carry on hitting? There is no real reason for the ball to land on the number again "just because its already been hit 3 times" >>> You have to be more specific. 3 times in 200 spins? Of course not. 3 times in 18 spins? Sure, TEMPORARILY 'hot'.

"Carry on hitting"? >>> The way I play, after (or during) the 23 spins, if that 'hot' number is no longer hitting, I could careless. That number gets ROTATED out while a different 'hot' number takes its place. I would agree with you *IF* we look back at the last 500 spins and see the #34 has hit the most......lets start betting on it?  NO!

Its a good example of the #34 could (and most likely) is NOT the hot number anymore. I think thats one of the scams used by Rapid Roulette. They post the top 5 hottest numbers from the last 500 spins. USELESS information in my opinion. What I want to see instead......the top 3 hottest numbers from the last 45 spins.

Ken

Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Ulysses on December 24, 2011, 12:18:20 PM
Quote from: ReDsQuaD on December 14, 2011, 12:26:21 PM
Hi Ken.

I was just interested to know if you were regarding to bias.

There is no real reason for the ball to land on the number again. Unless of course we are dealing with a wheel bias.

But other than that...

Other than that... might be due to dealer bias.

Or algorithmic bias in the RNG output.

IMO
Title: beat roulette?!
Post by: anahita on February 27, 2012, 04:28:10 PM
Anybody has heard about "The Roulette Killer System"? my father's friend  found this package on -- LINK REMOVED. READ THE RULES--  [/color]    he said although you obviously won't win every time you play, (that's impossible) but you will win in the long run. The more you play, the more you will win (that's statistic rule). It is written that you will receive full step-by-step instructions (with diagrams) on how to use the system and you should be able to have the system memorized after one or two sessions at a casino. I wanted to know if anybody has used it before? and if yes do you suggest me?

thanks in advance
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: Steve on February 27, 2012, 07:01:24 PM
roulette killer is a scam and it has been discussed many times.
Title: Re: Its All About PROBABILITY
Post by: iggiv on April 15, 2012, 01:36:52 AM
most of roulette bots or betting software do not work on a long run.