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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 14, 2009, 01:23:52 AM
Played a session last night - made $1000 using $50 units (not real money :( ) over 5 shoes with a target of about 5 units per shoe (I say "about" because of the 5% commission etc). One shoe provided almost no triggers. I suspect one of the keys to playing this method like any other is to not play too many shoes.
I used the method outlined in reply #9. Felt pretty comfortable playing too - the deepest I went into the progression was 2.5. If I had to go further I'm trying to decide whether to wait for another trigger after maybe 4 or 5 losses or do something else like cap the bets at 4.5. Time will tell. Going to keep testing/playing and see how we go long term.
Cheers

Roules (should change my name to Bacs  ::) )

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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 14, 2009, 08:15:16 AM
Lol. No sooner after writing that post I played a session that didn't go as well. Things did recover but it's got me thinking about the progression, which has to be well structured to suit the bet selection (of course you say :) ). I like the idea of moving up a unit or half a unit at a time and using D'alemebrt, but I'm trying a different bet selection also. Don't mean to hijack your thread here by changing the goal posts but I think it will bring similar results.

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hermes

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Re: my method of playing
June 14, 2009, 06:09:27 PM
Guys try to use the Carsch progression it works good on ECs. 1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14-21-32. Easy to use: after 2 losses in row ad 1 unit, after 2 wins in row subtract 1 unit. Win/Loss no change.
You lose 2 first hands bet still 1 unit, lose another 2 hand bet 2 units, after this won 2 hands in row go 1 unit down. Holds lot of bad hands.
Cheers Hermes

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 15, 2009, 08:06:29 PM
You cant  add subjectivity for a mechanical system tho subjectivity is a good thing to have but thing is I could test the same shoe as you and come out with a differant result because of your or mine subjectivity but that wont prove if a method will work or not

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 15, 2009, 10:25:13 PM
I am going to test 50 shoes before I post any details on this idea for recovery. I know that 50 isn't a lot but there have been too many times where I have posted an idea and it failed after a few shoes of testing. So I need to get a little more to back the idea up.

I should have the 50 shoes done by the end of the week at the longest.

I believe that the method of play should work on choppy shoes because of the capping bets.
I also believe that it should work on streaky shoes because it has a streak recovery built in as well.
I also believe that the progression will be controlled because Marven's 5 level staking plan is non-explosive especially when used with solid bet selection.

I will give an update every 10 shoes.

I should hopefully be done the first 10 shoes within the next 1-2 hours.
I will post the stats soon.

Let me know when you have your idea down pat I and maybe others could eventually help in the testing and why did you go away from your original 3 cap I thought you were having some good results with it did you catch some bad shoes

All we needed to have is a controlled progression stop loss and BR requirements

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rjeaton1

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 01:14:12 AM
I can honestly say I know absolutely nothing about the game of Baccarat.  However, it looks as though Baccarat is a game where you can make even money bets.  If that's true, and you guys are still looking for a decent progression I can suggest one (whether or not it will help, but I'm trying anyway, haha).

You can check it out here: http://vlsroulette.com/money-management/the-midas-touch/

I just recently suggested this to somebody in the roulette area, as they were looking for a decent progression that wasn't terribly scary for even money outside bets.  I have tried this progression with even money bets myself and have had great success with it (although nothing is foolproof). 

Hope it helps guys, and I hope I didn't disrupt anything.

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rjeaton1

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 01:15:45 AM
Hey there John, I just posted the post above, and then I noticed right above my post you mentioned that you deleted a bunch of your posts.  If you think what I just posted goes against what you were shooting for on this thread feel free to remove.

If you try it however, and have some success, go ahead and put it back up (if you want, haha).

Sorry again if I threw anything in this thread off kilter.

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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 08:17:57 AM
Just did a test of 30 shoes using the 3 cap method, with a slight difference. I played each progression until a win and stopped, instead of playing until in profit. I tried 3 progressions:
Up half a unit on a loss and down half on a win
Up one unit on a loss and down one on a win 
Up one unit on a loss and keep it there(never back down). eg a LW sequence like LLWLWWWLW would translate to (units bet) 123344445
Aka the aggressive D'alembert

Using $10 units always, mini-bac tables (40+/- hands excluding ties), commission not taken out. After 30 shoes:
Using the half unit progression +$310
Normal progression  +$290
Aggressive progression -$70

The last 3 hands were shockers and shows how much damage can be done. This was based on playing the original prog in this thread only to 8 levels. The aggressive progression wins a lot more of course, the drawdown can be bad but generally isn't. Only four shoes came out negative and that was for all progressions. That the aggressive prog came out only -$70 is pretty good, the worst shoe it cost $1600 (160 units). You can imagine where it would of been without that one big loss though.

Actually - even a martingale prog came out +150 on these shoes. Limiting to only 3 or 4 bets could be key. It almost wins flat betting on these shoes (it would of if it weren't for commission!)
It hit on the following:
1st  65
2nd 37
3rd 14
4th 3
5th 5
6th 1
7th 0
8th 1
9th 1

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 04:28:11 PM

I just had a quick look at the progression. It seems very interesting. I like how you try to win a set amount within 4 bets. I think that this can be used as a recovery to the capping bet then the streak bet, or maybe just the capping bet, because it seems to safely limit the amount of betting that you do. I have been trying to think of a progression that would limit the amount of bets that are needed to recover.

I have to go somewhere now so I do not have time to really think about it, but I am going to look more at this progression later tonight.

Thanks for sharing.

Would be much slower tho maybe you may not even get you win mark in a good shoe even

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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 05:17:12 PM
Quote
Was the worst shoe played with the aggressive progression or the half unit progression?
Tested all shoes with all 3 progressions. It's not really worth it as you can see though it averages out to barely one unit per shoe. I just ran that test to see how things would go.
N9 is right too it's a very slow way to go. It might be worth testing, you need a lot of time and patience to use it. I think Lanky says you only need a 40something% win rate for it to win but. I will look at Hermes prog as well. I really like this bet selection

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 06:46:11 PM
I think the 6 point divisor would go good  but you have to remember the 6 point divisor is more of a grind MM strategy so even with that your win per shoe may not even get to 6 but would be safe and maybe average 3 or 4

The problem if it is one which really it isnt is that with the Capping method you don't bet on every decision in the shoe

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 16, 2009, 07:08:57 PM
Yes you could do it any divisor you wanted and still use the safety brake but dont forget you are after a good MM a good bet selection and you need an MM to carry you thru the bad streaks it isnt uncommon for EC bets to go 12.13.14 times or more losses and the win and streak again

Maybe Try twice  with a 1.2 type of bet then stop and wait for next cap to bet again maybe you need bet it 3 timeslike BBBpB then bet here three times for B that way you get the chop because this scenario of BBBPBPB then play the chop  there are so many scenarioS and this is the reason why  this game is hard to win against

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 17, 2009, 01:15:15 AM
I did some testing using the divisor idea and it held up very well, although I need to add a definite system of safety nets. But for not having a great plan for safety nets it did great.

Even when the progression for the divisor begins to get high it still only needs to win 2-3 bets to recover most of the time. I think that 2-3 bets is reasonable. In my testing (without a good safety net plan) the highest bet I have made has been 2.5 units and that was once or twice in a handful of shoes.

I have also noticed that there are less bets being made which should mean less commission going to banker bets.

I have a basic idea of how I want to work the divisor recovery and I have some safety net ideas that I am going to work on tomorrow. The divisor method is showing a lot of potential. So I am going to end on a good note and work on it more tomorrow, maybe some more ideas will come in my sleep.

you are preaching to the converted as far as the
divisor plan goes for me 

You need thanks the Lankster for converting alot on here to the divisor method there are many ways of using it too you could bet normal to a certain loss then use the Divisor methods for recovery

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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 17, 2009, 06:36:53 AM
Hey John,
You had it with your first idea I reckon, up half a unit at a time. I doubt you'll get more than 5 or 6 units out of a shoe using a mechanical system and backing the chops if they come? Still makes it mechanical. Cut the losses after 3 or 4 bets I say - anything more isn't common (from testing - and I said empirical results were worthless lol).

Is playing the way you do, ie continuing until in profit worthwhile over playing just 3 or 4 hands?

Grand martingale(3 step - 1,5,20) or similar makes a lot more profit if you were brave enough to use it, but it depends if you want to grind safely along small profits or go for a bigger prize :).
Wondering how this would go with roulette and craps......

I'm going to choose a progression to go with this bet selection (which I'm liking - thanks again for posting) and play when I can over the next week or two at Dublinbet. My balance is I think is about #2400 (play money). We'll see what happens  

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Diarmaid

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Re: my method of playing
June 17, 2009, 03:25:50 PM
Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.

I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.


Thanks
Diarmaid