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Nathan Detroit

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Re: my method of playing
June 05, 2009, 04:16:17 AM
John1234,



Just  for  information. NOT an endorsement   . 

The Guetting progression.

http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics03.html

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 06, 2009, 07:49:21 PM
Looks to be going well

do another test play to the end ofthe shoe my theory if it wins it wins doesnt matter whether play to end of shoe or not

Regards Rodney

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roules

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Re: my method of playing
June 07, 2009, 03:59:35 AM
Hi John,

As you said it's probably not a new method as far as the bet selection goes but it's new to me and it looks pretty good.

To limit losses you could stop betting after four losses then wait for another trigger to bet? And also you could set a stop loss of around 10-20 units. The less shoes-played-to-recover the better in my opinion.
Also for progressions, I sometimes like to use an aggressive d'alembert, up one unit as you lose and never back down. You can also use this as more of a recovery method and lower the unit value if/when it recovers if you like to play it safer.

Just went over about 30 shoes before and the worst it did was -3 and -4 on a couple of shoes. Made +6 units most shoes, the ones that didn't, didn't really have enough time as they were mini-bac shoes(40-50 hands)
Cheers

GARNabby

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Re: my method of playing
June 07, 2009, 03:30:09 PM
John1234,

You need the trigger to avoid the four losses to begin with.  Then you'll have it, period.

Interesting post.

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John1234

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Re: my method of playing
June 07, 2009, 04:19:22 PM
I finished all of the shoes that Natural 9 posted late last night. I just had to calculate the profits and now I will post the shoes.

Profit From Shoes 31-40: $900 I had one losing Shoe which was -6 units. I lost at the very end of the shoe.

Profit After 40 Shoes = $4,240


Total from shoes 41-50=  $1170

Total profit for 50 shoes=  $5,410.00




I only had one shoe out of the 50 where I did not profit. That shoe came somewhere between shoes 31-40. That was -6unit loss. But the results seem good. My base bets were 20 dollars and sometimes 30. So if you are betting 100 dollar base units then you will make a lot more obviously.


I played all of the shoes the way that I presented, to a point. Not every shoe is the same so it is hard to always play the exact same way for every single shoe.


Later I am going to look into ways to improve the method.

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Trung

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Re: my method of playing
June 08, 2009, 12:52:40 AM
I start thinking about baccarat, John.  ;) Whats a post!!! Thank you very much for your hard work.  Keep it up and happy winnings!
Best Regard,
Trung

GARNabby

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Re: my method of playing
June 08, 2009, 06:38:16 PM
John1234,

I mean for you to invert your system (picks) just before the losses come.

In my experience, and theorizing, wins and losses slowly average out after one quickly pulls ahead of the other. So the questions become, when are the wins/losses coming; and to which extent. I think you need to develop a now-ish (improvised) form of cause and effect.  These outcomes all occur in the now, randomly, but never completely independently of the past and future. (Because randomness is not perfectly its own entity, and certainly not in our even-less perfect realm.)

I'm currently beginning working on this problem, myself.  By looking at some underlying levels of surge in the ever-changing streams of P-B outcomes. Specifically at how also the longer patterns are evolving, alongside the shorter. (You'll likely need to look up the physics definition of 'surge' if you want to pursue that.)

But the biggest advantage to having an inversion system-control variable, or trigger/stopper, is something like as no shoe will never come out, eg, all B's, nor will any mechanically-fixed system ever come out all W's:  Playing banker each and every game wins on average very-slightly more than half but mixing up the P's and B's at least allows for the possibility of more-fully matching those to the usual outcomes, by design or even luck.  Which indirectly implies that given any fixed patterning system is going to Win half, and Lose half, invert it half the time to create the possibility of Winning every game with the "same" methodology all along. (Don't worry if this extension doesn't make any sense... right now I'm not sure it should, or would then even be of value.)

Not to "steal your thunder" john1234, may I invite you or anyone here with some history of posting to register at a new free site I have started for new systems, and their further development. (Simply because I prefer to post my "nonsense" in a more-controlled setting.)


GARNabby

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Re: my method of playing
June 08, 2009, 08:39:54 PM
John1234,

Thanks for your interest.

I forgot to say that i too hope anyone interested in any board continues to post there. It's important that each board develop a style of its own with its own talent. There's nothing in it for any of us to compete with the others here. (Let's just beat the casinos.)

But if and when the final break-through comes, it would better serve us to try to co-ordinate ourselves a little more discretely.

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 09, 2009, 12:46:47 AM
I tested some more shoes playing with my bet selection using Marven's 5 Level Staking Plan as described in a few posts above.

Everything is still going great.
-I have been making my profit faster
-There is less of a drawdown when I enter a choppy period.
-The bets have not been as high. The largest bet that I have made in all of my testing so far has been 3 units.
-I have not had one losing shoe yet. And every shoe I make between 5.5 units to 6.5 units.

I am no longer going to post testing results. It seems kind of pointless to do that now. I will just keep them saved on my computer.

All of my posts from now on will be updates, if anybody is reading and interested.

Awesome stuff mate keep it up how many shoes do you think we should test

Regards Rodney

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 09, 2009, 01:27:32 AM
John I have another suggestion dont know if it would improve things or not

If you get to your desired stop  win in a particular shoes say within 30 -40 hands play it till you get like 2 or three losses in a row it may heklp etch out a few more units  The reason i say it is the trend can be  your friend

I asked a friend of mine if he has a good betting strategy that doesnt lose too much in a row(was thinknig using Lankys divisor strategy on it )he said he had a good one but it has lost 14 times in a  row then won then lost  another 10 times this can happen with EC bets

Also with your staking plan you need to test some of  the good shoes out as well because sometimes new staking plans can affect the good shoes to the detriment as well

I going to test this baby out for quite a number of shoes like to see how it performs under real pressure and if it has a failure point to me 50 shoes are not enough to know whether it is a long term winner it looks like dont get me wrong but i have had system before the perform well short term untill that session from hell happens

anyhow regards mate

Rodney

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hlkhoo

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Re: my method of playing
June 09, 2009, 07:41:01 AM
Hi John,
Firstly, I wanna thank you for sharing this wonderful system.
After reading your posts, I tried this on few of the live
shoes I'd recorded in the past and there's one particular shoe
I think it could be the nemesis of your method. I'm not sure
and I could be wrong. Can you show us here how would you
play this shoe? thanks - hlkhoo

P
P
B
P
P
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
B
B
P
P
P
P
P
B
P
P
P
P



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hlkhoo

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Re: my method of playing
June 09, 2009, 09:39:50 PM
Hi John,
Thanks for playing the shoe and everything looks great up to this point.
Just a quick question. In your reply, you recorded the first 4 losses in a row (LLLL)
and based on my observation, shouldn't this be 3 losses and 1 win (LLLW)?
Let me elaborate more.

Your Reply:-
P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110
By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.

My observation:-

P LLL Bet 20 P -90
P LLL
W Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110 By this point there are 4 losses in a row. So now I will begin to bet the chops.

At LLL we bet P and the next outcome is P, therefore it should read as LLLW?
If my assumption is correct, then we will never bet the chops since we don't have 4 losses in a row.
If that was the case, do you still come out ahead in this shoe ? Can you show us how you play?

Thanks
hlkhoo

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hlkhoo

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Re: my method of playing
June 10, 2009, 05:48:23 AM
Hi John,
Thank you for such a detail explanation. I'm following every single bit of it except for this section:-

B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.   
B L Bet 20 B -70  1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total -->hlkhoo For the next result, you are betting P. We got it right. But it was recorded as a lost i.e. LLL. Shouldn't it be LLW
P LLL Bet 20 B BET CHOPS -110, 3 staking bets lost. Now 5 total, bet chops.
B LLLW Bet 20 P -90
P LLLWW Bet 40 B -70
B (L)LLWWW Bet 60 P -30
P W +30 Stop betting goal of +0.5-1+ made.

I know it's kinda hard to visualize everything in just plain writing but just wanna you to know I do appreciate your time and patience in helping us.
Thanks

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Natural9

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Re: my method of playing
June 10, 2009, 08:28:50 PM
To have a successful method of play, I believe that certain elements are needed. I have some elements, and others I am still in search of.

1.) Self-Discipline- This component lies within the win goal and paying attention to bet sizes in relation to the win goal. Sometimes you do not want to try to overdo it. Also, I have found that whenever I can't walk away, I lose all of my profit, + some. Also you need discipline to sit there and wait for capping mode.

2.) Flexibility- In my last post I wrote something about how I feel as though a 100% mechanical system will not always be successful. That is why it is important to have a flexible way of betting and recovering.

-I think that I sort of have this component with the different modes of play. But it wouldn't hurt to strengthen this component.

3.) Bankroll- for obvious reasons.

4.) Saftey- This is a component that I was struggling to achieve at the beginning of the thread. Originally I only had the win limit per shoe, which goes hand in hand with self-dicipline. But I was missing the safety of  money management. I think that Marven's Staking Plan has added a great deal of safety to the method because the bets are non-explosive.
First it makes sense to give less money to the casino when you are losing. This is why I do not want a negative progression. Marven't staking plan allows you to keep the money for when you really need it. With the last progression I would sometimes lose as much as $320 when recovering.
Second- By paying attention to your bet sizes in relation to your win goal, even more safety is achieved. For instance when you should be betting 80dollars but you only need 40 dollars to achieve your recovery win goal then I prefer to bet 40 because it helps to reduce the explosiveness of the betting to a greater degree.  I never liked Up as you win progressions until I found Marven's staking plan.


5.) Bet Selection: I like the bet selection of the capping method followed by the second bet to recover. I also like the bet selection of betting the steaks. However I want to focus on the bet selection when a choppy period presents itself within the recovery mode in the shoe. Recovery Bet Selection still needs some work.

So I have most of the components that I feel are important. There could possibly be a few that I am missing but these are a few off the top of my head. So what I need to focus on most include (recovery bet selection) and (flexibility).

your nemisis pattern is identified as chops  maybe play after this scenario BPB or PBP things is the more you switch the less profitable it could become

 There can be some quite choppy shoes out there and the problem with switching as I have found in other methods I have tested is when you switch the shoes switches back in other words you get out of sync with the shoe I have noticed it in testing methods like the Baccarat code


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hlkhoo

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Re: my method of playing
June 10, 2009, 10:07:52 PM
Hi John,
I think I fully understood your method of play by now. Based on the examples you shown here,
it seems the bet selection is constantly "moving" i.e. switching between chops & dominant and
within the chop or dominant itself, there's no fix and hard rules. For example, at a start, a streak
of 3 or more and then break by a single chop is consider as dominant and you would start betting
on the dominant side.
However, towards later of the shoe, when you failed the chop series, you would start betting
on the dominant side even though the streak is a short one i.e. 2 banker and this contradicts with
the 1st rule i.e. 3 or more = dominant.
With all respect, to me, I think you are "adjusting" the bet selection just to make the shoe comes out
ahead. It's easier to do this when we have the full shoe posted. However, in real play in the casino,
we really don't know when should we consider better a dominant side. Do we consider a streak of
2 dominant? Or streak more than 3 is dominant?
Furthermore, the betting rules for this shoe can never be applied to others shoes because each
shoe will have their own patterns & characteristic. Just my humble opinion.

Also, I think I've spotted some mistakes.

B Bet 20 P
B L Bet 30 B -20
P L Bet 20 P -50, 2 pre staking bets lost. Now enter staking plan and bet 20.   
B L Bet 20 B -70  1 Staking bet lost. Now 3 total
P LL Bet 20 P -90 2 staking bets lost. Now 4 total
P LLW Bet 20 P -70
B LLWL Bet 20 B -90  1st staking bet lost
P LLWLL Bet 20 P -110 2nd staking bet lost
B (L)LWLLL bet 20 B 3rd staking bet lost -130
P (LL)WLLLL Bet 20 B 4th staking bet lost. Betting chops -150

B (LLW)LLLLW Bet 20 B -130
B  (LLWL) LLLWW Bet 40 B -110 -->We lost 4 chops in a row. We start betting dominant even though it's a short streak?
P (LLWLL)LLWWL Bet 40 B -150 (since B is dominate bet for B now.* I will explain after the shoe)
B (LLWLLL) LWWLW Bet 60 B -110 -->We bet B here. The next hand is P. It should be a lost, but was recorded as a win
P (LLWLLLL) WWLWW bet 80 B -170
B (LLWLLLLW) WLWWW Bet 80 B -90
B (LLWLLLLWW) LWWWW drop bet to 40 B, -10
B Win +30 stop
P Bet 20 B
B Win +50
B
P
B
B

Anyway, thanks for your time and no worries. You may not have re-post the shoe again. I fully
understood how you played and I can tried it out here on my own. My best wishes goes to you
and family and happy winning.

Cheers
hlkhoo