Reducing Volatility @ TwoCatSam

[rob567]

Sam

In WannaWins system the math is simple, he has left 3 squares open. Essentially creating 3 zeros for the house. the rest equals out due to mathemematical balance. He is using a static mechanical system. If you add a dynamic element then things can change. but I doubt sufficently to overcome the house edge.

In my example it is a bit more complex.

In the larger dataset incorporating the thrown out numbers the house edge remains 5.26%. But due to the structure of the bets a portion of the numbers are negated in their impact, essentially throwing them out of the dataset for values. Yet they are still incorporated into the numbers accounted for in the permutation dataset. So in reality n=all numbers, but after neutral value bets are elliminated n=(all numbers - neutral numbers) when plotting volatility for bankroll. Yet the number of zeros remains the same in this dataset as in the other. This is what increases the house edge.

Monte Carlo

[TwoCatSam]

Gimme a couple of days on that one!

Thanks, MC................

[bloomone2002]

MC
I've been racking my brain on this. but I think im closing in on what you are talking about by applying principles I've been using in the lottery games, particularly the permutations types.
Basically one has to build a matrix of various series groups of numbers based upon the board/wheel layout. In a way the GPM matrix in part is a very balanced a may play a part also. Im not sure because I just starting reading about GPM from the forums. Maybe Kimo Li can help with this also.
Bloom

[bloomone2002]

Ok, here goes. My first attempt at creating the matrix series. You can modify it or change the coding as you wish. MC. I think you are on to something. Let me know if I am on the right track. If I am watch watch out.

     1      2      3      4      5
rlo   1      3      5      7      9
rho      19      21      23      25      27
rle      12      14      16      18      0
rhe      30      32      34      36      0
                             
blo      11      13      15      17      0
bho      29      31      33      35      0
ble      2      4      6      8      10
bhe      20      22      24      26      28

Version 2
I think this one is a little more balanced
     1      2      3      4      5
rlo      1      3      5      7      9
rle      12      14      16      18      0
rho      19      21      23      25      27
rhe      30      32      34      36      0 (zero or double zero)
                             
ble      2      4      6      8      10
blo      11      13      15      17      0
bhe      20      22      24      26      28
bho      29      31      33      35      0 (zero or double zero)

Bloom

[rob567]

bloomone2002

A matrix is a good way to understand it. But start out simpler and work up.

Lets start with EC since its what I have used so far as a sample because of it's simplicity.

Matrix

red      |    odd
-  -    -   -
black   |   even

now limit your bets to either (red and odd) or (black & even)

Think about it for awhile and tell me what is happening. It's better if you learn by working it out. Then you will understand it and can apply it to other areas of the board.

Monte Carlo

[bloomone2002]

Great!, I understand the concept.
My version 2 Matrix chart is all EC. It is a tighter version. It incorporates all ECs

Matrix

red      |    odd  | High
-  -    -   -
black   |   even  | Low

but i do see what you are talking about with the simplicity. However, I've been down this road before with lottery permutation games. So, I will look at it from the simple way and the integrated way Ive created here. I know this has been an effort to open our eyes to this. I think you are on to something.

[rob567]

bloomone2002

If you are talking about a powerball type of lottery then this won't wok. You can't interpolate the bets because each bet it independent.

Monte Carlo

[bloomone2002]

bloomone2002

If you are talking about a powerball type of lottery then this won't wok. You can't interpolate the bets because each bet it independent.

Monte Carlo

Nope, Im not you are correct, those are combinational for pick 5 and above, I'm talking about permutations type...pick3 and 4. I think we on the same page.
Bloom

[bloomone2002]

Updated Integrated Matrix Format

Color      O/E_L/H      Row      Sectors      Subgroup      col 1      col 2      col 3      col 4      col 5      
Red      x1      1      A1      rlo      1      3      5      7      9      
Red      x1      2      B1      rle      12      14      16      18      0      
                                                                 
Red      y1      3      A2      rho      19      21      23      25      27      
Red      y1      4      B2      rhe      30      32      34      36      0      0_0
                                                                 
Black      x2      5      B3      ble      2      4      6      8      10      
Black      x2      6      A3      blo      11      13      15      17      0      
                                                                 
Black      y2      7      B4      bhe      20      22      24      26      28      
Black      y2      8      A4      blo      29      31      33      35      0      0_0





Now that I am looking a this it can probably be used for ECs and straights. You can also apply this version to the complex or simple EC.

example:
so MC if you play now limit your bets to either (red and odd) or (black & even)  as suggested. This would be the following:
red & odd= row 1 and 3
black & even= row 5 and 7

Ah, now I can visually see that if you play red&odd or black&even, you have more numbers than if you played red&even or black&odd, when playing ECs or Straights.

sorry this chart didnt line up good. But I think this is as far as I can take the chart. Now hopefully this can spur some application ideas. Personally I think this chart be productive, however, I am open to any other modifications or variations we can chart and track. Maybe Kimo Li's GPM's can add a little favor or maybe that would be overkill or maybe GPM could be another chart type similar to one above. I'm just throwing out ideas to fuel the creative juices. I know cps10 know where I am going with this. Maybe he can jump in with some bet selection and progression (flatbet, slight or pluscoup) criteria.
Bloom

[rob567]

bloomone2002

I wouldn't be so concerned about which numbers are connect to the three EC's. It doesn't matter. Though the result is driven by an initial selection based on the number spun. The choice of what to do isn't related to the actual number draw but rather related to laws of distribution within the EC bets. Permutations of the multiple simulatious bets would negate the ability to say if a 17 is spun then you should be on these 5 numbers. A 17 could be spun resulting in either bet following depending on other criteria within the stucture of your system. What I am showing you here isn't a system in itsself but rather a method of exploiting a limited dataset though interpolation.

Monte Carlo

[bloomone2002]

MC, thanks for responding

bloomone2002

I wouldn't be so concerned about which numbers are connect to the three EC's. It doesn't matter.  (Ok, but it matters more with straights than with ECs?)

Though the result is driven by an initial selection based on the number spun.
The choice of what to do isn't related to the actual number draw but rather related to laws of distribution within the EC bets. (What is the laws of distribution? and how do we relate it to EC bets?)

Permutations of the multiple simulatious bets would negate the ability to say if a 17 is spun then you should bet on these 5 numbers. A 17 could be spun resulting in either bet following depending on other criteria within the stucture of your system. (Yeah, I wouldn't call the matrix I created a system, but a structure that can be manipulated in multiple methods to be used as a system. Therefore, it is only a tool. I did apply it to a sample test using straights successful. Maybe, this Matrix tool is more appropriate for Straights.
Series Sample test

1,      27       A2
2,      32      B2
3      21      A2
4      35      A4
5      31      A4
6      30      B2
7      10      B3
8      21      A2
9      20      B4      bet B1
10      11      A3      L-5 or I could have bet A1&B1 here
11      12      B1      w31= 26 units or w 27 units (A1 hit 9 spins later)

Anyway, back to EC bets.)

What I am showing you here isn't a system in itsself but rather a method of exploiting a limited dataset though interpolation. (Ok, please breakdown this method of interpolating the limited dataset as it relates to EC bets. Seems like a form of curve fitting or regression analysis, which with an intelligent program, especially a Neural Net can be outfitted very well. However, from a very basic manual application by the user, how can this be applied? What are our dependent and independent variables? Etc... How do you recommend applying the variables? Geez, I don't know if I'm on track with my line of questions. I only have a limited understanding of these concepts. So a sample application for ECs will be very effective and appreciated...i.e a chart, graph, etc..)
Monte Carlo

Going back over previous post about a series and combining we have the following formations associated with the spins, which in theory will reduce the volatility because, when focusing only on the R/B even though statistically it is 50/50 over the long run, in a short session, Red could occur 20x consecutively. It has a much higher likelihood than if we were looking for Red & Odd to occur 20x consecutively. So, the volativity of change factor is reduced. However, are not dealing with 50% of the field at this point, but closer to 25%, We would have to wait for a dataset opportunity, where this R/O series has a 50% probability rather than a 25% probability, but then you have said in a previous post that we could bet almost every bet and this reasoning does not provide that flexibility. So, im probably shoot some blanks.

Matrix

red      |    odd
-  -    -   -
black   |   even

now limit your bets to either (red and odd) or (black & even)


Monte Carlo

Ah, ok maybe, it is like the following example:
if 2 consecutive R/Os occur or 2 in 3, it is a higher change that the next spin is B

Limited dataset example
3
9, play B

Short Session (incorporating all ECs: R/B_O/E_H/L)

29BOH
31BOH, play REL
12REL, hit
5ROL
23ROH, play BE
10BEL, hit

Sample Series: Dominant or Consecutive
R consecutive series =ok, RE consecutive series =stronger, REL consecutive series= strongest

I'm done. Please step in MC.

Ok, I lied, heres another series, incorporating for EC or straights, depending upon application, thereof, implementing street filtering as part of the series:

31BOH (street11)
33BOH (street11)
22BEH (street 6), play RL
12REL (street 4), hit

MC, if I'm not on the your track, I'm think I am definitely on to something here, and I just opened the door. There is much more here. Anyway, please MC, please give more specific details. Conceptual and philosophical lingo is cool. Let's get to the instructions with examples.
Thanks
Bloom

[TwoCatSam]

Gang........

I have spent several hours working on the math of this beast and I've yet to figure out what MC means by reducing volatility by 50% and increasing house edge by 50%.

Anytime Red or Black cancels each other out, you have done nothing but expose yourself to the zero.  

Bloom,  I will study your thoughts on it, but I am at a stalemate.

Sam

[rob567]

Bloomone2002 and TwoCatSam

I keep thinking that I am explaining this simple enough. I will have to think about it some more about an easier way to explain. This is only one part of the expression, the next ones are even more confusing.

Monte Carlo

P.S. I made a technical error in my language. It's based on extrapolation not interpolation. It's a fine line. I research using the one and work pactically with the other.

[bloomone2002]

Bloomone2002 and TwoCatSam

I keep thinking that I am explaining this simple enough. I will have to think about it some more about an easier way to explain. This is only one part of the expression, the next ones are even more confusing.

Monte Carlo

P.S. I made a technical error in my language. It's based on extrapolation not interpolation. It's a fine line. I research using the one and work pactically with the other.

Geez, extrapolation is totally different!. How many parts are their to the entire expression?
Also, if you are looking for a simplier way to impart the knowledge. It would be through a simple application sample.
In the meantime I will be rethinking these concepts within an extrapolating construct.
MC, enough explaining this initial part, give an example. i.e. A1+b= A1B.

ok, here is my 3rd rework on this
Ok, what you are doing is taking a limited dataset and determining what is the trend for the most likely event on the next spin, but in order to do that. We must assign to the
Red vs Black, multiple indicators, which establishing more flexibility in our determination of the value and less volativity in within the multiple indicators. The question is what happens most on opposite ends of the curve.
So, that in theory with each limited dataset, we will project what is the resultant that is 80% most likely to occur, within the 50/50 game of which is likely less than a overall 50/50 game due to the zero. So if you get the formula correct from one spin projection to another, then it is a likelihood of 62% hit rate. I don't know if this is correct or not.

Bloom

[rob567]

TwoCatSam

you said:

"Anytime Red or Black cancels each other out, you have done nothing but expose yourself to the zero. "

No you don't play them simultaneously. You play either red or black. It's the permutation with another EC bet that creates the cancelling effect.

Homework:

What are the permutations of red/black and high/low?

Monte Carlo

[rob567]

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