Reality check

[Spike]

Do you use math to win?>>>

Does the casino use math to get money from a bank to build a new casino? Thats all they have is the math, it never lies. If you think you have a winning system, the math will tell you if it is or it isn't, just like it tells the bank.

This isn't brain surgeon material, people. The math involved is stuff you learned in high school. People who say the math is unimportant are either ignorant, in denial, or system sellers. Everybody who has a winning system that beats a casino game can show you the math that makes it a winner.

[rjeaton1]

Everybody who has a winning system that beats a casino game can show you the math that makes it a winner.

What spike is saying is that nobody has ever had a winning system and nobody ever will have a winning system as you can't change math and no matter how you bet the math is always in favor of the casino.

[vix]

What spike is saying is that nobody has ever had a winning system and nobody ever will have a winning system as you can't change math and no matter how you bet the math is always in favor of the casino.

Is that what you are saying spike?

I'd prefer yes or no anwers, that would make things clearer... but maybe that is not what you are trying to do.

[lucky_strike]

Lets talk even money bets and how to apply math and probability with the law of series.

Any takers?

Just curios how many knows and how many who pretend they know...

Cheers

[elmo]

This just seems to keep going around in circles.  It is a fact that in the game of roulette a 2. 7% edge in favour of the casino is constant.  On the 00 wheels it is 5. 4%.  So what is really to debate.  A minority of players win despite this fact and the majority lose because of it.  I don't see how it is productive to harp on about something that is never going to change.

[rjeaton1]

Is that what you are saying spike?

I'd prefer yes or no anwers, that would make things clearer... but maybe that is not what you are trying to do.

Spike has mentioned before many times that any casino can walk into a bank and show them the math and they'll get the loan.

As far as single-zero roulette goes, this is the math they show them (and I'll just use Red/Black as an example)

18 Reds
18 Blacks
1 Zero

Percentage chance of ANY red bet winning is calculated as follows:

Number of outcomes that will produce a win divided by ALL possible outcomes multiplied by 100

18/37 = .4864864864864 (repeating) X 100 = 48.648648648 (repeating)

Percentage chance of ANY black bet winning is calculated the same as above

So, using math, there is NO POSSIBLE WAY to prove you have a winning system.  It's literally impossible....can't be done.

I'm not saying there isn't a winning system.  I'm just saying that you can't prove it using math.

[Spike]

Spike has mentioned before many times that any casino can walk into a bank and show them the math>>

Steve Wynn has said in articles that if you tell him how many customers will come into his casino in a month, he can tell you how much profit he'll make almost to the dollar. Its the math, its the science. Its all set in place, he says his only job is to bring as many people thru the doors as possibe, the rest is a given..

Why do you think its any different for you? A pro BJ player can tell you what his projected profit will be for a month if he plays X amount of hours a day. Its the math, it never lies.

[rjeaton1]

I forgot to mention that the other part of why you can't prove it using math is because it is assumed that the wheel is truly random.

If it is a truly random wheel, no individual bet is ever considered to be more advantageous (mathematically speaking) than any other.

So, those percentages NEVER change regardless of how long you wait, what you're waiting for, certain events to happen, etc.

[rjeaton1]

Spike has mentioned before many times that any casino can walk into a bank and show them the math>>

Steve Wynn has said in articles that if you tell him how many customers will come into his casino in a month, he can tell you how much profit he'll make almost to the dollar. Its the math, its the science. Its all set in place, he says his only job is to bring as many people thru the doors as possibe, the rest is a given..

Why do you think its any different for you? A pro BJ player can tell you what his projected profit will be for a month if he plays X amount of hours a day. Its the math, it never lies.

So, would you please answer Vix with a yes or no answer already?  That's really all she is asking of you.

[elmo]

I'm not saying there isn't a winning system.   I'm just saying that you can't prove it using math. 

Excactly right RJ Eaton.  So I ask myself why do people get so worked up about it.  If it has been like that for the last 150 years and will no doubt continue as such in the future, why argue about it asking for mathematical proof when it would be impossible to do so. 

[lucky_strike]

That will get you no where if you are going to apply math and probability and the law of series.
There is two ways to caculate the law of series.

There is an common distribution where there is more of singles and less of sereis of two and so on.
This is just values and it is an different story how to use the values.

1)))
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Keep going like that...

2)))
Singels has the value of 1 and series no matter size has the value of 1

Here is an exampel where we use alternativ 2)))

RRBBRRBBRRBB R BBRRBBRRBBRRBB R BB = SD 3.0

How to calculate and get the value.
The Statistical Ecart or SD

Above there is 14 series and 2 singles.

Now the first thing is to get the difference between this events, the absolute ecart:

14 - 2 = 12

Now we whant to get the statistical ecart so we add

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

Here is one exampel using alternativ 1)))

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

[rjeaton1]

That will get you no where if you are going to apply math and probability and the law of series.
There is two ways to caculate the law of series.

There is an common distribution where there is more of singles and less of sereis of two and so on.
This is just values and it is an different story how to use the values.

1)))
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Keep going like that...

2)))
Singels has the value of 1 and series no matter size has the value of 1

Here is an exampel where we use alternativ 2)))

RRBBRRBBRRBB R BBRRBBRRBBRRBB R BB = SD 3.0

How to calculate and get the value.
The Statistical Ecart or SD

Above there is 14 series and 2 singles.

Now the first thing is to get the difference between this events, the absolute ecart:

14 - 2 = 12

Now we whant to get the statistical ecart so we add

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

Here is one exampel using alternativ 1)))

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

And that might very well be a winning system.  However, again, the math never considers any one bet any more advantageous than another.  The wheel has no memory and deviations from the norm might very well continue to deviate for much longer than you might think...or they might not...it's random (again, mathematically speaking)

So, using math, the system you just described will still be considered a loser...even if in practice it is actually a winner.

[lucky_strike]

And that might very well be a winning system.  However, again, the math never considers any one bet any more advantageous than another.  The wheel has no memory and deviations from the norm might very well continue to deviate for much longer than you might think...or they might not...it's random (again, mathematically speaking)

So, using math, the system you just described will still be considered a loser...even if in practice it is actually a winner.

Above is not a system its how you messure the random flow and the law of series.
Does any one know how to apply the law of series and the math and probability?

Cheers

[Gotrek]

Vix, I know you haven't reduced the house edge if you bet on streets.

Even if you cover 8 streets of 12 streets and win, you'll lose in the long run. Sure, you'll win 8 out of 12 times, but the 2 times you lose, you'll lose more than you've won.
Look at the numbers. They are scattered across the wheel. 1, 2 and 3 are not even close. Where is the logic that they should hit more often and you've overcome the house edge?

Instead of this wild goose chase for the Holy Grail and winning systems with math, focus on predicting where the ball will land. There are several ways to do this.
You only have to increase you're accuracy very little (2,7% or 5,4%). That way you overcome the house edge, and that way you win in the long run.

I hope that cleared it up. Yes, VB and DS and so on, is more difficult than betting on streets, but remember that the table is only an illusion.

[rjeaton1]

Above is not a system its how you messure the random flow and the law of series.
Does any one know how to apply the law of series and the math and probability?

Cheers

I know it isn't a system...but I'm assuming that you use it in some way to select your bet.  When you finally place that bet based on what you posted, the math won't ever consider that bet of having a chance of winning any higher or lower than 48.648%.

Now, I'm not saying that it isn't a good way to select your bet.  I'm just saying that when speaking mathematically, it's a waste of time to ever wait for anything to happen before placing a bet.

[rjeaton1]

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