Hot nombers and Bias method

[rjeaton1]

What does that mean?

At spin 500 for example, what makes a number hot?  Are you still taking into account how many times that number has appeared total over all 500 spins?  Or are you only taking into account it's most recent hits?  If you are doing the latter, that is a "spin window"....but I need to know how many spins are in that "spin window".  20 spins, 50 spins, 100 spins, 5 spins...etc.

If you are doing the former (keeping track of how many times each number has appeared total in all spins tracked) then I really have no idea how you're determining what number is hot and which isn't considering it will all even out in a relatively short period of spins.

[rjeaton1]

Maybe you don't refer to it as a "spin window".  Maybe you call it a "cycle" or a "set" or whatever.

But for a number to have appeared 4 times to make it a hot number, you need a second variable....within how many spins must it have appeared 4 times to make it a hot number.  It can't be infinite (each and every spin tracked for the entire time you play).

[rjeaton1]

The only way I can see you using ALL spins to determine hot numbers is to use the 5 numbers that have appeared the most times in all spins tracked.  But, if you do that, then the "appeared 4 times" rule becomes irrelevant.  The rule would then be simply that: A hot number is any number that is up to and including the 5 numbers that have hit the most times in ALL spins.

But, as you can see, you have to pick one rule or the other.  It can't be both.

[gizmotron]

When you use all numbers you get to see the activity of the coldest numbers too. You need all the numbers so you can see when cold numbers wake up. I believe that randomness shows that change is a continuous process.

[rjeaton1]

Bruce, when you get a chance can you let me know what rule you'd like to use for your system?

A number must appear X times in X spins to be hot or using all spins and just selecting the 5 numbers that have appeared the most times.

Or, any other rule that somebody wants to throw out there.  It just has to be an actual rule.

[rjeaton1]

When you use all numbers you get to see the activity of the coldest numbers too. You need all the numbers so you can see when cold numbers wake up. I believe that randomness shows that change is a continuous process.

Even though I already asked, I'll take one last shot at asking you this...what does that mean?

What is your rule?  If you keep track of all spins while playing, what do I do when I get to spin 15,000?  What makes a hot number hot at that point?

I'm seriously not arguing with you.  But if you're going to help Bruce with selecting what makes "hot" numbers "hot", you'll need to actually provide a rule.

It doesn't matter how crazy or complicated it is, I can still code it.  But, as I said, it needs a rule.

[gizmotron]

rjeaton1, I confine all outcomes to a ten hour session where 300 spins is about normal. It takes at least 70 spins to get a few hot numbers showing. After that I will get 150 spins that tend to act normally. The hottest numbers hit above normal. In that 150 spins, that's spin 70 to 220, I get one or two hot numbers dropping off while one or two more are added. It's not uncommon to get three or four hot numbers working in this period. A really good hot number will continue for the rest of the 300 spins and will even go on for 450 spins. It takes a really hard butt to sit there for 15 hours.

So my window is after 70 spins up to 300. I expect two to four hot numbers to pay very good. If I bet on one number at a time, then I'm guessing to get the best one or at least a good one for that 300 spin session. That's why jumping to the hottest number sometimes pays well.

I hope that answers enough.

[rjeaton1]

Thanks Gizmo, that did in fact help.  I really wasn't being argumentative either.  I just truly didn't have any idea what you were trying to get across as "how to play" it.

[berlinerbruce]

The only issue I see (at the moment) is the "record all spins" part.

We'll need to specify a "window" of spins to track for this reason:

If we record all spins, lets say we're at spin 1000.  All 37 numbers will have appeared 4 times at this point.  In fact, they'll proably all have apeared at least 8 times.

So there has to be a set number of spins to be looking for a repeat in.  For instance you constantly keep track of a rolling set of 37 spins or a rolling set of 20 spins...whatever you want.  Then, we examine (on each and every spin) those X number of numbers we have tracked.

If a number has appeared 4 times in THAT set number of spins, then it is added to the bet list.  Once a number is on the bet list, it isn't ever removed unless it is "bumped" by another number that needs to be added.

Hopefully that makes sense...let me know.

Hi lads

wow i only went out to the swings with my daughter,,,,geez you lads HAVE been busy

@RJ1,,,,, by the time we reach a thousand we should be betting on #s that have apeared say 14 times or more

we constantly track all previous spins (well that was my original idea)

and bet on only the # that have shown the most,

there will be draw downs when some # cool down ,but as we bet at all times 1% OF br
we should be able to ride the storm until the new hot numbers come into the bet selection

hope this helps you RJ1

Bruce

[berlinerbruce]

rjeaton1, I confine all outcomes to a ten hour session where 300 spins is about normal. It takes at least 70 spins to get a few hot numbers showing. After that I will get 150 spins that tend to act normally. The hottest numbers hit above normal. In that 150 spins, that's spin 70 to 220, I get one or two hot numbers dropping off while one or two more are added. It's not uncommon to get three or four hot numbers working in this period. A really good hot number will continue for the rest of the 300 spins and will even go on for 450 spins. It takes a really hard butt to sit there for 15 hours.

So my window is after 70 spins up to 300. I expect two to four hot numbers to pay very good. If I bet on one number at a time, then I'm guessing to get the best one or at least a good one for that 300 spin session. That's why jumping to the hottest number sometimes pays well.

I hope that answers enough.

thx for stopping by Gizmotron

strangely enough my first test as you no doudt read was 48-129

maybe were onto something

also dont forget that most wheels will display a bias of some nature and some # will stay in or near to our bet selection due to the bias of the wheel

this is why when I hand tested the spin data  i had ,,, I was unwilling to discard a hot/bias # if it was in say a three # sector wich was part of my bet selection

food for thought,,,,,,maybe this might be a little complex for rx programing because of the flexabiltiy factor

ok thx men,,löök forward to you responce

Bruce

[VLSroulette]

Hello dear friends,

Being a "timeline player", I only call "hot" a number or betting location which is getting more hits than the expected values ON THE CURRENT CYCLE. This is positively accounting for a spin-window approach.

I.e. for a number to be considered "HOT" in my book, it needs to show 2 or more times within the past 37 spins (38 spins American wheel).

The maximum "window" for it to still be considered hot being 37 more spins (another cycle).

Regardless of how many hits a number may have had at a certain point of the window, if it happens to skip 37 spins without appearing, then that number is not eligible as "hot" anymore.

On the other hand, a biased number accounts for the whole spins being considered. RAW values if you wish. The raw counter being obtained <Spins> / 36.

For instance, if a number has shown 4 times within a 111-spin sample. one can say on that spin sample that number is "biased" with +1 "positive" (paraphrasing Spaniard bias player: García Pelayo).
Why do we say it is biased? Because 111 / 36 = 3 which is the raw expected number of shows. As we have 4 shows, it is +1 in positive, with regards of the estimated amount.

Likewise, 5 shows within 111 spins mean +2 "positives" and so on. We use 36 instead of 37 as we want to consider bias in respect to pay rate, not probability.

So the way to attack hot numbers and biased numbers is different to me.

A biased number can qualify as a hot number on a certain spin sample, but a currently cold number which hasn't shown for, say, 144 spins may still be considered biased if it is holding enough "positives".

Of course, such a short sample is only used for illustrating. It is said you need at least 5000 spins to have a grasp of a possible real bias.

The actual spin-length/positives tables used to determine the bias according to Pelayo (based on pay rate, which is what truly interests players looking for profitability) are these:

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and:

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(Thanks to Mekaniko and Grupojoker)

Hope this helps.
Victor

[rjeaton1]

That was an excellent response Victor.  Thanks for the valuable input...yet again.    

I'll have to catch up with Bruce to see which way he wants to go with this.

[berlinerbruce]

That was an excellent response Victor.  Thanks for the valuable input...yet again.    

I'll have to catch up with Bruce to see which way he wants to go with this.

Ok RJ1

lets just stick to the basics first.

we track wheel and as sonn as we have a # that appears 4 times we stick a unit on it

we continue to track wheel until we have 5#s in our bet selection (all having appeared 5 times)

we monitor ALL SPINS,
always betting on the 5 most #s that have appeared

we always use 1% of our BR

ok mate try that!!!!

ive added you to my msn

ok let me know how you go

all the best Bruce

[Shorty]

This is probably the best method to approach roulette, of course, it isn't going to work with completely random numbers; but who says all roulette tables are random? 

[berlinerbruce]

Well I still don't grasp it why not some one would not learn how to predict wish half the ball will hit on the wheel layout.
Then measure scattering behavior "how the ball bounce" then exploit an sector for bias "if there is one" depending on rotor speed and ball type.

Now lets assume you find an sector with 5 pockets hitting an SD of 4.5.
Then there would be an reason why some one would aim for two numbers based upon math and probability.

That is what an advantage is about and that is how some one find an edge.

Cheers LS

Hi lucky

maybe it be best to read the thread from the begining

this has nothing to do with VB or DS

where just trying to take advantage of hot #s and bias


ok thx all the same

Bruce

[berlinerbruce]

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