Short and long-term trends

[bjb007]

Some software I've looked at adopted a simplistic
approach to choosing where to put your chips.

One suggested that if a column had not been hit for
nine spins it was a good place to put a bet.

That's looking only at the short-term picture.

Would you make that bet if you looked at the
long-term results and found that the column
you were about to bet on had received far more
hits in the last 70 spins than the other two?

No use looking only at the short-term trend.

There is also a long-term trend which must be
considered as well.

If a friend told you tht he'd bought some gizmo
and it was the bees knees would you rush out to
buy one?

Depends on how reliable your friend is.

But if two friends recommended the same gizmo
and you considered them both reasonably reliable
wouldn't you have more reason to buy their
recommended gizmo?

Having two indicators before betting is better than
having only one.

And there are usually more than one available no
matter what you're thinking of betting on.

[metalrat]

Why simplistic?
If it works use it I think. When I look at an indicator I know beforehand that it will not work everytime and all of the time.
But it will work some of the time. The trick is not to bet when it is going south.
Consider the "simplistic" example.
When betting a progression using this method track the profits in a graph.
You will notice that there will be periods that it works very well.
And then suddenly it will disappear under the 0 line and your profits have turned into loss.
But if you had had a stoploss system in place, there would have been no problem.
It is of course a little more complicated than this but the theory is clear.
Cheers

[bjb007]

A stop-loss system is also a stop-gain
system since it stops you playing.

And when your stop-loss tell you to
stop -- what then?  You have to start
again at some point.

If you need a stop-loss then it's
time to change the system.

My approach is to limit bets using
indicators so there's no loss or so
that there's a point where the loss
will become a gain.

[metalrat]

Yes, it does stop me playing.
That is the whole point.



Spin 62 is a reference point. A temporary high if you like.
When the profit falls below a certain point, the program stops betting.
It resumes when the last temporary high has been equaled or bettered. There is no guarantee that there will be a recovery. No recovery, no problem since the profit is not eroded by continuing to bet.
This is my approach at the moment.

[bjb007]

I assume the graph above doesn't show a
system with a stop-loss.

So don't know what it proves.

Please explain.

[metalrat]

No it doesn't.
It shows how a session done with my software faired.
What you see are 2 failing progressions. If the stop loss was placed as I just wrote then
you don't have to worry about the system recovering at that moment.
The software continues tracking the spins but goes over to a virtual mode of betting, ie
the actual bets are not placed.
I cannot demonstrate the stop loss at this moment as it is being programmed.
I hope perhaps later this week.

[bjb007]

Whatever the system which produced your
graph it should be possible to find the
conditions that cause the progression to
produce such a big loss and avoid them.

Increases the +$ and avoids stress!

[bjb007]

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