HOW TO AVOID A SEQUENCE

[TwoCatSam]

...."that deaf, dumb and blind kid......sure plays a mean pin ball."

[Spike]

this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>

HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.

[TwoCatSam]

"Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world." .........Spike.

I am going to write this under my laptop, misspelled word and all.

[Spike]

Yeah yeah, relevent, relevant, and I have a college degree. I always misspell certain words and thats one of them. Where do I send the $50 fine?

[kav]

this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>

HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.

Now do you understand why what I wrote before is NOT obvious? It is a revelation indeed, so much so, that you cannot even gasp it.

If the locations of those cities were RANDOM, there would be no maps. Or Any random map would be equally helpful.

Look, this is obviously deep water or you. Stay out or try to understand before commending. Oneliners aren't gonna help you here.

[bombus]

this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>

HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.

You're always moving the goal posts, Spike. Makes it very hard to line up a good shot...

[Spike]

If the locations of those cities were RANDOM, there would be no maps.>>>

Ah, but the cities are NOT random, and reading random is an exacting affair and not random at all. You obviously cannot grasp this. Who's fault is that?

[Tangram]

So what is the significance of personal permanence? Kav, are you saying that you're better off using your personal permanence (history) as a guide to betting rather than the decisions coming from the wheel you're currently playing?

Mathematically it should make no difference. 

[Spike]

>>To understand the concept of personal permanence, first you have to understand and accept the following idea:
Any sets of random spins, taken randomly, from anywhere, from anytime, can form a series of spins, as random as valid as honest and as reliable, as the a series of spins taken from the same roulette wheel. To give an example, this means that if we take randomly spins from different dates, different tables and different casinos all over the world, we can form a series of spins equivalent to a series from the same roulette wheel. This may sound crazy>>

Its not crazy, just wrong. Sorry.. Its what people who have no conception of what random is believe.

[kav]

So what is the significance of personal permanence? Kav, are you saying that you're better off using your personal permanence (history) as a guide to betting rather than the decisions coming from the wheel you're currently playing?

Mathematically it should make no difference. 

Right. It makes no difference. The only difference is that if you record your past outcomes you'll have a much longer history to look at, than the history of the wheel you observe for a few hours or minutes.

[kav]

>>To understand the concept of personal permanence, first you have to understand and accept the following idea:
Any sets of random spins, taken randomly, from anywhere, from anytime, can form a series of spins, as random as valid as honest and as reliable, as the a series of spins taken from the same roulette wheel. To give an example, this means that if we take randomly spins from different dates, different tables and different casinos all over the world, we can form a series of spins equivalent to a series from the same roulette wheel. This may sound crazy>>

Its not crazy, just wrong. Sorry.. Its what people who have no conception of what random is believe.

First you comment that what I say it's obvious.
Then you say it's wrong.
That much for consistency.

Don't act like a smartass. When you do not know or understand something, try to learn, instead of attacking it with your arrogance and ignorance.

What I describe above is mathematically sound and this is basic stuff for knowledgable players. If you don't believe me ask a mathematics professor. Or just try this:
Take the first 10 spins for every Wisbaden table for 20 days. Add the numbers in a predefied order ( day1 table1, table2 table3 , day2 table1 table2 table3.. etc.)
This series of outcomes will form a series equivalent to a series of the same wheel. The law of the third, the law of large numbers, everything you'd observe in the spins of the same wheel are there in the series of spins one creates by adding randomly spins from different wheels from different days.

Try to LEARN something for once.

PS: Spike there is a big difference between being interesting and beeing a curiosity. Both attract attention, but for very different reasons. You are a curiosity, and you shouldn't be proud of it. I don't want any more useless discussion with you, get out of my way.

[Tangram]

I was thinking about this in relation to online casinos and RNGs. I don't know the technical details but I assume an online casino works like this: There is a central server which spits out the random numbers at a rate of say, one per second.

1 - 14
2 - 23
3 - 10
4 - 0
5 - 35
6 - 9
.
.
.

So on the 3rd second the number 10 is generated, on the 5th second no. 35 is generated etc. Now, there is only one stream of numbers coming from the RNG, but my stream obviously depends on when I generate a number (from my pc) which going to be different from a guy on the other side of the world playing on his computer. So you could say that the only "true" data stream is that coming from the source (1 number per second) but no-one actually gets to play this "true" sequence, only intermittent samples of it.  And yet each user, wherever they are, and no matter at what intervals of time they generate their spins, will get a stream which conforms to the expectations ie; all the "laws" of probability will be obeyed.

What I would say though, is that there does seem to be a difference feel to the sequences which come from a real wheel and those coming from an RNG. Whether this difference comes from the fact that an RNG isn't a real wheel (so would you perceive a difference if you were able to play the "true" sequence as above?) or because the "true" sequence is "interrupted" I've no idea.

[Marven]

This series of outcomes will form a series equivalent to a series of the same wheel. The law of the third, the law of large numbers, everything you'd observe in the spins of the same wheel are there in the series of spins one creates by adding randomly spins from different wheels from different days.

Yes, but these "laws" are not what he's looking at/basing his bets upon.

What you are saying is true, but what's being used here is not the global randomness, but the local one, I.e. the current stream of random data generated by the wheel, the aim being the exploitation of the current/constantly-shifting characteristics of that flow.

In other words, by putting these series of outcomes (taken from different sources) together, you are not affecting the global randomness, but you are affecting the local one (which you obviously aren't even considering). In the eyes of an "educated guesser", the current/local data flow coming from one generator is all that really matters as far as reading/betting is concerned.

[kav]

Tangram,

For many reasons, I'd say RNG spins are different than roulette wheel spins and not (only) because they are interupted like you say.

Marven,

I don't give a rat what he is doing. I just explained a concept and replied to his contraticting comments. I'm not into the "guess what's Spikes system" fixation.

I'm not talking only about global randomness. That was the first step in order to go further. The personal permanence is... very personal. Not global.
You seem a very reasonable person. Please read what I wrote independently from anything Spike does - my post has nothing to do with him anyway.

I already said, a full featured analysis of the things I talk about here, would need much more work. I hope I can do it sometime soon.

[Marven]

You seem a very reasonable person. Please read what I wrote independently from anything Spike does - my post has nothing to do with him anyway.

Done. Nothing new to me so far to be honest, but I do hope more people were aware of such basic facts.

I already said, a full featured analysis of the things I talk about here, would need much more work. I hope I can do it sometime soon.

Well in that case, I'm looking forward to it.

[Marven]

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