Whats The Math of Short Term Probability?

[gizmotron]

No you can't.

The chance of you guessing the EC correctly on the next spin remains 18/37 on the single zero wheel.

I don't know why you guys can't grasp that each spin of the wheel is an independent trial.  

In the long run you will find that you can't predict an EC any better or any worse than chance would dictate. (Outside of any statistical significance.)

You don't have to predict it. You only need to do it correctly more times than not. If there is no way to predict something then you must come up with a different reason to be right more times than wrong. That's that zone you are afraid to go.

[winkel]

...
The entire game of Roulette is about winning one single large bet.
...
Playing small stakes to find a working streak at minimums is ridiculous.

I presume you don´t know nothing about roulette.
like this stupid Herb with his repeated phrase of independend spins.

I don´t have to know what comes next, I just have to know where to place my bet.

br
winkel

[Herb6]

Gizmo,

Kelly and I both have powerful simulators that have tested such wild ideas in the past.  This just simply doesnt work.
It is nothing more than a fools folly to continue down this road of chasing trends in the ECs.

[Herb6]

Winkel,

Prove it.  Show us the math. Post the calculations that you are making that support your theory.

[winkel]

Winkel,

Prove it.  Show us the math. Post the calculations that you are making that support your theory.

If you only could read!

There is no math in it, its pure logic.

br
winkel

If you want a proof, lets open a new test-post and let us play as many spins as you want.

[Kelly]

Winkel, yes i know it sound tempting, you are german so i asume you know casinosoft.de, Jôrg Krause, i got his old software, System spieler and you can experiment a lot with win goals and losses.  Even though the logic that a 16 red serie will give you some +12 if you need 3 x red as trigger and only -1 if it appears to be only a 3 serie, it WILL end up negative.  Trust me,  i have spend at least 200 hours trying back and forth with different triggers and trend patterns, even illogical  like RRBRRBRB etc.  The Guetting Marsch follows both series and chops and also groups of 2er series. Also "nasen" pattens etc. It doesn`t work long term, no matter how you twist it.

[winkel]

Winkel, yes I know it sound tempting, you are german so I asume you know casinosoft.de, Jôrg Krause, I got his old software, System spieler and you can experiment a lot with win goals and losses.  Even though the logic that a 16 red serie will give you some +12 if you need 3 x red as trigger and only -1 if it appears to be only a 3 serie, it WILL end up negative.  Trust me,  I have spend at least 200 hours trying back and forth with different triggers and trend patterns, even illogical  like RRBRRBRB etc.  The Guetting Marsch follows both series and chops and also groups of 2er series. Also "nasen" pattens etc. It doesn`t work long term, no matter how you twist it.

How long is long term?

It is all theory, that a strategie or betselection will lose after more spins than a man can play in his whole life.

It just needs one win per day. and I can guarantee this at minimum one more often as you need to stay in plus

br
winkel

[Herb6]

How long is long term?

Answer: How much sand does it take to make a heap?  Short term + short term = long term.

It is all theory, that a strategy or bet selection will lose after more spins than a man can play in his whole life.

The casinos rely on this theory to turn a profit.  They don't build casinos because of the winners.

It just needs one win per day. and I can guarantee this at minimum one more often as you need to stay in plus

This statement tells me where you are on the gambler's experience timeline.  You're at number five.

1. The gambler discovers the Martingale.
2. The gambler falls prey to "gambler's fallacy", events become "due".
3. The gambler begins to realize it isn't working and looks for "just the right progression" to make it work as well as just the right "entry point".  "Sleepers" becomes the new theory.
4. The gambler begins to lower expectations and in an effort to limit losses begins to try for smaller and smaller unit wins.  Begins to believe in "hit and run".  "He also continues to experiment with trying to find, "just the right size of loss limit".
5. The gamblers begins to believe that, "If I just try for one unit per session, then I can win more often than I lose."
6. The disillusioned gamblers begins to ask, "Where do I go when I hit and run?" And, "How long must I stay away before I can begin a new session if I do win?"
7. The gambler faces ruin as he realizes that he can't even win one unit per session in the long run, because there are several sessions where he's never ahead even one unit.

Herb6

[winkel]

Just try me instead of posting the same old stupid posts again and again.

but you are afraid of being proofed stupid.

we can play 10000 spins or more if you like perhaps 100000. Just try me or close your dirty mouth

[Kelly]

Sorry winkel, I have seen it with my own eyes. Everything goes down if you run enough spins on it.  I haven`t said that with a bit of luck and if a man didn`t go to the casino too often might stay a head for a life time.  It could happen, but only with luck and not too many bets placed.  If you got some rules you want me to apply to something, send me an e mail and I run it through systemspieler and 340.000 spins, but I won`t be back before next monday so there is no rush.

Long term = for the EC`s above 50.000 placed bets. The spins must be unknown before the test. You can "easyli" backwards engineer 50.000 placed bets to come out positive. 50.000 placed bets is where the 3 standard deviation treshold runs. Meaning if you out of pure luck had a hit rate that hit +3 standard deviation over 50.000 spins, your bankroll would at this point be 0 due to the zero losses even though you had way more hits than losses.

PS: It also takes forever to do these tests on line and like laurance posted on GG, it would be relatively easy to construct some sort of tracking program that traced the numbers as they came out and searched through all public available databases to find a match and when it did, in the end the person in test would know which permanenzes was being used.

[Herb6]

Winkel,

Try Kelly's simulator.  At the very least you'll get new ideas.

[winkel]

Hi Kelly,

why doesn´t anyone understand? My rules (my intelligence) is not programmable, (perhaps yet)

I offer to play 50000 spins on EC and I will be in front

Anyone is welcome to try me!

br
winkel

[winkel]

Winkel,

Try Kelly's simulator.  At the very least you'll get new ideas.

try me or shut up

[Herb6]

Winkel,

Explain how you want to play it.  For example, if you're playing for just one unit, how long must you wait before you can place your next bet?

[winkel]

Winkel,

Explain how you want to play it.  For example, if you're playing for just one unit, how long must you wait before you can place your next bet?

I play from the very first spin until a double hit. I reach always a double hit!

now try me or shut up. And stop farthing always the same phrases

[winkel]

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