LETTER TO THE BIG MAN, JOHN SOLITUDE..THE BIG MAN WRITES BACK

[john_solitude]

First of all, I would like to state that I have my own section on this forum, so if there are any other questions, please adress them in the proper section: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/ask-john-solitude/

However, I would like to reply to some of the wild accusations and misinterpretations that have been made in this thread, by one member, who obviously didn't take the time to actually read Roulette Fact and Fiction, my website or my space on this forum.

Readers should also be aware that some members -I'm not talking about this member in question-
can have business reasons to try and discredit the John Solitude Roulette Fact and Fiction website.

Namely because they advocate a strategy of playing which involves purchasing expensive books or systems
(which have been proven they do NOT work in a real casino environment, or people stating otherwise backed out of proper investigation in the presence of a statistician or some member may operate as covert sellers who are only present on these forums only to get in touch with possible future clients -for instance by adressing them personally.

Member states:

He wrote his JS methods in an attempt to make money. His scam involved soliciting donations from people rather than charging out right for his system. He also attempted to make money by trying to sell books via links form his chaotic and difficult to follow website.

INCORRECT AND COMPLETELY RIDICILOUS

The pdf guide 'John Solitude's Roulette Fact and Fiction' is a FREE download:;
it has always been so and is still so today.

There was NEVER money charged for it, although at the time -on Ebay for example,
some people tried to cash in for what has always been a free download on our site.

PROOF

This is the direct link. No donation needed to download.
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/guides/JSRoulette2006.pdf

However, hosting a website COSTS money
(to us, the people running the JS site).

We do pay on an annual basis for the name registration and server space (cost = around 107 € on annual basis).
You can check by going to whois and look up the prices for our domain and server provider).

One could argue it's possible to rent webspace for FREE, but typically this means you have to allow ads
(of which as a webmaster you have only limited control of the content). We chose to NOT do so.
If we would have wanted to make money, we would chosen to do so.

As you can see for yourself on nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be ,
we do NOT allow for advertisement of casino's NOR of system sellers (right banner).

The only ads on our website are from Amazon (which are rather, than making us money, proof that people almost never take or have taken the time to reading a book) and there is a link to Roulette Xtreme (which is a test program for Roulette systems, not a roulette system). We do support Roulette Xtreme because it allows people to run simulations BEFORE they decide to risk their money.

nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/links.html

So, readers who do want to support our initiative can make a donation
(they have NEVER been obliged to do so to download our 125 pg. guide).
Making a donation of 7 $ also included an Excel spreadsheet
allowing you to calculate standard deviation, stats and learn how the calculations are done.
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html#JSExcel


The member in question has obviously NEVER taken the time to read the Roulette Fact and Fiction guide.
Yes, I do know what gamblers fallacy is. Let me adress this one:

People who come to these forums or write to us,
basically always have asked me the same question: which system to play to make money.

If one tells people (as I have told so many times before, even on this forum): roulette is a negative expectancy game, because there is a house-edge, they'll want to take a shot at it anyway.

So the second question is:
if you choose to play roulette anyway, fully accepting the risk you can loose money, which system would you play?

The JSWFA is based on combination probabilitytheory, or in common men terms:
if you place a bet for X amount of spins, how high is the chance your bet will turn out right?

Because the JSWFA actually needs a rare event BEFORE a player starts betting, it reduces the risk a player comes into a casino and is betting for hours on end, without having a break. (which is actually why most people loose a lot of money on gambling: if one is betting for hours on end on is starting to loose track of what one is doing: this is a scientific fact > your mindset is narrowing).

The betting behavior of the JSWFA is trying to make the chance that you'll win the bet as high as possible,
within these limitations:

a) the risk a player takes on roulette is NOT fairly awarded, no matter what the bet is ( = the house-edge)
b) depending on the casino and the table, there is a spread (which is there to protect the house, not the player, because if there was no limit on roulette and a player would have unlimited capital, the game could be beaten, even in the long run)
c) if one is playing on a dealer opererated table, the tips even increase the house-edge (so the chance you'll loose is even higher)

As it is stated in the JSWFA:
we chose to play automated (but still mechanical) roulette for several reasons:

a) less risk of making errors in placing the bets
(same bet button + on some machines the possibility of increasing the bet)
b) on the machines we were playing (French Roulette) at the time the spread was very high
(minimum bet 0.25 € / max bet. 150 €), so we started out with the lowest bet to take maximum advantage of the
spread (= the amount of times we could repeat the beat without running into the upper limit); if we lost the bet we
didn't loose an arm or a leg
c) cutting out the dealer tips

Do I recommend people to play roulette: NO

Do I recommend people, if they want to play roulette anyway to play the JSWFA: YES
Certainly (because it tries to maximise your chances you'll win the bet, still within the limitations you ARE playing a negative expectancy game).[/b]

Personally we played roulette for entertainment and because we found it a challenge to come up with a system that is robust as it can be, within the set of rules that are applied by the house.

Do I recommend people to look into other games if they want to be certain they win money: YES.[/b]

Several people asked me this question before: if you choose to NOT play roulette, but you want to gamble anyway and increase your chances of winning, what game should I play.

I would recommend to learn limit Texas Hold Em poker. This game can be beaten FOR SURE and you'll even have far less problems doing so, than trying to beat roulette.

One of the main reasons many people criticised our website is because it also attacked people who are actually charging LARGE AMOUNTS of money for systems and other strategies of playing on roulette that are as good or as bad as the JSWFA (which is for free).

Read all about them here:

nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/scams.html

And once again: running a website is NOT for free.

Yes, we do accept donations and I can assure you they only serve to keep our website online, we certainly do not make a profit on it.

The member in question probably never went as far as thinking if you allow readers to download a 125 pg. guide for free (without having to make a donation) and you only receive 7 $ donations once in a while (very rarely we receive a higher donation than 7 $), one is certainly NOT in it for the money.

We could have easily charged several 100 $ for the document and spreadsheet but never decided to do so,
because we wanted to make the distribution as high as possible. We have succeeded in this goal and that's the reason that two years later, the John Solitude initiative and the JSWFA still is alive today.

If the member would argue otherwise: I would recommend he writes a 125 pg. guide, distribute it for free,
only allows Amazon ads (because the Google is swamped with system sellers) and a link to Roulette Xtreme,
and you would come to the conclusion, John Solitude is a project of goodwill, rather than making money.

If one wants to know the background of the John Solitude initiative,
you can do on our website.

So, if you do support our initiative and want to keep the website online,
please feel free to make a donation (because in november we do have to pay for the website expenses,
and if the site does not become at least self supportive, it will simply disappear):

And probably... a lot of people who be very happy for that
(for instance because the scammer section on our website is still a needle in their profits).

nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/index.html

[RoulettePlayer]

Hi all,
I just want to follow up on what KFS wrote.  I'm just pointing out a math tool that I find useful.  Binomial Probabilities can be easily calculated on the net.   For anyone that doesn't excel at math or has been out of school for quite a while (I fall into at least one of these categories) may want to try a site like
nolinks://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html

I'm not married to this address, so if  you don't like it, then find another site by doing a yahoo/google search of "binomial probability calculator".  As far as I know, they work basically the same way with the same alpha variables, which I'll try to explain below. 

Here's an example -
Say you wanted to know the probability of 1 dozen showing at least 2 times in 10 spins while playing a 00 wheel.  Input the info as follows:

                                     in my basic terms
n=10                            n is the total spins
k=2                              k is the number of hits or wins that you're looking for
p=12/38                       p is the number of possible winning spaces on the wheel / 37 or 38                         
                                     q - don't worry about the q

result - P: 2 or more out of 10
            0.873736733273106

Hope this helps someone.  RP

[Herb]

JS wrote it in an attempt to make money. His scam involved soliciting donations from people rather than charging out right for his system. He also attempted to make money by trying to sell books via links form his chaotic and difficult to follow website.

The system presented relies heavily on the notion of rare events that become due to hit or catch up.  This is straight up gambler's fallacy and can not work in the long run.   JS's experience with roulette is very limited.  He has at best limited knowledge of the game and maybe two years of playing experience.  He is definitely not an expert in regards to the game.

On this forum there are better systems that are more fun to play. 

-Herb

[JHM]

JS wrote it in an attempt to make money. His scam involved soliciting donations from people rather than charging out right for his system. He also attempted to make money by trying to sell books via links form his chaotic and difficult to follow website.

The system presented relies heavily on gambler's fallacy and can not work in the long run.  JS's experience with roulette is very limited.  He has at best limited knowledge of the game and maybe two years of playing experience.  He is definitely not an expert in regards to the game.

Herb,

Please state why he is scamming while his book has always been free to download? I don't see the connection.

Your free to make a donation. Nobody's is forced to make one, it's out of free will.

[Herb]

I've read the guide.  I've been to the website.  I've said enough.  I've made my point.

[john_solitude]

Herb,

It's now very obvious to me you were only trying to discredit the initiative,
without having actually read the guide, the website or my section on this forum.

I do advise you to do so, before making wild accusations.

You did not come up with a single argument against the message I've written in my message above,
so I won't even bother to discuss it anymore. You've said enough, because there is actually nothing more to be said, is there?

A scammer is someone who charges people outrageous sums of money for systems, strategies or devices which do not work in a real environment (or even advices people to do so).

If scamming is letting readers download a 125 pg. guide FOR FREE -see link above- (no donation required to download the pdf file) and warning them for the risk involved, you and I obviously have a very different definition of what a scammer is.





Readers can check for themselves on my website,
read the guide or my section on this forum, and decide for themselves.

[VLSroulette]

Hello dear John_Solitude.

Our server is open to host your website [highlight]for free[/highlight] with your own FTP account and MYSQL database shall you wish to integrate with our space (you will keep being nolinks.john-solitude.be).

It is currently NOT top notch space as we aren't agressive with the ads, but it may be in the future (namely this month) when there is implemented a new ads model to see if we can afford a Virtual Private Server with guaranteed ram memory and processor cycles out of ads and not a shared server which depends on the other websites' activity for getting faster or slower.

Right now, what we have is yours. Don't worry for the payload at the server, it isn't top notch but it isn't top crappy either We can handle some visits as we currently are.

That is what I wanted to say. Any other fellow roulette publishers who want to use the server for publishing your files, you are more than welcome to join.

Shall we in the future be big enough to host a Dedicated server with hardrives of roulette information, it will be awesome... but for now, let's grow at our own pace and -of course- share the resources we have with the roulette community.

Regards,
Victor

[VLSroulette]

-